1
Short Term Power Demand Forecasting in Light- and
Heavy-duty Electric Vehicles Through Linear
Prediction Method
1
Mahdi Mousavi Sangdehi, Student Member, IEEE, 2K. Lakshmi Varaha Iyer, Student Member, IEEE,
3
Kaushik Mukherjee, Member, IEEE, and 4Narayan C. Kar, Senior Member, IEEE
Centre for Hybrid Automotive Research and Green Energy, University of Windsor, ON, Canada N9B 3P4
1
mousavi@uwindsor.ca, 2iyerl@uwindsor.ca, , 3kmukh@uwindsor.ca, and 4nkar@uwindsor.ca
Abstract In this paper a novel method based on linear
prediction technique is proposed for short term power demand
forecasting in light and heavy-duty electric vehicles for
improvement in the overall efficiency of the vehicle. The paper
also utilizes filtering of unnecessary information which would
have been a major bottleneck in improving the methods
accuracy. The predicted demand function is fed to a wavelet
function, which apportions the share between the battery and the
ultracapacitor of the considered energy management system.
The proposed method is validated with empirical power demand
data obtained from on road tests of both light and heavy-duty
electric vehicles through numerical investigations.
Index Terms Energy management system, heavy duty
electric vehicles, light duty electric vehicles, linear prediction,
predictive control scheme, wavelet transforms.
I. INTRODUCTION
The current market of light electric vehicles (cars) and
evolution of all electric heavy-duty vehicles (bus) in the
market like the e-BUS12, Proterra, Astonbus, etc. has
accelerated the need for advanced research and development
of energy management system (EMS) of these vehicles for
better utilization of battery/ultracapacitor combination
considering frequent stop/start duty. Considering this type of
duty, the efficiency of these vehicles can be enhanced by
assisting the energy management system with pre-emptive
knowledge of power demand which can lead to effective and
efficient utilization of the vehicles powertrain. The prediction
scheme proposed in this paper assists the energy management
system by forecasting the load demand based on frequently
updated history of the vehicle. Moreover, the real-time
application of such prediction schemes performed at the Audi
Research Labs to improve the fuel economy of ICE based
vehicles has led to the application of these schemes for light as
well as heavy-duty electric vehicles. Using the knowledge of
traffic ahead, the EMS in the vehicle can react to changes in
traffic density or speed before they happen, enhancing the
response time of various components and hence the efficiency
of a trip. Background literature obtained from [1]-[3]
illustrates that the EMS of electric (EV) and hybrid electric
vehicles (HEVs) require prediction times in the range of
seconds ahead of our interest as the problems associated with
delay due to vehicle dynamics have to be dealt with. Thus,
short term demand prediction can be used as a tool towards
improved dynamic control of these vehicles by making short-
978-1-4673-1408-4/12/$31.00 2012 IEEE
term decisions. The short-term decisions could be either
changing from one power source to the other in a HEV, or
changing the power flow among the different hybrid sources
in an electric vehicle and/or any other control action which
involves delays.
II. MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPED LINEAR
PREDICTION TECHNIQUE FOR LIGHT AND HEAVY DUTY
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
A. The Linear Prediction Method
Linear prediction method is a powerful technique for
predicting time series in a time-varying environment. A power
demand profile of light and heavy-duty vehicles typically
belongs to a time-varying process. The linear prediction
model, recursively represents the time series of signal samples
over a time interval [4], as in (1).
y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ) (1)
+ b1u (t + T ) + b2 u (t ) + ... + bn u (t nT ) + c1e(t )
Here a1, a2,..., am, b1, ..., bn, and c1 are the model coefficients,
m is the model degree, y(t+T) is the future sample, y(t) the
present observation, y(t-T) and y(t-nT) are the immediate and
nth past observations respectively, u(t) and u(t-T) are the
present and immediate past inputs, respectively, and e(t) is the
present model error. In (1), if a1 =...= am = 0, the model is
called moving average or an all-zero model (if considered as a
transfer function). If m>1 and b1 =...= bn = 0, the model is
called an auto-regressive or an all-pole model. If m<1 and
n<1, the model is called ARMA (auto-regressive moving
average) or the pole-zero model [5].
After modeling each window the sampler advances by one
step, thus, updating the model for the new data window.
Parametric models for short term demanded power prediction
are often based on (1), which is mostly a recursive process and
predicts the demanded power at time t+T. However, if more
time steps are required, then the process may be recessively
employed [6]. If b1 =...= bn = 0 and e(t) is ignored then (1)
can be written as in (2).
y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ). (2)
The output is the linear combination of the present and past
samples; hence the name, linear prediction. Two steps are
required for short term demanded power prediction using (2).
 2

