Integrated Assessment

Model for Northeast Asia

Mikiko Kainuma
AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) team
National Institute for Environmental Studies
1st Regional Consultation Meeting on
Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth
Strategies in Northeast Asia
9-10 March 2010
Shilla Hotel
Seoul, Republic of Korea (ROK) 1
Overview of integrated  Integrated 
assessment model assessment
(Emission/Climate/Impacts)
GHG Emissions

Energy‐economic model

Global GHG emission path Impact/ National/ Sector‐wise impacts

Adaptation
Pattern  Climate  Potential 
impact 
scaling  Scenario  estimation 
Simple climate model module by country module

Climate change Impact  Adaptation
GCM results Response Function
GMTI
 Outline of Impact Assessment 
with IAM model
 Equilibrium climate sensitivity: 3ºC
 The carbon feedback effect is not taken into 
consideration
 GCM used for preparation of climate scenarios 
(pattern scaling) by region from global mean 
temperature changes: MIROC3.2‐hires
 The impacts of global warming are the increment
when 1981‐2000 (or 1990) is taken the base period or 
year
 Without considering adaptation to climate change
3
 Outline of Stabilization Scenarios 
 Including GHGs and cooling effects of aerosol
 Overshooting of GHG concentrations occurs (450s, 550s)
 450s: 450 ppm GHG concentration (CO2 equivalent 
concentration) stabilization scenario
 Equilibrium temperature increase of approx. 2.1ºC  (compared with 
pre industrial period)
 550s: 550 ppm GHG concentration (CO2 equivalent 
concentration) stabilization scenario
 Equilibrium temperature increase of approx. 2.9ºC  (compared with 
pre industrial period; approx. 2.7ºC in 2100 in the present analysis)
 BaU (Business as Usual scenario)
 Temperature increase of approx. 3.8ºC  in 2100 (compared with pre 
industrial period) 
 Corresponding to IPCC SRES B2
 Global GHG Emissions (Six Types of Greenhouse Gases Established 
under the Kyoto Protocol), GHG Concentration, Global Mean 
Temperature Increase, and Sea Level Rise by Scenario
20

GHG concentrasion (ppm‐CO2eq)
900
Kyoto‐gas emissions (GtCeq/yr)

15 GHG Con.
Kyoto‐Gas Emi. 700
10

5
500
0

‐5 300
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Year Year
Global mean temperature increase

3.5 0.30

Sea Level rise (m, 1990=0)
3.0 0.25
2.5
GMTI SRL
(℃，1990=0)

0.20
2.0
0.15
1.5
1.0 0.10

0.5 0.05
0.0 0.00
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
When converting in comparison with  Year
Year
prior to the industrial revolution: +0.5℃ 450S 550S BaU
Change of potential crop 
0       2 3         4        5       6  (t/ha)
productivity (rice)
Precipitation 50% Precipitation 100% Precipitation 200%

Temperature 
+0ºC

Temperature 
+3ºC

Temperature 
+6ºC

Temperature 
+9ºC
Climate Change Impacts by Scenarios
Flood Area
Affected Area due to Storm- 1.0 BaU
Surge Flooding ( Japan's Slope Collapse
three major bays)
Affected Area due to Storm-
0.5
Surge Flooding ( Western Sandy Beach Loss
Japan)

Affected Population due to 0.0

Heat Stress
Storm- Surge Flooding (
Mortality Risk
Japan's three major bays)

Affected Population due to

Storm- Surge Flooding Rice Yield
( Western Japan)
Loss of Suitable Habitats for
Risk of Pine Wilt
F. crenata Forests

高潮浸水面積
高潮浸水面積
（三大湾）
2020s
洪水氾濫面積
1 .0
0 .5
土砂災害リスク 2030s 2040s 2050s
砂浜喪失面積
高潮浸水被害
（西日本） 熱ストレス　　
0 .0
人口（三大湾）
高潮浸水被害 死亡リスク

2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s

コメ収量
人口（西日本）
マツ枯れ危険域 ブナ適域喪失

http://www.nies.go.jp/s4_impact/seika.html
 Climate Change Impacts by Scenarios
Flood Area
Affected Area due to Storm- 1.0 550s
Surge Flooding ( Japan's Slope Collapse
three major bays)
Affected Area due to Storm-
0.5
Surge Flooding ( Western Sandy Beach Loss
Japan)

Affected Population due to 0.0

Heat Stress
Storm- Surge Flooding (
Mortality Risk
Japan's three major bays)

Affected Population due to

Storm- Surge Flooding Rice Yield
( Western Japan)
Loss of Suitable Habitats for
Risk of Pine Wilt
F. crenata Forests
高潮浸水面積
高潮浸水面積
（三大湾）
2020s
洪水氾濫面積
1 .0
0 .5
土砂災害リスク 2030s 2040s 2050s
砂浜喪失面積
高潮浸水被害
（西日本） 熱ストレス　　
0 .0
人口（三大湾）
高潮浸水被害 死亡リスク

