Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
DEBT INVESTORS
Carlsberg Group
30 August 2017
2
CONTENT
Group overview
SAIL22 & Funding the Journey
Key financial highlights
Group financing &
key EURO bond terms
Appendix
3
Group
overview
4
The Carlsberg Group 2016
24 c. 108bn
markets with DKK
# 1 or 2 positions market cap1
74% 62.6bn
volumes sold in DKK
# 1 or 2 markets net revenue2
No. 1 8.6bn
in Eastern Europe DKK
free cash flow2
No. 2 21.9bn
in Western Europe DKK
net debt3
5
Three regions a more balanced portfolio
6
The Group has a strong portfolio of
core beer brands
Share of Share of beer
beer volume net revenue
Mainstream lager is among the alcohol categories
with the highest market penetration and frequency of consumption
Represents our largest volume and profit pool
7
and attractive craft & speciality brands
and alcoholic-free brews
Share of Share of beer
beer volume net revenue
Craft & speciality and alcohol-free brews are growing rapidly
in many markets
Craft & speciality driven by consumer desire for premium brands
with varied tastes and beer styles
Alcohol-free brews driven by the rising interest in healthier choices
8
SAIL22 &
Funding
the Journey
9
Our new strategy SAIL22 was launched in March
2016, guided by our ambition to be
SUCCESSFUL
by driving sustainable top- and bottom-line growth
KPIs
Market share
Gross profit after logistics %
Operating profit
PROFESSIONAL
by excelling with our customers in insights, management and service
KPIs
Customer satisfaction scores
ATTRACTIVE
by delivering value for our shareholders, employees and society
KPIs
Operating profit
ROIC
Free cash flow
10
SAIL22 defines clear priorities with a focus on core
and growth opportunities to deliver shareholder
value
Leverage our strongholds Win in growing categories Organic growth in operating profit
Excel in execution Target big cities ROIC improvement
Funding the Journey Grow in Asia Optimal capital allocation
Team-based performance
CREATE A
WINNING CULTURE Contribute to a better society
Compass (applying our codes and policies)
11
SAIL22 sets clear targets for capital allocation
1 In prioritised order
12
SAIL22 includes an ambitious sustainability strategy
with industry-leading targets: Together Towards ZERO
2030 2022
0% carbon emissions at our breweries 50% reduction in carbon emissions at our breweries
100% electricity from renewable sources at our breweries
30% reduction in beer-in-hand carbon Eliminate use of coal at our breweries
footprint 15% reduction in beer-in-hand1 carbon footprint
100% low climate impact cooling
Partner with 30 suppliers to reduce shared carbon footprint
50% reduction in water usage at our 25% reduction in water usage at our breweries
breweries Explore going below 2.0hl/hl at all high risk breweries
Partner to safeguard shared water Partner to safeguard shared water resources in high-risk areas
resources in high-risk areas
100% of our markets improve on 100% availability of alcohol free beer (AFB)
responsible drinking year on year 100% responsible drinking messaging through packaging
and brand activations
100% of our markets run partnerships to support responsible
consumption
13
Status of Funding the Journey and SAIL22
as at 30 June 2017
SAIL22
Investment in and execution of SAIL22 priorities on-going
Strengthen core business
Drive future top-line growth
Craft & speciality growth of +25%
Alcohol-free beer growth in Western Europe of +13%
Launch of Together Towards ZERO with industry-leading
ambitions
14
Funding the Journey was launched in November 2015,
targeting net benefits of DKK 1.5-2.0bn by 2018
GROWING BALANCING
TOP-& BOTTOM-LINE OUR GOLDEN TRIANGLE
Net revenue +2% (organic)
Operating profit +15% (organic)
Net profit +23% VOLUMES GROSS MARGIN
organic pro rata growth
REDUCING
LEVERAGE
Net debt/EBITDA 1.57x OPERATING PROFIT
organic growth
+15%
17
A clear target of SAIL22 is to reduce net debt and
financial leverage H1 2017 results delivered
accordingly
DKKbn
3.0x 40.0
Continued reduction
2.5x 35.0 of financial leverage
In line with SAIL22 capital
allocation priorities (target:
2.0x 30.0 < 2.0x)
NIBD reduced by DKK 3.7bn
since year-end 2016
1.5x 25.0
NIBD/EBITDA down to 1.57x
driven by:
1.0x 20.0 Earnings growth
Working capital improvement
Disposals
0.5x 15.0
0.0x 10.0
H1 2015 FY 2015 H1 2016 FY 2016 H1 2017
18
2017 outlook
Other assumptions
A translation impact on operating profit of around DKK +50m
based on the spot rate on 14 August (previously DKK +300m)
Financial expenses, excluding currency losses or gains and
fair value adjustments, of around DKK 1bn (previously DKK
1.0-1.1bn)
Effective tax rate just below 30%.