In this methodology if m is chosen greater than the required

Measured samples value, (5) cannot be solved for any unique set of coefficients
y(t-mT) ... y(t-T) y(t-mT) ... y(t-T) because some columns in matrix are not independent of each
a1 other. Hence T. would be singular and will not have an
Arithmetic Prediction y(t+nT) inverse. This means the system of equations in (3) will have

Module Module nth next sample an infinite number of answers for the coefficients. Also, if m is
am chosen less than the required value, the number of
Model coefficients independent equations would be more than the number of un-
Fig. 1. The block diagram for short term demanded power prediction method. known variables (a1am). Such a system of equations must be
solved for the best approximation of coefficients. The best
Referring to (2), the model degree (m) must be carefully approximation for the coefficients (a1am) is to use the least
selected and the coefficients, a1,..., am, must be calculated squares error method. Generally, the least squares method is
from the modeling window. The model can be used to predict the most effective modeling process used in practice with
the demanded power for the time steps ahead. The idea of the demanded power signals. The best modeling order, m, is
short term demanded power prediction is represented in Fig. 1 suggested to be the smallest possible value which provides
[7]. Primarily, the modeling window is used to find the best sufficient and acceptable results. The best modeling window is
model for the waveform meanwhile the model parameters are the smallest window which gives acceptable results [8].
used to predict the demanded power in the future.
C. Experimental Data Acqusition of Light and Heavy Duty
B. Estimating the Coefficients of Linear Prediction Model Electric Vehicles Used in the Investigations

If the modeling error is considered, (2) can be rewritten as
in (3). In order to estimate the coefficients a1, a2,..., am in (3),
the least squares error method will be used. This error is
between the estimated value, at time t, and the measured
value, at that same instant.
y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ) + e(t ). (3)
In the least squares error method, the energy in the error signal
is minimized. It should be mentioned that the error is
generated because the linear prediction model cannot be fitted
with zero error to the waveform signal. A set of equations as
presented in (4) is used to find the coefficients, a1 ,...,am, [8].
[Y ] = [][A] + [E ] (4)
where:
[Y ] = [y(t ) y(t T ) y (t kT )]T
Section 3 of this paper illustrates measured results obtained
from an on road vehicle test performed using the laboratory
light duty electric vehicle. The electric car uses a 7.5 hp
aluminum-rotor induction motor with a variable frequency
drive. The vehicle instrumentation layout is as shown in Fig.
2. Also, the power demand profile of the heavy duty electric
vehicle obtained from urban dynamometer driving cycle of an
electric bus as given in the Autonomy software is as shown in
section 3. The maximum speed achieved by the bus was 56
miles/hour and acceleration/deceleration was 1.47 mile/sec2.
The power demand profile of the electric bus was found to
vary slowly when compared to that of the car.
Hence, it can be inferred from this study that the as the load
increases, in order to keep up the constant speed of the
vehicles, acceleration has to be increased. In the process of
accelerating, the power demand has to meet by the power
sources. Using the linear prediction method proposed in the
paper, the power demand can be estimated before hand and the
energy sources can be used effectively, thus improving the
efficiency of the vehicle.

y (t T ) y (t 2T ) y (t mT )
y (t 2T ) y (t (m + 1))T
=


y[t (k + 1)T ] y (t (m + k )T )

a1 e(t )
a e(t T )
A= 2 E =


am e (t kT )

Elements in matrix, A, are the coefficients which van be

found by the least squares error method:
Fig. 2. Vehicle instrumentation layout. (a) Data acquisition and logging
[A] = [[] []] [] [Y ]
T 1 T notebook A. (b) Fluke 434 Power Quality Analyser B. (c) Tektronix
(5) TPS2024 digital storage oscilloscope C.
 3

5000 Measured Power without Filtering

4000 Predicted Power

Power Demand [W]

3000

2000

1000

0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Time[s]
Fig. 3. Proposed linear prediction method output for light duty electric vehicle without filtering, with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.

32000 Measure Power without Filtering

Predicted Power
Power Demand [W]

24000

16000

8000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Time[s]
Fig. 4. Proposed linear prediction method output for heavy duty electric vehicle with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.

4500 Measured Power without Filtering

4000 Measured Power with Filtering
3500
Power Demand [W]

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Time[s]
Fig. 5. Filtered and non-filtered measured power demand profile.

