000 WTNT44 KNHC 251453 TCDAT4 Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number

21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT

Fri Aug 25 2017 Multiple observing platforms indicate that Harvey's
structure is evolving this morning. The hurricane has developed
concentric eyewalls, as observed in data from the WSR-88D Doppler
radars in Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane reported double wind maxima with diameters of
12 and 28 n mi. The aircraft data indicate that the central
pressure has continued to fall--now down to 947 mb--but the maximum
winds have not increased further. This discrepancy is not
surprising given hurricane's current structure. Intensity forecasts
become complicated once a hurricane develops concentric eyewalls,
and fluctuations in intensity become more likely. If an eyewall
replacement occurs, then Harvey's intensity could decrease a bit
while at the same time the overall wind field increases in size.
However, the hurricane remains in an environment for
intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity is
still possible before the center reaches land. But in the end, the
hurricane's exact intensity at landfall does not change the fact
that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland
across much of southern and southeastern Texas. Slow weakening is
expected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not
expected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to
maintain tropical storm status through Wednesday. Harvey has not
quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion estimate is 315/9
kt. Strong mid-level ridging building over the western United
States is still expected to impede Harvey's forward motion in the
coming days, and the track guidance continues to show the hurricane
meandering or stalling near or just inland of the Texas coast in 36-
48 hours. Harvey could begin moving slowly eastward on days 4 and 5
due to the influence of a mid-level shortwave trough digging
southward over the upper Midwest, but at this time it is too early
to say whether the center will definitely re-emerge over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Harvey is expected
to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations should be rushed to completion in
the warning areas as tropical-storm-force winds are arriving on the
coast, and conditions will continue to deteriorate through the rest
of today and tonight. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for
much of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding could
reach heights of 6 to 12 feet above ground level at the coast
between the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and
Sargent. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of
Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow, water levels will
remain elevated for several days. 3. Catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas
coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches, with isolated amounts
as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday. Please refer to products
from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. 4.
The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the
amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded
at each individual location. This map best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 26.7N 96.0W 95
KT 110 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 27.6N 96.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H
26/1200Z 28.4N 97.3W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0000Z 28.8N
97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 97.6W 55 KT
65 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/1200Z 28.3N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H
30/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg