Dividend Policy of Indian Organizations

Advanced corporate Finance
Ajay Simha
Anupam Chaplot
Siva Harsha Karra
Contents
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................................3
TABLES AND FINDINGS................................................................................................................................4
REGRESSION................................................................................................................................................6
MODELS USED.............................................................................................................................................7
LINTNER MODEL......................................................................................................................................7
Model for dividend pay out ratio.............................................................................................................7
Synopsis of regression coefficients for lintner’s model...........................................................................8
APPENDIX....................................................................................................................................................9
Asset financing........................................................................................................................................9
Bank.......................................................................................................................................................12
Communication.....................................................................................................................................14
Construction..........................................................................................................................................18
Electricity...............................................................................................................................................20
food beverages......................................................................................................................................23
health services.......................................................................................................................................26
Information technology.........................................................................................................................29
metal product........................................................................................................................................32
Mining...................................................................................................................................................35
Textile....................................................................................................................................................38
Wholesale retail.....................................................................................................................................40
chemical................................................................................................................................................42
Hotel......................................................................................................................................................44
Investment services...............................................................................................................................47
Machinery..............................................................................................................................................50
Non-metallic mineral products..............................................................................................................53
Recreational services.............................................................................................................................56
Transport equipment.............................................................................................................................59
Transport services.................................................................................................................................61
IT industry (company wise analysis)......................................................................................................63
INTRODUCTION
The present study examines the dividend behavior of Indian corporate firms over the period 2000 - 2009 and
attempts to explain the observed behavior.
For this purpose data of 20 different industries has been collected over the period of 10 years to see the variation in
the trend across industry. Given below are the details of the industries and number of companies from each industry
that has been observed for the study for last 10 years. A total of 18,657 companies have been studied.
Set Description no. of companies

Asset financing services 583
Banking services 201
Communication services 187
Construction 1431
Electricity 354
Food & beverages 1763
Health services 119
Information technology 961
Metals & metal products 1306
Mining 178
Textiles 1501
Wholesale & retail trading 2046
Chemicals 2336
Hotels & tourism 354
Investment services 2067
Machinery 1464
Non-metallic mineral products 614
Recreational services 274 TABLES AND
Transport equipment 548 FINDINGS
Transport services 370
Total
percentage div paid / PAT 18657

