Marine scientists from the International Programme on the State of the

Ocean (IPSO) have warned that global seas are degrading increasingly
quickly, at a rate never before seen.

According to their new report, oceans are absorbing much of the warming
that the planet is experiencing, as well as high levels of carbon dioxide
(CO2). These factors, combined with destructive overfishing and high levels
of pollution, are seriously damaging the state of the ocean.

Prof Alex Rogers, scientific director of IPSO, said, The health of the ocean is
spiraling downwards far more rapidly than we had thought. We are seeing
greater change, happening faster, and the effects are more imminent than
previously anticipated.

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UNESCO Event Will Highlight Ocean Importance

Study: worlds oceans facing irreversible damage without climate
action
Climate change records support predictions, say scientists
Oceans acidifying at unprecedented rate, says chief scientist
Climate change is the biggest threat to Great Barrier Reef

The situation should be of the gravest concern to everyone since everyone

will be affected by changes in the ability of the ocean to support life on
Earth.

Scientists identified a deadly trio of phenomena, formed by acidification

caused by the excess of CO2 warming linked to climate change and de-
oxygenation, a process that is partly caused by global warming in tropical
oceans and partly by eutrophication due to nutrient runoff from agriculture
and sewage.

Overfishing is also contributing to damage the oceans health, disrupting the

food chain and altering the balance of the marine environment. According to
the report, Fisheries management is still failing to halt the decline of key
species and damage to the ecosystems on which marine life depend.

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Scientists suggest that the only way to slowdown the decline is to seriously
tackle CO2 emissions a measure urged also by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report- in order to contrast the
warming and acidification. Large scale fisheries should be drastically
downsize, canceling subsidies and banning the most destructive techniques.

In July, a study revealed that creating a network of 127 marine conservation

zones around the UK would bring significant economic return up to as
much as 3.39 billion per year while allowing such places to degrade would
be costly in the long-term.
This article originally appeared at Ensia and is part of the 2050 series.
Oceans cover more than two-thirds of Earths surface. They are home to millions
of species, provide a key source of protein to people on every continent and play
an enormous role in regulating our planets climate, water cycle and more.
They also are facing tremendous disruption from human action, from altered
temperature and circulation to overfishing to acidification to plastic pollution.
What kind of oceans will we pass along to future generations of humans and
other living things? The answer to that question starts with two others: What
kind of oceans would we like to pass along? And what would it take to do so?
For this fourth installment of our Envision 2050 series (read the first three here),
Ensia asked seven individuals with special connections to the ocean to share their
hopes for the worlds oceans and what it would take to achieve them. Here
are their responses:

Margaret Leinen: Keep learning

Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego

Put simply, the oceans are key to the future of our planet and its health.
My hope is that by 2050 we can all look back and say that in 2015 we began to
make the serious changes necessary to address and even reverse the
challenges facing the oceans: pollution; rising seas; ocean warming; oxygen
depletion; and acidification, to name a few. These issues are not isolated in their
reach. The food and precious resources the oceans provide to global society have
been bountiful, but we see them diminishing. We must act strategically going
forward. It serves all of us, as a global society, to maintain the stability of the
oceans as a natural system.
My colleagues at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, and across
the oceanographic and earth science communities have employed instruments
and observation networks to explore the oceans and track the troubling trends
afflicting the oceans habitats, from coral reefs in decline to low-oxygen zones
that choke out productive ecosystems.
One urgent area of concern is the worlds rising seas. No longer an issue isolated
to far-off island nations, sea-level rise will be a sobering wake-up call for many in
our crowded coastal cities by 2050. We must act now to develop adaptation
solutions for the global community. We at Scripps are working with the worlds
leading thinkers and researchers to share knowledge and develop sea-level rise
solutions. From these efforts we look to develop a plan of action to help cities
and states adapt to rising seas.
By 2050 our seas will be viewed as more than a platform for tourism and
recreation and rather an ocean for solutions. Our sustainable energy solutions
will be aided by marine algaederived biofuel, while new medicines to treat
modern diseases will be derived from sea creatures with novel chemical
structures.
There is still so much we dont know. We need to keep learning about our water
world, especially the deep sea and the immense role of the oceans in global
climate change.
All of us need to do our part. We are all stewards of the ocean and the planet.
We must continue to explore. We must continue to study the things we dont yet
understand and protect the resources we have for future generations.
Shared oceans, protected by all, hold the solutions for the planets future.

Michael Conathan: Promoting a robust blue economy

Director of ocean policy, Center for American Progress

While humans rely on the ocean to support our existence, we must learn to use
the maritime domain in ways that reverse the global decline in ocean health and
ensure that the oceans bounty is available for future generations. One way the
United States already has begun to do this is through ocean planning, an idea
similar to traditional land use planning.
The National Ocean Policy established by President Barack Obama provides U.S.
regions with support to develop regional ocean plans that empower local ocean
stakeholders to represent their interests in decision making. Other nations,
including China, Australia, the Philippines and various European nations, have
implemented similar practices.
Yet, to truly achieve a sustainable vision for the future of the worlds oceans, we
must go beyond simple spatial planning. The ocean provides a great deal more
than fish, fossil fuels and free trade. This generations legacy must include
protecting and restoring robust, functioning marine ecosystems.
The oceans make the planets climate livable, absorbing 90 percent of the
additional heattrapped by our ever-thickening atmospheric blanket of carbon
pollution. They generate more than half of the oxygen we breathe. And they
serve as the primary source of protein for over a billion people.
As oceans warm and acidify as a result of runaway carbon pollution, we put all of
these ecosystem benefits at risk. Yet none of them will continue unless we
incorporate their financial worth into the cost of doing business.
Putting a price tag on the value of a healthy marine environment will help
political and business leaders arrive at more efficient and more sustainable
decisions and develop a new blue economy that links economic growth with
ocean health. Moving development away from the dirty industries of the past
that profit from degrading our natural resources and toward a future that
promotes efficiency and environmental stewardship can be a win for the planet
and our pocketbooks.

