(Lampiran 1)What War Between North Korea and the U.S.

Might Look
Like
With the window closing fast for the U.S. to stop Kim Jong Un from obtaining a nuclear-tipped
intercontinental ballistic missile, North Korea watchers are starting to analyze President Donald
Trumps military options. He warned this month that North Korea would be met with fire and
fury if it continues to make threats. After the United Nations agreed to its most stringent
sanctions yet on Kims regime, North Korea repeated its stance that its nuclear weapons program
is necessary to deter a U.S. invasion. Kims military further escalated tensions by test-firing a
ballistic missile that flew over Japan. For Trump and the U.S., there are no easy choices.

1. Cant the U.S. try a surgical strike?

It probably wouldnt work well enough. North Koreas missiles and nuclear facilities are
dispersed and hidden throughout the countrys mountainous terrain. Failing to hit them all would
leave some 10 million people in Seoul, 38 million people in the Tokyo vicinity and tens of
thousands of U.S. military personnel in northeast Asia vulnerable to missile attacks -- with either
conventional or nuclear warheads. Even if the U.S. managed to wipe out everything, Seoul
would still be vulnerable to attacks from North Koreas artillery.

2. Why might Kim go nuclear?

Even a limited strike by the U.S. would run the risk of being understood by the North
Koreans to be the beginning of a much larger strike, and they might choose to use their nuclear
weapons, said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the
Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Somehow, the U.S. would need to signal to both
North Korea and China -- Pyongyangs main ally and trading partner -- that a surgical military
strike is limited, and that they should avoid nuclear retaliation.

3. Is regime change an option?

New leadership wouldnt necessarily lead to a new way of thinking among North Koreas
leadership. Kims prolonged exposure to Western values while at school in Switzerland led some
to speculate that he might opt to open his country to the world -- until he took power and proved
them wrong. Moreover, if Kim somehow were targeted for removal, the ruling clique
surrounding him would have to go as well -- making for a very long kill list. China, fearing both
a refugee crisis and U.S. troops on its border, would likely seek to prop up the existing regime.

4. Does that mean all-out war is the best U.S. option?

A full-scale invasion would be necessary to quickly take out North Koreas artillery as well as its
missile and nuclear programs. Yet any sign of an imminent strike -- such as a buildup of U.S.
firepower, mobilization of South Korean and Japanese militaries and the evacuation of American
citizens in the region -- could prompt North Korea to strike preemptively. China and Russia may
also be sucked in. Realistically, war has to be avoided, said John Delury, an assistant professor
of international studies at Yonsei University in South Korea. When you run any cost-benefit
analysis, its insanity.

5. How might North Korea retaliate?

The most immediate reaction would likely be massive artillery fire on Seoul and its
surroundings. North Korean artillery installations along the border can be activated faster than air
or naval assets and larger ballistic missiles that can target South Korean, Japanese or American
bases in the region with nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Those countries have
ballistic-missile-defense systems in place but cant guarantee they will shoot down everything.
Japan has begun offering advice to its citizens on what to do in the event a missile lands near
them -- essentially try to get under ground -- and U.S. firms are marketing missile shelters. While
its unclear if North Korea can successfully target U.S. cities like Denver and Chicago with a
nuclear ICBM, its similarly unknown if U.S. defense systems can strike it down -- adding to
American anxieties.

6. What would be the economic toll if war broke out?

South Korea accounts for about 1.9 percent of the worlds economy and is home to companies
including Samsung Electronics Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. A severe drop in business activity
due to war on the peninsula would cause widespread pain in the region and globally -- and thats
without deployment of North Koreas nuclear weapons against its neighbor. Global financial
markets would also suffer a tremendous shock in the short term, with flight to safe haven assets
such as gold, the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc. The humanitarian crisis and economic
reconstruction of the Korean peninsula after such a nuclear conflict would require large-scale
international co-operation led by China, the U.S. and the European Union and it would likely
take over a decade to rebuild the economy, according to Rajiv Biswas, chief Asia-Pacific
economist for IHS Markit.

7. What options remain on the table?

Many analysts say its time to start talks to prevent the situation from worsening. Stopping North
Korea from obtaining a thermonuclear weapon, or more advanced solid-fuel missiles, is a goal
worth pursuing, according to Lewis. However unpalatable it may seem, that means offering
rewards to entice North Korea back to the negotiating table. Lewis suggested one reward could
be to scale back U.S.-led military drills around North Korea. The question of what can be offered
to the North Koreans is a conversation that should be happening both with the public, with
Congress and with the North Koreans, instead of having this imaginary conversation about war
scenarios, said Delury. The realistic option is a diplomatic one that slows this thing down. And
thats going to require a lot of talks.
(Lampiran 2) These Are the Most Vulnerable Foreign Companies in
Korea
Annual military drills between the U.S. and South Korea this week could reignite tensions after
Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump traded barbs. For foreign firms that count on South
Korea for significant revenue, any escalation that curbs commerce could leave them vulnerable.

As the world braces for another round of accusations, here are three charts that highlight some of
the companies with the most business at stake in South Korea, according to their financial
statements.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who last week said North Korea was approaching his
nations red line, on Monday warned Kim not to use the military exercises as an excuse for
further provocations. China reiterated its call for the U.S. to halt the drills, while Pyongyang on
Sunday called them reckless behavior that would lead to the brink of an uncontrollable
nuclear war, according to news agency Yonhap.

A serious flare-up between North and South Korea would cause a huge disruption to commerce.
It would create ripple effects for corporations and the global economy because of South Koreas
importance in the supply chain on everything from smartphones and cars to flat-screen
televisions. Companies with manufacturing plants and employees in the country, within range of
Kims missiles, would bear the brunt of a conflict.

Read about how war in Korea would impact the world economy here.

Not surprisingly, technology features prominently in the list of foreign companies that get more
than $1 billion from South Korea. San Diego-based Qualcomm Inc., the biggest maker of chips
used in mobile phones, and Silicon Valley semiconductor maker Applied Materials Inc. both get
about 17 percent of their global sales from the Asian nation. Europes largest semiconductor-
equipment maker, ASML Holding NV, derived about a quarter of its worldwide revenue from
the country.

South Korea is a big exporter of intermediate goods, so its a huge part of the global electronics
supply chain, said John Davies, London-based global commodities strategist at BMI Research.
If operations in the country were suspended or set back for a long time due to destruction of
facilities, that would disrupt the supply chain of companies around the world.

Representatives for Qualcomm, Applied Materials and ASML declined to comment.

Many other companies are also vulnerable, either through direct investment in the worlds 11th
largest economy or as part of the international supply chain. Some, such as U.S. defense
contractors, may have substantial sales in the country, but dont show up on the list because they
dont break out revenue from South Korea.

A conflict would also affect companies that rely on consumers in South Korea. BMW
and Mercedez-Benz vehicles were the top sellers among the 225,000 imported cars sold.
Starbucks Corp., which doesnt break out sales for Korea, was forecast to break 1 trillion won
($876 million) in sales last year, according to the Korea Herald. Korea is only the fifth country
with more than 1,000 Starbucks outlets.

Among those that disclose South Korean revenue, Fairhaven, Massachusetts-based Acushnet
Holdings Corp. benefits from the popularity of golf. The maker of Titleist products has seen
growth in South Korea from across the board," Chief Operating Officer David Maher said in an
August earnings call with analysts, in which he acknowledged the geopolitical tensions.

"Its certainly something that the world is paying very close attention to," he said in the call.
"Historically, Korea has been resilient over time."

Ministop Co. shows the highest proportion in the consumer group because the Japanese
convenience store chain, which is owned by Aeon Co., has about 2,400 stores in Korea -- more
than it has in its home market. Apparel producer Guess? Inc. and Samsonite International SA,
whose shares trade in Hong Kong and which added Tumi bags to its portfolio in 2016, have seen
revenue contributions from the Asian nation shrinking over the past two years.

We are not doing anything special under the current North Korea tension, said Kimikazu
Sugawara, spokesman of Ministop. The company has always been prepared to try the best to
continue its service even under tough times.

Acushnet declined to comment further when contacted over the weekend. Guess did not respond
to a request for a comment.

Some of the biggest multinationals dont make the list because Korea contributes a smaller
portion of their huge global business. While fashion giant Hennes & Mauritz ABs gross revenue
from South Korea exceeds that of Guess, its still less than 1 percent of the Swedish companys
overall sales.

The nation of 51 million is also headquarters to some of the worlds best-known brands, many of
which get a majority of revenue from overseas. Samsung Electronics Co., by far South Koreas
largest company, may get only 10 percent of its $174 billion in sales from its domestic market,
but many of its advanced factories are within range of Kims artillery. LG Electronics Inc.,
another choice for home entertainment and appliance buyers, derived a quarter of its revenue
from South Korea.

Essentially all companies doing business in South Korea are bearing with the uncertainty, said
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Justin Jimenez. It does cast a shadow and could filter through to
investment decisions, hiring decisions.

With assistance by Ellen Proper, Ian King, Grace Huang, and Stephanie Hoi-Nga Wong
(Lampiran 3) FCA wins in Supreme Court fight over identification
of JPMorgan executive

The UKs financial watchdog has won a landmark judgment following a protracted legal battle brought
by the manager of the so-called London Whale at the centre of huge losses at JPMorgan Chase five
years ago. The decision in favour of the Financial Conduct Authority by the Supreme Court on
Wednesday came after the FCA appealed earlier rulings that it improperly identified Achilles Macris in its
public notice accompanying a 138m fine levied on JPMorgan in 2013 for the $6bn black hole.

Mr Macris, who at the time was chief investment officer of the synthetic credit portfolio team at
JPMorgan, managed Bruno Iksil, dubbed the Whale for his outsize derivatives position. In the FCAs
notice against JPMorgan, Mr Macris was identified as CIO London management. The Supreme Court
on Wednesday said this was not enough to identify him and therefore engage his so-called third party
rights. FCA notices against companies are meant to keep confidential the identities of individuals so as
not to prejudice any action against them personally.

If the watchdog does identify them in any way, it is meant to give them a chance to put across their side
of the story and give them access to evidence it relies on. These are third-party rights. But even though
individuals are described using monikers such as Trader A or Manager B, the media can often identify
them through piecing together parallel investigation reports from other countries or information already
in the public domain. Wednesdays decision the final judgment on the matter means that the FCA
can avoid overhauling its approach to how it conducts investigations and presents its findings.

It previously warned that a ruling against it would have the effect of drawing out already lengthy
investigations which on average can take 62 months in contested cases. It was a test case for a handful
of other similar actions brought by traders caught up in the benchmark-rigging probes of Libor and
foreign exchange. In addition to the case against JPMorgan, Athens-based Mr Macris was banned and
fined last year for failing to inform the FCA about concerns over the credit derivatives division he
headed. The regulator said there was no deliberate dishonesty on the part of Mr Macris. The FCAs case
against Mr Iksil, however, collapsed when an internal FCA panel found that the enforcement team had
not sufficiently made out its case against him.

(Lampiran 4) Bangkrut, 7-Eleven Dinilai Terlalu Agresif

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia -- Menteri Perindustrian Airlangga Hartarto menilai, penyebab tutupnya seluruh
gerai 7-Eleven adalah masalah tata kelola manajemen internal perusahaan dan bukan karena iklim
usaha ritel.

"Informasi yang kami dapat, persoalan (bangkrutnya) itu bukan persoalan pasar. Lebih kepada
pengelolaan atau pemilik 7-eleven yang terdiri dari berbagai pemegang saham. Itu masalah internal
saja," ujar Airlangga di sela acara halalbihalal di kawasan Senayan, Senin (26/6).
Airlangga menjelaskan, 7-Eleven merupakan perusahaan ritel swasta yang memiliki beberapa pemegang
saham. Perusahaan swasta memang lebih berdinamika lantaran perbedaan tata kelola dari tiap-tiap
pemegang saham, baik dari sisi rencana bisnis, rencana manajemen, hingga orientasi pasar.

Dari sisi rencana bisnis, Airlangga menilai, bisnis 7-Eleven terbilang agresif di awal masuk pasar
Indonesia. Hal ini terlihat dari langsung menjamurnya gerai 7-Eleven. Sayangnya, ekspansi bisnis yang
besar tak serta merta membuat pangsa pasar (market share) ikut terdongkrak. Di sisi lain, manajemen
yang kurang kuat membuat rencana bisnis bisa saja tak tercapai.

Belum lagi, pengaruh pengelolaan para pemegang saham.

"Pemegang saham bermacam ragam dan mempunyai jadwal waktu yang berbeda untuk mengelola
investasi. Jadi menurut saya ini murni kasus swasta saja," ucapnya.

Airlangga juga menyebut iklim usaha dan pasar di Tanah Air masih mendukung bisnis ritel, kendati
mengalami penurunan.

"Pasar memang ada penurunan tetapi mungkin proyeksinya terlalu progresif pada waktu itu. Karena
keagresifan itu, karena kan banyak yang masih terus ekspansif dengan pola franchise dan yang lain,"
kata mantan politisi Golkar itu.

Airlangga sendiri menilai aturan main pemerintah tak pernah membatasi ruang gerak industri ritel
sehingga tak memberatkan pertumbuhan bagi ritel. "Peraturan pemerintah untuk pasar mini market
masih terbuka," katanya.

Tak Mempengaruhi Bisnis Ritel

Airlangga memperkirakan, langkah penutupan seluruh gerai 7-Eleven takkan memberi dampak buruk
pada industri ritel Indonesia. Pasalnya, hanya 7-Eleven yang mengalami kebangkrutan.

Hanya saja, kejadian ini, sambung Airlangga membuat pemerintah akan turut menimbang aturan main
yang saat ini diberlakukan. Sebab aturan main perlu disesuaikan dengan perkembangan pasar.

Seperti diketahui, 7-Eleven yang berada di bawah PT Modern Internasional Tbk terpaksa menutup
seluruh gerainya pada akhir bulan ini.

Direktur Modern Internasional Chandra Wijaya mengatakan, penutupan 7-Eleven lantaran adanya
keterbatasan sumber daya yang dimiliki perseroan untuk menunjang kegiatan operasional gerai itu. Hal
ini pun terjadi setelah pembatalan akuisisi oleh Chaeroen Phokphand terhadap seluruh usaha waralaba
tersebut di Indonesia.

Alhasil, satu per satu gerai 7-Eleven terpaksa gulung tikar sejak tahun lalu. Sejak tahun lalu, tercatat,
sebanyak 25 gerai sudah tutup. Sedangkan sampai Maret 2017 lalu, jumlah gerai yang ditutup
bertambah 30 gerai.