4500 Measured Power with Filtering

4000 Predicted Power
3500
Power Demand [W]

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Time[s]

Fig. 6. Proposed linear prediction method output for light duty electric vehicle with filtering, with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.

III. VALIDATION OF THE PROPOSED LINEAR PREDICTION
METHOD FOR LIGHT AND HEAVY DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES
A. Power Demand Forecast without Filtering the Measured
Power Demand Waveforms
To predict the demanded power based on the linear
prediction modeling of demanded power samples, equation (2)
has been used. The results of applying the proposed method to
the non-filtered demand power signal of the light and heavy
duty electric vehicles are shown in Figs. 3 and 4. These results
are for a prediction time of 1 s, based on 30 samples for
window length and for a model degree of m=3 which lead to
good prediction including the sufficient history of data. The
linear prediction method result for the light electric vehicle
has quicker transitions in comparison to that of the heavy duty
vehicle as dictated by the load profile of the respective
vehicles. It can be seen that there is a small mismatch between
the predicted and measured results for the light duty electric
vehicle which is acceptable as the correlation is 80%.
Whereas, the predicted profile for the heavy duty electric
vehicle is in closer agreement with that of the measured power
and the correlation is found to be 97%. Thus, it was found that
the prediction could be improved by filtering the load profile
of the light duty vehicle, where as the heavy duty load profile
did not call for filtering because of the vehicles slower
transition and satisfactory prediction. Hence the power
demand forecast after filtering the light duty vehicles load
profile is provided in Fig. 5.
B. Power Demand Forecast after Filtering the Measured
Power Demand Waveforms
As was mentioned in the previous sub-section, filtering out
ineffective frequency components for the spectrum of a signal
can provide better prediction. The measured power is then
Fig. 7. Predicted power demand input and the outputs of the wavelet based EMS for light duty electric vehicle.
4
filtered and sent to the predictive controller [10], [11]. A low
pass filter is also imposed by the electric vehicle mechanical
system. Filtering makes the measured power smoother and
hence more predictable for short term. A sample real
measured power is shown in Fig. 5 along with its filtered
measured power signal. The filtered waveform together with
the prediction results for one step (1 s) ahead, are plotted in
Fig. 6. As shown in Fig. 6, the linear prediction model gives
acceptable result. The linear prediction model is effective for a
wide range of prediction times ahead and gives acceptable
results. In Fig. 6, the model degree is m= 3, the window length
is five times m (15 points with 1 s sampling period) and the
prediction time is 1 s ahead. The correlation coefficient is
detailed in Appendix A. Filtering the signal of the power
demand which keeps the trend of the signal and includes the
whole signal sags and swells was found to results in a
correlation of more than 89% and above.
C. Illustration of the proposed Prediction Scheme through
Haar Wavelet based Energy Management System
Inorder to validate and analyse the performance of the
developed linear prediction scheme the predicted load profiles
of the light duty and heavy duty electric vehicles were fed into
a developed Haar wavelet based energy management
system(EMS). The EMS was designed for two contemporary
hybrid energy sources such as the battery and the
ultracapacitor (UC), where in the battery would serve the base
load and the UC would assist peaking power demand in the
vehicles because of their highly dynamic response. The
predicted waveforms when fed into the EMS get assigned to
either the battery or the UC based on the frequency of the
samples. As shown in Fig 7 and 8, the high frequency
components of the predicted power demand is assigned to the
UC as they are periods peaking loads. On the other hand, the
lower frequency components which represent the base load of
the vehicles is assigned to the battery.