Alexandra Cousteau: Abundance, diversity, purity

Explorer, filmmaker and water advocate

Agencia de Noticias ANDES

My vision for the oceans in 2050 is one of abundance, diversity, purity. While
most predictions point to a darker future for the oceans, I do believe that it is
possible to have more fish, sea turtles, dolphins, whales and sharks in our
lifetimes. But we have to start acting now. Scientists report that the amount of
fish caught began declining for the first time in recorded history just a few
decades ago. Thats obviously bad news, but it is also recent news. If we take
action quickly, we can have a huge effect on helping the oceans rebound.
The Cousteau family has been chronicling the stories of the oceans for three
generations. Weve seen the changes, weve told the stories. Yet in spite of all
the damage that humankind has done to the oceans, I remain optimistic. The
oceans are a shared resource covering 71 percent of the planet.
They play a central role in the worlds natural systems, such as regulating our
climate and absorbing carbon dioxide. Over a billion people, including some of
the poorest in the world, depend on the oceans and wild seafood for survival.
Restoring abundance to the worlds fisheries is important not only for the planet
but also for the people who live on it. To that end, I have taken action with [the
international organization] Oceana to tackle these issues by focusing on the
importance of science in identifying problems and solutions.
We need to accomplish three goals: stop overfishing; reduce bycatch; and
protect marine habitat. Scientists working closely with economists, lawyers and
policy experts can achieve tangible results for the oceans. Examples in the
Philippines and other countries have demonstrated how to rebuild fish
populations: avoid overfishing by setting responsible catch limits; minimize the
capture of vulnerable animals such as turtles or juvenile fish; and protect habitat.
With science-based management in place, the fish, the ecosystem they depend
on and the people whose livelihoods depend on both will rebound. By promoting
responsible fishing practices, we can protect the oceans while helping to reduce
poverty in coastal communities. If we can save the oceans, we can help feed the
world.

David Sheppard: Rays of Hope

Director-general, secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme

Its easy to be pessimistic about the future of the worlds oceans. The 20th
century lay to rest myths that the oceans were so vast and their living resources
so huge that human activities never could make a significant impact. Instead, we
saw destruction in the stocks of the great whales, the collapse of numerous
fisheries as more fishing vessels poured onto the seas with increasingly
sophisticated technologies, and the creation of dead zones as industrial effluents
smothered and poisoned previously rich, productive waters.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report offers little
reassurance. Half of all carbon dioxide emissions since 1750 came in the last 40
years with oceans absorbing 90 percent of the resulting heat energy, setting in
temperature rises and ocean acidification that will continue for decades even if
emissions ceased tomorrow. At current rates, shallow water tropical coral reefs
will have vanished by 2050 along with a myriad of species and food for millions
of people.
But there are rays of hope especially in the Pacific island countries and
territories with enormous Exclusive Economic Zones effectively making them
Large Ocean States with stewardship responsibilities for over 10 percent of the
global ocean. Large Marine Protected Areas in the Phoenix Islands of Kiribati and
the Coral Sea of New Caledonia protect over 580,000 square miles, and a
sophisticated planning exercise is underway to protect most of the 420,000-
square-mile Cook Islands Marine Park.
Palau is banning foreign fishing fleets from its 230,000-square-mile EEZ, and
shark sanctuaries have been established in the waters of the Marshall Islands,
federated states of Micronesia, Palau, Cook Islands and Tokelau.
Alone, these bold actions wont prevent the overwhelming impacts of climate
change, but by reducing key stressors such as overfishing, habitat loss and
inappropriate development, they give marine biodiversity a better chance. They
act as a signal of hope: If developing countries can set aside vast tracts of ocean
for conservation, then developed countries also can take a similar approach for
the benefit of future generations.

Susan Avery: A key cog

President and director, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Tom Kleindinst, WHOI

I bring an atmospheric scientists perspective to the study of the ocean. In many

ways the ocean community is positioned to do what atmospheric scientists did in
the 1950s when they established a network of weather stations. This network
dramatically expanded our predictive capabilities to the benefit of any weather-
sensitive business or human endeavor.
Our planet is a complex dynamic system of interactions among the atmosphere,
ocean, land surface, snow and ice, and all life on Earth. In that planetary
clockworks, the ocean is a key cog. It drives heat, water and nutrients around
the globe. It maintains essential ecosystems. In short, it makes our planet
habitable.
We know the ocean is changing rapidly. It is warming, becoming more acidic and
losing sea ice. Sea levels are rising. It is overfished and more polluted by
chemicals and noise. These changes will have impacts on agriculture, fisheries,
water, food, energy supplies, coastal infrastructure, transportation and natural
disasters such as tsunamis and extreme weather all of which profoundly affect
our economy, health, welfare and security.
At the same time, many nations are developing blue economies expanding
into the ocean not only to extract resources such as fish, minerals and oil and
gas, but also for aquaculture, bioprospecting, offshore renewable energy and
other economic opportunities.
In my vision of the ocean in 2050, governments are investing in research and
development to establish long-term observatories with sensors to monitor ocean
conditions and collect the data necessary to help us understand our changing
ocean.
Right now the future of the ocean is uncertain, which means our future is
uncertain. With greater global investment in research, exploration and
innovation, we can reduce uncertainties, improve projections about future
conditions for our ocean and planet and provide information that governments,
resource managers, businesses and others can use to save lives, property and
money, and to sustain the ocean as a resource.
We can improve governance of the ocean and of the entire planetary commons
and help ensure our survival.

Douglas McCauley: Managing change

Ecologist and conservation biologist, UC Santa Barbara

The decisions we make in the next several decades more profoundly will shape
the future of the ocean than any other period in human history. In a recent
report, my colleagues and I showed that the oceans are in vastly better shape
than terrestrial ecosystems. This makes sense: humans are a terrestrial species
and historically it has been harder for us hunt, farm and build in the ocean. But
things are changing.
We must address three major challenges in the next 30 years if we wish to
preserve the health and wildness of our global oceans.
1. Marine industrialization
A marine industrial revolution (alternatively called an emerging blue economy) is
welling up in our oceans and represents a dramatic shift in the way we do marine
business. Historically we went to sea to fish. By 2050, we are poised to see
massive expansions in marine industries such as seabed mining, underwater
power plant construction (offshore wind, tidal energy) and oil/gas extraction. On
land when we shifted from hunting animals to building our industries in their
habitats, we saw a major spike in wildlife extinction. If we dont carefully plan out
marine industrialization, we may face a similar fate for ocean wildlife.
2. Fishing vs. farming in the oceans
The Food and Agriculture Organization predicts (PDF) that in less than 20 years
fish farming will put more fish on our tables than wild-capture fisheries. We have
to carefully ensure this explosive growth in ocean farming happens in a clean,
healthy and sustainable way. In parallel to this growth in aquaculture, we must
redouble our efforts to be sure that wild fisheries can continue to provide healthy
free-range fish by setting aside ocean protected areas and coming up with novel
solutions for managing the lawlessness associated with fishing in many settings
(such as the high seas).
3. Ocean climate change
None of these actions will have purchase if we dont slow the rates by which we
are warming and acidifying the oceans. Many marine species have demonstrated
a very encouraging capacity for adaptation to climate stressors. Anything we can
do to slow carbon emissions will buy them time to adapt.
By squarely facing the urgency of the situation in the oceans and prudently
managing these new forces of change, we can chart a brighter future for life in
the oceans and can avoid making many of the environmental mistakes we made
on land.

David Agnew: Sustainable fishing

Standards director, Marine Stewardship Council

Oceans are like the heartbeat of our planet. They connect us across continents,
regulate our climate, supply us with oxygen and serve as the foundation of
ecosystems for an incredible array of wildlife. More than 200 million people
depend on the oceans for their livelihood and 3 billion rely on it for nutrition,
making oceans crucial to our very existence. But our oceans are under enormous
pressure. Fishing in a sustainable manner is critical to the health of this vast
natural resource. It is our vision at the Marine Stewardship Council to see our
oceans healthy and teeming with life, safeguarded for future generations.
We need to appreciate this important global resource, work together to provide
solutions to overfishing and care for the oceans as they are fundamental to the
health and well-being of our world and population. We can all start by
recognizing and rewarding sustainable fishing practices and choosing to buy and
eat seafood sourced from sustainable and well-managed fisheries, such as
seafood products with the MSC ecolabel.
The more we learn about the issues facing our oceans, the more well want to
help ensure the health and vitality of this resource and then share that
knowledge to inspire others to do the same. We are all connected, and we can
each make a difference and contribute to the health of the worlds oceans for this
and future generations.
Forest fragmentation is a form of habitat
fragmentation where forests are reduced (either naturally or
man-made) to relatively small, isolated patches of forest known
as forest fragments or forestremnants.

How to Conserve Forest Resources?

(8 Steps)

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Some of the steps we can take to conserve our forest resources are
as follows:
1. Regulated and Planned Cutting of Trees:
One of the main reasons of deforestation is commercial felling of trees.
According to an estimate, about 1,600 million cubic metres of wood have
been used for various purposes in the world. Although trees are considered
as perennial resource, when exploited on a very large scale, their revival
cannot be possible.

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Therefore, cutting should be regulated by adopting methods like:

(i) Clear cutting,

(ii) Selective cutting, and

(iii) Shelter wood cutting.

The clear cutting method is useful for those areas where the same types of
trees are available over a large area. In that case, trees of same age group
can be cut down in a selected area and then marked for replantation. In
selective cutting only mature trees are selected for cutting. This process is
to be followed in rotation. Sheker wood cutting is where first of all useless
trees are cut down followed by medium and best quality timber trees.
ADVERTISEMENTS:

The time gap between these cuttings is helpful in re-growth of trees. In

regulated cutting only one-tenth of the forest area is selected for use and
rotational system is always followed for their protection. The forest can be
managed in such a way that a timber crop may be harvested indefinitely
year after year without being depleted. This technique is called the
sustained yield method adopted by many countries.

2. Control over Forest Fire:

Destruction or loss of forest by fire is fairly common; because trees are
highly exposed to fire and once started it becomes difficult to control.
Sometimes, the fire starts by natural process, i.e., by lightning or by friction
between trees during speedy winds, while in most cases it is also by man
either intentionally or unintentionally.

According to an estimate, during the period from 1940 to 1950, in the US

alone, fires consumed an average of 21.5 million acres of timber yearly and
as many as 1,175,664 cases of forest fires occurred during 1955 to 1964
period. In US forests fire is very common and a main cause of the loss of
forest.

Throughout the world forest fire is common and in most cases they were
begun by man. As John D. Guthrie, former fire inspector of US Forest
Service has written: To stage a forest fire you need only few things a
forest, the right atmospheric conditions, and a spark either from a lightning
bolt or a match in the hands of a fool or a knave. The formula is simple the
larger the forest, the drier the air, the bigger the fool, the bigger the fire you
will have.

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In order to save forests from fire, it is necessary to adopt latest techniques

of fire fighting. Some of the fire suppression techniques are to develop
three metre wide fire lanes around the periphery of the fire, back fires,
arrangement of water spray, fire retardant chemicals should be sprayed
from back tank and if possible by helicopters. There must be trained staff of
fire fighters to control the fire.
3. Reforestation and Afforestation:
The sustained yield concept dictates that whenever timber is removed,
either by block cutting or by selective cutting, the denuded area must be
reforested. This may be done by natural or artificial methods. Similarly, any
forested land, which has been destroyed by fire or mining activities, should
be reforested. In rugged terrain aerial seeding is the method of choice.

Besides all this, fresh afforestation programmes should be started. New

plantations will not only increase the forest cover but also help in making up
the eco-balance. For afforestation, selection of trees should be done
according to local geographical conditions and care must be taken during
initial growth of the trees.

4. Check over Forest Clearance for Agricultural and Habitation

Purposes:
Most of the present-day agricultural land was once forested and then
cleared for the use of agriculture. But now it has reached the stage where
further clearance will be dangerous for the entire ecosystem. There are
tribals in some parts of Asia, Africa and South America, where shifting
cultivation is still a part of their system of land procurement.

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According to an estimate, about 40 million sq km of land is used for this

purpose by 200 million tribals of the world. For the conservation of forests,
this should be checked and an alternative method should be devised.
Similarly, for the development of villages, towns and cities, forest lands
have been cleared and this process continues to this day causing loss of
forest cover. This also should be checked and green belts around cities be
developed.

5. Protection of Forests:
The existing forests should be protected. Apart from commercial cutting,
unorganised grazing is also one of the reasons. There are several forest
diseases resulting from parasitic fungi, rusts, mistletoes, viruses and
nematodes which cause the destruction of trees. The forests should be
protected either by use of chemical spray, antibiotics or by development of
disease resistant strains of trees.
6. Proper Utilisation of Forest and Forests Products:
Generally, trees are cut for logs and the rest, including stump, limbs,
branches and foliage, etc., is left out as worthless debris. Further waste
occurs at the saw mills. There is thus need to utilise this waste material.
Today, several uses have been developed and products like waterproof
glues, boar r etc., can be obtained.

Similarly, forests can be used or developed as tourist centres. By using

them as tourist centres the country can earn substantial foreign exchange.
This practice has been adopted by many countries, both developed and
developing. The concepts of national park and game sanctuary have now
become popular and every country has developed its unique forest area as
a national park. In India alone, there are as many as 92 national parks and
game sanctuaries. This is a good method of forest conservation.

7. Role of Government in Forest Conservation:

Although the government of every country is very particular about
conservation of its forest resources and has several rules and laws for the
protection of forests but, they are not implement in an effective manner.