Industry 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Asset financing 63.6% 72.7% 76.5% 41.0% 217.5% 44.1% 42.6% 29.2% 31.5% 30.5%
Banking Services 19.9% 26.1% 19.3% 17.3% 17.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.1% 18.9% 18.6%
Communication services 18.4% 62.1% 42.3% 79.9% 11.4% 15.9% 21.2% 12.5% 16.5% 8.7%
Construction 47.0% 49.3% 44.7% 51.1% 42.2% 33.5% 16.8% 17.1% 17.5% 14.3%
Electricity 20.6% 30.5% 26.3% 33.0% 33.0% 57.0% 41.7% 37.1% 41.5% 57.7%
food beverages 70.5% 60.1% 51.2% 68.4% 53.6% 38.1% 39.4% 36.7% 38.9% 37.6%
health services -54.8% -131.7% -1857.0% 100.3% -158.3% 51.4% 82.5% 36.4% 66.2% 48.9%
information tech. 12.6% 11.4% 16.0% 27.5% 46.7% 31.6% 44.9% 24.9% 31.1% 23.9%
metal product -30.1% -39.0% -17.5% 124.0% 13.8% 17.2% 18.1% 15.5% 16.1% 22.5%
Mining 47.1% 59.6% 37.6% 43.3% 41.3% 45.0% 41.7% 40.5% 43.1% 41.3%
-
Textile -10.9% -8.7% -9.2% -13.3% 37.1% 2888.9% 23.6% 19.6% 20.9% 14.3%
Wholesale retail 86.3% -22.5% -32.9% 1469.5% 42.7% 37.9% 26.0% 28.0% 35.4% 56.3%
Chemicals 49.9% 45.1% 51.9% 52.4% 40.9% 35.7% 34.3% 31.9% 22.8% 28.7%
Hotels & tourism 65.8% 93.3% -69.5% 154.1% 145.2% 53.6% 33.3% 29.7% 28.6% 31.0%
Investment services 29.9% -92.4% 34.0% 53.2% 24.9% 17.5% 20.1% 21.2% 15.1% 24.9%
Machinery 134.5% 205.6% 323.4% 703.6% 99.7% 42.3% 25.6% 21.8% 23.4% 35.2%
Non-metallic mineral
products -53.9% -519.8% -238.9% 79.6% 43.4% 33.1% 24.3% 22.3% 18.2% 21.3%
-
14329.8 -
Recreational services 11.1% 37.6% % 172.4% 164.9% 109.5% 35.2% -47.3% -87.3% -63.1%
Transport equipment 55.5% -64.6% 76.0% 48.6% 39.7% 31.3% 29.3% 28.0% 26.3% 34.7%
114.8
Transport services 579.7% 83.0% 88.1% 58.6% 48.1% 22.3% 32.1% % 49.9% -17.5%
Below table give the details of the no of companies who gave dividend 0 to 10 times in last 10 years.
Industry 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 total
Asset financing 333 29 23 6 13 9 10 8 3 8 20 462
Communication 149 3 8 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 3 175
Bank 70 14 11 5 11 14 8 10 3 8 31 185
Construction 790 44 37 29 28 18 24 14 9 9 27 1029
Electricity 175 10 12 9 10 6 10 1 2 1 10 246
food beverages 1036 100 68 37 32 38 30 22 14 28 47 1452
health services 82 4 6 3 3 0 0 2 1 1 2 104
information tech. 618 87 54 28 20 13 24 13 9 18 22 906
metal product 790 59 41 39 28 31 22 16 18 21 33 1098
Mining 95 8 6 3 4 5 4 4 3 5 11 148
Textile 929 55 51 40 35 20 26 17 25 21 34 1253
Wholesale retail 1426 89 69 37 47 32 30 29 15 14 31 1819
Below table give the information of the number of companies in each sector who have gave dividend in each year.
Industry 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Asset financing 70 59 52 55 61 68 65 68 65 54
Communication 7 5 6 10 9 11 15 14 15 11
Bank 62 58 67 73 80 66 74 72 71 66
Construction 72 71 69 79 91 115 137 156 159 123
Electricity 24 21 22 26 34 38 39 42 43 34
food beverages 225 180 154 158 169 193 195 196 187 176
health services 5 4 8 12 11 10 10 8 11 9
information tech. 123 97 85 96 100 120 130 134 122 106
metal product 124 109 101 117 135 152 168 187 201 150
Mining 21 23 22 29 33 38 37 36 40 34
Textile 149 136 136 154 161 173 193 196 143 93
Wholesale retail 146 132 134 169 188 190 177 190 167 140
Below table gives information about the percentage of companies who have paid dividend in each year.
Industry 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Average
Asset financing 15% 13% 11% 12% 13% 15% 14% 15% 14% 12% 13%
Communication 4% 3% 3% 6% 5% 6% 9% 8% 9% 6% 6%
Bank 34% 31% 36% 39% 43% 36% 40% 39% 38% 36% 37%
Construction 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 11% 13% 15% 15% 12% 10%
electricity 10% 9% 9% 11% 14% 15% 16% 17% 17% 14% 13%
food beverages 15% 12% 11% 11% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 13%
health services 5% 4% 8% 12% 11% 10% 10% 8% 11% 9% 8%
information tech. 14% 11% 9% 11% 11% 13% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12%
metal product 11% 10% 9% 11% 12% 14% 15% 17% 18% 14% 13%
Mining 14% 16% 15% 20% 22% 26% 25% 24% 27% 23% 21%
Textile 12% 11% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 11% 7% 12%
Wholesale retail 8% 7% 7% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 9%
Below table contain the aggregate profit of the industry and the cumulative growth rate of the industry in term of profit. CAGR is not been
calculated for few of the industries because of negative PAT.
PAT(in crores)
Industry 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 CAGR
Asset financing 1032.92 1013.84 1174.37 2546.44 586.69 3560.91 4024.91 6115.24 8720.34 9572.57 24.94%
17925.2 31921.6 43197.7 53611.7
Banking Services 8227.55 7459.26 9019.38 2 24011.16 21454.85 25207.92 4 6 8 20.61%
Communication 15755.4 14763.7 10647.9
services 1729.7 3073.34 7139.71 1080.69 7008.94 11849.18 9575.85 1 6 1 19.93%
11532.5 19889.0 15421.3
Construction 745.41 703.43 764.05 881.35 1307.62 2487.15 5789.28 8 7 3 35.39%
16525.7 16836.6 11828.4
Electricity 6565.46 5256.17 6083.58 6748.73 9722.81 7585.08 13277.92 7 8 8 6.06%
food beverages 1281.25 1448.53 1854.26 1572.04 2557.9 4984.91 6000.62 7187.16 7689.76 9321.02 21.95%
health services -30.27 -16.89 -1.35 26.74 -19.63 67.88 57.99 143.36 109.4 159.75 29.09%
19806.2 22823.5 22918.5
information tech. 2956.23 4626.16 3717.5 4085.69 5921.37 10178.31 16337.9 5 7 7 22.73%
32195.9 23558.0
metal product -2654.49 -2528.32 -4817.21 1009.04 9706.32 21415.64 19257.74 8 36611 3 56.84%
13991.3 29467.4 34182.8 31768.6
Mining 4535.28 4301.15 8575.01 2 15007.25 21222.95 27800.84 5 4 1 21.49%
Textile -3532.38 -3919.81 -3621.06 -3267.82 1550.74 -22.34 3375.6 4394.69 3481.8 4717.97 20.37%
Wholesale retail 302.64 -973.95 -1060.74 23.28 1156.67 1567.34 2423.81 2893.4 2334.52 1264.75 15.37%
10593.9 12795.8 12275.8 19419.8 46252.9 53499.8 43399.3
Chemicals 6 1 8 5 26314.19 30420.54 31950.03 4 9 3 15.14%
Hotels & tourism 271.95 189.02 -189.49 89.25 103.3 422.77 1156.73 1791.43 2123.15 1211.79 16.12%
10497.2
Investment services 1991.69 -546.87 1791.78 1773.11 4626.26 5605.94 7016.5 8983.28 8 6716.45 12.93%
15222.2 16035.6 11227.8
Machinery 740.96 455.37 277.07 142.51 1342.63 4312.57 10135.74 2 2 2 31.24%
products -625.53 -65.13 -146.77 474.6 1443.71 2383.99 5783.18 9964.85 10965 9543.99 35.00%
Recreational services 385.25 159.65 -0.47 53.25 53.32 156.72 -956.52 -523.12 -407.91 -415.83 #NUM!
13218.0 13969.4
Transport equipment 1051.85 -687.16 1357.29 2878.14 4834.97 7787.76 9310.45 5 4 8907.37 23.82%
Transport services 49.08 427.31 464.21 959.22 2561.32 5126.24 3851.5 1182.1 3222.6 -7338.11 #NUM!
REGRESSION
We have done regression between PAT, previous year dividend (independent variable) and dividend this year
(dependent variable) and tried to find out if the dividend depends on this two variable for which industries. Since
the regression is done on the aggregate values we have moved one step further and did company wise analysis for
IT industry taking around 20 companies and try to find out if the result matches the value that we have got for the
industry aggregate. The result for the two were quiet similar. Hence we can say that the aggregate of the industry
represent the behavior of individual companies in that industry to a great level.
Below are the results that we have got for regression of various industries and at the bottom is the analysis that
has been done for just of the IT industry taking 20 companies.
MODELS USED
LINTNER MODEL
Lintner (1956) developed a model to study the determinants of the dividend behavior of
American corporations assuming that the dividend payout is a function of net current
earnings after tax (PAT) and dividend paid during the previous year i.e. lagged dividend
(Div t-1). Companies decide to payout a fixed proportion of their net profits as dividend to
common stockholders; but in view of their well known preference for stable dividends
may try to achieve the target level only by a fraction of the amount indicated by the target
payout ratio whenever profit changes. The above theoretical formulation of Lintner has
been used as an estimating equation for corporate dividend in the present study, which is
as follows
Y=α + β1X1+ β2X2

