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STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENT - GUMBEL ACT -

Annual Annual F (x) Reduced Pjmax


Year Pjmax
Year
Pjmax
Rang r
empirical variable uq empirical
1931 11.6 1959 10 1 0.01 -1.527 12.40
1932 34 1931 11.6 2 0.03 -1.255 18.50
1933 62.5 1973 12.5 3 0.05 -1.097 22.03
1934 55.5 1944 19.3 4 0.07 -0.978 24.70
1935 57 1981 31 5 0.09 -0.879 26.92
1936 42.5 1967 33.3 6 0.11 -0.792 28.87
1937 48.5 1932 34 7 0.13 -0.713 30.64
1938 45 1974 35 8 0.15 -0.640 32.26
1939 103 1971 38 9 0.17 -0.572 33.79
1940 101 1984 39.5 10 0.19 -0.507 35.25
1941 66 1936 42.5 11 0.21 -0.445 36.64
1942 58 1946 42.8 12 0.23 -0.385 37.98
1943 70 1938 45 13 0.25 -0.327 39.29
1944 19.3 1960 47 14 0.27 -0.270 40.57
1945 52.9 1937 48.5 15 0.29 -0.213 41.83
1946 42.8 1988 49 16 0.31 -0.158 43.07
1947 50.1 1947 50.1 17 0.33 -0.103 44.30
1948 67.6 1972 52 18 0.35 -0.049 45.52
1949 56.8 1945 52.9 19 0.37 0.006 46.74
1950 123.8 1954 53 20 0.39 0.060 47.96
1951 87.7 1979 53 21 0.41 0.115 49.18
1952 70 1953 54.1 22 0.43 0.170 50.41
1953 54.1 1978 54.5 23 0.45 0.225 51.65
1954 53 1934 55.5 24 0.47 0.281 52.90
1955 67.5 1982 56 25 0.49 0.338 54.17
1959 10 1983 56.5 26 0.51 0.395 55.47
1960 47 1949 56.8 27 0.53 0.454 56.78
1961 63 1935 57 28 0.55 0.514 58.13
1962 88 1986 57 29 0.57 0.576 59.51
1963 130.5 1942 58 30 0.59 0.639 60.93
1964 59 1966 58 31 0.61 0.705 62.39
1965 73 1964 59 32 0.63 0.772 63.90
1966 58 1933 62.5 33 0.65 0.842 65.47
1967 33.3 1961 63 34 0.67 0.915 67.11
1968 65 1968 65 35 0.69 0.991 68.81
1969 101 1941 66 36 0.71 1.072 70.61
1971 38 1955 67.5 37 0.73 1.156 72.50
1972 52 1948 67.6 38 0.75 1.246 74.52
1973 12.5 1943 70 39 0.77 1.342 76.67
1974 35 1952 70 40 0.79 1.445 78.98
1978 54.5 1965 73 41 0.81 1.557 81.49
1979 53 1987 78 42 0.83 1.680 84.25
1981 31 1951 87.7 43 0.85 1.817 87.31
1982 56 1962 88 44 0.87 1.971 90.77
1983 56.5 1985 91 45 0.89 2.150 94.76
1984 39.5 1940 101 46 0.91 2.361 99.50
1985 91 1969 101 47 0.93 2.623 105.37
1986 57 1939 103 48 0.95 2.970 113.14
1987 78 1950 123.8 49 0.97 3.491 124.81
1988 49 1963 130.5 50 0.99 4.600 149.65
Priode de retour : T= 2 5 10 20 100
Frquence de non dpassement : F(x) 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.95 0.99
variable rduite uq = 0.367 1.500 2.250 2.970 4.600
Pj max ( T) Pj max = 54.82 80.21 97.02 113.14 149.65

P(24h,T) = 1,15*Pj max P( 24h,T) 63 92 112 130 172


STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENT - GUMBEL ACT -

Gumbel Law

observations
Loi thorique

300

250
Pj max

200

150

100

50

0
-2.000 0.000 2.000 4.000 6.000
variable reduce

n= 50
Moyenne xm = 58.6
Ecart type = 25.5
Max = 130.5
Min = 10
Me = 56.25
-0.29940554 -0.69314718 0.568049118

0.44
24.52898042
n : Sample size 50
M : Average 58.6
S : Deviation Type 25.5
Cv : coefficient of varia 0.4
Max : Maximum observe 130.5
Min : Minimum observed 10
Me : Valeure Median 56.3

According to the method of moments:


b" =6/ x 19.86
a" = xm - b" 47.16

After the maximum likelihood method:

b" =xm - [ xi exp(-xi/b")/exp(-xi/b") ]

b" = 22.4

a" =b" ln [ n/exp(-xi/b") ]

a" = 46.6

xq = a + b uq
uq = (xq-a)/b

T = 1/(1- F(x))

Return period : T= 2 5 10 100


Frequency not F(x) 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.99
uq = 0.367 1.500 2.250 4.600
Pj max = xq = 54.817911204 80.206677486 97.01625 149.65136
b" =xm - [ xi exp(-xi/b")/exp(-xi/b") ]
xi exp(-xi / b") (-xi / b") exp(-xi / b") b" = xi exp(-xi / b")
1931 11.6 6.4674943851 -0.58421633 0.557542619 24.8 11.6 7.3
1932 34 6.1349523577 -1.71235821 0.180439775 34 8.6464333761
1933 62.5 2.6843785671 -3.1477173 0.042950057 62.5 5.0441530679
1934 55.5 3.3912889041 -2.79517296 0.061104305 55.5 5.9378264503
1935 57 3.229518609 -2.87071818 0.056658221 57 5.7408363943
1936 42.5 4.9980923556 -2.14044777 0.117602173 42.5 7.6751440113
1937 48.5 4.2162038931 -2.44262863 0.086932039 48.5 6.8786392359
1938 45 4.6660180058 -2.26635646 0.103689289 45 7.3482926896
1939 103 0.5753888965 -5.18743811 0.0055863 103 1.6271290682
1940 101 0.6240089032 -5.08671116 0.006178306 101 1.729358724
1941 66 2.3765866353 -3.32398947 0.036008888 66 4.6263558699
1942 58 3.1247721063 -2.92108166 0.053875381 58 5.6109815413
1943 70 2.0607126388 -3.52544338 0.029438752 70 4.1767191014
1944 19.3 7.3015743781 -0.9720151 0.378319916 19.3 8.8717761118
1945 52.9 3.6846495328 -2.66422792 0.06965311 52.9 6.2843853293
1946 42.8 4.9578951927 -2.15555681 0.115838673 42.8 7.6365030852
1947 50.1 4.0181066899 -2.52321019 0.08020173 50.1 6.6621647892
1948 67.6 2.2457441799 -3.40457103 0.033221068 67.6 4.4428192813
1949 56.8 3.2507665885 -2.86064548 0.057231806 56.8 5.7669547523
1950 123.8 0.2426024773 -6.23499843 0.001959632 124 0.8463002825
1951 87.7 1.0587034315 -4.41687692 0.012071875 87.7 2.565507185

1952 70 2.0607126388 -3.52544338 0.029438752 70 4.1767191014


1953 54.1 3.547240898 -2.7246641 0.065568224 54.1 6.1237441471
1954 53 3.673069328 -2.66926427 0.069303195 53 6.2709603792

1955 67.5 2.2537441774 -3.39953469 0.033388803 67.5 4.4541482898


1959 10 6.0433006307 -0.50363477 0.604330063 10 6.685060136
1960 47 4.4064271491 -2.36708341 0.093753769 47 7.0809716267
1961 63 2.6385662599 -3.17289904 0.041882004 63 4.9831510877
1962 88 1.046394927 -4.43198596 0.011890851 88 2.543369586
1963 130.5 0.182489891 -6.57243373 0.00139839 131 0.6811376963
1964 59 3.022524203 -2.97144513 0.051229224 59 5.4824337192
1965 73 1.8476704562 -3.67653381 0.025310554 73 3.8600389242
1966 58 3.1247721063 -2.92108166 0.053875381 58 5.6109815413
1967 33.3 6.224254142 -1.67710378 0.186914539 33.3 8.7105372758
1968 65 2.4614762611 -3.27362599 0.037868866 65 4.7434893071
1969 101 0.6240089032 -5.08671116 0.006178306 101 1.729358724
1971 38 5.605644521 -1.91381212 0.147516961 38 8.2259072115
1972 52 3.7899124689 -2.6189008 0.072882932 52 6.4054699637
1973 12.5 6.6604375725 -0.62954346 0.532835006 12.5 7.555994984
1974 35 6.005203675 -1.76272169 0.171577248 35 8.5494201133
1978 54.5 3.5021995521 -2.74480949 0.064260542 54.5 6.070444422
1979 53 3.673069328 -2.66926427 0.069303195 53 6.2709603792
1981 31 6.5059648337 -1.56126778 0.209869833 31 8.8958649407
1982 56 3.3367490291 -2.8203547 0.059584804 56 5.8718886284
1983 56.5 3.2828245575 -2.84553644 0.05810309 56.5 5.8062201216
1984 39.5 5.402940472 -1.98935733 0.136783303 39.5 8.0493924699
1985 91 0.9303290997 -4.58307639 0.010223397 91 2.3307719845
1986 57 3.229518609 -2.87071818 0.056658221 57 5.7408363943
1987 78 1.5347348564 -3.92835119 0.019676088 78 3.3722214445
1988 49 4.1537433244 -2.46781036 0.084770272 49 6.8110197551
0

172.0793826 5.092879728 278.481560548


(-xi / b") exp(-xi / b") b" = xi exp(-x
(-xi / exp(-x
b") b" = xi exp(-x
(-xi / b")
exp(-x b" = xi exp(-x
(-x
-0.5 0.6 20.6 11.6 6.6 -0.6 0.6 24.1 11.6 7.2 -0.5 0.6 21.1#########
-1.36921 0.25430686 34 6.505 -2 0.2 34 8.306 -1.41 0.244 ### 7 -2
-2.51694 0.08070645 62.5 2.989 -3 0 62.5 4.686 -2.59 0.075 ### 3 -3
-2.23504 0.10698786 55.5 3.731 -3 0.1 55.5 5.561 -2.3 0.1 ### 4 -3
-2.29545 0.10071643 57 3.563 -3 0.1 57 5.367 -2.36 0.094 ### 4 -3
-1.71152 0.18059162 42.5 5.378 -2 0.1 42.5 7.3 -1.76 0.172 ### 6 -2
-1.95314 0.14182761 48.5 4.584 -2 0.1 48.5 6.496 -2 0.134 ### 5 -2
-1.81219 0.16329539 45 5.042 -2 0.1 45 6.968 -1.87 0.155 ### 5 -2
-4.14791 0.01579737 103 0.687 -5 0 103 1.441 -4.27 0.014 ### 1 -5
-4.06737 0.01712236 101 0.743 -5 0 101 1.535 -4.19 0.015 ### 1 -5
-2.65789 0.0700963 66 2.663 -3 0 66 4.28 -2.74 0.065 ### 3 -3
-2.33572 0.09674106 58 3.453 -3 0.1 58 5.24 -2.4 0.09 ### 4 -3
-2.81897 0.05966742 70 2.325 -3 0 70 3.846 -2.9 0.055 ### 3 -3
-0.77723 0.45967752 19.3 7.548 -1 0.4 19.3 8.672 -0.8 0.449 ### 8 -1
-2.13034 0.11879745 52.9 4.036 -3 0.1 52.9 5.904 -2.19 0.112 ### 4 -3
-1.7236 0.17842297 42.8 5.337 -2 0.1 42.8 7.26 -1.77 0.17 ### 6 -2
-2.01758 0.13297734 50.1 4.38 -2 0.1 50.1 6.28 -2.08 0.125 ### 5 -2
-2.72232 0.06572218 67.6 2.523 -3 0 67.6 4.102 -2.8 0.061 ### 3 -3
-2.28739 0.10153089 56.8 3.585 -3 0.1 56.8 5.393 -2.35 0.095 ### 4 -3
-4.98555 0.00683603 124 0.3 -6 0 123.8 0.731 -5.13 0.006 ### 0 -6
-3.53177 0.02925322 87.7 1.231 -4 0 87.7 2.313 -3.64 0.026 ### 1 -4

