Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 54

DISCLOSURES

THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE CURRENT OPINIONS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL AS MAY 4, 2016 ONLY, AND MAY CHANGE AS SUBSEQUENT
CONDITIONS VARY. ANY PROJECTIONS, MARKET OUTLOOKS OR ESTIMATES IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS AND ARE
BASED UPON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS. OTHER EVENTS WHICH WERE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT MAY OCCUR AND MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT RETURN OR
PERFORMANCE. ANY PROJECTIONS, OUTLOOKS OR ASSUMPTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE ACTUAL EVENTS WHICH WILL
OCCUR.

THIS PRESENTATION MAY CONTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF
1995, AS AMENDED. BECAUSE SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, ACTUAL RESULTS MAY DIFFER MATERIALLY
FROM ANY EXPECTATIONS, PROJECTIONS OR PREDICTIONS MADE OR IMPLICATED IN SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. INVESTORS ARE
THEREFORE CAUTIONED NOT TO PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS.

IN CONSIDERING THE PRIOR PERFORMANCE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION, INVESTORS SHOULD BEAR IN MIND THAT PAST RESULTS
ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS, AND THERE CAN BE NO ASSURANCE THAT ANY FUND WILL ACHIEVE RESULTS COMPARABLE TO
THOSE OF ANY PRIOR OR EXISTING FUND.

THESE MATERIALS DO NOT PURPORT TO BE ALL-INCLUSIVE OR TO CONTAIN ALL THE INFORMATION THAT AN INVESTOR MAY DESIRE. THESE MATERIALS
ARE MERELY FOR DISCUSSION ONLY AND MAY NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION.

INVESTORS SHOULD NOT CONSTRUE THE CONTENTS OF THIS PRESENTATION OR ANY PRIOR OR SUBSEQUENT COMMUNICATION FROM SOCIAL CAPITAL
OR ANY OF ITS REPRESENTATIVES OR AFFILIATES, AS LEGAL, TAX, OR INVESTMENT ADVICE.

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY WHICH MAY ONLY BE MADE AT THE TIME A QUALIFIED
OFFEREE RECEIVES A CONFIDENTIAL PRIVATE OFFERING MEMORANDUM OR CONFIDENTIAL EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM (EACH, AN OFFERING
MEMORANDUM) DESCRIBING THE OFFERING AND RELATED SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT AND IN THE CASE OF ANY INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
DESCRIPTIONS OR TERMS IN THIS PRESENTATION AND THE OFFERING MEMORANDUM, THE APPLICABLE OFFERING MEMORANDUM SHALL CONTROL. THIS
PRESENTATION IS QUALIFIED IN ITS ENTIRETY BY REFERENCE TO SUCH DOCUMENTATION, INCLUDING THE RISK FACTORS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF
INTEREST DISCLOSURES SET FORTH THEREIN. AN INVESTMENT IN A FUND MANAGED BY SOCIAL CAPITAL (COLLECTIVELY, THE FUNDS) IS SPECULATIVE
AND INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK.

WHILE ALL THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS BELIEVED TO BE ACCURATE, SOCIAL CAPITAL MAKES NO EXPRESS WARRANTY AS TO
THE COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY NOR CAN IT ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ERRORS APPEARING IN THE PRESENTATION. IN PARTICULAR, CERTAIN
FACTUAL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM PUBLISHED SOURCES PREPARED BY OTHER PARTIES AND SOCIAL CAPITAL HAS
NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED SUCH INFORMATION.

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 2


To build an ecosystem that advances
humanity by solving the worlds hardest
problems

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL 2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 3
We are technologists and entrepreneurs
who have helped build and scale many of
todays best companies

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL 2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 4
We are investors in many of the fastest-
growing private technology companies in
the world

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL 2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 5
Theres a new sheriff in town
Percentage High Growth Companies in Portfolio

68%
65%
62% 62% 61%
58%
54%
46% 46%

Social C apital A ndreessen A ccel Partners Founders Fund Benchmark Sequoia C apital G reylock Y C ombinator Kleiner Perkins
Horowitz C aufield & Byers

SOURCE: MATTERMARK AS OF APRIL 19, 2016; 2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 6
SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
31% per annum on $1.3B

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL 2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 7
SO WHATS THE BIG IDEA?