Y- Dependent variabla(dividend for the present year)
X1- independent variable PAT (current year)
X2- independent variable Dividend previous year
Α- constant
Model for dividend pay out ratio
Y=α + β1X1+ β2X2 +β1X3+ β2X4+ β1X5
The variables that have been identified can be stated as follows:
Y= dividend payout ratio

X1=earnings before interest and taxes /total assets
X2= cash from operations (Rs. crore)
X3=corporate tax /profit before tax
X4=annual sales growth
X5= Market to book value ratio
Synopsis of regression coefficients for lintner’s model

Sn R square
o Industry Value t significance
1 Asset financing 0.916 pat 2.357 0.056
div_lastyear 1.449 0.198
2 Communication -0.146 pat 0.915 0.395
div_lastyear -0.422 0.688
3 construction 0.983 pat 14.072 0
4 Electricity 0.956 pat 1.762 0.128
5 Food& beverages 0.991 pat
div_lastyear
6 health services 0.906 pat -0.157 0.881
7 IT 0.842 pat 4.088 0.006
8 Metal product 0.957 pat 5.649 0.001
9 mining 0.99 pat 9.457 0
10 textile 0.833 pat 2.191 0.071
11 wholesale retail 0.911 pat 3.2 0.019
12 chemical 0.7 pat 1.941 0.1
13 hotel 0.988 pat 15.464 0
14 Investment services 0.759 pat 2.009 0.091
15 Machinery 0.98 pat 3.851 0.008
16 Non mettalic mineral products 0.987 pat 9.897 0
17 recreational services 0.708 pat -2.482 0.048
18 transport equipment 0.982 pat 7.581 0
19 Transport services 0.724 pat 1.41 0.208
APPENDIX
Asset financing
Model Summaryb
Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Model R R Square Square Estimate
1 .968a .937 .916 223.249
a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat
b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients 95% Confidence Interval fo
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bo
1 (Constant) 437.966 226.566 1.933 .101 -116.421 99
pat .142 .060 .611 2.357 .056 -.005
div_last_year .440 .303 .376 1.449 .198 -.303
a. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Bank
Model Summaryb
Adjusted R Std. Error of

Model R R Square Square the Estimate
1 .998a .995 .994 219.971
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized Standardized 95% Confidence Interval

Coefficients Coefficients for B
Lower Upper
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Bound Bound
1 (Constant) 137.163 159.274 .861 .422 -252.567 526.893
Pat .132 .019 .720 6.909 .000 .085 .179
div_last_yea
.351 .128 .285 2.733 .034 .037 .665
r

Communication
Model Summaryb

1 .375a .141 -.146 813.097
ANOVAb
Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 649327.579 2 324663.789 .491 .635a
Residual 3966763.852 6 661127.309
Total 4616091.431 8
Coefficientsa

Lower
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Bound Upper Bound
1 (Constant) 1517.806 799.727 1.898 .106 -439.056 3474.667
Pat .053 .058 .347 .915 .395 -.089 .196
div_last_yea
-.141 .334 -.160 -.422 .688 -.957 .676
r

