TRAFFIC ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

INTRODUCTION

The analysis of traffic flow is the basis for design of transportation system operating strategies, traffic control systems, and certain
physical features of transportation systems. Several issues are involved. These include the interaction of traffic events in space and
time, the analysis if travel times under various conditions, and relationships among traffic flow states such as flow, speed, and density.
A variety of mathematical techniques are used in the analyzing space-time relationships, graphical and mathematical techniques for
analyzing traffic queues and delays, and analysis of transportation networks. Chapter 9 presents techniques for the statistical analysis
of traffic data and models of traffic flow for highways.

SPACE-TIME RELATIONSHIP

Many traffic analysis problems involve the analysis of the motion of vehicles or
traffic states in space and time. Such problems may vary a great deal in
complexity. When such motion takes place along a single linear facility such as
roadway or railway, it can often be represented by a graph known as space- time
diagram. When it occurs in complicated transportation networks, no such simple
approach is possible and satisfactory solutions to space- time problems may not
yet exist.

Space- Time diagrams have distance (or, more accurately, location) as one axis
and time as the other axis. It is a matter of convention as to which axis
represents time and which distance, and there are no firm rules; in what follows,
either time or distance may be represented by the horizontal axis, depending on
the situation.

The figure represents a Simple Space- Time Diagram. The curve A-A represents
the position of a vehicle (or some other event) at all times between t1 and t2.
Such a curve is known as a Trajectory. In cases in which distance is the vertical axis, the slope of the trajectory is the speed of the
vehicle; in cases in which distance is the horizontal axis, the reciprocal of speed (sometimes known as rate of travel) is represented by
the slope.

Space- time diagrams are used in several different ways. Where the problems involved are simple enough, they may be used to
provide direct graphical solutions. In more complicated cases, they may be used as an aid in developing analytical solutions to control
problems, simulation models and theoretical models of traffic flow.

DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS

Most space-time problems are complicated enough that it is not efficient to use graphical methods for routine solutions. In this case,
space-time diagrams are often used to derive analytical relationships, which may then be used to produce a large number of solutions
quickly and accurately. An example of this type of use of space-time diagrams is the derivation of basic relationships used in the
analysis of capacity for airport runways used for landings only.

Runway capacity is largely a function of the air traffic rules used by the air traffic control system.
FUNDAMENTAL RULE: When flying under certain minimum conditions, all aircraft at a given elevation must maintain certain
minimum longitudinal distance separations.
Minimum distance separation is 3 nautical miles.
COMMON APPROACH PATH path from the entry gate to the runway threshold.
CAPACITY OF A RUNWAY is the max number of aircraft it can handle per unit time (say, per hour). This, in turn, is the
reciprocal of the average time separation between aircraft at the runway threshold.

Case I

Time separation at runway threshold

vi vj

Where: tij=time separation between the two aircraft

=minimum distance separation
vj =speed of the trailing aircraft
 Case II

Time separation at runway threshold

vi > vj

1 1
= + ( )

Where: vj = speed of the leading aircraft

= length of the common approach path

DEVELOPMENT OF SIMULATION MODELS

To solve even more complicated problems, space-time diagrams may be used to develop simulation models. Such models represent
the behaviour of a system in a step-by-step manner. It is usually necessary to analyze both what is happening at the same location
over time and what is happening at different locations at the same time.

Development of a graphical solution is useful in determining the proper order of calculations to move from what is known to what is
unknown, and can be used as a basis for developing a computer model of the behaviour of the system.

A simple example is that of the block signal control system for a rail line.
BLOCK SIGNAL CONTROL SYSTEMS intended to provide protection for trains against collisions and other hazards such
as broken rails.
BLOCKS electrically insulated sections of track.
OCCUPIED whether a train is in particular block
SIGNAL SYSTEM used to warn or control trains approaching the occupied block. Most commonly involve a set of colored
lights along the track or in the locomotive operators signals.
ASPECTS meaningful combinations of signal lights.

TWO-BLOCK, THREE-ASPECT SYSTEM

It is the simplest system. Signal lights are either red, yellow, or

green. A red signal means stop and proceed at some restricted
speed (usually less than 7.5 km/h) prepared to stop behind the
train ahead, a yellow signal means reduce speed and be
prepared to stop at the next signal, and a green signal means
to proceed at full speed.

