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World Energy

Trilemma Index | 2016

BENCHMARKING THE
SUSTAINABILITY OF
NATIONAL ENERGY
SYSTEMS

In Partnership with OLIVER WYMAN


ABOUT THE WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL ABOUT THE ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX
The World Energy Council is the principal The World Energy Councils definition of
impartial network of energy leaders and energy sustainability is based on three core
practitioners promoting an affordable, dimensions: energy security, energy
stable and environmentally sensitive energy equity, and environmental sustainability.
system for the greatest benefit of all. Balancing these three goals constitutes a
trilemma and is the basis for prosperity
Formed in 1923, the Council is the UN- and competitiveness of individual countries.
accredited global energy body,
representing the entire energy spectrum, The World Energy Trilemma Index,
with over 3,000 member organisations in prepared annually by the World Energy
over 90 countries, drawn from Council in partnership with global
governments, private and state consultancy Oliver Wyman, along with
corporations, academia, NGOs and energy the Global Risk Centre of its parent
stakeholders. We inform global, regional Marsh & McLennan Companies since 2010,
and national energy strategies by hosting is a comparative ranking of 125 countries
high-level events including the World energy systems. It provides an assessment
Energy Congress and publishing of a countrys ability to balance the
authoritative studies, and work through our trade-offs between the three trilemma
extensive member network to facilitate the dimensions.
worlds energy policy dialogue.
Access the complete Index results and use
Further details at www.worldenergy.org the interactive Trilemma Index tool and its
and @WECouncil pathway calculator to find out more about
countries trilemma performance and what it
takes to build a sustainable energy system:
www.worldenergy.com/data.

Produced in partnership with


OLIVER WYMAN
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

INTRODUCTION 5
About the annual Energy Trilemma Index 6
Overview of the 2016 Energy Trilemma Index ranking and balance score 8
Placing countries on the Index watch list 12
An energy sector in transition: the 2016 Energy Trilemma Index in context 17

REGIONAL PROFILES 20
Asia 23
Europe 27
Latin America and the Carribean 27
North Africa and Middle East 33
North America 36
Sub-Saharan Africa 40

COUNTRY PROFILES 44

APPENDIX: INDEX METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW 138

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 138
WORLD ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX 2016: COUNTRY PERFORMANCE

REGIONAL OVERVIEWS Top 25% 25% 50% 50% 75% Lower 25% n/a

NORTH AMERICA ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND 


EUROPE
NORTH AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND  SUB-SAHARAN
STRUGGLES WITH AGEING MANAGING THE AND THE CARIBBEAN DECREASING IMPORT NORTH AFRICA AFRICA
INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENERGY TRANSITION BUILDING RESILIENCE DEPENDENCE INTHE FACE DIVERSIFYING AWAY UNLOCKING RESOURCES
EXTREME WEATHER AND ENERGY EQUITY OF GROWING DEMAND FROM OIL AND GAS AND RENEWABLES POTENTIAL
With 14% of total global greenhouse gas Although European countries lead the The Latin America and Caribbean region Asia faces the challenge of facilitating The main challenges for the Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa is challenged by the
emissions stemming from North America, 2016Index, the region still faces the must work on improving and maintaining sustainable growth of its highly energy- and North Africa (MENA) are high energy worlds lowest levels of energy access
the region must improve environmental challenge of managing the energy security its energy security by increasing the energy intensive, emerging economies while intensity, greenhouse gas emissions, and commercial energy use, despite a
sustainability and update ageing energy and affordability risks resulting from the systems resilience to extreme weather managing increasing energy demand and and useof finite fossil fuel reserves. rich endowment in resources and high
infrastructure to strengthen resilience to energy transition. events and improving energy equity. growing energy import dependence. Combined with water scarcity concerns, renewables potential.
emerging risks, including extreme weather To maintain a strong Trilemma performance, Diversifying the energy supply with low- Improvements on all three trilemma these challenges, if not addressed, could Stable and widely accessible energy
events and cyber attacks. policymakers must focus on energy carbon sources such as solar a nd wind and dimensions are possible by increasing the threaten the regions energy security and supply could act as a catalyst for regional
Environmental sustainability is expected market design, regional markets, demand increasing regional interconnection will be use of renewable energy sources, and by environmental sustainability. economic development. To unlock the
to improve significantly due to emission management, and designing an effective key to securing reliable supply. However, decreasing import dependence through Many MENA countries are focused on regions resource potential and meet future
reduction measures such as the carbon price to successfully manage the large-scale investments are required reliable trade relationships and improved improving energy efficiency and diversifying energy demand, the region must attract
development of carbon capture, usage challenging energy transition. to finance the development of resilient infrastructure. their economies and energy mixes through investment, build institutional capacity and
and storage technologies, and further energyinfrastructure. an increased use of solar and nuclear power. improve its grid and off-grid energy supply.
diversification of the energy mix. Significant changes to the regions trilemma
performance are likely to show towards the
WO R2020s
LD ENand 2040s.
ERGY CO U N CIL | PERS PEC TI V E S
2016 World Energy Council, Oliver Wyman. Access the data via www.worldenergy.org/data
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The World Energy Councils definition of energy sustainability is based on three core
dimensions: energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. The
Energy Trilemma Index ranks countries energy performance around the world and
provides a framework to benchmark progress.

The 2016 Energy Trilemma Index reveals signs of progress on all dimensions of the energy
trilemma. Thirteen of the 125 countries assessed achieve a triple-A score. Efforts to
increase resource productivity and manage energy demand growth will be key in ensuring a
balanced energy trilemma.

Among the countries included in the Index, access to electricity and clean cooking have
both increased by 5% to 85% and 74% since 2000. Meanwhile, cleaner forms of energy are
being used to support energy access and economic growth, with renewables making up
9.7% of total primary energy consumption in 2015. A more diversified and low-carbon
energy mix will help to improve energy security and environmental sustainability but its
positive effects may be stifled by rising energy consumption, which is predicted to increase
by up to 46% by 2060.

This year Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden top the Index, with Denmark also achieving
the highest score for energy security. While not in the top 10 overall, Luxembourg maintains
its position for most equitable (affordable and accessible) and the Philippines is leading the
way on the environmental sustainability dimension. In Latin America, Uruguay ranks the
highest, while in the Middle East, Israel outperforms its regional peers. In Sub-Saharan
Africa, Mauritius performs best, and in Asia, New Zealand remains at the top of the regional
leader board.

FIGURE 1: TOP 10 COUNTRIES IN THE ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX 2016

Source: World Energy Council/Oliver Wyman, 2016

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R K I N G T H E S U S T AI N A B I L I T Y O F N AT I O N AL
A ENERGY SYSTEMS

Inttrodu
ucttion
n

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WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

ABOUT THE ANNUAL ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX


The World Energy Councils definition of energy sustainability is based on three core
dimensions energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. Taken
together, they constitute a trilemma, and achieving high performance on all three entails
complex interwoven links between public and private actors, governments and regulators,
economic and social factors, national resources, environmental concerns, and individual
behaviours.

FIGURE 2: THE THREE DIMENSIONS OF THE ENERGY TRILEMMA

Source: World Energy Council/Oliver Wyman, 2016

The Energy Trilemma Index quantifies the energy trilemma and comparatively ranks 125
countries in terms of their ability to provide a secure, affordable, and environmentally
sustainable energy system. In addition, countries are awarded a balance score that
highlights how well the country manages the trade-offs between the three energy trilemma
dimensions and identifies top performing countries with a triple-A score.

The Index rankings are based on a range of data sets that capture both energy
performance and the context of that energy performance. Energy performance indicators
consider supply and demand, the affordability of and access to energy, and the
environmental impact of a countrys energy production and use. The contextual indicators
consider the broader circumstances of energy performance including a countrys ability to
provide coherent, predictable and stable policy and regulatory frameworks, initiate
research, development and demonstration (RD&D) and innovation, and attract investment.

Prepared annually by the World Energy Council in partnership with global consultancy
Oliver Wyman, along with the Global Risk Centre of its parent Marsh & McLennan
Companies since 2010, the Index methodology was updated and revised in 2016 to capture

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the changing energy landscape. The methodology maintains the focus on the three energy
trilemma dimensions but is enhanced by three main changes. Firstly, the revised
methodology broadens the scope of indicators covered to provide a more inclusive ranking
of the energy sector with a greater focus on the diversity of energy supply. Secondly, the
assessment of energy equity is enhanced by including measures for the quality of supply
and affordability of a wider number of energy resources, including household electricity,
natural gas and diesel costs. Finally, the revised Index includes a consideration of the
resilience of a countrys energy system with indicators for energy storage and the ability of
a country to prepare for and repair energy infrastructure following shocks.

Included in this Index report are:

2016 Energy Trilemma Index rankings and balance scores

2016 watch list

Regional profiles by key geographies

Energy Trilemma profiles for World Energy Council member countries1

As countries have unique resource endowments, policy goals and challenges, the absolute
rank of a country may be less meaningful than its relative performance versus its peers. To
support such analysis, the Index report provides data to generate regional or economic
peer group comparisons. For the deeper Index analysis, countries were organised in four
economic groups:

Group I: GDP per capita greater than US$33,500

Group II: GDP per capita between US$14,300 and US$33,500

Group III: GDP per capita between US$6,000 and US$14,300

Group IV: GDP per capita lower than US$6,000.

Trends, and the balance within the three dimensions, also provide valuable information in
helping countries address their energy trilemma. Decision makers in both the public and
private sectors are encouraged to look at trends in performance over the years, particularly
in each dimension, and to compare their countries against peer groups including regional
or GDP group peers.

To support decision makers, the World Energy Council and Oliver Wyman have developed
an interactive online tool that allows users to view Index results and compare countries

1
The World Energy Trilemma Index report only features country profiles for the World Energy
Councils member countries for which sufficient data is available.

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WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

performance against other countries. The pathway calculator allows users to identify what it
takes to improve the energy trilemma performance. The tool can be accessed at:
www.worldenergy.org/data.

Taken as a whole, the World Energy Trilemma Index is a unique and unparalleled resource
and guide for policymakers seeking to develop solutions for sustainable energy systems
and business leaders to support investment decisions.

OVERVIEW OF THE 2016 ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX


RANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE
This years top 10 ranked countries are all European, except New Zealand, and are led by
Denmark at rank 1. Eight of the top 10 achieve a triple-A score. This reinforces that (a)
countries must perform well across all trilemma dimensions to reach the top of the leader
board and (b) it is possible to develop an energy system in which policies work well
together to balance the trade-offs among energy security, energy equity, and environmental
sustainability. This is demonstrated, for example, through Europes long-term, balanced
energy policy, particularly the European Unions energy and climate policies to 2020, which
have contributed to the regions success on the trilemma.

FIGURE 3: TOP 10 ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX PERFORMERS OVERALL


AND PER DIMENSION

Source: World Energy Council/Oliver Wyman, 2016

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However, the complex trade-offs that are inherent in energy policymaking, as well as
certain geographic limitations to achieving a trilemma balance, become evident when
analysing countries that excel in one dimension but struggle to achieve a balance.

Luxembourg, for example, which receives the top score in energy equity, ranks 122nd in
energy security and 103rd in environmental sustainability due to its small geographic area
and resulting limitations on the availability and diversity of energy resources and generation
capacity. Countries like Luxembourg will therefore have to redouble their efforts to find
solutions tailored to address their specific situation and weaknesses, such as regional
integration as a path to greater energy security, as typical solutions, which may apply to
larger, resource-endowed countries, are unlikely to succeed here.

Conversely, the top-10 in environmental sustainability is dominated by states that are able
to take advantage of their renewable energy potential such as the Philippines, Iceland and
Colombia, which all have high geothermal or hydropower capacities. A significant challenge
to these countries, however, is to avoid over-reliance on one single energy source, which
could potentially hamper the resilience of the energy system and with that energy security.
The top-10 in environmental sustainability moreover shows that resource availability is not
the only pre-requisite to achieve top scores for environmental sustainability. Successfully
harnessing the renewables potential also requires a sound institutional framework that
facilitates research and coherent policymaking and implementation.

An analysis of selected key metrics used in this index shows that globally, there are signals
that countries are building more sustainable energy systems by concurrently addressing
energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability challenges.

Among the countries included in the Index, access to electricity and clean cooking have
both increased by 5% to 85% and 74% respectively since 2000. At the same time, global
CO2 intensity has been decreasing from 0.33 tCO2/US$ in 2000 to 0.27 tCO2/US$ in 2014.
Together these figures point towards a global upward trend with regards to energy equity
and environmental performance, where access to energy is improving at the same time as
cleaner forms of energy are being used to support economic growth.

In addition, the share of renewables in total primary energy consumption has increased
from 6.8% in 2005 to 9.7% in 2015. In this regard, the Index regional profiles signal a
positive trend towards greater diversification of energy sources, often through the
exploitation of renewable energy generation potential.

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2016 ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX


AND BALANCE SCORES

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Oil-producing states, for example, are increasingly exploring or actively enhancing solar
power generation to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. Congruently, large developing
states in Asia are working on decreasing their import dependence through an increase in
renewable energy sources.

However, while a more diversified energy mix will help to improve energy security, its
positive effects may be stifled by the global increase in energy consumption. Total primary
energy consumption has been increasing from 2.2 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 2.4 quadrillion
Btu in 2012. Globally, efforts to increase resource productivity and manage energy demand
growth will be key in ensuring a balanced energy trilemma going forward.

PLACING COUNTRIES ON THE INDEX WATCH LIST


The watch list seeks to identify countries that are likely to experience significant changes
positive or negative in their Trilemma Index performance in the near future. Due to
constraints on the collection, processing, and dissemination of data, the goal of the watch
list is to reflect developments in a countrys energy sector that are currently ongoing but are
not yet captured in the Index.

TABLE 1: 2016 ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX POSITIVE WATCH LIST

Country Rank Score Developments to watch

Chile 38 BBB Rapid growth of solar energy production


Planned infrastructure improvements

United Arab 43 BAD First nuclear power plant to come online in 2017
Emirates Green growth strategy
Phasing out of gas and electricity subsidies

Ecuador 50 BBC Rapid expansion of hydroelectric power sector

Mexico 52 BBB Liberalisation of oil and gas markets


Transition to low-carbon economy

Philippines 61 BCA Energy Reform Plan to strengthen all three


trilemma dimensions
Government is exploring the possibility of nuclear
power generation

Bolivia 100 CCD Expansion of export capacity


Stepping up efforts to explore new gas resources
and attract investment

Source: World Energy Council/Oliver Wyman, 2016

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Positive watch list


The following countries remain on the Councils positive watch list (see Table 1):

Even though the United Arab Emirates (rank 43, BAD) is well endowed with oil
and natural gas reserves, the country is making major investments in low-carbon
energy solutions. This includes the construction of the Barakah nuclear power plant,
the first part of which is to come online in 2017.2 The UAEs first green growth plan
sets further targets for demand reduction, energy efficiency, and renewable energy,
including the construction of a 1 GW solar park.3 The elimination of subsidies for
petrol and diesel from August 2015, as well as plans to further eliminate subsidies
on electricity and gas are expected to rationalise fuel consumption, protect natural
resources and the environment, and support state finances.4 These developments
have the potential to improve the UAEs performance in the energy security and
environmental sustainability dimensions but may reduce energy equity scores.

Mexico (rank 52, BBB) continues to pursue the liberalisation of its energy market,
most recently publishing a plan to develop a fully competitive natural gas market by
2018.5 New market rules further aim to promote energy efficiency and set a target of
achieving 35% clean energy by 2024.6 These two transitions, from a monopolistic
structure to a competitive market scheme and from a high-carbon to a low-carbon
economy, are proving to be challenging, especially as improvement and expansion
of the countrys infrastructure is still needed.7 However, the countrys overall energy
trilemma performance is expected to improve as the reforms continue to be
implemented.

The Philippines (rank 61, BCA) has recently introduced the Philippine Energy
Reform Plan (PEP) 20122030, which commits the country to strengthening all
three dimensions of the Energy Trilemma. Comprising over 30% of the energy mix,
most of the countrys renewable energy is currently generated through geothermal
and hydropower, and investment in wind and solar energy could help to further
increase the share of renewables in the energy mix and enhance energy security.8
In further pursuit of this end, the country has most recently started exploring the
option of generating nuclear power.9

2
Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC): About Our Nuclear Plants (www.enec.gov.ae/)
3
Beeantna: Building Inclusive Green Economies: The UAE approach, www.beeatna.ae
4
Carpenter C and Khan S, 2015: U.A.E. Removes Fuel Subsidy as Oil Drop Hurts Arab
Economies (Bloomberg, 22 July 2015); Kane F, 2016: UAE to Cut Remaining Energy Subsidies,
Minister Says (The National, 23 January 2016)
5
King and Spalding, 2016: Client Alert: Development of competitive natural gas market in
Mexico
6
Dezem V, 2016: Mexico Sets National target of 5% Renewable Energy by 2018 (Bloomberg,
31 March 2016)
7
Clemente J, 2016: Mexicos Ever Growing Natural Gas Market (Forbes, 02 July 2016)
8
Tan Hui Ann C, 2016: The Philippines Renewable Energy Sector is Booming (and It Could Get
Bigger) (CNBC, 09 August 2016)
9
Cruz E, 2016: Philippines May Open Mothballed Marcos-era Nuclear Power Plant (Reuters,
30 August 2016); Republic of the Philippines Department of Energy, 2016: Philippines to Host
Nuclear Energy Conference, www.doe.gov.ph

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The following countries have been added to the Councils positive watch list in 2016
(see Table 1):

Chile (rank 38, BBB) made headlines in June as its high supply of solar energy led
to a drop in consumer prices to zero in certain areas on several occasions this
year.10 While this exemplifies Chiles role as the largest producer of renewable
energy in South America, it also illustrates serious systemic difficulties, as continued
oversupply will be detrimental to investment. The main challenge faced by Chile is
thus to expand the capacity of its infrastructure and adapt to the intermittency of
solar and wind power to keep up with its rapid growth in renewable energy
production. In particular, the northern and southern electricity grids of the country
need to be connected for a more effective distribution. A project to do just that is
underway and expected to be completed by 2017. If successful, Chiles renewable
energy expansion could strengthen all three trilemma dimensions in the country.

Ecuador (rank 50, BBC) is undergoing a major shift towards renewable energy,
with eight new hydroelectric power plants to come online in the period 20152017.
A total of 93% of the countrys energy supply is currently coming from hydropower.
This development, if accompanied by a supportive fossil fuel infrastructure and
improvements to the supply network, has the potential to significantly strengthen
Ecuadors performance across all dimensions of the Trilemma.

Following the 2006 nationalisation of Bolivias (rank 100, CCD) oil and gas sector,
the country now plans to significantly increase its export capacity to become the
Energy Heart of South America.11 To achieve this, Bolivia plans to triple its energy
supply by 2020. This will entail the challenges of stepping up exploration efforts,
improving supply infrastructure, and attracting new investment. Considering
Bolivias vast gas resources, this project could add significantly to the equity of
access and energy security dimensions of the trilemma in Bolivia as well as the
entire region.

10
Dezem V and Quiroga J, 2016: Chile Has So much Solar Energy Its giving It Away For Free
(Bloomberg, 02 June 2016)
11
Wilson J, 2015: Bolivia Wants to Become the Energy Heart of South America (Financial
Times, 26 October 2015)

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TABLE 2: 2016 ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX NEGATIVE WATCH LIST

Country Rank Score Developments to watch

Germany 5 AAA Continuing high cost of the energy transition


Reform in renewables support scheme

United Kingdom 11 AAA Energy security concerns and an uncertain


regulatory regime impact investments in nuclear
and gas sector
Political events create uncertainty around climate
and energy policy

United States 14 AAC Ageing transmission infrastructure and impending


coal-fired power plant retirements
Increased frequency of extreme weather events

Japan 30 CAB Continuation of high import dependence


Political, legal, and administrative barriers to
diversification

Brazil 57 CBB Droughts affecting hydroelectricity generation


Sharp increase in energy prices

South Africa 84 CCD Continuing struggle with power shortages


Maintenance efforts by main utility creates
difficulties for independently produced renewable
energy to enter the market

Source: World Energy Council / Oliver Wyman, 2016

Negative watch list


The following countries remain on the negative watch list (see Table 2):

While Germanys (rank 5, AAA) overall ranking has improved, it remains on the
Councils negative watch list as it continues to be affected by the impacts of the plan
to transition Germany's energy system, which includes goals of increasing power
generation from renewable sources, a reduction of primary energy usage and CO2
emissions, as well as the phase-out of nuclear power by 2022 (14% of the electricity
generation mix in 2014).12 However, a reform of the legislation for renewables
support, to come into force in 2017, shifting from feed-in tariffs (FITs) to market-
based support mechanisms, may impact the speed of this transition. Further,
Germanys energy equity performance has seen a decline over the past years as
energy services became more expensive due to renewable energy subsidies being

12
Appunn K, 2016: Germanys Energy Consumption and Power Mix in Charts (Clean Energy
Wire, 09 June 2016)

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levied. Further changes in energy security and environmental sustainability are


expected in future evaluations.

The United Kingdom (rank 11, AAA) continues to face significant challenges in
securing energy supply. Plans to close the UKs remaining coal plants are being put
into question by the countrys decision to leave the EU, as a potential exit from the
single market could significantly increase the cost of its energy imports. The
government recently agreed to the planned construction of a nuclear reactor at
Hinkley Point after a prolonged debate on cost and energy security concerns.
However, investment uncertainty remains due to planned changes to the regulation
of foreign ownership of critical infrastructure. Moreover, the recent sharp decrease
in FITs for wind and solar power may hinder investments in these sectors, impacting
the country's goal to further diversify its energy supply and improve environmental
sustainability. The newly established Department for Business, Energy and
Industrial Strategy, which replaces the Department of Energy and Climate Change,
may however provide more clarity for future energy investments.

Despite an improvement in its overall ranking, the United States (rank 14, AAC)
faces a key challenge in addressing its ageing energy transmission, storage, and
distribution systems, as highlighted by the Department of Energy's Quadrennial
Energy Review.13 While there have been initiatives to diversify the countrys energy
supply and improve its emergency response measures in light of the increasing
frequency of extreme weather events, more investment is needed to tackle this
challenge.14 In addition, the majority of coal-fired and nuclear power plants are at
least 30 years old, and, with an average lifespan of just 40 years, will need to be
replaced over the coming years.15 This poses challenges to the country's energy
security over the coming years despite the expected increase in the countrys
energy exports. Moreover, the markedly different approaches to climate and energy
policy of the two leading parties in the upcoming 2016 presidential election further
add an element of political uncertainty to the sector.

The government of Japan (rank 30, CAB) is pursuing a strategy of diversifying its
energy supply, which, since the accident at Fukushima, has been comprised
overwhelmingly of fossil fuels. The new strategy will include increasing the share of
renewables to 1314% and the share of nuclear energy to 1011% of the national
primary energy supply by 2030.16 To this effect, three of the countrys nuclear
reactors are back online, while the resumption of energy production at other
reactors has so far been delayed due to time-consuming examinations by the
Nuclear Regulation Authority, political difficulties and legal challenges.17

13
Conca J, 2015: It Really Is Our Aging infrastructure (Forbes, 21 May 2015)
14
US Department of Energy, 2016: Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz Calls for Increased
Investment to Enhance US Energy Emergency Response
15
EIA, 2011: Age of Electric Power Generators Varies Widely, 16 June 2011
16
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, 2015: Long-term Energy Supply and
Demand Outlook
17
Stapczynski S, 2016: Japan Reactor Restart Signals Latest Step in Nuclear Rebirth

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The capacity of South Africas (rank 84, CCD) energy system has improved over
the past year due to increasing investment in infrastructure maintenance and fossil
fuels, and the frequency of blackouts has decreased. However, the country still
struggles to diversify its energy sources, with the majority of its electricity still being
supplied by Eskom through fossil fuels.18 Plans to build new nuclear reactors are on
hold, and independent producers of renewable energy, while having made some
advances over the past two years, still need to develop strong inroads into the
countrys supply. Unless these residual issues are addressed, South Africas
sustainability score is unlikely to improve.

In 2016, Brazil was added to the Councils negative watch list:

Brazil (Rank 57, CBB), which produces over 70% of its total energy through
hydroelectric power, has recently experienced a severe drought, lasting from 2014
until late 2015. This has negatively impacted many of the countrys hydroelectric
facilities.19 Another concern is the sharp rise in energy prices by 50% in 2015, with
further increases expected in the future. Policymakers have to find ways to render
the countrys energy sector more resilient to extreme weather events and pursue
policies to guarantee energy security and equity of access.

AN ENERGY SECTOR IN TRANSITION: THE 2016 ENERGY


TRILEMMA INDEX IN CONTEXT
Every country has opportunities to improve its energy performance, regardless of whether
they are ranked first or last. However, the energy sector is at a transition point and
improving energy performance will prove to be challenging. In addition, energy services
must expand to meet rising global energy demand in many emerging economies and
provide more than 1 billion people with needed access to modern energy services. Energy
infrastructure needs to be expanded using low-carbon technologies while energy security
and reliability must be maintained and strengthened in a context of increasing risks and
resilience challenges posed by running legacy systems. At the same time new business
models to tackle these challenges are becoming more prominent, which will require new
approaches to market designs and regulation.

Energy industry and energy leaders have been implementing changes and making strides
to meet these challenges. To meet energy and climate goals, governments must enact and
continue to push the evolution of energy policies and financing solutions that support rapid
transitions and expansion of energy infrastructure.

The 2016 World Energy Trilemma: Defining measures to accelerate the energy transition,
the companion report to this Index, identified five focus areas to drive progress on the

(Bloomberg, 11 August 2016); Harding R, 2016: Japans Nuclear Restart Stymied by Courts
(Financial Times, 06 April 2016)
18
Cohen M and Burkhardt P, 2015: What is South Africa Doing to Tackle Its Electricity Crisis?
(Bloomberg, 08 September 2015)
19
Leahy J, 2015: So Paulo Drought Raises Fears of Brazil Energy Crisis (Financial Times,
11 February 2015)

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energy trilemma and offers guidance in the complex task of translating the trilemma goals
of energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability into tangible actions.

The five focus areas are derived from a review of the findings of the past five trilemma
reports and Trilemma Index trends over the same time period as well as a wide
assessment of country energy strategies.

Five focus areas to accelerate the energy transition


Drawing on case studies and interviews with energy leaders, this 2016 report identifies five
focus areas necessary to make progress on the energy trilemma:

1. TRANSFORMING ENERGY SUPPLY. Policymakers and decision makers must set clear
and straightforward energy targets and build a broad consensus for the transition in energy
supply and demand. This process must include new entrants to the energy sector and early
engagement with affected communities. Taking an adaptive approach by launching pilot
projects and regularly analysing policy effectiveness is crucial for the successful delivery
and implementation of policies.

2. ADVANCING ENERGY ACCESS. Many emerging and developing economies continue


to struggle to expand energy infrastructures to support advanced energy security, reliability
and access. To increase private sector investments in infrastructure expansion and
modernisation, countries are reforming regulatory frameworks to decrease the cost of doing
business, and to increase competitiveness in the electricity market. In tandem, distributed
generation through solar and wind renewables is bringing energy access to rural and
remote communities that cannot currently be cost-effectively connected to the grid.

Solely expanding energy access infrastructure is not enough. Countries must look to a
range of innovative mechanisms that enable affordable access for people to utilise the
benefits of modern energy for income-generating activities. Innovative mechanisms include
pay-as-you-go business models and mobile banking solutions to promote the take-up of
renewable-powered energy services.

3. ADDRESSING AFFORDABILITY. Many countries with lower gross domestic products


(GDPs) and low rankings on the energy equity dimension are struggling to ensure energy
affordability while financing or creating the investment conditions to support energy
infrastructure expansion. Over the short term, subsidies can be vital for lower-income
consumers and for supporting social and economic programmes. Energy subsidies can be
costly to deploy, are contentious to remove, and tend to decrease overall performance on
the energy trilemma over the long term. The case studies in 2016 World Energy Trilemma
report demonstrate how long-term subsidies can erode the profitability of utilities, stall
improvements in energy infrastructure and stimulate inefficient energy use.

4. IMPROVING ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND MANAGING DEMAND. Energy efficiency


and managing energy demand continue to be globally perceived as top action priorities with
huge potential for improvement. As highlighted through the case studies in the companion
report, cost savings alone are often insufficient to stimulate the adoption of energy
efficiencies or behaviours.

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Policymakers must align the interests of asset owners, users and regulators, and continue
to implement a combination of energy efficiency standards, performance ratings, labelling
programmes and incentives. They must also increase awareness across all industrial
sectors, and encourage consumers to continue to focus on greater energy efficiency.

5. DECARBONISING THE ENERGY SECTOR. The groundbreaking conclusion of COP 21


added increasing momentum to the global transition to low-carbon energy. Dynamic and
flexible renewable energy investment policies are the key to responding to evolving market
dynamics and technological developments. Meeting COP 21 climate goals will require a
clear path to a meaningful carbon price signal and changes beyond the energy sector and
across the economy. Governments have a role in building the necessary consensus for
change.

Recommendations
There are lessons emerging from innovative and tried-and-tested policies to overcome
barriers and make progress on the energy trilemma:

Policy matters: Policy choices, and creating a regime to support a robust energy sector,
are critical to lasting energy trilemma performance regardless of a countrys resources or
geographic location.

Time matters: Policies and investments intended to change energy supply and demand at
a national level will take time and will likely be disruptive. Countries must act now to
progress on the trilemma with secure, equitable and environmentally sustainable energy to
support a thriving energy sector, a competitive economy and a healthy society.

Other recommendations include:


Improved coordination and looking beyond the energy sector to meet climate
change goals is critical.

Policymakers should provide clarity to the market with succinct and aligned signals
when devising policy strategies in order for investors to assess their commitments
against long-term trends.

Governments need to be strongly supportive of private sector investment in


research, innovation and development.

A change-management approach in communicating policies and setting


expectations should be adopted to take into account technology changes and any
setbacks that may occur in the future to avoid stakeholder backlash.

Desired transitions in the energy sector must be accompanied and stimulated by


transitions in regulatory frameworks. Energy 2.0 must be enabled by regulations
2.0.

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W O R L D E NE R G Y C O U N C I L | E N E R G Y T R I LE M M A I N D E X

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REGIONAL PROFILES
The variability in performance seen across the three dimensions of the Trilemma Index
shows the degree to which the energy challenges faced by each country are unique.
However, the transnational nature of both energy markets and environmental sustainability
issues necessitates a view that extends past the country level. A comparison of key metrics
across geographical regions and GDP groups (see Table 3) illustrates this point.

TABLE 3: COMPARISON OF KEY METRICS ACROSS GEOGRAPHICAL


REGIONS AND GDP GROUPS

Household electricity prices

GHG emission growth rate


and distribution losses (%)
Diversity of international
Access to clean cooking

Access to clean cooking

energy suppliers (HHI)


Population with access

Rate of transmission
in urban areas (%)
Instustrial sector

to electricity (%)

in rural areas (%)


(% of total GDP)

2010 2014 (%)


Energy intensity
GDP per capita,

(kCO2 per US$)


(koe per US$)

CO2 intensity
(US$/kWh)
PPP US$

Geographical region

Asia 21,313 31.1 88 46 75 0.11 2,284 0.09 0.29 10.7 3.9

Europe 32,390 25.4 100 75 85 0.22 2,499 0.09 0.28 8.9 0.0

Lat. Am. & Caribbean 13,203 31.7 92 54 85 0.12 3,678 0.08 0.24 14.5 3.4

Middle East & N. Africa 37,417 46.2 97 94 95 0.12 2,325 0.08 0.35 12.1 4.7

North America 39,141 27.8 100 84 95 0.20 4,223 0.10 0.35 10.2 0.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 5,628 26.2 37 16 50 0.08 3,794 0.15 0.18 16.2 3.8

GDP group

Group I 54,608 31.9 98 88 88 0.24 2,078 0.08 0.26 6.4 1.1

Group II 22,818 32.0 97 76 87 0.18 2,998 0.08 0.32 10.7 1.8

Group III 10,999 31.1 89 47 83 0.11 3, 117 0.09 0.29 13.1 3.2

Group IV 3,360 24.7 47 13 49 0.08 3,463 0.16 0.19 18.1 4.3

Global average 22.937 30.1 84 57 78 0.18 2,920 0.10 0.27 11.9 2.5

Source: World Energy Council/Oliver Wyman, 2016

As shown in the World Energy Trilemma reports, energy leaders have emphasised the
need to examine opportunities to adopt regionally coordinated approaches to energy
resources, infrastructure and regulation. However, the disparities between and within
regions make this a difficult task.

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WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

This section presents regional energy trilemma balances and performances. In addition,
with reference to the World Energy Councils Scenarios to 2060, it outlines the trilemma
challenges and opportunities each region will face going forward.

The World Energy Scenarios identify three possible routes through a Grand Transition to
2060: Modern Jazz, Hard Rock and Unfinished Symphony.

The Grand Transition refers to the worlds energy evolution through to 2060. While there
are many uncertainties in this transition, there are a number of known, strong trends that
will fundamentally change the worlds energy system. Regardless of the selected energy
scenario, the trends of the Grand Transition will lead to a world in 2060 with:

a significantly lower population and slower global labour force growth

a range of new energy technologies

a greater appreciation of the planets environmental boundaries

a shift in economic and geopolitical power towards Asia.

There are three possible paths for the energy sector during this transition:

Modern Jazz: The world of 2060 has a diverse set of resilient and lower carbon energy
systems. There is a complex, competitive and efficient market landscape that promotes the
open access to information, innovation and the rapid deployment of new technologies.

Unfinished Symphony: The world of 2060 has a global, integrated and resilient low
carbon energy system. Global institutions and national governments support enabling
technologies and there is unified action on security, environmental and economic issues.

Hard Rock: The world of 2060 has a set of diverse economic, energy and sustainability
outcomes. National interests result in a fractured world with little collaboration between
governments. Deployment of enabling technologies is limited based on availability of local
resources and little attention is paid to climate change.

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ASIA
Asia faces the challenge of facilitating sustainable growth of its highly energy-
intensive, emerging economies while managing increasing energy demand and
growing energy import dependence. Improvements on all three trilemma dimensions
are possible by increasing the use of renewable energy sources, and decreasing
import dependence through reliable trade relationships and improved infrastructure.

FIGURE 4: ASIAS ENERGY TRILEMMA PROFILE


Asian countries
Australia Japan Philippines
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Singapore
Bangladesh Korea (Rep.) Sri Lanka
Cambodia Malaysia Tajikistan
China Mongolia Thailand
Hong Kong, China Nepal Vietnam
India New Zealand
Indonesia Pakistan

Source: World Energy Council / Oliver Wyman, 2016

Asia is the worlds largest and most populous continent and energy demand is continuing to
grow. The region includes a diverse array of economies, with less developed countries
(Nepal and Pakistan), rapidly developing economies (China, India, Indonesia), and highly-
developed nations (Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand).

Many countries in the region are in the lower half of the Index. Nonetheless, several
countries have exhibited positive trends in their trilemma performance. The Philippines, for
instance, has improved the diversity of its electricity generation, which now includes more
than 15% of electricity generated from non-hydropower renewable energy sources. This
achievement has allowed the country to decrease its dependence on fuel imports, improve
electricity access and quality of electricity supply, as well as reduce emission intensity.
However, possibly the most notable energy development of the region is occurring in
Australia. The country now has several Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects in operation
and three more under construction.20 With an expansion of LNG exports, the higher
adoption of natural gas could be an important means of improving the regions energy
trilemma profile.

Between 2040 and 2050, Asia is projected to surpass North America and Europe combined
in terms of GDP, population size, military, health, and education spending, and
technological investment.21 In line with these projections, fast-growing Asian economies are

20
Appea, 2016: Australian LNG projects
21
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

23
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

currently in the midst of a highly energy-intensive stage of their economic development


characterised by massive investments in infrastructure.

China and India in particular are expected to play significant roles in determining the future
of the regions energy mix and sustainability; these two countries will be the primary driver
behind demand growth to 2060 in the region (see Figure 5).

FIGURE 5: PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PER CAPITA) IN CHINA AND


INDIA UP TP 2060

Final energy consumption per capita (GJ) - China Final energy consumption per capita (GJ) - India
25 10
9
20 8
7
15 6
5
10 4
3
5 2
1
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

As these countries economies continue to grow, it is especially important that they


transition away from carbon-intensive energy sources and economic activities to ensure
global climate targets are met. This may be challenging as the rapid growth in car
ownership in China and India illustrates. In an effort to reduce GHG emissions, the Chinese
government has invested heavily in electric vehicle subsidies (US$4.6bn) with a target of
5 million electric cars on the road by 2020. However, with current forecasts estimating that
only 1.29 million electric cars will be sold by then, it is questionable whether this target will
be met.22 Meanwhile, India aims to have an all-electric car fleet by 2030, but will face
limitations due to poor electricity infrastructure.23

Energy security is a key focus for the region and, according to the World Energy Scenarios,
will remain so over the next 50 years. This focus has led to significant investments in and
national pledges to use renewable energy sources in some Asian countries, which is
expected to positively impact the diversity of energy supply in the region.

Due to low natural resource endowments, the East Asian region, including Korea, Japan,
and China largely depends on imports to meet its current energy consumption needs. This
significantly impacts East Asias ability to secure its energy supply independently. The
Republic of Korea, for example, relies almost entirely on crude oil imports and is the second
largest importer of LNG after Japan. Japan is also the second largest coal importer and

22
Automotive News, 2016: Skepticism Surrounds China EV Boom
23
Green Car Reports, 2016: Indias Ambitious Goal: All Electric Vehicles on Road by 2030

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third largest net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the world.24 In 2013, China
became the worlds largest net importer of oil.25

Despite Asias current struggle to balance the energy trilemma, it has the potential to
improve on all three dimensions of the energy trilemma over the next 50 years. According
to the 2016 World Energy Scenarios, energy intensity is expected to decrase between
2576% by 2060 and CO2 intensity could decrease between 7393% by 2060 compared to
2014 levels (see Figure 6 and 7).26 Moreover, diversity of primary energy supply will
increase compared to 2014, providing a positive outlook on the energy security of the
region. However, the regions energy security may be negatively impacted by the
increasing dependence on energy imports. In order to minimise the vulnerability caused by
increasing import dependence, the region should focus on building reliable trading
relationships and developing its energy infrastructure.

FIGURE 6: CENTRAL ASIAS PROJECTED ENERGY AND CO2 INTENSITY

Final energy intensity (MJ/USD2010 MER) CO2 intensity (kg CO2/USD2010)


14 1.2

12 1
10
0.8
8
0.6
6
0.4
4

2 0.2

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

FIGURE 7: EAST ASIAS PROJECTED ENERGY AND CO2 INTENS

Final energy intensity (MJ/USD2010 MER) CO2 intensity (kg CO 2/USD2010)


8 0.8
7 0.7
6 0.6
5 0.5
4 0.4
3 0.3
2 0.2
1 0.1
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

24
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013: Japan is the Second Largest Net Importer of
Fossil Fuels in the World
25
U.S. Energy Information Administration
26
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

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WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

The regions future energy trilemma performance will depend on the path it takes. The
Modern Jazz Scenario serves as a transition to a highly productive world, in which Asia is
the economic and geopolitical centre. If Asia does not make concerted efforts to shift to
renewable energy sources and address poverty and inequity, a declining performance on
the environmental sustainability and energy equity dimensions of the energy trilemma may
be inevitable; this would impact the regions ability to drive a balanced improvement on the
energy trilemma.

FIGURE 8: CENTRAL ASIAS PROJECTED DIVERSITY OF PRIMARY ENERGY


SUPPLY

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock


180
160
140
120
EJ/y

100
80
60
40
20
0
2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables

FIGURE 9: EAST ASIAS PROJECTED DIVERSITY OF PRIMARY ENERGY


SUPPLY

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock


300

250

200
EJ/y

150

100

50

0
2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

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EUROPE
Although European countries lead the 2016 Index, the region still faces the challenge
of managing the energy security and affordability risks resulting from the energy
transition. To maintain a strong trilemma performance, policymakers must focus on
energy market design, regional markets, demand management, and designing an
effective carbon price to successfully manage the challenging energy transition.

FIGURE 10: EUROPES ENERGY TRILEMMA PROFILE


European countries
Albania Greece Poland
Armenia Hungary Portugal
Austria Iceland Romania
Belgium Ireland Russian Federation
Bulgaria Italy Serbia
Croatia Latvia Slovakia
Cyprus Lithuania Slovenia
Czech Republic Luxembourg Spain
Denmark Macedonia (Rep.) Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Turkey
France Montenegro Ukraine
Georgia Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway

Source: World Energy Council / Oliver Wyman, 2016

European countries lead the 2016 Index, claiming nine of the top 10 spots. The European
Unions (EU) long-term climate and energy strategy, implemented through the 2020
Climate and Energy Package is a key driver contributing towards the regions continued
strong Index performance.27 Analysis shows that the EU is broadly on track to meet the
20-20-20 goals.28 Together with the regions strong Index performance this shows that the
EUs policy making is contributing towards the regions success in the Index.

However, temporary external factors, including the global financial crisis of 2008/09 may
have accelerated the progress on these energy sustainability goals in the short term due to
the associated dip in energy demand and reduction in industrial activity. In order to secure
the top ranks of the Index going forward, the region needs to continue working on the
20-20-20 goals. Additionally, the region should focus on energy security, while ensuring the
long-term affordability of the energy system (at both the household and industrial levels).

Government policies aimed at achieving the 20-20-20 targets threaten the financial viability
of the overall power sector, which will further financially impact both governments and
consumers. This highlights the challenges that Europe faces in developing policies that
promote balanced progress on the energy trilemma. Specifically, policies to achieve climate

27
World Energy Trilemma 2016: Defining measures to accelerate the energy transition
28
Eurostat, 2016: Europe 2020 indicators climate change and energy

27
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

targets and increase the share of renewables have distorted electricity markets, causing
decreased wholesale prices, and in turn have undermined investments in wholesale
capacity. These occurrences render modern gas plants non-viable, while older, more
polluting coal plants with lower marginal costs are able to operate profitably.

For example, Germany requires a total investment of US$58bn until 2033 to ensure the
security of supply for conventional power generation and storage.29 Under current
conditions, the utilities market share in power generation capacity is projected to decline by
one-third, to less than 50% by 2033 as households and businesses invest directly in their
own renewables-based power generation capacity. The German government will have to
redesign the structure of its electricity market to compensate backup providers, keep
conventional generation viable and encourage financing of larger-scale generation capacity
during a period of energy transition. Along with this, the German government will need to
focus on making gas power plants a more attractive investment option than CO2-intensive
coal power plants.

The UK also faces significant challenges in securing energy supply following the steady
decline of domestic production of fossil fuels, the phase-out of nuclear power plants, and
the introduction of European legislation that would force many coal plants to close. Ageing
infrastructure, reduced investments in the wind and solar sectors, and tightened reserve
capacity margins impose further strains on energy supply. The current uncertainty in future
energy policy presented by the Brexit referendum vote may stall necessary investments in
updated energy infrastructure.

Eastern European countries face a different set of obstacles in addressing their future
progress on the energy trilemma, particularly in energy security and environmental
sustainability, including developing financial markets and a secure investment environment
to encourage investment in the energy system to support economic growth.

Europe outperforms all regions with regards to energy access and the reliability of energy
supply. However, high energy prices are a concern to many European countries. At
governmental level, high expenditure is required to stimulate renewable energy growth.
From 2012 to 2020, for example, an estimated 40.5bn will be spent in France to support
the renewable power sector.30 A significant portion of this investment will be borne at the
consumer level.

To secure a high and balanced performance on the Energy Trilemma Index, meet the
20-20-20 targets, and the more ambitious energy targets set for 2030, European
policymakers must enhance their existing climate and energy efforts. Specifically, they must
place a greater focus on energy market design, regional energy markets, energy demand
management, and the proper price setting for carbon.

29
Oliver Wyman, 2014: Power Generation Disruption: Germanys Case for Change
30
Deloitte, 2015: Energy Market Reform in Europe

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FIGURE 11: EUROPES PROJECTED ENERGY AND CO2 INTENSITY

Final energy intensity (MJ/USD2010 MER) CO2 intensity (kg CO2/USD2010)


5 0.35
4.5
0.3
4
3.5 0.25
3 0.2
2.5
2 0.15
1.5 0.1
1
0.05
0.5
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

Despite the policy challenges ahead, all three World Energy Scenarios show promising
trends to 2060 (see Figure 11): final energy intensity is predicted to decrease by 2159%
by 2060, while CO2 intensity is expected to decrease by 4183% by 2060, showing positive
trends for Europes performance on the environmental sustainability dimension of the
energy trilemma in the long term. The regions performance on the energy security
dimension is also predicted to fare well over the long term, with energy imports falling from
their current 12% to 59.6% by 2060. At the same time, the diversity of primary energy
supply is expected to increase (see Figure 12).

FIGURE 12: EUROPES PROJECTED DIVERSITY OF PRIMARY ENERGY


SUPPLY

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock


140

120

100
EJ/y

80

60

40

20

0
2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

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LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN


The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region must work on improving and
maintaining its energy security by increasing the energy systems resilience to
extreme weather events and improving energy equity. Diversifying the energy supply
with low-carbon sources such as solar and wind and increasing regional
interconnection will be key. However, large-scale investments are required to finance
the development of resilient energy infrastructure.

