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Catalog Description:
3(3,0). PR: EGN 3613; STA 3032 or equivalent. Topics include measuring economic
worth, economic optimization under constraints. Analysis of economic risk and
uncertainty, foundations of utility functions.
EGN3613 requires the use of Excel. EIN6357 also requires the use of Excel but does not
teach it but rather refreshes the use of the tool. At UCF, Excel is taught at the 1000/2000
level or may be taken through continuing education. If one is NOT qualified with using
Excel, then one should strongly consider taking a course through continuing education in
order become proficient with the tool.
Supplementary Material:
Other articles as identified on class lecture notes.
Highly Recommended:
o Behavioral Economics by Edward Cartwright, Routledge: London & NY;
2011.
o Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques for Valuing Strategic
Investment and Decisions, 2nd Edition by Johnathan Mun, John Wiley
& Sons, 2006
o Hedging:
Britta Berghfer, Brian Lucey, Fuel hedging, operational hedging
and risk exposureEvidence from the global airline industry,
International Review of Financial Analysis 34 (2014) 124139
Erik Hofmann, (2011),"Natural hedging as a risk prophylaxis and
supplier financing instrument in automotive supply chains",
Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, Vol. 16 Iss 2
pp. 128 141.
Martin Christopher Carlos Mena Omera Khan Oznur Yurt, (2011),
"Approaches to managing global sourcing risk", Supply Chain
Management: An International Journal, Vol. 16 Iss 2 pp. 67 81
Additional Readings:
o Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden
Forces That Shape Our Decisions by Dan Ariely, Harper Perennial; 1
Exp Rev edition (April 27, 2010)
o Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games by Han T. J. Smit and
Lenos Trigeorgis, Princeton University Press, 2004
Further Recommended Materials will be identified in the lecture notes but of
particular note will be Harvard Business School Case Studies. Selective Case
Studies will be highlighted in the course so that students wishing to obtain them
may do so. I will cite many additional articles, case studies and books in my
presentations but this is NOT a reason for you to duplicate my personal library.
Please take advantage of our tremendous UCF library and access the online
electronic sources through OneSearch. For the minimalist, you are not required to
obtain these further recommend materials. For the additional articles, case
studies, or books that I cite, you will be responsible on exams for only those
portions of the material that I cite and post in my lecture notes. However, the
astute student may advantage him or herself by investigating them for their
semester essay. Additional Journal Articles by case authors may be obtained
through the to the UCF Library homepage http://library.ucf.edu/.
General Information:
This syllabus may change due to unforeseen events, change in University policies
or due to correction of error. If conflict exists with any statement contained
within this syllabus and University policy, University policy governs. The
official class syllabus will be maintained on the UCF Webcourses web site.
Information contained in this syllabus may be supplemented by or may have been
formally disseminated in classroom in prior or subsequent lectures or
presentations.
Office hours are projected and not guaranteed. Change will be announced
through Webcourses or otherwise be posted by my office door.
Appointments may be made outside of normal office hours on an as available
basis.
Selected highlights from the policy section of the graduate catalog:
o Drop/Add: The University provides you the opportunity to interact with the
instructor and the material in a course at no cost to you during the first few
days of a semester. You may use this opportunity to determine if a course is
suited to your needs or if you are prepared to take the course. If you find that
you are NOT prepared for the course, you should not enroll or drop before the
drop/add deadline. If you have systemic, ongoing business or family situation
that conflicts with or prevents you from keeping pace with the course during
this semester, taking the exams when scheduled during this semester, or
performing at the level expected of a graduate during this semester, then as
appropriate do not enroll or drop the course for this semester. You may re-
schedule for a later semester when conflicts are removed and one is prepared
to undertake the material. If you find that you are NOT prepared for the
course or a business or family situation arises that conflicts or prevents you
from keeping pace with the course AFTER the drop/add period, then you may
apply for a withdrawal or under special conditions apply for an incomplete as
discussed below.
o Withdrawal: Withdrawal for each term begins after "Late Registration and
Add/Drop" ends. Students may withdraw from a class and receive the notation
of "W" until the date noted in the "Academic Calendar" of the Schedule Web
Guide. A student may withdraw from courses using myUCF at
https://my.ucf.edu, or by visiting the Registrar's Office (Millican Hall 161),
certain college advising offices, or a Regional Campus records office.
