Commodities I Agro

April 10, 2013

Spices Market pulse
Commodity High Low Close %Chg OI
Arrivals of chilli crop declined to about 1-1.2lakh
Chilli (`/qntl)
bags while demand was seen firm with local
NCDEX Apr 6,240 6,172 6,214 0.5 1,585 buyers active at daily auctions held at Guntur
NCDEX June 6,658 6,556 6,626 0.5 21,385 market. Spot rates were unchanged & quoted at
Jeera (`/qntl) `50-`55 per kg based on crop quality.
NCDEX Apr 13,965 13,708 13,850 1.2 1,512
Arrivals of jeera crop stood steady ~48,000-
NCDEX May 14,125 13,763 13,965 1.2 13,944
50,000 bags while trades increased to more than
Pepper (`/qntl) 55,000 bags, supported by demand among local
NCDEX Apr 36,300 35,645 35,900 0.7 338 buyers, exporters & hedgers at auctions held at
NCDEX May 35,950 35,435 35,700 0.3 1,418 Unjha market. Spot rates were quoted around
Turmeric (`/qntl) `130 per kg, as per local traders.
NCDEX Apr 6,910 6,650 6,900 2.7 945
Spot rates of pepper garbled increased to `362
NCDEX Jun 7,080 6,894 7,060 2.5 27,255 per kg and that of un-garbled was up at `347 per
Cardamom (`/kg) kg while arrivals increased to 57 tons & trades
MCX Apr 873.5 858.0 863.7 (0.0) 1,619 too were up at 60 tons at auctions held at Kochi
MCX May 898.4 885.5 892.9 0.1 2,291 market, as per IPSTA.
Average price of small cardamom increased to
Oil Seeds `686.6 per kg while maximum price offered was
Commodity High Low Close %Chg OI up at `908 per kg, as per spice board.
Soya bean (`/qntl)
Total inflow of small cardamom crop increased to
NCDEX Apr 4,150 4,085 4,135 0.5 20,700
84.6 tons from which ~82.1 tons were sold at
NCDEX May 4,025 3,932 4,009 1.4 100,150
SIGC auction held at Kochi.
Soya oil (`/10kg)
NCDEX Apr 725.5 719.1 723.4 0.4 37,360 Arrivals of Soya bean crop stood steady ~0.6-
NCDEX May 714.8 706.5 713.0 0.8 97,850
0.7lakh bags across MP market, but increased to
RM seed (`/qntl)
about 1,500 bags at mandis of Indore while
supply increased to 20,000 bags across mandis
NCDEX Apr 3,614 3,574 3,580 (0.3) 14,000
of Rajasthan & about 30,000 bags at mandis of
NCDEX Jun 3,660 3,616 3,621 (0.4) 81,700
Maharashtra, as per trade reports.
CPO (`/10kg)
MCX Apr 468.8 464.5 465.8 (0.4) 2,761 Spot rates of soya bean crop offered by planters
MCX May 470.5 466.8 468.0 (0.2) 4,613 are above `40-`41 per kg while rates across
major mandis has increased to `39-`40 per kg, as
per local traders.
Others
Commodity High Low Close %Chg OI India's total oil-meal exports in the FY2012-13 fell
Mentha oil (`/Kg) by 14.3% to 4.8mn tons, largely reflecting
MCX Apr 1,025.2 1,001.1 1,010.5 (1.5) 2,439 adverse effects of a Chinese ban prompted by
MCX May 1,013.0 990.2 994.5 (1.7) 981 worries about a hazardous chemical and a drop
Chana (`/Kg) in demand from Japan, as per the Solvent
NCDEX Apr 3,590.0 3,545.0 3,586.0 0.4 8,020
Extractors' Association of India.
NCDEX Jun 3,638.0 3,585.0 3,623.0 0.1 92,660 Exports of oil-meal to China were almost non-
existent in the previous fiscal after clocking
Spot prices 354,405 tons in 2011-12 while exports to Japan
Commodity Close Pr. Close % Chg fell sharply by 50% to 638,201 tons, as per SEA
Chilli (`/qntl) 6,089.5 6,145.0 (0.9) of India.
Jeera (`/qntl) 13,778.6 13,660.7 0.9 Inflow of mustard seed crop increased to 295,410
Pepper (`/qntl) 36,169.2 36,231.3 (0.2) quintals, while average of closing spot rates were
Turmeric (`/qntl) 6,552.1 6,552.1 0.0 up at `3,123.6 per quintal, as per agriculture
Cardamom (`/kg) 896.4 904.3 (0.9) marketing board of Rajasthan.
Soya bean (`/qntl) 4,106.0 4,085.0 0.5
Total arrivals of mustard seed crop were steady
Soya oil (`/10kg) 726.8 724.5 0.3 ~6.4-6.5lakh bags across major trading center
CPO (`/kg) 462.1 461.9 0.0 while spot rates were unchanged & quoted at
Chana (`/qntl) 3,584.0 3,608.7 (0.7) `36-`37.5 per kg based on quality & location, as
Sugar (`/qntl) 3,325.0 3,322.5 0.1 per market reports.
Guar seed (`/qntl) -- -- --
Spot rates of mentha oil were down by another
Guar Gum (`/qntl) -- -- -- `15-`20 per kg while futures continued their
Mentha oil (`/Kg) 1,123 1,130 (0.6) bearish trend on the exchange counter, mainly
COCUDAKL (`/qntl) 1,617 1,591 1.6 due to poor local & export demand & steady
supply at local markets.