FIGURE 13: LACS ENERGY TRILEMMA PROFILE

LAC countries
Argentina Ecuador Panama
Bolivia El Salvador Paraguay
Brazil Guatemala Peru
Chile Honduras Trinidad & Tobago
Colombia Jamaica Uruguay
Costa Rica Nicaragua Venezuela
Dominican Republic

Source: World Energy Council / Oliver Wyman, 2016

LAC is an energy-rich region with large oil and gas deposits and great natural endowments
of exploitable renewable energy. The region is comprised of both net energy importers and
exporters, including OPEC members Ecuador and Venezuela. The LAC region includes the
majority of the worlds hydro-powered countries such as Colombia, Uruguay, Costa Rica,
Ecuador, Brazil, Peru and Paraguay. Many LAC countries with higher performance on the
Index owe their success to leveraging strong hydropower capabilities. In Brazil and
Colombia in particular, the extensive use of hydropower has led to low emissions and
higher electrification rates.

Environmental sustainability is LACs strongest trilemma dimension, with the region as a


whole accounting for only 9% of the worlds GHG emissions. In the long term, the regions
environmental performance is expected to improve even further, with CO2 emission
intensity expected to decrease by 2681% by 2060 and the regions energy intensity
decreasing by 1059% by 2060.31

However, the regions strong reliance on hydropower is also a risk factor for energy security
as it is highly susceptible to changing weather patterns. For example, in 2015 and early
2016, the regions hydropower output was significantly affected by El Nio related droughts.

31
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

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The resulting power shortages led to spikes in energy prices and the need to use less
efficient and more polluting short-term back-up energy sources to manage the power
shortages. While El Nio effects are natural, recurring events, their frequency and severity
are expected to increase over time, making the region more vulnerable to decreased
hydroelectric power generation and energy shortages in the long term.32

FIGURE 14: LACS PROJECTED ENERGY AND CO2 INTENSITY

Final energy intensity (MJ/USD2010 MER) CO2 intensity (kg CO2/USD2010)


6 0.35

5 0.3

0.25
4
0.2
3
0.15
2
0.1
1 0.05

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

The regions success in adapting to changing weather patterns and the water-energy nexus
will impact its path to greater energy sustainability. For example, to address increased
droughts, LAC countries must develop and implement substantial soft and hard resilience
measures, including conventional, solar and wind power generation. Regional integration
(e.g., the Central American Integrated System Project, which will connect Guatemala,
El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama) is expected to play an
increasingly important role in the regions ability to increase resilience.

Another critical approach to mitigating the impacts of reduced hydropower resources is


attracting investment. To be successful in this area, LAC countries will need to develop a
secure investment profile, a task which will require overcoming several hurdles. In
particular, hydropowered LAC countries will need to develop a strong pipeline of bankable
projects and increase investors comfort with new renewables to strengthen the resilience
of energy systems. For example, Argentina is particularly limited by a lack of investment in
all energy sectors due to a persisting energy price freeze instituted by its government in
response to the 2001 economic crisis, which has stunted the profitability of the energy
sector. Although the country possesses large reserves of unconventional oil and natural
gas, it is unable to exploit them due to its inability to attract the new investors necessary to
do so. Countries that are not locked into fossil fuel heavy development paths, such as
Nicaragua, also have problems attracting potential investments due to country risk ratings.

Looking to the future energy trilemma path, efforts to diversify the energy mix are promising
to be successful in the long term, with the diversity of energy supply increasing by 2060.

32
Yale environment 360, 2016: El Nio and Climate Change: Wild weather may get wilder;
World Energy Council, 2015: World Energy Perspective: The road to resilience Managing and
financing extreme weather risks

31
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

A number of low-carbon, renewable energy sources such as biomass, which is expected to


increase from 18% to 2440% by 2060, will change the current composition of the primary
energy mix and ensure greater resilience and energy security. At the same time, the share
of oil will decrease from 47% today to 2034% in 2060.33

FIGURE 15: LACS PROJECTED DIVERSITY OF PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock


70

60

50
EJ/y

40

30

20

10

0
2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

While the share of net energy imports is expected to be near zero by 2060 for all scenarios,
final energy consumption per capita is expected to increase by 5385% by 2060. This
indicates that the region will largely be energy self-sufficient by 2060, further contributing
towards its energy security.

Historically, industrialising countries have substantially increased their impact on the


environment as they strive to boost economic growth and access to modern energy
services. As most of these LAC countries economies are still developing, their challenge as
they shift away from hydropower will be to meet a growing demand for electricity while
maintaining a low environmental footprint. While urbanisation continues throughout the
region, mitigating and adapting to the exacerbated impacts of extreme weather events in
megacities, which are largely based around ports and require substantial energy
infrastructure, will be a great challenge. At the same time, the region must address the
resulting increases in smog, GHG, and CO2 emissions to maintain the existing air quality.
However, industrialisation, urbanisation and environmental sustainability are not mutually
exclusive and lessons can be drawn from the experiences made by hydropowered
countries, such as Brazil, Panama, Colombia or Ecuador.

33
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA


The main challenges for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are high
energy intensity, GHG emissions, and use of finite fossil fuel reserves. Combined
with water scarcity concerns, these challenges, if not addressed, could threaten the
regions energy security and environmental sustainability. Many MENA countries are
focused on improving energy efficiency and diversifying their economies and energy
mixes through an increased use of solar and nuclear power. Significant changes to
the regions trilemma performance are however only likely to show towards the
2020s and 2040s.

FIGURE 16: MENAS ENERGY TRILEMMA PROFILE

MENA countries
Algeria Israel Oman
Bahrain Jordan Qatar
Egypt Kuwait Saudi Arabia
Iran (Islamic Rep.) Lebanon Tunisia
Iraq Morocco United Arab Emirates

Source: World Energy Council / Oliver Wyman, 2016

The MENA region is central to the worlds oil and gas agenda. The region has tremendous
fossil fuel resources, with 54.9% of global oil and 50.3% of global gas.34 As the Trilemma
Index emphasises diversity and resilience as well as demand management in measuring
energy security, MENA countries have a comparatively weaker energy security
performance. To improve their energy security, many countries in the region are
diversifying their energy mix and power generation, and are working on reducing final
energy consumption. In the long term, the region is expected to increase the diversity of
primary energy supply and reduce its final energy consumption per capita by 15%.
However, these changes will only become visible towards the 2020s and 2040s.

In the short term however, the complex political and security landscape in some MENA
countries is translating into reduced investments and supply disruptions, which are
exacerbated by low oil prices; supply disruptions amount to almost three million barrels per
day (Mb/d), with those disruptions concentrated in Libya (1.3 Mb/d) and Iran (860 Kb/d).35

34
BP, 2016: Statistical Review of World Energy
35
BP, 2015: BP Statistical Review of the World 2015 and Chatham House: Royal Institute of
International Affairs, 2016: Middle East and North Africa Energy; Carnegie Endowment for

33
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

FIGURE 17: MENAS PROJECTED DIVERSITY OF


PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock


70

60

50
EJ/y

40

30

20

10

0
2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

Many energy security concerns in less oil-rich countries relate to the Nile and the energy-
water-food nexus. Egypt, for example, is dependent on the Nile for 97% of its water needs
and experiences limited rainfalls, a trend that is set to continue. Coupled with population
growth and the potential redistribution of the Niles resources to other riparian nations,36
Egypts water overuse may lead to severe water scarcity in the future and impact plans
for increased hydropower in the region. In fact, Egypt could run out of water by 2025,
which highlights the energy-water-food nexus challenges the country and region are facing.37

Fossil-fuelled economies, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are also facing energy
security threats due to their high rate of energy consumption growth. However, many of
these countries have recognised these risks and are making concerted efforts to mitigate
their effects, including energy diversification. The UAE, for example, has set the goal to
increase the low-carbon energy contribution of renewable energy and nuclear power to

International Peace, 2015: Middle East and North Africa Oil Producers are Facing a New
Price Reality
36
Upstream riparian nations are experiencing high population growth, leading to additional
strains on the Nile. Uganda and Ethiopia are undergoing especially high population growth
levels, at 3.1% and 2.9% per annum respectively, which will intensify water needs due to rising
consumption by industry, agriculture and households. Ethiopia is simultaneously experiencing
strong economic growth, at 7.5% over the past three years, which is stimulating the development
of infrastructure projects along the Nile. As other upstream nations experience economic growth,
additional water infrastructure projects are expected to follow, which could lead to reduced flows
for downstream riparian nations.
37
Future Directions International, 2013: Conflict on the Nile: The future of transboundary water
disputes over the worlds longest river

34
B E N C H M AR K I N G T H E S U S T AI N A B I L I T Y O F N AT I O N AL E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S

24% of the overall energy mix by 2021.38 The UAE plans to meet these targets using
government-driven investment in large infrastructure projects, technical assistance and
cooperation agreements with international energy agencies and governments, as well as
economic support mechanisms including net metering and slab tariffs, to improve the
competitiveness of solar energy and overall improved energy efficiency.

Saudi Arabia is pursuing energy reforms to address its energy security concerns. In
December 2015, the country announced the first round of its energy reforms, which
includes raising the price of gasoline with the goal of promoting energy efficiency and
reducing the cost of subsidies. With fossil fuel subsidies amounting to over US$62bn, of
which 75% are for oil, subsidy reductions are expected to cut costs by 12% following the
energy reform. Prices will be increased by 60% for petrol, approximately 66% for gas and
around 130% for ethane. The subsidy reforms are expected to generate US$30bn in
savings per year by 2020.39

FIGURE 18: MENAS PROJECTED ENERGY AND CO2 INTENSITY

Final energy intensity (MJ/USD2010 MER) CO2 intensity (kg CO2/USD2010)


10 1

8 0.8

6 0.6

4 0.4

2 0.2

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

In 2012, the MENA region was responsible for approximately 7% of total global GHG
emissions. This is relatively low, compared to other regions such as North America and
Asia, which produced approximately 12% and 50% of global GHG emissions the same
year. However, CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 19% in the Council's Hard Rock
scenario. Conversely, energy intensity and CO2 intensity will decrease in all three of the
World Energy Councils Scenarios to 2060 (Figure 18).

To prevent emission increases and secure development along a path similar to that of the
Unfinished Symphony scenario, the MENA region must place an increased focus on
improving both energy security and environmental sustainability levels. An expansion of
existing efforts to improve energy efficiency and diversify the energy mix would provide a
good foundation for such a shift. MENA countries could build on these developments by
increasing transparency in market value of energy to improve demand management and
energy-water-nexus issues.

38
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Trilemma 2016: Defining measures to accelerate
the energy transition
39
ibid.

35
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

NORTH AMERICA
With 14% of total global GHG emissions stemming from North America, the region
must improve environmental sustainability and update ageing energy infrastructure
to strengthen resilience to emerging risks, including extreme weather events and
cyber attacks. Environmental sustainability is expected to improve significantly due
to emission reduction measures such as the development of carbon capture, usage
and storage technologies, and further diversification of the energy mix.

FIGURE 19: NORTH AMERICAS ENERGY TRILEMMA PROFILE

North American countries


Canada
Mexico
United States

Source: World Energy Council / Oliver Wyman, 2016

North America, comprised of Canada, the United States (US) and Mexico, is the second
strongest geographic region on the Index after Europe. Despite its strong performance, the
region faces two main challenges: securing supply of energy over the long term and
improving environmental sustainability.

North America is well endowed with fossil fuel resources, including oil, natural gas, and
coal, and hydropower potential. Due to the regions natural resource endowment, energy
security concerns are of a different nature than those of regions with limited energy
resources. These include the need to diversify energy sources to increase energy security
and the urgency of managing demand and increasing energy efficiency.

Reducing the carbon footprint, and mitigating the impacts of increasing GHG emissions, is
especially important for North America due to emerging risks, including more extreme
weather events. In 2012, North America accounted for 14% of total global GHG
emissions,40 which are expected to peak by 2030 and then fall back down to 2010 levels or
even lower.

40
World Resources Institute (WRI), 2014: CAIT 2.0 WRIs Climate Data Explorer

36
B E N C H M AR K I N G T H E S U S T AI N A B I L I T Y O F N AT I O N AL E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S

Some progress has already been made in diversifying energy sources and decarbonizing
electricity generation with greater shares of natural gas and renewables. The US has set
2020 emission targets as aggressive as those of several of the top 10 countries in the Index
and has already made progress towards meeting these goals, driven by a reduction in coal-
fired power generation and improvements in transport efficiency. In Canada, the Federal
government is expected to publish a GHG reduction plan in autumn 2016 that may feature
standardised and expanded emission disclosure requirements for the private sector. This
plan will set a national price on carbon emissions. In addition, the four provinces that
include 80% of the Canadian population have already established or are in the process of
introducing a carbon price, which is typically either a tax or a cap-and-trade programme.
Based on these experiences, Canadian officials believe that a carbon price is the most
effective way to reduce emissions while simultaneously fostering necessary innovation, and
this approach will be even more impactful if taken more uniformly.41 While this path may
work in Canada, certain national characteristics suggest that this will not be the case in the
US. Most significantly, resistance by the US Congress and general regulatory uncertainty
could stall, or permanently prevent the introduction of a national carbon price.

Looking forward, both the Modern Jazz and Unfinished Symphony scenarios project
substantial decreases in North American CO2 emissions by 2060, of approximately 55%
and 75% respectively. However, if North America underinvests in energy systems and fails
to collaborate with other countries, the Hard Rock scenario may unfold (31% decrease in
CO2 emissions by 2060).

FIGURE 20: NORTH AMERICAS PROJECTED ENERGY AND CO2 INTENSITY

Final energy intensity (MJ/USD2010 MER) CO 2 intensity (kg CO 2/USD2010)


5 0.5

4 0.4

3 0.3

2 0.2

1 0.1

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

Along with these challenges come potential opportunities for the region; in particular, a
concerted effort to develop carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies.
This technology would allow the mitigation of GHG emissions from large-scale fossil-fuel
usage in power generation, from fuel transformation, and also from industry. As all three
North American economies rely heavily on energy production for energy exports and
certain industries, the use of CCUS technologies, coupled with a focus on energy efficiency
improvements, will likely prove effective in reducing GHG emissions from the energy sector.

41
Bloomberg, 2016: Canada to Introduce National Carbon Price in 2016, Minister Says

37
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

A breakthrough in this area would enable the long-term utilisation of fossil fuels, thereby
significantly improving these countries trilemma performance.

Ageing infrastructure and resulting uncertainties with regards to the reliability of energy
supply is a major concern for the US particularly. In this country, 51% of electricity
generating capacity was built before 1980 and 74% of coal-fired plants are to come off-line
in approximately 10 years.42 Infrastructure is susceptible to damage caused by extreme
weather events such as hurricanes, droughts, blizzards, and flooding, resulting in longer-
lasting, more frequent failures and power interruptions, which makes investments in
existing infrastructure and renewables alike especially important. Rising temperatures put a
strain on the national water system, in turn threatening conventional power generation,
which requires large volumes of water to operate. In addition, the large number of coal-fired
power plants that are due to come off-line in the next decade further emphasises the
importance of investments in new generation capacity and energy demand management
requirements. The country's changing energy landscape as it moves from importer to
exporter intensifies the need to address threats to national energy security. To secure US
energy supply going forward, the US will have to invest to replace its energy infrastructure,
diversify its energy mix and reduce its energy consumption.

The US adoption of a low-carbon energy system will involve increased decentralisation of


energy infrastructure and a much higher percentage of non-hydro renewable energy. The
expansion of wind and solar generating capacity is pushing the present supply
infrastructure to the limits of its maximum performance capability. The system will thus
need to achieve an adequate balance between generation and load. New York and
California are currently the leaders in the US in developing a comprehensive strategy for
distributed energy resource (DER) deployment and stimulating a change to the regulated
investor-owned utility model and could provide good models for the rest of the country.

For its part, Mexico will likely experience both environmental sustainability and energy
security improvements over the next 5-10 years, stemming from 20132014 constitutional
reforms to increase energy sector electricity capacity. However, the country remains tasked
with simultaneously managing the transition from a monopolistic structure to a competitive
market scheme (following the 2014 allowance of full private sector participation in its energy
markets) and from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy.

According to the 2016 World Energy Scenarios, the regions reliance on fossil fuels is
projected to continue through 2060 but to a lesser extent, with fossil fuels making up
51% of primary energy by 2060.43 As shown in Figure 21, this trend is also reflected in the
regions overall diversity of primary energy supply. The US, for example, is placing a strong
focus on renewables-based generation: by 2060, renewables produced in the US are
expected to account for 1736% of the countrys total primary energy supply.44 Mexico still

42
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Trilemma
43
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios
44
ibid. The 17% refers to the Hard Rock Scenario while the 36% refers to the Unfinished
Symphony Scenario.

38
B E N C H M AR K I N G T H E S U S T AI N A B I L I T Y O F N AT I O N AL E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S

obtains 82% of its electricity from burning fossil fuels, while Canada uses nuclear,
hydropower and other renewables to meet 80% of its needs.45

Final energy consumption is expected to decrease by 2060 (depending on the scenario),


which will help alleviate the stress on the energy system. Due to the regions natural
resource endowment, import dependence is lower compared to other regions. In 2014,
approximately 2% of primary energy supply was imported. This trend is expected to
continue until 2060 with imports ranging between 06% until 2060.

FIGURE 21: NORTH AMERICAS PROJECTED CHANGES IN DIVERSITY OF


PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock


160

140

120

100
EJ/y

80

60

40

20

0
2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

45
EIA, 2013: International energy statistics

39
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Sub-Saharan Africa is challenged by the worlds lowest levels of energy access and
commercial energy use, despite a rich endowment in resources and high renewables
potential. Stable and widely accessible energy supply could act as a catalyst for
regional economic development. To unlock the regions resource potential and meet
future energy demand the region must attract investment, build institutional capacity
and improve its on-grid and off-grid energy supply.

FIGURE 22: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAS ENERGY TRILEMMA PROFILE

Sub-Saharan African countries


Angola Ghana Senegal
Benin Kenya South Africa
Botswana Madagascar Swaziland
Cameroon Malawi Tanzania
Chad Mauritania Zambia
Congo (Dem. Rep.) Mauritius Zimbabwe
Cte dIvoire Mozambique
Ethiopia Namibia
Gabon Niger

Source: World Energy Council / Oliver Wyman, 2016

Although the region is well endowed with natural resources, including fossil fuels,
hydropower and renewables, most Sub-Saharan African countries perform poorly on all
three dimensions of the energy trilemma. The region is home to 16% of the global
population,46 but at less than 700 kilograms of petrol equivalent per capita, compared to a
North American average of 7,844 kg, it uses the lowest amount of commercial energy in the
world.47 Globally, Sub-Saharan Africa is the most electricity poor region in terms of both the
total number of people served and the low percentage of its overall population with access
to modern energy services.48 Overall, the region performed poorly in the 2016 Trilemma
Index, with a C in energy security, a D in energy equity, and a C in environmental
sustainability.

Stable energy supply could act as a catalyst for regional economic development. Currently,
the region accounts for just 2.5% of the worlds total economic activity.49 However,
depending on its development path, Sub-Saharan Africa could contribute up to 11.9% of
the worlds total economic activity by 2060.50 However, most countries in the region depend

46
Discourse Media: Power Struggle, 2016: Sub-Saharan Africa access to energy research brief
47
ibid.
48
International Energy Agency, 2016: World Energy Outlook
49
ibid.
50
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios

40
B E N C H M AR K I N G T H E S U S T AI N A B I L I T Y O F N AT I O N AL E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S

on imports for more than 65% of their energy needs and as a result, the region spends
more on oil imports (US$18bn) than it obtains in international aid ($15.6bn).51

Improving energy equity in the region (i.e., access to, quality and affordability of energy
supply) will be challenging. For example, 50% of the Sub-Saharan African population lives
in scattered rural and predominantly agrarian communities. Connecting these communities
to the main grid would require immense infrastructure investments. An estimated US$11bn
per annum must be invested to achieve 100% electricity access by 2030.52 However,
historically, annual investment levels have been about $2bn.53

Off-grid technologies represent the most feasible solution to electrify rural areas, and pay-
as-you-go models provide several advantages to customers with low or variable incomes.54
Several Sub-Saharan African countries have already experienced success with this
approach. M-KOPA Solar, which operates in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, and Off Grid
Electric, in Tanzania and Rwanda, offer packages of small appliances, such as LED lights,
a mobile phone charger and a radio, all of which are powered by a solar panel and a
battery. Rather than paying for the electricity itself or purchasing more expensive kerosene
to fuel older appliances, customers pay for the power equipment and new appliances in
small instalments using mobile phone payment processing.55

At the same time, a number of large-scale renewable projects are in progress. These
include Africas first privately funded and developed geothermal plant, which will be built in
Kenya; a 155 MW photovoltaic (PV) power plant, which is expected to increase Ghanas
power capacity by 6% when it comes online in late 2016; the Congos 40,000 MW Grand
Inga Dam; and Ethiopias 120 MW Ashegoda wind farm.56

Moreover, a number of untapped oil and gas reserves have been discovered in Cameroon,
Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, the Congo (DR), Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, and could be
exploited in the future. However, the process of converting these resources into energy for
domestic populations may be challenging and effects will be limited to urban and peri-urban
areas. For instance, in Nigeria, only 56% of the population has gained access to secure
electricity despite the fact that the country holds the continents largest known natural gas
reserves.57 This fact suggests that financing, institutional capacity and infrastructure deficits
pose the greatest barriers to full access, rather than supply.

51
EIA, 2013: International energy statistics
52
Discourse Media: Power Struggle, 2016: Sub-Saharan Africa access to energy research brief
53
ibid.
54
World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Trilemma 2016: Defining measures to accelerate
the energy transition
55
ibid.
56
Banks J: Key Sub-Saharan Energy Trends and their Importance for the US (Africa Growth
Initiative at Brookings)
57
ibid.

41
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX

FIGURE 23: SUB-SAHRAN AFRICAS PROJECTED CHANGES IN DIVERSITY


OF PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock


90
80
70
60
EJ/y

50
40
30
20
10
0
2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

Managing energy demand is also a challenge for countries as they develop economically.
South Africa, as one of the most developed countries in the region, still struggles with an
unreliable supply of electricity, low capacity margins and the challenge of meeting growing
energy demand. In response to insufficient electricity capacity during peak hours, South
Africas major power utility has devised various strategies to engage the public in voluntary
demand reduction. The principal approach has been rotational load shedding to avoid
national blackouts. Ghana has also implemented an efficiency programme to promote
energy savings and with that security of supply. The Ghanaian programme is focused on
household refrigerators, and involves minimum energy efficiency standards, consumer
education, as well as outreach and rebate efforts.

