Population Composition and Distribution

Overview of World Population Growth and Future Projections in LDCs and DCs

Discuss the reasons for changes and variations in population composition and distribution.
Assess the economic, demographic, social and political implications of changes and variations in
population structure and distribution.
Compare the strategies used in LDCs and DCs in coping with population change.

Population Distribution
Population Composition
An examination of the structure and social make up is known as the study of population structure or
composition. Structure consists of three aspects, demographic, cultural and socio-economic facets.
Population Projections and its Problems

Population Projections
It is the calculation of the number of people expected to be alive at some future point in time based on
current fertility and mortality rates. This calculation can be based on local, regional levels, national levels
or global levels. The length of prediction dates can vary, but normally ranging from 5-10 years, 20-50
years or 50-100 years. Short term forecasts are known as population estimates, and long term forecasts
are known as population projections.

How Population Projections are Done

Projections and estimates are based on assumptions and principles which are normally most likely to
happen. However, this often results in poor estimates if the time range is large, since variables are
unlikely to be ceteris paribus.

Assumption: BRs and DRs remain constant over time. This assumes the mostly likely course of events, or
the medium projection.

Assumption: Migration data is left out of population projections because of unavailability, inaccuracy of
data and difficulty of defining what constitutes migration. Migration trends are also difficult to predict. If
included, migration data will be left as an appendix.

Assumption: Due to the high likelihood of any single prediction being inaccurate due to data problems and
unpredictable variables, there will normally be three conditional futures calculated based on 3 constant
BRs and DRs. This gives low, medium and high population projection figures indicating the smallest
possible increase, most likely course of events, and the greatest possible increase in population size
respectively. Each is based on different, likely assumptions of current and future variables.

Reasons for Population Projections

On a global scale, projections allow people to assess balance between resources and population growth
in order to achieve sustainable development practices in the long run. Important considerations for the
future include the variations in population growth between regions (Asia, Europe, and America) and how
this will affect future economies and policies, and the delicate balance between resource use and
population growth.
On a more localized scale, projections allow governments to plan and provide adequate socio-economic
provisions for their countries at each age structure, such as hospices and homes for an ageing
population, or schools and childcare for a young population.

Governments and Population Projections

Economic Reasons:
Planning fiscal policies knowing the proportion of taxable and dependent population allows the
government to decide how much to tax and how much to spend.

Calculate future size of working population helps in predicting future growth rates, the dependency of
the population.

Altering immigration policies a shrinking working population may be a reason for relaxing immigration
policies so as to boost the countrys economy and flagging workforce.

Social Reasons:
Predicting future dependency ratios and catering to needs of the population composition creating
suitable policies to deal with an increasingly dependent population, such as in Singapore and Japan due
to low fertility rates and aging populations. For example, focusing on developing elderly facilities such as
hospices, old age homes and better healthcare.

Correcting gender imbalances especially in Asian countries with a traditional preference for males:
China, India.

Distribution of Resources:
Estimating future demand for food, water and energy an increasing population will put additional strain
on the countrys infrastructure and resources, such as healthcare, education etc. May be used to decide
whether or not to implement anti-natal policies.

Measuring Environmental Impacts:

An increasing population size will result in more resources such as oil and fuel. Especially in DCs, this will
mean more emissions and environmental impacts.
For LDCs, increasing populations mean more waste produced, and for countries with poor waste
management systems, this will greatly impact their environment.

Others Interested in Projections

International Agencies such as the UN, needed to assess the balance between resources and
population growth and lend adequate support to various countries, normally LDCs, to assist their
demographic policies.

Problems with Population Projections

The assumptions made in projections and the complexity of factors often make projections rather
inaccurate, as too often the assumptions distort when they are meant to simplify, and many unexpected
incidents do occur.

1) Social Change the changing role of women and its effects on fertility and BRs, different levels and
effectiveness of natal policies in different regions, rapid rise of fatal diseases, epidemics
2) Economic Change unexpected recessions or booms which can affect fertility rates. Prolonged
poverty, hunger and malnutrition in LDCs as well
 3) Political Change wars, civil strife, political unrest will affect BRs and DRs to some extent
4) Demographic Change migration patterns, greater BRs of migrants, large changes in migration
patterns due to events such as strife or natural disasters

Overcoming Inaccuracies of Projections

Some problems can be reduced if projection rates are continuously monitored and updated based on
shorter time intervals or using differing BRs and DRs over time. Regardless, despite the fact that
projections tend to be more inaccurate the longer the time period, long term projections are still needed
for long term planning and analysis, and after all it is better to be approximately right than precisely
wrong.
Greater openness and cooperation between governments and planning agencies can be useful (e.g.
more transparency regarding data) so that projection rates are able to be more accurate.

Interpretation of Population Pyramids

Discuss the issues of population dependency.

Discuss how population structure is affected by changes in family structure, economic change and
gender imbalance.
Critically evaluate the impact of changing population structures on issues related to the provision
of leisure, employment and health and welfare services.
Discuss the value of limitations of population pyramids in predicting population change.

Population Pyramids
Population pyramids show the demographic aspects of population composition. The age-sex composition
of a countrys population tells us much about its history, socio-economic status etc., allowing us to infer
much about its socio-economic level.

Age-sex pyramids show two things: the percentage of males and females in a region on a horizontal
scale, and the age groups of the population in the same region, normally marked at 5 year intervals on a
vertical scale.

A pyramid is a snapshot in time of the countrys population demographic structure, normally one year. By
analysing a pyramid, we can infer and deduce about the regions past and present development. We look
at three things: the overall form and structure of the pyramid, looking at individual bars, or comparing
between bars (either by age or by gender).

Different Types of Pyramids

There are generally 4 main types of population pyramids corresponding to the 4 stages of the
Demographic Transition Model, but overall there are numerous variations of pyramids which do not
conform to these 4 types.

Stationary Pyramid
Corresponds to the first stage of the DTM. The population as a whole is not really growing due to both
equally high BRs and DRs, approximating zero population growth. Examples include 17 th-18th century
Europe. There are virtually no countries overall with this pyramid today, except specific, small regions
within some of the poorest LDCs.

This pyramid has a wide base, meaning that BRs are high. Depsite high DRs due to high IMR,
compensation theory suggests that overall there are more babies being born. Due to the high IMR, the
second bar is normally very short compared to the first bar few graduate to the next age group
because most die within the first 5 years of their life.

The overall shape is irregular, due to the presence of highly infectious and fatal diseases that the whole
population is susceptible to. For example, in 17th century England, many diseases such as scarlet fever,
typhus, measles, smallpox and cholera caused to life expectancy to be only about 33 years. Since
diseases affect every strata of the population, dents can be seen across age groups in the pyramid. The
overall height is also very short due to low life expectancy. The pyramid is concave in shape, tapering
rapidly as people die.

Progressive/Expansive Pyramid
Corresponds to the second stage of the DTM. The population is growing rapidly as BRs greatly exceed
DRs, often due to a speedy reduction in DRs which is likely due to better affordability, accessibility and
availability of healthcare.

The pyramid has a wide base, like the stationary pyramid. However, it also has a wider second bar in
comparison, as the IMR is drastically reduced.

The pyramid is regularly tapering instead of rapidly or irregularly shaped, as the population in general can
live longer and survive better as compared to the dents and bulges of the stationary pyramid. This
regularity represents a declining DR. However, it shows that population is still susceptible to mortality as a
whole, because the sides are not steep. The pyramid is also taller due to higher life expectancies.

Most LDCs have already received some form of modern medicine, so most of them would already be in
Stage 2 (Mozambique, Zambia) or Stage 3 of the DTM.

Intermediate Pyramid
This pyramid lies between progressive and regressive pyramids. The wide base is shrinking due to
decreasing BRs, and the pyramid becomes steeper and less tapering due to decreasing DRs. More
people are surviving across the entire population.

This pyramid fits the third stage of the DTM, where many countries such as Singapore and China are in.