Sr.Analyst:PranavMerIpranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI02230687969
501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.
 Commodities I Agro
April 10, 2013

Pivot levels
Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
Chilli (Apr) 6,267 6,248 6,230 6,214 6,198 6,180 6,161
Jeera (Apr) 14,052 13,979 13,911 13,850 13,789 13,721 13,648
Pepper (Apr) 36,414 36,228 36,054 35,900 35,746 35,573 35,386
Turmeric (Apr) 7,104 7,030 6,961 6,900 6,839 6,770 6,696
Cardamom (Apr) 875.9 871.5 867.3 863.7 860.1 856.0 851.5
Soya bean (Apr) 4,186 4,168 4,150 4,135 4,120 4,103 4,084
Soya oil (Apr) 728.4 726.6 724.9 723.4 721.9 720.2 718.4
CPO (Apr) 469.2 468.0 466.8 465.8 464.8 463.7 462.4
RM seed (Apr) 3,611.4 3,600.0 3,589.4 3,580.0 3,570.6 3,560.0 3,548.6
Sugar (Apr) 2,898 2,895 2,892 2,889 2,886 2,884 2,880
Mentha Oil (Apr) 1,029 1,023 1,016 1,011 1,005 998 992
Chana (Apr) 3,621.3 3,608.5 3,596.6 3,586.0 3,575.4 3,563.5 3,550.7
COCUDAKL (Apr) 1,573 1,568 1,564 1,560 1,556 1,552 1,547
Kapas (Apr) 949 943 937 931 925 919 913
A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day.
Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

Trade Recommendations
Commodity Strategy Levels Target 1 Target 2 Stop-Loss Trend*
Chilli (Jun) Buy Above 6660 6710 6760 6625 Up
Jeera (May) Buy 13850-13880 14000 14150 13745 Down
Turmeric (May) Buy Above 7080 7140 7200 7040 Sideways
COCUDAKL (May) Buy Around 1560 1590 1620 1540 Up
Chana (May) Hold Buy Above 3580 3640 3700 3580 Sideways
Cardamom (Apr) -- -- -- -- -- Sideways
Soya bean (May) Hold Buy Above 3980 4030 4080 3945 Up
Soya oil (May) Hold Buy Above 709.5 713 717 706.5 Up
Mustard seed (May) Sell Below 3615 3580 3550 3635 Sideways
Kapas (April) Hold Buy Above 925 940 955 915 Sideways
**Strict Stop-Loss *Trend - its an overall trend & not a part of intra-day buy/sell strategies.
Note: Calls given above are purely technical calls and not based on fundamentals.

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IdeasgivenundertheCommoditiessectionareforintradaypurposeoruptoaperiodofthreetradingsessions.Recommendationsunderthisheadingarenotnecessarilypartofourfundamentalbuyorselllist.

Sr.Analyst:PranavMerIpranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI02230687969
501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.