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Chapter1:IntroducingthePuzzle
1.1:APuzzle
1. SknowsthatSwonthaveenoughmoneytogoonasafarithis
year.
2. IfSknowsthatSwonthaveenoughmoneytogoonasafarithis
year,thenSisinapositiontoknowthatSwillnotwinamajor
prizeinalotterythisyear.
3. Hence,SisinapositiontoknowthatSwillnotwinamajorprizein
alotterythisyear.
Wehavetheintuitionthat[1]and[2]aretrue,butinspiteofthefactthat
[3]followsfrom[1]and[2],wehavetheintuitionthat[3]isnottrue.
OtherInstancesofthePuzzle
1. IknowthatIwillbelivinginSyracuseforpartofthissummer.
2. IdontknowthatIwillnotsufferafatalheartattackinthenext
week.
3. Iknowthatmycarisnowparkedinlocationx.
4. Idontknowthatmycarhasnotbeenstoleninthelastfew
minutes.
5. IknowthatGeorgeW.BushisnowthePresidentoftheUnited
States.
6. IdontknowthatBushhasntbeenassassinatedinthelastfew
minutes.
7. Iknowthatmyrefrigeratorisrunning.
8. Idontknowthattherehasntbeenanelectricaloutageinmy
neighborhoodinthelastfewminutes.
9. IknowthattheLakerswonlastnight.
10. Idontknowthattherewasntamisprintinthismorningspaper.
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11. Iknowthattheresadeskinfrontofme.
12. Idontknowthatthedeskhasntveryrecentlydevelopedintoa
deskfaade.
TheStructureofLotteryPuzzles
Thereis
1. anordinaryproposition,apropositionofthesortthatwe
ordinarilytakeourselvestoknow(p.5).
2. alotteryproposition,apropositionofthesortthat,while
highlylikely,isapropositionthatwewouldbeintuitively
disinclinedtotakeourselvestoknow(p.5).
1.2:TheLotteryProposition
[T]helotterypropositionishighlylikelyrelativetothepersons
evidence(p.8).
WhyDoWeThinkThatWeDontKnowLotteryPropositions?
1. Ourintuitiondoesnotdependontherebeingaguaranteedwinner.
2. Itdoesntdependonthefactthateachtickethasanequalchanceof
winning.
3. Itdoesntdependonthefactthattheepistemicsubjectunder
considerationhasmerelystatisticalreasonsforbelievingthatheor
shewilllosethelottery.
4. Itdoesntdependonanyofthefollowingepistemologicaltheories:
a. Thejustifiedtruebeliefaccountofknowledge
b. Reliabilism
c. Thetruebeliefsupportedbygoodevidenceaccount
d. Asensitivityaccount,neithersensitivitysimpliciternor
sensitivity*,i.e.,asensitivityconditionthathasbeenrelativized
tobeliefformingmethods.(Inthelattercase,wesometimes
havetheintuitionthatSsbeliefthatpisnotsensitive*,along
withtheintuitionthatSdoesntknowthatp.Atothertimes,
thoughforexample,inVogelsholeinonecase(seep.12)and
inHawthornesmatchboxandmispronunciationcaseswe
havetheintuitionthatSsbeliefthatpisnotsensitive*,along
withtheintuitionthatSdoesknowthatp.)
5. Itdoesdependon[s]omethinginthevicinityofthepresenceof
probabilisticthoughts(p.14).HeresHawthornesproposal:
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intheparadigmlotterysituation,somethinglikethe
followinggoeson:Theascriberdividesthepossibilityspace
intoasetofsubcases,eachofwhich,fromthepointofview
ofthesubject,isoverwhelminglylikelytonotobtain,but
whicharesuchthatthesubjectsgroundsforthinkingthat
anyoneofthesubcasesdoesnotobtainisnotappreciably
differentthanhisgroundsforthinkingthatanyother
subcasedoesnotobtain.UsingDeRosesterminology,the
relativestrengthofepistemicpositionwithregardtoeach
subcaseisnotappreciablydifferent(pp.1415).
Wemightputthisasaprincipleinthefollowingway:
ParityReasoning:Oneconceptualizesthepropositionthatpasthe
propositionthatoneparticularmemberofasetofsubcases(p1,,
pn)will(ordoes)notobtain,whereonehasnoappreciablystronger
reasonforthinkingthatanygivenmemberofthesetwillnotobtain
thanonehasforthinkingthatanyotherparticularmemberwillnot
obtain.Insofarasonereckonsitabsurdtosupposethatoneisable
toknowofeachof(p1,,pn)thatitwillnotobtain,onethen
reckonsoneselfunabletoknowthatp.
ApplyingtheParityReasoningProposaltoCases
[O]nthepictureIamadvancing,oneswillingnessto[sayone
knowsthattherewillnotbesixtyholesinone]dependsonnot
havingdividedtheHeartbreakercaseintoasetofsubcasesto
whichparityreasoningcanapply(p.17).