Students may withdraw by fax at 407-823-5652. Faxed requests must be
received by 5:00 p.m. on the last day to withdraw and must include the
student's identification number, the course(s) to be dropped, and the student's
signature. Students also may send a written request to the Registrar's Office by
mail (to P.O. Box 160114, Orlando, FL 32816-0114). This letter must be
time-stamped or postmarked before the published withdrawal deadline and
must include the student's identification number, the course(s) to be dropped,
and the student's signature. Students seeking to withdraw in person must sign
the request and must provide photo identification. The official date of
withdrawal is the date the university receives the withdrawal request.
Requests received by mail are processed using the postmark as the official
date of withdrawal. A student is not automatically withdrawn from a class for
not attending, nor can an instructor withdraw a student from a class. Upon
request the instructor will provide the student with a PASSING or FAILING
assessment of the student's performance in the course prior to the last day of
withdrawal. No withdrawal is permitted after the deadline except in
extraordinary circumstances such as serious medical problems, military
deployment, or other events beyond the students control. Unsatisfactory
academic performance is not an acceptable reason for withdrawal after the
deadline. Students seeking to petition for a late withdrawal should consult the
College of Graduate Studies (MH 230). At the time of the request, the College
of Graduate Studies will ascertain from the instructor whether the student was
passing or failing the course. If the student was passing, a "WP" will be
recorded on the student's permanent record; if failing, a "WF" will be entered.
Medical and late withdrawals normally are for all courses taken in the
semester.
As a note on the University policy on withdrawals, late withdrawals have
a greater likelihood of denial.
o Incomplete: A grade of "I" (incomplete) is assigned by the instructor when a
student is unable to complete a course due to extenuating circumstances, and
when all requirements can clearly be completed in a short period of time
following the close of regular classes. In all circumstances where an "I" grade
is received, the student and faculty member must complete an agreement form
that specifies how and when the incomplete grade will be made up. This
agreement form is submitted with the instructor grade rolls at the end of the
semester, and a copy of this agreement is given to the Graduate College for
further follow-up. For those students on financial assistance such as loans, the
incomplete (I) must be made up by the agreement date. Failure to complete
course requirements by that date may, at the discretion of the instructor, result
in the assignment of an "F" grade, or a "U" grade for thesis, dissertation, or
research report hours. It is the student's responsibility to arrange with the
instructor for the changing of the "I" grade. Grades of "I" must be resolved
within one calendar year or prior to graduation, whichever comes first.
Incompletes in regular course work left unresolved will be changed to "F" if
not changed in the allowed time period, and this time period may be sooner
for those receiving financial assistance.
As a note on University policy, the CECS Associate Dean or his
representative approves or disapproves incompletes as well as the type
frame proposed. See my comments on incomplete for this course as
described further below.
LearnSmart Chapter & Excel Assignments, Exams, Essay and Course Grade:
For financial purposes, UCF requires that I administer a Required Academic
Activity to all students, which will be an exam found in Webcourses. Content
examined by the Required Academic Activity will be this syllabus. Students
should complete this Required Academic Activity by the time and date stated
in Webcourses. Later completions will be accepted but will result in later
financial aid disbursements. Scores obtained on the Required Academic
Activity will be added to scores obtained on assignments, exams and essays
discussed below.
Assignments, exams and essays are among the best known mechanisms to
insure student engagement. Understanding and mastery of course topics listed
in the syllabus below will be examined through McGraw Hill Connect
LearnSmart Chapter and Excel online assignments and exams and an essay
submitted through Webcourses. Connect, Webcourses, this syllabus or
classroom discussion may refer to term exam or quiz without
differentiation. In this course, the terms exam and quiz are synonymous
and refer to a for-grade examination unless the term practice precedes or is
implied before the term quiz or exam.
The course grade is composed of three parts totaling 1000 points in the
Webcourses Gradebook.
o One part of the overall course 1000 points is composed of LearnSmart
Chapter and Excel assignments found at the McGraw Hill Connect
class web site. Assignment scores at McGraw-Hill are raw and total
more than 300 raw points but will be converted by Dr. Proctor to 300
course points scale in the Webcourses grade book. Maximum raw
score for each assignment may be found with the assignment.
