Rami HH Unlhep 8aug2017 4b

Expected limits for
HH to bbZZ to 2b 2l 2nu
Rami Kamalieddin, Ilya Kravchenko (UNL)
Michele de Gruttola (CERN)
Lesya Shchutska (ETH)
UNLHEP meeting, 8 Aug 2017

2
OUTLINE
Updated theory introduction
Analysis strategy and goals
Analysis overview and updates
Mass boundary for low/high mass splitting
Optimization of selection BDT cut
Distributions of BDT and HH_mt in SR and CRs
Datacard with some systematics
From r to limits
Conclusions
Next steps
Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

3
Updated theory introduction
Current HH searches focus in two areas:
BSM resonant production:

- Many different BSM models predict HH resonances
- Solution for analysts: work on model independent results
on narrow width resonances
- Two classes of particles: spin-0 (Radion) and spin-2 (Graviton)
- Mass range starting from 2*mH: 250 -1000 GeV

4
Theory, cont.
BSM resonant production

non-resonant production:
- HH is the only direct test of the Higgs self-coupling!
- SM and BSM non-resonant production by introducing 6th order EFT terms
in the Lagrangian and testing the standard BSM benchmarks

5
Theory, cont. 2

BSM resonant production
non-resonant production
If k equals 10, then BSM is 10 times

bigger than *SM!
SM
We are interested in all HH activities
From A. Carvalho
* HHSM= 33.45fb @ 13 TeV

6
Analysis strategy

7
Recap and final decision
Object Select Prepare input Limits

selection Candidate to Combine
Requirements BDT with Simple shape Derive the

on leptons, nine of HH_mt best limits
jets and met variables we can
Our objective is:

Set 95% CL limit on (pp X hh) BR(hh bbZZ bbllmet )
vs mass of X (where X is the BulkGraviton as the first analysis target)
The method we will use to achieve it:

Binned shape analysis using Higgs Combination Tool

8
Analysis goals
Focus on spin-2 resonant measurement first
At the advanced stage (~pre-approval level) may consider adding

spin-0 and non-resonant cases
- preparing already now: producing non-res samples, discussing
strategy and methodology
Write documentation:
- working on AN-17-198
- for the pre-approval we may need to write a PAS
HH group will be working on the combination papers, first non-res

combination of matured and approved analyses, then combination
of resonant results
- we aim to be in!

9
Analysis overview

10
2b 2l 2 signature
MET from the off shell Z* boson
H ZZ*
2 leptons (eles, muons) from on shell Z
H bb
2 b-jets from the Higgs bb
In our analysis we have HH decay through:

H to bb to give the highest BR
H to ZZ*, with Z to ll to give important handles,
which improves sensitivity
* Pic based on the plot from bbWW team

11
Recent analysis updates

12
Analysis updates in progress

Changed Control Region (CR) definition to be orthogonal with bbWW
Updating many parts of the analysis to the most recent POG

recommendations/corrections available:
- regressed jet quantities to shrink the resolution and decrease scale bias
- most recent lepton SFs
- maybe CMVAv2 for b-tagging
Requested new dedicated bbZZ samples:

- crab-ed them already!
- spotted that one becnhmark is missing,
will be fixed once experts are back from the vacation
Will train new MVA discriminants (perhaps again BDT) using new
big statistics samples
Will add several shape systematic uncertainties to the framework
Recompute limits, start working on the combination with the other channels

13
Mass boundary for low/high mass

splitting of the 250 1000 GeV range
Split the region in two:

Train only two BDTs, not 10-16!
Follow the path of simplification adopted by several matured analysis
Increase available signal statistics

14
Test of several boundary option

We stitch signal samples with the weight 1, separating 2501000 GeV
range into low/high mass regions.
Then we test four mass splitting cases training eight independent MVAs:
Mass boundary AUC AUC
300 GeV 0.9138 0.9805
350 GeV 0.9037 0.988
400 GeV 0.9074 0.9928
450 GeV 0.9086 0.9957
We chose the fourth option.
For the analysis, doing the low/high mass BDT training,

we use the same set of nine variables:
Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 8 Aug 2017

15
Optimization of the BDT cut

16
Limit vs cut on BDT

For the 1st version of the expected limits, we pick 260 and 400 GeV
samples in the low mass region
For each BDT cut, produce HH_mt shape and derive expected limit.
Scan the whole BDT range to find the best value of the limit.
bbVV, Xsec 1pb, mass = 260GeV bbVV, Xsec 1pb, mass = 400GeV
45
'r' from 'Combine'
'r' from 'Combine'

10
40
35
8
30
25 6
20
4
15
10
2
5
0 0
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Cut on BDT value Cut on BDT value
After cut at 0.5, limit growths for 260 GeV case with BDT cut value
For simplicity, for both low mass region samples we pick cut at 0.5
Of course, when new samples arrive, will optimize BDT cut for
each mass point separately
17
Limit vs cut on BDT, cont.

In the high mass region, we pick 650 and 900 GeV samples:
bbVV, Xsec 1pb, mass = 600GeV bbVV, Xsec 1pb, mass = 900GeV
'r' from 'Combine'
'r' from 'Combine'

10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
1 0.5 0 0.5 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 1
Cut on BDT value Cut on BDT value
Both samples show the best limit at the BDT cut of 0.95

18
Definitions of the Signal Region (SR)

and Control Regions (CRs)
Hbb mass
150
90
76 106 Zll mass
Drell-Yan Control region (CRDY)

tt Control region (CRTT)
19
Distributions of BDT and HH_mt, 400 GeV
SR CRDY CRTT
Low statistics in CRs, need bigger samples to draw any conclusions

20
Datacard with some systematics

21
400 GeV, signal region

22
From r to limits

23
Derivation of the expected limits
As of now, do not split bbVV into ZZ and WW components,

keep both and manipulate with cuts to be orthogonal to bbWW
For bbVV signal samples we used xsec of 1pb
We run simple command:
combine -M Asymptotic -t -1 m massValue --run blind comb_card_massValue.txt
Obtained value of r we multiply by 1000 to get 95% CL limit on (pp X hh)

BR(hh bbVV bbllmet ) in fb, with the emphasis on the ZZ selection

24
Fit results from combine
Mass DY_norm TT_norm
260 GeV 1.0295 +/- 0.00492473 1.03318 +/- 0.0136259
400 GeV 1.03649 +/- 0.00479558 1.0215 +/- 0.0130207
650 GeV 1.04855 +/- 0.00586312 1.05314 +/- 0.0207581
900 GeV 1.04189 +/- 0.00506078 1.04724 +/- 0.0180156

25
Expected limits
260 GeV 400 GeV 650 GeV 900 GeV

Expected 2.5%: r < 1668.5 Expected 2.5%: r < 1262.2 Expected 2.5%: r < 128.4 Expected 2.5%: r < 60.8

26
Possible improvements
+ Regressed jet quantities
+ Add EGamma data
+ New more powerful MVA discriminant
Some shape uncertainties and corrections

can eat up the limit

27
Conclusions
Analysis strategy is finalized
Optimization of the BDT cut is shown
Machinery for the derivation of the limits is in place:

- suggestions to improve limits will be be taken into account
- missing shape systematics will be added
- reoptimization will be done once new big samples arrive
Will use new specific big bbZZ signal samples

28
Double Higgs is not easy,

but it is doable!
If it sounds complicated, you are not the only one
...the screenshot that I

took from the real HH talk!
Even Joe Incandela looks

double confused...

29
BACK UP for
HH bbZZ 2b 2l 2nu

30
Loose selection for BDT training
Apply almost no cuts to give BDT as much info as possible.

Few cuts though had to be applied to avoid NaNs
HH common sense preselection:

Dilepton (ee/) mass > 50 GeV
2 Jets: pt > 30 GeV and || < 2.4
75 GeV < Hbb mass < 175 GeV
56 GeV < Dilepton mass < 126
Transverse mass of HH > 100 GeV

31
HH candidate and SR/CRs

Loose selection for BDT (previous slide)
Cut on BDT 0.5 or 0.95 (signal sample or > 450 GeV)
Then, based on the region:

SR: Dilepton mass = [76, 106], Hbb mass = [90, 150]
CRDY: Dilepton mass = [76, 106], Hbb mass = ]90-150[
CRTT: Dilepton mass >106, Hbb mass = [90, 150]
Hbb
150
90
76 106 Zll mass


Rami HH Unlhep 8aug2017 4b

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Expected limits for

UNLHEP meeting, 8 Aug 2017

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Updated theory introduction

Current HH searches focus in two areas:

BSM resonant production:

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Current HH searches focus in two areas:

BSM resonant production

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Current HH searches focus in two areas:

If k equals 10, then BSM is 10 times

* HHSM= 33.45fb @ 13 TeV

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Recap and final decision

Object Select Prepare input Limits

Requirements BDT with Simple shape Derive the

Our objective is:

The method we will use to achieve it:

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

At the advanced stage (~pre-approval level) may consider adding

HH group will be working on the combination papers, first non-res

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

2 leptons (eles, muons) from on shell Z

In our analysis we have HH decay through:

* Pic based on the plot from bbWW team

Recent analysis updates

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Analysis updates in progress

Updating many parts of the analysis to the most recent POG

Requested new dedicated bbZZ samples:

Will add several shape systematic uncertainties to the framework

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Mass boundary for low/high mass

Split the region in two:

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Test of several boundary option

We chose the fourth option.

For the analysis, doing the low/high mass BDT training,

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 8 Aug 2017

Optimization of the BDT cut

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Limit vs cut on BDT

'r' from 'Combine'

Limit vs cut on BDT, cont.

'r' from 'Combine'

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Definitions of the Signal Region (SR)

76 106 Zll mass

Drell-Yan Control region (CRDY)

Distributions of BDT and HH_mt, 400 GeV

Low statistics in CRs, need bigger samples to draw any conclusions

Datacard with some systematics

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

400 GeV, signal region

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Rami Kamalieddin (UNL) HHbbZZ2b2l2 UNLHEP meeting 8 Aug 2017

Derivation of the expected limits

As of now, do not split bbVV into ZZ and WW components,

For bbVV signal samples we used xsec of 1pb

We run simple command:

combine -M Asymptotic -t -1 m massValue --run blind comb_card_massValue.txt