Regional energy security in the long term is currently hard to predict. Projections suggest
the region will manage the growth in energy demand, and the diversity of energy supply is
predicted to improve. The regions import dependence is also expected to increase to a
maximum of 12% by 2060.

Although the Sub-Saharan African region registers low emissions from the energy sector
and relatively strong environmental sustainability, this trend is projected to change. Current
environmental sustainability scores are a reflection of low energy consumption levels and
lower social and economic development. However, economic growth is projected to
increase significantly and energy demand in the region is predicted to more than double
by 2050.

42
B E N C H M AR K I N G T H E S U S T AI N A B I L I T Y O F N AT I O N AL E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S

These developments are currently projected to increase CO2 levels. According to the 2016
World Energy Scenarios, CO2 emissions are expected to increase between 104% and
258% by 2060. At the same time, both CO2 intensity and energy intensity are expected to
decrease between 5992% and 6690% respectively by 2060 (see Figure 24).

FIGURE 24: SUB-SAHRAN AFRICAS PROJECTED ENERGY


AND CO2 INTENSITY

Final energy intensity (MJ/USD2010 MER) CO2 intensity (kg CO2/USD2010)


16 0.6
14
0.5
12
0.4
10
8 0.3
6
0.2
4
0.1
2
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock

Source: World Energy Council, 2016: World Energy Scenarios to 2060

43
TITLE OF DOCUMENT

C
Cooun
ntrry
pro
ofiles
s
B E N C H M AR K I N G T H E S U S T AI N A B I L I T Y O F N AT I O N AL E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S

COUNTRY PROFILES
Country profiles provide the Index rankings overall and per dimension for each of the World
Energy Council's member countries represented in the 2016 Trilemma Index as well as
their balance score. The trilemma graph on each country profile illustrates the balance
score, which highlights the trade-offs between the three competing dimensions: energy
security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. The table on the right hand side
shows the Index rankings from three consecutive years broken down by dimension and
trends in performance over the years. Furthermore, the country profile provides an
indication of trends and future developments, an overview of the countrys energy
endowment, contributions of energy sources to total primary energy supply and electricity
generation as well as relevant key metrics to provide more context.

Interactive country profiles and associated data can also be viewed on the Index web tool,
which has been developed by the World Energy Council, in partnership with global
management consultancy Oliver Wyman and the Global Risk Centre of its parent Marsh &
McLennan Companies.

The tool can be accessed at: www.worldenergy.org/data.

45
CO
OUNTRY
Y PROF
FILE GU IDE
W O R L D E N E R G Y C O U N C I L | E N E R G Y T R I L E M M A I N D E X Index rankk for each
energy trile
emma
The cou untrys balance
e on energy dimension and
performance is displa ayed by the ora
ange contextual
triangle. The best posssible energy performance for
balance score is indiccated by the da
ark 2014, 2015 5, 2016
blue tria
angle border (m
most outer border)

Overall 2016
Index ra
ank
Trend informationn for
eac
ch energy trilem
mma Oveerall 2016
dimension and bala
ance score.
mance
contextual perform The first letter
over the three-year refers to energy
periiod secuurity, the
Overall 2016 secoond to
e score
balance energy equity
and third to
enviironmental
susttainability

O
Overview of current Index
ra
anking and commentary on
re
ecent trends and
a outlook
or a countrys energy
fo
peerformance

Industrial secto
or (% GDP) % of total GDP th
hat is in the indus
strial sector (CIA
A World Fact Book, 2014)

GDP per capitta, PPP US$ G


Gross domestic product
p (World Bank
B 2015) and In
ndex GDP group
p
(GDP Group

Energy intensiity Measures how much


M m energy is us
sed to create one
e unit of GDP (En
nerdata & World
(koe per US$) E
Energy Council, 2014)
2

Diversity of intternational Indicates to whatt extent the counttry is dependent on energy tradin ng partners.
energy supplie ers D
Diversity of intern
national energy suppliers
s calculatted through the
H
HerfindahlHirsc hman Index ( HH HI), (UNCTAD, 20 014)

Population with access to S


Share of populatiion with access to
t electricity (SE4
4All, 2012)
electricity (%)

Access to cleaan cooking in % of households that have access to non-solid fue


els in urban and rural areas
urban/rural are
eas (%) (
(SE4All, 2012)

Household eleectricity Average cost of electricity


A e (IEA, Eurostat,
E World Energy
E Council, World
W Bank,
prices (US$/kW
Wh) 2
2015)

Rate of transm mission and The ratio between the quantity of energy lost durin
T ng transport and distribution and
distribution los
sses (%) e
electricity consum
mption. Indicates efficiency of infrrastructure (Enerrdata and
W
World Energy Co ouncil, 2014)

CO2 intensity Measures CO2 from fuel combusttion to generate one


M o unit of GDP in PPP (Enerdatta
(kCO2 per US$ $) a World Energy Council, 2014))
and

GHG emission
n growth rate Greenhouse gas emission growth
G h rate from the en
nergy sector betw
ween 2000 and
20002012 (%
%) 2
2012, (WRI/CAIT
T, 2012)

Fossil fuel rese


erves Resource endow
R wment (World Ene
ergy Council, 201
16: World Energy y Resources).
F additional energy resources, for
For f example, unc conventional or re
enewable energy
y
s
sources, visit ww
ww.worldenergy.o
org/data/resource
es

Diversity of tottal primary Diversity of energ


D gy supply and divversity of electric
city generation: Contributors
C of
energy supply e
energy sources to
o total primary ennergy supply and d electricity gene
eration, indicating
g
c
current reliance on
o fossil fuels or other energy sou urces in the enerrgy and electricity
y
s
sector respective
ely (IEA, 2013)
Diversity of ele
ectricity
generation

46
A
ALGERIA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
8
58 58 66 CBC
balance scoore
66 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 88
8 88 88 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 34
4 36 37 B
Environmmental
5
55 70 80 C
sustainability
CBC
C Contextual
08
10 103 108
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Algerria drops 8 place


es in this years
s Index, to rank 66. The country
ys balance scorre of CBC showws a good
perfo
ormance in enerrgy equity, while e energy security
ty and environm
mental sustainab
bility are weakerr in comparison..

Algerria has continuo


ously developed d its economy an nd improved its energy system. Energy policiees have been
imple
emented to intennsify oil and gas
s exploration effforts to increase
e reserves, to prromote renewabble energy and
energ
gy efficiency and increase the share
s of renewa
ables in electriciity generation to
o 40% by 2030.

Policyymakers should
d continue to foccus on: 1) increa ortion of renewable energy in ellectricity genera
asing the propo ation;
2) the
e development of
o energy efficieency because th here is great pottential for impro
ovement; 3) the development off a
renewwable energy in
ndustry that is ec
conomically susstainable; and 4)
4 the developme ent and supportt of research an
nd
development (R&D) and training to increase the tra ansfer of knowle
edge and techno ology.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 45.7 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 14,687 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.06 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,200)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 99 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 18.4

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.26 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 5,397 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
AR
RGENTI NA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
1
61 61 58 BBB
balance scoore
58 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 57
7 51 48 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 69
9 69 69 B
Environmmental
6
66 69 69 B
sustainability
BBB
B Contextual
7
97 92 92
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Argen ntina improves by 3 places, from rank 61 in 20015 to rank 58 in


n 2016. The cou
untry has a well--balanced energy
trilem
mma profile, resu
ulting in a balan
nce score of BBB
B.

If the current energyy policy of low prrices for produccers and high su ubsidies to consumers continuees, there is little
chance to reverse th he decline in prooduction. Oil prooduction decline ed by 30% sincee 1998, while naatural gas produ uction
declinned by 8% since e 2006. As a coonsequence, Arg gentina, previou gy exporter in 20006 with a surplus of
usly a net energ
US$6 6bn, became a net
n energy impo orter in 2011 witth a deficit of USS$3bn.

The ooil company YPF, nationalised in 2012 (by exp propriation of Reepsol shares in Argentinas bigggest oil companny), is
struggling to attract new
n investors, which
w are necesssary to exploit the large reserv
ves of unconvenntional oil and natural
n
n Argentina and
gas in d government programmes to in ncentivise invesstment have so far not been su ccessful.

The n new governmen nt, elected in No


ovember 2015, a aims to remedy this situation byy phasing out suubsidies to return to
markket-oriented prices for supply annd incentivising investment thro
ough a focus on n renewables annd clearer regula ations.
The cchallenge for poolicymakers will be to implemen nt these reforms
s to attract new investment whille not comprom mising
the trrilemmas equityy of access dimeension.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 28.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) N.A.
N (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,422)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 88 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 14.9

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.22 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 2.5

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 610 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
A
ARMENI A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
7
57 60 69 CBC
balance scoore
69 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 58
8 63 84 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 61
1 61 65 B
Environmmental
3
83 82 78 C
sustainability
CBC
C Contextual
8
58 65 70
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Armeenia drops 9 plaaces, from rank 60


6 in 2015 to ra
ank 69 in 2016. While exhibiting
g a good perform mance in the en nergy
equityy dimension, en
nergy security and environmenttal sustainability
y scores are weaker in comparirison, resulting in a
balan
nce score of CBBC.

The AArmenian Publicc Services Regu ulatory Committtee has introduc ced a new, more e sophisticated set of tariffs efffective
as off 1 August 2016, following an unsuccessful tariiff scheme that was w initiated in 2015. The new tariffs aim to he elp the
nerate the financ
national utility to gen ces needed to gguarantee the security of supply y. Going forward
rd, policy makerrs will
have to monitor the newn tariffs influ
uence on the afffordability of ene
ergy to avoid addverse impacts oon the energy equity
e
dimension of the ene ergy trilemma, which
w is currentlly the strongest of the three dim
mensions.

The ccountry is moreo


over working on n building capaccity in the renewwables sector. The Scaling Up Renewable Ene ergy
Progrram for Armeniaa, published in April 2014, setss a target of 21%
% and 26% of re enewable energgy in total powerr
generation by 2020 and
a 2025 respe ectively. Small h
hydropower plan nts and other renewable energyy sources now
accouunt for 11.4% off Armenias eneergy production,, with a further 18.6%
1 coming frrom two large hhydroelectric pow wer
plants (World Bank, 2016). If solar and
a wind option ns are further exxplored, this policy has the poteential to contribu
ute to
impro
oving the enviro
onmental sustain nability dimensioon of the trilemmma in Armenia.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 28.6 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 8,394 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.11 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 5,170)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 51

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 14.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.27 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.2

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 15 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
A
AUSTRIA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
8 11 10 AAA
balance scoore
10 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 20
0 26 20 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 7 5 6 A
Environmmental
2
22 24 23 A
sustainability
AAA
A Contextual
6
16 15 16
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Austrria improves by 1 place in this years


y Index, ma
aking it into the top 10 list at rank 10. The counntrys energy po
olicy is
strong and well-bala
anced, resulting in a score of AAAA.

Austrrias energy seccurity ranking reflects its increassing energy selff-sufficiency, wh


hich is also one of the countrys
s main
long--term goals, as well
w as the prog gress made sincce 1980 in the re enewable energ gy sector, wheree Austria has more
than doubled the pro oduction of reneewable energy.

Policyy developmentss in Austria are in line with the E EUs climate annd energy goals for 2020 (the 200-20-20 targets s). The
counttrys Sustainability Strategy listts 20 goals to: in
ncrease quality of life overall; strengthen econoomic growth; su
upport
susta
ainable goods and services; and optimise the ttransport system m.

Austrria faces three major


m energy po olicy challenges according to th
he IEA: 1) the integration of seccurity of supply,
energgy efficiency, su d internal markett dimensions; 2) the further red
ustainability and duction of Greennhouse Gas
emisssions; and 3) the integration of these two elemments into an energy and climatte strategy. To m maintain or improve
the countrys rankingg, Austrian polic
cymakers will haave to continue to build a strongg, integrated ennergy policy.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 28.0 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 47,824 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,261)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.26 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 5.0

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.19 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 0.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 15 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
B
BAHRAI N

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
9
39 53 59 CAD
balance scoore
59 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 48
8 86 80 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 8 9 7 A
Environmmental
5
95 101 104 D
sustainability
CAD
D Contextual
1
41 47 58
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Bahraain drops 6 placces, to rank 59. The country exxhibits a high de


egree of energy equity, but its ooverall energy po
olicy
is unb
balanced due to o relatively low scores
s in energyy security and environmental
e sustainability, res
esulting in a bala
ance
scoree of CAD.

In 2013 the cabinet approved


a the es
stablishment of an Energy Thin
nk-tank to address the issue off sustainable en
nergy
in Ba
ahrain and is exp
pected to addre
ess Bahrains weeak scores in en
nvironmental suustainability andd energy security
y.

The eestablishment of
o the Sustainab
ble Energy Unit is designed to make a significant contributionn to energy
conseervation and moore concrete commitment to thee utilisation of re
enewable energgy. This unit is ccurrently working to
develop Bahrains National
N Energy Efficiency Actio
on Plan (NEEAP P) and to develo
op a National Reenewable Energ gy
on Plan (NREAP
Actio P).

The uunit is tasked wiith the preparation of proposalss for energy efficiency levels, la abelling requirem ments for appliaances
and pproposals for the e feed-in tariff (FIT) and financiial support for re
enewable energ gy initiatives. Thhe Units tasks have
h
progrressed very well during the pas st 18 months (Ja anuary 2015tim me of writing, 20
016), and its rolee and responsib bility is
being
g elevated to the e highest authority in the decisiion making proc cess in the Gove ernment of Bah rain. It is hoped d that
the policy plans whicch are being fina alised at this mo
oment, are foste ered and implemmented by the G Government at alla
levelss. Part of the pllan is the so-called KEEP Kin ngdom of Bahra ain Energy Effic
ciency Plan whicch is being
developed in collabo oration with the World Bank to ttackle energy in nefficiencies (primarily electricaal energy).

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 50.7 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 46,946 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 8,872)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 94 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.01 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 5.2

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.63 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 170 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
B
BELGIUM
M

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
0
20 20 23 BAB
balance scoore
23 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 22
2 24 38 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 14
4 10 14 A
Environmmental
9
39 41 37 B
sustainability
BAB
B Contextual
6
26 26 24
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Belgium drops 3 placces, from rank 20 2 in 2015 to ra ank 23 in 2016. The


T country perrforms well acrooss the board, with
w a
particcularly strong sccore in energy equity,
e for an ovverall score of BAB

Belgiums supply is secure,


s as a liqu nd a well-divers
uid oil market an sified contractua
al gas portfolio ((with 18 entranc
ce
points for natural gass pipelines and LNG) facilitate its reliance on oil
o and gas impo orts.

Low a average wholessale prices in noorth-west Europ e, a pushback ofo thermal generation due to thee injection of low w
marg ginal cost renew
wables, a continu uing low level off demand, low global
g coal price
es and low pricees for CO2 certificates
in the
e EU Emissionss Trading System m (EU ETS), an nd the technical issues on two major
m nuclear poower plants, all
impact negatively onn the economic profitability of thhe Belgian electtricity market. Too tackle these isssues, the
government is alloca ating strategic re
eserves and posssibly capacity remuneration mechanisms.
m

VAT on energy bills of final consumers was raised back to 21% (after being lowerred by previous governments to o
14%,, partly to keep inflation
i low and h levies for renewable support). The very fast ggrowth of solar PV
d mask the high P
and w
wind in the Belggian system will have to be paid
d for by high-endd consumer electricity prices. T
These choices will
w
contin
nue to weigh onn Belgian electriicity prices.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 22.1 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 43,992 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 3,310)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.27 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 4.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.24 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -1.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
B
BOLIVIA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
00
10 98 1100 CCD
balance scoore
100 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 69
9 65 73 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 97
7 97 97 C
Environmmental
08
10 106 107 D
sustainability
CCD
D Contextual
6
96 102 110
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Bolivia drops 2 place es in this years Index, to rank 1


100. The countrry still lags behin
nd regarding ennvironmental
susta
ainability, resulting in a balancee score of CCD.

Bolivia exports naturral gas to Brazil and Argentina and it has the fiifth largest proven natural gas rreserves in Sou
uth
Amerrica. Proven oil reserves are relatively small, a
and the country has become a net n oil importer aas production fa
ails to
keep pace with conssumption. There e is good potenttial for renewable energy, especially from by-prroducts of suga ar cane
and wwood industries, and hydroelec ctric which has n
not yet been fully exploited.

Rece
ent developments focus on the oil and gas sect ctor, aiming to re
eplenish oil rese
erves and mainta
tain natural gas
exports to Brazil and
d Argentina, thro
ough an Investm ment Act, compllemented by a LawL of Incentivees for the oil sec
ctor, a
new h
hydrocarbons la aw and a law on n prior consultattion.

n of an attractiv
Key issues for policyymakers to focus on: 1) creation ve, enabling envvironment for invvestment to flow
w into
transport of hydrocarbons in both th
he internal netwoork and future export
e markets; 2) continuous aassessment of
oration and prod
explo duction potential of domestic naatural gas resouurces; 3) engage ement with the ggeneral public in
orderr to increase public acceptance
e, shorten the tim
me of pre-consu ultation with indigenous peopless and allow for a
speedier approval off contracts; and 4) further deve
elopment of rene ewables, including hydropower. r.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 36.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 6,881 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.11 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 1,556)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 80 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 94
9 | 27

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.09 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 9.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.31 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 7.7

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 22 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
BO
OTSWAN
NA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
6
96 96 94 DCC
balance scoore
94 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 10
07 106 105 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 88
8 92 90 C
Environmmental
3
93 93 92 C
sustainability
DCC
C Contextual
6
46 46 45
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Botsw wana improves 2 places, to ran nk 94. It receive s relatively low scores across the
t board, with eenergy security being
particcularly weak, resulting in a bala
ance score of DC CC.

Botsw wanas power sector relies on coal


c for 60% of electricity generation. The pow wer system com mprising only thhe
Moru upule A 132 MW W coal-fired power plant is run
n by the vertically integrated government-owneed utility, Botswa ana
Powe er Corporation. However, back--up power plantts are necessary ountrys peak deemand. Botswana
y to meet the co
reliess on an indepenndent power producer running p power plants consuming approx ximately 17,0000 litres of diesel//hour.
Indee ed, the country is dent on electriciity and diesel im
i highly depend mports to meet its peak demandd.

The ggovernment hass only recently recognised


r the n
need to further its
i strategy for increasing the roole of renewable
es in
the energy mix. In pa
articular, Botswana is endowedd with ample solar energy poten ntial.

In 2015, the governm ment asked for assistance


a from
m the World Bank for a renewab ble energy strateegy to harness the
greatt solar potential of the country. In June 2015, th
he government announced it would
w release a ttender for two 50
5 MW
solarr PV plants. Rennewable energy currently accou unts for less tha
an 2% of the cou
untrys generatioon mix.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 39.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 15,8
807 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 8,732)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 43 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 90
9 | 38

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.07 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 6.9

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.26 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 1.2

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
BRAZIL
L

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
4
54 55 57 CBB
balance scoore
57 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 85
5 73 68 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 62
2 67 70 B
Environmmental
0
40 43 46 B
sustainability
CBB
B Contextual
5
65 67 75
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Braziil drops 2 placess, from rank 55 in 2015 to rankk 57 in 2016. The countrys energy policy is ballanced overall, with
w
gy security being the countrys weakest trilemm
energ ma dimension, resulting
r in a ba
alance score of CCBB.

In 2015, Brazil experrienced a 50% rise


r in electricityy prices due to losses incurred by the governm ment following a plan
to red
duce power billss by 20% in 2012. While there w was a drop in prices in the international markeet, domestic gas soline
and ddiesel oil prices rose by 12.4% and 13.0% resp pectively. Regarding the energy y security dimennsion, Brazil red
duced
its de
ependence on fo oreign energy to
o 7.1% in 2015, down from 12.7 7% in 2014. Thiis was achievedd largely by increases
in cru
ude oil and natuural gas production, combined w with a 7.2% deccline in consump ption demand foor petroleum
produucts. This declinne in consumption also contribu uted to a decreaase in emissionss of 4.6%. In sppite of the 2014
2016
drougght, which had a negative impa act on the counttrys hydroelectrric power genera ation, the sharee of renewables in the
dome estic energy sup pply rose from 39.4%
3 to 41.2% .

Going g forward the ch


hallenge for Braazilian policymakkers will be to re emove barriers to investment, iimprove the
resilie
ence of the countrys infrastruc
cture to extreme e weather events s, and find wayss to improve eneergy equity, which is
threa eep increase in consumer price
atened by the ste es. The impact of the recent ad dverse political aand economic
envirronment on the Brazilian energy y sector will be attenuated. The e production of oil
o and natural ggas is increasing
g and
the power sector sup pply capacity is expected to inccrease via the exploitation of renewable sourcees, such as wind d,
solarr, biomass and hydro.
h Accordingly, it is possibl e for Brazil to im
mprove its ranking in energy seecurity and
envirronmental sustaainability dimenssions in the comming years, even n with the return of demand groowth.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 23.4 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 15,3
359 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 992)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 99 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 64

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.11 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 15.1

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.19 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 6,913 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
BU
ULGAR IA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
6
56 49 48 CBB
balance scoore
48 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 59
9 52 67 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 60
0 59 55 B
Environmmental
1
81 71 67 B
sustainability
CBB
B Contextual
2
52 50 49
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Bulga
aria improves byy 1 rank in this years
y Index, to 48. The countrrys energy polic
cy is balanced, w
with energy equ
uity
and e
environmental sustainability
s being Bulgarias sstrongest trilemm
ma dimensions, resulting in a ba
balance score off CBB.

In the
e spring of 2015 5 the Bulgarian Parliament ame ended the existing Energy Act to: t increase the political
indeppendence of the e national regula
atory commissioon; financially sttabilise the electtricity sector; im
mprove market
transparency; promo ote trans-borderr trade; and enh
hance end-user rights. The new w legal frameworrk was expected d to
improove the sustaina able use of rene
ewable energy ssources, markett liberalisation and social equityy during the period
prior to full liberalisation of the mark
ket. The amendm ments have not yet resulted in the expected im mprovements.

Key issues policyma akers need to focus on are: 1) im mproved energy y security through stimulation oof investments in
ble energy infrasstructure, furthe
reliab er diversifying so
ources and routtes of energy su upply, and optimmising the use of
indige
enous energy re esources; 2) inccreased energy efficiency; 3) prrompt actions fo ocused on finanncial stabilisation
n of
the energy sector; 4)) increased social protection; 5 5) pursuing the ambitious
a targetts of giving 30%
% of households
accesss to natural ga
as by 2020 as se et out in the natiional energy strrategy; and 6) reespect for the ruule of law.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 27.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 17,5
512 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 4,685)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) N.A.. | N.A.

