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ANLISIS DE INTERVENCIN
1 Introduccin
2 Anlisis de Intervencin
2.1 Formulacin del modelo
2.2 Estimacin del modelo
3 Atpicos.
3.1Tipos de atpicos
3.2 Efectos
3.3 Deteccin y estimacin
1. INTRODUCCIN
yt ~ ARIMA(p,d,q) t = 1, , T
Lyt = yt-1
(L) = 1 - 1L - - p Lp
(L) = 1 - 1L - - q Lq
(L)
Representacin de medias mviles yt = (L) at; (L) =
(L)(1- L)d
(L)(1- L)d
Representacin autorregresiva (L) yt = at; (L) =
(L)
2 ANLISIS DE INTERVENCIN
2.1 FORMULACIN DEL MODELO CON ANLISIS DE INTERVENCIN
ir 1i ri
1. 0
F-3 F-2 F-1 F F+1 F+2 F+3
1.2
Escaln: toma el valor cero antes 0.8
1
de F y 1 posteriormente. 0.6
0.4
0.2
0
F-3 F-2 F-1 F F+1 F+2 F+3
7
6
(b) w0 F
It
1 L
w0
= w0 (1 + L + 2 L2 + ... + s Ls + ...) = w0 + w0L + w0 2 L2 + w0 s Ls
1 L
En este caso, los efectos de la intervencin se extienden a lo largo
del tiempo con una estructura determinada por el parmetro .
w0
Ejemplo de una intervencin del tipo 1 L
I tF
(b) w0
S tF
1 L
Efecto total:
1
w0
1
3.1Tipos de atpicos
AO Z t = Yt + w AO I t (t *) e Zt = eYt + w AO ( L ) I t (t *)
IO Z t = ( B )( a t + w IO I t (t *)) e Zt = eYt + w IO I t (t *)
w LS (L)
LS Z t = Yt + I t ( t *) e Zt = eYt + w AO I t ( t *)
1 L 1 L
wTC (L)
TC Z t = Yt + I t ( t *) e Zt = eYt + w AO I t ( t *)
1 L 1 L
Z t = X t + AI
-2
-4
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
20
S e ries :PH I_ES T
O bse rva tions 100
16
Mean 0.686653
Median 0.693455
12 Maximum 0.861913
Minimum 0.460367
Std. Dev. 0.077900
8 Skewness -0.649827
Kurtosis 3.256252
4 Jarque-Bera 7.311519
Probability 0.025842
0
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
16
Series: PHI_EST _AO
Observations 100
12 Mean 0.453455
Median 0.454829
Maximum 0.694611
8 Minimum 0.214190
Std. Dev. 0.102296
Skewness -0.268319
4 Kurtosis 2.654958
Jarque-Bera 1.695978
Probability 0.428275
0
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
0 si t < 35
X t = 0.7 X t 1 + at AI = 7 ESCALN( 35 ) =
7 si t 35
Z t = X t + AI
Mo d e lo AR (1 ) d e p a ra m e tro p h i= 0 . 7
4
-2
-4
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Mo d e lo AR (1 ) d e p a ra m e tro p h i= 0 . 7 LS w= 3
8
-2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
9
8 S e rie s : P H I_ E S T
O b s e r v a t io n s 1 0 0
7
Mean 0.681781
6 Median 0.688562
5 Maximum 0.822342
4 Minimum 0.472625
Std. Dev. 0.072297
3 Skewness -0.416924
2 Kurtosis 2.956225
1 Jarque-Bera 2.905072
0 Probability 0.233976
0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80
14
S e r i e s : P H I_ E S T _ W
12 O b s e r v atio n s 1 0 0
10 Mean 0.922947
Median 0.923152
8 Maximum 0.967220
Minimum 0.861557
6 Std. Dev. 0.020676
Skewness -0.489409
4 Kurtosis 2.974582
2 Jarque-Bera 3.994708
0 Probability 0.135694
0.86 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96
x 2
2t a
(t ) =
e x LS (t )
( x3t )
1
LS LS t 3t
LS (t ) = 2 2
x 2
3t a
(t ) =
e x TC (t )
( x4t )
1
TC TC t 4t
LS (t ) = 2 2
x 2
4t a
Tcnicas avanzadas de series temporales 19
4. OTROS EFECTOS
Efecto Calendario
En series mensuales, el valor del agregado mensual depende de
la composicin del mes: del nmero de das laborables.
