xxx
...,
, 2012
................................................................................................................... 3
1. ............. 6
1.1
. ............................................................................................ 6
1.2
................................................................................................................ 9
1.3 ............................................. 10
1.4 .......................... 17
1.5 ................. 23
1.6 .................................................... 24
1.7 .............................. 29
2.
PricewaterhouseCoopers..................................................................... 31
2.1 PricewaterhouseCoopers .......................... 31
2.2 ... 35
2.3 ............................................................ 39
3.
PricewaterhouseCoopers ............................ 42
3.1 ......................... 42
3.2 .................... 46
3.3 ............... 47
3.4
........................................................................................................ 50
............................................................................................................ 51
................................................................... 53
2
.
,
,
. ,
, ,
, .
.
,
.
,
,
,
,
(, , ).
,
.
,
,
.
-
PricewaterhouseCoopers,
3
,
.
,
.
,
,
, ,
,
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
.
.
1.
;
2. ;
3. ;
4.
;
5. ;
4
6. ;
7.
PricewaterhouseCoopers;
8.
PricewaterhouseCoopers;
9. ;
10. ;
11. ;
12.
.
5
1.
1.1
.
, ,
.
- [2],
,
PMBoK [1]. , PMBoK
,
,
.
, ,
,
.
:
1.
,
.
,
,
6
.
.
, .
, . , ,
.
.
, ,
.
.
,
, :
, ;
, ,
. ,
,
,
.
,
.
, ,
.
.
.
,
7
.
.
.
.
,
. ,
,
. ,
,
.
.
. ,
, .
,
; ;
.
,
, .
. ,
.
8
1.2
[3] ,
,
,
.
,
,
- , ,
, ,
, ,
, .
B2B
,
.
, , .
-.
,
.
9
,
,
.
1.3
,
.
,
,
,
.
, ,
.
.
:
2.
10
, ,
.
, .
. , ,
,
.
.
,
. ,
,
, .
.
,
,
.
, ,
.
.
.
.
11
. ,
.
,
.
.
.
.
.
,
,
.
[4]
, [5] [6]
.
.
,
- .
12
. ,
,
.
,
,
. ,
,
.
, ,
,
, ,
.
-
, ,
.
,
.
.
, ,
.
,
, . ,
13
, [7]
:
.
, .
, ,
,
.
,
,
.
.
,
.
. -
. ,
,
, -
,
.
.
14
. ,
.
,
,
. ,
,
.
[8].
, ,
.
.
.
,
,
. ,
,
.
[9],
.
[10],
15
[11] [12],
.
,
,
.
,
, .
.
,
.
.
,
, ,
.
,
.
,
-.
, [13].
, ,
.
, ,
16
. ,
,
. , ,
.
-
, , [14]
.
.
, ,
,
,
.
.
,
,
.
,
,
.
1.4
,
, ,
,
.
17
[15]
:
3.
,
.
.
,
, .
,
.
[16].
, [17],
.
. ,
18
,
.
,
.
,
. - [18]
,
. ,
,
.
-
,
.
,
,
.
.
.
[19], ,
.
.
19
,
.
,
,
.
. ,
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
.
. ,
.
, [20],
,
: , c , ,
, .
,
,
.
, ,
:
, ,
,
, ;
20
;
,
;
, ;
, ,
, ;
,
.
, ,
[15],
, ,
:
,
.
,
.
,
.
.
.
21
,
, .
: ,
, ,
.
[21]. ,
, ,
,
.
,
,
.
- .
.
.
.
, ,
,
.
,
.
,
22
,
.
, ,
, .
,
,
.
,
, ,
.
1.5
, , ,
.
[22],
.
,
,
.
. ,
.
.
,
,
23
. ,
, .
.
, ,
,
.
,
, .
, ,
,
,
.
1.6
.
,
.
.
,
.
.
- [23]
,
24
:
, EVM, .
4.
EVM
,
,
.
, ,
[24].
. ,
,
.
,
,
.
,
.
[25].
. ,
25
.
,
-
. ,
.
- EVM.
.
.
- [23],
.
:
.
,
, , ,
.
26
,
, , .
,
,
.
EVM.
,
.
.
.
, EVM
,
, .
[26]
EVM
.
,
[27].
EVM .
.
, ,
.
,
.
27
. - ,
- ,
- ,
, .
, ,
.
. ,
,
.
,
.
. ,
, .
.
:
,
,
,
.
,
,
,
.
,
. , ,
28
,
,
,
.
,
,
.
1.7
,
.
[28] :
.
,
.
,
.
,
.
.
, ,
29
. , ,
,
.