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 8


Thereis a multi-trillion dollar monopoly
hiding in plain sight

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 9


10x in 10y

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 10


2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 11
Price Per Share

$0
$1 00
$2 00
$3 00
$4 00
$5 00
$6 00
$7 00
$8 00

Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-1 0
N ov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-1 1
N ov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-1 2
N ov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-1 3
2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. N ov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-1 4
N ov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-1 5
N ov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
12
AMZN will be a $3T company by 2025

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 13


24% IRR

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 14


Retailwill be a $1T business by 2025
AWS will be a $1.5T business by 2025

Bets and cash will be worth $0.5T by 2025

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 15


SHOW YOUR WORK!

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 16


Retail will be a $1T business by 2025

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 17


Amazon Customer Growth (M)
788

304

55

2005 2015 2025

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 18


Prime Member Growth (M)

286

46
% CAGR
36
2

2005 2015 2025

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 19


Global Retail Units (B)

30

6
CAGR
31%
0.4

2005 2015 2025

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 20


Retail will be a $1T business by 2025
($B)
2025 Units (B) 30
G MV / Unit $34
2025 G MV $1,022

EBIT % 5%
EBIT $51

C O ST FY16 Multiple 18x


Retail Value $924
2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 21
AWS will be a $1.5T business by 2025

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 22


Thebest spend a large percentage of
their revenues on infrastructure
29%

19%
16%

TW TR C RM FB

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 23


Over
time the rest will find it economically
unfeasible to build their own infrastructure

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 24


Costs on AWS are best in class at much
smaller scale

16% 16%

SC Portfolio Compa ny FB

SEE ENDNOTES FOR IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL DETAIL 2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 25
100%
of Social Capital portfolio
companies are running on AWS

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 26


AWSwill have a big business in existing
workloads

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 27


and the majority of new workloads

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 28


because AWS expands the market

AWS
1,000,000
Customers
Already

Oracle
420,000
Terminal
Customers
IBM
5,000
Terminal
Customers

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 29


AWS is a tax on the internet

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 30


Your margin is my opportunity

~$3T

~$2T

2015 G lobal IT Spend 2025 G lobal IT Spend


2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 31
Infrastructure
spend comes in two types:
Test + Dev and Production

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 32


Test+ Dev workloads will rapidly shift to
the cloud in the next 10 years

($B)
~$750bn
2025 Test + Dev IT Spend $300
Public C loud Market Share 70%
A W S Market Share 60%
~$300bn A W S Test + Dev Revenue $126

EBIT % 30%
2015 Test + Dev IT Spend 2025 Test + Dev IT Spend EBIT $38

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 33


Production
workloads will move slower
than Test + Dev but still move rapidly

($B)
~$2,250bn
2025 Production IT Spend $1,700
~$1,700bn Public C loud Market Share 30%
A W S Market Share 60%
A W S Production Revenue $306

EBIT Margin % 30%


2015 Production IT Spend 2025 Production IT Spend EBIT $92

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 34


AWS will be a $1.5T business by 2025
($B)
Test + Dev $126
Production 306
A W S Revenue $432
EBIT Margin % 30%
EBIT $130
IN TC / O RC L/ IBM FY16 Multiple 12x
A W S Value $1,555
2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 35
Bets and cash will be worth $0.5T by 2025

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 36


5% Margins?
$180 6.0%
$168

$160
5.2%
5.0% 5.0%
$140 4.8% 4.8% $137
4.5% 4.5%
4.3%
$120 $113 4.0%

$100 3.4%
$90
3.0%
$80
$68

$60 2.1% 2.0%


$45
1.6%
$40 $33 1.4%
1.2%
$24 1.0%
$19 0.8%
$20 $12 $15
$7 $9

$0 0.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
G MV ($B) Reported EBIT Ma rg in