Fig. 8. Predicted power demand input and the outputs of the wavelet based EMS for heavy duty electric vehicle.
IV. CONCLUSION
In this paper, a predictive control based on linear prediction
method is proposed to predict the power demand one step
ahead. Precise prediction will result in the better and more
efficient response of energy management system in electric
vehicles. The linear prediction method proposed in this paper
was found to be a very powerful tool of prediction, good for
short term prediction of power demand in both light duty and
heavy duty electric vehicles. The linear prediction method
applied to light duty electric vehicle power demand data
predicted the power profile which was good enough to be
applied to an energy management system, but the prediction
was further improved by filtering the measured power of light
electric vehicle. However, the prediction for the heavy duty
electric vehicle was found to be satisfactory even without
filtering the measured power demand profile. A 97%
correlation between the measured and predicted signal was
obtained for the heavy duty electric vehicle and 89%
correlation was obtained for the light duty electric vehicle.
V. REFERENCES
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[2] A. Szumannowski and Y. Chang, Battery management system based
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[3] J. Makhoul, Linear prediction: a tutorial review, Proc IEEE, vol. 63,
pp. 561-580, 1975.
[4] A. Szumannowski and Y. Chang, Battery management system based
on battery nonlinear dynamics modeling, IEEE Trans. on Vehicular
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[5] W. H. Press, Numerical Recipes in FORTRAN - The Art of Scientific
Computing, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
[6] J. P. Strobach, Linear Prediction Theory, New York: Springer, 1990
[7] S. W. Lang and J. H. McClellan, A simple proof of stability for all-
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[8] G. H. Riahy and M. Abedi, Short term wind speed forecasting for
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5
[9] S. A. Pormousavi Kani and M. M. Ardehali, Very Short term wind
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[10] S. A. Pormousavi Kani, M. Mousavi Sangdehi, A. Kashefi Kaviani, and
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VI. APPENDIX A
In this appendix, information is given on correlation
coefficient assessment. In probability theory and statistics,
correllation, also called correlation coefficient, indicates the
strength of relationship between two random variables or
signals. Considering two signals, X(t), and Y(t), the correlation
coefficient can be obtained from [11]:
Corr ( X , Y ) = X (t + T )Y (t )dt (A.1)
where, T, is called the lag and the correlation coefficient is a
function of this lag. In this paper the lag, T, is set to be zero.
This means correlation between X(t) and Y(t) without any lag.
In this paper, X(t), is the measured power and, Y(t), is the
predicted power by linear prediction. The value of correlation
coefficient can be between -1 to +1 (or -100% to +100%). A
value equal to 100% means the two signals are exactly
identical and a value equal to zero means the two signals has
no correlation and are independent. A value less than 0.3
means small correlation, a value between 0.3 and 0.5 means
medium correlation, and, a value more than 0.5 means large
correlation. A negative value (for eg. -100%) means the
signals are identical but where one signal increases by a small
amount, the other signal decreases exactly by the same
amount.

VII. BIOGRAPHIES
S.Mahdi Mousavi Sangdehi received her Bachelor in
Engineering from K.N. Toosi University of Technology,
Iran in July, 2005 and his M.A.Sc degree of power
electrical enginnering from Amirkabir university of
technology, Iran in July 2008. He is currently working
towards his PhD degree at University of Windsor,
Ontario, Canada. His research areas include energy
management and control of electric vehicles, power
electronics application in electric vehicles and renewable energy systems.
Kaushik Mukherjee (M03) was born in 1970. He
received the B.E. degree from the Department of
Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University, Calcutta,
India, in 1993, the M.E. degree from the Department of
Electrical Engineering, Bengal Engineering College,
Howrah, India, in 1998, and the Ph.D. degree from the
Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of
Technology, Kharagpur, India, in 2003. Since 1993, he
has spent almost two and a half years in the industry. In
2002, he joined the Department of Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur
University, India as a Lecturer. From 2006 onwards, he is an Assistant
Professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering, Bengal Engineering
and Science University, Howrah, India. Dr. Mukherjee is presently a Visiting
Professor at the Centre for Hybrid Automotive Research & Green Energy,
University of Windsor, Canada. His research interests include electrical
machine drives and power electronics applications in general.
6
K. Lakshmi Varaha Iyer received the B.Tech. degree in
Electronics and Communication Engineering from
SASTRA University, India, in the year 2009 and the
M.A.Sc. degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering
from University of Windsor, Canada in the year 2011. He
is currently a Research Associate at the Centre for Hybrid
Automotive Research and Green Energy, University of
Windsor, Canada. His research presently focuses on
design & control of electric machines and condition
monitoring for renewable energy applications.
Narayan C. Kar received the B.Sc. degree in Electrical
Engineering from Bangladesh University of Engineering
and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh, in 1992 and the
M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical engineering from
Kitami Institute of Technology, Hokkaido, Japan, in 1997
and 2000, respectively. He is an associate professor in the
Electrical and Computer Engineering Department at the
University of Windsor, Canada where he holds the
Canada Research Chair position in hybrid drivetrain systems. His research
presently focuses on the analysis, design and control of permanent magnet
synchronous, induction and switched reluctance machines for hybrid electric
vehicle and wind power applications, testing and performance analysis of
batteries and development of optimization techniques for hybrid energy
management system. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE.