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Demography, Early History of

Simon Szreter, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK


2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abstract

Demography has developed since the seventeenth century as a core set of analytical techniques for evaluating observed
change in population aggregates in relation to the varying processes of mortality, fertility, and migration. It has been
dependent on the apparatus of nation-states to generate its essential data of population age- and sex-structures and ows of
vital events. Crucial technical developments have been the perfection of life tables and of stable population theory. The
necessarily contentious interpretation of the causes of demographic change involves a wide range of ecological, political, and
cultural factors, with the seminal work of Thomas Malthus (17661834) remaining highly inuential.

Demography is the study of processes of change in human guide or prevent certain population movements, to secure
populations. Demography consists of three interrelated intel- desired imperialist patterns of settlement across the globe,
lectual activities: the collection and validation of appropriate became a new object of state policy, with the proliferation of
evidence; analysis using an expanding and sophisticated body the technology of the international passport c.18801930, as
of mathematical and statistical techniques, which are designed both symbol of an individuals membership of a national
to avoid a range of pitfalls; and, nally, the interpretation of the population and tool for attempting to control migration.
relationship between the revealed demographic processes and As an institutionalized academic discipline, demography is
the encompassing epidemiological, natural, economic, and a relatively recent arrival in the social sciences. Before World
social environments. To a limited extent these relations can be War II there were only a handful of established academic posts
analyzed quantitatively but interpretation also requires in demography, mostly privately funded in the US universities,
engagement with wider issues relating to culture, religion, a couple at the London School of Economics. Yet, ofcials
ideology, politics, and international relations, as exemplied in performing at least some key population counting and
the seminal work of the elds most inuential founding accounting tasks have existed for millennia, by virtue of the
thinker, Thomas R. Malthus (17661834). obvious importance to political leaders of enumeration of
The gradual emergence of the modern discipline of populations, or at least sections of them, for scal, military,
demography between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries administrative, and colonial purposes. This dates back to the
was associated with an increasingly exclusive focus on mathe- worlds ancient civilizations, for instance, in Mesopotamia,
matically tractable properties of population aggregates. Fou- China, and Egypt. Furthermore, compilation of family gene-
cault has identied this schematically with an increasing focus alogies and maintenance of vital registers of births, marriages,
of sovereign powers typically nation-states on their pop- and deaths both for religious and legal purposes have vener-
ulations as aggregates, which came to be conceived within able histories, too; and the data they generated are now proving
analytical demography analogous to biological entities of the to be of value for demographic historians of early modern
natural world, with processes of fertility and mortality of Europe, North and South America, Japan, and China, for
paramount concern for explaining change over time. Hence instance.
knowledge of the age- and sex- structure of the population has Modern demographic study of population aggregates
been necessary in order to measure these processes accurately, requires two kinds of information. First, on the current stock of
requiring appropriate ofcial census and registration systems to the dened population (numbers of each sex alive at each year
provide the necessary data. Kreager points out, however, that of age) usually supplied through accurate and regular census
since at least Aristotle, there has also always been a second details (now taken decennially in most countries); and second,
approach to the study of human population change, which information on the continuous ow of vital events, the
addresses sociocultural and political questions of what deter- numbers of each sex born alive, and the numbers dying at each
mines mutually acknowledged membership of a dened pop- exact age. This permits calculation of the age- and sex-specic
ulation, independently of the biological facts of life of birth rates of fertility and mortality necessary for genuinely compa-
and death. As Bashford has recently shown, toward the close of rable measures of a populations principal dynamic demo-
the nineteenth century the most economically advanced graphic characteristics. Allowing for the effects of net in- or
nation-states became aware of the practical importance of such out-migration requires an additional source of information
issues of membership of their national populations as their for accurate demographic measures of fertility and mortality,
imperialist aspirations bumped up against each other in with various forms of undocumented migration always
a newly closed world lacking any further uncharted and providing a challenge for demographers to estimate in order
unclaimed open frontiers. Such ecological competition was to produce unbiased estimates of population change. Many
also informed by increasingly dominant racist and social further kinds of demographic and epidemiological analysis
Darwinist conated perceptions of the physical and cultural can be undertaken provided that the appropriate detailed
differences between human groups. Attempts to control and information is routinely collected, as can occur in advanced

170 International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition, Volume 6 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.03031-2
Demography, Early History of 171

universalist, health care systems, such as details on ages and thus grasped the two fundamental demographic insights: that
causes of death, or on mothers ages and parity (i.e., how many the age- and sex- composition of a population powerfully
previous live births). inuences the incidence of vital events; and this means that
The study of populations of any size presupposes an ofcial population processes are all signicantly interdependent.