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.12 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 12.0

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.47 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 0.5

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 1,657 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
CA
AMEROO
ON

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
03
10 105 1105 BDB
balance scoore
105 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 29
9 33 43 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 111 113 112 D
Environmmental
7
47 48 51 B
sustainability
BDB
B Contextual
09
10 110 112
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Came eroon maintainss its position at rank 105. The ccountrys trilemm
ma performancee is imbalanced,, with the energ
gy
equityy dimension lag
gging behind the e other two, resu
ulting in a balan
nce score of BDB.

Significant energy isssues affecting Cameroon


C are ((a) the intermitteence and (b) supply of energy tto the population.
Disru
uption of energyy supply is currently significant a as it is largely dependent on rainfall. Consequeently, in dry perriods
supply can significanntly decrease.

Came eroons Energy Sector Develop pment Plan aim s to achieve a 75%
7 electrification rate by 20300. These plans are
a
supported by the Caameroon Clean Development M Mechanism proje ect to convert biogas into electrricity. Cameroonn has
additionally impleme
ented policies su
uch as the enerrgy emergence initiative, which h is due to be coompleted in 203
35.
Movinng away from over-reliance
o on hydropower an nd diversifying th
he energy mix will
w assist in reduucing energy su upply
interm
mittency.

Howe ever, the govern nment will need to ensure signiificant investment takes place. It is planned thaat Cameroon wiill use
fossill fuels in the sho
ort term to creatte and speed ecconomic growth, and re-invest the
t financial gaiin from growth into
i
the development of clean
c energy suupplies and greaater mix. Camerroon has experienced a slow buut steady increaase in
GDP and economic growth in the la ast five years an
nd figures provid
de positive signs
s for the investm
ment needed to
eve energy eme
achie ergence.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 30.1 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 3,12
23 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.11 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 4,228)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 54 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 41 | 5

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 14.4

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.11 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 1.0

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 147 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
C
CANADA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
5
15 18 22 AAC
balance scoore
22 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 4 4 5 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 5 14 11 A
Environmmental
00
10 97 96 C
sustainability
AAC
C Contextual
5
15 14 14
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Canaada, at rank 22 maintains


m its strrong scores on eenergy securityy, where it ranks 5th, and energgy equity, where
e it
rankss 11th, but still la
ags behind on environmental
e ssustainability.

Manyy world-leading efforts in carbon policy have beeen implemente ed by Canadas provincial goveernments, which h have
the primary authorityy over energy an
nd environmenttal matters. Examples include the elimination oof coal-fired pow wer
from the generation mix of Canadas largest provin nce, regulations to eliminate coa
al-fired power by both the federal
and pprovincial goverrnments, and inv
vestments in addvanced technology such as the e worlds first fuully integrated project
to capture, use and permanently
p ore CO2 from a coal-fired powe
sto er plant. Further, transformationns towards green
electrricity generation
n are now underrway in several provinces. Theese developmen nts should suppo port the continuinng
improovement in Canadas future ran nkings.

Three e key issues of current focus are: 1) managing g the environmeental/climate imp
pacts of energy end-use applications
(58%% of total emissioons come from transport, buildiings, industry, and
a electricity) and
a also from oi l and gas
development (25% of o total emissionns); 2) a more innclusive and commprehensive review process foor energy
infrasstructure projectts to access new
w export marketts, taking accou unt of the many diverse interestts involved; and
d, 3)
ensuring wider enga agement and the e sharing of ben nefits from resou
urce developme ent projects, moost notably with
Cana adas aboriginal population on whose
w traditiona
al lands most major
m energy projects will be loccated.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 28.6 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 44,310 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.13 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 4,629)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.17 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 9.7

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.43 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 0.2

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 34,086 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
CHAD

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
20
12 119 1119 CDB
balance scoore
119 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 89
9 91 93 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 12
25 123 123 D
Environmmental
2
52 54 52 B
sustainability
CDB
B Contextual
25
12 124 124
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Chadd maintains its position


p at rank 119. The countrry receives a pa
articularly low sc
core in the energ
rgy equity dimen
nsion,
with a balance scoree of CDB.

Conssumption of elecctricity and petro


oleum products accounts for on
nly 10% of natio
onal consumptioon. Wood and
charccoal provide 90% % of the energy
y consumed in CChad, while natu
ural gas consummption is very lim
mited as fewer than
t
11,0000 households area equipped wiith gas heaters. Most of energyy production andd consumption ooccurs in the ca apital.
Output of electricity was
w 103 GWh in 2008, from th ermal sources only.
o High costs
s and scarcity off electricity ham
mper
Chadds economic de evelopment.

The ccountry is highlyy dependent on oil imports from m Nigeria, Came eroon and otherr neighbouring ccountries. STEE E, the
utilityy responsible forr electricity prod
duction and distrribution, does not have the cap pacity to meet thhe countrys eve
er-
growing electric energy demand. Th herefore, the co untry is in the process
p of implementing a natioonal energy policy,
with cconsiderations given
g to renewa able energy duee to its great solaar potential.

The S
Sustainable Ene ergy Fund for Africa (SEFA) haas approved in 2015
2 a US$780,,000 preparationn grant for the
development of a firsst phase 40 MW
W of Starsol solaar PV plant nearr NDjamena in Chad as the firsst Independent Power
Produ
ucer (IPP) scheeme to be conne ected to the natiional grid.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 15.1 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 2,17
71 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.04 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 7,910)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 4 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 27 | 6

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 12.2

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.02 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) N.A.

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 216 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
CHILE

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
5
35 35 38 BBB
balance scoore
38 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 42
2 42 44 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 68
8 66 66 B
Environmmental
6
46 51 48 B
sustainability
BBB
B Contextual
2
22 20 23
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Chile
e drops 3 placess, from rank 35 in
i 2015 to rank 38 in 2016. The
e country performs well across all trilemma
dimensions, with a balance
b score off BBB.

Chilee currently imporrts 60% of its tootal primary ene rgy, exposing itt to international commodity pricce volatility as well
w
politiccal and market related risks. Th he greatest cha llenges are perc ceived to be: seecuring fuel suppply; developing local
resou urces, in particuular renewables;; developing a rregulatory frameework for the ga as sector; promooting energy
efficieency; reducing biomass
b cookin
ng and heating; promoting regio onal integration through gas andd electricity
intercconnectors; advvancing e-mobiliity and smart citties; and accoun nting for additional capacity dellivered by upcoming
tende ers for electricityy production.

The 22014 Agenda de e Energa sets the


t following tarrgets: 1) 30% reeduction of marg ginal costs of el ectricity in 4 yea
ars;
2) 25
5% price cuts of tenders for houuseholds as wel l as small and medium
m enterprises that producce electricity;
3) ren
newables to con nstitute 45% of capacity installe
ed by 2025; 4) energy
e efficiency improvementss to achieve a 20% 2
savinngs target by 2025; 5) developmment of a framew work to hedge exposure
e to fuel price volatility; 6) reform of sta
ate-
owne ed ENAP to havve a greater partticipation in new
w electricity generation; and 7) development
d off a comprehensive
and inclusive energyy policy.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 35.1 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 22,3
316 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 2,231)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 53

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.09 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 7.0

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.28 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.6

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 54 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
CHINA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
7
87 87 87 BBD
balance scoore
87 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 83
3 70 62 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 77
7 77 77 B
Environmmental
119 116 117 D
sustainability
BBD
D Contextual
2
62 63 62
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

China
a maintains its position
p at rank 87. The countryy performs well in the energy security and eneergy equity
dimensions, with its environmental sustainability
s sccore remaining relatively
r esulting in a balaance score of BBD.
low, re B

Chinaa is still in the process of rapid industrialisation


n and urbanisatiion and balancin ng the economi c/social develop pment
and tthe related enerrgy/environmentt issues is a cha allenge for China, to which the Chinese governnment is paying much
attention. Chinas 12 2th five-year plan set mandatory ry targets on eneergy efficiency, non-fossil sharee, environment
ection and low carbon during 20
prote 0102015. In th is period Chinas GDP grew by y 7.8% on averaage with an annual
primaary energy conssumption and ca arbon emission growth of 3.6% and 2.7%. Ene ergy intensity annd carbon intens
sity
reducced to 18% and 21% respective ely, and the shaare of non-fossill energy increas
sed to 15%.

2016 is the first yearr of Chinas 13th


h five-year plan.. China has proposed the strate egy of green deevelopment and set
ambittious mandatoryy targets for 201 152020, includ ding reducing en nergy intensity by
b 15%, reducinng carbon intens sity by
18%,, increasing the share of non-fo ossil to 15%, and ms for I and II deegree level air in
d an air quality target which aim
335 ccities on 80% off days. In the meeantime, China pledges to enhance legislation n and introduce market-based
reform
ms, including la
aunching the nattionwide carbon n trading markett. Related plans and policies, w which will promo ote
moree sustainable de evelopment in thhe coming five yyears, will be announced soon.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 42.7 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 14,239 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.13 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 572)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 70
7 | 19

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.08 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 6.2

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.60 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 8.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 85,36
63 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
CO
OLOMB IA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
7
47 43 41 BBA
balance scoore
41 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 46
6 35 36 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 79
9 81 80 B
Environmmental
7 8 10 A
sustainability
BBA
A Contextual
8
68 66 68
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Colommbia improves by
b 2 places in th
his years Indexx, to rank 41. Th
he country performs well acrosss all trilemma
dimensions, with envvironmental sus
stainability, whe re it ranks 10th globally, being a particular streength. This resu
ults in
a balance score of BBA.
B

Colommbia, although in a relatively high position in th


he Index, still fa
aces major challenges such as:: expanding cov verage
of energy services, and
a finding solutions based on non-convention nal energies; improving quality and reliability of
energgy services; dive
ersification of th
he energy mix; aand sustaining positive
p econom mic developmentt without increasing
CO2 eemissions.

Main areas policyma akers are focusing on are: 1) en nsuring the conttinued developm
ment of the miniing and energy sector
as onne of the main drivers
d of economic growth and d social development; 2) promoting energy efficciency on energ gy
dema and and supply side, and conso olidating a cultu
ure for sustainab
ble use of natura
al resources; 3)) strengthening the
t
particcipation of differrent stakeholderrs in the developpment phases ofo the industry; 4)
4 increasing exxploration of nattural
gas; 5) developing and a implementin ng efficient masss transport systeems; 6) ensuring the expansionn of electricity
generation capacity; and 7) strength hening guarante ees and investm ment opportunitie
es in the country
ry, and boostingg
invesstment in sciencce and technolog gy in the energyy sector.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 36.0 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 13,801 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.05 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 7,767)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 97 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 49

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.14 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 12.3

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.13 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 1.7

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 5,178 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
CONGO
O (DEM OCRAT IC REP UBLIC)

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
115 116 1117 DDC
balance scoore
117 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 95
5 94 98 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 114 112 113 D
Environmmental
4
84 86 85 C
sustainability
DDC
C Contextual
23
12 122 122
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

The DDemocratic Rep


public of the Congo (DRC) rankks 117th in this years
y Index. Re
eceiving low scoores across all
trilem
mma dimensionss, energy equity
y is particularly w
weak, with a balance score of DDC.
D

The D DRC meets its energy


e needs mostly
m through b biomass and hyd dropower. The country
c currentlyy exploits only 2%
2
of its hydroelectric re
esources from the Congo Riverr, which is estim mated to have the potential to suupply 100 GW of o
powe er, the highest in
n Africa. Current hydro installedd capacity is 2,4
420 MW, of whicch only 1,281 MMW is operationa al.
The W World Bank and d the African De
evelopment Ban nk are supporting the country to
o develop an addditional 4,800 MWM at
the Innga 3 site.

Desppite such rich hyydroelectric pote


ential and 2009 reforms, the DR
RC has one of thhe lowest rates of electrification
n in
the w
world, amounting g in 2013 to 1% in rural areas a
and 19% in urbaan areas. This is
s due to a limiteed length of high
h
voltag
ge transmission n lines (only 4,60
00 km).

All these conditions have favoured the


t developmen nt of small and independent pow wer producers aand distributors,
throuugh which the co
ountry has been
n liberalising the
e sector, promotting private inve
estment in generration and
distrib
bution.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 33.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 78
83 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.43 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 2,174)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 15 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 14 | 5

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) N.A.

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.12 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 24 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
CT
TE DIVO
OIRE

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
05
10 104 1101 ADC
balance scoore
101 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 18
8 19 30 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 10
07 106 105 D
Environmmental
9
99 95 94 C
sustainability
ADC
C Contextual
116 113 102
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Cte dIvoire improves by 3 places, from rank 104 iin 2015 to rank 101 in 2016. Th
he country has a strong perform mance
in energy security, but energy equity
y remains its we
eakest trilemmaa dimension, res
sulting in a balannce score of AD
DC.

Cte dIvoire has a laarge renewable e countrys ability to develop annd implement energy
e energy potenti al. However, the
policiies to develop th
hese energy sources has been n hampered by internal conflict. Combined withh a lack of inves
stment
w energy access and a poorly diversified
in energy and infrasttructure, this has resulted in low d energgy mix.

Altho
ough there is exttensive grid sup pply, the prohibittive cost of acce
essing the grid presents a barririer to access the
electrricity. As a result, there is a larg
ge disparity betw
ween the numb ber of people whho live in a grid-cconnected locality
and tthe households that are actually y connected.

The g government agrreed in 2012 on an energy secttor plan that prio oritises investment in fossil-fuellled power gene
eration
and ttransport infrastructure, and commits the counttry to achieving a 15% share of renewables in final energy
consu umption by 2020. While there area some effortss to increase the e use of renewa ables (such as re
reduced taxes fo
or the
use oof solar), policies to reduce the cost and furthe er promote the deployment
d of re
enewables are rrequired to achieve
arget, and with that an improve
this ta ement in its trilem
mma ranking an nd balance.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 21.1 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 3,49
96 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.12 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 6,872)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 59 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 35 | 5

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 20.7

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.14 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 14 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
C
CROATIA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
1
31 29 29 BBA
balance scoore
29 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 47
7 43 41 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 44
4 44 43 B
Environmmental
4
34 28 26 A
sustainability
BBA
A Contextual
9
49 44 54
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Croattia maintains itss position at rank 29. The counttrys trilemma performance is well
w balanced, w
with environmental
ainability receiving a particularly
susta y high score, ressulting in a lette
er grade of BBA.

In 2013 the governm ment adopted a National Action Plan (NAP), rev vising the 2020 target for renewwable energy soources
(RES S) in line with ma
arket changes and
a the decline in energy consu umption. Already in 2012 the shhare of RES in gross
final cconsumption am mounted to 16.88%. The countryy is seeking to in ntroduce more flexible
f and diveersified sources of
gas bby developing sttrategic gas infrrastructure to en
nsure stability off supply. Among
g the most notaable projects aree the
Ionian Adriatic Pipeliine (IAP) and th
he LNG terminall on Krk island.

Energgy efficiency is playing a key ro


ole in the overalll strategy of the
e country. With the
t 2009 Energyy Strategy, the
Natio
onal Energy Efficciency Program mme, and the Firrst National Ene ergy Efficiency Action
A Plan, thee country set the
e
targe
et of reducing fin
nal energy consumption in 2016 6 by 19.77 PJ (p petajoule), and in 2020 by 22.776 PJ, with a vieew to
boostting security of energy supply, competitivenesss of the energy sector and susttainable developpment.

Furth
hermore, attentio
on has increasin
ngly shifted tow oying highly efficcient central he
wards energy effficiency by deplo eating
syste
ems and therma al energy genera
ation in cogenerration plants.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 28.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 21,8
880 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,393)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 82

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.18 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 11.2

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.22 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -0.2

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 28 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
C
CYPRUS
S

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
6
76 64 60 DBB
balance scoore
60 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 115 116 112 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 67
7 58 58 B
Environmmental
1
41 38 32 B
sustainability
DBB
B Contextual
0
60 43 38
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Cypru us improves by 4 places in thiss years Index, to


o rank 60. While
e it performs we
ell in terms of ennergy equity and
d
envirronmental susta
ainability, it ranks
s low in the ene
ergy security dim
mension, resultin
ng in a balance score of DBB.

The mmajor energy isssue in Cyprus is e natural gas offfshore field in the Cyprus Excluusive Economic Zone
s to develop the
(EEZ an preparations for the development and produuction stage, following
Z). The Aphrodite project, the firrst runner, bega
the announcement of o its commercia ality in 2015. Th e block is estim
mated to contain over 125 billionn cubic metres of
o gas.
Explooration of four other
o blocks is being conducted d by ENI/KOGAS S and Total.

As off July 2016, eigh


ht energy companies have mad de expressions of interest for th
he exploration li cencing rights in
three
e offshore blockss. The developm ment of the gas field will bring new
n opportunitiees to the Cypruss energy sector and
national financial sta
ability. On the otther hand, markketing the gas coould prove a challenge in the fuuture because of o
comp petition from neiighbouring projeects in Israel an
nd Egypt which have
h made the largest offshoree natural gas
disco
overies in the Me editerranean.

The eelectrical interco


onnection with Greece
G and Isra
ael will be the ne
ext major challenge in the Cyprriot energy secto or.
The Israel and Greece interconnecttions are due to be completed in 2019 and 202 20 respectively. The project will
effecttively contribute
e to the security of energy suppply and reduction in CO2 emissions by allowingg the countries in the
regio
on to use natural gas deposits as a well as renew wable energy so ources for electrricity generationn. It is therefore
expected that the co ountrys energy security
s and envvironmental perrformance will im mprove in the cooming years.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 10.6 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 30,7
734 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 2,321)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) N.A.. | N.A.

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.31 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 4.5

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.28 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 0.3

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 121 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
CZEC
CH REPU
UBLIC

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
3
23 21 19 AAB
balance scoore
19 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 17
7 14 14 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 13
3 8 5 A
Environmmental
3
63 62 54 B
sustainability
AAB
B Contextual
2
32 30 29
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

The C Czech Republicc improves by 2 places, to rank 19. The country ys trilemma performance is weell balanced, witth a
particcularly high score in energy equ nks 5th worldwide. This results
uity, where it ran s in a balance sccore of AAB.

In 2015 the Czech government issu ued several enerrgy policies: 1) the
t update of th he State Energyy Concept of the e
Czecch Republic (SEK); 2) the National Action Plan for Smart Grids s; 3) the Nationa
al Action Plan foor Energy Efficie
ency;
and 44) the National Plan
P on Nuclearr Energy Develo
opment.

The n national energy policy is based on: constructio on of new nuclea ar power genera ation units on thhe existing sites of
nucleear power plantss; gradual transition from mostlly extracted lignite deposits tow wards natural gaas and renewable
energ gy sources for electricity
e and heeat production, with domestic coal
c remaining a stable segmennt of the country ys
energ gy mix (decreassing from 45% to oday to less tha an 20% in the co
oming decades)); medium-term stabilising of
comb bined heat and power
p (CHP), provision of coal//fuels for centra
al heating; increa
asing efficiencyy in energy production
and m making considerable efficiencie es in use of all kkinds of energy; and reconstrucction and develoopment of netwo ork
infrasstructure (electrricity, gas) to ensure system inttegration of dece entralised produuction, operationnal reliability, as
s well
as anncillary and transit services.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 38.0 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 32,1
167 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 2,312)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.17 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 6.5

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.37 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -1.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 739 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
D ENMAR
RK

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
1 1 1 AAA
balance scoore
1 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 1 1 1 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 15
5 13 10 A
Environmmental
6 5 6 A
sustainability
AAA
A Contextual
1
11 12 11
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Denmmark tops the In


ndex this year, ra
anking 1st not oonly overall, but also on the ene
ergy security dim
mension. Its trile
emma
perfo
ormance is exceellently balanced
d, resulting in a letter grade of AAA.
A

In Maarch 2012 a new w Energy Agree ement was reach hed in Denmark k. The Agreeme ent contains a wwide range of
ambittious initiatives. This should briing Denmark clooser to reaching
g the target of 100% renewablee energy in the energy
e
and ttransport sectorrs by 2050 by coommitting to largge investments up to 2020 in energy efficiencyy, renewable en nergy
and tthe overall energ gy system. Targgets to reach byy 2020 include approximately
a 50% of electricityy consumption
supplied by wind pow wer, and more than
t 35% of fina
al energy consuumption supplied d from renewabble energy sourc ces.

To ovvercome the cha allenges and reach its ambitiou


us targets of bec
coming indepen
ndent of fossil fuuels and reducinng
CO2 eemissions, Danish policymakerrs are focusing on the implications of: being fossil fuel free forr the transport sector;
s
the fu
uture role of thee Danish natural gas grid; and th
he introduction of huge amounts of fluctuating renewable ene ergy in
the electricity grid.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 22.5 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 46,635 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 1,597)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) N.A.. | N.A.

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.40 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 5.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.18 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -2.8

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 104 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
E CUADO
OR

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
1
51 50 50 BBC
balance scoore
50 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 51
1 49 50 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 47
7 49 46 B
Environmmental
0
70 72 79 C
sustainability
BBC
C Contextual
8
98 96 101
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Ecuaador maintains itts place from las


st year at rank 5
50. Its trilemma performance is
s well balanced ooverall, with the
e
envirronmental susta
ainability dimenssion lagging slig
ghtly behind the other two, resulting in a balancce score of BBCC.

The E Ecuadorian govvernment has be een pushing sevveral initiatives to


t create a moree sustainable ennergy sector. Th he
Ecua adorian Nationall Strategic Plannning (National PPlan for Good Liiving), sets the following
f goals: increase of the
e
share e of renewable energy
e in the electricity genera
ation mix; reduce ports; change thhe current profile of
e oil-derived imp
oil exxports to higher value-added prroducts; increasse of effectivene ess and efficienc
cy of the transpoort sector; reduc
ce
lossees of generation and distributionn; and an overa all increase in en
nergy efficiency.

For th
his purpose, the
e government iss currently develloping several projects,
p which include: 1) the cconstruction of eight
e
high--capacity hydroe
electric power plants; 2) projectts to promote th
he installation off renewable powwer plants; 3) the
change from gas-based cooking to efficient inductio on-based cooke er appliances; and 4) the constrruction of a largge oil
refine
ery.

The a
ambitious policie
es developed by the governmeent will ensure th
he sustainability
y of the Ecuadorrian energy sec
ctor by
prom
moting improvemment on each of the three energ
gy trilemma dime ensions.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 39.1 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 11,388 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 4,260)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 97 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 87

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 12.4

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.28 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 1,184
4 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
EGYPT
T

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
4
64 72 68 CBB
balance scoore
68 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 94
4 93 90 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 58
8 65 60 B
Environmmental
4
44 44 49 B
sustainability
CBB
B Contextual
06
10 109 113
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Egyppt improves by 4 places, to rank k 68. The countrry receives a go


ood score in the energy equity aand environmen
ntal
susta
ainability dimenssions, but lags behind
b regardin g energy securiity, scoring a ba
alance grade of CBB.

