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StepstoaBasicCompanyFinancialAnalysis
FinancialRatioAnalysis(Abridged)
FinancialStatementsAnalysis
StepstoaBasicCompanyFinancialAnalysis
ByProfessorHarveyB.Lermack
PhiladelphiaUniversity
Philadelphia,PA
RevisedMay23,2003
2003HarveyB.Lermack
Thesearebasicstepsyoumayusewhenevaluatingcompanycasesinmygraduateand
undergraduatebusinessstrategyandbusinesspolicycourses.
Beforeyoustart,youmustunderstandacoupleofthings.
Thisisnotmeanttobeanexhaustivelistthereareotherstepsthatcanbefollowedtoget
deeperintothemeaningofthenumbers.
Youcannotanalyzethenumbersinavacuum.Thenumbersonlyprovideindicatorstotrigger
furtherquestionsinyourmind.
Inordertodoathoroughjob,youmustunderstandsomethingaboutthecompanys
businessandstrategies,anditsindustry.Financialindicatorsvaryfromindustryto
industrytheratioscanonlybeinterpretedwhencomparedandcontrastedwithother
companiesinthatindustry.Forexample,financialindicatorsare(andshouldbe)
differentamongfinancialinstitutions,manufacturingcompanies,companiesthatprovide
services,andtechnologyandcomputerinformationandservicescompanies.
Financialanalysisissomethingofanart.Experiencedmanagers,investorsandanalysts
developadatabankofinformationovertime,andafterdoingmanysuchanalyses,thatthey
bringtobeareverytimetheyreviewacompany.
Step1.Acquirethecompanysfinancialstatementsforseveralyears.Thesemaybefoundin
yourassignedcasestudyinarecentannualreportinthecompanys10KfilingontheSECs
EDGARdatabaseorfromothersourcesfoundatmyLINKSwebsite.Asaminimum,getthe
followingstatements,foratleast3to5years.
Balancesheets
Incomestatements
Shareholdersequitystatements
Cashflowstatements
Step2.Quicklyscanallofthestatementstolookforlargemovementsinspecificitemsfromone
yeartothenext.Forexample,didrevenueshaveabigjump,orabigfall,fromoneparticular
yeartothenext?Didtotalorfixedassetsgroworfall?Ifyoufindanythingthatlooksvery
suspicious,researchtheinformationyouhaveaboutthecompanytofindoutwhy.Forexample,
didthecompanypurchaseanewdivision,orselloffpartofitsoperations,thatyear?
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Step3.Reviewthenotesaccompanyingthefinancialstatementsforadditionalinformationthat
maybesignificanttoyouranalysis.
Step4.Examinethebalancesheet.Lookforlargechangesintheoverallcomponentsofthe
company'sassets,liabilitiesorequity.Forexample,havefixedassetsgrownrapidlyinoneortwo
years,duetoacquisitionsornewfacilities?Hastheproportionofdebtgrownrapidly,toreflecta
newfinancingstrategy?Ifyoufindanythingthatlooksverysuspicious,researchtheinformation
youhaveaboutthecompanytofindoutwhy.
Step5.Examinetheincomestatement.Lookfortrendsovertime.Calculateandgraphthegrowthof
thefollowingentriesoverthepastseveralyears.
Revenues(sales)
Netincome(profit,earnings)
Aretherevenuesandprofitsgrowingovertime?Aretheymovinginasmoothandconsistent
fashion,orerraticallyupanddown?Investorsvaluepredictability,andprefermoreconsistent
movementstolargeswings.
Foreachofthekeyexpensecomponentsontheincomestatement,calculateitasapercentageof
salesforeachyear.Forexample,calculatethepercentofcostofgoodssoldoversales,general
andadministrativeexpensesoversales,andresearchanddevelopmentoversales.Lookfor
favorableorunfavorabletrends.Forexample,risingG&Aexpensesasapercentofsalescould
meanlavishspending.Also,determinewhetherthespendingtrendssupportthecompanys
strategies.Forexample,increasedemphasisonnewproductsandinnovationwillprobablybe
reflectedbyanincreasedproportionofspendingonresearchanddevelopment.
Lookfornonrecurringornonoperatingitems.Theseare"unusual"expensesnotdirectlyrelated
toongoingoperations.However,somecompanieshavesuchitemsonalmostanannualbasis.
Howdothesereflectontheearningsquality?
Ifyoufindanythingthatlooksverysuspicious,researchtheinformationyouhaveaboutthe
companytofindoutwhy.
Step6.Examinetheshareholder'sequitystatement.Hasthecompanyissuednewshares,or
boughtsomeback?Hastheretainedearningsaccountbeengrowingorshrinking?Why?Are
theresignalsaboutthecompany'slongtermstrategyhere?
Ifyoufindanythingthatlooksverysuspicious,researchtheinformationyouhaveaboutthe
companytofindoutwhy.
Step7.Examinethecashflowstatement,whichgivesinformationaboutthecashinflowsand
outflowsfromoperations,financing,andinvesting.
Whiletheincomestatementprovidesinformationaboutbothcashandnoncashitems,thecash
flowstatementattemptstoreconstructthatinformationtomakeitclearhowcashisobtainedand
usedbythebusiness,sincethatiswhatinvestorsandcreditorsreallycareabout.
Ifyoufindanythingthatlooksverysuspicious,researchtheinformationyouhaveaboutthe
companytofindoutwhy.
Step8.Calculatefinancialratiosineachofthefollowingcategories,foreachyear.Youmayusethe
formulasfoundinyourtextbook,orothermaterialsyouhavefromyourfinanceandaccountingcourses.
Asummaryofsomeusefulratiosappearsattheendofthisdocument.
Liquidityratios
Leverage(ordebt)ratios
Profitabilityratios
Efficiencyratios
Valueratios
Graphtheratiosovertime,tofindthetrendsintheratiosfromyeartoyear.Aretheygoingupor
down?Isthatfavorableorunfavorable?Thisshouldtriggerfurtherquestionsinyourmind,and
helpyoutolookfortheunderlyingreasons.