apparatus of data collection of some considerable sophistica- Life table techniques developed very gradually over the
tion and demography is therefore unique among the social ensuing century, with notable work by Sir Edmund Halley
sciences in the extent of its intimate involvement with the (16561742), the Dutchman Willem Kersseboom (c.1690
priorities of governments and ofcials and the wider inuences 1771), the German Johann Sssmilch (170767), the
of politics upon the state. Until recently only government Frenchman Antoine Deparcieux (170368), the Swiss-born
bureaucracies could command the clerical resources required Leonhard Euler (170783), and a host of British contribu-
for the statistical analysis of national demographic data. Hence tors to the so-called population controversy (over whether or
demography before 1945 tended to be the preserve of state not the kingdoms population had increased since the
ofcials or those with trusted ofcial access. It was in fact Glorious Revolution of 168889, when the civil servant
government census bureaux, which provided the initial Gregory King had compiled, from tax returns, the only detailed
demand for automated punch-card tabulating machines and estimate of a European nations population made in the early
later for the production of the rst nonmilitary electronic modern period). Finally, the rst technically correct empirical
computers (the US Census Bureaus UNIVAC, commissioned life table was published in 1815, for commercial actuarial
for the 1950 census). The subsequent proliferation of cheap purposes, by Joshua Milne (17761851), using accurate
computing resources has undoubtedly been a necessary census and vital registration data collected for public health
precondition for the expansion of demography as an academic purposes in Carlisle by Dr John Heysham (17531834) during
discipline with numerous independent, nonofcial practi- the years 177987.
tioners now able to participate in the eld of study. During the nineteenth century the principal institution
Demography has therefore had a close historical association promoting the further technical development of demographic
with the rise of nation-states throughout the entire modern analysis was the General Register Ofce (GRO) in London. This
period. But demographys earlier development has also been British lead was an unlikely development, in that the British
strongly inuenced at times by the needs of smaller, subna- census was not even established on a permanent basis (it had to
tional polities, such as the municipalities of Britain since the be invoked by a separate Act of Parliament every 10 years),
seventeenth century or the federated states of eighteenth- whereas the Scandinavian countries of Iceland (1703) and
century Germany. Furthermore, the institutional and intellec- Sweden (1749) had already instigated regular census-taking,
tual character of demographys rapid disciplinary growth since while the new, expanding federation of the United States of
World War II has been much inuenced by explicitly trans- America had also committed itself to regular censuses, as an
national institutions such as the UN and the World Bank and integral part of its new process of democratic political repre-
major independent (though mostly American) philanthropic sentation. Meanwhile the French and Belgians, with the
organizations, such as the Rockefeller and the Ford Founda- Marquis de Condorcet, Pierre-Simon Laplace, Joseph Fourier,
tions, which funded the postwar institutional expansion of Adolphe Quetelet, Alexandre Parent-Duchtelet, and Louis
demography and its associated theory of demographic transi- Rn Villerm, initially led the world in the relevant mathe-
tion through the UN Population Council and the rst centers matical elds of probability and the application of statistics to
of training in Latin America, Asia, and Africa. Nevertheless, human biomedical affairs. The British lead in vital statistics
national governments remain the principal collectors of that opened up in the mid-nineteenth century was due to
continuous series of veried, authentic demographic data, a chain of chance occurrences. The GRO was created by statute
so that the nation remains the typical reference population to oversee from 1837, a national civil registration system of
addressed. births, deaths, and marriages, which was created not for public
Modern demographys origins are conventionally traced health or demographic purposes but as a liberal reform granting