30
2.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
2.1 PricewaterhouseCoopers
PricewaterhouseCoopers 1998
Price Waterhouse
Coopers & Lybrand. 150 : 1849
, 1854
, Cooper Brothers.
11 ( 1865 .) , ,
Price, Waterhouse & Co. 1957 Cooper Brothers & Co
(), McDonald, Currie and Co () Lybrand, Ross Bros &
Montgomery () , Coopers & Lybrand. 1982
Price Waterhouse.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
,
169 000
158 . Deloitte, Ernst&Young KPMG
" " [30].
PricewaterhouseCoopers
.
, , , -
31
: , -,
[30]. ,
,
,
, . ,
,
,
PricewaterhouseCoopers.
,
,
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers :
,
- (IBS)
[30].
PricewaterhouseCoopers
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers:
32
5. PricewaterhouseCoopers
.... ....
, -
. ( ,
) ,
.
, PricewaterhouseCoopers
, .
, ,
,
Soft Skills , , .,
. 1,5-2
. ,
33
Technical Update ,
, 3 ,
, ,
.
,
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers .
, ,
. ,
,
. ,
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Intern (), Consultant (), Senior
Consultant ( ),
Assistant Manager,
Manager (), Senior Manager ( ), Director ()
, , Partner (), ,
33 .
.
4
.
, .
, PricewaterhouseCoopers
on-the-job training,
. Secondments,
34
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers.
,
. , ,
,
, .
PricewaterhouseCoopers
,
.
, PricewaterhouseCoopers
[29].
2.2
PricewaterhouseCoopers. ,
,
,
, , .
,
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers . ,
,
35
,
.
,
. ,
,
,
.
,
.
.
.
,
,
.
,
, .
, ,
,
, ,
. ,
, .
,
, .
, ,
,
. ,
36
, ,
. , ,
,
, ,
. ,
,
PricewaterhouseCoopers
.
. :
,
,
,
.
,
. ,
.
, ,
. ,
, .
,
. ,
.
37
,
, ,
.
.
, ,
. ,
,
, .
,
, .
.
, ,
PricewaterhouseCoopers ,
.
- ,
.
,
, ,
.
, ,
,
.
38
2.3
,
.
, , PricewaterhouseCoopers
,
, .
,
. ,
,
20%,
.
.
,
. -,
, .
( 30%-
40%) ,
. -,
, .
10% 20%
, ,
, 80% .
.
39
, .
,
,
, .
,
.
. , ,
.
,
,
.
.
,
.
,
, ,
.
,
,
.
,
.
.
40
. ,
,
,
.
,
.
, ,
.
,
,
, .
,
PricewaterhouseCoopers.
41
3.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
3.1
,
PricewaterhouseCoopers:
,
, ,
,
.
. ,
PricewaterhouseCoopers
:
,
.
, ,
,
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers -
.
, ,
,
42
,
, ,
.
:
1.
(1 - ,2 -
) X1
,
X2
,
3
(1-5) 4
(1-5) 5
6
(1,2) 7
8
(1-5) 9
(1-5) 10
(1-5) 11
(1-5) 12
(1,2) 13
14
43
, ,
,
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers. -
,
.
51 , 01.01.2011
06.06.2011. ,
, .
,
, .
,
, . ,
,
,
.
, ,
.
.
,
,
, .
,
.
44
:
2.
R 0,926219438
R- 0,857882447
R-
0,780922226
0,060030956
51
3.
t- P-
X 1 -0,039849603 0,026830089 -1,485257957 0,145946546
X 2 0,003774169 0,015450247 0,244278879 0,808364409
X 3 -0,004464059 0,004581854 -0,974290797 0,336239218
X 4 0,019473568 0,013220516 1,472980931 0,149212948
X 5 0,057790315 0,008836885 6,539670511 1,17236E-07
X 6 -0,010658932 0,01146147 -0,929979484 0,358409868
X 7 -0,023927153 0,011537877 -2,07379175 0,045113315
X 8 -0,015596946 0,026744029 -0,583193563 0,563301096
X 9 0,002675535 0,010197897 0,26236146 0,794498064
X 10 -0,021573848 0,008960319 -2,407709934 0,021154537
X 11 0,010299042 0,007357666 1,399770343 0,169911232
X 12 -0,00385122 0,016289817 -0,236418875 0,814411612
X 13 0,011682253 0,033219653 0,351666927 0,727082995
X 14 -0,007741123 0,010824997 -0,715115488 0,479026043
, R- 0,86,
.
, , 95%
,
45
.
,
6%.
2%.
2%.
,
,
,
.
,
.
.
3.2
, .
.
:
46
.
,
.