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Step9.Obtaindataforthecompanyskeycompetitors,anddataabouttheindustry.
Forcompetitorcompanies,youcangetthedataandcalculatetheratiosinthesamewayyoudid
forthecompanybeingstudied.Youcanalsogetcompanyandindustryratiosfromthe
Quicken.comEvaluator,SchwabStockEvaluator,orotherlocationsonmyLINKSwebsite.
Comparetheratiosforthecompetitorsandtheindustrytothecompanybeingstudied.Isthe
companyfavorableincomparison?Doyouhaveenoughinformationtodeterminewhyorwhy
not?Ifyoudont,youmayneedtodofurtherresearch.
Step10.Reviewthemarketdatayouhaveaboutthecompanysstockprice,andthepriceto
earnings(P/E)ratio.
TrytoresearchandunderstandthemovementsinthestockpriceandP/Eovertime.Determinein
yourownmindwhetherthestockmarketisreactingfavorablytothecompanysresultsandits
strategiesfordoingbusinessinthefuture.
Reviewtheevaluationsofstockmarketanalysts.Thesemaybefoundatanybrokeragesite,or
fromvariouslocationsonmyLINKSwebsite.
Step11.Reviewthedividendpayout.Graphthepayoutoverseveralyears.Determinewhether
thecompanysdividendpoliciesaresupportingtheirstrategies.Forexample,ifthecompanyis
attemptingtogrow,aretheyretainingandreinvestingtheirearningsratherthandistributingthem
toinvestorsthroughdividends?Basedonyourresearchintotheindustry,areyouconvincedthat
thecompanyhassufficientopportunitiesforprofitablereinvestmentandgrowth,orshouldtheybe
distributingmoretotheownersintheformofdividends?Viewedanotherway,canyoulearn
anythingabouttheirlongtermstrategiesfromthewaytheypaydividends?
Step12.Reviewallofthedatathatyouhavegenerated.Youwillprobablyfindthatthereisamixof
positiveandnegativeresults.Answerthefollowingquestion:
BasedoneverythingIknowaboutthiscompanyanditsstrategies,theindustryand
thecompetitors,andtheexternalfactorsthatwillinfluencethecompanyinthefuture,
doIthinkthiscompanyisworthinvestinginforthelongterm?
2003HarveyB.Lermack
FinancialRatioAnalysis(Abridged)
Adaptedfrom"FinancialStatementsAnalysis,"
CourtesyofProfessorPhilipRussel
PhiladelphiaUniversity
Philadelphia,PA
Apopularwaytoanalyzethefinancialstatementsisbycomputingratios.Aratioisarelationship
betweentwonumbers,e.g.ratioofA:B=1.5:1==>Ais1.5timesB.Aratiobyitselfmayhave
nomeaning.Hence,agivenratioiscomparedto:
Ratiosfrompreviousyearsforinternaltrends
Ratiosofotherfirmsinthesameindustryforexternaltrends.
Ratioanalysisisadiagnostictoolthathelpstoidentifyproblemareasandopportunitieswithina
company.,wewilldiscusshowtomeasureandinterpretsomekeyratios.
ThemostfrequentlyusedratiosbyFinancialAnalystsprovideinsightsintoafirm's
Liquidity
Degreeoffinancialleverageordebt
Profitability
Efficiency
Value
A.AnalyzingLiquidity
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Liquidassetsarethosethatcanbeconvertedintocashquickly.Theshorttermliquidityratios
showthefirmsabilitytomeetitsshorttermobligations.Thusahigherratio(#1and#2)would
indicateagreaterliquidityandlowerriskforshorttermlenders.TheRulesofThumbfor
acceptablevaluesare:CurrentRatio(2:1),QuickRatio(1:1).
Whilehighliquiditymeansthatthecompanywillnotdefaultonitsshorttermobligations,one
shouldkeepinmindthatbyretainingassetsascash,valuableinvestmentopportunitiesmaybe
lost.Obviously,cashbyitselfdoesnotgenerateanyreturn.Onlyifitisinvestedwillweget
futurereturn.
1.CurrentRatio=TotalCurrentAssets/TotalCurrentLiabilities
2.QuickRatio=(TotalCurrentAssetsInventories)/TotalCurrentLiabilities
Inthequickratio,wesubtractinventoriesfromtotalcurrentassets,sincetheyarethe
leastliquidamongthecurrentassets
B.AnalyzingDebt
Debtratiosshowtheextenttowhichafirmisrelyingondebttofinanceitsinvestmentsand
operations,andhowwellitcanmanagethedebtobligation,i.e.repaymentofprincipaland
periodicinterest.Ifthecompanyisunabletopayitsdebt,itwillbeforcedintobankruptcy.Onthe
positiveside,useofdebtisbeneficialasitprovidestaxbenefitstothefirm,andallowsitto
exploitbusinessopportunitiesandgrow.
Notethattotaldebtincludesshorttermdebt(bankadvances+thecurrentportionoflongterm
debt)andlongtermdebt(bonds,leases,notespayable).
1.LeverageRatios
1a.DebttoEquityRatio=TotalDebt/TotalEquity
Thisshowsthefirmsdegreeofleverage,oritsrelianceonexternaldebtforfinancing.
1b.DebttoAssetsRatio=TotalDebt/Totalassets
Someanalystsprefertousethisratio,whichalsoshowsthecompanysrelianceon
externalsourcesforfinancingitsassets.
Ingeneral,witheitheroftheaboveratios,thelowertheratio,themoreconservative
(andprobablysafer)thecompanyis.However,ifacompanyisnotusingdebt,itmay
beforegoinginvestmentandgrowthopportunities.Thisisaquestionthatcanbe
answeredonlybyfurthercompanyandindustryresearch.