Both national and provincial governments can take some steps in this
direction, such as:
(i) Pass acts for the conservation of forests,

(ii) Survey of the forest resources,

(iii) Categorization of forest areas and proper delimitation of reserved forest

areas,

(iv) Find out the areas where reforestation can be done,

(v) Regulate the commercial use of forest products,

(vi) Protect forest from fire, mining and other natural calamities,

(vii) Develop national parks,

(viii) Encourage forests developmental activities like social forestry, agro-

forestry, etc., and
(ix) Prepare master plans, both for long-term and short-term period, etc.

8. Forest Management:
Management of forest resources is the key to all conservation efforts.
In forest management, the following aspects should be taken into
consideration:
(i) Survey of forest,

(ii) Categorisation of forest.

(iii) Economic use of forest,

(iv) Administrative setting for forest management,

(v) Training programmes for persons engaged in forest conservation

activities,

(vi) Use of forest land as tourist centers,

(vii) Social and agro-forestry,

(viii) Development of new techniques for the conservation of forests,

(ix) Research for efficient use and conservation of forest, and

(x) Policy decisions and their proper implementation.

In brief, conservation of forest resources can be done by cooperative

efforts of the government, non-government organisations and the public
through a proper management system.
Global warming
Introduction and meaning: The rise in earths surface temperature as a
consequence of greenhouse effect is called Global Warming.

The greenhouse gases such as carbon-dioxide and other pollutants absorbs more
heat from the sun then it radiates back. This causes an increase in the intensity of
heat in atmosphere.

The thickening of earth atmosphere because of presence of increased carbon

dioxide and other greenhouse gases is called greenhouse effect.

What causes Global Warming?

1. Deforestation and industrial emissions result to an increase greenhouse

gases (such as carbon-dioxide) around earths atmosphere.

2. These greenhouse gases traps and absorbs atmospheric heat and ultimately
causes Global warming (an increase earths surface temperature).

Effects / Impact of Global Warming

If Global warming continues the world would be in danger. The major effects and
impacts of Global Warming are:

1. Climate Change: Global warming is causing climate change. The worlds is

becoming warmer and warmer. There is also prediction of regional climate changes
along the ecosystem.

2. Sea Level Change: One major consequence of global warming arising out of
greenhouse effect is the rise in sea level. Four major changes take place prior to
this. They are: Thermal expansion, mountain glacier melting, Greenland ice sheet
melting and Polar (Arctic and Antarctic) ice sheet melting. Thus, the coastal cities
and ports may be submerged under sea-water. Many islands may vanish from the
earth surface as well as from the world map.

3. Water Balance: Although changes in sea-level have received much publicity,

problems of water availability are likely to be more serious and perhaps more
expensive to solve. In future, warmer world will face water crisis in some parts while
in other regions it will be wetter than it is now.

There is uncertainty regarding regional forecasts of future precipitation as warming of

globe makes it difficult to predict. Also, pattern of agricultural changes, or effects on
ecosystems in general are fairly unpredictable.
4. Human Health: The human health is put at risk because of Global warming. In
recent years, there have been newer reports of spread of major tropical diseases
with changing climate. As the earth becomes warmer, more and more people are
likely to be affected by tropical diseases.

How to prevent Global Warming?

The problem of Global Warming can be controlled by minimizing the emission of

greenhouse gases into the environment. The following preventive steps would help
save the earth from the harmful effects of Global Warming.

1. Laws. The Laws that governs pollution and greenhouse gases should be followed.
2. Reduction in thermal power generating stations. Reduced dependence on thermal
power for our electricity need would help towards reducing the quantity if carbon
dioxide in the environment. The use of fossil fuels for generating conventional energy
is a major of greenhouse gases.
3. We should not waste paper. We can save paper by keeping documents in electronic
format and by not printing emails.
4. Planting Trees. Trees absorb carbon dioxide and releases oxygen. Trees are helpful
in reducing the problem of global warming.
5. Sharing our car. We can share our car while going to office or performing other
scheduled activities. On one hand, we will save money, and on the other, we will emit
less greenhouse gases.
Environmental issues are very harmful on human activity and also on biophysical environment.
Environmentalism is a social and environmental movement and it acts on environmental issues.
To reduce or prevent effect of environmental issues Sustainability is the important key. Causes
for environmental issues are Human overpopulation, Hydrology, Intensive farming, Land use,
Nanotechnology and Nuclear issues. Major effects are Climate change, Environmental
degradation, Environmental health, Environmental issues with energy, Overpopulation, Resource
depletion, Toxicants, wastes etc. Journal Article is sometimes called a Scientific Article, a Peer-
Reviewed Article, or a Scholarly Research Article. Together, journal articles in a particular field
are often referred to as The Literature. Journal articles are most often Primary Research Articles.
However, they can also be Review Articles. These types of articles have different aims and
requirements. Sometimes, an article describes a new tool or method. Because articles in
scientific journals are specific, meticulously cited and peer-reviewed, journal databases are the
best place to look for information on previous research on your species. Without a background in
the field, journal articles may be hard to understand - however, you do not need to understand an
entire article to be able to get valuable information from it.
Global Warming
By Holli RiebeekDesign by Robert SimmonJune 3, 2010

Throughout its long history, Earth has warmed and cooled time and again. Climate has
changed when the planet received more or less sunlight due to subtle shifts in its orbit, as
the atmosphere or surface changed, or when the Suns energy varied. But in the past
century, another force has started to influence Earths climate: humanity.

(NASA astronaut photograph ISS022-E-6674.)

What is Global Warming?
Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earths average surface temperature over
the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil
fuels.
How Does Todays Warming Compare to Past Climate Change?
Earth has experienced climate change in the past without help from humanity. But the
current climatic warming is occurring much more rapidly than past warming events.
Why Do Scientists Think Current Warming Isnt Natural?
In Earths history before the Industrial Revolution, Earths climate changed due to natural
causes unrelated to human activity. These natural causes are still in play today, but their
influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent
decades.
How Much More Will Earth Warm?
Models predict that as the world consumes ever more fossil fuel, greenhouse gas
concentrations will continue to rise, and Earths average surface temperature will rise with
them. Based on plausible emission scenarios, average surface temperatures could rise
between 2C and 6C by the end of the 21st century. Some of this warming will occur even if
future greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, because the Earth system has not yet fully
adjusted to environmental changes we have already made.
How Will Earth Respond to Warming Temperatures?
The impact of global warming is far greater than just increasing temperatures. Warming
modifies rainfall patterns, amplifies coastal erosion, lengthens the growing season in some
regions, melts ice caps and glaciers, and alters the ranges of some infectious diseases.
Some of these changes are already occurring.
References and Related Resources

Global Warming
Throughout its long history, Earth has warmed and cooled time and again. Climate has
changed when the planet received more or less sunlight due to subtle shifts in its orbit, as
the atmosphere or surface changed, or when the Suns energy varied. But in the past
century, another force has started to influence Earths climate: humanity
How does this warming compare to previous changes in Earths climate? How can we be
certain that human-released greenhouse gases are causing the warming? How much more
will the Earth warm? How will Earth respond? Answering these questions is perhaps the most
significant scientific challenge of our time.

What is Global Warming?

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earths average surface temperature over
the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels.
The global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.1 to 1.6 F)
between 1906 and 2005, and the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last
50 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further.

Despite ups and downs from year to year, global average surface temperature is rising. By the beginning of
the 21st century, Earths temperature was roughly 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term (19511980)
average. (NASA figure adapted from Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis.)

Earths natural greenhouse effect

Earths temperature begins with the Sun. Roughly 30 percent of incoming sunlight is
reflected back into space by bright surfaces like clouds and ice. Of the remaining 70
percent, most is absorbed by the land and ocean, and the rest is absorbed by the
atmosphere. The absorbed solar energy heats our planet.
As the rocks, the air, and the seas warm, they radiate heat energy (thermal infrared
radiation). From the surface, this energy travels into the atmosphere where much of it is
absorbed by water vapor and long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and
methane.
When they absorb the energy radiating from Earths surface, microscopic water or
greenhouse gas molecules turn into tiny heaters like the bricks in a fireplace, they radiate
heat even after the fire goes out. They radiate in all directions. The energy that radiates back
toward Earth heats both the lower atmosphere and the surface, enhancing the heating they
get from direct sunlight.
This absorption and radiation of heat by the atmospherethe natural greenhouse effectis
beneficial for life on Earth. If there were no greenhouse effect, the Earths average surface
temperature would be a very chilly -18C (0F) instead of the comfortable 15C (59F) that it
is today.
See Climate and Earths Energy Budget to read more about how sunlight fuels Earths climate.

The enhanced greenhouse effect

What has scientists concerned now is that over the past 250 years, humans have been
artificially raising the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at an ever-
increasing rate, mostly by burning fossil fuels, but also from cutting down carbon-absorbing
forests. Since the Industrial Revolution began in about 1750, carbon dioxide levels have
increased nearly 38 percent as of 2009 and methane levels have increased 148 percent.

Increases in concentrations of carbon dioxide (top) and methane (bottom) coincided with the start of the
Industrial Revolution in about 1750. Measurements from Antarctic ice cores (green lines) combined with
direct atmospheric measurements (blue lines) show the increase of both gases over time. (NASA graphs by
Robert Simmon, based on data from the NOAA Paleoclimatology and Earth System Research Laboratory.)
The atmosphere today contains more greenhouse gas molecules, so more of the infrared
energy emitted by the surface ends up being absorbed by the atmosphere. Since some of
the extra energy from a warmer atmosphere radiates back down to the surface, Earths
surface temperature rises. By increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases, we are
making Earths atmosphere a more efficient greenhouse.

How is Todays Warming Different from the Past?

Earth has experienced climate change in the past without help from humanity. We know
about past climates because of evidence left in tree rings, layers of ice in glaciers, ocean
sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. For example, bubbles of air in
glacial ice trap tiny samples of Earths atmosphere, giving scientists a history of greenhouse
gases that stretches back more than 800,000 years. The chemical make-up of the ice
provides clues to the average global temperature.
See the Earth Observatorys series Paleoclimatology for details about how scientists study past climates.

Glacial ice and air bubbles trapped in it (top) preserve an 800,000-year record of temperature & carbon
dioxide. Earth has cycled between ice ages (low points, large negative anomalies) and warm interglacials
(peaks). (Photograph courtesy National Snow & Ice Data Center. NASA graph by Robert Simmon, based on
data from Jouzel et al., 2007.)
Using this ancient evidence, scientists have built a record of Earths past climates, or
paleoclimates. The paleoclimate record combined with global models shows past ice ages
as well as periods even warmer than today. But the paleoclimate record also reveals that the
current climatic warming is occurring much more rapidly than past warming events.
As the Earth moved out of ice ages over the past million years, the global temperature rose
a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the
temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius, roughly ten times faster than the average rate
of ice-age-recovery warming.

Temperature histories from paleoclimate data (green line) compared to the history based on modern
instruments (blue line) suggest that global temperature is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000
years, and possibly longer. (Graph adapted from Mann et al., 2008.)
Models predict that Earth will warm between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius in the next century.
When global warming has happened at various times in the past two million years, it has
taken the planet about 5,000 years to warm 5 degrees. The predicted rate of warming for
the next century is at least 20 times faster. This rate of change is extremely unusual.

Is Current Warming Natural?

In Earths history before the Industrial Revolution, Earths climate changed due to natural
causes not related to human activity. Most often, global climate has changed because of
variations in sunlight. Tiny wobbles in Earths orbit altered when and where sunlight falls on
Earths surface. Variations in the Sun itself have alternately increased and decreased the
amount of solar energy reaching Earth. Volcanic eruptions have generated particles that
reflect sunlight, brightening the planet and cooling the climate. Volcanic activity has also, in
the deep past, increased greenhouse gases over millions of years, contributing to episodes
of global warming.
A biographical sketch of Milutin Milankovitch describes how changes in Earths orbit affects its climate.
These natural causes are still in play today, but their influence is too small or they
occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent decades. We know this
because scientists closely monitor the natural and human activities that influence climate
with a fleet of satellites and surface instruments.
Remote meteorological stations (left) and orbiting satellites (right) help scientists monitor the causes and
effects of global warming. [Images courtesy NOAA Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition
Change (left) and Environmental Visualization Laboratory (right).]
NASA satellites record a host of vital signs including atmospheric aerosols (particles from
both natural sources and human activities, such as factories, fires, deserts, and erupting
volcanoes), atmospheric gases (including greenhouse gases), energy radiated from Earths
surface and the Sun, ocean surface temperature changes, global sea level, the extent of ice
sheets, glaciers and sea ice, plant growth, rainfall, cloud structure, and more.
On the ground, many agencies and nations support networks of weather and climate-
monitoring stations that maintain temperature, rainfall, and snow depth records, and buoys
that measure surface water and deep ocean temperatures. Taken together, these
measurements provide an ever-improving record of both natural events and human activity
for the past 150 years.
Scientists integrate these measurements into climate models to recreate temperatures
recorded over the past 150 years. Climate model simulations that consider only natural solar
variability and volcanic aerosols since 1750omitting observed increases in greenhouse
gasesare able to fit the observations of global temperatures only up until about 1950.
After that point, the decadal trend in global surface warming cannot be explained without
including the contribution of the greenhouse gases added by humans.
Though people have had the largest impact on our climate since 1950, natural changes to
Earths climate have also occurred in recent times. For example, two major volcanic
eruptions, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, pumped sulfur dioxide gas high into
the atmosphere. The gas was converted into tiny particles that lingered for more than a
year, reflecting sunlight and shading Earths surface. Temperatures across the globe dipped
for two to three years.
Although Earths temperature fluctuates naturally, human influence on climate has eclipsed the magnitude
of natural temperature changes over the past 120 years. Natural influences on temperatureEl Nio, solar
variability, and volcanic aerosolshave varied approximately plus and minus 0.2 C (0.4 F), (averaging to
about zero), while human influences have contributed roughly 0.8 C (1 F) of warming since 1889. (Graphs
adapted from Lean et al., 2008.)
Although volcanoes are active around the world, and continue to emit carbon dioxide as
they did in the past, the amount of carbon dioxide they release is extremely small compared
to human emissions. On average, volcanoes emit between 130 and 230 million tonnes of
carbon dioxide per year. By burning fossil fuels, people release in excess of 100 times more,
about 26 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere every year (as of 2005). As a
result, human activity overshadows any contribution volcanoes may have made to recent
global warming.
Changes in the brightness of the Sun can influence the climate from decade to decade, but
an increase in solar output falls short as an explanation for recent warming. NASA satellites
have been measuring the Suns output since 1978. The total energy the Sun radiates varies
over an 11-year cycle. During solar maxima, solar energy is approximately 0.1 percent
higher on average than it is during solar minima.

The transparent halo known as the solar corona changes between solar maximum (left) and solar minimum
(right). (NASA Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope images from the SOHO Data Archive.)
Each cycle exhibits subtle differences in intensity and duration. As of early 2010, the solar
brightness since 2005 has been slightly lower, not higher, than it was during the previous
11-year minimum in solar activity, which occurred in the late 1990s. This implies that the
Suns impact between 2005 and 2010 might have been to slightly decrease the warming
that greenhouse emissions alone would have caused.

Satellite measurements of daily (light line) and monthly average (dark line) total solar irradiance since 1979
have not detected a clear long-term trend. (NASA graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from the ACRIM
Science Team.)
Scientists theorize that there may be a multi-decadal trend in solar output, though if one
exists, it has not been observed as yet. Even if the Sun were getting brighter, however, the
pattern of warming observed on Earth since 1950 does not match the type of warming the
Sun alone would cause. When the Suns energy is at its peak (solar maxima), temperatures in
both the lower atmosphere (troposphere) and the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) become
warmer. Instead, observations show the pattern expected from greenhouse gas effects:
Earths surface and troposphere have warmed, but the stratosphere has cooled.

Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere (lower atmosphere, green line) but cooling in the
stratosphere (upper atmosphere, red line). This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to
increasing greenhouse gases, but inconsistent with warming from natural causes. (Graph by Robert Simmon,
based on data from Remote Sensing Systems,sponsored by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program.)
The stratosphere gets warmer during solar maxima because the ozone layer absorbs
ultraviolet light; more ultraviolet light during solar maxima means warmer temperatures.
Ozone depletion explains the biggest part of the cooling of the stratosphere over recent
decades, but it cant account for all of it. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the
troposphere and stratosphere together contribute to cooling in the stratosphere.

How Much More Will Earth Warm?

To further explore the causes and effects of global warming and to predict future warming,
scientists build climate modelscomputer simulations of the climate system. Climate
models are designed to simulate the responses and interactions of the oceans and
atmosphere, and to account for changes to the land surface, both natural and human-
induced. They comply with fundamental laws of physicsconservation of energy, mass, and
momentumand account for dozens of factors that influence Earths climate.
Though the models are complicated, rigorous tests with real-world data hone them into
powerful tools that allow scientists to explore our understanding of climate in ways not
otherwise possible. By experimenting with the modelsremoving greenhouse gases emitted
by the burning of fossil fuels or changing the intensity of the Sun to see how each influences
the climatescientists use the models to better understand Earths current climate and to
predict future climate.
The models predict that as the world consumes ever more fossil fuel, greenhouse gas
concentrations will continue to rise, and Earths average surface temperature will rise with
them. Based on a range of plausible emission scenarios, average surface temperatures
could rise between 2C and 6C by the end of the 21st century.
Model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimate that Earth will warm between
two and six degrees Celsius over the next century, depending on how fast carbon dioxide emissions grow.
Scenarios that assume that people will burn more and more fossil fuel provide the estimates in the top end
of the temperature range, while scenarios that assume that greenhouse gas emissions will grow slowly give
lower temperature predictions. The orange line provides an estimate of global temperatures if greenhouse
gases stayed at year 2000 levels. (2007 IPCC WG1 AR-4.)

Climate Feedbacks
Greenhouse gases are only part of the story when it comes to global warming. Changes to
one part of the climate system can cause additional changes to the way the planet absorbs
or reflects energy. These secondary changes are called climate feedbacks, and they could
more than double the amount of warming caused by carbon dioxide alone.The primary
feedbacks are due to snow and ice, water vapor, clouds, and the carbon cycle.

Snow and ice

Perhaps the most well known feedback comes from melting snow and ice in the Northern
Hemisphere. Warming temperatures are already melting a growing percentage of Arctic sea
ice, exposing dark ocean water during the perpetual sunlight of summer. Snow cover on
land is also dwindling in many areas. In the absence of snow and ice, these areas go from
having bright, sunlight-reflecting surfaces that cool the planet to having dark, sunlight-
absorbing surfaces that bring more energy into the Earth system and cause more warming.
Canadas Athabasca Glacier has been shrinking by about 15 meters per year. In the past 125 years, the
glacier has lost half its volume and has retreated more than 1.5 kilometers. As glaciers retreat, sea ice
disappears, and snow melts earlier in the spring, the Earth absorbs more sunlight than it would if the
reflective snow and ice remained. (Photograph 2005 Hugh Saxby.)

Water Vapor
The largest feedback is water vapor. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. In fact,
because of its abundance in the atmosphere, water vapor causes about two-thirds of
greenhouse warming, a key factor in keeping temperatures in the habitable range on Earth.
But as temperatures warm, more water vapor evaporates from the surface into the
atmosphere, where it can cause temperatures to climb further.
The question that scientists ask is, how much water vapor will be in the atmosphere in a
warming world? The atmosphere currently has an average equilibrium or balance between
water vapor concentration and temperature. As temperatures warm, the atmosphere
becomes capable of containing more water vapor, and so water vapor concentrations go up
to regain equilibrium. Will that trend hold as temperatures continue to warm?
The amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere ultimately determines how much
additional warming will occur due to the water vapor feedback. The atmosphere responds
quickly to the water vapor feedback. So far, most of the atmosphere has maintained a near
constant balance between temperature and water vapor concentration as temperatures have
gone up in recent decades. If this trend continues, and many models say that it will, water
vapor has the capacity to double the warming caused by carbon dioxide alone.