Regressive/Contractive Pyramid
The regressive pyramid fits with the fourth stage of the DTM. The population experiences low BRs,
resulting in a narrower base. Lower DRs mean that the pyramid is generally the most steep, with most
people living till life expectancy.

The pyramid top is now high and wide because more people are living longer lives. This also means that
DRs will increase slightly due to an aging population. Since women biologically live longer than men, it
means that there might be an imbalance of gender towards the top of the pyramid.
A regressive pyramid with low BRs and DRs also approximates zero population growth. Early regressive
pyramids have wider bases compared to late regressive pyramids, due to falling BRs over time.
 Examples of countries with regressive pyramids are normally DCs, such as the UK and many European
countries.

Information Extraction from Pyramids

Interpretation of population pyramids There are at least 7 kinds of information able to be gleaned from
pyramids.

1. Percentage of young, adult and aged populations, thus dependency ratios

Adding up percentages of each of the 3 main groups: young dependent (0-14), economically
active adults (15-64), old dependent (65 and over)
Depends on the working ages of the country in question. Dependency ratio can thus be
calculated from this information, both total dependency as well as young/old dependency

2. Current socio-economic levels based on demographic transition

Looking at the percentage share of the 3 main groups, the stage of the demographic
transition can be inferred
Less developed, Progressive, Stage 2: {Young 45%, Adult 52%, Old 3%}
Transitional, Intermediate, Stage 3: {Young 33%, Adult 59%, Old 8%}
Developed, Regressive, Stage 4: {Young 20%, Adult 64%, Old 16%}

3. Birth rates/Fertility rates

BRs can be estimated by looking at the bottom bar of the pyramid, the base. A wide bar
indicating high fertility rates can be due to compensation theory, successful pro-natal
policies or baby booms due to healthy economic growth
Look at: replacement level. A low BR might indicate an inability for the population to replace
itself, which may result in underpopulation or under utilisation of resources
Rate of natural increase. A high BR may indicate high increase, which may result in
overpopulation, overcrowding etc.
4. Death rates
When looking at DRs, there are two components IMR and deaths other than IMR
IMR important indicator of a countrys development, healthcare and sanitation, derived by
comparing the first two age bars
Other deaths Diseases, war and famine will cause the pyramid to taper rapidly since
deaths are spread across all groups. This is so for most LDCs. For DCs, a broad top
would mean more elderly, and thus more deaths from old age.

5. Life expectancy
The taller the pyramid, the higher the life expectancy

6. Sex ratio
The proportion of males to females.
At the top of the pyramid, there might be an imbalance since females live longer
If there is an imbalance at the base, it may indicate a preference for one gender, such
as patriarchal societies in Asia (China, India). This might have implications such as lack
of marriage partners, sex crimes, social imbalance, selective abortions, bride burnings,
infanticides and so on.

7. Migration patterns
 By comparing two regional pyramids, migration patterns can be inferred. It could
indicate internal migration, but not a definite. Migration can be implied if there is a
significant dent, indicating emigration, in one pyramid, and a corresponding bulge,
indicating immigration, in the other pyramid

Limitations of Population Pyramids

1. Does not show the cause of changes in BR and DR needs specific details to understand their causes.
Otherwise, they can only be inferred or suggested.
2. Problems of data collection undercounting population, does not consider homeless and mobile people
3. Only divided by age-sex other factors, possibly ethnicity and race
4. Does not indicate equity, quality of life, population density
5. Does not indicate racial and ethnic imbalances
6. Future predictions are still naturally limited by ceteris paribus assumption pro/anti natal policies may
be implemented, economic recessions may occur etc.

The Dependency Ratio

The dependency ratio is the age population ratio expressing the dependent population over the people
active in the workforce.
Dependency Ratio = No. of people aged < 14 + No. of people aged > 65
No. of people aged 15 to 64

Generally, the higher the dependency ratio, the larger the burden on the economically active workforce
who pay income taxes and contribute to the economy to support the economically dependent, such as in
public healthcare and expenditure.

