Gonzaga, Mark Daniel T.

7/15/15
BSCE - 5 MW 1:30 3:00 PM

Assignment No. 4

National Statistics Office Forecasting

1. How does NSO forecast population?
NSO forecasts population by extrapolating trends: by determining the size of
population that is extrapolated from the past.
Linear trend extrapolation: can be presented graphically or by linear
regression
Non linear trend extrapolation: same goal as the linear trend, except
that it had the nonlinear type of presentation
Moving average: It is a sum of a number of steps which progress towards
the year for which a forecast is required.

2. What are the formulas used in forecasting?

Forecasting based on the number of births and deaths
B(t) = B(o)(1 + g s)t
Forecasting using births, deaths, emigration, and immigration;
The cohort-survival method
B(t) = B(o) (1 + g s + i e)t

3. Years when census are conducted

- Censuses are conducted every 5 years.