Clouds
Closely related to the water vapor feedback is the cloud feedback. Clouds cause cooling by
reflecting solar energy, but they also cause warming by absorbing infrared energy (like
greenhouse gases) from the surface when they are over areas that are warmer than they
are. In our current climate, clouds have a cooling effect overall, but that could change in
a warmer environment.
Clouds can both cool the planet (by reflecting visible light from the sun) and warm the planet (by absorbing
heat radiation emitted by the surface). On balance, clouds slightly cool the Earth. (NASA Astronaut
Photograph STS31-E-9552 courtesy Johnson space Center Earth Observations Lab.)
If clouds become brighter, or the geographical extent of bright clouds expands, they will
tend to cool Earths surface. Clouds can become brighter if more moisture converges in a
particular region or if more fine particles (aerosols) enter the air. If fewer bright clouds form,
it will contribute to warming from the cloud feedback.
See Ship Tracks South of Alaska to learn how aerosols can make clouds brighter.
Clouds, like greenhouse gases, also absorb and re-emit infrared energy. Low, warm clouds
emit more energy than high, cold clouds. However, in many parts of the world, energy
emitted by low clouds can be absorbed by the abundant water vapor above them. Further,
low clouds often have nearly the same temperatures as the Earths surface, and so emit
similar amounts of infrared energy. In a world without low clouds, the amount of emitted
infrared energy escaping to space would not be too different from a world with low clouds.
Clouds emit thermal infrared (heat) radiation in proportion to their temperature, which is related to altitude.
This image shows the Western Hemisphere in the thermal infrared. Warm ocean and land surface areas are
white and light gray; cool, low-level clouds are medium gray; and cold, high-altitude clouds are dark gray
and black. (NASA image courtesy GOES Project Science.)
High cold clouds, however, form in a part of the atmosphere where energy-absorbing water
vapor is scarce. These clouds trap (absorb) energy coming from the lower atmosphere, and
emit little energy to space because of their frigid temperatures. In a world with high clouds,
a significant amount of energy that would otherwise escape to space is captured in the
atmosphere. As a result, global temperatures are higher than in a world without high clouds.
If warmer temperatures result in a greater amount of high clouds, then less infrared energy
will be emitted to space. In other words, more high clouds would enhance the greenhouse
effect, reducing the Earths capability to cool and causing temperatures to warm.
See Clouds and Radiation for a more complete description.
Scientists arent entirely sure where and to what degree clouds will end up amplifying or
moderating warming, but most climate models predict a slight overall positive feedback
or amplification of warming due to a reduction in low cloud cover. A recent
observational study found that fewer low, dense clouds formed over a region in the Pacific
Ocean when temperatures warmed, suggesting a positive cloud feedback in this region as
the models predicted. Such direct observational evidence is limited, however, and clouds
remain the biggest source of uncertainty--apart from human choices to control greenhouse
gasesin predicting how much the climate will change.
The Carbon Cycle
Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warming temperatures are
causing changes in the Earths natural carbon cycle that also can feedback on atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentration. For now, primarily ocean water, and to some extent
ecosystems on land, are taking up about half of our fossil fuel and biomass burning
emissions. This behavior slows global warming by decreasing the rate of atmospheric
carbon dioxide increase, but that trend may not continue. Warmer ocean waters will hold
less dissolved carbon, leaving more in the atmosphere.

About half the carbon dioxide emitted into the air from burning fossil fuels dissolves in the ocean. This map
shows the total amount of human-made carbon dioxide in ocean water from the surface to the sea floor.
Blue areas have low amounts, while yellow regions are rich in anthropogenic carbon dioxide. High amounts
occur where currents carry the carbon-dioxide-rich surface water into the ocean depths. (Map adapted from
Sabine et al., 2004.)
See The Oceans Carbon Balance on the Earth Observatory.
On land, changes in the carbon cycle are more complicated. Under a warmer climate, soils,
especially thawing Arctic tundra, could release trapped carbon dioxide or methane to the
atmosphere. Increased fire frequency and insect infestations also release more carbon as
trees burn or die and decay.
On the other hand, extra carbon dioxide can stimulate plant growth in some ecosystems,
allowing these plants to take additional carbon out of the atmosphere. However, this effect
may be reduced when plant growth is limited by water, nitrogen, and temperature. This
effect may also diminish as carbon dioxide increases to levels that become saturating for
photosynthesis. Because of these complications, it is not clear how much additional carbon
dioxide plants can take out of the atmosphere and how long they could continue to do so.
The impact of climate change on the land carbon cycle is extremely complex, but on
balance, land carbon sinks will become less efficient as plants reach saturation, where
they can no longer take up additional carbon dioxide, and other limitations on growth occur,
and as land starts to add more carbon to the atmosphere from warming soil, fires, and
insect infestations. This will result in a faster increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and
more rapid global warming. In some climate models, carbon cycle feedbacks from both land
and ocean add more than a degree Celsius to global temperatures by 2100.

Emission Scenarios
Scientists predict the range of likely temperature increase by running many possible future
scenarios through climate models. Although some of the uncertainty in climate forecasts
comes from imperfect knowledge of climate feedbacks, the most significant source of
uncertainty in these predictions is that scientists dont know what choices people will make
to control greenhouse gas emissions.
The higher estimates are made on the assumption that the entire world will continue using
more and more fossil fuel per capita, a scenario scientists call business-as-usual. More
modest estimates come from scenarios in which environmentally friendly technologies such
as fuel cells, solar panels, and wind energy replace much of todays fossil fuel combustion.
It takes decades to centuries for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases.
Carbon dioxide, among other greenhouse gases, will remain in the atmosphere long after
emissions are reduced, contributing to continuing warming. In addition, as Earth has
warmed, much of the excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean.
Like a hot water bottle on a cold night, the heated ocean will continue warming the lower
atmosphere well after greenhouse gases have stopped increasing.
These considerations mean that people wont immediately see the impact of reduced
greenhouse gas emissions. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized today, the
planet would continue to warm by about 0.6C over the next century because of
greenhouses gases already in the atmosphere.
See Earths Big Heat Bucket, Correcting Ocean Cooling, and Climate Q&A: If we immediately stopped emitting
greenhouse gases, would global warming stop? to learn more about the ocean heat and global warming.

How Will Global Warming Change Earth?