Because it would be dangerous to have a train entering an

occupied block except after stopping, in this simplest system
blocks must be at least as long as the maximum stopping
distance of the trains. Figure a

THREE-BLOCK, THREE-ASPECT SYSTEM

It is in which an extra block is added. This is common on many

subway lines. It permits a simple and reliable automatic train
stop device to be activated at the second red signal behind a
train, activating the brakes if the driver should fail to do so. The
distance between following trains is increased, however, as
can be seen from the Figure b, and capacity is reduced.

Figure b
THREE-BLOCK, FOUR-ASPECT SYSTEM

It can be devised by using double lights. In this case red-red

and green-green signals replace the red and green signals of
the simpler systems, and there are two intermediate levels of
restricted speed.

GREEN-YELLOW signal - to approach the next signal at

medium speed
RED-YELLOW signal - prepare to stop

Two blocks corresponds to the maximum stopping distance

and capacity is increased. Figure

Since speed control becomes more precise as the number of aspects increases, the size of the blocks can be decreased. This, in turn,
allows closer train spacing and greater line capacity. Hence there is a trade-off between the complexity of the control system and its
effectiveness. Simulation of the system is useful in order to determine how a proposed signal system will affect the spacing of trains
under a variety of assumptions as to their speed patterns.

NONTRAJECTORY SPACE-TIME DIAGRAMS

Space-time diagrams may be used to display information about traffic states
(such as speed, flow rates, or densities) as well as vehicle trajectories. The
most common way of displaying traffic-state information in a space-time format
is by means of contour diagrams. In these, contours are used to isolate
space-time regions with similar traffic-state values.

QUEUING ANALYSIS

A second major issue in analysis of traffic systems is the analysis of travel

times and delays. Normally travel time will be thought of as the time
required to cover a fixed distance, and will be of course the reciprocal
average speed at which that distance is covered.

QUEUING SYSTEM SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM

Delay is more subtle concept. It may be defined as the difference between the actual travel time on a given segment of a transportation
system and some ideal travel time for the segment. This raises the obvious question of what ideal travel time should be used in
measuring delay.

QUEUING THEORY FUNDAMENTALS

The fundamentals of queuing theory may best be introduced by means of an example. Consider an airport runway being used for
takeoffs only. Air traffic rules state that there can be only one aircraft on the runway at a time. Each aircraft spends abou t the same
amount of time on the runway, so that a runway can process takeoffs at a fairly constant rate. In queuing theory jargon, the runway
would be the server, and the maximum rate, at which it can process takeoffs, under given conditions, would be called its service rate.
Arrivals of aircraft waiting to take off are not constant. The step function is called arrival function, A(t).

Now suppose that each aircraft takes a fixed amount of time to clear the runway. Given this service time, it is possible to plot a
departure function D*(t), which shows when each aircraft clears the runway. The departure function D(t) is usually of more interest that
D*(t), since the takeoff run itself is a necessary part of the use of the runway, and should not be considered queuing delay.

The difference between A(t) and D(t) represents aircraft which have arrived at the runway but have not begun(or completed) their
takeoffs. These aircraft waiting to be served are said to be in queue, and the line of aircraft waiting to be served is called a Queue.
It is possible to determine a number of interesting things:

The number of customers in queue at any given time, or queue length.

The delay to each customer, assuming the order of service is the same as the order of arrival.
The summation of delay to all customers.
Given the density of the queue, the physical length of the queue, or the amount of space required for its storage.

In many applications it is appropriate to approximate the step functions A(t) and D(t), with smooth curves, and to ignore the finite
service time if indeed, a finite service time even exists. In other cases, it is more convenient to approximate A(t) and D(t) with stepwise
linear functions.

Queuing diagrams have several important properties. It is very important that students understand these properties and be able to
apply them to actual queuing problems. These are:

The slope of D(t) is the departure rate; the slope of A(t) is the arrived rate.
The departure rate cannot exceed the service rate or capacity of the server. It may be less.
Cumulative departures can never exceed cumulative arrivals. D(t) can never be above A(t) in the queuing diagram.
When a queue is present, the departure rate will equal the service rate. When no queue is present, the departure rate will
equal the arrival rate. The queue first forms when the arrival rate first exceeds the service rate.