As th
he most populou us country in No
orth Africa, Egyp
pt is keen to imp
prove its energy y sustainability. TTherefore, enerrgy
has bbecome one of the t most importtant topics in reccent years. Due e to the political transition the coountry is going
throu
ugh, challenges related to energ gy security needd to be overcom me. These challe enges include aan insufficient
electrricity capacity to
o meet the demand and no rese erve capacities, low energy efficiency especiaally in the industrial
sectoor, and the slow progress of new w and renewab le energy projec cts due to the in
ncremental costt gap between fo ossil
fuel a
and renewable technologies.
t

Policyymakers are ad ddressing the following energy d developments: 1) expansion off new power cappacities at the le east
costlyy location; 2) divversification of power
p generatio
on by expanding g wind farms, annd introducing ssolar PV and so olar
thermmal generation to benefit from one o of the best ssolar belt locatio
ons in the world; 3) improvemeent of the energy y tariff
structture to encourage energy savin ng measures; 4)) encouragement of the private e sector to invesst in the develop
pment
of energy infrastructu ure including renewable energyy projects using g build, own, opeerate (BOO) schhemes; and
5) exxtension of the re egional intercon nnection power grid capacity beetween Egypt and Arab, Africa and Europe.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 39.9 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 10,891 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.06 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,215)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 13.1

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.24 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 5.8

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 2,040 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
E
ESTONIA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
8
48 44 40 ABD
balance scoore
40 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 39
9 27 22 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 54
4 53 50 B
Environmmental
07
10 107 111 D
sustainability
ABD
D Contextual
0
20 18 20
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Estonnia improves byy 4 places in this


s years Index, tto rank 40. While it receives good scores in ennergy security an
nd
energgy equity, its po
oor score in the environmental
e ssustainability dim
mension results
s in an imbalancced trilemma
perfo
ormance, with a score of ABD.

Eston nia has successsfully improved its security of en nergy supply byy diversifying its energy importss through greate er
intercconnection with its Baltic neighbours and incre easing domestic c electricity production capacity to exceed dom mestic
dema and. However, the
t current low oil o prices put pre essure on Eston nian shale oil prroducers, and innvestments in new
produ uction capacity have been put on o hold, which m may result in a negative
n impactt on energy seccurity. Further seecurity
conce erns are presennted by the threa at of cyber-attaccks and the incrreasing number of extreme weaather events.
Mean nwhile, Estonia still struggles with
w environmenttal sustainability y. To remedy this, the governm ment is now
introdducing a markett premium mode el to support neww renewable en nergy projects, while
w existing prrojects will bene
efit
from the old feed-in tariffs until 20200.

Policyymakers should d focus on succe essfully implem


menting these tarriff reforms and find other wayss to increase thee
sharee of renewable energy
e to impro
ove the environmmental sustainability dimension of the trilemmaa and to decreas se the
effectt that fluctuation
ns in global oil prices
p have on eenergy security. Meanwhile, the e existing infrast
structure will hav
ve to
be re
endered more re esilient to cyberaattacks and extrreme weather events.
e

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 28.1 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 28,0
095 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.11 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 3,302)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 69

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.18 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 10.2

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.74 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 1.0

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
E
ETHIOPI A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
21
12 120 1118 DDC
balance scoore
118 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 111 107 102 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 117 118 117 D
Environmmental
1
91 87 90 C
sustainability
DDC
C Contextual
112 114 111
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Ethio
opia improves byy 2 places, fromm rank 120 in 20015 to rank 118 in 2016. While attaining
a low sccores on the who
ole,
envirronmental susta
ainability is the countrys
c stronge
est trilemma dim
mension, resulting in a balancee score of DDC.

Ethio
opias GDP grow wth of about 11%
% for the last eig e years and population growth aat an average ra
ght consecutive ate of
2.5%
% annually, both contributed to increased energ gy demand. Through the Growth and Transform mation Plan, Ethiopia
aims at becoming a middle-income country by 2025 5. The Climate--Resilient Green
n Economy (CR RGE) strategy focuses
nhancing develo
on en opment with min
nimum carbon e emission. The vision for the Eth
hiopian energy ssector is to ensu
ure
accesss to affordable dern energy for all citizens by 2025
e, clean and mod 2 come a renewabble energy hub in the
and to bec
Easteern Africa Regio
on.

While e Ethiopia has abundant


a renewwable energy sou urces, the country imports petroleum fuels andd coal. Over the e past
ten ye ears the volume e of petroleum imports has bee en growing at ap pproximately 8%% per year. Projeections indicate e that
unlesss action is takeen to change thee traditional devvelopment path, annual petroleu um and fuel woood consumption n will
rise ssignificantly. Pollicymakers needd to address: 1)) high levels of energy
e poverty; 2) low private ssector participattion
and ccompetition; 3) high
h dependenc ce on and unsusstainable use off biomass; 4) high dependencee on imported
petro
oleum fuels; 5) wasteful
w and ine
efficient energy pproduction, tran
nsportation, and use; and 6) devevelopment of
renew wable energy te echnologies, ene ergy conservatio on and sustaina able forest and woodland
w manaaging practices.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 14.7 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 1,62
26 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.32 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 3,971)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 23 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 27 | 5

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.03 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 21.4

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.08 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.2

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 22 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
F
FINLAND
D

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
5 3 8 AAB
balance scoore
8 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 2 2 3 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 24
4 21 24 A
Environmmental
8
78 74 71 B
sustainability
AAB
B Contextual
3 2 2
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Finland drops 5 placces in this years


s Index, to rank 8. Finlands energy trilemma is
s well balanced,, and it places 3rd
3
globaally in the energy security dimension, resulting in a letter grade of AAB.

Whilee a majority of th
he countrys connventional therm mal power gene eration is made up of highly efficcient combined heat
and ppower productio on, Finlands env
vironmental susstainability score e still needs to be
b improved. Too this effect, thee
government has rece ently stepped up its efforts in th
he renewables sector,
s making 80m
available to support biofu uel
and nnew energy tech hnology projectss. This is part off a long-term pla
an to completely y phase out eneergy production from
coal aand to halve oil imports by 2030. Imports of ha ard coal have already decrease ed in 2015, whicch could have a
positiive effect on the
e trilemmas eneergy security dim mension. Furtheer, the country has
h already mett its 38% 2020
renewwables target un nder the EUs Renewable
R Enerrgy Directive, with the countrys s domestic strattegy calling for a
furthe
er increase of thhe renewables share
s to 50% byy 2030.

Finnish policymakerss must now ens sure that these ppromising reform
ms are impleme
ented in an effecctive way.
If succcessful, the cou
untrys ranking is expected to im
mprove in future
e reports.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 26.5 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 40,601 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.13 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 3,692)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.20 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 3.0

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.28 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -1.0

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
F
FRANCE
E

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
0
10 9 6 AAA
balance scoore
6 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 24
4 21 16 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 10
0 12 9 A
Environmmental
1
11 13 11 A
sustainability
AAA
A Contextual
1
21 22 19
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Francce improves by 3 places to rank 6. The countryy balances the trilemma


t excelle
ently and placess in the top 10
ally in the energy equity dimens
globa sion, resulting in
n a balance score of AAA.

Francce has very little


e domestic oil and natural gas pproduction and relies heavily on imports. To reeduce import
dependency, France e has pursued a vigorous policyy of nuclear pow wer developmennt since the mid--1970s and noww has
by far the largest nucclear generatingg capacity of an
ny country in Europe, and is sec cond only to thee United States
dwide. Nuclear power
world p constitute
es about 79% o of total electricity
y generation.

Receent energy policies include meaasures and targe ets to improve energy
e y, boost renewaable power and tackle
efficiency
clima
ate change. Thee government re ecently passed a new energy transition law with the aim to cutt Frances relian nce on
nucle
ear energy in favvour of renewab
bles. The legislaation includes th
he commitment to increase the target price of
carbo
on to 56 per to
on in 2020 and 100
per ton in 2
2030.The goverrnment has also o revised social tariffs for electrricity
and g
gas to counteracct the increase in energy pricess.

Key cchallenges for France


F come witth the implemen ntation phase off its policies and
d efforts must goo towards meetting
the ta
argets set. The coexistence of regulated tariffss and market prices for electricity could also caause friction for
produucers.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 19.4 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 39,678 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 728)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.23 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 7.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.15 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -1.2

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 19 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
G ERMAN
NY

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
4 5 5 AAA
balance scoore
5 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 6 6 7 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 20
0 22 15 A
Environmmental
4
24 29 31 A
sustainability
AAA
A Contextual
4
14 16 15
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Germmany maintains its 2015 position, at rank 5. Th e countrys ene


ergy trilemma is excellently balaanced, and it pla
aces
7th globally regardin
ng energy security, for an overa
all balance score
e of AAA.

The m
most recent poliicy developmen nt in Germany, in nitiated before 2010,
2 is the Gerrman Energy Trransition, targeting
susta
ainability and foccusing on a stro
ong increase in power generatio on from renewaable sources, a rreduction of primmary
energ
gy usage and CO C 2 emissions. The
T 2011 decisiion to phase out nuclear by 202 22 constitutes a challenge to
Germmanys energy mix.
m Eight out off 17 facilities we ere closed imme ediately, one was closed in 201 5, and the rema aining
eight nuclear power plants will be phased out gradu ually over the next seven yearss. Due to low whholesale prices and
regulatory uncertaintty, investors are
e reluctant to invvest in new conventional power plants, which w will still be need
ded to
securre energy dema and.

ncreased share of renewables, the Renewable


For in e Energy Law (E EEG) guarantee es a fixed price, independent off
dema and and supply for renewable power
p plants. Thhe law is disabliing market mechanisms, allowiing the sector to o rely
on suubsidies rather than
t encouragin
ng competition ffor innovative, efficient
e and inex xpensive technoologies. Subsidiies for
renewwable energy an nd investments in grid infrastruucture to integrate the increasing amounts of voolatile renewable
energgy into the syste
em have led andd will continue tto lead to higherr electricity price
es. Policymakerrs must set the right
frameework towards a free and efficie
ent European e electricity market to limit the burrden.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 30.3 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 47,268 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,387)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.40 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 3.7

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.24 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -0.8

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 28,355 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
GHANA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
5
95 97 99 BDC
balance scoore
99 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 32
2 36 35 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 10
04 105 106 D
Environmmental
5
75 78 81 C
sustainability
BDC
C Contextual
0
80 83 91
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Ghanna drops 2 place es in this years Index, from rannk 97 in 2015 to


o rank 99 in 2016. While the couuntry achieves good
g
resultts in the energyy security dimennsion, it lags beh
hind regarding energy
e equity, re
esulting in a ballance score of BDC.
B

In ord
der to improve energy
e security, energy equity aand environmen ntal sustainabilitty Ghana needss to address a
numb ber of related ch
hallenges, such as: 1) the lack of a credible, su
ustained and foc cused energy po
policy; 2) the inability
to exe
ecute policies; 3)
3 governmenta al interference; a
and 4) ineffectivve regulatory authorities.

Receent policy develo


opments include e: the enactmen nt of Electricity Regulations,
R 2008 (L.I 1937), wwhich is intended
d to
provide for the plann
ning, expansion, safety criteria, reliability and cost-effectivenes
c ss of the Intercoonnected
Transsmission System m, and to regulaate the wholesa ale electricity maarket; the enactm
ment of the Rennewable Energy y Act,
2011 (Act 832) to im
mprove the development, manag gement and utilisation of renew wable energy soources for produ uction
of heat and power inn an efficient and
d environmenta ally-sustainable manner; and the incorporation of Ghana Gas
Comp pany in July 20111 with the resp
ponsibility to buiild, own, and opperate infrastructure required foor gathering,
proceessing, transporrting and marketing natural gass in Ghana.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 27.7 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 4,20
01 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 3,991)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 61 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 28 | 5

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 23.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.16 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 7.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 109 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
G
GREECE
E

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
7
37 37 33 BBA
balance scoore
33 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 84
4 77 56 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 45
5 46 44 B
Environmmental
1
21 23 19 A
sustainability
BBA
A Contextual
5
55 48 46
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Greece improves byy 4 places, to ran nk 33. The coun


ntrys energy trillemma performa
ance is well balaanced overall,
resultting in a letter grade
g of BBA.

Greece has put in place a number of o policy instrum


ments to meet thhe ever-increasing electricity deemand, favourin ng the
markket uptake of ren
newable energy y sources. The aaim is also to atttempt to reduce
e the share of cooal in electricity
generation, which cuurrently accountts for 40% of poower generation. If successful, such
s plans can help to improve e the
counttrys energy seccurity and enviro
onmental sustaiinability trilemma performance.

A new w remuneration policy framewo ork for renewablles allows feed--in tariffs (FITs) only for small P
PV systems, while
large installations paarticipate via com
mpetitive schemmes. This requirres healthy competition among electricity gene erators
and eencourages renewable energy investors to ste ep in without gen
nerous FITs. On nly 7 MW of new w PV was installed in
the first half of 2015.. To revive the stalled
s domesticc PV market, thee country has im mplemented a nnet-metering sch heme,
appliccable only to so
olar PV installations for self-con
nsumption (both rooftop and gro ound-mounted ssystems).

The G
Government is obstructing
o g control of the national electric
the liberalisation off the energy marrket, maintaining city
comppany the Public Power Corpooration (PPC), ow wner of the natiional transmission system operrator.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 15.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 26,6
680 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.06 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 1,696)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.24 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 6.9

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.28 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -1.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 2,109 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
HO
ONG KO NG

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
8
38 40 37 DAA
balance scoore
37 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 12
20 121 117 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 26
6 29 31 A
Environmmental
0
20 20 20 A
sustainability
DAA
A Contextual
9 8 7
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Hongg Kong improvess by 3 places in


n this years Inde
ex, to rank 37. The
T country rece eives excellent scores in the en nergy
equityy and environm
mental sustainab
bility dimensionss, but lags behin ergy security, reesulting in a balance
nd regarding ene
score
e of DAA.

The eeconomy has sccarce indigenou us energy sourcces and about 25 5% of electricity
y is imported. Too secure clean and
a
reliab
ble electricity su
upply, Hong Konng signed a Mem morandum of Understanding (M MOU) on energyy cooperation with
w
mainland China in August
A 2008, guaaranteeing suppply of nuclear en
nergy and enha anced supply of natural gas. Th he
succeessful completio on and commisssioning of the H ong Kong Branch Line of the Second
S WestE East Natural Gas s
Pipeline has helped ensure a stable e and secure suupply of natural gas
g from the ma ainland for poweer generation. The
T
government has put in place a contingency plan forr oil in the event of disruption. A code of practiice has also bee en put
ace that requiress major oil comp
in pla ain a minimum of 30 days supply of gas oil annd naphtha.
panies to mainta

In the
e 1990s, natural gas for electric was introduced for diversity of supply.
city generation w s Moreoveer, with the
introd
duction of LPG vehicles
v aroundd the year 2000,, LPG has beenn used as a fuel for more than 220,000 taxis and
d
light b
buses.

With the 2013 Clean


n Air Plan for Ho
ong Kong, the G
Government has
s implemented a series of meassures to improve
e
uality.
air qu

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 7.3 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 56,719 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.03 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 1,961)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) N.A.. | N.A.

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 11.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.14 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) N.A.

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
IC
CELAND
D

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
3
13 12 15 BAA
balance scoore
15 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 54
4 54 57 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 17
7 17 19 A
Environmmental
1 2 2 A
sustainability
BAA
A Contextual
7
17 17 17
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Icelannd drops 3 placces, to rank 15. Iceland perform


ms well across th
he board, with environmental
e suustainability being a
particcular strength. This
T results in a balance score of BAA.

With a big share of renewables,


r Iceland currently d
does not have a spot market forr electricity. Pricces are negotiatted via
a pow
wer purchase ag greement (PPA). State-owned Landsvirkjun is by far the large est energy comppany in Iceland,
providing approxima ately 75% of all the
t electricity prroduced in Icelaand (12.6 GWh annually).
a Landdsvirkjun is
onsible for more
respo e than 96% of all hydro generattion, and 11% of hermal output. 880% of electricity
o the total geoth
Landsvirkjun genera ates is sold to en ong-term contracts. The remainning 20% is bought by
nergy intensive industries via lo
publicc utilities and th
he Icelandic Transmission Syste em Operator (TSO).

Acco
ording to the Nattional Renewable Energy Actio on Plan for 2020
0 (NREAP), elec ctricity generatioon from geotherrmal
poweer plants is expe
ected to increase by 12% from 5.24 TWh in 20 014 to 5.8 TWh in 2020, which ccorresponds to about
80 MW installed elecctrical capacity. Recently, the p
possibility emerg
ged of exporting
g electricity viaa HVDC subma arine
es to mainland
cable d Europe.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 23.6 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 46,547 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.22 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 2,671)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 2.1

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.15 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -1.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
INDIA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
0
90 92 91 BCC
balance scoore
91 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 50
0 60 51 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 95
5 93 93 C
Environmmental
8
98 96 97 C
sustainability
BCC
C Contextual
01
10 105 100
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

India improves by 1 place in the 20116 Index to rankk 91. The country receives a ba
alance score of B for energy seecurity
and rreceives lower scores
s in the energy equity andd environmental sustainability dimensions, resuulting in an overrall
balannce score of BC
CC.

India's Intended Nationally Determinned Contributionns (INDCs) include; reduction of o emission inteensity of GDP by y
33335 % by 2030 froom 2005 levels; about 40% cum mulative electricc power installedd capacity from non-fossil fuel based
energgy resources byy 2030, with the help of technol ogy transfer andd low-cost international financee from the Green
Climaate Fund (GCF)); creation of additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billlion tonnes of CO
C 2e through addditional forest cover
c
by 20030.

Rece ent policy develo opments and im mpacts include: 1


1) phased imple ementation of 1775 GW RE powe wer capacity by 2022;
2
2) UDDAY to turn arou und DISCOMS; 3) DDUGJY sccheme for rural electrification; 4) EPAR for lim miting emissionss from
coal-ffired stations; 5)
5 leapfrogging to latest emissioon standards in road transport sector;
s 6) help fo
for boosting of
dome estic oil and gass exploration and production seector; 7) tighter LPG
L subsidy be
eneficiary targetting via DBT; 8)
impro oved availabilityy of coal through
h transparent co
oal block auction cle of PAT for i ndustrial energy
n; 9) second cyc y
efficie
ency notified with wider scope; 10) DSM throu ugh large-scale replacement by y LEDs; 11) smaart cities.

Key cchallenges inclu


ude: 1) DISCOMM reforms yieldin ng expected res
sults; 2) growth in manufacturinng through Make
e-in
India; 3) expanding energy
e access; 4) integrating la
arge RE capacitty.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 30.1 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 6,089 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 779)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 75 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 77
7 | 14

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.08 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 19.7

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.32 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 6.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 44,26
62 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
IRA
AN (ISL AMIC REPUBL
R IC)

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
9
79 80 78 BBD
balance scoore
78 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 75
5 81 58 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 33
3 37 40 B
Environmmental
116 118 119 D
sustainability
BBD
D Contextual
07
10 107 105
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Iran improves by 2 places


p in this years Index, to ra
ank 78. The country performs well
w in the energgy security and energy
e
equityy dimensions, but
b lags behind regarding enviro onmental sustainability, resultin
ng in a balance score of BBD.

Home e of the worlds fourth largest proved


p crude oil reserves and second
s largest natural
n gas reseerves, Irans ene
ergy
secto
or has not mana aged to develop, due to internattional sanctionss. After sanctions were lifted in early 2016, Iran
ns oil
exports have tripled compared to fig gures from late 22015, now exceeeding 2 million barrels per dayy.

Furth
her, Iran has ma
anaged to attracct significant fore
eign investmentt and more efficient technologiees for energy
generation and transsformation are now
n being empl oyed. This inclu
udes a contract with Turkey to bbuild 5,000 MW W of
advanced combined-cycle power plants with aboutt 60% efficiency y, to be complete ed within the neext three years.

The ccountry is also taking


t steps to address
a the trile
emmas environmental sustaina ability dimensionn, with plans to install
5 GWW of both solar panels
p and wind d turbines by 20 021. These could d help to renderr Irans renewabble energy
infrasstructure more resilient
r to extre
eme weather eve ents: recurring droughts
d have significant
s negat
ative effects on the
t
counttrys hydroelectric power plants s. Due to drough hts in early 2016, hydropower plants
p are only aable to operate at
aroun nd 15% capacityy.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 38.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 17,3
366 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.15 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 866)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 98 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 13.7

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.53 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.7

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 21,433 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
IRAQ

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
8
68 69 74 BBD
balance scoore
74 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 68
8 59 64 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 52
2 54 53 B
Environmmental
2
92 92 100 D
sustainability
BBD
D Contextual
118 118 118
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

In this years Index, Iraq drops 5 pla


aces, to rank 74
4. The country reeceives good sc cores regarding energy securityy and
energgy equity, with environmental
e sustainability beiing Iraqs lowes
st scoring trilemm
ma dimension. TThis results in a
balannce score of BBD.

The lraqi energy secctor is still completely owned byy the public secttor. The energy sector is nearlyy totally dependent on
oil an
nd gas revenuess for electricity generation,
g tran sportation and distribution.
d Thee sector is still faacing the challe
enge
of the
e highly expensive and destruc ctive war againstt lSlS terrorists, and also the ve
ery low oil priceses, and hence ve ery
limite
ed government revenues.
r Moreover, the contin w the Kurdistan Regional Govvernment (KRG)
nued disputes with
rendeer oil/gas production and exporrt and hence an nual federal rev venues are not clearly
c defined.

Other minor challeng ges include risin


ng energy dema and internally an nd also improvement of environnment protection n
legisllations. Iraq is ta
ackling these chhallenges throug gh diversificatioon of economic resources,
r and tthrough better
explooitation of gas and gas-linked in ndustry. In addittion, it is intende
ed that a good portion
p of the rev
evenues will be
invessted in the non-e energy economy, including indu ustry, agriculturre, trade, transport and educatioon.