The impact of increased surface temperatures is significant in itself. But global warming will
have additional, far-reaching effects on the planet. Warming modifies rainfall patterns,
amplifies coastal erosion, lengthens the growing season in some regions, melts ice caps and
glaciers, and alters the ranges of some infectious diseases. Some of these changes are
already occurring.

Global warming will shift major climate patterns, possibly prolonging and intensifying the current drought in
the U.S. Southwest. The white ring of bleached rock on the once-red cliffs that hold Lake Powell indicate the
drop in water level over the past decadethe result of repeated winters with low snowfall. (Photograph
2006 Tigresblanco.)

Changing Weather
For most places, global warming will result in more frequent hot days and fewer cool days,
with the greatest warming occurring over land. Longer, more intense heat waves will
become more common. Storms, floods, and droughts will generally be more severe as
precipitation patterns change. Hurricanes may increase in intensity due to warmer ocean
surface temperatures.

Apart from driving temperatures up, global warming is likely to cause bigger, more destructive storms,
leading to an overall increase in precipitation. With some exceptions, the tropics will likely receive less rain
(orange) as the planet warms, while the polar regions will receive more precipitation (green). White areas
indicate that fewer than two-thirds of the climate models agreed on how precipitation will change. Stippled
areas reveal where more than 90 percent of the models agreed. (2007 IPCCWG1 AR-4.)
It is impossible to pin any single unusual weather event on global warming, but emerging
evidence suggests that global warming is already influencing the weather. Heat waves,
droughts, and intense rain events have increased in frequency during the last 50 years,
and human-induced global warming more likely than not contributed to the trend.

Rising Sea Levels

The weather isnt the only thing global warming will impact: rising sea levels will erode
coasts and cause more frequent coastal flooding. Some island nations will disappear. The
problem is serious because up to 10 percent of the worlds population lives in vulnerable
areas less than 10 meters (about 30 feet) above sea level.
Between 1870 and 2000, the sea level increased by 1.7 millimeters per year on average, for
a total sea level rise of 221 millimeters (0.7 feet or 8.7 inches). And the rate of sea level
rise is accelerating. Since 1993, NASA satellites have shown that sea levels are rising more
quickly, about 3 millimeters per year, for a total sea level rise of 48 millimeters (0.16 feet or
1.89 inches) between 1993 and 2009.

Sea levels crept up about 20 centimeters (7.9 inches) during the twentieth century. Sea levels are predicted
to go up between 18 and 59 cm (7.1 and 23 inches) over the next century, though the increase could be
greater if ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica melt more quickly than predicted. Higher sea levels will
erode coastlines and cause more frequent flooding. (Graph 2007 Robert Rohde.)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that sea levels will rise
between 0.18 and 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 feet) by 2099 as warming sea water expands,
and mountain and polar glaciers melt. These sea level change predictions may be
underestimates, however, because they do not account for any increases in the rate at which
the worlds major ice sheets are melting. As temperatures rise, ice will melt more quickly.
Satellite measurements reveal that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are shedding
about 125 billion tons of ice per yearenough to raise sea levels by 0.35 millimeters (0.01
inches) per year. If the melting accelerates, the increase in sea level could be significantly
higher.

Impacting Ecosystems
More importantly, perhaps, global warming is already putting pressure on ecosystems, the
plants and animals that co-exist in a particular climate zone, both on land and in the ocean.
Warmer temperatures have already shifted the growing season in many parts of the globe.
The growing season in parts of the Northern Hemisphere became two weeks longer in the
second half of the 20th century. Spring is coming earlier in both hemispheres.
This change in the growing season affects the broader ecosystem. Migrating animals have to
start seeking food sources earlier. The shift in seasons may already be causing the lifecycles
of pollinators, like bees, to be out of synch with flowering plants and trees. This mismatch
can limit the ability of both pollinators and plants to survive and reproduce, which would
reduce food availability throughout the food chain.
See Buzzing About Climate Change to read more about how the lifecycle of bees is synched with flowering
plants.
Warmer temperatures also extend the growing season. This means that plants need more
water to keep growing throughout the season or they will dry out, increasing the risk of
failed crops and wildfires. Once the growing season ends, shorter, milder winters fail to kill
dormant insects, increasing the risk of large, damaging infestations in subsequent seasons.
In some ecosystems, maximum daily temperatures might climb beyond the tolerance of
indigenous plant or animal. To survive the extreme temperatures, both marine and land-
based plants and animals have started to migrate towards the poles. Those species, and in
some cases, entire ecosystems, that cannot quickly migrate or adapt, face extinction. The
IPCC estimates that 20-30 percent of plant and animal species will be at risk of extinction if
temperatures climb more than 1.5 to 2.5C.

Impacting People
The changes to weather and ecosystems will also affect people more directly. Hardest hit
will be those living in low-lying coastal areas, and residents of poorer countries who do not
have the resources to adapt to changes in temperature extremes and water resources. As
tropical temperature zones expand, the reach of some infectious diseases, such as malaria,
will change. More intense rains and hurricanes and rising sea levels will lead to more severe
flooding and potential loss of property and life.

One inevitable consequence of global warming is sea-level rise. In the face of higher sea levels and more
intense storms, coastal communities face greater risk of rapid beach erosion from destructive storms like
the intense noreaster of April 2007 that caused this damage. (Photograph 2007 metimbers2000.)
Hotter summers and more frequent fires will lead to more cases of heat stroke and deaths,
and to higher levels of near-surface ozone and smoke, which would cause more code red
air quality days. Intense droughts can lead to an increase in malnutrition. On a longer time
scale, fresh water will become scarcer, especially during the summer, as mountain glaciers
disappear, particularly in Asia and parts of North America.
On the flip side, there could be winners in a few places. For example, as long as the rise in
global average temperature stays below 3 degrees Celsius, some models predict that global
food production could increase because of the longer growing season at mid- to high-
latitudes, provided adequate water resources are available. The same small change in
temperature, however, would reduce food production at lower latitudes, where many
countries already face food shortages. On balance, most research suggests that the negative
impacts of a changing climate far outweigh the positive impacts. Current civilization
agriculture and population distributionhas developed based on the current climate. The
more the climate changes, and the more rapidly it changes, the greater the cost of
adaptation.
Ultimately, global warming will impact life on Earth in many ways, but the extent of the
change is largely up to us. Scientists have shown that human emissions of greenhouse gases
are pushing global temperatures up, and many aspects of climate are responding to the
warming in the way that scientists predicted they would. This offers hope. Since people are
causing global warming, people can mitigate global warming, if they act in time.
Greenhouse gases are long-lived, so the planet will continue to warm and changes will
continue to happen far into the future, but the degree to which global warming changes life
on Earth depends on our decisions now.