Afrequentlycitedruleofthumbformanufacturingandothernonfinancialindustriesis
thatcompaniesnotfinancemorethan50%oftheircapitalthroughexternaldebt.
2.InterestCoverage(orTimesInterestEarned)Ratio=EarningsBeforeInterest
andTaxes/AnnualInterestExpense
Thisshowsthefirmsabilitytocoverfixedinterestcharges(onbothshorttermand
longtermdebt)withcurrentearnings.Themarginofsafetythatisacceptablevaries
withinandacrossindustries,andalsodependsontheearningshistoryofafirm
(especiallytheconsistencyofearningsfromperiodtoperiodandyeartoyear).
3.CashFlowCoverage=NetCashFlow/AnnualInterestExpense
Netcashflow=NetIncome+/noncashitems(e.g.equityincome+minority
interestinearningsofsubsidiary+deferredincometaxes+depreciation+depletion
+amortizationexpenses)
Sincedepreciationisusuallythelargestnoncashiteminmostcompanies,analysts
oftenapproximateNetcashflowasbeingequivalenttoNetIncome+Depreciation.
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Cashflowisacriticalvariableinassessingacompany.Ifacompanyisshowing
strongprofitsbuthaspoorcashflow,youshouldinvestigatefurtherbeforepassinga
favorableopiniononthecompany.nalystspreferratio#3toratio#2.
C.AnalyzingProfitability
Profitabilityisarelativeterm.Itishardtosaywhatpercentageofprofitsrepresentsaprofitable
firm,asprofitsdependonsuchfactorsasthepositionofthecompanyanditsproductsonthe
competitivelifecycle(forexampleprofitswillbelowerintheinitialyearswheninvestmentis
high),oncompetitiveconditionsintheindustry,andonborrowingcosts.
Fordecisionmaking,weareconcernedonlywiththepresentvalueofexpectedfutureprofits.
Pastorcurrentprofitsareimportantonlyastheyhelpustoidentifylikelyfutureprofits,by
identifyinghistoricalandforecastedtrendsofprofitsandsales.
Wewanttoknowwhetherprofitsaregenerallyontherisewhethersalesstableorrisinghowthe
profitscomparetotheindustryaveragewhetherthemarketshareofthecompanyisrising,
stableorfallingandotherthingsthatindicatethelikelyfutureprofitabilityofthefirm.
1.NetProfitMargin=Profitaftertaxes/Sales
2.ReturnonAssets(ROA)=Profitaftertaxes/TotalAssets
3.ReturnonEquity(ROE)=Profitaftertaxes/ShareholdersEquity(bookvalue)
4.EarningsperCommonshare(EPS)=(ProfitsaftertaxesPreferredDividend)/
(#ofcommonsharesoutstanding)
5.PayoutRatio=CashDividends/NetIncome
Note:Thetermsprofits,earningsandnetincomeareoftenusedinterchangeablyin
financialstatements.Besuretoreviewthestatementstounderstandtheir
components.
D.AnalyzingEfficiency
Theseratiosreflecthowwellthefirmsassetsarebeingmanaged.
Theinventoryratiosshowshowfasttheinventoryisbeingproducedandsold.
1.InventoryTurnover=CostofGoodsSold/AverageInventory
Thisratioshowshowquicklytheinventoryisbeingturnedover(orsold)togenerate
sales.Ahigherratioimpliesthefirmismoreefficientinmanaginginventoriesby
minimizingtheinvestmentininventories.Thusaratioof12wouldmeanthatthe
inventoryturnsover12times,ortheaverageinventoryissoldinamonth.
2.TotalAssetsTurnover=Sales/AverageTotalAssets
Thisratioshowshowmuchsalesthefirmisgeneratingforeverydollarofinvestment
inassets.Thehighertheratio,thebetterthefirmisperforming.
3.AccountsReceivableTurnover=AnnualCreditSales/AverageReceivables
4.AverageCollectionperiod=AverageAccountsReceivable/(TotalSales/365)
Ratios#3and#4showthefirmsefficiencyincollectingcashfromitscreditsales.
Whilealowratioisgood,itcouldalsomeanthatthefirmisbeingverystrictinits
creditpolicy,whichmaynotattractcustomers.
5.DaysinInventory=Daysinayear/Inventoryturnover
Ratio#5isreferredtoastheshelflifei.e.howquicklythemanufacturedproductis
soldofftheshelf.Thus#5and#1arerelated.
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E.ValueRatios
Valueratiosshowtheembeddedvalueinstocks,andareusedbyinvestorsasascreeningdevice
beforemakinginvestments.
Forexample,ahighP/Eratiomayberegardedbysomeasbeingasignofoverpricing.When
themarketsarebullish(optimistic)orifinvestorsentimentisoptimisticaboutaparticularstock,
theP/Eratiowilltendtobehigh.Forexample,inthelate1990sInternetstockstendedtohave
extremelyhighP/Eratios,despitetheirlackofprofits,reflectinginvestors'optimismaboutthe
futureprospectsofthesecompanies.Ofcourse,theburstofthebubbleshowedthatsuch
confidencewasmisplaced.
Ontheotherhand,alowP/Eratiomayshowthatthecompanyhasapoortrackrecord.Onthe
otherhand,itmaysimplybepricedtoolowbasedonitspotentialearnings.Furtherinvestigation
isrequiredtodeterminewhetherthecompanywouldthenprovideagoodinvestmentopportunity.
1.PriceToEarningsRatio(P/E)=CurrentMarketPricePerShare/Aftertax
EarningsPerShare
2.DividendYield=AnnualDividendsPerShare/CurrentMarketPricePerShare
F.UsesandLimitationsofRatioanalysis
Uses
1.Toevaluateperformance,comparedtopreviousyearsandtocompetitorsandtheindustry
2.Tosetbenchmarksorstandardsforperformance
3.Tohighlightareasthatneedtobeimproved,orareasthatofferthemostpromisingfuture
potential
4.Toenableexternalparties,suchasinvestorsorlenders,toassessthecreditworthinessand
profitabilityofthefirm
Limitations
1.Thereisconsiderablesubjectivityinvolved,asthereisnocorrectnumberforthevarious
ratios.Further,itishardtoreachadefiniteconclusionwhensomeoftheratiosarefavorableand
someareunfavorable.