The ratio is a useful comparative indicator of the average number of people each working member of the
population has to support. However, the age group definitions are arbitrary, subject to change when
taking into account school leaving age, retirement age etc.

Implications of Population Dependency

There are in general two main types of dependency child dependency and aged dependency,
depending on the structure of the population. Both have different implications on policy making.

For DCs with a high dependency ratio, such as Japan or the UK (50-55% ratio), the main cause is likely
aged dependency due to an aging population. A combination of low birthrates and long life expectancy
means that an increasing proportion of the population is expected to become elderly, meaning that each
individual member of the workforce will have to support more dependents, such as via income taxes.
Policy implications include the need for more and better geriatric care, healthcare for aged diseases, old
age homes, pension schemes, insurance etc. Also, some countries may consider raising the retirement
age, as Singapore has done from 62 to 65. Countries may also like to focus on long-term policies such as
raising fertility rates via pro-natal policies, but these have rarely been successful.

For dependent LDCs (with a ratio of 55-60%) such as India and Bangladesh, this is often caused by child
dependency due to high birthrates. Reasons for this may include cultural reasons or other fertility
variables. This implies a need for better education, more schools, childcare needs, parental benefits etc.
Some countries have extremely high dependency ratios of above 80% such as Angola and Zambia,
mainly due to their active workforce heavily impacted by diseases such as AIDS, along with a particularly
high fertility rate as a result of the compensation effect.
 Socio-Economic Composition

Discuss the socio-economic differentials among various ethnic groups.

Discuss the criteria used to measure inequalities in populations on a global or national scale.
Discuss the level of inequality that exists between populations and between different sectors of the
same population.

Ethnic Inequalities

Causes of Racial/Ethnic Discrimination and Inequalities

The denial of equal rights is a central feature of discrimination. Most commonly, denial of equal rights
comes from denial of equal access to basic rights, in particular, equal access to a share of societys basic
resources. Dominated groups frequently suffer poor basic amenities in the form of housing, health and
educational facilities. This may not be the result of legislation discriminating against them but because of
the way market forces and powerful pressure groups work to deny access.

For example, it is said that in both the US and UK, ethnic minority groups are discriminated against in the
housing market in terms of availability of mortgages and by agents being persuaded not to deal with
ethnic minority families wanting to purchase homes in predominantly white neighbourhoods. Much more
significantly, minorities are often forced to live in deprived areas, such as inner city areas and areas
where provision of facilities is poor. Due to low incomes, it is difficult to move to better neighbourhoods
and enhance standard of living. Active discrimination causes resentment and alienation into the
mainstream of society.

Solving Ethnic Problems

Acts of discrimination based on ethnic differences may decrease over time due to a few reasons.
The growing influence of international organization to find and address inequalities which exist
within and between countries.
Improved communication across the globe and increased contact between people is facilitated
by personal mobility.
Increasing realization of the interdependence between countries as more nations are integrated
into a world system. Disputes arising from inequalities and exploitation of one group by another
can spill over into other areas.
Increasing emphasis on resolving disputes through discussion with the help of external
mediators rather than through violence or armed struggle.
 Population Change and Planning

Discuss the links between the Demographic Transition Theory and age structure.
Discuss the various stages of the Demographic Transition Theory.
Apply the Demographic Transition Theory to population growth in LDCs and DCs.
Evaluate the reasons for having pro- or anti-natal policies.
Compare the effectiveness of pro-/anti-natal policies in LDCs and DCs.
Analyse how population growth is affected by government planning.

The Demographic Transition Model

The demographic transition model (DTM) charts the change of a countrys population from high BRs and
DRs to low levels over four stages. Recently, new trends have led to the proposal of 5 th and even 6th
stages to the DTM.

The DTM was conceptualized in the 1950s based on the consistent demographic experiences of western
European countries which underwent the Industrial Revolution. It attempts to explain a countrys current
socio-economic development based on its current demographics.

Stage 1: High Stationary Stage: High BRs (35/1000), High DRs (35/1000)
In the first stage, population approximates zero growth as both BRs and DRs are high, canceling out each
other.

High BRs of approximately 35/1000

The high BRs are due to a few possible reasons:
1. An agrarian society and the need for familial labour in labour-intensive farms, which is true of
medieval England, pre-industrial Europe, or rural regions in Africa.
2. For some communities, the social mindset is that a familial culture reigns, such as in China.
3. Ignorance, unavailability or low level of acceptance against contraception. Some rural areas
either do not have access to contraception, cannot afford it or are unwilling to use it.
4. Inaccessibility of certain areas to education of family planning.
5. Compensation effect where death rates are high, especially IMR, more are born to make up
for this loss, so some children will survive.
6. Longer fertility rate due to earlier marriages true of certain cultural beliefs, such as
prearranged marriages in India and China.

High DRs of approximately 35/1000

Normally due to poor healthcare and hygiene, rudimentary medicine and healthcare levels. Inaccessibility
to medicine due to being rural. Not affordable due to being poor.

There are almost no examples of countries today in Stage 1 of the DTM, as medicine and healthcare has
become available to most. Ethiopia has a 39/1000 BR and a 20/1000 DR, showing that DR have also
gone down in most countries worldwide. Only extremely rural and backward areas, such as in some parts
of Africa and India, approximate Stage 1.
Stage 2: Expansionary Stage: High BRs (35/1000), Declining DRs (35 to 20/1000)
Rapid population growth occurs in Stage 2 as BRs remain high while DRs rapidly decrease, increasing
the rate of natural increase.
Rapidly declining DR from 35/1000 to 20/1000
The Industrial Revolution in Europe brought down DRs due to rapid improvements in technology,
facilitating medicine, food production, transport and so on. The shift from an agrarian to an industrial
society improved the standard and quality of life. There was mass employment due to the factory system
and vaccinations greatly improved the situation against the epidemic-rife period.
Generally, this fall in death rates is due to greatly improved healthcare. Todays LDCs have greater
accessibility to healthcare imports, greatly bringing down DRs.
High BRs of 35/1000
The lag period between fall in DRs and the BRs was largely due to mindset. While decreasing DRs was
easy through medicine and technology, shifting mindsets to reduce BRs takes time. BRs are driven by
deep-seated social factors such as familial labour, community spirit, religion and biological compensation.
Recent falls in DRs for LDCs were much more rapid than the falls in early Europe. This had the effect of
exacerbating the overpopulation effect.

Stage 3: Contractionary Stage: Declining BRs (35 to 20/1000), Low DRs (15/1000)
At this stage, population increase starts to decrease as BRs fall.

Declining BRs to 20/1000

Socio-cultural changes in mindset, increasing affluence as well as cost of living, changing ideas of family
life decreases the BR. This has happened in China and India, both rather traditional in mindset initially,
but has since transformed in terms of social mindsets. Anti-natal policies may also have played roles in
lowering the BR.

Low DRs of 15/1000

DRs continue to fall at a slower, gradual pace as medicine and healthcare becomes more accessible and
affordable to a larger section of the population.
Present day China, Brazil, Argentina and other NIEs fall into Stage 3 today.

Stage 4: Low Stationary Stage: Low BRs (16/1000), Low DRs (12/1000)
Stage 4 also approximates zero growth and minimal population increase, as both BRs and DRs are low.

Low BRs at 16/1000 and low DRs at 12/1000

Countries reaching Stage 4 of the DTM have completed the transition from high to low levels of BR and
DR. BRs are low due to emancipation and changing roles of women, with women having more rights,
liberalisation and education. Also, higher costs of living means children are seen as a liability instead of
an asset (costs $260,000 to bring up a child in Singapore). Increased access to family planning,
contraception, and a shift to a more urbane mindset in a capitalist society also lowers the BR.
Low DRs are due to social medical advancements, such as increased availability of child immunization,
advanced medical technology such as chemotherapy and biotechnology and better insurance.
Most DCs are at least in Stage 4 today some have even shown new trends which may justify the need
for a 5th and 6th stage.

Possible Stages: Stage 5 and Stage 6

Imaginary Stage 5
Stage 5 is a theoretical stage for many DCs now, as BRs are hovering extremely low around DRs, and
can even go below DRs and replacement level. Countries like Germany and Singapore are experiencing
natural decrease as socio-economic factors drive down BRs even further. This depicts an inverse
relationship with HDI and fertility rates.

Possible Stage 6
The UN discovered that for some countries, TFR increased slightly after HDI hit 0.9, showing a possible
positive correlation at very high levels of development (Maslows hierarchy). This is tenuous at best, and
maybe even limited by culture, as the only countries not conforming to this were Japan, South Korea and
Canada. Furthermore, the slight increase in TFR is ultimately not able to reverse the trend of decreasing
fertility and is unable to stabilise the population.

Application and Relevance of the DTM

In general, the DTM is useful in classifying countries into categories and explaining their current socio-
economic development with respect to BRs and DRs. However, it should be noted that different countries
naturally have different, place specific explanations for their BRs and DRs that the DTM cannot explain.
The DTM cannot be used to explain demographic histories specifically, since it is based on England
alone. Also, it does not take into account other intervening factors like government policies.

For most DCs, the DTM is largely relevant to countries completing the transition at the same time as the
UK due to similar histories and migration trends. However, migration is not taken into account for the
DTM, and is assumed to remain stable, while this is unlikely to be the case, due to changing immigration
policies. Also, the possibility of Stages 5 and 6 may render the 4-stage DTM model outdated.

An interesting point is that some DCs have DRs higher than BRs, and this is the basis of Stage 5. While it
could be due to decreasing BR, it could also be due to increasing DR as a result of an aging population.
For example, Italys DR is 10.2/1000, higher than its BR of 9/1000. Its death rate is higher than
Indonesias at 6/1000. Better healthcare, medicine and nutrition, along with better education, affluence
and infrastructure, increasing the quality of life and extending life expectancies.

For LDCs, the DTM works only as a classifying tool, unable to reflect many aspects. For one, it does not
indicate the time period the country took to reach their present stage Singapore took only 30 years to
complete the 4 stages, while the original UK-based model assumed that it would take 140 years due to
the need for assuming status quo with regards to social and technological advancement. Also, it does not
reflect how long a country will remain in that stage. Certain LDCs like Chad and Ethiopia have remained
in Stage 2 for the past 30 years without much sign of change.

Some countries dont even fit into the DTM as it is generalized from European countries, while countries
such as Pakistan and Egypt have very different demographics due to cultural differences (such as
religions which forbid contraception, resulting in very high BRs yet very low DRs). It also does not take
into account phenomena, such as HIV AIDS which actually reversed DTM progress in Sudan and Nigeria
between 1975 and 2005, which greatly increased mortality and IMR.

Different histories between DCs and LDCs also make it unable to apply the DTM to LDCs entirely.
Migration policies were laxer in the past, allowing for Europeans to migrate easily, bringing down BRs
quickly than LDCs today. DCs also had smaller population bases in the past compared to large LDC
population bases today. It is more difficult for LDCs to reduce their BRs today.
Population Planning Pro-natal Policies
Country Reasons Policies Effectiveness/Criticism

Singapore TFR Baby Bonus Scheme and Purely monetary policies are
dropped from Third Child Paid Maternity unlikely to work given as the
1.96 in 1988 to Scheme main factor is changing social
1.42 in 2001 Maternity leave and baby mindsets
Rapidly bonuses Even so, government
ageing $9000 for second child, attempts to change these
population $18000 for third child mindsets are seen as overly
(25% by 2025) Children Development controlling and decision limiting,
Previous Account: government matches making them seem artificial and
measures in amount saved into account up worsening the situation
Have Three or to $6000 for 1st child, $12000 SMEs not entirely accepting
More were for 2nd-4th children and $18000 since small workforce means
largely for 5th child missing employees are
monetary and 8 weeks of paid maternity important
ineffective leave for working mothers who Apparently ineffective TFR
give birth to third child up to dropped further to 1.11
$20000
Family friendly workplaces
initiatives e.g. Work-Life Unit,
Family-Friendly Firm Award

Japan Emphasize Angel Plan in December Appeared to be ineffective

work-child care 1994 TFR continued to fall to 1.23 in
compatibility Cash benefits, work 2008
Public incentives, childcare incentives, As usual, monetary policies
support for work support for mothers were largely ineffective
childcare Monthly child allowance of Childcare incentives only raised
Ageing US$100 per child up to primary enrolment rate previously un-
population school children in 2006 enrolled children were enrolled
(21% 65 and Zero Waiting List for by parents no real increase in
above) Daycares as a goal. Daycare fertility rate
TFR low at enrolment rate rose from 15.6%
1.57 in 1989 in 2001 to 20.3% in 2007
Childcare Leave Law: 50% of
wages (2006) paid during
childcare leave
Support Plan for Mothers
Re-entry into Labour Market
(2004) vocational schools to
impart new skills to women,
workshops to help start
businesses

France Ageing Pro-natal Package Appears to be effective TFR

 population Extensive subsidies and is highest in ageing Europe,
Increasingly bonuses families pay less tax increasing trend (now 2.02)
dependent in France than singles/childless Generally well-received by
population couples the public
Daycare costs a third as much Key factor appears to be
as other countries public acceptance of the
Transport concessions for governments efforts
families with more than 2 receptivity is ultimately what
children. 50% off train fares for matters compared to other
1.5 years, 1 year off work for countries
the mother
Strong support and protection
for womens jobs, high female
participation in economy

Population Planning Anti-natal Policies

Country Policies Effectiveness Criticism

China One-Child TFR fell from 3 in 1980 to Violation of human rights -

Policy (1979) 1.8 in 2008 bribery, coercion, compulsory
Restricts urban Overpopulation problems sterilization, abortion and
Han couples to e.g. epidemics and slums infanticide. Quota of 20000
only 1 child have been reduced in severity abortions and sterilizations set for
Rural couples, Improved healthcare Huaiji County in Guangdong
ethnic minorities better health services for Province
and parents who women, reduction in risks 4-2-1 problem: increasing
are themselves associated with pregnancy dependency on the working
only children are e.g. free contraception, pre- population in the future lower
exempted natal classes, Care for Girls taxes and heavy burden on
Flouting the program eliminating cultural economically active, elderly at risk
policy results in discrimination against girls of little to no support after
heavy fines of up Economic growth retirement
to 30% annual reducing demand for natural Problems for the next generation
income resources, maintaining stable Little Emperors due to
labour rate, reducing surplus overindulgence, imbalanced sex
labour, reducing exploitation ratios may lead to social ills:
117:100 male to female births in
2000

India Largely Contraceptive use has more A large ratio of illiteracy and the
government than tripled (13% of married lack of accessibility to
sponsored anti- women in 1970 to 49% in contraceptives limits the full
natal policies to 2009) potential and effectiveness of the
deal with TFR halved from 5.7 in policies
population 1966 to 2.7 in 2009 Effectiveness varies across
increase Affords women a degree of regions and states due to differing
Provision of choice levels of literacy and affluence
 contraceptives Successful implementation Tamil Nadus TFR reduced to 1.8,
Family planning relies on education higher Uttar Pradeshs TFR to 3.8
education education levels and economic
opportunities for women
possible

Iran Late 1980s to TFR dropped from 6.5 from Legislation was deemed to be
early 1990s, 1975-80 to about 1.71 in 2007 extremely overbearing
religious emphasis Usage of legislation to Lack of sustained usage
Government enforce was effective discontinued in 2006 by new
declaration: Islam mandatory contraceptive president. Can result in returned
favoured families courses before marriage problems of overpopulation and
with 2 children license can be attained and associated effects
Nationwide benefits doled out
campaign with Advertising/packaging of
introduction of imported contraceptives
contraceptives