to the practitioners of political arithmetic in Restoration dissenters, a record of their vital events independent of the long-
England. From the fteenth century onward, initially among standing parish registers of the Established Church, in order to
some Italian city states, it was increasingly the practice of ensure nonconformists legal rights in common with the rest of
European cities to compile bills of mortality weekly death the population in relation to records for property-holding
records as an early warning system for epidemics, particularly and inheritance. In 1840, as a temporary expedient this small
of plague. In London, the existence of this data provided the department of government, the GRO, then became vested
immediate context for the rst recorded efforts at demographic with responsibility for taking the nations fth census of 1841
analysis by John Graunt (162974), the father of modern (the rst occurred in 1801). The Registrar Generals recently
demography. In his Natural and political observations made upon appointed statistical assistant, William Farr, was an unknown
the bills of mortality (1662), he also used records of London man of humble origins, a trained medical doctor, and a self-
christenings to develop a rudimentary life table. This is the taught statistician (partly through a visit to Paris, in 1830s
fundamental technique for the correct analysis of mortality a leading center of application of statistics to medicine).
because it divides the population into age sections and gives A representative member of the European-wide generation
statistics for the probability of dying at each age, which can enthused by the promise of a statistical science of society
then be arithmetically summed to a single average life expec- inspired by the Belgian astronomer, Adolphe Quetelet (1796
tancy at any age, enabling populations with vastly different age 1874), William Farr (180783) seized the opportunity pre-
structures or mortality regimes to be compared. Graunt had sented by his responsibility for processing the two essential
172 Demography, Early History of

sources required for demographic analysis. He launched a four- utilizing an ever-increasing range of examples drawn from
decade long career of innovative demographic and comparative across the world to show how profoundly they were also
epidemiological work. Britain was at this time in the throes of inuenced by customs, beliefs, and politics. He notoriously
a profound mortality crisis in its industrial cities and Farr saw drew the wrath of Marx for his support for the radical reduction
his work analyzing the death rates as guiding a national public of the nations welfare net which resulted in the amendment of
health campaign to reduce preventable mortality from the the Poor Laws in 1834, on the grounds that its generosity was
many infectious and sanitary diseases, which his studies discouraging prudence among the prolic poor who married
demonstrated to be so variable in their incidence in different too young and so had too many children. However, as Bash-
local government jurisdictions across the land. Of course rural ford points out, Malthus cannot be caricatured simply as
Ireland also suffered the calamity of its great famine in the late a heartless apologist for bourgeois capitalism and European
1840s but Farrs remit did not extend there. Although Ireland expansion his moral concerns for the future of the indigenous
was an integral part of the United Kingdom from 1801, there inhabitants of North America and their way of life contrast
was to be no vital registration system for the property-less, interestingly with the contemporary views of Benjamin
Catholic peasantry until 1864. Thus, while it was in a Pari- Franklin, for instance. While Mao Zedongs initial policy for
sian publication that the term demography was rst coined in Communist China, more people, more power, was, following
1855 by Quetelets Belgian countryman, Achille Guillard it Marx, consciously anti-Malthusian, China retained allegiance
was in Britain that it was most intensively practiced and to communism when it radically reversed this policy with the
developed as vital statistics. Signicant work was certainly also hyper-Malthusianism of the one-child policy from the late
done in other ofcial statistical ofces. Indeed, the most 1970s under the inuence of the Song group of technocrats,
important subsequent innovation following the perfection of whose rise to policy preeminence has been documented by
the life table in the development of demographic techniques of Greenhalgh.
