6/9/2015 Global Strategic Foresight Community - Reports - World Economic Forum

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Global Strategic Foresight Community

CONTENTS
Security and Governance

Rethinking Our Approach to Global Security

Responding Effectively to the Challenges Posed by Increased
Radicalization of Religion and Nationalism

Stefanie Babst, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Todays geopolitical landscape is increasingly characterized by religious and nationalistic radicalism that
threatens global peace and stability. While this extremism at times involves countries as traditional actors
in the international political realm, it is also marked by the rise of non-state actors whose actions cut
across national borders. In addition to their genuinely radical beliefs, such actors have instrumentalized
religious and nationalistic beliefs as pretexts to obfuscate deeper drivers of conflict, such as economic
recession, resource scarcity, social change and political conflict. Responding to the threat posed by
these trends in radicalization will require comprehensive solutions that aim towards both developing a
deeper understanding of the root causes of the emergence of radicalized groups and their strategies and
tactics, as well as putting a premium on the holistic engagement of all actors across society.

In a 1993 Foreign Affairs article, Samuel Huntington, the late American political Share this page:

scientist, predicted a clash of civilizations. His thesis was that, with the end of the
19 21
Cold War ideological contest between communism and capitalism, a new form of
geopolitical competition was beginning to emerge that would pit states from one
12 0
civilization against another for regional and, by implication, global supremacy. In
this context, culture and religion, along with ethnic nationalism, would become the
major axes of international political conflict. Back in the mid-1990s, Huntingtons
critics often vehemently disagreed; civilizational conflict was simply not on the Author
cards, they said. Only a short 20 years later, though, the state of world affairs gives
reason to believe that Huntington was not so far off the mark. In Europe, the
Middle East, Asia and Africa, rival faith groups, terrorist cells and other radical
non-state actors are not only challenging the existing political systems, but
also the territorial integrity of states. In particular, the rise of Islamic
radicalism has far-reaching implications for global peace and security.

The impact of increasing religious radicalization can be seen today in places such Stefanie Babst
as Turkey, long thought of as a stable, pro-Western Muslim democracy, but which Head, Strategic Analysis
now finds itself split between secularism and religion as never before. In Africa, the Capability of the North Atlantic
borderlands between the continents Muslim, Arab north and the black Christians Treaty Organization (NATO)
of Sub-Saharan Africa have become an ungovernable, violent space. There is now Secretary-General and
even conflict between Buddhists and Muslims in South-East Asia, an area of the Chairman of the NATO Military
world not generally known for conflict of this type. Most worrisome, an old religious Committee, NATO
divide is helping to fuel a resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East. Struggles
between Sunni and Shia forces have fed a Syrian civil war that threatens to

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6/9/2015 Global Strategic Foresight Community - Reports - World Economic Forum
transform the map of the entire Middle East, fracture Iraq and widen fissures in and Disclaimer
between Gulf countries. Growing sectarian clashes have also sparked a revival of All opinions expressed herein are those
transnational jihadist networks that pose a threat far beyond the region. of the authors. The World Economic
Forum provides an independent and
impartial platform dedicated to
generating debate around the key
topics that shape global, regional and
It is important to understand that the current conflicts are not only about religious industry agendas.

supremacy. Often religion can be a pretext rather than the source of conflict and a
tool to motivate popular support in response to other grievances. Strategic drivers Highlight
such as economic recession, resource scarcity, social change and political conflict
have exacerbated the dynamics of sectarian conflicts and suggest inter-faith and Rethinking our approach to
intra-faith conflicts could increase in coming years, with profound implications for the challenge posed by the
others. For example, growing Muslim populations in Europe have already begun to radicalization of religion and
affect European security in a variety of ways: from changes in voting patterns and nationalism
military recruitment, to the proliferation of Islamist groups espousing goals
antithetical to Western values and interests, to the development of no-go zones in
cities where traditional Islamic law is replacing Western law.

However, not only the role of radicalized Islam but of radicalized nationalism, too,
will likely become more prominent in the future. In East Asia, nationalist sentiments
have grown significantly stronger, resulting in territorial claims and political
tensions between regional states. Another example is the Russian Federation,
where the leadership has embarked on a propagandistic patriotic surge, claiming
the right to protect Russian-speaking compatriots in former Soviet territories.
Russian nationalism has already demonstrated its destabilizing influence on its
immediate neighbours Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, all of which have large
concentrations of ethnic Russians. In a growing number of European countries,
radicalized nationalist parties have also come to the fore, openly targeting migrant
communities as well as ethnic and religious minorities.

It is obvious that traditional law enforcement techniques are insufficient to deal with
the origins of and evolving trends in religious and nationalistic radicalization. A
broader approach is required to prevent and counter this trend. It should aim at
developing a deeper understanding of the root causes of the emergence of
radicalized groups in our societies and of their strategies and tactics. The millions
of non-radicalized Muslims need to be encouraged through dialogue, practical
cooperation and economic support, while avoiding the notion that we want to
overturn their belief system.

Approaching the radicalization issue in a comprehensive manner can assist us as a

global community in developing initiatives that help reduce the attractiveness of
radicalized ideas and promote tolerance and integration. A comprehensive
approach for responding to trends in radicalization must not only engage society. It
must also engage national governments, international organizations and the civil
and private sectors alike in a truly global and comprehensive way. NATO and the
European Union, for example, have already begun jointly discussing the threats
posed by militant Islamist groups in our countries, and they will continue to do so
in the future. Likewise, the European Union, supports its Member States with
counter-radicalization projects, for example in the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany
and Denmark, aimed at encouraging local Muslim communities in these countries
to help prevent young people from joining radical groups. These, and many more
opportunities we might consider, should be explored to generate multi-actor
solutions for this multidimensional challenge.

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6/9/2015 Global Strategic Foresight Community - Reports - World Economic Forum

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