2.Ratiosmaynotbestrictlycomparablefordifferentfirmsduetoavarietyoffactorssuchas
differentaccountingpracticesordifferentfiscalyearperiods.Furthermore,ifafirmisengagedin
diverseproductlines,itmaybedifficulttoidentifytheindustrycategorytowhichthefirm
belongs.Also,justbecauseaspecificratioisbetterthantheaveragedoesnotnecessarilymean
thatthecompanyisdoingwellitisquitepossiblerestoftheindustryisdoingverypoorly.
3.Ratiosarebasedonfinancialstatementsthatreflectthepastandnotthefuture.Unlessthe
ratiosarestable,itmaybedifficulttomakereasonableprojectionsaboutfuturetrends.
Furthermore,financialstatementssuchasthebalancesheetindicatethepictureatonepointin
time,andthusmaynotberepresentativeoflongerperiods.
4.Financialstatementsprovideanassessmentofthecostsandnotvalue.Forexample,fixed
assetsareusuallyshownonthebalancesheetasthecostoftheassetslesstheiraccumulated
depreciation,whichmaynotreflecttheactualcurrentmarketvalueofthoseassets.
5.Financialstatementsdonotincludeallitems.Forexample,itishardtoputavalueonhuman
capital(suchasmanagementexpertise).Andrecentaccountingscandalshavebroughtlighttothe
extentoffinancingthatmayoccuroffthebalancesheet.
6.Accountingstandardsandpracticesvaryamongcountries,andthushampermeaningfulglobal
comparisons.
FinancialStatementsAnalysis
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ByProfessorPhilipRussel
PhiladelphiaUniversity
Philadelphia,PA
August,2004
Thisoutlinediscusseshowthemyriadofinformationpresentedinthefinancialstatementsisused
tofacilitatedecisionmakingbythemanagers,investors,regulators,competitors,banks,andother
interestedgroups.Theanalysisisperformedchieflybysummarizingthefinancialstatement
informationintoratios.Theoutlinewillassistyouingettingageneralunderstandingofthe
financialstatementsandidentifyingsomeofthekeyratios.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction
1.Introduction
Financialstatementanalysisinvolvesanalyzingthefirmsfinancialstatementstoextract
informationthatcanfacilitatedecisionmaking.Forexample,ananalysisofthefinancial
statementcanrevealwhetherthefirmwillbeabletomeetitslongtermdebtcommitment,
whetherthefirmisfinanciallydistressed,whetherthecompanyisusingitsphysicalassets
efficiently,whetherthefirmhasanoptimalfinancingmix,whetherthefirmisgeneratingadequate
returnforitsshareholders,whetherthefirmcansustainitscompetitiveadvantageetcWhilethe
informationusedishistorical,theintentisclearlytoarriveatrecommendationsandforecastsfor
thefutureratherthanprovideapictureofthepast.
Theperformanceofafirmcanbeassessedbycomputingkeyratiosandanalyzing:(a)Howisthe
firmperformingrelativetotheindustry?(b)Howisthefirmperformingrelativetotheleading
firmsintheirindustry?(c)Howdoesthecurrentyearperformancecomparetotheprevious
year(s)?(d)Whatarethevariablesdrivingthekeyratios?(e)Whatarethelinkagesamongthe
ratios?(f)Whatdotheratiosrevealaboutthefutureprospectsofthefirmforvariousstakeholders
suchasshareholders,bondholders,employees,customersetc.?Merelypresentingaseriesof
graphsandfigureswillbeafutileexercise.Weneedtoputtheinformationinapropercontextby
clearlyidentifyingthepurposeofouranalysisandidentifyingthekeydatadrivingouranalysis.
Financialanalysisisperformedbybothinternalmanagementandexternalgroups.Firmswould
performsuchananalysisinordertoevaluatetheiroverallcurrentperformance,identify
problem/opportunityareas,developbudgetsandimplementstrategiesforthefuture.External
groups(suchasinvestors,regulators,lenders,suppliers,customers)alsoperformfinancial
analysisindecidingwhethertoinvestinaparticularfirm,whethertoextendcreditetc.Thereare
severalratingagencies(suchasMoodys,Standard&Poors)thatroutinelyperformfinancial
analysisoffirmsinordertoarriveatacompositerating.
(a)CEO/Presidentslettersummarizingtheoperationsoflastyear,explanationsforgood/bad
performance,andadiscussiononthegoalsfortheimmediateandlongtermfuture.Itwillbea
goodideatoreviewthelettertoshareholdersofsomeprominentcompanies.WarrenBuffetof
BerkshireHathawayisfamousforwritingthemostinsightfulletters.
(b)FourFinancialStatements
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Thefinancialstatements(typicallypublishedeveryquarterandannually)arepreparedaccording
toGAAPandauditedbyindependentauditors.However,astherecentcorporatescandalshave
revealed,therearedefinitelytoomanygaps/loopholesinhowtheGAAPisimplemented!!.
Nonetheless,financialstatementsareaninvaluablesourceofinformation.
B1.BalanceSheet(alsoknownastheStatementofFinancialPosition):Thisprovidesthevalueof
firmsassets(whatthefirmowns),liabilities(whatthefirmowestooutsiders)andequity(what
theinsideshareholdersorownersown)onaparticulardate.Thevalueofassetswillequalthe
valueofliabilitiesplusownersequity(orA=L+E).Itemsinthebalancesheetarelistedbased
onconservativeprinciplei.e.ifestimatingorindoubtoftheactualvalue,thevalueofassetsis
notbeoverstatedandthevalueofliabilitiesisnotbeunderstated.
NetworthorBookValuereferstowhatisavailabletocommonshareholdersandisgivenby:
TotalAssetsTotalLiabilitiesPreferredStock=NetWorth
Networthdividedbynumberofcommonsharesoutstandingwillgiveusthebookvalue
pershare.Themarketvalueisequaltothepricepersharetimesthenumberofshares
outstanding(alsoreferredtoasthemarketcapitalizationofacompany).Wecanestimatethe
intrinsicvalueofstockbyusingdiscountedcashflowmodels.
Allassets(exceptLand)losetheirvalueovertimeandthisisaccountedforthrough
depreciation(forfixedassets),depletion(fornaturalresources)andamortization(for
intangibleassets/deferredcharges).
LimitationsofBalanceSheet:Thebalancesheetrecordsthevaluesofassetsandliabilitiesin
termsoftheiroriginalcost.Thisisespeciallymisleadingforfixedassets(thatcouldhave
significantlychangedinvalue).Also,itisdifficulttovalueintangibleassets.Currentassetsare
lesstroublesome,partlybecauseoftheirshorttermnature(inventoriesandmarketablesecurities
arelistedatloweroftheircostormarketvalues).Liabilitiesarealsonotbiased(sincetheyare
generallycontractual,andmarketvalueswillbeequaltotheirbookvaluesForexample,ifthe
companyhastakenaloan,thedollaramountofloanobligationdoesnotchangewithtime).Also,
ananalystshouldpaycloseattentiontooffbalancesheetitems.
B2.IncomeStatement(alsoknownasThestatementofearningsorprofit&lossstatementor
thestatementofoperations):Theincomestatementprovidesinformationonthevariousrevenue
andexpenseitemsduringacertainperiod.Thusthisstatementshowsthetotalincomegenerated
inacertainperiod.Itemsintheincomestatementarebasedonaccrualprinciplei.e.transactions
(suchassales)arerecognizedwhentheyoccurandnotwhenactualcashisreceived.
Furthermore,theexpensesarematchedtowhentherevenueisrecognizedandnotwhenthe
actualpaymentismade.Theaboveprinciplemakesitobviousthattherecouldbewide
discrepancybetweenafirmsrevenueandactualcashflow.
Thereareseveralformsofincomestatement.Anexampleofagenericformisasfollows:
SalesRevenue
CostofGoodSold
=GrossProfit
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SellingandAdministrativeexpenses
Depreciation
=EarningsBeforeInterestandTaxes(EBIT)
interestexpenses(onbankloansandbonds)
+interestincome
=EarningsbeforeTaxes(EBT)
taxes(currentanddeferred)
=EarningsafterTaxes(EAT)
+incomefromsubsidiaries(equityincome)
+/Gains/Lossesfromdiscontinuedoperations
+/Gain/lossonextraordinaryitems
=NetEarnings
PreferredStockDividends
=Earningsavailableforcommonshareholders
B3.StatementofRetainedEarnings(alsoknownastheStatementofchangesinshareholders
equity,statementofshareholdersinvestmentorstatementofchangesinshareholdersequity):It
showsthebalanceinretainedearningsaftermakingadjustmentsforcurrentprofitsandcurrent
dividend.Italsoshowsinformationontreasurystock,anynewsharesissued,theimpactof
exercisedoptions,preferredstockdetailsandadditionalpaidincapital.
B4. Cash Flow Statement: It shows how the company obtained cash and for what purpose they were used.
Thus cash balance at the end =
Cashinthebeginning
+NetCashflowfromoperating(incomestatementcashitems)
+NetCashflowfromfinancing(ex.proceedsfromsaleofbonds,repaymentofloan,
paymentofdividends)
+NetCashflowfrominvestingactivities(ex.Sale/purchaseofasset).
(c)Otherinformationintheannualreport
1.Notestofinancialstatements[1]
2.TheAuditorsreport
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AstheEnronfiascohasbroughttolight,thereisplentywrongwiththewayfinancialresultsare
reported.CongressionalcommitteeswilldeterminehowmuchofEnronstroublesweredueto
criminalactivity,andhowmuchduetopoorjudgmentandloopholes.But"managingresults"isan
oldgameonWallStreet.Theprosknowhowtoreadbetweenthelinestoidentifyshakyfinancials.
Theyreadthefootnotestothefinancialstatementscarefullyforcluesthatwilltellthemhow
aggressivelythecompanyispushingtouselegal,butmisleadingGAAP,rulestotheirlimit.
Sohereisalistofthingstolookforinfinancialstatementsthatwilltellyouasmuchormore
aboutthecompanythantheactualreportedresults.
First,WallStreetisnotyourfriend.Makingmoneyinastockmarketthatistradingflatisazero
sumgame.Foryoutoprofit,someoneelsemustlose.Beskepticalandverycarefulwhereyouget
yourinvestmentadvice.Questionthemotivesofsocalledexperts.Asofyet,therearenorules
ensuringthattheydisclosetheirconflictsofinterest.
Reservereversals Companies generally establish reserves to cover the costs of restructuring. Reserves allow
management to "store profits" for later use if the reserves are unusually large. At a later time, they can reverse
the reserve for the amount that was not spent and it flows directly to the bottom line.
PensionFunds are great sources of earnings manipulation. Boost earnings by under funding them or by
overestimating the investment return of the fund so that current payments will be lower and profits higher. If
the fund does particularly well, pull the excess back into the income statement to boost profits.
FootnotestoFinancialStatementsStatementscanmisleadandevadebuttheymustcomeclean
inthefootnotesorfacecriminalcharges.Thatswhytheproslookherefirst.Youwilllearnabout
riskexposure,debtthatchangescharacterundercertainconditions,theuseofaggressive
accountingpracticesandallsortsofotherdetailsthatmanagementwouldliketoavoidtellingyou.