analysis was the Lexis diagram invented by the German statis- Throughout the remainder of the nineteenth century,
tician, Wilhelm Lexis (18371914), in 1875 for representing however, most of those studying demographic phenomena
the relationship between cohorts (or generations) and period were, like Darwin, gentlemen scholars in local and national
effects (events). statistical societies; also medical men, municipal, and some
The GROs lead was surprising in another sense in that the state ofcials scattered all across Europe and North America.
single English name most widely associated with the origins of From mid-nineteenth century they met periodically at
demography is not the civil servant William Farr with his International Congresses of Statistics, then of Hygiene and
primary medical focus on preventable mortality, but the cleric Demography and eventually of Eugenics. But it was not until
and academic, Thomas Robert Malthus, whose focus was on the interwar decades of the twentieth century that demography
the economy and preventable fertility. Malthuss An essay on began to emerge with an independent disciplinary and
the principle of population, as it affects the future improvement of professional identity, marked initially by the formation in
society, published anonymously in 1798, famously enunciated 1928 of the International Union for the Scientic Study of
on page 14 of its opening chapter that Population, when Population, followed in 1931 by the foundation of the Pop-
unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence ulation Association of America.
increases only in an arithmetical ratio. He argued that all However, this formative era from the late nineteenth
policy to enhance a populations welfare was conservatively century onward had also witnessed the rise of nationalist and
constrained by this limitation principle. Malthus, who held the imperialist rivalries and associated racist, social Darwinist
rst ever Chair in Political Economy in Britain and regarded ideologies. This came to exert a dominant (though not
Adam Smith as his principal mentor, thereby applied the uncontested) inuence over the practice of demography during
fundamental economic problem of scarcity to demography and the interwar years. French demography was perhaps the rst to
produced an ecological analysis, which, as is well-known, experience this overtly nationalist and xenophobic current, in
subsequently independently stimulated rst Darwin and then the form of a defensive pronatalist popular reaction to defeat in
A.R. Wallace to each apply a similar logic to the problem of the the FrancoPrussian war of 187071. This was partly ascribed
origin of species, thereby coauthoring in 1858 the theory of to her extremely low birth rate, the French being the rst nation
evolution through survival of the ttest. in the world to have practiced widespread family limitation.
Malthus was therefore, at once, a seminal inuence on The titles of the works of Frances leading demographers, such
evolution, ecology, and demography. In relation to demog- as Arsne Dumont, Jacques Bertillon, and Adolphe Landry
raphy this was especially in terms of the third intellectual repeatedly referred to Dpopulation and decadence while her
activity outlined above, interpretation. His forthright axioms great novelist, Zola, writing in exile in London after the Dreyfus
and their policy implications demanded a response from the affair, mourned Frances lost Fcondit (1899). The study of
intellectuals of every country and secured a permanent place for population problems in the interwar period became increas-
the discussion of population problems in the social and bio- ingly subsumed within this social Darwinist agenda. With its
logical sciences and in the corridors of government and power. continuing necessary association with the state, demography
In the ve-times revised and extended editions of his Essay in was inevitably heavily implicated in the policies of the Fascist
his own lifetime he continued to feed the debate, further and Nazi regimes with their totalitarian ideologies. Under
analyzing and exploring the manner in which aggregate pop- the Nazi regime the potential for both demographic and
ulation change, mortality and migration, and individuals and economic forms of analysis to be applied as analytic systems of
families reproductive behavior is integrated into the encom- logic devoid of humane or moral considerations became trag-
passing natural, social, and economic environment, while ically manifest. Nazi Bevlkerungswissenschaft mechanically
Demography, Early History of 173

extended the notion of an economically optimal density of are dependent on the institutional context and on demand
population (relative to capital and living standards, rather than factors external to the discipline.