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 37


AMZNhas invested $18B over the past
10 years to

$3.9

2005 2015: $18B $5.0


$3.7
$1.9
$2.8
$1.8
$0.3
$0.1 $0.1 $0.7
$0.4 $0.7 $2.7
$0.1
$0.1 $1.9
$1.6 $1.4 $1.3 $1.3
$0.0 $0.2 $1.1 $1.1
$0.6 $0.8
$0.5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reported Retail EBIT ($B) A W S EBIT ($B) Investment ($B)
2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 38
turn every major cost into a source of
revenue
2005 Income Statement 2015 Business Lines
(in millions, except per share data) Y ear Ended December 3 1 , % of
2005 Revenue
N et Sales $ 8,490
Product C osts 6,212 73%
Shipping C osts 239 3%
G ross Profit $ 2,039

O perating Expenses:
Fulfillment $ 522 6%
Technology & C ontent 406 5%
Marketing 192 2%
Payment Processing 207 2%
G eneral & A dministrative 146 2%
Income from O perations $ 566 7%

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 39


a significant source of revenue & value
($B) 2015 Revenue 2015 Value
$3 $6
$0.5 $1
$1.5 $3
$0.3 $3
$5 $25
$8 $150
$4 $50
$0.1 $1
Total $239
2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 40
$239Bof value created in 10 years from
$18B invested

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 41


33% compounding

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 42


3.1% reported
5% EBIT margin
1.9% re-invested

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 43


So what about 2015 2025?

2015 2025: $96B $19.0

$15.8

$13.2

$11.0
$9.2
$7.7 $32.1
$6.4 $26.8
$5.3 $22.4
$4.5 $18.7
$3.7 $15.6
$10.8 $13.0
$3.9 $7.6 $9.1
$6.3
$2.7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Reported Retail EBIT ($B) Investment ($B)
2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 44
$96B invested @ 15% vs 33% historically

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 45


2025 enterprise value created = $163B

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 46


And the surplus cash from 2015 2025?
$362B $90

$59

$38

$25
$22
$19
$16 $16
$13
$9 $10 $11
$6 $8 $7
$4 $5 $4
$0 $0

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Retail FCF ($B) A W S FC F ($B)

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 47


($B) 2015 2025

Retail $200 $924

AWS 150 1,555

Investments 0 163

N et C ash on BS 8 369
Total $358 $3,012

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 48


2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 49
2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 50
Its still Day 1

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 51


2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 52
ENDNOTES
SLIDE 4:

LOGOS PRESENTED REPRESENT THE PAST EMPLOYERS OF SELECT PAST AND PRESENT EMPLOYEES, ENTREPRENEURS IN RESIDENCE AND BOARD
PARTNERS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL.

SLIDE 5:

LOGOS PRESENTED REPRESENT A REPRESENTATIVE SET OF SOCIAL CAPITALS FIFTEEN LARGEST INVESTMENTS SINCE SOCIALCAPITALS INCEPTION IN
2011 AS WELL AS SIX REPRESENTATIVE EXITED COMPANIES FROM THE SEED PORTFOLIOS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL AND EMBARCADERO VENTURES, A FUND
ESTABLISHED AND MANAGED BY CHAMATH PALIHAPITIYAS PRIOR TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SOCIAL CAPITAL

SLIDE 6:

HIGH GROWTH IS A MATTERMARK, INC. PROPRIETARY METRIC THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT CHANGE OVER TIME OF FUNDING, EMPLOYEE COUNT, SOCIAL
MEDIA, WEB & APP TRAFFIC.

COMPARABLE FUNDS PRESENTED ARE SILICON VALLEY-BASED FUNDS WITH GREATER THAN $250M ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT THAT HAVE BEEN
ACTIVELY INVESTING SINCE 2011 OR EARLIER, THE YEAR OF SOCIAL CAPITALS INCEPTION.