Sales/NonSalesLookattherevenueandreceivablenumbersoverseveralyears.Istheratioof
receivablestosalesincreasing?Ifyes,thenthecompanyisshippinggoodsfasterthancustomers
arepayingforthem.Aredeferredrevenuesdropping?Ifso,thecompanyislivingofflastyears
sales.Inthecurrentslowdown,customerslooktochangesalestermstousethesuppliersmoney
asmuchaspossiblebyacknowledgingthesaleaslateaspossible.
CashFlowisKingTheprosknowthatitistooeasytomanipulateearningsnumbers.Sothey
focusoncashflowasbeingamorereliableindicatorofperformancebecausethecashiseither
thereoritisnt.Oneexpert,thinksacomparisonofcashflowvs.noncashrevenuecouldhave
beenanearlytipoftoEnroninvestors.
Goodwill Companies account for the premium over book value that they pay for an acquired company as
goodwill. Under the older accounting rules, companies could write down the payment for goodwill with a
charge against earnings spread out over decades. First Call estimates that, because of the goodwill accounting
change, analyst forecasts for 2002 are about three percentage points too high. As companies restate prior year
earnings to account for the change, earnings will shrink.
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EmployeeStockOptions 78% of companies with sales over $10 billion compensate management with stock
options. Yet accounting rules do not require the issuing of the option to be accounted for with an expense. In
the wake of Enron, this controversial and questionable rule may be changed. If so, one expert estimates that
many large tech companies may see an annual reduction in earnings of 1/3.
4.FinancialRatioAnalysis
Apopularwaytoanalyzethefinancialstatementsisbycomputingratios.Aratioisarelationship
betweentwonumbers,e.g.ratioofA:B=30:10==>Ais3timesB.Aratiobyitselfmayhave
nomeaning.Hence,agivenratioiscomparedto(a)ratiosfrompreviousyearsinternaltrends,
or(b)ratiosofotherfirmsinthesameindustryexternaltrends.Ratiosaremoreofadiagnostic
toolthathelpsustoidentifyproblemareasandopportunitieswithinacompany.Inthissection,
wewilldiscusshowtomeasureandinterpretsomekeyratios.Obviously,sinceratioissimplya
comparisonoftwovariables,thepossibilitiesfornumberofratiosareendless!Thereisnoone
wayofclassifyingvariousratiossoyoumayfinddifferentgroupingsdependingonwhattextor
articleyouread.Also,therearenospecificrulesonwhatisanidealoracceptablenumberfora
ratio,althoughtherearesomerulesofthumb.
Thekeyratiosthataredeterminedbythefinancialanalystsprovideinsightson(a)liquidity(b)
degreeoffinancialleverageordebt(c)profitability(d)efficiencyand(e)value.
A. Analyzing Liquidity
Liquidassetsarethoseassetsthatcanbeconvertedintocashquickly.Theshorttermliquidity
ratiosshowthefirmsabilitytomeetshorttermobligations.Thusahigherratio(#1and#2)
wouldindicateagreaterliquidityandlowerriskforshorttermlenders.TheRuleofThumb(for
acceptablevalues):CurrentRatio(2:1),QuickRatio(1:1)Whilehighliquiditymeansthatthe
companywillnotdefaultonitsshorttermobligations,notethatbyretainingassetsascash,
valuableinvestmentopportunitiesmightbelost.Obviously,Cashbyitselfdoesnotgenerateany
return...onlyifitisinvestedwillwegetfuturereturn.Inquickratio,wesubtracttheinventories
fromtotalcurrentassetssincetheyaretheleastliquid(amongthecurrentassets).
1.CurrentRatio=TotalCurrentAssets/TotalCurrentLiabilities
2.QuickorAcidtestRatio=TotalCurrentAssetsInventories/TotalCurrentLiabilities
B. Analyzing Debt
Theseratiosshowtheextenttowhichafirmisrelyingondebttofinanceits
investments/operationsandhowwellitcanmanagethedebtobligation(i.e.repaymentofprincipal
andperiodicinterest).Obviously,ifthecompanyisunabletorepayitsdebtormaketimely
paymentsofinterest,itwillbeforcedintobankruptcy.Onthepositiveside,useofdebtis
beneficialasitprovidesvaluabletaxbenefitstothefirm.Notetotaldebtshouldincludeboth
shorttermdebt(bankadvances+currentportionoflongtermdebt)andlongtermdebt(suchas
bonds,leases,andnotespayable).Sometextsmayincludeonlylongtermdebt.Again,whatyou
usewilldependonwhatyourquestionis.
1. Leverage Ratios
1aAssetEquityRatioorLeverageRatio=Assets/ShareholdersEquity
Thisshowsfirmsrelianceonexternaldebtforfinancing(orthedegreeofleverage).
Anynumberabove100%showsthatthecompanyreliesonexternaldebtforfinancingsomeofits
assets.Ifthenumberequals100%,itimpliesthattheassetsarefullyfinancedbythe
shareholders.
SomeanalyststendtousetheDebtratio(givenbytotalDebt/totalassets)orDebt/Equityratio
(givenbytotallongtermdebt/equity).Theseratiosalsoshowcompanysrelianceonexternal
sourcesforfinancingitsassets.Ratio1dshowswhatproportionofthetotallongtermcapital
comesfromdebt.
1bTotalDebtratio=TotalDebt/Totalassets
1c.DebtEquityRatio=TotalDebt/Equity
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1d.LongtermDebttocapital=Debt/Debt+Equity
Foralender,moreimportantthanthedegreeofleverageisthefirmsabilitytoservicethedebt
andthisiscapturedinthefollowingtworatios.
2.InterestCoverageRatio=EBIT/AnnualInterestExpense
Thisshowsthefirmsabilitytocoverfixedinterestcharges(onbothshorttermandlong
termdebt).Themarginofsafetythatisacceptablewillvarywithinandacrossindustries,andwill
alsodependontheearningshistoryofafirm.