QUEUE DISCIPLINE

So far, no explicit consideration has been given to the relationship between the order in which customers arrive demanding service and
the order in which they are served. This relationship is referred to as the queue discipline. The most common queue discipline
encountered in transportation applications is first-in, first-out, or FIFO, in which customers are served in the order in which they arrive.
Other disciplines are possible. One which has gotten considerable attention in queuing theory literature, but is rare in transportation
applications, is last-in, last-out, or LIFO, in which the most recent arrival is always served next. Of more importance in transportation
applications are random service, in which there is no relationship between the order of arrivals and the order of service, and priority
service, in which certain classes of customers are served ahead of others.

Although queue length and total delay are the same for all queue disciplines, given the same arrival and departure functions, delays to
individual customers are not the same in all queue disciplines. In particular, the delay to an individual customer can be determined by
measuring the horizontal distance on the diagram between A(t) and D(t) only if the queue discipline is FIFO.

QUEUING THEORY

Queuing Theory is the mathematics of waiting lines. It is extremely useful in predicting and evaluating system performance. It has been
used for operations research, manufacturing and system analysis.

Application of Queuing Theory

Traffic Control
Airport Traffic, Airline ticket sales

Characteristic of Queuing Systems

Costumer refers to anything that arrives at a facility and requires service, e.g., people, machines, truck (cars).
Server refers to any resource that provides the requested service, e.g., repairpersons, retrieval machines, runways at
airport.

Queuing Example:
SYSTEM CUSTOMERS SERVER
Reception Desk People Receptionist
Hospital Patient Nurses
Airport Airplanes Runway
Road Network Cars Traffic Light
Grocery Shoppers Checkout

Components of a Queuing System:

Arrival Process Service

Queue or Waiting Line Exit
 Characteristics:

Arrival Waiting Line Service

1. Size of the population
1. Service Design
2. Behavior of Arrivals 1. Limited vs. Unlimited
2. Statistical Distribution of
3. Statistical Distribution of 2. Queue Discipline
Service
the Arrival

Arrival Process: Queue Structure

According to source First-come-first-served (FCFS)
According to Time Last-come-first-served (LCFS)
According to Numbers Service-in-random-order (SIRO)
Priority Service

Service System

SINGLE SERVICE SYSTEM

MULTIPLE, PARALLEL SERVER, SINGLE QUEUE MODEL

MULTIPLE, PARALLEL FACILITIES WITH MULTIPLE QUEUES MODEL

SERVICE FACILITIES IN A SERIES

STOCHASTIC QUEUING MODELS

Queuing Models are known as deterministic queuing models. They are appropriate for many transportation applications because of
the prevalence of distinct traffic peaks in which the capacities of servers are exceeded on a regular basis.

Queuing models can be represented using

Kendall's notation: Some standard notations for distributions (A or B)
A/B/S/K/N/D are:
where: M for a Markovian (poisson, exponential)
A is the interarrival time distribution distribution
B is the service time distribution E for an Erlang distribution with phases
S is the number of servers D for degenerate (or deterministic) distribution
K is the system capacity (constant)
N is the calling population G for general distribution (arbitrary)
D is the service discipline assumed PH for a phase-type distribution

M / D / 1 Queue Model
An M/D/1 queue represents the queue length in a system having a single server, where arrivals are determined by a Poisson
process and job service times are fixed (deterministic). Features of interest for stochastic queuing systems include the average
queue length Q, the average waiting time w, and the average total delay time spent in the system (queue waiting time plus
service time) t.

Average Queue Length

Average Waiting Time

Average Total Delay time spent

M / M / 1 Queue Model
Another commonly encountered stochastic queuing model, in which both arrivals and service times are exponentially
distributed and there is one channel. For the M / M / 1 model, the average queue length, waiting time, and total delay are given
by:

Average Queue Length

Average Waiting Time

Average Total Delay time spent

TRANSPORTATION APPLICATIONS OF QUEUING THEORY

Queuing theory may be used for analyze a wide variety of transportation-related problems. For airports, queuing theory can be
used to model the operation of runways, airspace on runway approaches, baggage handling systems, ticketing and check-in
operations, security checkpoints, and departure lounges.