simply land), which had underpinned Hitlers racist notion of After World War II, demography rapidly responded to the
Lebensraum, to arrive at apparently logical but murderous demand of the growing global preoccupation with planned
conclusions that population densities should be reduced in economic growth, propelled in this direction by the US stra-
inefcient circumstances, where Jews and Poles were con- tegic interests in the context of the Cold War rivalry with the
cerned, for instance. USSR for client states among the many decolonizing peoples of
International demography conferences in both Rome and the less-developed world. Consequently, the period since 1945
Berlin in the late 1930s were partially boycotted and disrupted has become a relatively clearly demarcated third era in the
due to concern at the emerging demographic policies of Fascist history of demography when, with racist sociobiology dis-
regimes. But even in more liberal Britain, USA, or social credited, in many senses it returned to the original Malthusian
democratic Sweden, demographic analysis became obsessed economic agenda and a policy preoccupation with fertility
with class-differential fertility, problem families, and fears of restraint, especially in the developing countries where most of
a ight from parenthood associated with a succession of the worlds poor reside. The model of demographic transition
illiberal movements for national efciency, eugenics, and has dominated the disciplines approach throughout this era.
social hygiene. Only in the ideologically separatist USSR, was This is a general historical model, promoted and adapted by
population analysis relatively free from this association (until Frank Notestein (190283), the highly inuential and well-
Stalins own pronatalist drive during the war). But this was connected rst Director, 193659, of the Princeton Ofce of
primarily because of the absence of Western-style demogra- Population Research (OPR), the most important institutional
phers, due to Marxs historic demonization of Malthus as the center for the new American-led demography. Demographic
ultimate apologist of the bourgeoisie and their dismal science transition theory proposes that in order for a nation to achieve
of political economy. In the massive, unmanageable conti- sustained long-term economic growth it must reduce both its
nental empire of the new Soviet Union, Hirsch shows how the mortality and, especially, its fertility levels to those attained by
alternative (Aristotelian) compositional and membership the modernized, liberal democratic Western countries. The
approach to population accounting was dominant in the of- model has surprisingly little consistent support in either the
cial practice of the revolutionary peoples commissars: a historical or contemporary record but it has survived repeated
preoccupation with mapping the geographical distribution of revisionist challenges and has undoubtedly served the disci-
ethnic nationals (narodnosti) and with the control of movement pline well as a model that is compliant with an overarching
of categories of workers in the economy through the use of an ideological position endorsing the goals of promoting
internal passport system in fact inherited from the Tsarist economic development of liberal market economies round the
regime, the Propiska, similarly to the Chinese Communist world. This has successfully elicited a continuous ow of funds
states subsequent adapted usage of the ancient Hukuo system for both research and family planning programs from Western
of household registration. governments and philanthropic foundations.
In the non-Communist world in the immediate aftermath It was in this policy context that external demands increased
of World War II and Nazi excesses, in Europe, it was only in for various applications of stable population theory. Within the
France and Britain that institutions for demographic research dominant postwar liberal consensus of modernization theory,
positively ourished. LInstitut National dtudes Dmo- economic growth was seen as a generic process, such that less-
graphiques under Alfred Sauvy (18981990) and the Pop- developed countries could be engineered to repeat the experi-
ulation Investigation Committee of the London School of ence of the developed countries. Fertility restraint and mortality
Economics under David Glass (191178) both founded their reduction were important population policy inputs to permit
respective journals in 1946, Population and Population Studies, the occurrence of incremental capitaloutput ratios, considered
respectively. However, the decade of the 1940s in fact marks essential for industrialization. This would be jeopardized by
a signicant shift in which the center of gravity of the discipline too great a demographic dependency burden (too many young
of demography migrated from the colonial powers of Europe and invalid old in the population) diverting national income
to USA. It was symbolic of this coming change that in work into current consumption instead of savings and capital accu-
published between 1907 and 1939 a European-born but mulation. Stable population theory enabled model life tables
American-naturalized mathematician, Alfred Lotka (1880 to be devised by A.J. Coale (19172002) (Notesteins successor
1949), devised the proofs for the equations of renewal as Director of OPR) and Paul Demeny, and indirect estimation
processes, which underlie stable population theory (showing techniques to be formulated by W. Brass (192199) of the
that populations always come to exhibit a constant age struc- London School of Hygiene, which permitted the measurement
ture and growth rate if their fertility and mortality rates are of demographic parameters in many of the less-developed
unchanging). This has proved to be the most important countries where primary information, both census and, espe-
mathematical advance in demography since the perfection of cially, vital registration, was defective. A further application, for
the life table technique (which applied to nonrenewal the same reason, has been its use in back projection and
processes). Intriguingly, unknown to Lotka, Leonhard Euler generalized inverse projection in historical demographic work.
(170783) had already solved these equations in the eigh- Along with the application of ground-breaking work in the
teenth century. Indeed, Lotkas work itself remained largely family reconstitution of historical communities by Louis
unexploited until after World War II, both facts which Henry (191191), this has enabled Sir E.A. Wrigley (b.1931)
demonstrate that technical advances within social science and his colleagues at the Cambridge Group for the History of
disciplines do not in themselves necessarily cause change but Population and Social Structure to utilize the parish registers of
174 Demography, Early History of

baptisms, marriages, and burials originally established by the in most governments, is likely to include much more active
Tudor monarchy to reconstruct the detailed demographic discussion of the relationship between its inherited inventory
record of the rst industrial nation, England, back to the mid- of Western social categories and those of other peoples,
sixteenth century, thereby, incidentally, demonstrating the something also likely to follow from the increasing sophisti-
invalidity of the demographic transition model in this impor- cation of historical and anthropological demography. It is
tant case. likely to be less exclusively consumed with the problems of
Demography has achieved a considerable degree of disci- engendering economic growth and more with social equity and
plinary and institutional success, in many senses enviable by public health issues, including those of longevity and aging,
the standards of the other social sciences. Since 1945, training along with another Malthusian inheritance ecological
institutions have proliferated, primarily under the aegis of the problems of the uses and distribution of material wealth, plus
Rockefeller-funded Population Council located in New York, the major issues of the rise of international migration and
so that demographers are now trained in many centers in all the mobility in a more culturally interconnected (globalized) but
continents. By plausibly reducing, for certain purposes, the also more unequal world economy. This would, to some
complexity of human affairs in matters of reproduction, extent, represent a return, on a global scale, to the issues, which
morbidity, mortality, migration, and mobility, to tractable so preoccupied the mid-nineteenth century demographic
mathematical models, demography has achieved considerable observers of the human disruption wreaked in Britain and
analytical power. Like classical and neoclassical economics, Europe by the worlds rst great wave of rapid economic
conventional demographic analysis embraces a positivist growth. At the same time greater reintegration of demography
epistemology. It also starts from the liberal and democratic into the intellectual concerns of both the biosciences and also
foundational ction that each individual can, in principle, be the wider humanities is likely to be mutually benecial, with
legitimately treated as an equivalent accounting unit, the recent advances in study of the human genome, greater
a presumption that could only make sense in a post-Lockean appreciation of gender and sexual diversity, and also of the
world, where a working man could be deemed to count for changing planetary environment as three salient and diverse
the same as a prince, hence demographys rst text by John examples of major recent intellectual developments likely to
Graunt came from the hand of an exact contemporary of John impact on the ways demography is used and studied in the
Lockes, another survivor of the modern worlds rst overthrow future.
of a supposedly divinely appointed sovereign. The resulting
accounting system has provided the basis for an increasingly See also: Data Bases and Statistical Systems: Demography;
elaborate range of useful technical developments, such as, Demography: History Since 1900; Families and Households,
recently, multistate and multiregional demography. Formal Demography of; Historical Demography; Malthus,
Inevitably, however, there is an intellectual price to be paid Thomas Robert (17661834); Population Aging: Economic and
for the preservation of demographys analytical rigor. Rather Social Consequences; Population Forecasts.
like the practice of so-called mainstream economics, this,
along with its close relationship with the policy needs of
governments and other agencies involved in planning and
development practices, has tended to insulate demography
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