NetCashflowisequaltoNetIncome+/noncashitems(equityincome+minorityinterestin
earningsofsubsidiary+deferredincometaxes+depreciation+depletion+amortization
expenses).Sincedepreciationisthebiggestdollarterm,oftentimesanalystswouldapproximate
NetcashflowasbeingequivalenttoEBIT+depreciation.
Cashflowisacriticalvariableinassessingacompany.Ifacompanyisshowingstrongprofits
buthaspoorcashflow,youshouldinvestigatefurtherbeforepassingafavorableopiniononthe
company.Financialanalystspreferusingratio#3toratio#2,althoughratio#2ismorewidely
reported.
Profitabilityisarelativeterm.Itishardtosaywhat%ofprofitsrepresentsaprofitablefirmas
theprofitswilldependontheproductlifecycle(forexampleprofitswillbelowerintheinitial
years),competitiveconditionsinthemarket,borrowingcosts,expensemanagementetc.Profits
canalsobeanalyzedusingtheframeworkofCVP(costvolumeprices).Analystswillbeinterested
inthe(historicalandforecasted)trendofsales/expenses/profitsaretheprofitsgenerallyon
therise,arethesalesstableorrising,howdotheprofitscomparetotheindustryaverage,isthe
marketshareofthecompanyrising/stable/falling?Aretheexpensesrising,stableorfalling?The
setofratioshereincludesomeofthetraditionalearningsbasedperformancemeasuressuchas
ROS,ROA,ROI,andROE.Forabetterunderstandingofgrowthrates,itwillbeusefultoknowthe
realgrowthrateasopposedtonominalgrowthrate.Forexample,itisquitepossiblethatthe
salesgrowthratefiguresareimpressiveduetoinflation(ratherthananincreaseinthenumberof
itemssold).Thisisparticularlyusefulifwearedealingwithhighinflationperiodorconductingan
extendingtimeseriesanalysis.
1.SalesGrowthRate={(Currentyearsaleslastyearsales)/lastyearsales}*100
2.Expenseanalysis=Variousexpenses/Sales
3.GrossMargin/Sales=GrossProfit/TotalSales
4.OperatingProfit/Sales=OperatingProfit/NetSales
5.EBIT/Sales=EBIT/NetSales
7.ReturnonInvestment(ROI)=NetIncome/TotalAssets
10.Payoutratio=CashDividends/NetIncome
11.Retentionratio=RetainedEarnings/NetIncome
12.Sustainablegrowthrate(SGR)=ROE*RetentionRatio
ItisusefultodisaggregatetheROEfigureintothreeelementsasfollowstogetabetterinsight
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ROE={NetIncome/Sales}*{Sales/Assets}*(Assets/Equity)
TheaboveformulationclearlyshowsthatifmanagementwishestoimprovetheirROE,theyneed
toimproveprofitability,efficientlyusetheassets,andoptimizetheuseofdebtintheircapital
structure.ThustwocompanieswithsimilarprofitabilitymayhavedifferentROEsdependingon
theirdegreeoffinancialleverage.Ifwecombinethiswithratio#10,wecanseethatafirms
growthratewilldependonallofthesefactorsplustheirdividedpolicy.Thusitcoversthethree
mainfinancialdecisionsinanycorporation:investmentdecision,operatingdecisionandfinancing
decision.
SGRshowshowmuchthecompanywillgrowinthefutureifsomeofthekeyratiosremainthe
sameasinpreviousyears.Itisusefultodisaggregatethesustainablegrowthrateasfollows.
SGR=f(Profitability,AssetEfficiency,Leverage,Dividendpolicy)
=ReturnonSales*Assetturnoverratio*Leverage*Retentionratio
=(Netincome/sales)*(sales/assets)*(assets/equity)*(RE/netincome)
D.AnalyzingEfficiency
Theseratiosreflecthowwellthefirmsassetsarebeingmanaged.Theinventoryratiosshow
howfasttheinventoryisbeingproducedandsold.Ratio#1showshowquicklytheinventoryis
beingturnedover(orsold)togeneratesales...higherratioimpliesthefirmismoreefficientin
managinginventoriesbyminimizingtheinvestmentininventories.Thusaratioof12wouldmean
thattheinventoryturnsover12timesortheaverageinventoryissoldinamonth.Obviously,this
ratioshouldbehigherforWAWA(sellingperishablegoods)relativetoaVWcardealer.Some
textsprefertouseendinginventoryratherthanaverageinventory.Highratiobyitselfdoes
notmeanhighlevelofefficiencyashighratiocouldalsomeanshortages.Ensurethattherehas
beennochangeininventoryreportingpolicy(LIFO,FIFO)duringtheanalysisperiod.Ratio#2is
referredtoastheshelflifei.e.howmanydaystheinventorywasheldintheshelf.Ratio#3
showshowmuchsalesthefirmisgeneratingforeverydollarofinvestmentinassetsnaturally,
higherthebetter.However,notethatthisratioisbiased(asassetsarelistedathistoricalcosts
whilesalesarebasedoncurrentprices).Ratios#4and#5showthefirmsefficiencyincollecting
fromcreditsales.Whilealowratioisgooditcouldalsomeanthatthefirmisbeingverystrictin
itscreditpolicy,whichmaydriveawaysomecustomers.Ratios#6and7focusonefficiencyin
makingpayments.Combininginventories,accountsreceivableandaccountspayablewegetratio
#8,whichshowsthefinancingperiodtofundworkingcapitalneeds.Longertheperiod,greaterthe
shorttermliquidityrisk.
1.InventoryTurnover=CostofGoodsSold/AverageInventory
2.DaysinInventory=(AverageInventory/CostofSales)*365
3.Assetsturnover=NetSales/TotalAssets
4.ReceivablesTurnover=CreditSales/AccountsReceivables
5.AverageCollectionperiod=(AccountsReceivable/NetSales)*365
6.AccountsPayableturnover=Purchases/AccountsPayable
7.DaysAPoutstanding=(AccountsPayable/CostofSales)*365
8.FinancingPeriod=AverageCollectionperiod+daysininventorydaysAPoutstanding
E.AnalyzingValue
Earningspershare(EPS)iswidelyreportedalthoughitisnowlesscloselyfollowed(after
academictheoryinsightsintothedrawbackofEPSandimportanceofcashflowbasedmeasures).
SECrequiresthatthecompanyreportbothbasicanddilutedEPS.BasicEPSusestheactual
numberofsharescurrentlyoutstandinginthemarketwhiledilutedEPSusescurrentlyoutstanding
shares+allpotentialshares(duetoconvertibilityofdebtorpreferredstockaswellasexerciseof
stockoptions,rightsandwarrants).Dividendyield,whilewidelyreported,maynotcontainmuch
usefulinformationbyitself(especiallywhencomparingacrossfirms)sincedividendpoliciesvary
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acrossfirms.Furthermore,priceappreciation(asopposedtodividends)isthemoreimportant
sourceofyieldforshareholders.
ValueratiossuchasPEratioshowtheembeddedvalueinstocksandareusedbytheinvestors
asascreeningdevicebeforemakingtheirinvestment.Forexample,ahighP/Eratiomaybe
regardedbysomeasbeingasignofoverpricing.Whenthemarketsarebullishorifthe
investorsentimentisoptimisticaboutaparticularstock,theP/Eratiowilltendtobehigh
indicatingthatinvestorsarewillingtopayahighpriceforcompanysearnings.Forexample,in
late1990sinternetstockshadextremelyhighP/Eratios(despitetheirlackofearnings)reflecting
investorsoptimismaboutthefutureprospectsofthesecompanies.Ofcourse,theburstofthe
bubbleshowedthatsuchconfidencewasmisplaced.PSratiocanbecombinedwithPEratioto
analyzeacompany.Ratio#7isusefulforvaluingcompaniessuchasinternetservicesorcable
servicesthatrelyprimarilyonmemberstogenerateincome.Thusanassessmentofmembers
(totalmembers,currentandfutureexpectedgrowthrate,andaveragespendingbymember)can
provideusefulguidelineinvaluingsuchcompanies(especiallywhenplanningacquisitions).
1.EarningsperCommonshare(EPS)=(NetEarningsPreferredDividend)
#ofsharesoutstanding
2.EarningsYield=1/EPS
3.CashflowperShare(CPS)=NetCashFlows/#ofsharesoutstanding
4.DividendYield=AnnualDividend/CurrentMarketprice
5.PriceearningRatio(PE)=MarketPricepershare/EPS
6.PriceSalesRatio(PS)=Marketpricepershare/Salespershare
7.MembershipValue=#ofmembers*valuepermember
8.FreeCFpershare=(NetCashflowfromOperationsCapitalExpenditure)/#ofshares
9.TotalShareholderReturn(TSR)=(EndingPrice+DividendBeginningPrice)/BeginningPrice
10.EVA=EATCostofFinancing(thatis,NetCapitalAssetsEmployed*WACC)
Uses
1.Toevaluateperformance(comparedtopreviousyears&peers)
2.Tosetbenchmarksorstandardsforperformance
3.Tohighlightareasthatneedtobeimprovedorhighlightareasthatofferthemost
promisingfuturepotential
4.Toenableexternalparties(suchasinvestors/lenders)inassessingthe
creditworthiness/profitabilityofthefirm.
Limitations
1.Thereisconsiderablesubjectivityinvolvedasthereisnotheoryastowhatshouldbethe
rightnumberforthevariousratios.Further,itishardtoreachadefiniteconclusionwhen
someoftheratiosarefavorableandsomeareunfavorable.
2.Ratiosmaynotbestrictlycomparablefordifferentfirmsduetoavarietyoffactorssuchas
differentaccountingpractices,differentfiscalyear.Furthermore,ifafirmisengagedin
diverseproductlinesitisdifficulttoidentifytheindustrycategorytowhichthefirm
belongs.Also,justbecauseaspecificratioisbetterthantheaveragedoesnotnecessarily
meanthatthecompanyisdoingwell(itisquitepossiblerestoftheindustryisdoingvery
poorly)
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3.Ratiosarebasedonfinancialstatementsthatreflectthepastandnotthefuture.Unless
theratiosarestable,onecannotmakereasonableprojectionsaboutthefuturetrend.
4.Financialstatementsprovideanassessmentofthecostsandnotvalue.Forexample,the
marketvalueofitemsmaybeverydifferentfromthecostfiguregiveninthebalance
sheet.
5.Financialstatementsdonotincludeallitems.Forexample,itishardtoputavalueon
humancapital(suchasmanagementexpertise).
6.Accountingstandardsandpracticesvaryacrosscountriesandthushampermeaningful
globalcomparisons.
7.Managementdecisionmakingisadynamicprocessinaconstantlychangingenvironment
whileratioanalysisisastaticanalysisbasedonhistoricaldata.
8.Thelinkageamongvariousratiosisnotreadilyobvious.
LearnbyDoing:Reviewthewebsiteofanypubliclytradedcompanyandreviewtheannual
reportandseeifyoucanunderstandthevariousitemsonthefinancialstatements.Next,
computethevariousratiosbasedonthisoutlineandinterpretthem.
Somegoodsourcesofinformationonfinancialstatements
oOnreadingannualreport:http://www.ibm.com/investor/financialguide/gs/gs3b.phtml
oOnreadingfinancialstatements:http://www.ibm.com/investor/financialguide/
oOurlibraryalsohassomeexcellentlinkstodatabases:http://www.philau.edu/library/
[1]Someoftheitemscommonlyfoundinthenotesare:Anexplanationoftheaccounting
methodsusedfordepreciation,offbalancesheetitems(suchasderivativecontracts),detailson
leases,impactofdivestitureandacquisitiononthefinancialstatements.
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