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5. Business Cycle
a. Alternating periods of economic growth and
contraction, broken into four parts (macroeconomic goal is for smooth
business cycle, directed upward as often as possible)
i. Trough (bottom point)
ii. Recovery/growth (trough to peak)
iii. Peak (top point)
iv. Recession (peak to trough)
i. Measuring Unemployment
i. Labor Force: employed + unemployed
ii. Employed: working and not looking for work
iii. Unemployed: not working, able to work, and looking for work
iv. Unemployment rate = ( unemployment total / labor force ) * 100
v. Types of Unemployment:
1. Seasonal: unemployed during periods between agricultural seasons, tourist
seasons, school breaks, etc
2. Frictional: unemployment as people move between jobs or into the labor market
3. Structural: workers laid off by declining industry/regions or job made obsolete
4. Cyclical: unemployment due to changes in economic cycle (during recession)
vi. Unemployment Vocab to Know
1. Underemployed: people seeking FT paid employment; working PT when qualified
for FT; or those employed at a level lower than their capability
2. Discouraged Workers: not considered in the labor force because they are not
actively seeking work; likely to re-enter when labor market improves
vii. Consequences to Unemployment
1. Lost output, measured by Okuns Law (for every 1% increase in unemployment,
2.5% loss of total output (GDP))
10. Keynesian Approach to Aggregate Spending
a. Consumption
i. MPC (Marginal Propensity to Consume) = change in C / change in Y = fraction of an extra
dollar of income that is spent
ii. APC (Average Propensity to Consume) = C / Y = fraction of an average dollar that is spent
b. Savings = Income Consumption
i. MPS (Marginal Propensity to Save) = change in S / change in Y = fraction of an extra dollar
that is saved
ii. APC (Average Propensity to Save) = S / Y fraction of an average dollar that is saved
c. MPC + MPS = 1
d. APC + APS = 1
e. Government Expenditures (G) = federal, state and local government spending
i. Two types: direct purchases by the government or transfer payments that redistribute
income from one group to another
f. Foreign Sector (EX IM)
i. Exports: spending by foreigners on domestically produced goods
ii. Imports: spending by domestic residents on goods produced in foreign countries
g. Keynesian Equilibrium
i. Achieved when output (Y)= aggregate expenditures (AE)
ii. Y = AE
iii. Y = C+I+G+NX
11. GDP Gap and the Multiplier
a. Gaps: Differences between spending at equilibrium GDP and full-employment equilibrium
i. Recessionary Gap: amount by which the equilibrium GDP falls short from full-
employment equilibrium
ii. Inflationary Gap: amount by which equilibrium GDP surpasses full-employment
equilibrium
b. How to adjust to gaps?
i. Keynesian Answer: G only way to guarantee an AD
ii. Classical Answer: no government intervention (wait for I and C to AD)
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c. Expenditure Multiplier: the multiple by which an initial change in aggregate spending will alter
total expenditure after an infinite number of spending cycles
i. Multiplier = (1 / (1 MPC)) :::OR::: (1 / MPS)
d. For Example:
Question: How much of an increase in I is required to solve the deflationary gap?
MPC = 0.8
Deflationary Gap = $300 million
Answer: I x multiplier = $300 million
I x (1/MPS) = $300 million
I = $300m x MPS
I = $300m x (1/MPC)
I = $300m x 0.2
I = $60m
12. Fiscal Policy: what the government does to change the level of total spending in the economy with taxes
or government spending (G)
a. Expansionary Fiscal Policy
i. Increases government spending G or decreasing taxes (New Deal policies); bigger
budget deficit
b. Contractionary Fiscal Policy
i. Decreases in government or increasing taxes; smaller budget deficit or possible surplus
c. Keynesian Fiscal Policy
i. Use of fiscal policy to eliminate GDP gaps, discretionary fiscal policy (not automatic fiscal
policy, it can change year to year)
d. Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers
i. Built-in federal spending/tax policies that automatically respond to changes in national
income (ie-taxes are automatically withdrawn from paycheck, so taxes with income)
e. Problems with Fiscal Policy
i. Have to estimate all variables
ii. Government not able to alter G or taxes quickly, typically have to wait for legislation to be
approved
iii. Financing deficits can have offsetting effects, called crowding out, when a government
finances a deficit, the expansionary or contractionary effects are not fully felt in the
economy because it takes away or adds to investments and consumption (ie-if the
government sells bonds to finance expansionary fiscal policy, it takes away funds from
potential private investment, so G is offset by I)
13. Determining PLe and Ye in the aggregate economy
a. AD (aggregate demand): total quantity of output
demanded at any price level
i. Slopes downward because:
1. Real balances effect: price changes
affect the real value of GDP
2. Foreign trade effect: domestic
price increase lowers exports while increasing imports; goods are
more expensive domestically and cheaper overseas; lower exports
and higher imports means lower expenditures on domestic
goods/services
3. Interest-rate effect: increase in
prices causes an increase in money demand (MD); increase in
MD raises interest rates, which lowers investments, lowering total
expenditures
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c. MONETARY POLICY: policy set by the central bank that aims to manipulate the money supply
(MS)
i. OMOs (Open Market Operations): buying/sales of bonds (buy bonds, go big MS; sell
bonds, go small MS)
ii. Change the Reserve Requirement
iii. Change the Discount Rate/Discount Window (interest rate charged to banks by the Fed
for borrowing funds)
d. To decrease MS (Contractionary)
i. Increase RR
ii. Increase DR
iii. Sell bonds
e. To increase MS (Expansionary)
i. Decrease RR
ii. Decrease DR
iii. Buy bonds
f. Demand Money (MD)
i. The quantities of money people are
willing and able to hold across interest rates
b. SRPC (Short Run Phillips Curve): negative relationship between inflation and unemployment rate
c. LRPC (Long Run Phillips Curve): with expectations of inflation met, changes in expectation have
no effect on unemployment; LRPC is when actual inflation = expected inflation
20. Fighting Stagflation (Combination of high/accelerating inflation with high unemployment)
a. Classical: run a recession to squeeze inflationary expectations out of the economy
b. Keynesian: wage and price controls (pressure on individual to hold down wages/prices) to lower
inflation expectations which will shift SRPC to the left without causing a recession; lift regulations
when LRPC is reached
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5. Business Cycle
j. Alternating periods of economic growth and
contraction, broken into four parts (macroeconomic goal is for
smooth business cycle, directed upward as often as possible)
i. ____________________ (bottom point)
ii. Recovery/growth (trough to peak)
iii. ____________________ (top point)
iv. Recession (peak to trough)
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7. Macroeconomic Theories
a. Classical Economics (____________________): Wages and prices are flexible; the economy is
____________________in the long run; minimum government intervention required; persistent
unemployment requires supply-side policies (deregulation and tax cuts); Equilibrium is reached
when SRAS, LRAS and AD intersect
b. Keynesian Economics (____________________): wages and prices are ____________________
(slow to change), economy cannot rely on private investment and consumption, must use
____________________spending to spark economic growth; persistent unemployment requires
demand-side policies (G and decrease taxes)
8. Maroeconomic Theories and Their Opinions on the Financial Sector
a. Classical: financial market works smoothly; investment and savings will always be equal; interest
rates changes to ensure this equality
b. Keynesian: savings and investments are often unequal with the monetary sector not working
properly; AD does not equal AS; imbalances are typically caused by ___________________
effects; discretionary fiscal policy is needed to implements to change savings
9. Aggregates in the Macroeconomy
n. GDP (Gross Domestic Product): value of production within a countrys boundaries
i. Measured as consumption + investments + government spending + exports imports OR
________________________________________
o. rGDP (real Gross Domestic Product): GDP with adjustment for ____________________
p. Measuring Price Level:
i. Price Index: average level of prices relative to the average level in a base period of time;
cost of a fixed ____________________of goods/services as a percentage of base period
cost
ii. GDP Price Index: a measure of changes in the ____________________price of all goods
and services
iii. CPI (Consumer Price Index): a measure of changes in the average price of urban consumer
goods and services
iv. Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA): Automatic adjustments of income to the rate of
inflation
q. Measuring Inflation
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iii. Financing deficits can have offsetting effects, called crowding out, when a government
finances a deficit, the expansionary or contractionary effects are not fully felt in the
economy because it takes away or adds to ____________________ and consumption (ie-
if the government sells bonds to finance expansionary fiscal policy, it takes away funds
from potential private investment, so G is offset by I)
13. Determining PLe and Ye in the aggregate economy
a. AD (aggregate demand): total quantity of output demanded at any price level
i. Slopes downward because:
1. Real balances effect: price changes affect the real value of GDP
2. Foreign trade effect: domestic price increase lowers exports while increasing
imports; goods are more expensive domestically and cheaper overseas; lower
exports and higher imports means lower expenditures on domestic
goods/services
3. Interest-rate effect: increase in prices causes an increase in money demand
(MD); increase in MD raises interest rates, which lowers investments, lowering
total expenditures
b. AS (aggregate supply): total quantity of output
supplied at any price level
i. SRAS (short run aggregate supply): as
price level rises, quantity of output rises
as firms seek higher profits; in the SR,
prices of inputs are
___________________; as firms expand
output (even with a fixed input price)
price level rises due to diminishing
returns
ii. LRAS (long run aggregate supply): as
price level rises, there is no increase in output the economy is at full employment of all
___________________
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