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    Travel Estimation Techniques PDF

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    Kong NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Report 365 Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning WILLIAM A. MARTIN NANCY A. NCGUCKIN Barton-Aschman Associates, inc. ‘Washington, OC Subjoet eas Planing and Adinsaton esearch Sponsored by the American Association of Sate Highway and Transportation Official in Cooperation vith te Federal Highway Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NariowAL EseancH Court, NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998 CONTENTS 10 SUMMARY CHAPTER 1 Introduction Purpose and Organization of Manual, 4 ‘Travel-Demand Forecasting: Trends and Issues, 4 ‘Areas of Development, ‘The Four-Stop Travel-Demand Porecasting Process, S Model Iceration and Equilibrium, 6 ‘Summary of Techniques and Parameters, ‘Trip Generation, 7 ‘Trip Distibation, 7 External Trip Estimation, 8 Mode-Choice Analysis, 8 Automobile Occupancy Characteristics, 8 ‘Time-of-Day Characteristics, 8 ‘Traffic Assignment, 8 Capacity Analysis, 9 Developrrent Density/Highway Spacing Relationships, 9 Data Sources, 9 se Study, 9 ‘Summary, 9 CHAPTER 2. Building a Transportation Database Tntroduetion 10 Network Data, 10 Base Network, 10 Source for Network Data, 10 Digitized Map Files, 10 Scaled Maps, 11 Network Coverage, 11 Network attributes, 12 Link Distance, 12 Link Speeds, 12 Link Capacity, 12 ‘Area Type Considerations, 13 Final Network Database, 13, ‘Transit Networks, 13, Socioeconomic Data, 13 Structure of the TAZs, 13 Relationstip to Census Geography, 14 TAZ and Highway Network Comparability, 14 Sources for Socioeconomic Data, 14 Data Souree Deficiencies, 15 Control Totals forthe Database, 15, Impact and Uses of GIS on Databases, 15 Geocoding, 15 Socioeconomic Dats, 16 Cartography, 16 Case Study, 16 Socioeconomic Data, 16 Network Description, 18 ‘Traffic Count Data, 18 Summary, 19 CHAPTER 3. Trip Generation Introduction, 20 Basis for Development, 20, Site-Speciie Vehicle Trip Rats, 20 ‘Model Trip Rates, 22 Data Require for Application, 24 Site-Specic Vehicle Trip Rates, 24 Model Trip Rates, 24 Trip Generation Data and Examples of Use, 27 Sit-Spectie Webicle Tips, 27 Model Trip Rates, 28 Balancing Productions and Altractions, 32 Limitation of Data, 33, Case Study, 34 ‘Trip Productions, 34 ‘Trip Atractions, 34 Balancing Productions and Attractions, 35 36 CHAPTER 4 Trip Distribution Introduction, 36 Basis for Development, 36 ‘Theory of the Gravity Model, 36 Trip Distribution Process, 38 ‘Travel Impedances, 38 { Inteazonal Travel Times, 39 ‘Terminal Times, 39 Choice of Friction Factors, 39 ‘Average Trp Lengths, 40 ‘Trip-Length Frequency Distribution, 41 Look-Up Tables Versus Formulas, 41 Creation of Trip Tables, 43 ‘Method for Spliting Trip Tables for Coridor and Subarea Applications, 44 Case Study, 45 Estimation of Travel Times, 45, Inurazonal Times, 45, f Terminal Times, 45 Choice of Friction Factors, 45 Creation and Assignment of Free-Flow Trip Tables, 46 Creation and Assignment of Congested Trip Tables, 46 48 CHAPTERS External Travel Estimation Introduction, 48 Basis for Development, 48 Estimation of Through Trips at External Stations, 49 Distribution of Through Trips Between Stations, 50 Example of Through-Trip Table Estimation, $1 fl Estimation of Exteral-Internel Trip Productions and Attractions, 53 Distribution of Internal-External and Exteral-Intemal Trips, 56 Case Study, 56 (Classification of External Stations, $7 Estimation of Through-Trip Percentages, 57 Distribution of Through Trips to External-External Trip Table, 57 (Conversion of Internal-External Trips to Person-Trip Productions and Attractions, $9 | ‘Summary, 60 | 62 CHAPTER 6 Mode-Cholce Analysis Introduction, 62 | Basis for Development, 62, l Logit Formulation, 62 Incremental Logit Formulation, 63, ) Model Coefficients, 64 | Incremental Model Application, 64 Example Application of Incremental Mode-Choice Model, 65 Problem, 67 Summary of Example Problem Results, 73 Analysis of Travel Demand Management (TDM) Strategies, 73, Case Study, 75, 16 CHAPTER 7 Automobile-Occupancy Characteristics Introduction, 76 Basis for Development, 76 Features and Limitations, 77 | ‘Variation in Auto Occupancy by Urbanized Area Population and by Trip Purpose, 77 Variation in Auto Occupancy by Time of Day, 77 Variation in Auto Occupancy by Income Level, 77 Variation in Auto Occupancy by Facility Type, 79 Data Requirements and Example Problems, 80 Usefulness of Regionally Developed Models, 80 (Case Study, 80 81 CHAPTERS Time-of-Day Characteristics Introduction, 81 Basis for Development, 82 Vehicle Travel, 82 Diurnal Distibotion, 82 Use of Time-of Day Tables, 82 ‘Transit Hourly Distributions, 84 ‘Trip Matrix Conversion Factors, 85 Creation of an Origin-Destination Trip Table, 87 Case Study, 91 93 CHAPTER 9 ‘Traffic Assignment Procedures Introduction, 93, Basis for Development, 94 ‘Traffic Assignment Model Parameters, 94 ‘Application of Volume-Delay Curves in Highway Assignment, 94 [Node Characteristics, 96 Validation of Highway Assignment and Network, 96 Distribution of Assigned Volumes Among Available Facilites, 96 ‘Traffic Shift Methodology for Corridors, 100 Case Study, 108, 104 CHAPTER 10 Capacity Analysis Introduction, 104 Basis for Development, 104 Initial Settings for Capacities for Use in Travel Forecasting Models, 105 ‘Assumptions and Extensions fr Initial Capacity, 105, Determination of Intersection Capacity, 107 Input Data Requirements, 107 ‘Worksheet Applications, 108 ‘Computational Requirements, 108 Instructions forthe Lane Volume Worksheet, 109 Signal Operations Worksheet, 114 Limitations cf the Planning Method, 117 Iustrated Example, 117 123. CHAPTER 11. Development Density/lighway Spacing Relationships Introduction, 123 Basis for Development, 123 ‘Data Required for Application, 124 Features and Limitations, 124 Limitations ofthe Methodology and Substitutability of Local Data, 124 Applying the Development Density/Highway Spacing Methodology, 125 Steps in Appliction, 126 Feedack, 131, ‘An Example Application, 132 Input Information, 132 Methodology, 133 (utput information, 135 136 CHAPTER 12 Case Study Application of Default Parameters Introduction, 136 ‘Transportation Database, 136 Socioeconomic Data, 136 [Network Description, 138 Traffic Count Data, 138 ‘Trip Generaion, 138 ‘Trip Productions, 138 ‘Trip Atractions, 139) External Travel, 140 ‘Classification of External Stations, 140 Estimation of Through-Trip Percentages, 140 Distbution of Through Trips to Extenal-External Trp Table, 141 ‘Conversion of Internal-Exteral Trips to Person-Trip Productions ‘and Attractions, 142 Balancing Productions and Attractions, 142 ‘Trip Distribution, 144 Estimation of Free-Flow Travel Times, 144 Intrazonal Times, 145 ‘Terminal Times, 145 (Choice of Friction Factors, 146 Creation of Free-Flow Trip Tables, 146 Made-Choice Analysis, 147 ‘Automabile-Occupancy Characteristics, 147 Time-of-Day Characteristics, 147 ‘Tealfic Assignment of Free-Flow Trip Table, 148, Creation and Assignment of Congested Trip Tables, 148 “Model Validation and Sereenline Comparisons, 148 Conetusions, 150, 152 BIBLIOGRAPHY 154 APPENDIX A NTPS and Home Interview Survey Data 187 APPENDIXB Asheville, North Carolina, Case Study AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ‘The research reported herein was performed under NCHRP Project 8-29 by Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. William A. Martin, Principal Associate and Jobn R. Hamburg, Vice President, were the principal investigators. The other authors ofthis report are Nancy A. MeGuckin, Senior Associate; Hugh Morris, Associate; Sawn Sabanayagam, Senior Associate; Thomas Harrington, Associate; and Matthew Lawor, Inter. Other person- nel who contributed significantly to this report were David Kurth, Principal Associate; Richard Donnelly, Principal Associate; ard Eric Bierce, Senior Associate Sincerest thanks are extended to all the agencies and ind {duals who contributed time and effort in responding to interviews and contributing local data for the parameters set forth in ths report. ‘rt, ‘and : SUMMARY TRAVEL ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES FOR URBAN PLANNING ‘This project was conducted in two phases. The first phase was to identify the critical travel estimation areas that would require updating or adding to the earlier NCHRP Report 187. The second phase was to collect the necessary dala, update the travel esti- ‘mation parameters and techniques, and prepare the revised report, During the fist phase of this project a survey was conducted of the metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state DOTs with the objective of identifying * If and how NCHRP Report 187 was used, ‘+ What issues the transpcrtation planners are facing that place added demands on the travel demand model, and ‘+ Any travel surveys that the agency had conducted in recent years. ‘The survey found that the great majority of applications of the quick response tech- niques and parameters were for trip generation, either the site-specific vehicle rates or the general houschold-based trip production models. The mode choice procedures con- tained in NCHRP Report 1£7 had never been used by almost 90 percent of the respon- dents and only 3 percent ofthe respondents ate still using the model choice technique. With the rapid growth in the capacity and deployment of microcomputers, the use of manual application techniques has been minimized. This report concentrates on travel parameters that can be applied in any of the available travel demand programs. The extensive, non-network-based, manual procedures (e.g., trip distribution and traffic assignment) contained in tke earlier report are not included in this report. The travel parameters and techniques presented in this report follow the basic four-step process: trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and traffic assignment. A chapter has been included that discusses the databases required to build a travel demand model, These include supply-side data (e.., highway and transit networks) and demand-side data (e.g., zonal socioeconomic data on population and employment). A description of the data requirements is presented along with sources for building the database. Also in this chapter isa brief discussion of the use of geographic information systems (GIS) and the opportunities for using GIS in the building of the travel demand database and in model application. The survey of MPOs and state DOT revealed that ‘more than one-half of the agencies have GIS available. For trip generation analysis, wo sets of parameters are presented. The first set rep- resents vehicle trips generated by specific site activites, The data for these rates were extracted from the Institute of Traffic Engineers’ Trip Gevievation Manual, Sth Edition The second set of rates are typical for trip production and attraction models, These rates represent average daily person trips and were arrived at by using both the data from the recent National Personal ‘Transportation Survey and several home interview surveys, taken since 1985, An interesting finding in this study is that, although the trip rates are divided by urban areas with different populations, the variation between small and large urban areas was not as great as presented in the NCHRP Report 187. The rates are more closely grouped around an average of 9.0 daily person trips per houschold, Different rates are presented forthe population ranges of $0,000 to 200,000; 200,000 to 500,000; 500,000 to 1,000,000; and greater than 1,000,000. ‘The trip distribution section presents the standard gravity model formulation. The report assumes that the user will be developing the zone-to-zone travel times from a network-based travel demand package and the default data required are the travel impedance friction factors. The friction factors are presented as both a gamma function and a lookup table. Presented in this section is a discussion of how the gravity model can be calibrated to match observed trip length distributions. Unlike the trip generation section, the default friction factors are not grouped by urban area size. The trip distri- bution within an urban area depends heavily on both the local highway (and transit net- ‘work for areas with significant transit shares) network and the geographic location of the households and employment. External travel estimation has been the least documented component of the travel demand models. A chapter has been included that presents a procedure for estimating through, internal-extemal, and external-internal trips for small urban areas, The research concluded that, although the procedure works adequately for small urban areas, iis not applicable for larger areas. Research into external travel revealed that very litte has been

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