For highways, queuing theory can be used to analyze the operation of toll booths: the effects of capacity changes due to
geometrics; the effects of temporary capacity changes due to incidents (such as accidents); the effects of traffic signals and other
control devices; and the effect of traffic disruptions caused by railroad grade crossings, drawbridges, and the like.

For mass transit systems, queuing theory can be used to analyze the use of ticket windows or ticket dispensing machines, the
operation of fare gates, and platform capacities.
 For railroads, queuing theory can be used to analyze yard operations. For water transportation, it can be used to analyze the
operation of locks and port operations. For all types of freight transportation, queuing theory can be used to analyze loading and
unloading operations. Any situation in which either demand or capacity may change over time may be suitable for analysis by
queuing theory.

Figures a through d illustrate special situations frequently encountered in transportation queuing analysis. Figure a illustrates the
case in which a server opens after arrivals begin. An example of this situation is an airport departure lounge. Figure b illustrates the
case which the arrival rate temporarily exceeds a constant service rate. This situation is typical of fixed bottlenecks in freeway
systems, airport runways, and other cases in which there are definite traffic peaks and limited capacity. Figure c illustrates the case
in which a service rate varies. Examples of this situation are freeway incidents, ramp meters, and toll booth operations in which the
number of booths in service varies with time. The extreme example of carrying service rate is that in which a server is temporarily
shut down, as illustrated by Figure d. Examples of this situation are railroad crossings, lift or swing bridges, and traffic signals

Figure a Figure b
Server opens after arrivals begin. Arrival rate temporarily exceeds a constant service rate.

Figure c Figure d
Service rate varies. Server temporarily shut down.

Example problem 1:
Morning peak traffic upstream of a toll booth is given below. The toll plaza consists of three booths, each of which can handle an
average of one vehicle every 6s. Using a queuing diagram, determine the maximum queue, the longest delay to an individual
vehicle, and the total delay.

Time period 10-min. Volume Cumulative Volume

7:00 7:10 200 200

7:10-7:20 400 600

7:20-7:30 500 1,100

7:30-7:40 250 1,350

7:40-7:50 200 1,550

7:50-8:00 150 1,700

 Service rate:
1 60
(3 ) (10 ) = 30010
6

Comparing 10-min arrival rates with the service rate, queue begins at 7:10.

Queing diagram:

Maximum queue: 300 vehicles at 7:30 (from diagram).

Maximum delay to individual vehicle: 10 min (from diagram)

Total delay:
Break area between A(t) and D(t) into triangles and trapezoids:
1/2 (100)(10) + 1/2 (100 + 300)(10) + 1/2 (300 + 250)(10)
+ 1/2 (250 + 150)(10) + 1/2 (150)(10)
= 500 + 2,000 + 2,750 + 2,000 + 750
= 8,000 veh-min or 133.3 veh-h

Example problem 2:
A ramp meter operates during morning peak period. Ramp meter cycles vary with time as shown in the table below. The metering
scheme allows one vehicle per cycle to pass the signal. The table below gives the number of vehicle demanding service on the
ramp during particular time intervals, the cumulative demand for the ramp for the morning peak, and the ramp meter cycle for each
interval. Using a queuing diagram, determine the maximum queue, the maximum delay to any vehicle, and the total delay.

Time period 15-min volume Cumulative Volume Meter cycle, s

6:30-6:45 75 75 6
6:45-7:00 100 175 10
7:00-7:15 125 300 12
7:15-7:30 110 410 12
7:30-7:45 80 490 10
7:45-8:00 65 555 6

Service rates:

1 60 75
( )( ) (15) =
12 15

1 60 90
( )( ) (15) =
10 15

1 60 150
( )( ) (15) =
6 15

Comparing 15-min arrival rates with service rates, queue begins at 6:45.
 Queuing diagram:

Maximum queue: 95 vehicles at 7:30 (from diagram).

