Daily DAX The Fed surprised -- but kept the overnight rate unchanged.

changed. The FOMC has said all along that it will leave the option
. of continued stimulus on the table, even when it was testing a new facility to remove stimulus from the economy.
Journal The market was clearly not expecting the statement to be so accommodative. Or perhaps foreboding?
11 Aug 2010 Range studies: Aggressive 146; conservative 110; H 6395/6405 L 6180/70 Calendar: UK Q2 infl rpt; US trade balance

Tuesday, 10 August 2010

DAX 30min study
A range of 146 is optimistic, given current market conditions.
The conservative estimate of 110 is also a bit optimistic for
tomorrow's calendar. Nothing heavy on earnings tomorrow.
Maybe one or two after the US session close. There is nothing
special about the projections. Very little confluence in the
Aggressive range H
current development. DAX almost looks "crowded" between
6360 and 6260.

High Extreme: 6429 (rng high projection) 3d profile Conservative range H

High primary: 6393 (rng high projection)
Today's High: 6395/6405 (50% ext)
Today's Low: 6180/70 (HVN, lwr dev't)
Gap
Low primary: 6173 (rng low projection)
HVN
Low Extreme: 6140.2 (rng low projection)
HVN

My confidence in this range projection is low. This week has

been difficult, although I believe I've settled on the idea that a
short is possible below 6250, targeting 6210. And possibly a HVN
short on a failure at 6400, targeting 6360. 7POC 3POC

Conservative range L

Aggressive range L

Wednesday's focus: Couple of trade ideas -- some fairly prominent price pivots have built up over the past two weeks. The lower
pivot, 6250, is my preferred choice for a trade level. The upper pivot is not as interesting, given the past four days of price action. I
prefer a fade at the upper limit of the current development, targeting the upper end of "value". I won't hang around to see if the
trade works. If it isn't going my way within the first ten to fifteen minutes, I'll get out or stop out, whichever comes first.

Trade ideas:
Short -- On a break below 6250, wait for a pullback and short a failure below. Target 6210.
Short -- On a failure below 6400, target 6370 or 60, depending on the price action.
Long -- On a push above 6325, possible long to fill the gap, targeting 6350. This idea needs confirmation during the trading day.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
 Range Studies for DAX 0910 Monday, 09 August 2010
Previous day range 104.0 Comments:
Previous day pattern NR 0440 GMT: Confidence in range projections is low and there is very little confluence.
Number of occurrences 97 The volume profile for the last three to ten days is crowded, and a split distribution has
formed with low volume in the 6320/30 area. High volume is above today's close, but
(last 200 days)
very near the last traded price. Again. This is a pattern that I am not comfortable with.
Avg range after WS 140.4% It's almost as if I'm being tricked into having a bias.
> 146.0 <
Prob of expansion → 67.0% Prob of contraction → 18.6% Prob of duplication → 14.4%
Projected expansion 172.5 Projected contraction 76.0 Projected duplication 103.0
( 165.8% ) ( 72.9% ) ( 98.9% )
Daily range studies Volume studies Time, price and event
3 days 118.7 Value area high 6315.5 Aggressive range est. 146.0
10 days 110.6 Point of control 6294.0 Conservative range est. 110.0
20 days 115.7 Value area low 6270.5 Aggressive range H 6429.0
50 days 122.4 Opening range 11.5 Conservative range H 6393.0
10 day max range 157.5 Initial balance 24.0 Today's H range est. 6395.0
10 day min range 47.5 R2 high vol node 6344.0 0.70 Today's L range est. 6170.0
3/10 1.07 R1 high vol node 6335.0 0.80 Conservative range L 6173.0
10 day true high 6391.5 Pvt high vol node 6350.5 1.00 Aggressive range L 6137.0
5 day true high 6391.5 S1 high vol node 6295.0 1.20 3 day range pivot 6350.0
Yesterday's high 6342.0 S2 high vol node 6281.0 0.85 02 Sep 08 high 6566.0
Yesterday's low 6250.5 3D VAH 6340.0 06 August high 6391.0
5 day true low 6247.5 3D VPOC 6281.0 06 Aug swing low 6250.0
10 day true low 6063.0 3D VAL 6253.0 30 July swing low 6063.0
Yesterday's settlement 6283.0 3 day vol avg 105.3 UK Q2 inflation report M/L
Previous settlement 6354.5 10 day vol avg 114.9 US trade balance M/L
10 day range position 0.67 20 day vol avg 125.8

Calendar GMT Area Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

Wednesday 0030 AU Westpac consumer confidence Aug Ccy Med 11.1 AUD pairs
0830 UK Claimant jobless claims C/E High 15K 20.8K Z, GBP pairs, watch claimant count rate
0930 Quarterly inflation report C/E High See above, priced in
1230 CA Int'l merchandise trade Jun Ccy Med 0.5B CAD pairs
US Trade balance Jun C/E Med -42.2B -42.3B Indices, USD pairs, priced in
1430 EIA petroleum status report Aug 6 CL Med CL, USD, euro
1800 Budget statement Jul Equ M/L -180.7B See above

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See contact info below.

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The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.