Semana1 Lecturas

Ground Motion
1
Strong Ground Motion
Evaluation of the effects of earthquakes requires the
study of ground motion
Engineering Seismology deals with vibrations related
to earthquakes, which are strong enough to cause
damage to people and environment
Time (sec)
2
Components of Ground Motion
The ground motions

produced by earthquakes at
any particular point have 3
translational and 3 rotational
components.
In practice, generally
translational components of
ground motion are measured
and the rotational
components are ignored.
3
Measuring ground motion
Seismographs are used to measure the
ground motion. Seismogram is the
output from the seismograph. It is a
record of the ground motion at a
measuring station as a function of time.
Seismograms typically record motions
in three cartesian axes (x, y, and z),
with the z axis perpendicular to the
Earth's surface and the x- and y- axes
parallel to the surface. Three inertial
seismometers are commonly used in
one instrument housing to measure
up-down, east-west, north-south
motions simultaneously. 4
Seismogram interpretation
Seismograms can provide
information on
location of epicenter
magnitude of
earthquake
source properties
Most seismograms record P, S
& surface waves
First arrival is P wave - surface waves follow and may
After a pause of several continue for tens of seconds
seconds/10s of seconds - surface waves are slower but
persist to greater distances than
the higher amplitude S
P & S waves
wave arrives
5
Wave terminology
Wave amplitude
height of a wave above its
displacement, y
zero position T= 1/f
Wave period
time taken to complete one A
cycle of motion time, t
Frequency
number of cycles per second
(Hertz)
human ear can detect
frequencies in range
15-20000 Hz A= amplitude
felt shaking during
quake has frequencies T= Period
from 20 down to 1
Hertz f = frequency
6
Ground Motion Recording
Seismometers are instruments that measure motions of the ground.

Early seismometers used optical levers or mechanical linkages to amplify
the small motions involved, recording on photographic paper.
Modern instruments use electronic sensors, amplifiers, and recording
devices. Most are broadband covering a wide range of frequencies. These
seismometers can measure motions with frequencies from 500 Hz to
1/850 Hz.
Seismometers spaced in an array can also be used to precisely locate, in
three dimensions, the source of an earthquake, using the time it takes for
seismic waves to propagate away from the hypocenter, the initiating
point of fault rupture
7
Vertical Benioff Seismometer
Consists of Black aluminium

cylinder cover: Diameter 26 cm;
Height 49.5 cm.
The outside case is latched to
prevent air currents .
Internal mass is supported on a
central spring.
Works on the principle of magnet-
coil relative motion to generate
electric current used to displace a
galvanometer (ink or light source)
writing to a drum recorder for
earthquake recording (in the
traditional way) or digitized to a file
today.
8
Ground Motion Recording
The actual ground motion at a given
location is derived from instrumentally
recorded motions. The most commonly
used instruments for engineering
purposes are strong motion
accelerographs/ accelerometers. These
instruments record the acceleration time
history of ground motion at a site, called
an accelerogram.
Digital strong motion accelerograph
By proper analysis of a recorded accelerogram to account for instrument

distortion and base line correction, the resulting corrected acceleration record can
be used by engineers to obtain ground velocity and ground displacement by
appropriate integration.
9
Types of Accelerometers
Types of Accelerometers:
Electronic : transducers produce voltage output

Servo controlled: use suspended mass with
displacement transducer
Piezoelectric: Mass attached to a piezoelectric
material, which develops electric charge on surface.
Generally accelerometers are placed in three orthogonal

directions to measure accelerations in three directions at any
time. Sometimes geophones (velocity transducers) are
attached to accelerometers to measure the seismic wave
velocities. 10
Servo-controlled Accelerometer
Principle: An acceleration a will cause the mass to

be displaced by ma/k
or alternatively, if we observe a displacement of x,
we know that the mass has undergone an
acceleration of kx/m.
11
Piezoelectric Accelerometer
Principle: piezoelectric accelerometers convert one form of energy into

another and provide an electrical signal in response to a quantity that is
being measured. Acceleration acts upon a seismic mass that is restrained by a
spring or suspended on a cantilever beam, and converts a physical force into
an electrical signal. Before the acceleration can be converted into an
electrical quantity it must first be converted into either a force or
displacement. This conversion is done via the mass spring system shown in
the figure. 12
Electronic Accelerometer
Three-direction electronic accelerometer uses the latest
integrated accelerometer chip. It features small volume,
low power consumption, zero fine toning, continuous,
stable and reliable operation
13
Geophone
Geophones (velocity transducers) are used to measure the
seismic wave velocities. They transform the mechanical wave
energy to electrical voltage and the response is captured with
time to obtain the velocity of seismic waves
14
Geophone
Traditional geophones consist of a magnetized mass fixed to
the container and a surrounding coil suspended by springs.
Natural frequency is controlled by the mass and spring
constant.
Response curve is the plot of the electric voltage output from
a geophone as it changes with different wave frequencies.
15
Array of Geophones
Vertical component geophones
Take-out points where a

geophone can be connected to
the pair of conductors
An array of geophones connected to conductors are used for

seismic surveying 16
Micro Electronic Mechanical Systems
(MEMS)
Micro Electronic Mechanical Systems (MEMS) are a recently
developed device providing Broad-Band Sensing. MEMS are
micro fabricated non-laser passive components. These are about
1 to 10 microns in size, which is smaller than the width of a human
hair. Most of the traditional moving coil type geophones are now
being replaced by MEMS.
Velocity Sensitive
Coil
MEMS
Acceleration sensitive 17
Hydrophones
Instead of recording displacement, hydrophones record changes
in pressure. A piezo-electric crystal senses the pressure change
and creates a voltage. This sensor is used for ocean floor seismic
sensing.
18
Broadband Seismometer
Broadband seismometers can detect motion over a wide range
(or band) of frequencies and usually over a large range of
amplitudes (the dynamic range). Broadband sensors respond to
most frequencies from 0.01 Hz to 50 Hz. For regional seismology,
the frequency range of interest is from 0.05 to 20 Hz therefore;
broadband sensors are most useful for recording regional
earthquakes .
19
Strong motion seismographs
The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) is a 150+ station, globally distributed,

state-of-the-art digital seismic network providing free, realtime, open access. The
map above shows the distribution of the current 150 station network with respect
to network operations.
20
National Network (RSNC)
http://200.119.88.135/RSNC/index.php/joomla-overview/red-sismologica-nacional-de-colombia
21
Recommended Reading
Kramer (1996) Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall.
http://www.iris.edu/stations/seisWorkshop04/iris_sensor_ws_9.19.05.pdf
Havskov, J. (2006) Instrumentation in earthquake seismology, Springer
John M Reynolds (2011). An Introduction to Applied and Environmental

Geophysics. Wiley Blackwell.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerometer
Norton, Harry N.(1989). Handbook of Transducers. Prentice Hall.
Patrick, Walter L. (2006)The History of the Accelerometer 1920s-1996

Prologue and Epilogue, Available at
http://www.sandv.com/downloads/0701walt.pdf
22
Ground Motion Parameters
An earthquake history can be described using Amplitude, Frequency
content, and Duration.
Amplitude: The most common measures of amplitude are
PGA: Peak ground acceleration (Horizontal- PHA & Vertical- PVA)
EPA: Effective peak acceleration
PGV: Peak ground velocity (PHV & PVV)
EPV: Effective peak velocity
PGD: Peak ground displacement
Frequency Content: The frequency content of an earthquake history is often

described using Fourier Spectra, Power spectra and response spectra.
Duration: The duration of an earthquake history is somewhat dependent on

the magnitude of the earthquake.
23
PGA: The absolute value of the largest horizontal

acceleration at a location.
It is the most important strong motion parameter. In a

stiff structure, the maximum value of the induced
force is equal to PGA Mass
24
Measurement of ground acceleration
A seismograph can be illustrated by a mass-spring-dashpot
single degree of freedom system.
The response of such system for shaking is given by

2u u
m 2 c k u m ug 0
t t
Where u is the trace displacement (relative displacement
between seismograph and ground), ug is the ground
displacement, c is the damping coefficient, k is the stiffness
coefficient. 25
Measurement of ground acceleration
If the ground displacement is simple harmonic at a circular

frequency g , the ground acceleration amplitude is
calculated from the trace displacement amplitude using
the equation: u 1

2u g 2
1
2 2
4 2 2
t 2
0
Where 0 is the undamped natural circular frequency
is tuning ratio, given by g/ 0

Is damping ratio, given by c
2 km
26
Amplitude Parameters
From the time histories of acceleration, velocity and

Source: Kramer (1996)
displacement are obtained by integrating the acceleration

records. All other amplitude parameters are calculated from
these time histories. 27
28
Strong ground motion record of Bhuj earthquake
PGA = 0.106 g
PGA = 0.08 g
PGA = 0.07 g
Strong motion accelerograms recorded on the ground floor of the Passport Office
Building at Ahmedabad during 2001 Bhuj earthquake. 29
Effective Acceleration: The acceleration which is effective

in causing structural damage. This depends on size of
loaded area, weight, damping and stiffness properties of
structure and its location with respect to epicenter.
Sustained Maximum Acceleration: The absolute values of

highest accelerations that sustained for 3 and 5 cycles in
acceleration time history are defined as 3-cycle sustained
and 5-cycle sustained accelerations respectively.
30
Design ground motion parameters
Complete reliance on peak ground acceleration for design
proved to give wrong results.
This is because, more often the peak acceleration
corresponds to very high frequencies which are out of the
range of the natural frequencies of most structures.
Therefore, large values of peak ground acceleration alone can
seldom initiate either resonance in the elastic range or be
responsible for large scale damage in the inelastic range.
Therefore, different parameters are required to characterize
the severity and the damage potential of the earthquake
ground motion. In general, these parameters are frequency
and duration of strong ground motion
31
Frequency Content Parameters
The frequency content
describes clearly how the
amplitude of ground motion is
distributed among different
frequencies. The frequency
content of a ground motion
can be obtained by
transforming the ground
motion from time domain to a
frequency domain through a
Fourier transform.
32
The frequency content of an earthquake history is often
described using Fourier Spectra, Power spectra and
response spectra.
Fourier Spectra
A periodic function (for which an earthquake history is an
approximation) can be written as

x(t ) c0 cn sin( n t n )
n 1
where cn and n are the amplitude and phase angle

respectively of the nth harmonic in the Fourier series.
33
Fourier Spectra
A spectrum is, first of all, a function of frequency.
For our purposes, it is determined from a single time
series, such as a record of the ground motion.
The spectrum in general shows some frequency-
dependent characteristic of the ground motion.
34
Fourier Spectra
The Fourier amplitude spectrum is a plot of cn versus n
Shows how the amplitude of the motion varies with
frequency.
Expresses the frequency content of a motion
The Fourier phase spectrum is a plot of n versus n
Phase angles control the times at which the peaks of
harmonic motion occur.
Fourier phase spectrum is influenced by the variation of
ground motion with time.
35
Fourier Spectra
36
Fourier Amplitude Spectrum
Fourier amplitude spectra for Gilroy No. 1 and Gilroy No.

2 strong motion records in Gilroy, California during 1989
Loma Preita Earthquake
37
Fourier Amplitude Spectrum
The Fourier amplitude spectra of actual
earthquakes are often plotted on
logarithmic scales, so that their
Fourier Amplitude (log)

characteristic shapes can be clearly
distinguished from the smoothed
curves.
Two frequencies that mark the range of
frequencies for largest Fourier fc fmax
acceleration amplitude are corner Frequency (log)
frequency (fc) and cutoff frequency
(fmax)
fc is a very important parameter because it is inversely proportional

to the cube root of seismic moment, thus indicating that large
earthquakes produce greater low-frequency motions. 38
Power Spectra
The power spectrum is a plot of G() versus n . The power
spectrum density (PSD) function is defined by the following
equation and is closely related to the Fourier amplitude
spectrum:
1 2
G ( ) cn
Td
where G( ) is the PSD, Td is the duration of the ground

motion, and cn is the amplitude of the nth harmonic in the
Fourier series. PSD function is used to characterize an
earthquake history as a random process.
39
Response Spectra
A response spectrum is used to provide
the most descriptive representation of
the influence of a given earthquake on a
structure or machine.
Response spectra are widely used in
earthquake engineering.
A response spectrum is a plot of the
maximum response amplitude
(displacement, velocity or acceleration)
versus time period of a system to a given
component of ground motion.
Using the response spectrum, peak
response of buildings to earthquakes can
be assessed and their natural frequency
can be determined.
40
Response Spectra
The response spectrum
describes the maximum
response of a structure or a
machine to a particular input
motion as a function of
frequency and damping ratio.
The seismic response spectra
from two sites (one rock and
the other soil) for the same
earthquake motion are
shown in figure. From the
figure, it is very clear that the
response of soil and rock is
quite different for the same Source: Kramer (1996)
vibration.
Response spectra with 5% damping
41
Predominant Period
Predominant Period (Tp): Period of GM1
Fourier Amplitude
vibration corresponding to the maximum GM2
value of the Fourier amplitude spectrum.
This parameter represents the frequency
content of the motion.
Tp
The predominant period for two Period
different ground motions (GM1 & GM2) Tp is same for the two
with different frequency contents can be ground motions, though
same, making the estimation of the frequency content is
different
frequency content crude.
42
Predominant Period
Variation Of Predominant Period At Rock Outcrops With

Magnitude And Distance
43
Duration
Duration of an earthquake is very important parameter that
influences the amount of damage due to earthquake. A strong
motion of very high amplitude of short duration may not cause as
much damage to a structure as a motion with moderate
amplitude with long duration can cause. This is because the
ground motion with long duration causes more load reversals,
which is important in the degradation of stiffness of the
structures and in building up pore pressures in loose saturated
soils.
Duration represents the time required for the release of
accumulated strain energy along a fault, thus increases with
increase in magnitude of earthquake.
Relative duration does not depend on the peak values. It is the
time interval between the points at which 0.05% and 0.95% of
the total energy has been recorded. 44
Duration
The duration of an earthquake history is somewhat dependent on
the magnitude of the earthquake. Figure below shows
accelerograms from six earthquakes off the Pacific coast of Mexico.
The epicentral distance was the same for all six earthquakes.
45
Duration
Bracketed duration is the measure of time between the first
and last exceedence of a threshold acceleration 0.05 g.
46
Bracketed Duration
Variation of Bracketed Duration (0.05 G Threshold) With Magnitude

And Epicentral Distance: (A) Rock Sites; (B) Soil Sites
47
Recommended Reading
Stein, S. and Wysession, M. (2003). An introduction to seismology,

earthquakes, and earth structure, Blackwell Science.
http://webshaker.ucsd.edu/homework/Ground_motion_parameters.pdf
Download free software for the estimation of ground motion parameters :

http://www.seismosoft.com/SeismoSignal-2016-Release-1
48
Other Spectral Parameters
RMS acceleration : This is the parameter that includes the
effects of amplitude and frequency, defined as
Where a(t) is the acceleration over the time domain and Td

is the duration of strong motion
AI - The Arias Intensity is a measure of the total energy at
the recording station and is proportional to the sum of the
squared acceleration. It is defined as
49
SI - The Spectrum Intensity is defined as the integral of the
psuedo-Spectral velocity curve (also known as the velocity
response spectrum), integrated between periods of 0.1 - 2.5
seconds. These quantities are motivated by the need to
examine the response of structures to ground motion, as
many structures have fundamental periods between 0.1 and
2.5 sec. The SI can be calculated for any structural damping
ratio.
Dominant frequency of ground motion (Fd) is defined as the
frequency corresponding to the peak value in the amplitude
spectrum. Thus, Fd indicates the frequency for which the
ground motion has the most energy. The amplitude
spectrum has to be smoothed before determining Fd.
50
Bandwidth BW - of the dominant frequency; measured
where the amplitude falls to 0.707 (1 /2) of the amplitude
of the dominant frequency. Again, this is based on a
smoothed amplitude spectrum.
Fourier Amplitude
Band
Period
51
Spatial variability of ground motions
The ground motion parameters at any site depend upon the
magnitude of earthquake and the distance of the site from
epicenter.
The ground motion parameters measured at a site have been
used to develop empirical relationships to predict the
parameters as functions of earthquake magnitude and source-
to-site distance. But these predictions are not accurate.
For structures that extend over considerable distance (such as
bridges and pipelines), the ground motion parameters will be
different at different part of the structure, causing differential
movement of the supports. Local variation of ground motion
parameters need to be considered for the design of such
structures.
52
One of the most important decisions in carrying out proper
design is to select a design earthquake that adequately
represents the ground motion expected at a particular site and in
particular the motion that would drive the structure to its critical
response, resulting in the highest damage potential.
The quantification of such ground motion is not easy. It requires
a good understanding of the ground motion parameters that
characterize the severity and the damage potential of the
earthquake ground motion and the seismological, geological, and
topographic factors that affect them.
53
Why is PHA important?
PHA is the most important strong motion

parameter.
In a stiff structure, the maximum value of

the induced force is equal to PHA Mass
Earthquake force is directly related to the

magnitude and intensity.
54
Why vertical accelerations are not very
important?
Structures have gravity acting against vertical
accelerations due to earthquake. Static forced
induced due to gravity provide adequate resistance
to dynamic forces induced due to vertical
accelerations during earthquake.
PVA 2/3 PHA
PVA > 2/3 PHA near epicenter
PVA < 2/3 PHA at distances far from epicenter
55
Why high peak accelerations cause little
damage?
Many times, very high peak accelerations occur at

high frequencies If these frequencies are higher
than the natural frequency of the structure, then
the damage to the structure is little.
56
Why cant peak amplitudes quantify
destruction?
Although peak amplitude is a very useful parameter, it provides no
information on the frequency content or duration. Sometimes
acceleration time histories are characterized by single cycle peak
amplitudes, that are much greater than amplitudes of other cycles
time time
Ground motion 1 Ground motion 2
57
Why cant peak amplitudes quantify
destruction?
58
Peak acceleration and effective
acceleration
Peak accelerations correspond to the highest acceleration value

recorded during earthquake at a specific location.
Effective acceleration is the acceleration which is most effective in
causing damage to structure.
Peak acceleration is independent of structural response. Effective
acceleration is based on structural response
In a free field, effective and peak accelerations are equal
Near the structure, effective acceleration is generally less than
the peak acceleration.
59
Effective acceleration
Effective acceleration is a function of size of loaded

area, frequency content, weight, embedment,
damping characteristics of the structure and its
foundation
60
PHA and earthquake Intensity
Many researchers tried to correlate PHA to

earthquake intensity and magnitude
Though this procedure is not accurate, many times,
these relations are useful to obtain PHA from
Mercallis intensity, especially for earthquakes
which have occurred prior to strong motion
instruments were available.
61
PHA and PHV
62
63
Estimation of Ground Motion Parameters
Ground motion parameters are usually estimated through predictive
relationships. These relationships express ground motion parameter in
terms of the quantities that affect it strongly.
Predictive relationships play important role in seismic hazard analysis.
The functional form of the predictive relationship is usually selected to
reflect the mechanism of the ground motion process as closely as
possible
This minimizes the number of empirical coefficients and allows to apply
the relationship with greater confidence to ground conditions that are
poorly represented in the database.
Predictive relationships are often arrived at by the regression analysis of
the available strong motion data
These relationships have to be updated time to time after major
earthquakes in the region.
64
Common forms of predictive relations are based on the following
observations:
1. Peak values of strong motion parameters are usually lognormally
distributed.
2. Earthquake magnitude M is typically defined as the logarithm of some peak
ground motion parameter Y. Thus M proportional to ln Y
3. The spreading of stress waves as they travel away from the earthquake
source attenuates the body wave and surface wave amplitudes
4. The area over which the fault rupture occurs, increases with increase in the
earthquake magnitude. Thus the effective distance R increases with the
earthquake magnitude
5. The material damping decreases the ground motion amplitudes with
distance exponentially
6. Ground motion parameters may be influenced by source characteristics like
type of fault or the site characteristics like the type of soil and topography
of the region. 65
Typical Predictive relationship
Campbell (1981) used worldwide data to obtain a relationship for the
mean PHA for sites within 50 km of fault rupture in magnitude 5.0 to 7.7
earthquakes as:
Note 1 gal = 1 cm/sec2 then, 1g = 981 gal
Where M is the local magnitude for magnitude less than 6 or surface

wave magnitude for magnitude less than 7 and R is the closest distance
to the fault rupture in kilometers.
Several other predictive relationships are available in literature, which
are developed for different regions
66
67
Attenuation Relationships
Ground Motion Parameter
Distance from the source

68
Attenuation Relationships
Modern attenuation relationships take into account many parameters,

which increases their complexity:
1) Basin Effects
2) Site Response Effects
3) Fault Type
4) Fault geometry
5) Hanging Wall/ Foot Wall
6) Main and after shock effects
IDEA DE TESIS.?
69
Example Problem
The strong motion data of an earthquake recorded for 3 seconds near epicenter with a
sampling interval of 0.1 sec is given in the table below. Plot acceleration-time history of the
earthquake. Find out PHA, PVA, vmax, maximum displacement, bracketed duration,
predominant period, sustained maximum acceleration (peaks need not be successive)
and local magnitude of the earthquake [ML = log10 A (A in micrometers)]. Comment on the
intensity of this earthquake and expected hazards.
No. Acceleration Velocity Displacement No. Acceleration Velocity Displacement

(g) (cm/sec) (cm) (g) (cm/sec) (cm)
1 -0.01 0.00 0.00 17 -0.26 -8.60 -18.52
2 -0.02 -15.59 -0.05 18 -0.01 -14.63 -18.23
3 0.01 -19.08 -0.21 19 0.03 -16.49 -17.49
4 -0.05 -21.44 -0.52 20 -0.20 -31.36 -16.79
5 0.03 -22.48 -0.99 21 -0.16 -48.31 -17.20
6 0.02 -23.57 -1.63 22 0.49 -27.86 -18.59
7 -0.01 -19.73 -2.44 23 -0.33 -3.09 -19.61
8 0.18 -9.83 -3.42 24 -0.02 -4.11 -20.08
9 0.08 -0.01 -4.65 25 0.12 -16.42 -20.52
10 0.02 3.48 -6.14 26 0.12 -17.17 -21.97
11 -0.02 10.43 -7.90 27 -0.11 -12.13 -23.64
12 -0.14 1.63 -9.84 28 -0.06 -5.24 -25.83
13 -0.16 -10.44 -12.11 29 0.01 -0.12 -29.81
14 0.04 -12.78 -14.37 30 0.01 1.25 -34.22
15 0.10 -5.41 -16.48 31 -0.04 4.66 -35.04
16 0.01 -6.36 -18.14
70
Solution
0,60
PHA = 0.49 g
PVA = 2/3 PHA = 0.327 g
0,50 Bracketed duration = 2.7-0.3 = 2.4 sec
vmax = 48.31cm/sec
predominant period = 2 p vmax/amax = 0.63 sec
0,40 (amax = 0.49 g = 480.69 cm/sec2)
sustained max. acceleration ( 3cycle) = 0.2 g (3rd
highest)
0,30 maximum displacement = 35.04 cm
0,20
0,10
0.05 g
0,00
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 0.05 g 3,5
-0,10
2nd exceedence of
1st exceedence of
-0,20
-0,30 2
1 cycle
-0,40
3
71
Exercise Problems
1. If an earthquake is recorded at four equally spaced locations along a
straight line, show the variation of all the following parameters along
the straight line if the epicenter lies on the straight line, dividing it into
two equal parts
(a) Magnitude (b) PHA (c) Duration (d) Predominant period
2. Obtain the time-acceleration response for any earthquake.
Determine the bracketed duration, predominant period and Arias
intensity
3. Download the software Seismosignal, which is a freeware. Analyze
any earthquake record in the program and obtain all possible ground
motion parameters.
72
Recommended Reading
Iyengar, R.N. and Raghu kanth, S.T.G. (2004) Attenuation of Strong Ground
Motion in Peninsular India. Seismological Research Letters, 75(4), 530-540
Sharma, M. L. (2000) Attenuation relationship for estimation of peak ground
vertical acceleration using data from strong motion arrays in India. 12th World
conference on Earthquake Engineering, New Zealand, 1964/ 4 / A, pp1-8.
Stein, S. and Wysession, M. (2003). An introduction to seismology, earthquakes,
and earth structure, Blackwell Science.
http://webshaker.ucsd.edu/homework/Ground_motion_parameters.pdf
Download free software for the estimation of ground motion parameters :
http://www.seismosoft.com/SeismoSignal-2016-Release-1
73
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
74
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Seismic hazard analysis is concerned with getting an
estimate of the strong-motion parameters at a site for
the purpose of earthquake resistant design or seismic
safety assessment.
For generalized applications, seismic hazard analysis can
also be used to prepare macro or micro zoning maps of
an area by estimating the strong-motion parameters for
a closely spaced grid of sites.
Seismic hazard analysis can be done in two ways
1. Deterministic seismic hazard Analysis (DSHA)
2. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)
75
Seismic Hazard Analysis
DSHA
In the deterministic approach, the strong-motion
parameters are estimated for the maximum
credible earthquake, assumed to occur at the
closest possible distance from the site of interest,
without considering the likelihood of its occurrence
during a specified exposure period.
PSHA
Probabilistic approach integrates the effects of all the
earthquakes expected to occur at different
locations during a specified life period, with the
associated uncertainties and randomness taken
into account.
76
Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
The DSHA approach uses the known seismic sources

sufficiently near the site and available historical seismic and
geological data to generate discrete, single-valued events or
models of ground motion at the site. Typically one or more
earthquakes are specified by magnitude and location with
respect to the site. Usually the earthquakes are assumed to
occur on the portion of the site closest to the site. The site
ground motions are estimated deterministically, given the
magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site condition.
77
DSHA consists of four primary steps:

1. Identification and characterization of all sources
2. Selection of source-site distance parameter
3. Selection of controlling earthquake
4. Definition of hazard using controlling earthquake
78
Identification and characterization of all sources

Identification
All sources capable of producing significant ground motion at
the site
Large sources at long distances
Small sources at short distances
Characterization
Definition of source geometry
Establishment of earthquake potential
79

Characterize geometry Source
Point source
Constant source-site distance Site
Volcanoes, distant short faults
Linear source Source
One parameter controls distance
Shallow, distant fault
Site 80

Characterize geometry
Three-dimensional Source
Three parameters control distance
Close sources of large dimensions
Insufficient data for accurately determining the source
geometry
Site
Source
81

Which sources are capable of producing significant motion at the
site of interest?
What is significant motion?
Parametric definition
Peak acceleration - usually ~0.05g
Spectral acceleration - at fundamental period, if known
Other parameters
Use predictive (attenuation) relationship to determine distance of
interest
82
Determination of source-site distance
Which distance to consider?
83

Typically assume shortest source-site distance (worst case
scenario)
84
M1 M3
M2
85
Selection of controlling earthquake
Establish earthquake potential - typically Mmax

Empirical correlations
Rupture length correlations
Rupture area correlations
Maximum surface displacement correlations
Theoretical determination
Slip rate correlations
86
Active Fault
The definition of active fault requires:

Movement at or near the ground surface at least once
within the past 35,000 yrs or movement of a recurring
nature within the past 500,000 yrs
Instrumentally determined Macroseismicity showing a
direct relationship with the fault;
or
A structural relationship to a capable fault, such that
movement on one could reasonably be expected to be
accompanied by movement on the other
87
Magnitude Indicators
Magnitude of past earthquakes can be estimated by

correlating observed deformation characteristics with the
known magnitudes of recorded earthquakes.
Faults do not rupture over their entire lengths. Individual
fault segments with physically controlled boundaries
rupture repeatedly.
Rupture length, area and displacement can be estimated
by post earthquake field geological investigations.
Correlating earthquake magnitude with rupture parameters
involves regression on limited data sets and consequently
produces an estimate of expected value of earthquake
magnitude.
88
Empirical relationships between Mw, Surface rupture
length L (km), rupture area A (km2) and maximum
surface displacement D (m)
89
Scatter inherent in databases used by Wells and
Coppersmith (1994) in developing the correlations.
90
Comparison of several empirical relationships used to
find the maximum magnitude from
(a) the fault rupture length and (b) the fault rupture
area
Source: Kramer (1996) 91

Tectonic Evidence
Ruff and Kanamori (1984) related earthquake
magnitude to rate of convergence of moving slabs and
the age of the subducted slab
Mw = -0.0089T +0.34V +7.96

T = age in millions of
years
V= rate of convergence
in cm/year
Diagonal lines in figure correspond to the equation. Data points represent actual
earthquakes 92
Historic Seismicity
Major tectonic features and the distribution of epicenters of available data

on past earthquakes in a typical segment of the Himalayan region
93
Theoretical Determination of Mmax
Slip rate approach

Seismic moment Mo = A D
where
= shear modulus of rock; A = rupture area;
D = average displacement over rupture area
If average displacement D relieves stress/strain built
up by movement of the plates over some period, T,
then
D=SxT
where S is the slip rate
94
Theoretical Determination of Mmax
Slip rate approach

Mo = A S T (S is the slip rate)
and the moment rate can be defined as
Mr = Mo/T = A S
Knowing the slip rate and knowing (assuming) values
of m, A, and T, the moment rate can be used to
estimate the seismic moment as
Mo = Mr T
Then Mw = log Mo/1.5 - 10.7
95
Decision should be based on ground motion parameters of
greatest interest
Consider all sources
Assume Mmax occurs at Rmin for each source
Compute ground motion parameter(s) based on Mmax and
Rmin
Determine critical value(s) of ground motion parameter(s)
96
R3
R1
M1 M3
R2
M2
97
Estimate maximum magnitude that could be produced

by any source in vicinity of site.
Find value of Rmax - corresponds to Mmax at threshold
value of parameter of interest, Ymin. (Y is ground motion
parameter)
98
Predictive relationships are used to estimate the ground motion

parameter (Y).
Most commonly used ground motion parameter is PHA
Typical predictive relationship for PHA
ln PHA (gals) = 6.74 + 0.859 M 1.80 ln (R+25) (R in km)
Cornell at al (1979)
Plot the variation of Y with R for known magnitude M
Plot these variations for all the sources
Mark the distances from the sources
Measure Y for the distance for different sources from the plots
99
Selection of controlling earthquake source
Select the controlling source for which the combination of

magnitude and distance produces highest value of Y.
100
Hazard Estimation from Mmax and R
Use M and R to determine such parameters as:
Peak acceleration
Spectral accelerations
Duration
101
Steps in DSHA: Summary
R3
R1
M3 M1 M3
M1
R2
M2 M2
(i)
(ii)
Y1
Y
2
Y .
.

Yn
(iii) (iv)
102
DSHA produces scenario earthquake for design

DSHA is based on worst-case scenario
DSHA provides no information about how likely design
earthquake is to occur during life of structure
Design earthquakes may occur every 200 yrs in some
places, every 10,000 yrs in others
DSHA may require subjective opinions on some input
parameters
Variability in effects not rationally accounted
103
Theoretical Determination of Mmax for
Himalayas
From west to east, the entire Himalaya has a length of
about 2500 km, and the width of the associated
seismic source is about 100 km.
The source of major earthquakes along the Himalaya
has been postulated as a gently dipping detachment
plane, north of the main boundary fault (MBF), at a
depth of about 20 to 30 km.
Thus, the total rupture plane of the Himalaya has an
area A of about 2.5 x 105 km2.
The shear modulus, for the Himalayan rocks can be
taken as 3.4 x 1011 dyne/cm2.
104
Theoretical Determination of Mmax for Himalayas
After accounting for the trans-Himalayan deformations, the long-

term average of the slip rate, s , along the Himalayan detachment
plane is corroborated to be about 15 mm/year.
This gives the moment rate
Assuming that the recurrence period (T)for largest earthquakes

with magnitude 8(+) anywhere in the Himalaya is about 40 years,
105
Example Problem
The site shown in the Figure below is located near four active faults.
Fault A is a normal fault, faults B and C are strike-slips faults and
fault D is a reverse fault. The coordinates of the site and faults given
in the figure are in km. Assuming that only linear segment can
rupture in an individual event, determine the anticipated peak
acceleration at the site.
Empirical relationships between Mw, Surface rupture
length L (km), rupture area A (km2) and maximum
surface displacement D (m)
107
Solution
1. There are total 6 fault segments to be considered. Fault B has
three segments (B1, B2 and B3)
2. The closest distance of the fault segment from the site (R) is
computed.
3. Length of each fault segment is calculated
4. Maximum magnitude associated with each fault is obtained from
the empirical relationships given by wells and coppersmith
(1994) for the particular fault type given in the problem.
5. Peak acceleration is obtained by predictive relationship of
Cornell et al. (1979)
ln PHA (gals) = 6.74 + 0.859 M 1.80 ln (R+25) (R in km)
Calculations are shown.

Solution
Fault Distance to Length Mmax PHA
site (g)
R (km)
A 33.0 70.7 7.3 0.305
B1 42.7 22.4 6.7 0.138
B2 18.0 30.0 6.8 0.340
B3 17.5 22.4 6.7 0.319
C 5.0 12.0 6.4 0.467
D 25.0 31.6 6.8 0.260
Calculations indicate that the peak acceleration site is

0.467 g produced by an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 at
site C.
Exercise Problem
Using DSHA compute the PHA for the site below. Use the
following attenuation relationship.
ln PHA (gals) = 6.74 + 0.859 M 1.8 ln (R+25)

(note: R in km)
Source 3, Mmax= 6
Source 2, Mmax= 6.5
site
40 km
Source 1, Mmax= 7.5
40 km
Recommended Reading
Reiter, L. (1990) Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and insights,

Columbia university press.
Anderson, J.G. and J.N. Brune (1999). Probabilistic hazard analysis without the
ergodic assumption, Seism. Res. Lett. 70, 19-23.
Cornell, C.A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58,
1583-1606.
http://geo.cv.nctu.edu.tw/prob/download/SeismicHazardAnalysis.pdf
https://www.usbr.gov/ssle/damsafety/risk/BestPractices/Chapters/II-3-
20150620.pdf
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis (PSHA) Part I
112
Probabilities
Supongamos que la estadstica
muestra que hay una correlacin
entre que los partidos ganados de
la Seleccin Colombia y los goles
que meti el Tino cuando jugaba
de titular. S el Tino mete un gol,
Colombia tiene 50% de
probabilidad de ganar. S hace
dos goles, 60%; y si hace tres
goles 70%. S al Tino lo echan por
cochino, la probabilidad baja a
25%. S no hace goles, de 50%.
113
Adems, las estadsticas futboleras muestran que
cuando el Tino se enfrenta a Chilavert (Mostro
Arquero de Paraguay), tiene las siguientes
probabilidades:
Echan = 20%
Sin goles = 20%
Un gol = 30%
Dos Goles = 15%
Tres Goles = 10%
Cul es la probabilidad de que Colombia gane el

prximo partido con Paraguay teniendo en cuenta
que el Tino y Chilavert van a jugar?
114
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
DSHA PSHA
Assumes single scenario Assumes many scenarios
Selects single magnitude for Considers all magnitudes
each seismic source associated with all seismic
sources
Selects the closest distance Considers all possible
between the source and site distances between source
and site
Assumes effects due to Considers all effects
magnitude and distance
Why PSHA?
Because there is lot of

uncertainty involved in the
time of occurrence,
magnitude and size of the
earthquakes
Assumes many scenarios
Considers all magnitudes associated with all

seismic sources
Considers all possible distances between source
and site
Considers all effects
PSHA characterizes uncertainties in the

location, size, frequency and effects of
earthquake and combines all of them to
compute the probability of different
levels of ground shaking
PSHA consists of four primary steps:

1. Identification and characterization of all sources
2. Characterization of seismicity of each source
3. Determination of ground motions from each source
4. Probabilistic calculations
Uncertainty in source to site distance:

Where on fault is the rupture most likely to occur?
Source
Site
Source to site
distance depends on
where rupture occurs

Where on fault is the rupture most likely to occur? Lot of possibilities
Source
Site
Source to site
distance depends on
where rupture occurs
Probability Distribution Function
l
rmin dl Lf
r source
For linear source shown, the r+dr
probability of earthquake to site
occur on the small segment of
the fault between L=l and L=l+dl
is same as the probability that it
occurs between R=r and R=r+dr
fR(r)
Where fL (l) and fR (r) are the

probability distribution functions
for the variables L and R. r
rmin rmax
121
l
rmin
r dl Lf source
r+dr
site
If earthquakes are assumed

to uniformly distributed over
the length of the fault
fR(r)
r
rmin rmax
122

Two practical ways to determine fR(r)
Draw series of concentric

rmin circles with equal radius
increment
Measure length of Li
between each pair of
concentric circles
rmax
Assign weight equal to Li/L
to each corresponding
distance

Two practical ways to determine fR(r)
Divide entire fault into

rmin equal length segments
Compute the distance of
site to center for each
segment
rmax
Create histogram of source
to site distance. Accuracy
increases with increasing
number of segments
Probability Distribution
For example if we roll a single die, the probability we roll a 2 = 1/6
We usually write this in "short-hand" as Pr (2) = 1/6
So, Pr (even number) = 3/6 or 1/2
If we toss a single coin, Pr(heads) = 1/2
If we toss two coins, Pr (exactly 2 heads) = 1/4
For any event like this, we can draw a probability histogram, which
is simply a picture that shows all the possible outcomes and their
corresponding probabilities.
For a single roll of a die, the probability histogram looks like:
1/6
1 2 3 4 5 6 125
Probability Histogram
For the number of heads in a toss of two coins, the
probability histogram is:
1/2
1/4
No heads 0 1 2
126
Probability Histogram
Divide source into equal

volume increments
Compute the distance of
site to center for each
element
Create histogram of source
to site distance. Accuracy
increases with increasing
number of segments
127
Uncertainty in earthquake magnitude:
Determination of Mmax is same as for DSHA

Empirical Correlations
Rupture length correlations
Rupture area correlations
Maximum surface displacement correlations
Theoretical determination using slip rate correlations
Knowledge of the distribution of magnitude is important

Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
NM log N M
M M
log M
Mean annual rate of

Exceedance
M = NM/T
M
log M
0.01 100 years
0.001 1000 years

Return period log TR
(recurrence interval)
M
TR=1/M
log M
10a
Gutenberg-Ritcher log TR
Recurrence Law 0
M
log M = a-bM
Gutenberg Ritcher Recurrence Law

log M = a-bM
Implies that earthquake magnitudes are
exponentially distributed (exponential pdf)
Can also be written as
llln M = M
For worldwide data (Circumpacific belt)
logm= 7.93-0.96M
M=6 m=148/yr TR=0.0067yr
M=7 m=16.2/yr TR=0.062yr
M=8 m=1.78/yr TR=0.562yr
M=12 m=0.437/yr TR=2.29yr
M>12 every two years?


log M = a-bM
Implies that earthquake magnitudes are exponentially
distributed
The equation can also be written as
lln M = M
Then,
M = 10a-bM = exp[ M]
where =2.303a and =2.303b

log M = a - bM
If a lower threshold value is sent of the Magnitude as m0,
Probability of an earthquake of magnitude <m and >m0 is
given as
m m
P[M m | M m 0 ] 1 e ( m m0 )
m
0
This is called Bounded Gutenberg Ritcher Recurrence

0
Law
Neglecting events below minimum magnitude, mo
m = nexp[- (m - mo)] for m > mo (McGuire and Arabasz, 1990)
where n= exp[a- mo].
FM (m) = P[M<m| M>m0] = (m0 m)/ m0 = 1-exp (-(m-m0))
Then,
fM(m) = d/dm (FM(m)) = e-m-mo)
Every source has some maximum magnitude

Distribution must be modified to account for Mmax
Bounded G-R recurrence law
exp[ (m m0 )] exp[ (mmax m0 )]
m v
1 exp[ (mmax m0 )]
Where n = exp [a m0) and a a ln (10 )and b ln (10 ) 137

Bounded G-R
logm Recurrence Law
Mmax M

Characteristic Earthquake Recurrence Law
Paleoseismic investigations
Show similar displacements in each earthquake
Individual faults produce characteristic earthquakes
Characteristic earthquake occur at or near Mmax
Could be caused by geologic constraints
More research, field observations needed
139
Characteristic Earthquake Recurrence Law
Seismicity data
Geologic data
Mmax M
Predictive relationships
Standard error use to evaluate conditional probability
ln Y
P[Y > Y*l M=M*, R=R*]
Y=Y*
lnY
M=M*
R=R* log R
141
Predictive relationships
Standard error use to evaluate conditional probability
ln Y
P[Y > Y*l M=M*, R=R*]

lnY
Y=Y*
M=M*
R=R* log R
142
Recommended Reading

1583-1606.
https://www.usbr.gov/ssle/damsafety/risk/BestPractices/Chapters/II-3-
20150620.pdf
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis (PSHA) Part II
144
Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process- describes number of occurrences of an
event during a given time interval or spatial region.
1. The number of occurrences in one time interval are
independent of the number that occur in any other time
interval.
2. Probability of occurrence in a very short time interval
is proportional to length of interval.
3. Probability of more than one occurrence in a very
short time interval is negligible.
145
Poisson process
m ne m
P[N n]
n!
where n is the number of occurrences and is the
average number of occurrences in the time interval of
interest.
146
Poisson process
Letting = t
P[N n]
t n e t
n!
Then
P[ N 0] P[ N 1] P[ N 2] P[ N 3] .....P[ N ]
=1- P[N=0]
=1- e-t
147
148
ln(1 P)

t
149
Then, the annual rate of exceedance for an event with a 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 yrs is
ln(1 0.1)
0.0021
50
The corresponding return period is TR= 1/ = 475 yrs.

For 2% in 50 yrs, = 0.000404/yr TR = 2475 yrs.
150
Summary of uncertainties
Location fR(r) Source-site distance pdf
Size fM(m) Magnitude pdf
Effects P[Y>Y* l M=M*, R=R*] Attenuation

relationship
including standard
error
Timing P=1-e-t
Poisson model
151
Combining uncertainties probability computations
P[A] = P[AB1] + P[A B2] +.+ P[A BN]
P[A] = P[A|B1]P[B1] + P[A|B2] P[B2] +.+ P[A|BN] P[BN]
Total Probability
B2 B3
B1 Theorem
A BB
B4 B5
152
Combining uncertainties probability computations

Applying total probability theorem,
where X is a vector of parameters.
We assume that M and R are the most important parameters

and that they are independent. Then,
153
Combining uncertainties-probability computations
Above equation gives the probability that y* will be

exceeded if an earthquake occurs. Can convert probability to
annual rate of exceedance by multiplying probability by
annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes.
where
154
If the site of interest is subjected to shaking from more than one

site (say Ns sites), then
y v i P [Y y* | m, r] f
Ns
* Mi (m)f Ri (r)dmdr
i 1
For realistic cases, pdfs for M and Rare too complicated to

integrate analytically. Therefore, we do it numerically.
155
Dividing the range of possible magnitudes and distances into NM

and NR increments, respectively
y v i P [Y y* | m , r ] f
Ns N M N R
* j k Mi (m j )f Ri (rk )mr
i 1 j1 k 1
This expression can be written, equivalently as
y v i P [Y y* | m , r ] P[M m ]P[R r ]
Ns N M N R
* j k j k
i 1 j1 k 1
156

What does it mean?
All possible distances are

considered- contribution
of each is weighted by its
probability of occurrence
y v i P [Y y* | m , r ] P[M m ]P[R r ]
Ns N M N R
* j k j k
i 1 j1 k 1
All sites are All possible magnitudes are

considered considered- contribution of
All possible effects are
considered- each weighted each is weighted by its
by its conditional probability of occurrence
probability of occurrence
157
Compute conditional probability for each element on grid
Enter in matrix (spreadsheet cell)
P[Y>Y*| M=m2, R=r1]

ln Y
P[Y>Y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y>Y*| M=m2, R=r3]
Y = Y*
ln Y
r1 r2 log R
r3
rN
158
Combining uncertainties-
probability computations Seismic hazard curve shows the
mean annual rate of exceedance of
a particular ground motion
parameter. A seismic hazard curve
is the ultimate result of a PSHA.
log amax
log TR
amax
159
Using seismic hazard curves
Combining uncertainties-probability
computations
Contribution of sources
Can break values down into
contributions from each source.
Plot seismic hazard curves for each
Total
source and total seismic hazard
curve (equal to sum of source
curves)
log amax
2 Curves may not be parallel, may

log TR
cross
1 Shows which source(s) most
important.
3
amax
160

Combining uncertainties- Can develop seismic hazard curves
probability computations for different ground motion
parameters
Total Peak acceleration
Special accelerations
log amax
Other
log TR
Choose desired value

Read corresponding parameter
values from seismic hazard curves
amax, Sa
161
Can develop seismic hazard curves
for different ground motion
parameters
Peak acceleration
log amax
Special accelerations
log TR
Other
Choose desired value
Read corresponding parameter
values from seismic hazard curves
amax, Sa
162
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
Common question:
What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond
to?
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 Total hazard
25km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 includes contributions
from all combinations
50km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 of
M&R
75km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02
100km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02
125km 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01
150km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00
175km 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00
200km 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

163
Common question
What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond to?
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
Total hazard includes
25km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 contributions from all
combinations of M & R.
0.03 0.02
Break hazard down into
50km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04
75km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02 contributions to see
where hazard is coming
100km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02 from.
125km 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 M=7.0 at R=75km
150km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00
175km 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00
200km 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

164
165
Logic tree methods

Not all uncertainty can be described by probability distributions
Most appropriate model may not be clear

Attenuation relationship
Magnitude distribution
etc
Experts may disagree on model parameters
Fault segmentation
Maximum magnitude
etc
166
Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
m Model Distribution Mmax
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5) Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5)
Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
167
Logic tree methods
Model Distribution Mmax
m
Sum of weighing factors

7.0 (0.2)
G-R
coming out of each 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7)
node must equal 1.0
BJF
7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5) Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5)
Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
168
Logic tree methods
m
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5) Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S 0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5)
Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
169
Logic tree methods
m
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5) Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S 0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5)
Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
170
Logic tree methods
Recent PSHA logic tree included:
Crustal areal source zones

7 source zones
2 attenuation relationships
3 maximum magnitudes
2 recurrence models
3 source depths
252 terminal branches
Total PSHA required analysis of 612 combinations
171
Recommended Reading

1583-1606.
http://www.ce.memphis.edu/7119/PDFs/FEAM_Notes/Topic05a-
SeismicHazardAnalysisNotes.pdf
172
Exercise Problems in PSHA
173
Problem 1
The hypothetical vertical fault segment shown in Fig.1 is represented as a quarter-
circle. On the same graph, plot histograms of expected epicentral distance for
motions at site A and site B assuming:
(a) Earthquakes are equally likely to occur at any point on the fault segment.
(b) Earthquakes are twice as likely to occur at the midpoint of the fault segment as
at either end and the likelihood is linearly distributed between the midpoint
and the ends.
Site B
12km
Fault
Fig 1 N
30km
Site A
30km 12km 174
Problem 2
In a hypothetical seismically active region, earthquakes have been recorded

over an 80-year period. Part of the record is instrumental, but part is not. Combining
all available data, it appears that the earthquakes have been distributed as follows:
MOMENT MAGNITUDE NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES
3-4 1800
4-5 150
5-6 11
>6 1
(a) Estimate the Gutenberg-Richter parameters for the region.

(b) Neglecting earthquakes of magnitude less than 3, compute the probability that
an earthquake in the region will have a moment magnitude between 5.5 and 6.5.
(c) Repeat Part (b) assuming that paleoseismic evidence indicates that the region is
not capable of producing earthquakes of moment magnitude greater than 6.5.
175
Problem 3
The seismicity of a particular region is described by the Gutenberg-Ritcher
recurrence law:
log m=4.0-0.7M
(a) What is the probability that at least one earthquake of magnitude

greater than 7.0 will occur in a 10-year period? In a 250-year period?
(b) What is the probability that exactly one earthquake of magnitude greater
than 7.0 will occur in a 10-year period? In a 50 year period? In a 250-year
period?
(c)Determine the earthquake magitude that would have a 10% probability of

being exceeded at least once in a 50-year period?
176
Problem 4
Using given seismic hazard curve, estimate the probability of exceeding
amax = 0.3g in a 50 year period and in 500 years period
log amax
log TR
0.001
amax
177
Problem 5
Using seismic hazard curve, estimate the peak acceleration that has 10%
probability of being exceeded in a 50 yr period.
log amax
0.0021 log TR
amax =0.21g 178

Lecture-19
Wave Propagation Theories
179
The propagation of seismic waves is most easily

understood by first considering an unbounded or
infinite medium. A simple, 1D idealization of an
unbounded medium is that of an infinitely long rod or
bar. Using basic requirements of equilibrium of forces
and compatibility of displacements, and using strain-
displacement and stress-strain relationships, a one-
dimensional wave equation can be derived and
solved.
Three different types of vibration can occur in a thin
rod: longitudinal vibration; torsional vibration; and
flexural vibration.
One dimensional Wave propagation:
Longitudinal vibration (P waves) Torsional Vibration (S waves)

Wave
Particle
Particle movemen
movement t
Flexural Vibration
(Surface waves)
Particle
movemen
t
Longitudinal waves in infinitely long rod
Stress at the left end of the

element = x0
dx
Stress at the right end of the

element = ( / x)dx
x0 x
Dynamic equilibrium of
element requires
x 2u
x0 dx A x0 A Adx
x t 2
dx
Cross-sectional Area = A
Youngs modulus = E
Poissons ratio = n
Density =
Wave propagation velocity = vp
Vp = sqrt (M/)
M = Constrained modulus
x 0
x0
xo = x (x0 , x
dx
t)
M
vp p wave velocity

u
x Mx , x
x
Stress-strain Strain-
relationship displacement
relationship
, E n, A
dx
x 0
xo = x (x0 , t) x0 dx
x
u= u (x0 , t) u
u dx
x
x 0
x0
xo = x (x0 , t) x
dx
x u
x0 dx A x 0 A A dx 2
2
x t
x 2u
2
x t
stresses displacements
x u
x dx A x 0 A Adx 2
2
x t
Simplifying and expressing stress in terms of
displacement, we get one dimensional wave equation
as
x 2u

x t 2
This is one-dimensional equation of motion
2u 2 2
u
vp
t 2 x 2
Constrained Modulus M
dx
xx =1/E [xx nyy n zz ] Cross-sectional Area = A

Youngs modulus = E
Poissons ratio = n
yy =1/E [yy nxx n zz ] Density =
Wave propagation velocity = vp
zz =1/E [zz nxx n yy ] vp = sqrt (M/ )
M = Constrained modulus
yy and zz are zero for constrained conditions
And constrained modulus M = xx/ xx

1 n
Solve and get M
1 n (1 2n )
E
M = xx/ xx
xx = M xx = M u/ x
x 2u

x t 2
2u 2u 2u M 2u
M ;
x 2 t 2 t 2 x 2

2u 2 2
u
vp
t 2 x 2 M
vp

x 0
x0
xo = x (x0 , t) x
dx
M
vp

How fast does the particle in the

rod move when the wave passes
by?
Particle velocity v = u/ t
u = x x (from strain-displacement relationship)
v = u/ t = x x/ t
x = vp t (from the definition of wave propagation velocity)
x = x/ M
x x x
v vp vp
M v 2p v p
Particle velocity is proportional to axial stress. vp is
the specific impedance of the material.
x 0
x0
xo = x (x0 , t) x
dx
x 2u
2
x t
u
x Mx , x
x
1 n
M
1 n (1 2n )
E
2u M 2u 2u 2 u
2
or vp 2
t 2
x 2 t 2
x
Torsional waves in an infinitely long rod
Tx0 d
Tx0+( T/ x) dx
dx
Waves are propagating in only one direction

Particle movement is in planes perpendicular to the
direction of wave propagation
But the rod is subjected to angular deformation due to
S wave propagation.
Particle movement
Torsional waves involve Tx0 d
rotation of the rod about its Tx0+( T/ x)
own axis.
dx dx
The particle motion is

Tx0
T
dx Tx0 J dx
2
constrained to planes x t 2
perpendicular to the direction Where J = Polar moment of

of wave propagation. inertia of the rod about its axis

For a bar of constant cross- T GJ
section, the equation of motion x
here is T 2
J
2 G 2 2
x t 2
v s2
t 2 x 2 x 2
T 2
Tx 0 dx Tx0 J dx
x t 2
T 2
J
x t 2
Torque Rotation
T 2
Tx 0 dx Tx 0 J dx
x t 2
T 2
J
x t 2

T GJ
x
2 G 2 2
2
vs
t 2 x 2 x 2
This is also 1-D wave equation (wave propagation in one

direction), but particle movement is in two planes.
Solution of 1D wave equation
2u 2u T = 2p/
1 D wave equation:
2
vp
u
t 2 x 2
Solution for the above equation can be expressed as t

u (x, t) = A cos (t k x) + B cos (t + k x)
First and seconds terms represent harmonic waves
u
propagating in positive and negative x directions respectively
k = wave number = /v x
= 2p/k
The same solution can be written using complex notation
u ( x , t ) C e i t kx D e i wt kx
Recommended Reading
http://geo.cv.nctu.edu.tw/EngGeo/download/Seismic_Wav
e_Propagation1D.pdf
http://octavia.ce.washington.edu/drlayer/theory/T-Basic-
Concepts.html
199
Lecture-20
Seismic Wave Propagation
200
Solution of 1D wave equation
2u 2
2 u T = 2p/
1 D wave equation: vp
t 2
x 2
u
Solution for the above equation can be expressed as t
u (x, t) = A cos (t k x) + B cos (t + k x)
First and seconds terms represent harmonic waves
propagating in positive and negative x directions u
respectively x
= 2p/k
k = wave number = /v
The same solution can be written using complex
notation
u ( x , t ) C e i t kx D e i wt kx
Waves in semi-infinite body
For waves whose motion is concentrated in a shallow zone near the
free surface (surface waves), earth is idealized as semi-infinite body
with planar free surface.
Plane wave
These plane waves in homogeneous

elastic half-space represent Rayleigh y
waves. Particle motion occurs in the x
x-z plane in figure.
If the semi-infinite half-space is
overlain by a layer of material with
lower body wave velocity, Love waves
can develop.
z
i.e. When ( G1/ 1 < G2/ 2 ) in figure x
Surficial
H z 1, G 1 layer
2, G2 Half-
space
Three-Dimensional wave propagation
xy
yz
xy
zy
x
zx xz
z
Three-dimensional stress on an element.

Equations of Equilibrium
x xy xz
Xb 0
x y z
xy y yz
Yb 0
x y z
xz yz z
Zb 0
x y z
Strain Displacement
(u,v,w) are the x, y and z components of

displacement.
u u v
x xy
x y x
v u w
y xz
y z x
w w v
z yz
z y z
Stress-Strain Relationships
x 1 n n n 0 0 0 x
n 1 n n 0 0 0
y y
z E n n 1 n 0 0 0 z

xy (1 n)(1 2n) 0 0 0 0 0 xy
(12n)
2
yz 0 0 0 0
(12n)
0 yz
(12 n)
2
zx 0 0 0 0 0 2 zx
E
Note :G
2(1 n )
Stress-Strain Relationships
For isotropic, linear elastic material,
x 2m 0 0 0x

y 2m 0 0 0 y
z 2m 0 0 0 z

xy 0 0 0 m 0 0 xy
yz 0 0 0 0 m 0 yz

zx 0 0 0 0 0 mzx
Where and m and Lames constants

Elastic constants
For isotropic, linear elastic material,
3 2 m
E m
m
2m
K
3
G m

n
2 m
Where and m and Lames constants

Equations of motion for 3D case are:

Equations of motion for an elastic solid for 3D case

are:

m
2 u
m 2u
t 2 x

m
2v
m 2 v
t 2 x

m
2w
m 2 w
t 2 x
Where is the volumetric strain = x+y+z

& m are Lame constants and
2 = Laplacian operator = 2

2

2
x 2 y 2 z 2
Solution of the 3D equations of motion
Solving 3 D equations of motion for an isotropic, linear, elastic

solid produce equations for two types of waves, which can travel
through unbounded solid. These are called body waves (P and S
waves).
Longitudinal waves are P waves, which involve no rotation
Transverse waves in two mutually perpendicular directions are S
waves, which involve no volume change
SH waves: S- waves in which particle motion is in horizontal
plane
SV waves: S- waves in which particle motion is in vertical plane
Waves in layered body
Incident P-wave: P-Reflection, P-transmitted, S-reflection, S-
transmitted
When a P-wave hits a velocity boundary, it makes three P-waves: a refracted, a

transmitted, and a reflected wave. But, it also forms a reflected and
transmitted S-wave too. Snells law still works, except when the outgoing ray is
a S-wave, the S-wave velocity must be used in Snells Law.
Refraction of a (P or S) ray due to velocity change: Snells Law
reflecte When a ray traverses a velocity

inciden
d contrast (change), the ray MUST
t refract. Because otherwise the
wavefront would tear apart
which the physics does not
permit. Also, in most all cases a
transmit
reflected wave is made.
ted
All waves refract: e.g., seismic,
light, EM, water waves.
The refraction law: Snells Law. Note that For a wave reflected from a flat
all angles between the ray and interface interface, the angle of incidence
are reckoned with respect to the surface EQUALS the angle or reflection.
sin(1 ) sin( 2 )
normal.
incidence reflection
v1 v2
Snells Law derivation
An explosion makes a wavefield at (S). The waves travel outwards as

represented by the wavefront at different times. Where the wave hits the
velocity interface, the waves refracts (and reflects).
What determines the angle of the refraction into the rock-2 layer ?
T
Derivation of
0 1 T Snells Law
1

v1 1A
B
v2 1 1
2
sin(1 ) v1 1
2 2
2
T
sin( 2 ) v2 2
T
sin(1 ) sin( 2 ) sin(1 ) sin( 2 )
0

sin(1 ) 1
1

AB 1
AB sin(1 ) 1 2 v1 v2

sin( 2 ) 2

AB 2
AB sin( ) 2 v1 f * 1 v2 f * 2
The ratios of the velocities and wavelengths and sin(angles) are all equal.
Otherwise, the wavefield would tear apart.
Tracing rays using Snells Law in multiple layer medium
Tracing a raypath through multiple layers is

simple. It is just the process of using Snells
Law sequentially each successive interface.
Note that the angle (i1) at the top and the

bottom (i1) of a layer is the same.
If the lower layers velocity increases

( v2 > v1 ), the ray refracts AWAY from the
interface normal. In the converse, the ray
refracts TOWARDS the normal.
sin ( 1 ) v
1
sin ( 2 ) v2
If the deeper layers have a monotonic
increase in velocity, the ray will continue to
flatten out with depth. Eventually, the ray
will reach its turning depth where it goes
exactly horizontal and will start to go up.
Using Snells Law for a spherical geometry (not Cartesian)
r1 sin(1 ) r2 sin(2 )

v1 v2
Note that the angle at the top and
the bottom of a spherical shell are
NOT the same. This is because the
layers are curved.
But, if one is just calculating the

angles on either side of an
interface, then the two radius
values (r1 and r2 ) are the same and
the Cartesian form of Snells Law is
operative (i.e., the radius scaling
cancels out in the spherical Snells
Law.
Waves perpendicular to boundaries
Transmitted SV
wave
Reflected SV
wave
Incident SV
wave
SV wave: S-waves polarized in the
vertical plane
Waves perpendicular to boundaries
Transmitted SH
wave
Reflected SH
wave
Incident SH
wave
SH wave: S-waves polarized in the
horizontal plane
Inclined waves
Refracted SV wave
Refracted P wave
Reflected P wave
Incident P wave Reflected SV wave
Inclined waves
Refracted SV wave
Refracted P wave
Reflected P wave
Incident SV Reflected SV wave
wave
Inclined waves
Refracted SH wave
Incident SH Reflected SH wave

wave
Vs= 150 m/sec

Vs= 300 m/sec
Vs= 450 m/sec
Vs= 600 m/sec
Vs= 750 m/sec
Attenuation of stress waves
The amplitude of stress waves in real

materials decrease or attenuate with
distance
Two primary sources for the attenuation
Material Damping
Radiation Damping
Material Damping
A portion of the elastic energy of stress

waves is lost due to heat generation
Specific energy decreases as the waves
travel through the material
Consequently the amplitude of the stress
waves decreases with the distance
Radiation Damping
The specific energy could also decrease

due to geometric spreading
Consequently the amplitude of the stress
waves decreases with the distance even
though the total energy remains constant
Recommended Reading
Chapman, C.H. (2004) Fundamentals of Seismic Propagation, Cambridge

University Press.
Sato, H., and M. Fehler (1998) Seismic wave propagation and scattering
in the heterogeneous earth, Springer.
http://geo.cv.nctu.edu.tw/EngGeo/download/Seismic_Wave_Propagation1D.p
df
http://octavia.ce.washington.edu/drlayer/theory/T-Basic-Concepts.html
228

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Ground Motion

The ground motions

Seismometers are instruments that measure motions of the ground.

Consists of Black aluminium

By proper analysis of a recorded accelerogram to account for instrument

Electronic : transducers produce voltage output

Generally accelerometers are placed in three orthogonal

Principle: An acceleration a will cause the mass to

Principle: piezoelectric accelerometers convert one form of energy into

Vertical component geophones

Take-out points where a

An array of geophones connected to conductors are used for

The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) is a 150+ station, globally distributed,

Havskov, J. (2006) Instrumentation in earthquake seismology, Springer

John M Reynolds (2011). An Introduction to Applied and Environmental

Norton, Harry N.(1989). Handbook of Transducers. Prentice Hall.

Patrick, Walter L. (2006)The History of the Accelerometer 1920s-1996

Frequency Content: The frequency content of an earthquake history is often

Duration: The duration of an earthquake history is somewhat dependent on

PGA: The absolute value of the largest horizontal

It is the most important strong motion parameter. In a

The response of such system for shaking is given by

If the ground displacement is simple harmonic at a circular

Where 0 is the undamped natural circular frequency

is tuning ratio, given by g/ 0

From the time histories of acceleration, velocity and

displacement are obtained by integrating the acceleration

Source: Kramer (1996)

Effective Acceleration: The acceleration which is effective

Sustained Maximum Acceleration: The absolute values of

where cn and n are the amplitude and phase angle

Source: Kramer (1996)

Fourier amplitude spectra for Gilroy No. 1 and Gilroy No.

Fourier Amplitude (log)

fc is a very important parameter because it is inversely proportional

where G( ) is the PSD, Td is the duration of the ground

Predominant Period (Tp): Period of GM1

Source: Kramer (1996)

Variation Of Predominant Period At Rock Outcrops With

Source: Kramer (1996)

Source: Kramer (1996)

Variation of Bracketed Duration (0.05 G Threshold) With Magnitude

Kramer (1996) Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall.

Stein, S. and Wysession, M. (2003). An introduction to seismology,

Download free software for the estimation of ground motion parameters :

Where a(t) is the acceleration over the time domain and Td

PHA is the most important strong motion

In a stiff structure, the maximum value of

Earthquake force is directly related to the

Many times, very high peak accelerations occur at

Ground motion 1 Ground motion 2

Peak accelerations correspond to the highest acceleration value

Effective acceleration is a function of size of loaded

Many researchers tried to correlate PHA to

Note 1 gal = 1 cm/sec2 then, 1g = 981 gal

Where M is the local magnitude for magnitude less than 6 or surface

Distance from the source

Modern attenuation relationships take into account many parameters,

No. Acceleration Velocity Displacement No. Acceleration Velocity Displacement

The DSHA approach uses the known seismic sources

DSHA consists of four primary steps:

Identification and characterization of all sources

Identification and characterization of all sources

P[Y > Yl M=M, R=R*]

Effects P[Y>Y* l M=M, R=R] Attenuation