Assignments must be completed by the deadline set forth with the
assignment. Missed assignments are scored as a zero. MAKEUP
ASSIGNMENTS AND INCOMPLETES ARE NOT given for missed
LearnSmart Chapter and Excel assignments. Rather the FIVE lowest
percentage Chapter and Excel assignments scores are dropped before
converting raw scores to course points. LearnSmart Chapter and Excel
assignments test your ability to respond to questions without in-class
pressures. These assignments allow you to go at your own pace,
provide feedback, and in some cases retake the assignment over again
for a better score. This helps students who do well as home but not in
class.
o The course grade is also composed of two required, in-class Exams
that are overseen by a test manager and done under time pressure. The
exams are found at the McGraw Hill Connect class web site and are
each worth 200 points. Details on each examination are posted in the
syllabus below and on the online exam system. If you cannot take a
required exam during the regularly scheduled exam period due to some
emergency (e.g hospitalization, car accident, etc), notify me 72 hours
prior to the exam date or as soon as possible after the fact in case of an
emergency. The Optional Final Exam is the makeup exam. Exams are
a test of your ability to transfer your learning to other applications
while under a time constraint.
o The course grade is also composed of one essay worth 300 points
selected from the options listed and discussed further below and on
Webcourses. At least 72 hours prior or as soon as possible after the
fact in the case of an emergency, you may request an INCOMPLETE
for the course based on missing the essay if something unexpected
emerges (e.g. hospitalization, unexpected divorce). Essays are a test of
your ability to articulate in writing your understanding of an assigned
topic within Advanced Engineering Economics.
Exam administrative details:
o Exams may contain algorithmic questions or questions drawn from
question sets or question pools. Acceptable computed answers will
require the computational ability to carry forward calculations
correctly to within an acceptable range of error. Algorithmic questions
are generated in real time by the exam system for each individual at
the time of the exam. Question sets are sets of questions that are
randomly chosen by the exam system to present to a student. Random
selection results in each student having a probability of receiving the
same question as someone else based on the number of questions in
the question set. Questions in a question set are not perfectly
equivalent in difficulty. I rely on law of large numbers that indicates
that given enough questions each student will experience an equal
proportion of question difficulty.
o To limit the opportunity for cheating, each exam will be conducted
during the class period. All exams will be overseen in the classroom
or at a remote section testing site. Remote testing sites include Cocoa
and MetroWest. These centers require advanced notice of all test
dates. Students must register in advance to take a test. Students will
make arrangement with the Test Manager at their site and report to the
designated classroom or facility on the date and time of the exam
sufficiently prior to the exam start time to check in with the exam Test
Manager. Exams begin and end with the class scheduled hours.
Selected highlights from the UCF Distance Learning program with
respect to exams follow:
1. Arrive 15-minutes prior to your scheduled appointment time.
Examinees arriving more than 15-minutes late may not be
admitted and will forfeit any costs paid.
2. You are required to bring two forms of identification. Your IDs
cannot be expired and must be in the name in which you are
registered to test.
3. Primary ID: Must be a government-issued, non-expired photo
ID. Acceptable documents include a driver license, passport,
state-issued identification card, or military identification.
4. Secondary ID: Must have a photo OR signature, such as a
Social Security Card, student ID, employee ID, or a debit/credit
card in the examinee's name.
o Each student is responsible for providing or arranging for computing
resources and high speed internet. Reliability of student chosen
computing resources and communication link between a given student
and the exam system and exam is the sole responsibility of the student.
Students are encouraged to identify and validate reliable computing
resources and communications link well prior to all exams
o Appeal of the grading of an individual question on regularly scheduled
exams must be based on some cited McGraw Hill or Dr. Proctor error
and must be submitted within 72 hours of return of the exam.
Challenges of wording of a particular question must demonstrate that
the wording in a particular question is inconsistent with wording in
LearnSmart Chapter or Excel assignments or questions listed in the
syllabus below.
