Sept-Nov 2017 US Weather Outlook

Cooler Fall than 2016 Expected for New Mexico & USA

Focus: Albuquerque & New Mexico

Overview: US
Raindance Weather
 Fall in New Mexico
Fall sees warm moist air gives way to frost and some snow.

This outlook will focus on how long the heat lingers into Fall, and whether Fall is
expected to be cold or wet or snowy.

Fall analogs are difficult because ocean, temperature and precipitation patterns
change rapidly.
For September, previous Summer analogs are used. For October-November, Fall analogs are
used as August ocean conditions look different to May, June & July.
Fall analogs use observed May-July (MJJ) conditions for oceans, weather & the sun to re-
create observed & expected conditions.
Summer analogs, used for September, were 1939 (x2), 1945, 1963, 1965, 1997 (x2), 2006 (x3),
2009, 2014, and performed well for temperatures in July and August.
Weather Bingo
 Current Ocean Anomalies
Currently, the North Atlantic and parts of the NE Pacific are cold, with most
other waters by the US warmer than average. An El Nino winter is no longer the
most likely winter outcome, as conditions look Neutral in the tropics.
 May-July Ocean Anomalies
After warming substantially from La Nina conditions in winter to near El Nino
conditions in early Summer, the tropical Pacific appears to be cooling.
The PDO remains positive (+0.59), but is much lower than last year (+1.88),
favoring a drier November.
In July 2017, Nino 3.4 had an anomaly of +0.4C, in July 2016 Nino 3.4 had an
anomaly of -0.5C. The May-July ONI value for Nino 3.4 in 2017 was +0.2C higher
than in May-July 2016, which favors a cooler November.
The Atlantic is still very warm, but much colder than May-July 2016.
Solar activity is weaker than last year, and blocking has shown up in the Summer
pattern leading to unusual positioning of high and low pressure centers in the US.
Weak solar activity also favors cooler/wetter Septembers.

Taken together, these signals mean:

A cooler/drier November than 2016,
A cooler/wetter October than 2016,
A cooler/wetter September than 2016.

October is often wet when the PDO is near 0, while November is often wet when the PDO is
very positive. November highs in Albuquerque correlate well to May-July ONI readings, with
warmer readings favoring cooler Novembers. These changes are broadly consistent with
what happened in Summer weve had much cooler temperatures in June & July than
2016.
 October-November Analogs

Fall Matches: 1932 (x1), 1944 (x1), 1952 (x1), 1953 (x3), 1996 (x2), 2006 (x5)
Basis: ONI in MJJ, ONI in MJJ- ONI in the prior DJF, AMO MJJ, PDO MJJ, July-
June Sunspots, MJJ ABQ High, MJJ 90F Days in ABQ.
 Fall Expectations: Albuquerque

Analog data was centered on ~1980. When adjusted for much warmer lows in
Albuquerque, the data shows ~8 nights with a frost this Fall. Snow is expected to be
above average, even when adjusted for the gradual decline in Fall snow since 1952,
1953, and 1996 all had good snows in November. The number of hot (>=80F) & cold
(<=50F) highs will be slightly below average.

Precipitation, adjusted for increasing Fall wetness, is expected to be 30% above

average, particularly in October. Adjusted for increasing rain over time in October, the
month should be 40-60% wetter than the long-term mean of 0.85.

Mean high for September is expected to be 80.8F (-1.8F), largely due to heavy rain in
August and/or September, with October 69.9F (-1.4) and November 58.2F (+0.9) also
near average. The Fall mean high is forecast to be 3F colder than Fall 2016 (72.6F).
Fall Expectations: New Mexico

The strongest signal for enhanced

snowfall in New Mexico during the
Fall appears to in Northeastern
New Mexico, where backdoor cold
fronts and heavy rains have been
most persistent during the Summer.
Albuquerque, Roswell & Jemez
Springs are all well above normal,
but that is only an extra 1-2 inches
of snow overall. Red River came in
8 inches above average. Chama
came in 7 inches below average
suggesting northwest areas may
have poor snows in the Fall.
Fall 2017 Analogs: September Highs
Fall 2017 Analogs: October Highs
Fall 2017 Analogs: November Highs
Fall 2017 US Map
 Albuquerque Fall 2017 Overall
September is forecast to be 80.8F: 1.8F cooler than average against
1931-2016, as August and/or September will nearly always (30/31
times) be wetter than July after a dry July in Albuquerque (<=1).
September will be hot if the Aug-Sept rains fail.

November temperatures correlate well to ONI in MJJ, so with a warmer

ONI, November is expected to be cooler than last year, but still above
average, +0.9F against the long term mean of 57.3F.
October rains & November snows in the analogs also will cool November.

October is forecast wet. October is often very wet when the PDO value
is relatively close to 0. This has not been the case in several years, but
the PDO is lower than 2016. Wetness in October should keep the month
cool. The forecast calls for October to be 6F colder than the warm 75.9F
observed in October 2016, falling to 1.4F below the 86 year mean.
October will be hotter by 1-2F if September rains fail.

November high temperatures are sensitive to snow, so if the 1952,

1953, 1996 analogs play out in November, the month may cool rapidly
after a sizable snowstorm. November is expected to be drier than last
year though, which was a top-ten November for moisture.
 Early Winter Outlook Ideas
Winter Outlook release: Sept 15-Oct 15. Will cover Oct-May snow.
Much colder winter than last year favored as long as there is not a La Nina.
Why? Solar Activity is low. The Atlantic is Warm.
El Nino with low-solar usually produces a cold winter in Albuquerque but
Neutral with a warm Atlantic also usually produces a cold winter in Albuquerque.
Cold La Nina winters are rare & hard to predict, but La Nina is unlikely for winter.
Drier winter likely. Very rare to have four winters in a row with >1.3
precipitation in Albuquerque. Weve had three wet winters in a row.
July 2017 highs were 3.5F colder than 2016, which means December will likely
see more snow than last year (>0.1).
Low solar El Nino & warm Atlantic (AMO) Neutrals include:
El: 1953, 1963, 1965, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2009
N: 1931, 1932, 1937, 1943, 1944, 1948, 1952, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 2001, 2003,
2012
Mean high for low-solar El Nino winters is 47.5F, with warm AMO Neutrals coming in
at 47.9F. Recent years for these patterns are 2001, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012.
Many of the Low Solar El Nino & warm Atlantic Neutrals showed up as top Fall
analogs (1932, 1944, 1952, 1953, 2006).
Winter analogs will incorporate low-solar activity, warm Atlantic (AMO+)
winters, winters after La Nina winters, and Neutral winter ONI values. It is still
up in the air what the PDO, Modoki, and Monsoon will be.