Por otro lado, los distintos das laborables no tienen el mismo
nivel de actividad, por tanto, considera el diferente nmero de das
de cada tipo que tiene cada mes.
L M X J V S D
ene-03 4 4 5 5 5 4 4
feb-03 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Ao bisiesto:
Es preciso incluir una variable que recoja el efecto de un da ms en el
mes de febrero cada 4 aos.
7
N t = D jt = longitud del mes t.
j =1
1
N *t = (N t + N t 12 + N t 24 + N t 36 )
4
LYt = N t N *t
5 5 7
log( X t ) = 0 LYt + M F D jt D jt + Z t
j =1 2 J =6
1 5 5 7
log( X t ) = LYt + M F D jt D jt + Z t
28.25 j =1 2 J =6
Tcnicas avanzadas de series temporales 23
X t = SS t + nt
1997 1998 1999 2000
January 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
February 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
March 1.00 0.00 0.40 0.00
April 0.00 1.00 0.60 1.00
May 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
June 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
July 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
August 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
September 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
October 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
November 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
December 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fiestas
Las fiestas se captan con el componente estacional, pero
algunas cambian de ao en ao.
La poblacin afectada por una fiesta puede cambiar segn su
carcter (Nacional o regional).
Incluso si la fiesta cae siempre en el mismo mes, el da de la
semana ser diferente y el efecto tambin ser diferente.
Es aconsejable incluir una variable que recoja el nmero de
fiestas nacionales y otra que incluya el nmero de fiestas
autonmicas en cada mes t.
MATRIC
200000
150000
100000
50000
0 date
Series Span (n of obs.) Ene1990 - Abr2002 (148) SA quality index (stand. to 10) 2.203 [0, 10] ad-hoc
Model Span (n of obs.) Ene1990 - Abr2002 (148) STATISTICS ON RESIDUALS
Method Tramo/Seats Ljung-Box on residuals 22.02 [0, 33.90] 5%
PRE-ADJUSTMENT Box-Pierce on residuals 0.63 [0, 5.99] 5%
Transformation Logarithm Ljung-Box on squared resid... 17.41 [0, 33.90] 5%
Mean Correction None Box-Pierce on squared resi... 0.68 [0, 5.99] 5%
Correction for Trading Day ... 2 Regressor(s) DESCRIPTION OF RESIDU...
Trad1 t-value 9.03 [-1.972, 1.972] 5% Normality 0.26 [0, 5.99] 5%
Trad2 t-value -9.03 (derived) [-1.972, 1.9... Skewness -0.00 [-0.42, 0.42] 5%
Leap-year t-value 0.99 [-1.972, 1.972] 5% Kurtosis 2.78 [2.15, 3.85] 5%
Correction for Easter Effect None OUTLIERS
Correction for Outliers Autom.:AO,LS,TC; 5 Outli... Percentage of outliers 3.38% [0%, 5.0%] ad-hoc
Critical t-value 3.245
TC Ene1993 t-value -5.48 [-3.245, 3.245] crit.val.
TC Jul1995 t-value -4.73 [-3.245, 3.245] crit.val.
TC Ene1992 t-value 4.60 [-3.245, 3.245] crit.val.
AO Dic1994 t-value 4.19 [-3.245, 3.245] crit.val.
AO Ago1990 t-value 3.62 [-3.245, 3.245] crit.val.
Corr. for Missing Obs. None
Corr. for Other Regr. Effects None
Specif. of the ARIMA model (0 1 1)(0 1 1) (fixed)
Non-seas. MA (lag 1) value -0.4103
Non-seas. MA (lag 1) t-value -4.77 [-1.972, 1.972] 5%
Seasonal MA (lag 12) value -0.6571
Seasonal MA (lag 12) t-value -7.77 [-1.972, 1.972] 5%
Method of Estimation Exact Maximum Likelihood
DECOMPOSITION
ARIMA Decomposition Exact
Seasonality Seasonal model used