Essay administrative details:
o The essay assignment questions will be administered through and due
as indicated in Webcourses Canvas. This syllabus and Webcourses
provides further detail on expectations for essay topic content.
o External sources must be cited and citations will comply with APA
style and be listed at the end of the essay in a References Cited list.
Each submitted essay will be reviewed through Turnitin.com for
originality. Essays scored by Turnitin.com with 50% or more content
found in outside sources will be scored as a zero without review.
Essays with 25% or more content taken from outside sources will be
reviewed and may also be scored as a zero at Dr. Proctors discretion.
o While groups are encouraged to study the topics together prior to the
exam, the exam and essay responses must be the original work of the
student or students being examined.
o The essay assignment listed below and administered through the class
Webcourses website will be the responsibility of each individual or
self-selected team of two. Only one member will upload the essay
through Webcourses. The other member will upload an
acknowledgement that they are a team member. Any essay submitted
with three names on it, the last individual listed in the team will
receive a grade of zero. Each written response provides a writing
sample whose style can be used to validate the author as the author.
o Value of content in the essay will be scored against a rubric provided
below. If a student feels the essay was not fairly graded and requests
within 48 hours that I re-grade an essay, the re-grade request will be
honored only if it is understood and accepted by the student that the
new grade will stand, whether higher, lower, or the same as the
original grade.
Initial Course Scores:
o After submission of all required assignments, initial course scores are
based on the sum of scores from the required academic activity, scores
converted from LearnSmart Chapter and Excel assignment raw scores,
scores from regularly scheduled online exams, and score from the
essay assignment. I reserve the right to curve initial course scores
based on class performance. If curved, the curve will be based on
class performance relative to the overall current or prior student initial
course scores. Emphasis will be put on how top students perform as
well as the location of the class median, mode, and lastly average. If a
curve is given, then the curve will be a flat score increment and may
move the class median to between approximately 80 to 85% of the
1000 point course score. Some students may exceed 1000 points.
Therefore if a curve decides a students course outcome, then the
students performance will ultimately be relative to the performance of
fellow UCF students in the class and/or past classes.
Optional Final Exam:
o I believe in second chances where appropriate. As such I offer all
students an online optional final exam (Optional FE) through McGraw
Hill Connect, the results of which may be used to replace the lowest
results of one of the two regularly scheduled exams or makeup one of
the exams. Specifically an individuals score on the Optional FE may
replace the lowest score on the previous regularly scheduled exams if
that score is lower than the score obtained on the Optional FE. The
Optional FE is comprehensive in that it tests economic calculation
across the course but due to the limited time, the Optional FE does not
contain the depth to be a substitute for all prior exams. Further, since
the Optional FE draws from the same Connect questions previously
examined, one should perform better on the Optional FE than one did
on the original exams. The Optional FE will not be curved. Appeal of
the grading of an individual question on the Optional FE must be on
the based on some cited McGraw Hill or Dr. Proctor error and must be
submitted within 24 hours of return of the exam.
Final Grades:
o Course points earned by a given student are converted from a score to
letter grade using the Score to Letter Grade Conversion Table (below)
to determine the students letter grade. There are no extra credit
assignments. Due to curves, points earned above assigned exam and
essay scores or substitute tests, most past end-of-semester class
medians are around 88% with between 55% and 65% of the student
obtaining a B+ or better. This is of course depends on the class and
the individual students and is therefore not a guarantee of either
individual student or class performance.
Further details on INCOMPLTE:
o If a student requests and I agree to assign an incomplete at the end of
the semester an incomplete will be posted to your transcript. A request
for an incomplete will be denied if a student attempts all required
exams and essays. I do NOT give an Incomplete after-the-fact as a
substitute for a failure or poor performance. If given an incomplete,
missed assignments must be completed by an agreed upon date.
All assignments submitted for grade will be the sole creation of the author.