Capital expenditures of approximately DKK 4bn
19
Net revenue and operating profit
8.457
50 8.245
7.978
44.8 8
41.1
40
6
5.262
30
4.046
4
20
2
10
0 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
20
Operating and EBITDA margins
35%
25%
30%
20%
25%
15% 20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0% 0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Carlsberg Group Western Europe Carlsberg Group Western Europe
Eastern Europe Asia Eastern Europe Asia
21
Average trade working capital
and free cash flow
10.5
2.0%
10
0.0%
8.6
-2.0% 8 7.5
-4.0%
5.9 5.9
6
5.2
-6.0%
3.9
-8.0% 4
-10.0%
2
-12.0%
0.7
0.1
-14.0% 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017
2017
22
Group
financing &
proposed
transaction
key terms
23
We are committed to investment grade
24
Carlsberg Group financing
Committed to maintaining investment grade credit rating EUR 1,000m Bond maturing in Oct 2017 and EUR 750m
Bond maturing in 2019
Centralised funding and risk management at the level of
Carlsberg Breweries A/S EUR 750m Bond maturing in 2022
Diversified sources of funding and smooth maturity profile EUR 1,000m Bond maturing in 2024
Ample capital resources available at all times EUR 2,510m credit facility committed until 2021
9 30
6 20
EUR 1 bn 2,5%
EUR 750 m
2,625% EUR 750 m
3 2,625% 10
0 0
1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years > 5 years 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020->
25
Continued focus on cash generation
and deleveraging
Target net interest bearing debt (SAIL22) Gross financial debt at 31 December 2016 of
DKK 30,204m
Net interest bearing debt / operating profit before
depreciation and amortisation < 2.0x 70% of gross financial debt is long term
NIBD/EBITDA at 31 December 2016: 1.96 76% of net financial debt at fixed rates
NIBD at 31 December 2016: DKK 25,503m 61% of gross financial debt is non-current bonds
NIBD at 30 June 2017: DKK 21,852m
Non-current issued
4x bonds
29%
Non-current bank
2.71 2.74 borrowings
3x 2.55
2.30 2.39 2.35 2.34 Non-current mortgages
1.96
2x Current bank borrowings
1.57
5% 61%
1%
1x 4% Other current- and non-
current borrowings
x
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1'17
26
Funding portfolio to meet Carlsbergs strategy
45% 52%
1%
86%
Bonds Mortgages Bank borrowings Other credit facilities Bonds Mortgages Bank borrowings Other credit facilities
27
Funding strategy
28
Carlsberg Group ownership structure and proposed
transaction key terms
29
Appendix
30
Other activities bridge between Carlsberg Group
and Carlsberg Breweries Group
Other activities in Carlsberg A/S (not consolidated in Carlsberg Breweries Group) are primarily:
R&D activities
Real estate activities Carlsberg A/S holds 25% ownership in Carlsberg Byen, the city development project
on the former brewery site in Valby
Bridge between Carlsberg Group and Carlsberg Breweries Group1
DKKm Other
CAG activities CBG Comments
CAS admin. expense: DKK -100m. Profit from associate after tax:
Operating profit 8,245 56 8,301 DKK +44m, of which the main part is real estate (Carlsberg Byen)
Free cash flow 8,616 189 8,805 Decrease in other payables in CAS
Net financial debt 26,702 131 26,833 Intercompany loans from CAS to CBG
1 Abbreviations: CAG: Carlsberg Group; CBG: Carlsberg Breweries Group; CAS: CAG excl. CBG
31
Western Europe
NORWAY
Ringnes
No. 1
Market share: 55%
Breweries: 2
FINLAND
Sinebrychoff
SWEDEN No. 2
Carlsberg Sverige Market share: 31%
No. 1 Breweries: 1
Market share: 35%
Breweries: 1
BALTIC STATES
Saku
Aldaris
Svyturys-Utenos Alus
No. 1-2
UK DENMARK Market share: 26-41%
Carlsberg UK Carlsberg Danmark Breweries: 3
No. 4 No. 1
Market share: 12% Market share: 54%
Breweries: 1 Breweries: 1
SWITZERLAND
Feldschlsschen POLAND
No. 1 Carlsberg Polska
Market share: 41% No. 3
Breweries: 1 Market share: 17%
Breweries: 3
GERMANY
(Northern)
Carlsberg Deutschland
FRANCE No. 1
Kronenbourg Market share: 17%
No. 2 Breweries: 2
Market share: 28%
Breweries: 1
Organic Nordic
DKK bn 2016 2015 growth countries
Others, incl.