SLIDE 7:

1. 31% ANNUALIZED RETURN

THE ANNUALIZED RETURN PRESENTED REPRESENTS THE COMBINED ANNUALIZED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN FROM THE INCEPTION OF EACH OF THE
SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.P., THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP II, L.P., THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP III, L.P. AND THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL
PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES FUND, L.P., THROUGH 3/31/2016 ON INVESTED CAPITAL OF EACH SUCH FUND BASED ON ALL CONTRIBUTIONS, INCLUDING
FOR MANAGEMENT FEES AND OTHER FEES AND EXPENSES PAYABLE FROM EACH OF THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.P., THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL
PARTNERSHIP II, L.P., THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP III, L.P. AND THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES FUND, L.P., RESPECTIVELY,
DISTRIBUTIONS (INCLUDING TAX DISTRIBUTIONS), AND NET UNREALIZED VALUE OF EACH SUCH FUND AS OF 3/31/2016, WHICH IS NET OF EACH GENERAL
PARTNER'S CARRIED INTEREST (IF ANY). THE COMBINED NET IRR FOR THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.P.'S, THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP II,
L.P.'S, THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP III, L.P.'S AND THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES FUND, L.P.'S IS PRESENTED FROM INCEPTION
TO 3/31/2016, AS IF ALL INVESTORS COMMITTED CAPITAL AS OF THE FIRST CLOSING OF EACH OF THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.P., THE SOCIAL
+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP II, L.P., THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP III, L.P. AND THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES FUND, L.P. AN
INDIVIDUAL LIMITED PARTNER'S NET IRR MAY VARY FROM THE REPORTED NET IRR BASED UPON THE SPECIFIC TERMS OF THE CAPITAL TRANSACTIONS
RELATING TO SUCH LIMITED PARTNER.

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 53


ENDNOTES
SLIDE 7:

2. ON $1.3B

THE ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT PRESENTED REPRESNET THE COMBINED NET ASSET VALUE OF EACH OF THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.P., THE
SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP II, L.P., THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP III, L.P. AND THE SOCIAL+CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES FUND, L.P.,
THROUGH 3/31/2016. THE VALUE OF EACH ASSET IS BASED ON SUCH ASSETS FAIR VALUE, AS DEFINED UNDER ACCOUNTING STANDARDS CODIFICATION
TOPIC 820, AS DETERMINED PURSUANT TO THE SOCIAL CAPITAL SECURITIES VALUATION POLICY. THE SOCIAL CAPITAL SECURITIES VALUATION POLICY, IN
ACCORDANCE WITH AUTHORITATIVE GUIDANCE ON FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS AND DISCLOSURES UNDER GENNERALLY ACCEPTED ACCOUNTING
PRINCIPLES, DISCLOSES AND RECOGNIZES THE FAIR VALUE OF ASSETS AND LIABILITIES BASED ON A VARIETY OF FACTORS AND UTILIZES INPUTS AND
VALUATION TECHNIQUES DESIGNED TO ASCERTAIN FAIR VALUE, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, THE MARKET COMPARABLES APPROACH, OPTION
PRICING MODELS, PROBABILITY WEIGHTED EXPECTED RETURN ANALYSES, THE INCOME APPROACH AND COMMON STOCK EQUIVALENT METHODOLOGIES.
WHILE SOCIAL CAPITAL BELIEVES ITS VALUATION METHODS ARE APPROPRIATE AND CONSISTENT WITH THOSE USED BY OTHER MARKET PARTICIPANTS,
THE USE OF DIFFERENT METHODOLOGIES OR ASSUMPTIONS TO DETERMINE THE FAIR VALUE OF CERTAIN ASSETS COULD RESULT IN MATERIALLY
DIFFERENT ESTIMATES OF FAIR VALUE. AS SUCH, THE FINAL, REALIZED, INTERNAL RATES OF RETURN FOR SC 1 AND SC 2 AND THE FINAL REALIZED VALUE
OF SC1 AND SC2 ASSETS MAY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE VALUES REFLECTED ON THE SLIDES TITLED PRIVATE FUNDS: SC 1 OVERVIEW AND
PRIVATE FUNDS: SC 2 OVERVIEW.

SLIDE 25:

SC PORTFOLIO COMPANY IS AN ILLUSTRATIVE COMPANY FROM SOCIAL CAPITALS PORTFOLIO THAT UTILIZES AMAZON WEB SERVICES AND WAS CHOSEN
FOR ITS COMPARABLE USAGE CHARACTERISTICS TO TWITTER, FACEBOOK AND SALESFORCE.

2016 Social Capital. All rights reserved. 54