1.3:Assertion,Probability,PracticalReasoning
Hawthornemaintainsthatweshouldpayespeciallycarefulattentionto
threephenomenathatarecloselytiedtoknowledge(p.21):
1. Assertion
a. Wearenotinclinedtoattributetoourselvesknowledgeofa
lotteryproposition,L,andatthesametime,wearenot
inclinedtoassertL.
b. Perhapswecanaccountfortheformerfactbysayingthat
weviolatesomeconversationalmaximwhenweattribute
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knowledgeofLtoourselves.Inthiscase,wewouldntneed
tosaythatwefailtoknowthatL.(Thisisonestrategyfor
denyingapremiseofthelotteryargument.)
c. Hawthorneargues,though,thatthiswontwork.Still,there
isaconversationalmaximatworkhere,anditsthe
KnowledgeAccountofAssertion(KAA):Imayassertthatp
onlyifIknowthatp.Thus,inthecaseoflottery
propositions,mynotknowingthatLaccountsperfectlywell
formynotbeinginclinedtoassertit.Noconversational
maximallowsustoknowthatL,butmynotknowingthatL,
givenKAA,givesusafineexplanationofthefactthatwe
arentinclinedtoassertthatL.
2. Probability
a. Thereisalsoastrikingtiebetweenourwillingnesstoassert
ItmightbethatpandThereisachancethatpontheone
hand,andourwillingnesstoassertIdonotknowthatnot
pandIdonotknowwhetherornotpontheother(p.24).
b. (1) ItispossiblethatpforSatt(Thereisachancethatp
forSatt)iffpisconsistentwithwhatSknowsatt(p.
26).
c. (3) AnutteranceofItmightbethatpbySattistrueiff
itispossiblethatpforSatt(p.26).
3. PracticalReasoning
a. Thatonedoesnotknowalotterypropositionseemsto
prohibitonefromusingitasapremiseinonesdeliberations
abouthowtoact(p.29).
b. Considerthefollowinglineofreasoning:
Theticketisaloser.
SoifIkeeptheticketIwillgetnothing.
ButifIselltheticketIwillgetapenny.
SoIdbetterselltheticket.
c. suchreasoningisunacceptable(p.29).
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d. Whyissuchreasoningunacceptable?Folkswillrespond
bypointingoutthatthefirstpremisewasnotknowntobe
true(pp.2930).
e. :oneoughtonlytousethatwhichoneknowsasa
premiseinonesdeliberations(p.30).
1.4:EpistemicClosure
MultiPremiseClosure(MPC):Necessarily,ifSknowsthatp1,,pn,
competentlydeducesq(fromp1,,pn),andtherebycomestobelievethat
q,whileretainingknowledgeofp1,,pnthroughout,thenSknowsthatq.
SinglePremiseClosure(SPC):Necessarily,ifSknowsthatp,competently
deducesq(fromp),andtherebycomestobelievethatq,whileretaining
knowledgeofpthroughout,thenSknowsthatq.
somethinginthevicinityoftheaboveclosureprinciplesiscorrect(p.
35).
1.5:DenyingSinglePremiseClosure
TheintuitiveconsequencesofdenyingSinglePremiseClosureseemtobe
extremelyhigh(p.38).
1. adenialofclosureinteractsdisastrouslywiththethesisthat
knowledgeisthenormofassertion.Thepremisesofamodus
ponensargument[e.g.,theBIVskepticalargument,orthecleverly
paintedmuleskepticalargument]arestablyadheredto,andyet
theconclusionstablyrepudiated(p.39).
2. InrelinquishingSPC,weareforcedtorelinquishcertainother
principlesAdditionClosureandDistribution(orinstead,
Equivalence)thatareverycompelling(p.41).
3. Letpbeaheavyweightpropositionjustincaseweallhavesome
stronginclinationtosaythatpisneitherthesortofthingthatone
canknowbytheexerciseofreasonalonenorbytheuseofones
perceptualfaculties(evenaidedbyreason)(p.42).Butwhilethe
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viewsofsomewhodenyclosureareintendedtoalign
[themselves]withourinstinctiveverdictsaboutwhetwecanand
cannotknowbyperception[theydraw]thecancannotlineina
verydifferentplace(p.46).Forexample,Ihaveconclusive
reasonsforbelievingthat(Ihaveaheadacheanditisnotthecase
thatIamabraininavat).Butthisseemstobeaheavyweight
proposition.
1.6:MultiPremiseClosure
Theclaimhereisthatwehavereasontobelievethat(somethinginthe
vicinityof)MPCistrue.
1. Kyburgscase:Thecasedependsontheviewthatknowledgeis
reasonabletruebelief,butthatviewisunpromising.
2. Riskoffalsityaccrues:But[i]ftherebeingariskthatnotpamountsto
therebeingachancethatnotp,thenknowingpisnotcompatiblewith
therebeinganyriskatallthatnotp(p.48).So,wedfailtoknow
(someof)thepremisesinthiscase.
3. TheAPACase:itseemsasifthesettinginwhichoneascribes
knowledgeoftheindividualpropositionstomeisasettinginwhich
(giventhatIhavededucedandcometobelievetheconjunction)oneis
willingtoascribeknowledgetomeoftheconjunction(p.49).
4. Misleadingevidenceagainstthetruthofsomepremise:Inthiscase,
Hawthornemaintainsthatwemightnotwanttoabandonourclaimto
knowanyoneofthepremises,butthatitwouldstillbeperfectly
understandableifIwasnotinclinedtobelievetheconjunction.But
thatfacthardlymakestroubleforMPC(p.50).Why?Becausea
conjunctintheantecedentofMPCnamely,and[S]therebycomesto
believethatqisfalse.
5. Believingthatyoudontknowtheconjunction:Herownbeliefthat
knowledgeisabsentexplainswellenoughthedubiousstatusofthe
assertionTheconjunctionistrueinhermouth,withoutautomatically
impugningMPC(p.50),sincebelievingthatonedoesntknowthatp
iscompatiblewithknowingthatp.