Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 8

Sri Lanka: The centre - stage of the 21st

century ?

The second Indian Ocean Conference taking place in Colombo from 31


August to 1 September is an opportune time to re-examine the geo-
strategic significance of Sri Lanka and its immense potential

Friday, 1 September 2017

The 21st century is regarded as the Asian Century. With China and India, the rising
Asian giants rapidly expanding their economies and becoming increasingly
dependent on the Indian Ocean for trade, the third largest ocean in the world has
never been more important than today.

Spanning 20% of the water surface of the planet, the Indian Ocean extends to an
area of more than 73,556,000 square kilometres. On the North, it is bordered by
the Indian sub-continent, and extends all the way to the Antarctic in the South. On
the West, it is bordered by East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula while to the East,
a number of countries including Thailand, Indonesia, the Malay Peninsula and
Australia demarcate the boundaries of this vast expanse of water.

Approximately 35.39% of the world population, amounting to more than one-


third of the worlds population, live in the 36 countries that encompass the Indian
Ocean region. All these figures underline the significance of the Indian Ocean to
the world.

The Indian Ocean is also one of the most strategically important seas in the world.
It is the sea, which connects the Pacific Ocean to Asia. 80% of the sea borne trade
in oil and as much as 90% of goods manufactured in the world still ply though this
massive water body that amounts to the worlds third largest sea.

More than 60,000 ships and half the worlds containerised cargo cross these
waters. In the years to come these figures are only going to increase further with
the growth of booming Asian economies such as China, India and even Japan and
South Korea.

Among other things, the rise of China and India, their massive investments in
Africa, the discovery of oil, natural gas and minerals in the seabed of the Indian
Ocean have put Asia in news headlines. Constant natural disasters, threat of
terrorism, drug trafficking and human smuggling have attracted the attention of
the world to this region.

Opportunities and challenges in the Indian Ocean region


Trade facilitation is one of the key opportunities available for many of
the littoral states in the region, especially Sri Lanka with its strategically important
location. Maritime resources, energy security and ocean science are also some of
the key areas of interest in the region as there are vast resources which are being
discovered in the Indian Ocean such as natural gas, minerals and oil. Further, the
region is also home to considerable marine life. The substantial fishery resources
available in the region can be used to make significant contributions towards
world food security.

In addition to the opportunities, there are a number of challenges faced by the


region. Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear technology. There is the threat of
a potential nuclear confrontation between these two nations and it keeps the
world alert for nuclear disasters in Asia.

There is also Iran, which now boasts of nuclear technology. With its missile testing
and naval exercises, Iran constantly threatens of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. It
can have a considerable impact on world oil prices and economic stability. The US
intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan attracted the attention of the world to Asia.
Even though the US troops are withdrawing from these countries, the future of
these nations are of great importance to the whole world. For example, if
Afghanistan is stabilised, China can reap a direct benefit from it by establishing a
pipeline that carries natural gas from the Indian Ocean through Afghanistan to
China. This will make it less dependent on the Strait of Malacca. Thus, there are
many competing interests, which impact the events that take place in the region.

The Indian Ocean has also been prone to a number of ocean-related natural
disasters such as the 2004 Tsunami. As a region, it has a major bearing on climate
change, ocean science and nature. However, establishment of monitoring centres
in the region can turn this very vulnerability into an opportunity.

The fisheries resources in the region can also be a potential threat to security in
the region. For example, Indian fishermen poaching in the Sri Lankan territorial
waters have over the years led to a continuing diplomatic row between the two
governments. The many energy resources available in the region have also
attracted the attention of not just the countries in the region but also outside
powers.

With considerable mechanisation, urbanisation and developments taking place in


the region, there will be more and more natural disasters. This makes it
imperative to have a strong disaster management set up in place. Strong scientific
co-operation will be required to address these issues as climate change in the
region affects the whole world. With more than one-third of the worlds
population concentrated in this region, the human casualties caused by natural
disasters will inevitably be higher. It will be yet another factor that draws the
attention of the world to this region in the future.

Terrorism, piracy, human smuggling and drug trafficking are all threats faced by all
nations irrespective of their size and power in the region. Countries such as
Pakistan, Afghanistan and India are threatened by terrorism and it is a hub for
some of the most dangerous terrorist organisations in the world. The area is
rampant with human trafficking, particularly massive scale trafficking of women
and children across the many porous borders across the countries in the region.
Drug trafficking is a major threat to countries such as Sri Lanka.

Piracy is also becoming a common menace faced by many areas across the Indian
Ocean. Due to increased patrolling in the Gulf of Aden and East Africa, the Somali
pirates have moved further into the Indian Ocean and they were back in action
March 2017 renewing fears for safety in the Indian Ocean. The Malacca Strait and
the Bay of Bengal also face the risk of piracy and sea guerrillas. Until very recently,
there were LTTE Sea Tigers posing a threat to vessels that traversed the seas close
to Sri Lanka.
Ensuring maritime security in this setting will be a challenge not only for the
countries in the region, but also for the rest of the world. The blockade of a single
choke point in the Indian Ocean could put the world economy at risk. Thus,
ensuring maritime security in the Indian Ocean is of utmost importance to the
whole world as the world today is inextricably linked to Asia in every possible way.
It is not just the vast opportunities, but also these diverse challenges, which will
make the Indian Ocean region the epicentre of the world in the 21st century.

China and India in the Indian Ocean


The rise of China and India as the worlds leading manufacturing hubs has
increased their demand for energy, resulting in a large number of ships traversing
the busy sea-lanes of the region. In order to reduce its dependence on the
Malacca Strait, China is constructing deep-water ports in a number of locations in
the Indian Ocean including Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka.

China is building these ports in the hope that it will be able to use these facilities
for bunkering and have warehousing and other port facilities for their commercial
goods. Chinese-manufactured goods are shipped to the West, the Middle East and
Africa across the Indian Ocean. In addition to these projects, China is also
providing considerable military and economic support to all these nations, where
it is improving ports and other infrastructure.

Threatened by Chinas One Belt One Road initiative, India is also making
considerable investments in strengthening its naval and maritime power with the
support of the USA. All these factors demonstrate the value placed on the Indian
Ocean by the two greatest economic giants of the 21st century. Both these
countries are heavily dependent on the Indian Ocean and are keen on making
their presence felt in the region.

Other Indian Ocean littoral states are also heavily reliant on the Indian Ocean.
Several major sea routes of communication fall across the Indian Ocean. They are
of vital significance for importing energy from Africa and the Middle East to Asia,
and for exporting manufactured goods from Asia.
The Indian Ocean is crucial to both China and India in light of Asias economic
expansion. Both these countries have taken active measures to establish control
over the Indian Ocean. What is more, the world order is changing and there is a
shift of focus from the United States and the West to the East and its rising giants.
These shifting sands of power have put Asia, the former third world in the
limelight.

The US has shifted its focus from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Asia Pacific region,
and Asia is slowly dividing into two blocks. On one side, the pro-US countries and
on the other, pro-Chinese countries. Countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and
Mauritius are reaping benefits of their geographical location in the Indian Ocean
and Sino-Indian rivalry.

With the rise of China and India there has also been massive trade and
investments made in resource rich Africa by these Asian giants. From 2000-2010,
Africas merchandise trade with China grew at an annual rate of 29% (from $9
billion to $119 billion) and with India at an annual rate of 18% (from $7 billion to
$35 billion). Consequently, there has been large-scale development in Africa
supported by what was the former third world and increasing trade between Asia
and Africa. All these rely on the Indian Ocean too.

Prospects for Sri Lanka


According to Robert Kaplan, the author of Monsoon- the Indian Ocean and the
Future of American Power (2010), if we are entering a phase of history in which
several nations will share dominance of the high seas, rather than one as in the
recent past, then the Indian Ocean will play centre stage to this more dynamic and
unstable configuration.

In his article titled Centre-stage for the 21st century: Power plays in the Indian
Ocean, Kaplan states that already the worlds preeminent energy and trade
interstate seaway, the Indian Ocean will matter even more in the future and that
a map of the Indian Ocean exposes the contours of power politics in the twenty-
first century.
A map of the Indian Ocean also reveals that Sri Lanka lies at the centre of the
Indian Ocean. It is located on what Kaplan refers to as the preeminent energy
and trade interstate seaway, the shipping lane that connects the East to the West.
Thus, if the Indian Ocean is the centre-stage for the 21st century, Sri Lanka located
at the heart of this ocean can be the centre-stage of the 21st century. Sri Lanka
has the potential to be the epicentre of trade and geopolitics that will take place
in the Indian Ocean in this century.

For Sri Lanka, located right at the centre of the Indian Ocean just 10 nautical miles
away from these major sea-lanes, it is a tremendous opportunity. Its location is
important both in terms of military strategy and economic terms, as it can serve
as a gateway to Far East Asia and by being the entry point to rapidly developing
South Asia. It has the potential to become a major transhipment hub, a naval hub
and a commercial hub in the region by exploiting the massive import and export
trade that takes place across the Indian Ocean.

Sri Lankas trade and economic development is inseparably linked to the Indian
Ocean. Thirty years after gaining independence from British colonialism Sri Lanka
had to fight the LTTE, one of the most dangerous and deadly extremist
organisations in the world. The country is just emerging after 30 years of war. The
Government has made it a priority to catch up on three decades of lost
opportunities. In post war Sri Lanka, the economy is rapidly expanding, with
massive infrastructure projects undertaken with the assistance of China, India and
a number of other states such as Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Sri Lanka is of great importance to both China and India. For them, Sri Lanka is the
closest entry point to the many sea routes in the region. Sri Lanka is also
significant to countries such as the United States and Japan and the UAE. All these
states are also interested in Sri Lanka due to the resources that have been found
in the seas around the island. For Sri Lanka, it is important to maintain good
relations with not just China but also India. Both these countries have made many
investments in Sri Lanka.

Post-war development projects in Sri Lanka indicate a considerable reliance on the


Indian Ocean and massive projects such as the Hambantota port project have an
intrinsic link with the Indian Ocean and maritime activities. Sri Lanka has a strong,
experienced navy for naval diplomacy. Sri Lanka is strategically located right at the
centre of the Indian Ocean. It lies at the heart of a region of massive economic
growth fuelled by the rise of China and India. All these present an unrivalled
window of opportunity. If the Government is able to take advantage of this, Sri
Lanka has the potential to become the centre stage of the 21st century.

[Thilini Kahandawaarachchi, BA, LLB(Hons), MA, is an experienced research and


communications professional and has served several diplomatic missions in Sri
Lanka and the private sector. She is also an Attorney-at-Law. This article is based
on her postgraduate thesis titled Sri Lanka: Centre-stage of the 21st century at
the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies. The views expressed here are
solely those of the author in her private capacity. She can be reached via email
thilini@uw.edu.]
Posted by Thavam

Вам также может понравиться