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6: Weekly sales of bread at a local Foods Market are given in the table below.

Forecast sales for


week 7 using a three-week moving average.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Sales 402 385 420 382 410 432 385 411
Moving
402.33 395.67 404.00 408.00 409.00 409.33
Average
Answer 408.00 Forecasts for other months are also given in the table above.

7: Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local Whole Foods Market are given in the table
below. Forecast demand for week 6 using a four-week moving average.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Sales 415 389 420 382 410 432 380 410
Moving
401.50 400.25 411.00 401.00 408.00
Average
Answer 400.25 Forecasts for other months are also given in the table above.

8: What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following
past demand data and using the weights: .7, .2, .1 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Weights 0.1 0.2 0.7


Month Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April May
Demand 37 36 40 42 47 43
WMA
38.9 41 45.3 43.7
Forecast
Answer 43.7 Forecasts for other months are also given in the table above.

9: What is the forecast for April based on a weighted moving average applied to the following
past demand data and using the weights: .6, .3, .1 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Weights 0.1 0.3 0.6


Month Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April May
Demand 37 40 36 47 42 43
WMA
37.3 43 42.9 43.1
Forecast
Answer 42.9 Forecasts for other months are also given in the table above.

10: What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following
past demand data and using the weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?
10: What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following
past demand data and using the weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Weights 0.2 0.3 0.5


Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July
Demand 137 140 136 145 138 144
WMA
137.4 141.3 139.7 142.4
Forecast
Answer 141.3 Forecasts for other months are also given in the table above.

20: Compute a weighted 3-month moving average for month 7 by using the following weights: 0.5, 0.3,
and 0.2. The weight is highest for the latest month.

Weights 0.2 0.3 0.5


Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Actual
700 645 660 648 655 760 682 670 756
Demand
WMA
663.5 651 653.9 706.1 700 691.6 715.4
Forecast
Answer 706.1 Forecasts for other months are also given in the table above.

21: The demand forecast for month 7 by using a simple 3-month moving average will be ___.

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Actual
700 645 660 648 655 760 682 670 756
Demand
WMA
668.33 651.00 654.33 687.67 699.00 704.00 702.67
Forecast
Answer 687.67 Forecasts for other months are also given in the table above.

22: Find the forecast for month 9 by using exponential smoothing with a = 0.3.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Actual
700 645 660 648 655 760 682 670 756
Demand
Alpha 0.3
Forecast 700.00 700.00 684 676 668 664 693 690 684 705
Answer 684 Forecasts for other months are also given in the table above.
23: Find the value of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) at the end of month 8 by using the demand and
forecast data in the table given below.

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Actual
700 645 660 648 655 760 682 670 756
Demand
Forecast 720 675 635 587 702 718 740 753
Error -20 -30 25 61 -47 42 -58 -83
Absolute
20 30 25 61 47 42 58 83
Error
Cumulative
20 50 75 136 183 225 283 366
Error
MAD 20 25 25 34 36.6 37.5 40.429 45.75
Answer 45.75 MAD for other months are also given in the table above.

RSFE -110
Tracking
-2.4044 = RSFE/MAD
Signal
28: The demand data for an item for three years is given in the
Table below. Find the forecast for the Winter quarter of the
fourth year using the seasonal forecasting model. Total demand
in the fourth year is expected to be 2212 units.

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3


Fall 110 135 180
Winter 240 355 500
Spring 600 750 830
Summer 450 540 610

Answer 447.4

Solution:
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Fall 110 135 180
Winter 240 355 500
Spring 600 750 830
Summer 450 540 610
Total 1400 1780 2120
Average 350 445 530

Find Seasonal Index (SI)


Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Average SI
Fall 0.314 0.303 0.340 0.319
Winter 0.686 0.798 0.943 0.809
Spring 1.714 1.685 1.566 1.655
Summer 1.286 1.213 1.151 1.217

Total Demand for next year 2212 Given


Average Demand per quarter 553 `

Forecast for Next Year


Quarter Forecast
Fall 176.5
Winter 447.4
Spring 915.3
Summer 672.8
29. The Highway Department is considering using a 6-month moving average to forecast crew hours needed to repai
roads month by month for the coming year. To test whether this method is accurate, use last years data (shown in the
following table) to predict the last six months crew hours to compare with the observed values. Start with the averag
of January through June to compare with the actual value of 200 for July and so on through December.

Crew 6-Month
Absolute
Month Hours Moving Error
Error
Average
Jan. 110
Feb. 120
March 140
April 180
May 250
June 200
July 200 166.7 33.3 33.3
Aug. 220 181.7 38.3 38.3
Sept. 280 198.3 81.7 81.7
Oct. 120 221.7 -101.7 101.7
Nov. 100 211.7 -111.7 111.7
Dec. 80 186.7 -106.7 106.7
Total 473.3
MAD 78.9

31. Referring to Q 29 and Q 30, use a 3-period moving average to forecast the last six months
and compare directly to the 6-month forecast developed there. Here, the first forecast is the
average of April, May, and June to compare with the actual value of 200 for July and so on
through December.

Crew 3-Month
Absolute
Month Hours Moving Error
Error
Average
Jan. 110
Feb. 120
March 140
April 180
May 250
June 200
July 200 210.0 -10.0 10.0
Aug. 220 216.7 3.3 3.3
Sept. 280 206.7 73.3 73.3
Oct. 120 233.3 -113.3 113.3
Nov. 100 206.7 -106.7 106.7
Dec. 80 166.7 -86.7 86.7
Total 393.3
MAD 65.6

32. Referring to Q 29, Q 30 and Q 31, use a 6-period weighted moving average to forecast the last six months and
compare directly to the un-weighted forecasts for 6-month and 3-month periods. Use the weights 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, .0
and 0.3 with the 0.3 weighting the most recent datum point.

6-period
Crew
Weighted Absolute
Month Hours Error Weights
Moving Error
Average
Jan. 110 0.1
Feb. 120 0.1
March 140 0.1
April 180 0.2
May 250 0.2
June 200 0.3
July 200 183.0 17.0 17.0
Aug. 220 194.0 26.0 26.0
Sept. 280 203.0 77.0 77.0
Oct. 120 231.0 -111.0 111.0
Nov. 100 201.0 -101.0 101.0
Dec. 80 172.0 -92.0 92.0
Total 424.0
MAD 70.7
st crew hours needed to repair
last years data (shown in the
values. Start with the average
ugh December.
cast the last six months and
weights 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, .0.2,
33. The following table presents data concerning the sales of minivans and minivan tires for 10 years. It is believed
minivan replacement tires is highly correlated with the sales figures of minivans for the previous years. Based on the
better predictor of minivan tire sales - sales of minivans three years prior or four years prior?

Forecast
Minivan Sales Minivan Tire Forecast Based
Based on 3-
Year (t) in Year t (in Sales in Year t on 4-Year Prior
Year Prior
millions) (in millions) Period
Period
1 10 4
2 12 6
3 11 7
4 9 5
5 10 8
6 12 7
7 10 5
8 9 7
9 8 8
10 7 6
11 5 7.14
12 4 7.59
13 3 8.05
14 8.50

Coefficient of
3-Year Prior 4-Year Prior
Correlation
Intercept -4.000 11.682
Slope 1.000 -0.455
Coefficient of
0.891 -0.471
Correlation
es for 10 years. It is believed that the demand for
previous years. Based on these data which is a
prior?