-2.81897 0.05966742 70 2.325 -3 0 70 3.846 -2.9 0.055 ### 3 -3


-2.17866 0.11319305 54.1 3.894 -3 0.1 54.1 5.745 -2.24 0.106 ### 4 -3
-2.13436 0.11832001 53 4.024 -3 0.1 53 5.891 -2.2 0.111 ### 4 -3

-2.71829 0.06598738 67.5 2.532 -3 0 67.5 4.113 -2.8 0.061 ### 3 -3


-0.40271 0.66850601 10 6.148 0 0.6 10 6.607 -0.41 0.661 ### 6 0
-1.89274 0.15065897 47 4.778 -2 0.1 47 6.699 -1.95 0.143 ### 5 -2
-2.53707 0.07909764 63 2.941 -3 0 63 4.626 -2.61 0.073 ### 3 -3
-3.54385 0.02890193 88 1.218 -4 0 88 2.293 -3.65 0.026 ### 1 -4
-5.25536 0.00521945 131 0.228 -6 0 130.5 0.584 -5.41 0.004 ### 0 -6
-2.37599 0.09292261 59 3.346 -3 0.1 59 5.114 -2.45 0.087 ### 4 -3
-2.93978 0.05287725 73 2.095 -4 0 73 3.541 -3 0.049 ### 2 -3
-2.33572 0.09674106 58 3.453 -3 0.1 58 5.24 -2.4 0.09 ### 4 -3
-1.34102 0.2615777 33.3 6.592 -2 0.2 33.3 8.375 -1.38 0.251 ### 7 -2
-2.61761 0.07297676 65 2.753 -3 0 65 4.393 -2.69 0.068 ### 3 -3
-4.06737 0.01712236 101 0.743 -5 0 101 1.535 -4.19 0.015 ### 1 -5
-1.5303 0.21647124 38 5.985 -2 0.2 38 7.865 -1.58 0.207 ### 6 -2
-2.09409 0.12318211 52 4.145 -3 0.1 52 6.024 -2.16 0.116 ### 4 -2
-0.50339 0.6044796 12.5 6.805 -1 0.5 12.5 7.445 -0.52 0.596 ### 7 -1
-1.40948 0.24426915 35 6.378 -2 0.2 35 8.204 -1.45 0.234 ### 7 -2
-2.19477 0.1113843 54.5 3.847 -3 0.1 54.5 5.692 -2.26 0.104 ### 4 -3
-2.13436 0.11832001 53 4.024 -3 0.1 53 5.891 -2.2 0.111 ### 4 -3
-1.2484 0.28696339 31 6.863 -2 0.2 31 8.576 -1.28 0.277 ### 7 -1
-2.25518 0.10485515 56 3.675 -3 0.1 56 5.496 -2.32 0.098 ### 4 -3
-2.27531 0.10276496 56.5 3.618 -3 0.1 56.5 5.432 -2.34 0.096 ### 4 -3
-1.5907 0.20378209 39.5 5.783 -2 0.1 39.5 7.683 -1.64 0.195 ### 6 -2
-3.66466 0.02561288 91 1.088 -4 0 91 2.093 -3.77 0.023 ### 1 -4
-2.29545 0.10071643 57 3.563 -3 0.1 57 5.367 -2.36 0.094 ### 4 -3
-3.14114 0.04323361 78 1.755 -4 0 78 3.076 -3.23 0.039 ### 2 -4
-1.97328 0.1390004 49 4.52 -2 0.1 49 6.428 -2 0.131 ### 5 -2

7.3166694 186 5.4 263 7 ###


exp(-x
b" = xi exp(-x
(-xexp(-x
b" = xi exp(-x
(-xexp(-x
b" = xi exp(-x
(-xexp(-x
b" = xi exp(-x
(-xi exp(-x
b" = xi exp(-x
### 23.6############ 21.4############ 23.3############ 21.7 ### 6.8 ### 0.6 23.0######
0 ### 8### 0 ### 7 -2 0 ### 8 -1 0 34 7 -2 0.2 ### 8
0 ### 4### 0 ### 3 -3 0 ### 4 -3 0 63 4 -3 0.1 ### 4
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 56 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 57 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 7### 0 ### 6 -2 0 ### 7 -2 0 43 6 -2 0.1 ### 7
0 ### 6### 0 ### 5 -2 0 ### 6 -2 0 49 5 -2 0.1 ### 6
0 ### 7### 0 ### 6 -2 0 ### 7 -2 0 45 6 -2 0.1 ### 6
0 ### 1### 0 ### 1 -5 0 ### 1 -4 0 ### 1 -5 0 ### 1
0 ### 1### 0 ### 1 -5 0 ### 1 -4 0 ### 1 -5 0 ### 1
0 ### 4### 0 ### 3 -3 0 ### 4 -3 0 66 3 -3 0 ### 4
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 58 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 4### 0 ### 3 -3 0 ### 3 -3 0 70 3 -3 0 ### 3
0 ### 9 -1 0 ### 8 -1 0 ### 8 -1 0 19 8 -1 0.4 ### 8
0 ### 6### 0 ### 4 -2 0 ### 5 -2 0 53 5 -2 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 7### 0 ### 6 -2 0 ### 7 -2 0 43 6 -2 0.1 ### 7
0 ### 6### 0 ### 5 -2 0 ### 6 -2 0 50 5 -2 0.1 ### 6
0 ### 4### 0 ### 3 -3 0 ### 4 -3 0 68 3 -3 0 ### 4
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 57 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 1### 0 ### 0 -6 0 ### 1 -5 0 ### 0.4 -6 0 ### 1
0 ### 2### 0 ### 1 -4 0 ### 2 -4 0 88 2 -4 0 ### 2

0 ### 4### 0 ### 3 -3 0 ### 3 -3 0 70 3 -3 0 ### 3


0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 54 4 -2 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 6### 0 ### 4 -2 0 ### 5 -2 0 53 5 -2 0.1 ### 5

0 ### 4### 0 ### 3 -3 0 ### 4 -3 0 68 3 -3 0 ### 4


1 ### 7 0 1 ### 6 0 1 ### 7 0 1 10 6 0 1 ### 6
0 ### 6### 0 ### 5 -2 0 ### 6 -2 0 47 5 -2 0.1 ### 6
0 ### 4### 0 ### 3 -3 0 ### 4 -3 0 63 3 -3 0.1 ### 4
0 ### 2### 0 ### 1 -4 0 ### 2 -4 0 88 2 -4 0 ### 2
0 ### 1### 0 ### 0 -6 0 ### 0 -6 0 ### 0.3 -6 0 ### 0
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -3 0 59 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 3### 0 ### 2 -3 0 ### 3 -3 0 73 3 -3 0 ### 3
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 58 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 8### 0 ### 7 -2 0 ### 8 -1 0 33 7 -2 0.2 ### 8
0 ### 4### 0 ### 3 -3 0 ### 4 -3 0 65 3 -3 0.1 ### 4
0 ### 1### 0 ### 1 -5 0 ### 1 -4 0 ### 1 -5 0 ### 1
0 ### 8### 0 ### 6 -2 0 ### 7 -2 0 38 7 -2 0.2 ### 7
0 ### 6### 0 ### 5 -2 0 ### 6 -2 0 52 5 -2 0.1 ### 5
1 ### 7 -1 1 ### 7 -1 1 ### 7 -1 1 13 7 -1 1 ### 7
0 ### 8### 0 ### 7 -2 0 ### 8 -2 0 35 7 -2 0.2 ### 8
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 55 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 6### 0 ### 4 -2 0 ### 5 -2 0 53 5 -2 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 8### 0 ### 7 -1 0 ### 8 -1 0 31 7 -1 0.2 ### 8
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 56 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 57 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 7### 0 ### 6 -2 0 ### 7 -2 0 40 6 -2 0.2 ### 7
0 ### 2### 0 ### 1 -4 0 ### 2 -4 0 91 1 -4 0 ### 2
0 ### 5### 0 ### 4 -3 0 ### 5 -2 0 57 4 -3 0.1 ### 5
0 ### 3### 0 ### 2 -4 0 ### 3 -3 0 78 2 -4 0 ### 3
0 ### 6### 0 ### 5 -2 0 ### 6 -2 0 49 5 -2 0.1 ### 6

6 ### 7 ### 6 ### 7 ### 6 ###


(-xexp(-x
b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" =
###### 21.9 22.9 22.1 22.7 22.2 22.6 22.2 22.6 22.3 22.5 22.3 22.5
-1 0
-3 0
-2 0
-2 0
-2 0
-2 0
-2 0
-4 0
-4 0
-3 0
-3 0
-3 0
-1 0
-2 0
-2 0
-2 0
-3 0
-2 0
-5 0
-4 0

-3 0
-2 0
-2 0

-3 0
0 1
-2 0
-3 0
-4 0
-6 0
-3 0
-3 0
-3 0
-1 0
-3 0
-4 0
-2 0
-2 0
-1 1
-2 0
-2 0
-2 0
-1 0
-2 0
-2 0
-2 0
-4 0
-2 0
-3 0
-2 0

7
b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = b" = xi exp(-xi (-xi / b")
22.4 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.4 11.6 6.918776 -0.51677
34 7.476022 -1.51466
62.5 3.860766 -2.7843
55.5 4.682929 -2.47246
57 4.498612 -2.53928
42.5 6.399241 -1.89332
48.5 5.589816 -2.16062
45 6.061552 -2.0047
103 1.047285 -4.58853
101 1.122648 -4.49943
66 3.488364 -2.94022
58 4.378087 -2.58383
70 3.095899 -3.11842
19.3 8.168726 -0.85979
52.9 5.011679 -2.35663
42.8 6.358858 -1.90669
50.1 5.376972 -2.2319
67.6 3.327124 -3.0115
56.8 4.522947 -2.53037
123.8 0.498338 -5.51514
87.7 1.762954 -3.90693

70 3.095899 -3.11842
54.1 4.858566 -2.41009
53 4.998834 -2.36109

67.5 3.337035 -3.00704


10 6.405115 -0.44549
47 5.79128 -2.09379
63 3.805926 -2.80658
88 1.7455 -3.9203
130.5 0.389751 -5.81362
59 4.259524 -2.62838
73 2.824683 -3.25206
58 4.378087 -2.58383
33.3 7.554035 -1.48348
65 3.592019 -2.89567
101 1.122648 -4.49943
38 6.991752 -1.69285
52 5.127947 -2.31654
12.5 7.162567 -0.55686
35 7.360586 -1.55921
54.5 4.808044 -2.42791
53 4.998834 -2.36109
31 7.791037 -1.38101
56 4.621032 -2.49473
56.5 4.55959 -2.51701
39.5 6.79796 -1.75968
91 1.579198 -4.05394
57 4.498612 -2.53928
78 2.415488 -3.47481
49 5.52304 -2.18289
0
0
0
0
226.0422
n/exp(-xi/b") =
ln [ n/exp(-xi/b") ] =
exp(-xi / b") b" =
0.596446192 22.4
0.219883
0.061772259
0.084377103
0.078923013
0.150570388
0.11525393
0.134701151
0.010167816
0.011115328
0.052854007
0.075484251
0.044227124
0.423250059
0.09473874
0.148571455
0.107324792
0.049217804
0.07962934
0.004025351
0.020102099

0.044227124
0.089807134
0.094317629

0.049437552
0.640511538
0.123218722
0.060411529
0.019835229
0.002986598
0.07219532
0.038694282
0.075484251
0.226847902
0.055261825
0.011115328
0.183993482
0.098614364
0.573005376
0.210302459
0.088220988
0.094317629
0.251323771
0.082518431
0.080700701
0.172100242
0.017353829
0.078923013
0.030967794
0.112715097

6.24204434
8.010196224
2.080715258
Rang r xi exp(-xi / b") exp(-xi / b")
b'' N Annes P(mm)
22.43 1 1959 10 1 6.4023455049 0.6402345505
2 1931 11.6 2 6.9153052268 0.5961470023
3 1973 12.5 3 7.1586956209 0.5726956497
4 1944 19.3 4 8.1619097092 0.4228968761
5 1981 31 5 7.7805970909 0.2509870029
6 1967 33.3 6 7.5431624502 0.2265213949
7 1932 34 7 7.4650355775 0.2195598699
8 1974 35 8 7.3494513583 0.2099843245
9 1971 38 9 6.980269722 0.1836913085
10 1984 39.5 10 6.7863549258 0.1718064538
11 1936 42.5 11 6.3874885712 0.1502938487
12 1946 42.8 12 6.3470971865 0.1482966632
13 1938 45 13 6.0497648829 0.1344392196
14 1960 47 14 5.7795185535 0.1229684799
15 1937 48.5 15 5.5781014553 0.1150124011
16 1988 49 16 5.5113463692 0.1124764565
17 1947 50.1 17 5.3653326513 0.1070924681
18 1972 52 18 5.1164260517 0.0983928087
19 1945 52.9 19 5.0002250289 0.0945222123
20 1954 53 20 4.9873877966 0.0941016565
21 1979 53 21 4.9873877966 0.0941016565
22 1953 54.1 22 4.8472100017 0.0895972274
23 1978 54.5 23 4.7967229714 0.0880132655
24 1934 55.5 24 4.6717008874 0.0841747908
25 1982 56 25 4.6098524816 0.0823187943
26 1983 56.5 26 4.5484602542 0.0805037213
27 1949 56.8 27 4.5118480513 0.0794339446
28 1935 57 28 4.4875341575 0.0787286694
29 1986 57 29 4.4875341575 0.0787286694
30 1942 58 30 4.3671168853 0.0752951187
31 1966 58 31 4.3671168853 0.0752951187
32 1964 59 32 4.2486675011 0.0720113136
33 1933 62.5 33 3.850343164 0.0616054906
34 1961 63 34 3.7955693018 0.0602471318
35 1968 65 35 3.5819337916 0.0551066737
36 1941 66 36 3.4784201941 0.0527033363
37 1955 67.5 37 3.3273060303 0.0492934227
38 1948 67.6 38 3.3174093266 0.0490741025
39 1943 70 39 3.0865391581 0.0440934165
40 1952 70 40 3.0865391581 0.0440934165
41 1965 73 41 2.8157775591 0.0385722953
42 1987 78 42 2.4073522368 0.0308634902
43 1951 87.7 43 1.7562792262 0.0200259889
44 1962 88 44 1.7388688051 0.0197598728
45 1985 91 45 1.5729947342 0.0172856564
46 1940 101 46 1.1177543212 0.0110668745
47 1969 101 47 1.1177543212 0.0110668745
48 1939 103 48 1.0426295511 0.010122617
49 1950 123.8 49 0.4956770291 0.0040038532
50 1963 130.5 50 0.3875572467 0.0029697873
Moyenne 58.62 225.5736729201 6.2322772389

Xm=A3+(D53/E53) 58.62 Cell to be defined


Xm=1/( n) Xi 58.62 value to be achieved

n/exp(-xi/b") =
ln [ n/exp(-xi/b") ] =

b" =xm - [ xi exp(-xi/b")/exp(-xi/b") ]


Cell to be def 58.62 Cell to be defined
a" =b" ln [ 1/exp(-xi/b") ] Value to be a 58.62 value to be achieved
Cell to be mod22.4255127533
xq = a + b uq
uq = (xq-a)/b T= 1/(1- F(x))

Priode de retour T= 2
Frquence de non dpassement F(x)=1-(1/T) 0.5
uq =-Ln(-Ln(F(x)) 0.37
Pj max = xq = 54.92
P(24h,T) = 1,15*Pj max 63
F(x) Variable Pjmax
empirique rduite uq empirique(Xq)
0.01 -1.5271796258 12.4484376894
0.03 -1.2546349003 18.5603929075
0.05 -1.0971887004 22.0912046718
0.07 -0.9780479025 24.762998154
0.09 -0.8787739394 26.9892676788
0.11 -0.7917586837 28.9406294053
160
0.13 -0.7130580513 30.7055314419
Loi de Gumbel

Pj max(mm)
0.15 -0.6403369388 32.336339678 f(x) = 22.4255127533x
140 + 46.6962238646
0.17 -0.5720844963 33.8669356965 R = 1
0.19 -0.5072579914 35.3207033088 120
0.21 -0.4451009583 36.7146066471 100
0.23 -0.385041948 38.06146075
0.25 -0.32663426 39.3712831018 80
0.27 -0.2695180916 40.6521424635
0.29 -0.2133956796 41.9107163299 60
0.31 -0.1580143333 43.152671418 40
0.33 -0.1031544461 44.382932517
0.35 -0.0486207446 45.6058787369 20
0.37 0.0057643084 46.8254914362
0
0.39 0.0601656536 48.0454694958
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
0.41 0.1147397868 49.2693224178 Variable reduce
0.43 0.1696382468 50.5004485305
0.45 0.225010673 51.7422035822
0.47 0.2810076172 52.9979637685
0.49 0.3377832526 54.2711865036
0.51 0.3954981141 55.5654718669
0.53 0.4543219954 56.8846275669
0.55 0.5144371362 58.2327404226
0.57 0.5760418533 59.614257793
0.59 0.6393548015 61.0340831202
0.61 0.7046200999 62.4976909011
0.63 0.7721136385 64.0112681111
0.65 0.8421509907 65.5818916473
0.67 0.9150975275 67.2177551388
0.69 0.9913815832 68.9284642009
0.71 1.0715119167 70.7254280184
0.73 1.1561013324 72.6223890379
0.75 1.2458993237 74.6361550377
0.77 1.3418382836 76.7876354065
0.79 1.4451007195 79.1033484799
0.81 1.5572201468 81.6176841253
0.83 1.6802382475 84.3764281128
0.85 1.8169607948 87.4425013402
0.87 1.9713977444 90.9058291244
0.89 2.1495737798 94.9015180778
0.91 2.3611608458 99.6464665245
0.93 2.6231941186 105.522697026
0.95 2.970195249 113.3043753018
0.97 3.4913669501 124.99191793
0.99 4.6001492268 149.856929017
n 50
b'' 22.43 Cell to be modified
a'' 46.70
a'' 45.68 To be eliminated

8.022749644
2.082281212

to be defined
ue to be achieved

5 10 100
0.8 0.9 0.99
1.50 2.25 4.60
80.33 97.16 149.86
92 112 172
e962238646
Gumbel

1 2 3 4 5
ariable reduce
STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENT - GUMBEL LAW -

F(x) = exp( -exp - (x-a)/b))

The reduced variable u = (x - a)/b

F(x) = exp (-exp - u)

xq = a + b uq

We look for the values a and b

According to the method of moments:

Average xm = 1/( n)
Standard deviation = 1/n

b" =6/ x
a" = xm - b" = 0.5772 Constant d'Euler

After the maximum likelihood method:

b" =xm - [ xi exp(-xi/b")/exp(-xi/b") ]

Equation Solved iteratively

a" =b" ln [ n/exp(-xi/b") ]


BEL LAW -

xi
(xi - xm)

Constant d'Euler