Improovement of energy efficiency haas priority in the


e recently updatted renewable and
a energy strattegy. The nation
nal
targe
et is for renewab
ble energy to ex
xceed 5% of tota al electricity prod
duction by 2030
0.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 63.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 14,8
895 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.05 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 4,669)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 98 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 91

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 26.7

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.29 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.2

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 22,014 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
I RELAND
D

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
7
17 19 20 CAA
balance scoore
20 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 70
0 75 77 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 18
8 16 16 A
Environmmental
9 10 7 A
sustainability
CAA
A Contextual
0
10 11 10
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Irelan
nd ranks 20th in n this years Inde
ex. The countryy performs well regarding
r energgy equity and ennvironmental
sustaainability, placing 7th globally in
n the latter. Thiss results in a ballance score of CAA.
C

In 2014, Ireland impo orted 85% of itss energy needs. At the same tim me, total primary
y energy use in Ireland fell by 0.5%
0
in 2014. Fossil fuels accounted for 90% 9 of all energ
gy used in Irelan
nd with oil rema
aining as the dom minant fuel source
(47%%), followed by gas
g (28%), coal (9%), renewablle energy (8%) and a peat (6%), with the balance ce (2%) comprising
electrricity imports an
nd energy from waste.
w Ireland h
has set one of th
he worlds mostt ambitious reneewable energy
targe
ets: to produce 40%
4 of its electrricity from renew wable energy by y 2020, with the majority of thiss expected to co
ome
from wind-powered generation.
g

A full review of Irish national energyy policy was und dertaken and the outcome is se et out in the Deccember 2015 White
W
Papeer; Irelands Traansition to a Low
w Carbon Energ gy Future. It env
visages a reduction of 8095% % in energy-related
emisssions by 2050. TheT White Pape er identifies the non-traded sec ctor as the prima
ary focus of govvernment policy,
whichh would involve decarbonising the heat and tra ansport sectors..

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 25.6 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 54,654 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.05 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 4,440)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.34 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 7.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.18 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -1.3

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 8 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
ISRAEL
L

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
0
30 34 34 CAA
balance scoore
34 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 79
9 85 85 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 39
9 35 36 A
Environmmental
6
36 37 29 A
sustainability
CAA
A Contextual
3
23 24 22
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Israel maintains its place


p in this yea
ars ranking, at 3
34. The country performs well in
n the energy eqquity and
envirronmental sustaainability dimenssions, receiving its lowest score
e in energy secu
urity. This resultts in a balance
scoree of CAA.

The d discovery of offsshore natural gaas reserves andd underground oil


o shale and the e subsequent beeginning of
explooration will chan nge the countrys
s energy landsccape, as Israel relies
r heavily on
n fossil fuel impoorts to meet its
growing energy need ds. As a country
y that has been largely dependent on imports to t meet its needds, these reserv ves
are ccritical to the cou
untrys energy security.
s

Receent policy develo opments includee: 1) the Nationa


al Energy Efficie
ency Programm
me; and 2) a targget for renewable
electrricity generation
n set at 10% by
b 2020 to hellp counteract increasing energy
y demand and rreduce GHG
emisssions.

The g greatest challen


nges for policym
makers are to: 1)) ensure that pro
oduction of new
w resources is caarried out efficie
ently;
2) set a binding targeet for reducing GHG
G emissionss; and 3) closelyy monitor the implementation off the energy
efficie
ency programm me.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 31.4 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 35,432 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.05 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 3,383)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 4.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.27 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 2.7

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 165 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
ITALY

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
4
24 23 17 AAA
balance scoore
17 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 25
5 23 19 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 32
2 33 32 A
Environmmental
9
19 19 14 A
sustainability
AAA
A Contextual
9
39 40 40
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Italy iimproves by 6 places


p in this ye
ears Index, to ra
ank 17, earning a perfect score across the boaard (overall bala
ance
scoree of AAA).

Italy h
has one of the most
m efficient th
hermoelectric ge
eneration system
ms in Europe an nd the energy mmix for power
generation is domina ated by natural gas and renewa able energy (gaas 48%, renewable 28%, coal 1 5%, oil 3%, other
7%). Energy efficiency improved in the residential, commercial and d transport sectors, with impresssive achievements
e reduction of GHG
in the G emissions anda water polluttion between 20005 and 2013.

Receent policy develo opments include e: an extension of the incentive


es scheme for PV installations, energy efficienc cy,
seism
mic retrofitting off buildings, build
ding renovation s and energy sttorage systems;; Conto Energiaa, a mechanism
supporting the produ uction of energy y from solar PV and solar thermmal plants in builldings and businnesses; Conto
Term
mico 2.0, which encourages
e mea asures to increa
ase energy effic
ciency and the production
p of theermal energy fro
om
renew
wable sources; a 20-year plan for funding non--solar renewable energy such as a wind, geotheermal, biomass and
therm
modynamic. The ese measures aim to lower the burden of incen ntives on energy y bills, increase the share of
renew
wables in therm mal uses, and im mprove efficiencyy.

Increased interconne ection of the Italian natural gass market with EUU markets is exp
pected to increaase Italian energ
gy
securrity, also lowerin
ng natural gas prices
p in the who olesale market. The government has also resttored the minimum
limit o
of 12 miles from
m the coast for off-shore
o oil and gas drilling acttivities.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 23.5 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 35,896 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 886)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.31 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 6.7

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.19 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) -1.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 124 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
JAPAN

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
8
28 30 30 CAB
balance scoore
30 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 61
1 83 78 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 38
8 23 23 A
Environmmental
7
37 40 41 B
sustainability
CAB
B Contextual
9
19 21 21
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

In this years Index, Japan maintains its place at ra


ank 30. The country performs well
w in the energyy equity and
envirronmental sustaainability dimens behind in terms of energy securrity, resulting in a balance score
sions, but lags b e
of CAAB.

The ggovernment hass amended the five-year-old


f fee
ed-in tariff (FIT) system, with ch
hanges to be inttroduced in Aprril
2017. One of the critticisms of the cu
urrent FIT syste
em is that purcha asing prices were set high. To aaddress this criticism,
the new FIT system introduces a bid dding system fo or the purchasing price from large-scale PVs suuch as mega-so olar
farmss.

The N
Nuclear Regulation Authority (N
NRA) approved the safety measures of Sendai, Takahama annd Ikata nuclearr
powe
er plants based on new safety standards.
s While 0 MW) started itts operation in
e Ikata nuclear plant unit 3 (890
Augu
ust 2016, Takahama nuclear pla ants (2 units, 87
70 MW each) we ere operational in early 2016, bbut have been
temporarily shut dow
wn.

Altho
ough some challlenges might be e encountered in n restarting the remaining nucleear plants, manyy of these plantts are
expected to restart in
n the long run and
a Japans ene ergy security sco
ore will improve. Additionally, thhe plant owners
s are
expecting a lifetime extension
e of nuclear plants from
m 40 years to at most 60 years s.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 26.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 37,322 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,015)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.11 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 4.8

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.28 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 0.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 264 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
J
JORDAN
N

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
2
62 67 75 DBC
balance scoore
75 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 93
3 100 106 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 48
8 50 52 B
Environmmental
6
76 83 82 C
sustainability
DBC
C Contextual
1
71 68 72
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Jorda
an drops 8 place
es, from rank 677 in 2015 to rannk 75 in 2016. Energy equity is the countrys sttrongest trilemm
ma
ergy security is its weakest, ressulting in a balance score of DB
dimension, while ene BC.

The mmajor current ch hallenges for the


e country are ann extremely highh dependence on o imports with over 95% of its
energgy demand annually being impo mports impose a heavy cost burrden, representi ng about 20% of
orted. These im o the
GDP in 2014. The Arab A Spring leav ability of supply of oil and naturral gas. Energy
ves the country iin constant insta
dema and is projected d to continue to grow
g between 557% annually with
w the flow of refugees, nationnal population
growtth, and expansion of developm ment projects. Th
he countrys currrent and future top priorities arre to achieve a
diverrsification of ene
ergy sources by introducing alteernative energy, exploiting dom mestic reserves, and switching fromf
import of Piped Natu ural Gas (PNG) to Liquefied Na atural Gas (LNG G).

The ccountry has bee


en attempting too increase the shhare of nuclear,, solar and wind power to 16% of the total energy
mix b
by 2020 comparred to 2% in 201 13, signing a $1 0bn deal for construction of 2,0000 MW nucleaar power reactorrs with
Russsian state-ownedd company Ros satom in March 2 hale reserve has been developped by the Jorda
2015. The oil sh an Oil
Shalee Company and d Shell with the expectation
e thatt shales will con
ntribute 14% to the nations eneergy mix in 2020 0. A
new LLNG terminal oppened in July 20015 to replace tthe import of oil and unstable PNG.
P This will allso contribute to
o
reduccing CO2 emissions as well as increasing enerrgy security.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 29.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 10,880 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 2,854)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 99 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 14.5

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.37 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.8

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 6 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
KAZ
ZAKHST
TAN

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
5
75 84 82 CBD
balance scoore
82 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 37
7 72 65 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 53
3 52 54 B
Environmmental
21
12 123 122 D
sustainability
CBD
D Contextual
6
56 60 50
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Kazaakhstan improvees by 2 places in


n this years Ind
dex, to rank 82. The
T country recceives good scoores regarding
energ
gy security and energy equity, but performs po ainability dimenssion, for a balan
oorly in the environmental susta nce
score
e of CBD.

Rece ent policy develo


opments in Kaza akhstan include
e: strengthening
g state institution
ns responsible ffor energy efficieency
in pro
oduction, extracction and consummption of energ
gy; clear and commprehensive en nergy saving proogrammes to re educe
the energy intensity of industry (a 25
5% reduction byy 2020 compare ed to 2008); the adoption of pollicies to supportt the
development and incclusion of availaable renewable energy sources s (RES) into the energy mix (rennewable and
altern b 2050 should provide 50% off the countrys electricity);
native sources by e and plans
p and progrrammes to facilitate
the m
modernisation off existing powerr generation, po
ower grids and oil
o refining installations. The divversification of th
he
generation portfolio will
w be enhance ed by Kazakhstaans Transition to
t a Green Econ nomy, approvedd by the Order of o the
Presiident of Kazakhstan in 2013.

Policyymakers will co
ontinue existing successful pracctices to maintaiin a favourable investment clim
mate, which allow ws
improovements to thee countrys trilem
mma balance, a nd attracts inve estment into the exploration andd production of
energgy resources forr export to worldd markets. Therre is a need to further develop power
p generatinng facilities by
introd
ducing cutting-e
edge technologie es that will not o mestic supply, but also enable tthe country to offer
only ensure dom
signifficant amounts of
o electricity to markets
m in neighhbouring countrries.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 36.0 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 25,8
877 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.12 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 5,555)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 77

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 8.0

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.69 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 6.0

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 28,66
63 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
KENYA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
07
10 107 1107 BDB
balance scoore
107 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 31
1 37 47 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 118 117 118 D
Environmmental
6
56 55 58 B
sustainability
BDB
B Contextual
4
94 93 89
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Kenyya maintains its place in this yea


ars index, at ra
ank 107. The country performs well
w in the energ rgy security and
envirronmental susta
ainability dimenssions, but receivves a balance sc
core of D in ene
ergy equity, for aan overall letter
gradee of BDB.

Kenyyas energy secttor faces a number of challenge es: growing dem mand, inadequate power supplyy capacity, a low w
connectivity rate, a weak
w nd lack of investtments from thee private sector. The
transmissiion and distributtion network, an
counttrys high depenndence on hydroopower also exp poses the energgy sector to eme erging risks, succh as extreme
weathher events.

Receent developments to boost electricity generatioon include the co ommissioning of: 1) the Olkariaa IV power plantt, the
world
ds largest single
e-turbine geothe
ermal power pla ant, which will add 140 MW to the grid; 2) the laargest wind ene
ergy
project in the region to deliver 15% of supply; and 3
3) 1 GW of world-class solar prrojects to be buiilt by SkyPowerr over
the next five years.

In its long-term deveelopment strateg


gy Vision 2030, energy was identified as one of the critical fooundations and
enablers of the socioo-economic trannsformation envvisioned for the country.
c To this effect a numbeer of policies and
d
regulations have bee en developed: the 2015 Energyy Bill to consolid date all laws relaating to energy, the National Ennergy
and P Petroleum Policcy 2015 to suppoort the administtration of all the proposed laws and the Petroleeum Exploration n,
Deve elopment and Prroduction Local Content Regula ations 2014 Actt for local conten nt provisions to name a few.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 19.4 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 3,08
83 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.12 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 2,994)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 19 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 61 | 5

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.11 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 15.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.10 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 2.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
KOREA
A (REPU
UBLIC)

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
3
43 46 44 CAC
balance scoore
44 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 72
2 76 72 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 30
0 38 35 A
Environmmental
7
87 89 88 C
sustainability
CAC
C Contextual
8
28 29 28
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

In this years Index, Korea (Rep.) raanks 44th. Energ gy equity is the countrys strong
gest trilemma d imension, while e it
receivves a letter grad
de of C in both energy
e securityy and environme ental sustainability, for a balancce score of CAC
C.

gy security remains a major challenge with a vvery low stability


Energ y of resource su
upplies and an eenergy import
dependency of arounnd 97%.

Receent policy measu ures to enhance e energy securitty include: expaanding cooperation with resourcce-rich countriess;
strengthening the coompetitiveness of o energy develooping companie es; and establishing the Overseeas Resource
Deveelopment Fund to t fund energy development
d pro
ojects in additio
on to giving gove
ernment loans aand guarantees.
Envirronmental sustaainability policy measures
m includ
de: the expansion of renewable e energy with taargets until 2030
0 and
the sttrong support off RD&D. Nuclea ar energy plays an essential role in the country
ys energy systeem in terms of energy
e
securrity, economics,, climate change e and load demmand.

Policyymakers need to using on: 1) the enhancement of


t continue focu o overseas energy developmennt; 2) the
development of rene ewable energy; and 3) the expa ansion of the nu
uclear power secctor, with considderation given to
o
safetyy issues, waste
e disposal, and increasing publi c acceptance by providing obje
ective informatioon and being
transparent.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 38.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 34,549 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 926)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 93 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.24 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 3.5

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.36 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 2.8

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 88 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
K
KUWAIT
T

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
9
59 56 53 CAD
balance scoore
53 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 81
1 74 75 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 19
9 24 21 A
Environmmental
6
96 98 99 D
sustainability
CAD
D Contextual
9
79 78 76
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Kuwa ait improves by 3 places, from rank


r 56 in 20155 to rank 53 in 2016. Energy equity is by far thee countrys stronngest
trilem
mma dimension, with Kuwait rec ceiving its lowesst letter grade fo
or its environme
ental sustainabillity performance
e,
resultting in a balance score of CAD.

In ligh
ht of the rapidlyy increasing powwer demand ove er the past deca ade, the governm ment unveiled aan extensive
development plan fo or the electric grid. Since 2007, 5 GW of capac city have been commissioned,
c tthrough combined-
cyclee gas-fired plants and several smaller expansio ons to oil-fired fa
acilities. By 2020 the installed ccapacity is planned to
increase to 25 GW, with w a reserve margin
m of more tthan 10%. By in ncreasing the shhare of natural ggas in its primarry
energ gy consumption n from 34% in 20009 to 42% in 2 2012, the countrry has moreoverr been looking fo for solutions to meet
m
its ele
ectricity demand d at peak times.

Altho
ough most of thiss planned capacity will be fuelleed by natural ga
as or oil, 5% of the electricity iss planned to com
me
from renewables by 2020 and to inc crease to 15% b by 2030, mainly deploying solarr and wind technnology. Howeve er, the
regulated oil sector has
h delayed furtther exploration n and productionn. Project Kuwait attempts to inncentivise foreign
invesstment to bring production
p capa
acity to 4 millionn barrels per day
y by 2020, as well as to diversiffy its oil-heavy
economy through na atural gas produ
uction.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 64.3 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 71,312 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.05 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 2,344)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 94 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 13.3

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.36 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.5

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 15,510 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
LATVIA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
6
26 24 25 ABB
balance scoore
25 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 16
6 15 18 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 43
3 41 38 B
Environmmental
3
53 49 56 B
sustainability
ABB
B Contextual
4
24 23 26
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

In this years Index, Latvia drops 1 place


p to rank 255. The countryss trilemma performance is overaall balanced, with
energgy security being its strongest dimension.
d Thiss results in a ballance score of ABB.
A

In 2012 the Latvian government


g agrreed on the Latvvian Energy Lon
ng Term Strateg gy 2030 Comppetitive Energy for
Socieety. Since then, the country has
s made significaant progress on this plan. Interc
connection in thhe area has
increased, especiallyy due to connecctions between S Sweden and Litthuania as well as Poland and LLithuania, whichh has
o a decrease in energy prices.
led to

A pla
anned connectio on from Latvia too Estonia, to be completed by 2020,
2 is further expected to impprove the security
and eequity dimensions of the trilemm ma. A diversificaation of gas imp
ports, mainly due to a new LNG G terminal in
Lithuania, is likely to
o further add to this.
t The country
ry has also made progress in th he renewables ssector, with the
ongooing renovation of o its hydroelecttric power plantss, as well as building capacity in wind energy.

The m w its renewable energy sector, as well as desiggning an effective


main challenge for Latvia will be to further grow
feed--in tariff scheme
e to support this growth.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 23.4 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 24,2
286 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.11 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 2,539)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 78

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.17 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 8.2

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.19 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 0.3

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
L EBANO
ON

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
4
84 86 86 DBB
balance scoore
86 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 10
08 112 113 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 75
5 76 74 B
Environmmental
8
58 58 61 B
sustainability
DBB
B Contextual
3
93 99 95
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Lebanon maintains its place in this years


y ranking, at rank 86. The country perform
ms well in the ennergy equity and
envirronmental susta
ainability dimens
sions, but lags b
behind regardingg energy securitty, for a balancee score of DBB..

In 2010, the governm ment approved a strategy for th


he rehabilitation of the power seector, including the development of
energgy efficiency and renewable en
nergy to addresss the countrys energy
e security concerns.

The n
national target iss for 12% of tota
al electricity pro
oduction to come from renewab ble energy by 20020. A recent move
m
towarrds developing larger solar pow wer plants, such h as the Beirut River
R Solar Snak
ke project, is a ppromising sign of
o the
counttrys progress on
o its renewable es targets.

With regards to enerrgy efficiency targets, progress is slowing down. The National Energy Efficienncy Action Plan,
adopted in 2011, exppired in 2015 annd no successo r plan has beenn formulated to ensure
e continuinng energy
ency gains.
efficie

A keyy challenge to successful


s imple
ementation will b
be to update thee legislative fram
mework that govverns the powerr
secto
or. Policymakerss should focus on
o creating an e enabling legislattive framework for
f the developmment of renewable
energ
gy and energy efficiency,
e which
h has the potenttial to improve both
b the trilemm
mas environmenntal sustainabilitty and
securrity dimensions..

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 24.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 13,938 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.06 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,091)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 9.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.33 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.7

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
LI THUAN IA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
9
29 28 28 BAB
balance scoore
28 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 40
0 25 46 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 36
6 34 34 A
Environmmental
2
72 67 40 B
sustainability
BAB
B Contextual
4
34 32 34
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Lithuania ranks the same


s as last year, at 28. Energgy equity is the countrys
c strong
gest trilemma di mension and it
receivves a letter grad
de of B in both energy
e security and environme ental sustainability, for a balancce score of BAB.

Lithuania remains am mong the few European countrries where electricity consumption grows steaddily every year anda
this trrend will continuue in the next 10
0 years accordi ng to Litgrid. One
O of the countrys energy chaallenges is to red
duce
its en
nergy dependen nce on a single supplier
s to secu ced energy. Its kkey actions are to
ure reliable and reasonably pric
develop a regional electricity
e interco
onnection and to
o construct an LNG
L terminal an
nd LNG Hub.

In ligh
ht of historic dissruption of gas supply
s from Russsia to the isolatted energy counntries, not only LLithuania but also
Latviaa and Estonia, thet next importa ant policy challe
enge will be to strengthen
s regional energy integgration.

Lithuania has alread dy opened up po


ower links with PPoland and Swe eden in Decemb ber 2015. The eestablishment off an
LNG terminal in Deccember 2014 is another effort to o enhance its independence fro om a monopoly exporter. The
counttry saw a drop ofo 63% in the sh
hare of total gass imports that ca
ame from Russia in the first quaarter of 2016, which
w
indica
ates that the countrys energy security
s performmance is likely to
o increase given
n the improvemeent of its energy y
import ratio, all else being equal.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 30.5 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 27,7
730 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 6,272)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) N.A.. | N.A.

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.18 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 7.5

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.20 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 1.6

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 1 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
LUX
XEMBOU
URG

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
0
60 57 55 DAD
balance scoore
55 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 118 120 122 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 1 1 1 A
Environmmental
111 108 103 D
sustainability
DAD
D Contextual
6 3 5
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Luxembourg places 55th in this yea ars Index. Whilee it achieves the
e best score globally regarding energy equity, the
t
limita
ations of its geoggraphical size have
h negative co
onsequences fo or its scores in energy
e security aand environmen
ntal
sustaainability, resulting in a balance
e score of DAD.

A ma ajor challenge th
hat Luxembourg g faces is its dep
pendence on en nergy imports (9 96.8% in 2010). Due to the countrys
limite
ed resource end dowment, there is little potentiall for Luxembourrg to develop doomestic energy ssources. Instea
ad, the
counttry needs to foccus on promoting regional intercconnection, dive ersifying its energy sources andd suppliers and
improoving its energyy efficiency and intensity to prom
mote its energy security.

The w wider deployme ent of renewable


es is a major cha allenge for Luxe
embourg, with reenewables accoounting for 2.9% % of
the energy mix in 20 010. However, thhe 2020 target iis at 11% and despite its suppoort mechanismss, which include feed-
in tarriffs, investment incentives and tax deductions , the country is unlikely to meett the target giveen current progress.

Energgy and carbon intensity in Luxe embourgs econ nomy is the lowe est among EU-15 countries. Hoowever, for the
indusstry and transpoortation sectors energy intensityy is the highest among all EU-15 countries withh low diesel pric
ce one
of the
e contributing fa
actors.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 11.9 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 101,926 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 3,876)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.23 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 1.9

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.23 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 2.3

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
M ALAYS IA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
1
41 38 35 BBC
balance scoore
35 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 64
4 55 37 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 37
7 40 41 B
Environmmental
9
69 75 83 C
sustainability
BBC
C Contextual
5
35 33 33
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Malayysia improves by
b 3 places, to rank 35. Its trilem
mma performan nce is overall balanced, scoringg slightly lower in
n the
envirronmental susta
ainability dimens
sion, for an overrall letter grade of BBC.

Acco
ording to the elevventh Malaysia Plan (2016202 20), rural electrrification and ren
newable energyy development willw be
key a
aims for the Malaysian energy sector.
s The sha re of household ds with access to o electricity hass increased to
appro
oximately 98% in i 2015. In ordeer to complete th he electrification ountry by 2020, construction off new
n of the entire co
generation plants with 7.6 GW of total capacity and d a number of grid interconnecttion projects willl be implemente ed.
New power plants will
w contribute to not only the imp provement of en nergy equity butt also enhance eenergy security y and
susta
ainability through
h replacing olde
er, inefficient pla
ants.

The ccountry is also seeking


s to impro
ove its generatio on mix, which will
w reduce its hig gh dependency on oil and gas. The
potenntial of several alternative
a sourc
ces is being exa amined by the government;
g in particular
p biomaass, biogas,
geothhermal and wind d are expected to be at the hea art of government policy. The taarget share of reenewable sourc ces in
total generation capa acity is 7.8% in Peninsular Mal aysia and Saba ah by 2020. Und der this aim, thee first geotherma
al
plant is currently undder constructionn and will start ooperation in 2018. In addition, th
he country will ccomplete its nattional
wind mapping by 2016 to explore its s feasibility as a reliable source
e of energy.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 40.0 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 26,8
891 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,411)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 99 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 4.2

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.36 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 1,395 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
M
MEXICO
O

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
2
52 59 52 BBB
balance scoore
52 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 66
6 62 59 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 64
4 72 71 B
Environmmental
1
51 57 55 B
sustainability
BBB
B Contextual
1
51 56 55
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Mexicco improves by 7 places in this


s years Index, frrom rank 59 in 2015
2 to rank 52 in 2016. The coountry performs
s well
acrosss the board, receiving a balanc
ce score of BBB B.

The MMexican energyy sector is facing


g a dual challen nge: a) the trans
sition from a monopolistic structture to a compeetitive
markket scheme, follo
owing the marke et liberalisation in 2013; and b) the transition frrom a high-carbbon to a low-carbon
economy.

Mexicco is the second


d country, after the UK, which h
has enacted a laaw that frames the actions to bbe taken with reg gards
to clim
mate change (2
2012 General La aw on Climate C
Change, LGCC)), both from an emission
e mitigattion point of view as
well aas measures of adaptation. Meexicos Intended
d Nationally Deteermined Contrib
butions for COP P21 include a 25 5%
reducction in GHG emmissions by 20330 (compared too a business-as--usual projection
n), with 35% of electricity generation
to come from clean energies
e by 202 24 and an aspira
ational goal of a 50% reduction
n in GHG emissiions by 2050.

The ggreatest challen


nges policymake ers need to focu he targets are: 1) the continuatioon of a renewab
us on to meet th ble
energgy programme and
a the re-initiation of a nucleaar programme; 2)2 continued increase of producction of both oil and
naturral gas on and offshore
o as well as the developmment of shale gas
g resources; anda 3) improvedd energy efficien ncy
and eenergy conservaation including cogeneration
c in order to reduce
e Mexicos energy intensity.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 34.4 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 17,2
277 (II)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 6,511)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 99 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 61

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 14.8

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.27 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 1.7

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 2,638 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
MO
ONGOL
LIA

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
111 111 1114 DCD
balance scoore
114 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 116 115 114 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 96
6 95 95 C
Environmmental
22
12 123 124 D
sustainability
DCD
D Contextual
4
64 69 65
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Monggolia drops 3 pla


aces to rank 114
4. The country rreceives low scores across the board, scoring a letter grade of
o D in
both energy securityy and environmeental sustainabillity. This results
s in a balance sc
core of DCD.

An im
mportant challen nge for the Mong golian energy s ector is to deve
elop a national in
ntegrated energgy system. Curre
ently
four sseparate electriccity grids are in operation. Therrefore, the coun
ntry is planning to
t connect these
se grids and exp
pand
the distribution syste
em under the Prrogramme on M Mongolian Integrrated Power Sys stem (200720440).

Mode ernisation and in


ncreasing electrric production ca
apacity are priorities for the cou
untry. Accordingg to the Asian
Deveelopment Bank, the share of eleectricity which iss being imported d from Russia too manage peakk demand has be een
increasing over the past
p years. Duee to ageing powe er plants it is es
ssential to reduc
ce losses by impproving existing
plants and operationnal management and to develop p new plants to secure a reliable energy supplly.

Lastlyy, the governmeent is aiming to increase the sh


hare of renewabbles in the nation
nal energy mix tto 20% by 20200. The
government is streng gthening its inte
ernational coope
eration and workking with interna
ational companiies to develop the
counttrys renewables potential, whic ch has been esttimated by the Mongolian
M Natio
onal Renewablee Energy centre to be
approoximately 2,6000 GW.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 37.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 12,189 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.14 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 6,621)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 86 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 43 | 5

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 12.8

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.74 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.5

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 1,793 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
M OROCC
CO

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
8
78 78 80 DBC
balance scoore
80 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 113 118 111 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 57
7 57 59 B
Environmmental
7
67 76 75 C
sustainability
DBC
C Contextual
2
82 81 81
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Moro occo ranks 80th in this years In


ndex. The counttrys strongest trrilemma dimens
sion is energy eqquity, but it rece
eives a
letterr grade of D regarding energy security,
s for a ba
alance score of DBC.

Moroocco has taken a strong initiativ newable energy


ve to develop ren y since 2008 in order to deal wiith high levels of
o
energgy imports and to
t reduce its dependency on fo ossil fuels. The country
c set a target to establishh 6 GW of renewwable
energgy from solar, wind
w and hydropower, which willl lead to 42% off installed powe er capacity in 20020 compared too 13%
in 2015.

Acco
ording to the Clim
mate Investmen nt Funds, the firsst phase of the NOOR project, a group of 5 soolar plans which was
opened in 2016, can e to improve en ergy security an
n play a vital role nd sustainability
y by producing eenough energy to
poweer over one million homes by 20 018 and reducin ng emissions by y an estimated 760,000
7 tons of CO2 per year. At
A the
samee time, the coun
ntry is focusing on
o promoting en nergy efficiency. The goal for energy efficiencyy is to achieve a 20%
impro
ovement by 203 30.

Rene
ewable energy and
a energy effic ciency will keep its position as the
t heart of the national energyy strategy in the
n is projected to be invested in ssolar and wind over the next fiv
counttry as US$11bn ve years in Moroocco.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 29.3 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 7,821 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,047)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 99 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 87

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.12 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 13.7

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.25 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 5.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 2 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
N
NAMIBIA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
02
10 100 96 DDB
balance scoore
965 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 114 113 103 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 10
00 100 100 D
Environmmental
4
54 52 45 B
sustainability
DDB
B Contextual
1
61 57 59
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Namiibia improves byy 4 places in thiis years index, from rank 100 in 2015 to rank 969 in 2016. Thee countrys stron
ngest
trilem
mma dimension is environmenta al sustainability while both enerrgy security and
d energy equity receive a letter grade
of D. this results in a balance score of DDB.

Namiibia struggles to o meet local dem mand. In additio


on to its own installed capacity the
t country reliees on imports fro om
neighhbouring countriies such as Zim mbabwe, Zambia a, Mozambique and South Afric ca. However, thee country plans to
tacklee these difficulties, particularly through the exp
pansion of its re
enewable energy y sector. To thiss effect the coun
ntry
has rrecently develop ped a framework to include Inde ependent Powe er Producers (IPPPs) in the energrgy supply, and the
national regulator, thhe Electricity Co ontrol Board (EC
CB), has already y issued 14 IPP licences. Thesese developments s have
the potential to impro ove the countrys energy trilemmma performanc ce across all dim
mensions.

Formmulating an integ grated long-term


m energy strateggy remains a key challenge for the country. Thee National Integ
grated
Reso ource Plan and the t Renewable Energy Policy, as well as the transformation of o the ECB into tthe Namibia Energy
Regu ulatory Authorityy (NERA) with an expanded reg gulatory remit arre positive recent developmentts. However, the
ese
policiies are still form
med under the aeegis of the 1998
8 White Paper ono Energy Policy y, which needs to be updated to
t
arrive
e at a strong and coherent energy policy and th hus to improve the countrys raanking.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 31.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 10,414 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 2,522)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 44 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 83
8 | 14

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.11 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 12.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.18 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.5

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 53 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
NEPAL

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
23
12 123 1123 DDC
balance scoore
123 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 12
25 125 125 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 112 111 111 D
Environmmental
5
85 85 86 C
sustainability
DDC
C Contextual
114 116 115
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Nepaal ranks 123rd in


n this years Index, maintaining g its 2015 rank. The
T countrys energy security aand energy equity
score
es are particularrly low, resulting etter grade of DDC.
g in an overall le

The kkey energy challlenges for Nepa al are to improvve access to moodern energy in rural communitiies and to increase
electrricity supply to provide
p reliable energy servicess to the populattion.

Nepaal has one of the


e lowest levels of
o electrification
n among South Asian
A countries and the rural poopulation is highly
dependent on traditioonal biofuel for heating and coo oking. At the sa
ame time, energy demand is exxpected to increa ase at
over 8% per year un ntil 2027 accordiing to the Nepall Electricity Auth
hority (NEA).

To prrovide reliable and


a sustainable energy, a Rura al Energy Devellopment Programme was launcched in 1996
supported by the Un nited Nations Deevelopment Prog gramme (UNDP P). The National Rural and Rennewable Energy y
Progrramme (20122 2017) is building Energy Development Programm
g on the Rural E me by building ssmall hydropowe
er and
solarr heating system
ms. The program mme is expected d to bring beneffits of economic, environmentall and social
development to the country.
c

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 15.6 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 2,45
58 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.18 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 9,432)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 76 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 67
6 | 10

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 24.4

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.10 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 2.7

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
NET
THERLA NDS

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
7 8 4 AAB
balance scoore
4 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 15
5 20 9 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 3 4 3 A
Environmmental
2
42 42 42 B
sustainability
AAB
B Contextual
8 5 6
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

In this years Index, the Netherlands s improve by 4 p places to rank 4.


4 The country performs
p stronglly across the bo
oard,
makin ng it into the top
p 10 not just ove
erall, but also w
with regard to energy security an ty. This results in a
nd energy equity
balannce score of AA AB.

The N Netherlands is well-positioned


w in the Index butt still faces a number of challenges. These incllude: the public
debate around installation of additio
onal onshore win nd capacity; higgh expectations of biomass andd green gas in
the faace of challenging markets; enssuring solar surrges and geothe ermal meet expeectations given tthe low starting
base; and a feed-in tariff
t scheme that is not sufficie
ent to reach targgets. Furthermore, energy efficiiency progress is
fairly slow.

Key eenergy policy de


evelopments are e: the green deaals; energy innoovation top sector approach deesigned to streng
gthen
markket steering, marrket involvemen
nt and market reesources for ene ergy; and the SD
DE+ (stimulatio n of
susta
ainable/renewab ble energy) feed
d-in scheme tha d (over 1.5bn pper annum).
at is fully operational and funded

sation of power generation. Pollicymakers have


A keyy trend is the strrong decentralis e to create the fframework to
stimu
ulate or facilitate
e this developmeent including the
e upgrade of the existing netwoork such as smaart grids. Finally
y, the
Netheerlands is expeccted to strengthhen its position a
as a gas country
y, with an increa
ased focus on thhe role of gas as
a a
balan
ncing fuel in a syystem that is mooving towards ssustainability.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 21.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 48,459 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.07 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 924)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.23 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 3.9

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.25 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 0.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 715 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
NEW
W ZEALA
AND

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
1
11 7 9 AAB
balance scoore
9 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 19
9 16 13 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 29
9 18 20 A
Environmmental
8
38 36 36 B
sustainability
AAB
B Contextual
4 4 8
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

New Zealand placess 9th in this yearrs Index. In thiss years index, New
N Zealand ranks 9th. With itss stable market--
based framework an nd strong economic growth the country balance es the trade-offs
s between energrgy security, ene
ergy
equityy and environm
mental sustainab
bility well, resultiing in a balancee score of AAB.

The NNew Zealand En nergy Strategy (NZES) and En nergy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy setts out the
governments overarrching energy policy frameworkk. Its four priorities (diverse resource developm
ment, environme
ental
onsibility, efficie
respo ent use of energy, and secure a
and affordable energy)
e help sha
ape New Zealannds trilemma
perfo
ormance.

Retire
ements of therm
mal generation hash seen New Z Zealands alread
dy high proportioon of renewablee electricity increase
to 81% in 2015. Reccent policy initiattives have focusssed on leverag
ging this advantage, with goverrnment consultin ng on
energgy sector wide targets
t for increasing the propo ortion of renewa
able energy in th
he economy andd implementing
ets and support measures for electric and low e
targe emissions vehiccles to 2021.

Trendds to watch are: 1) the speed of o electric vehicl e uptake in light of governmentt and business aaction; 2) the
impliccations of the en
nergy-sector wide targets on in nvestment and energy
e intensity trends; 3) grow
wing demand-sid
de
involvvement in the electricity markett, and the impliccations of the more rapid adoption of new techhnologies on dem mand,
future
e competition, network
n regulatio
on, and prices.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 24.6 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 36,982 (I)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.10 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,024)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 100 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 95
9 | 95

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.13 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 6.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.27 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 0.4

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 440 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
NIGER

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
24
12 124 1124 DDD
balance scoore
124 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 119 117 119 D

SCORE Energy equity


e 12
24 125 125 D
Environmmental
20
12 120 120 D
sustainability
DDD
D Contextual
111 112 114
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Nigerr places second d to last in this years


y Index, at rrank 124, and re
eceives the lowest score globaally regarding en
nergy
equityy. This results in an overall balance score of D DDD.

Desp ources, energy iss still a challeng


pite the richnesss of Nigers reso ge for the authorities. This is maainly a result off low
economic productivitty and investme ent, and also the
e limited access s that the majority of the country
ry has to energy y.

Nigerr has significantt natural energyy resources such h as biomass, uranium,


u mineral coal, natural ggas, hydro and solar.
s
It is e
estimated that 90%
9 of Nigers population
p accessses energy through the use off biomass, and 770% of energy supply
s
come es from biomasss. The second la argest contributtor is oil at 17%.

Natioonal law and the e liberalisation of arket result in Niger being an atttractive investm
o the energy ma ment opportunity
y, but
infrasstructure for delivering energy remains
r a key b
barrier.

With regards to the renewable


r energy sector, there
e is still lack of sufficient
s legislattion to attract inncoming investm
ment,
speciifically competitiveness, transparency and seccurity of the marrket.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 19.5 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 95
54 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.17 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers M
Medium (HHI = 2,031)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 9 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 6|5

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 15.0

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.13 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) N.A.

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 20 Mtoe
M Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
N
NIGERIA
A

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
8
98 101 1104 ADD
balance scoore
104 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 5 5 8 A

SCORE Energy equity


e 10
06 107 108 D
Environmmental
7
97 102 101 D
sustainability
ADD
D Contextual
117 117 117
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Nigerria drops 3 places in this years


s Index, to rank 104. While the country performms strongly in thee energy security
dimension, placing 8th
8 globally, it re grade of D in the other two dim
eceives a letter g mensions, for a bbalance score of
o
ADD.

The kkey priority challenge for Nigeriia is to diversifyy energy sources


s. According to the Ministry of PPower, Works and
a
t country depends on gas-fire
Houssing of Nigeria, the ed power plants
s for over 80% of
o its electricity w
while hydropow
wer
generates about 14% %.

Howe ever, the gas suupply is frequently disrupted byy militants. This situation drives the country to ffind other energ
gy
sourcces, i.e. renewable energy. In July
J 2016, the fe
ederal governme ent signed the power
p purchasee agreement witth 12
firms for the construcction of solar po
ower plants. Theese are expecte ed to give the coountry 975 MW of electricity capacity
and bbring the benefitts of enhancement of energy se ecurity.

The ssecond challeng ge refers to the energy equity aaspect of the Trilemma. Nigeria has one of the lowest shares of o
electrrification. Only 48%
4 of the popuulation currentlyy has access to electricity. Therrefore, developi ng a new
transmission and disstribution network and improvin ng existing lines will come into the
t priority list oof the countrys
energgy agenda.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 24.2 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 5,99
92 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.08 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,190)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 48 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 54
5 | 10

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 15.8

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.04 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 2.0

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 9,384
4 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
PA
AKISTA
AN

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
04
10 102 1102 CDC
balance scoore
102 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 74
4 69 76 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 99
9 99 99 D
Environmmental
4
94 94 93 C
sustainability
CDC
C Contextual
20
12 119 120
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Pakisstan ranks 102n


nd in this years Index. The cou ntry receives low scores across the board, ressulting in a balance
score
e of CDC.

Pakisstans energy se ector is faced with a triple challe


enge posed by a large supply
demand gap, aan ageing and
inefficcient power tran
nsmission systeem, and expensiive thermal pow T remedy this situation, the
wer generation. To
government in 2013 launched the National
N Power P Plan (NPP). A key
k aspect of the e NPP is to stepp up efforts to exploit
the countrys potential for renewable e energy genera ation.

In addition, projects are being developed under the e auspices of the


e ChinaPakista an Economic Coorridor (CPEC) to
achie
eve a higher sha are of renewablees. One of the p
projects, the Qu
uaid-e-Azam Solar Park, startedd operating in 2015
and pplans exist to exxpand its capacity to 1,000 MWW. This would ma ake it the worlds largest solar ppower plant. Other
projects include seve eral wind farms and hydroelecttric power plantss such as the Suki Kinari projecct currently under
consttruction in the North
N East of the
e country.

Pakisstan will also ha


ave to make sure
e that the counttrys transmissio
on infrastructure
e can keep up w
with this rapid
development of rene ewable energy capacity
c to ensu
ure the reliable supply
s of energyy.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 20.9 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 5,04
42 (IV)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 2,647)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 91 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 71
7 | 11

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 16.6

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.19 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.1

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 1,990 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
PA
ARAGUA
AY

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
1
91 89 89 CCB
balance scoore
89 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 99
9 97 96 C

SCORE Energy equity


e 87
7 86 86 C
Environmmental
7
77 59 57 B
sustainability
CCB
B Contextual
02
10 100 96
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Parag
guay maintains its place at rank 89. The counttrys strongest trilemma dimens sion is environm
mental sustainab bility,
wheree it receives a le
etter grade of B,
B but it scores lo
ower regarding energy security
y and energy eqquity, for a balan
nce
score
e of CCB.

Nearly 99% of Parag guay's energy demand is met bby hydropower. Therefore, there
e is little to no inncentive for Parraguay
to develop a policy frramework prom
moting the use off renewables.

The oonly clean energ


gy policy incentive in Paraguayy is a biofuel ma andate for gasoline and diesel. The mandate statess
that d
diesel sold commmercially in the country must co ontain 5% biodiesel and gasoline must containn between 18% and
24% ethanol. It is ho
oped that the poolicy will introducce more diversiffication of supplly and less reliaance on hydropo
ower
e future.
in the

The aabundant supplyy of energy resu


ults in low energ
gy costs for the retail and comm
mercial consumeer, and is a goo
od
basiss for social and economic
e development in the ffuture.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 28.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 9,184 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.09 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 2,554)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 97 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 68
6 | 20

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) N.A. Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 27.1

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.10 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 3.6

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 0 Mto
oe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nuclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hy
ydro
Other renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
PERU

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
3
63 63 64 BCB
balance scoore
64 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 65
5 61 54 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 83
3 85 84 C
Environmmental
2
32 32 38 B
sustainability
BCB
B Contextual
7
57 62 60
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

Peru drops 1 place to


t rank 64 in this
s years Index. T
The country perrforms well rega
arding environm
mental sustainab
bility,
with e
energy equity being its weakesst trilemma dimeension, for a balance score of BCB.
B

Perus National Enerrgy Policy 20102040 was app proved at the en


nd of 2010 with the
t goal to encoourage and prottect
privatte investment in
n the sector; andd to minimise th
he social and en
nvironmental impacts by promooting the develop pment
of energy markets, encouraging
e efficiency and the development off renewable eneergies at the loccal, regional, and
d
national level.

Sche emes to support these goals are e already in placce and include: a law, passed in April 2012, too promote energ gy
securrity in hydrocarb
bons; a scheme e to promote thee modernisation of oil refineries; a universal ennergy access pla an for
the 20132022 perio od, implemented d in May 2013, w with clearly defiined targets for different sub-coomponents; and d
auctioons and calls fo
or tenders to seccure the implemmentation of hydro projects. Add ditional fiscal inccentives are in place
p
for sm
mall-scale hydroo, solar, wind, biomass, and ge eothermal.

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 36.8 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 12,402 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.05 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers Low (HHI = 3,055)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 85 Access to clean cooking in urb
ban | rural areass (%) 92
9 | 25

Household
d electricity price
es (US$/kWh) 0.16 Rate of transm
mission and distribution losses (%
%) 11.2

CO2 intenssity (kCO2 per US$)


U 0.15 GHG emission growth rate 200
002012 (%) 4.9

ENERGY
Y PROFILE
Co
oal
Fossil fuell reserves: 536 Mtoe Oil
Naatural gas
Total primary energy supp
ply composition Co
onventional thermal
Nu
uclear
Diversity o
of electricity gen
neration Hyydro
Otther renewables
0% 20% 40% 60%
% 80% 100%
PH ILIPPIN
NES

TRILEMM
MA INDEX RA
ANKINGS AND BALANCE SCORE

RANK 201
14 2015 22016 Trend Score

Overall rank
k and
7
67 62 61 BCA
balance scoore
61 Energy perfo
ormance

Energy security
s 60
0 56 52 B

SCORE Energy equity


e 91
1 90 92 C
Environmmental
2 1 1 A
sustainability
BCA
A Contextual
5
75 71 69
performancee

TRENDS
S AND OUTLO
OOK

The P
Philippines drop
ps 1 place to ran
nk 61. The coun
ntry performs ex
xcellently in the environmental ssustainability
dimension, placing 1st
1 worldwide, butb lags behind rregarding energ
gy equity, resulting in a balancee score of BCA.

The P Philippines suffe


ers from a shorttage of power suupply, often res
sulting in rotating
g brownouts lassting an average e of
23 hhours daily. Thoough the power shortage is a syystemic problem m to be resolved d through the coollaboration of all
a
stakeeholders, the De epartment of En
nergy has outline ed some short-tterm solutions to o address the bbrownouts: 1) the
Interrruptible Load Prrogramme; 2) a boost in supplyy through the co ommissioning an nd rehabilitationn of plants; 3) an
n
increase in capacity from renewable es, primarily sol ar, wind and bio
omass.

Theree is a need for investments in power


p on. Recently an increased feed--in tariff allocatioon for solar pow
generatio wer
projects has been introduced, which h is expected too increase the innvestments in so olar energy projeects in the long-run.
Most projects that arre currently in th
he pipeline are ccoal-fired as coaal project develoopers are currenntly favoured by ya
prem
mium given to the e peso-per-kilowwatt hour cost oof electricity. Add
ditionally, natura
al gas projects vvia LNG
regassification opporttunities are currently discussedd such as LNG terminals to import LNG from thhe Middle
East//Europe/Australia with an anticiipated capacity of 24 million to ons of gas per year.
y

KEY MET
TRICS

Industrial ssector (% of GD
DP) 31.4 GDP per capita
a, PPP US$ (GD
DP Group) 7,359 (III)

Energy inttensity (koe per US$) 0.05 Diversity of inte


ernational energ
gy suppliers High (HHI = 1,253)

Population
n with access to
o electricity (%) 83 Access to clean cooking in u