Construction
Model Summaryb

1 .993a .987 .983 143.038
Coefficientsa

Lower Upper
1 (Constant) 337.918 69.158 4.886 .003 168.695 507.141
Pat .174 .012 1.168 14.072 .000 .144 .204
div_last_yea
-.226 .085 -.219 -2.645 .038 -.435 -.017
r

Electricity
Model Summaryb

1 .983a .967 .956 459.905
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients 95% Confidence Interval for B
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound
1 (Constant) 140.008 423.695 .330 .752 -896.737 1176.753
Pat .122 .069 .246 1.762 .128 -.047 .292
div_last_year .780 .142 .766 5.491 .002 .432 1.127

food beverages
Model Summaryb

1 .997a .993 .991 90.501
ANOVAb
Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 7357849.591 2 3678924.795 449.170 .000a
Residual 49142.973 6 8190.496
Total 7406992.564 8

health services
Model Summaryb

1 .964a .929 .906 6.354
Coefficientsa
Standardized
1 (Constant) 1.385 7.774 .178 .864 -17.636 20.406
Pat -.013 .085 -.043 -.157 .881 -.220 .194
div_last_year 1.170 .322 1.004 3.633 .011 .382 1.959

Information technology
Model Summaryb

1 .939a .882 .842 1059.615
Coefficientsa
Standardize
Unstandardized d 95% Confidence
Coefficients Coefficients Interval for B
Lower Upper
1 (Constant) -467.227 722.492 -.647 .542 -2235.102 1300.648
pat .526 .129 1.621 4.088 .006 .211 .840
div_last_year -.743 .381 -.774 -1.950 .099 -1.675 .189

metal product
Model Summaryb

1 .984a .967 .957 422.825
Coefficientsa
Standardized
1 (Constant) 757.529 242.142 3.128 .020 165.029 1350.028
Pat .091 .016 .678 5.649 .001 .052 .131
div_last_year .367 .124 .357 2.972 .025 .065 .670

Mining
Model Summaryb

1 .996a .992 .990 451.319
Coefficientsa
Standardized
1 (Constant) 228.539 353.992 .646 .542 -637.648 1094.726
pat .447 .047 1.089 9.457 .000 .331 .563
div_last_year -.095 .111 -.098 -.852 .427 -.366 .177

Textile
Model Summaryb

1 .935a .875 .833 78.620
Coefficientsa
Standardized
1 (Constant) 432.247 162.871 2.654 .038 33.716 830.778
pat .038 .017 .699 2.191 .071 -.004 .080
div_last_year .245 .304 .257 .807 .451 -.498 .988

Wholesale retail
Model Summaryb

1 .966a .933 .911 64.748

Coefficientsa
Standardized
1 (Constant) 233.592 65.717 3.555 .012 72.789 394.396
pat .080 .025 .538 3.200 .019 .019 .141
div_last_ye
.465 .160 .487 2.899 .027 .072 .857
ar

chemical
Model Summaryb

1 .881a .775 .700 1556.716

Coefficientsa
Standardized
1 (Constant) 6003.833 2128.454 2.821 .030 795.693 11211.972
pat .213 .110 1.104 1.941 .100 -.056 .483
div_last_year -.215 .505 -.242 -.425 .686 -1.451 1.021

Hotel
Model Summaryb

1 .995a .991 .988 19.920

Coefficientsa
Standardized
1 (Constant) 141.438 13.281 10.650 .000 108.941 173.935
pat .221 .014 1.020 15.464 .000 .186 .256
div_last_year -.031 .065 -.031 -.469 .655 -.190 .129

Investment services
Model Summary
Adjusted R
Model R R Square Square
1 .905a .819
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model B Std. Error
1 (Constant) 533.344
pat .110
div_last_year .089