Maximum delay to individual vehicle: 15.5 min (from diagram)

Total delay:
Break area between A(t) and D(t) into triangles and trapezoids:
1/2 (10)(15) + 1/2 (60 + 10)(15) + 1/2 (60 + 95)(15)
+ 1/2 (95 + 85)(15) + 1/2 (85)(15)
= 75 + 525+ 1,162.5 + 1,350 + 637.5
= 3,750 veh-min or 62.5 veh-h

Example problem 3:
Vehicles arrive at a stop sign at an average rate of 300 per hour. Average waiting time at the stop sign is 10 s per vehicle. If both
arrivals and departures are exponentially distributed, what are the average queue length and the average delay per vehicle?
Queue is an M/M/1 queue

= 300 veh/h
= (1veh/10s)(3600s/h) = 360veh/h
= 300/360 = 0.833
Q = (0.833)^2/(1-0.833) = 4.017 veh
w = 300/360(360-300) = 0.014 veh = 0.83min

Queue Density, Storage, and Spillback

In the study of highway traffic, the problem is often one of locating queues and thus bottlenecks in the system. Since it is easy to
estimate density by direct surveillance, observation of high densities is often used to spot bottlenecks. Actual measurement of density is
less practical, however, because it usually involves taking aerial photographs and counting the number of vehicles in a section of
roadway by hand. Where automatic data collection systems are available, a measure known as occupancy (the fraction of time vehicles
are over the detector) is often used as a substitute for density.
A second reason that queue density is of interest is that it can be used to determine the physical length of the queue, and
hence, the amount of space that must be provided to store it. As a general rule, it is desirable to avoid situations in which the queue
from a bottleneck blocks traffic no bound for that bottleneck. In this case the queue is said to spill back into the upstream section.

NETWORK ANALYSIS

Actual traffic systems usually consist of facilities in which there are several possible paths that can be followed between two points.

Network - consist of a set of nodes connected by links.

Nodes may be either origins or destination of trips or decision points.
Points at which transportation facilities meet.

Links elements in the network which have cost.

are transportation facilities such as road, sidewalk, or railway
segments.

Costs Usually include travel time, travel distance, money costs or

some sort of weighted sum of several cost elements.
There are two network analysis problems of particular interest in transportation.
1. Traffic Assignment Problem which consists of predicting traffic volumes on each link in a network. (This problem will be
discussed further in Chapter 13.)
2. Minimum cost path determination of the minimum length of travel time (generally) from a certain origin to a certain
destination. Most efficient solution is Dijkstras algorithm.

Example network

Minimum path algorithm, Step 1

Minimum path algorithm, Step 4

Minimum path algorithm, Step 2 Minimum path algorithm, Step 5

Minimum path algorithm, Step 3

Minimum path algorithm, Step 6

The minimum path from node A to node F is found by tracing the last-node portion of the label back from node F to node A. The path (in
reverse order) is found to be F-C-B-E-D-A
 - Network cannot be represented by means of diagram unless to the extent if the information contained in the network diagram
is stored in the form of two -dimensional array.
- Nodes are numbered and links are identified by the nodes they connect.
Example:

- Links may be either one-way or two-way. The two- way of the link-cost ij equals to that link ji.

- Negative numbers are known as flag that can be identified by the computer as fictitious. These are also called as non- existing
link.
- The number of node just labeled is used as subscript to identify column (or row) in the link-cost array. As in the manual
version, existing tentative labels are replaced only if the new cost is less than the existing value.

SUMMARY
Important traffic analysis techniques include analysis of space-time relationships, analysis of queuing, and network analysis. Space-
time diagrams may be used to develop direct graphical solutions for simple problems, and analytical solutions or simulation models for
more complicated ones. Also, non trajectory space time displays may be used for such purposes as locating freeway queues. Queuing
analysis is used to qualify delays. Deterministic queuing problems are solved by means of queuing diagrams; solutions to stochastic
queuing problems involving various assumptions as to distributions of the arrivals and departures exist in the form of analytical
formulas. Network models are used to analyze travel times where there is more than one possible path between the ultimate origin and
destination of a trip. Efficient algorithms exist to solve for the minimum cost path where link costs are independent of flows.