Cheating, plagiarism, copying or representation of the work of others as your
own will result in actions in accordance with University policy and/or the
UCF Golden Rule (http://goldenrule.sdes.ucf.edu/). The possibility exists that
some students may attempt and/or find ways to cheat on exams rather than
individually understand and properly apply the techniques necessary to find
the correct solutions to given questions expected of a Masters student. In the
long run cheating hurts the individual cheater in that the material is not
mastered. Beyond failure to master the material, the cheater and anyone
helping a cheater may be further adversely impacted as a consequence of
cheating. For those who cheat or help cheaters, often after the fact, not only
are cheaters reported but also those who help them cheat. Further,
academically outstanding students who assist cheaters may expect to be
forever hostage to the cheater that he or she assisted as revelation of cheating
or assisting in cheating can severely damage ones career or career
opportunities that are available to academically outstanding students.
Behavioral Economics Essay: Other than Anne Mulcahy, CEO of Xerox, compare
and contrast cause and effect on Investment Outcomes in two competing ECS
Corporations of Behavioral Strategy in the decision making process in terms of
cognitive biases and counter-balancing practices: (300 points total)
The intent of this assignment is to have some behavioral economics fun while learning
about the impacts of behavioral strategy - cognitive bias and related counter-balancing
practices on corporate economic decision making processes. The assignment approach
is study of contrasting ECS corporate cases: success and less successful/failure. In
accordance with the syllabus, each individual student or self-selected pair of students will
in Microsoft Word 2013 or earlier formats write and upload an essay through the
Webcourses Canvas website assignment link. Only ONE submission for a pair of
students. Write your essay separated into five sections with each section marked with a
label from text highlighted in bold below.
The Case histories for the above topics should contain past actual data. This assignment
is NOT about arguing what might have been if different decision practices where in
place. Rather, the essay should be descriptive in nature. As an example, for behavioral
economics the objective is presenting what, if any, counter balancing practices and
behavioral strategies were in place to address cognitive biases. Further, an effort will be
made to associate strategic, economic, and positioning outcomes with the presence or
absence, success or failure of the practice to achieve goals.
You may work with others in discussion or in research teams to address the essays;
however, the essays that you turn in must be YOUR original creation as measured by
Turnitin.com originality score. Those scores are categorized by Turnitin.com as Green
(less than 25% outside sources), Yellow (25% to less than 50% outside sources), and Red
(50% or above outside sources). Essays receiving a Red categorization will receive a
score of zero. Essays receiving a Yellow categorization and lacking sufficient originality
in the body of the essay by my subjective judgment will receive a score of zero.
The submitted document to include heading, body, and in-body citations will contain no
more than two thousand five hundred words as counted by Microsoft Word, word-count
tool. You may enhance your information transfer by embedding captioned pictures,
figures, tables (e.g. a systematic arrangement of data usually in rows and columns for
ready reference), short quotes from noted sources, and your references cited list either
embedded so that it is not counted by Word or as images. Images are NOT counted as
words by the word-count tool. If you do choose to imbed the reference list, then place
web links with the in-body citation. Word count overage or violations of the embedding
instructions will result in appropriate point deductions.
OR
The intent of this assignment is to have some risk mitigation fun while learning about the
impact of FLCS, Hedging or Real Options. The assignment approach is study of
contrasting ECS corporate cases: success and failure. In accordance with the syllabus,
each individual student or self-selected pair of students will in Microsoft Word 2013 or
earlier formats write and upload an essay through the Webcourses Canvas website
assignment link. Only ONE submission for a pair of students. Write your essay
separated into five sections marked with each section labeled with the text highlighted in
bold. Cite general literature associated with the risk mitigation/assumption technique you
have selected.
Part c): FLCS, Hedge or Real Option (select one) Case Competitiveness, Integration
and Alignment Context:
(1) For the time period previously identified, students will contextually and
visually frame the competition between the chosen cases in light of the Porter
Competitiveness Landscape model; Fuchs, et al Strategic Integration Model;
and Malone et al Sixteen Business models by creating case specific figures for
each model (e.g. three figures contextually completed, not generically
presented). From this framework, students will indicate the contribution to
competitive advantage of the FLCS, hedge, or real option to the first
corporation if any in light of alternative explanations for performance
outcomes. As I read this section, I will reflect on the questions, are the cases
appropriately framed and reflect competitive advantage for the first
corporation case? (30 pts)
(2) Same as (1) but for the second corporation case? The model frameworks may
be shared as appropriate. (30 pts)
Part d): Outcomes and Confounding Factors:
(1) For the time frame previously identified, using abstracted 10-K or other
validated financial, market share, or competitive positioning data, students
will support the previous assessment of failure or success outcomes due to
FLCS, Hedge, or Real Option strategy as appropriate for the first case.