Export &
Beer volumes (m hl) 48.4 50.2 -4% Licence
France
Operating margin 14.2% 13.7%
Germany
UK
South East
Europe
33
Western Europe H1 2017 results highlights
H1
m.hl / DKKbn 2016 Org. Acq. Net FX 2017
34
Eastern Europe
KAZAKHSTAN
Derbes
No. 2
RUSSIA Market share: 37%
Baltika Breweries: 1
No. 1
Market share: 35%
Breweries: 8
35
Eastern Europe 2016 key figures
Others
Organic
DKK bn 2016 2015 growth
36
Eastern Europe H1 2017 results highlights
H1
m.hl / DKKbn 2016 Org. Acq. Net FX 2017
37
Asia
HONG KONG
Carlsberg Hong Kong Ltd
No. 2
Market share: 27% VIETNAM
SEAB
Hue Brewery
CHINA Habeco
No. 4
(Western)
Market share: 10%
No. 1
Breweries1: 2
Market share: 58%
Breweries: 27
LAOS
Lao Brewery Co.
No. 1
Market share: 96%
Breweries: 2
NEPAL
Gorkha Brewery
No. 1
Market share: 70%
Breweries: 1 CAMBODIA
Cambrew
No. 1
Market share: 45%
Breweries: 1
INDIA
Carlsberg India
No. 3
Market share: 17% SINGAPORE
Breweries: 7 Carlsberg Singapore
No. 2
Market share: 21%
SRI LANKA
Lion Brewery Ceylon
No. 1 MALAYSIA
Breweries: 1 Carlsberg Brewery
MYANMAR
Malaysia Berhad
Carlsberg Myanmar
No. 2
No. 4
Market share: 37%
Market share: 3%
Breweries: 1
38 Breweries: 1
1Excl. Habeco
Asia 2016 key figures
Organic Others
DKK bn 2016 2015 growth
China
Beer volumes (m hl) 36.1 37.8 -3%
Laos
39
Asia H1 2017 results highlights
H1
m.hl / DKKbn 2016 Org. Acq. Net FX 2017
40
Dividend per share and pay-out ratio
10.0
10 35%
9.0 9.0
8.0
8 28%
6.0
6 5.5 21%
4.8 4.8 5.0
2 7%
0 0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
41
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements about the Groups sales, revenues, earnings, spending,
margins, cash flow, inventory, products, actions, plans, strategies, objectives and guidance with respect to the Group's future
operating results. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or
imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain the words "believe", "anticipate", "expect", "estimate", "intend",
"plan", "project", "will be", "will continue", "will result", "could", "may", "might", or any variations of such words or other words with
similar meanings. Any such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the Group's actual results to differ
materially from the results discussed in such forward-looking statements. Prospective information is based on managements then
current expectations or forecasts. Such information is subject to the risk that such expectations or forecasts, or the assumptions
underlying such expectations or forecasts, may change. The Group assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking
statements to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting such forward-looking statements.
Some important risk factors that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from those expressed in its forward-
looking statements include, but are not limited to: economic and political uncertainty (including interest rates and exchange rates),
financial and regulatory developments, demand for the Group's products, increasing industry consolidation, competition from other
breweries, the availability and pricing of raw materials and packaging materials, cost of energy, production and distribution related
issues, information technology failures, breach or unexpected termination of contracts, price reductions resulting from market
driven price reductions, market acceptance of new products, changes in consumer preferences, launches of rival products,
stipulation of market value in the opening balance sheet of acquired entities, litigation, environmental issues and other unforeseen
factors. New risk factors can arise, and it may not be possible for management to predict all such risk factors, nor to assess the
impact of all such risk factors on the Group's business or the extent to which any individual risk factor, or combination of factors,
may cause results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Accordingly, forward-looking
statements should not be relied on as a prediction of actual results.
42