,
. ,
.
,
.
.
3.3
, ,
,
. ,
:
,
.
47
,
,
.
, .
,
.
,
.
, ,
.
,
,
,
.
,
,
,
.
48
,
,
.
,
, ,
.
,
.
.
:
o ,
;
o ,
;
o ,
;
o
.
49
,
,
, ,
.
3.4
PricewaterhouseCoopers
,
:
,
,
, .
,
. ,
, .
,
. : 1)
,
; 2)
.
50
, ,
,
.
,
PricewaterhouseCoopers .
,
.
, .
,
, , ,
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers,
, .
,
. ,
,
51
.
.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
,
.
, ,
.
, ,
, , .
52
[2] Liu Ying-min, 2007 About the project item cost management// Shanxi
Architecture, 2007-11.
[3] Young Jang and Jinjoo Lee, 1998. Factors influencing the success of
management consulting projects// International Journal of Project Management
Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 67-72.
[4] Camargo, M., Rabenasolo, B., Jolly Desoldt, A.-M., Castelain, J.-M., 2003.
Application of the parametric cost estimation in the textile supply chain.// Journal
of Textile and Apparel, Technology and Management 3 (1), 1.
[6] Gu, Q (2003). Parametric cost estimating of new products and new technology
applications in electronic manufacturing. PhD Dissertation Proposal. North Dakota
State University.
[7] Orlando Duran, Juan Maciel, Nibaldo Rodriguez, 2012. Comparisons between
two types of neural networks for manufacturing cost estimation of piping
elements// Expert Systems with Applications 39 (2012) 77887795.
[9] Shepperd, M., & Schoeld, C, 1997. Estimating software project effort using
[10] Ahn, H., & Kim, K. J., 2009. Global optimization of case-based reasoning for
breast cytology diagnosis// Expert Systems with Applications, Volume 36, Issue 1,
January 2009, Pages 724734.
53
[11] Li, S. T. & Ho, H. F, 2009. Predicting nancial activity with evolutionary
fuzzy case-based reasoning.// Expert Systems with Applications. Volume 36, Issue
[12] Chang, P. C., Liu, C. H., & Lai, R. K.,2008. A fuzzy case-based reasoning
model for sales forecasting in print circuit board industries// Expert Systems with
[13] I.F Weustink, E ten Brinke, A.H Streppel, H.J.J Kals, 2000. A generic
framework for cost estimation and cost control in product design// Journal of
Materials Processing Technology, Volume 103, Issue 1, 2000, Pages 141-148.
[14] Sheryl Staub-French, Martin Fischer, John Kunz, Boyd Paulson, 2003. A
generic feature-driven activity-based cost estimation process// Advanced
Engineering Informatics, Volume 17, Issue 1, January 2003, Pages 23-39.
[15] Scott E. Burroughs and Gob Juntima, 2004, Exploring Techniques for
Contingency Setting// AACE 2004 Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., June
2004.
[16] Mills, A., 2001. A systematic approach to risk management for construction.//
Structural Survey, 19, 245252.
[17] Baccarini, D., 2006. The maturing concept of estimating project cost
contingency// Technology, 18, 134-142.
[19] Chen, D., & Hartman, F. T., 2000. A neural network approach to risk
assessment and contingency allocation// AACE International Transactions.
[20] Rifat Sonmez; Arif Ergin; and M. Talat Birgonul, 2007. Quantitative
Methodology for Determination of Cost Contingency in International Projects//
Journal of Management in Engineering, vol. 23, no. 1, 2007.
54
[21] Young Hoon Kwak, Rudy J. Watson , 2005. Conceptual estimating tool for
technology-driven projects: exploring parametric estimating technique //
Technovation, Volume 25, Issue 12, December 2005, Pages 1430-1436.
[22] John M. Nicholas, Herman Steyn, 2012. Cost Estimating and Budgeting,
Project Management for Engineering, Business, and Technology (Fourth Edition),
Pages 281-319
[23] Saad H. Al-Jibouri, 2003. Monitoring systems and their effectiveness for
project cost control in construction// International Journal of Project Management,
21, 145154.
[24] Gobourne J., 1973. Cost control in construction industry. London: Newnes,
Butterworths,
[26] Kim, B. C., & Reinschmidt, K. F., 2011. Combination of Project Cost
Forecasts in Earned Value Management//Journal Of Construction Engineering And
Management, 137(11), 958-966.
[27] Lipke, W., Zwikael, O., Henderson, K., Anbari, F., 2009. Prediction of project
outcome: the application of statistical methods to earned value management and
earned schedule performance indexes// International Journal of Project
Management 27 (4), 400407.
55