Supporting evidence will include specifics monetary value of the FLCS,
Hedge, or Real Option as appropriate. Supporting evidence should also
indicate the contribution to change in earnings per share over time using NPV
and/or other economic indicators, changes in Financial Health, Cost of
Capital, FLCS, and/or corporate Beta in relation to past performance and peer
performance. Additionally, students will identify and support inferences
concerning the validity of risk mitigation claims and/or FLCS theory
applicable to the corporations being examined. Comment on confounding
factors beyond risk mitigation such as competitive power, integration and
alignment concerns, financial resources, access to intellectual property,
behavioral economics, etc. that confound or otherwise undermine the
strength of the associations between outcomes and risk mitigation strategy. If
possible discuss legacies from the history or, if not possible present, parallel
cases that benefited from or were otherwise impacted in terms of their
corporate competitive and economic situation. As I read the essay, I will
reflect on the questions, are outcomes not just specific to the FLCS, Hedge, or
Option but also include such things as strategic (e.g. bankruptcy
avoidance/failure/successful product launch/IPO; first-to-market successful
product launch, market share gain/losses), economic (e.g. realized shareholder
value gains/losses, financial ratio changes from five categories of financial
health to include stock price, eps, dividends, etcetera), and competitive
position (e.g. maintenance, improvement or loss in industry position) changes
over the period considered in the essay? Are essay claims or conclusions of
success or failure supported by quantified outcome differences between the
cases? Are essay claims or conclusions about topic theory supported? Do the
case inferences support the applicability of a theory? What risks might
overwhelm the risk mitigation approach? (30 pts)
(2) Same as (1) but for the second corporation case. (30 pts)
Part e): References Cited: List only references that you cite in your essay. Cite and list
using APA style at least two references other than the book and Dr. Proctors lecture
notes. Strength, Relevance, Uniqueness, Quality and Quantity of reference is important
for span and depth of coverage. Case uniqueness is valued more than a repeat of a case
everyone else is doing or has done before. Literature may contain named expert or
analysis assessments, news articles from reputable news agencies, corporate 10Ks, annual
reports, press releases, or other such documents. Do NOT list sources in the reference list
that are not cited in the body of the essay. If using internet sites or references, then
provide the complete internet site link. If I am unable to bring the link up, then the site or
reference will be discarded. (60 pts)
Additional notes:
Grading and Administrative Notes:
The Case histories for the above topics should contain past actual data. This assignment
is NOT about arguing what might have been if different decision practices where in
place. Rather, the essay should be descriptive in nature. As an example, for risk
mitigation the objective is presenting what, if any, Financing, Leverage & Capital
Structure; Hedging, or Real Options initiatives were or were not taken to mitigate risk.
Further, an effort will be made to associate strategic, economic, and positioning outcomes
with the presence or absence, success or failure of the practice to achieve goals.
You may work with others in discussion or in research teams to address the essays;
however, the essays that you turn in must be YOUR original creation as measured by
Turnitin.com originality score. Those scores are categorized by Turnitin.com as Green
(less than 25% outside sources), Yellow (25% to less than 50% outside sources), and Red
(50% or above outside sources). Essays receiving a Red categorization will receive a
score of zero. Essays receiving a Yellow categorization and lacking sufficient originality
in the body of the essay by my subjective judgment will receive a score of zero.
The submitted document to include heading, body, and in-body citations will contain no
more than two thousand five hundred words as counted by Microsoft Word, word-count
tool. You may enhance your information transfer by embedding captioned pictures,
figures, tables (e.g. a systematic arrangement of data usually in rows and columns for
ready reference), short quotes from noted sources, and your references cited list either
embedded so that it is not counted by Word or as images. Images are NOT counted as
words by the word-count tool. If you do choose to imbed the reference list, then place
web links with the in-body citation. Word count overage or violations of the embedding
instructions will result in appropriate point deductions.