Machinery
Model Summary
Adjusted R
1 .993a .985
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model B Std. Error
pat .078
div_last_year .688

products
Model Summary
Adjusted R
1 .995a .990
Model B Std. Error
pat .217
div_last_year -.314

Recreational services
Model Summary
Adjusted R
1 .884a .781
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model B Std. Error
1 (Constant) 97.527
pat -.196
div_last_year .298

Transport equipment
Model Summary
Adjusted R
1 .993a .987
Model B Std. Error
pat .186
div_last_year .172

Transport services
Model Summaryb

1 .891a .793 .724 239.269

Coefficientsa
Standardized 95% Confidence

Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients Interval for B
Lower Upper
1 (Constant) -
239.513 181.578 1.319 .235 683.818
204.793
pat .034 .024 .266 1.410 .208 -.025 .093
div_last_year .816 .171 .900 4.766 .003 .397 1.235

IT industry (company wise analysis)
Model Summaryb

1 .921a .847 .844 159.730
a. Predictors: (Constant), Previous_DIvidend, PAT
b. Dependent Variable: Current_Dividend

Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 1.710 19.030 .090 .929
PAT 4.031 .324 1.070 12.428 .000
Previous_DIvidend -.239 .118 -.175 -2.030 .045
a. Dependent Variable: Current_Dividend

Residuals Statisticsa
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N
Predicted Value -82.70 1731.18 209.84 372.185 93
Residual -467.260 525.909 .000 157.985 93
Std. Predicted Value -.786 4.088 .000 1.000 93
Std. Residual -2.925 3.292 .000 .989 93
a. Dependent Variable: Current_Dividend

Dividend Policy of Indian Organizations

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Advanced corporate Finance

Set Description no. of companies

Y=α + β1X1+ β2X2

Model for dividend pay out ratio

Y=α + β1X1+ β2X2 +β1X3+ β2X4+ β1X5

The variables that have been identified can be stated as follows:

Y= dividend payout ratio

Synopsis of regression coefficients for lintner’s model

Adjusted R Std. Error of the

1 .968a .937 .916 223.249

a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat

b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bo

1 (Constant) 437.966 226.566 1.933 .101 -116.421 99

pat .142 .060 .611 2.357 .056 -.005

div_last_year .440 .303 .376 1.449 .198 -.303

a. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Adjusted R Std. Error of

1 .998a .995 .994 219.971

a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat

b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Unstandardized Standardized 95% Confidence Interval

1 (Constant) 137.163 159.274 .861 .422 -252.567 526.893

Pat .132 .019 .720 6.909 .000 .085 .179

a. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Adjusted R Std. Error of

1 .375a .141 -.146 813.097

a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat

b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

1 Regression 649327.579 2 324663.789 .491 .635a

Residual 3966763.852 6 661127.309

a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat

b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Unstandardized Standardized 95% Confidence Interval

1 (Constant) 1517.806 799.727 1.898 .106 -439.056 3474.667

Pat .053 .058 .347 .915 .395 -.089 .196

a. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Adjusted R Std. Error of

1 .993a .987 .983 143.038

a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat

b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Unstandardized Standardized 95% Confidence Interval

1 (Constant) 337.918 69.158 4.886 .003 168.695 507.141

Pat .174 .012 1.168 14.072 .000 .144 .204

a. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Adjusted R Std. Error of

1 .983a .967 .956 459.905

a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat

b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound

1 (Constant) 140.008 423.695 .330 .752 -896.737 1176.753

Pat .122 .069 .246 1.762 .128 -.047 .292

div_last_year .780 .142 .766 5.491 .002 .432 1.127

a. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Adjusted R Std. Error of

1 .997a .993 .991 90.501

a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat

b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

1 Regression 7357849.591 2 3678924.795 449.170 .000a

Residual 49142.973 6 8190.496

a. Predictors: (Constant), div_last_year, pat

b. Dependent Variable: div_this_year

Adjusted R Std. Error of