2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s

コメ収量
人口（西日本）
マツ枯れ危険域 ブナ適域喪失

http://www.nies.go.jp/s4_impact/seika.html
Climate Change Impacts by Scenarios
Flood Area
Affected Area due to Storm- 1.0 450s
Surge Flooding ( Japan's Slope Collapse
three major bays)
Affected Area due to Storm-
0.5
Surge Flooding ( Western Sandy Beach Loss
Japan)

Affected Population due to 0.0

Heat Stress
Storm- Surge Flooding (
Mortality Risk
Japan's three major bays)

Affected Population due to

Storm- Surge Flooding Rice Yield
( Western Japan)
Loss of Suitable Habitats for
Risk of Pine Wilt
F. crenata Forests
高潮浸水面積
高潮浸水面積
（三大湾）
2020s
洪水氾濫面積
1 .0
0 .5
土砂災害リスク 2030s 2040s 2050s
砂浜喪失面積
高潮浸水被害
（西日本） 熱ストレス　　
0 .0
人口（三大湾）
高潮浸水被害 死亡リスク

2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s

コメ収量
人口（西日本）
マツ枯れ危険域 ブナ適域喪失

http://www.nies.go.jp/s4_impact/seika.html
 Asian Modeling Exercise  550s
AIM/CGE [Global]
CO2 CO2/GDP
35000 3

30000
2.5

25000
China (Baseline) $
S 2
China (550 CO2‐e) U
 
2 20000 n
O io
ll
‐C Japan (Baseline) i 1.5
t /b
2
M15000
Japan (550 CO2‐e) O
C
‐t 1
10000 Korea (Baseline) M

5000 Korea (550 CO2‐e) 0.5

0
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

2020
TPES/GDP TPES/GDP CO2/GDP CO2
0.035  (EJ/billion US$) (Mt‐CO2/billion US$) (Mt‐CO2)
0.03
550 CO2‐e From 2005 level 550 CO2‐e From 2005 level 550 CO2‐e From 2005 level
China 0.018 52% 1.657 60% 7878 170%
0.025 Japan 0.004 82% 0.236 66% 1065 70%
$
S Korea 0.014 74% 0.876 78% 764 137%
U
  0.02
n
io
lli 2050
/b
0.015
JE
TPES/GDP CO2/GDP CO2
0.01
 (EJ/billion US$) (Mt‐CO2/billion US$) (Mt‐CO2)
0.005 550 CO2‐e From 2005 level 550 CO2‐e From 2005 level 550 CO2‐e From 2005 level
China 0.008 24% 0.790 29% 18016 389%
0
Japan 0.003 60% 0.150 42% 726 48%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Korea 0.011 56% 0.547 49% 648 116%

Do not quote
 Technological change in Power generation
Baseline case 550ppmCO2eq case
Japan Japan
1.4  1.4 
Other Renewables Other Renewables
1.2  Hydro 1.2 
Hydro
1.0  1.0 
0.8  Nuclear 0.8  Nuclear

PWh
PWh

0.6  0.6  Gas‐Combined Cycle

Gas‐Conventional Gas‐Combined Cycle Gas
0.4  0.4  Oil
Oil
0.2 
Coal‐IGCC 0.2  Coal‐IGCC
Coal‐Efficient Coal Coal‐Efficient
Coal‐Conventional
0.0  0.0 
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0.7  Korea 0.7  Korea

Other Renewables Other Renewables
0.6  0.6 
0.5  0.5 
0.4 
Nuclea 0.4 
Nuclea
PWh

PWh
r r
0.3  0.3 
Gas‐Combined Cycle
0.2  Gas Gas‐Combined Cycle 0.2  Gas
Coal‐IGCC Coal‐IGCC
0.1  Coal‐Efficient 0.1  Coal‐Efficient
Coal Coal
0.0  0.0 
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Do not quote
 Technological change in Power generation

Baseline case 550ppmCO2eq case

China China
10.0  9.0 
Other Renewables
Gas 8.0  Other Renewables
8.0  7.0 
Nuclear Hydro 6.0  Nuclea
6.0 
5.0  r Hydro
PWh

PWh
Coal‐IGCC
4.0  4.0 
Gas‐Combined Cycle
3.0 
Coal‐Efficient Coal‐Efficient Coal‐IGCC
2.0  2.0 
Coal‐Conventional 1.0 
0.0  Coal‐Conventional
0.0 
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Do not quote
 To analyze 450s scenario in detail, we
have used backcast methodology.
Technology development,
socio-economic change Forecasting Reference
projected by historically future
trend world
Mitigation

Required intervention
Technology
3. We need Required development
Environmental pressure

Policy
“Trend Breaks” intervention and
to realize visions Investment
Service demand
change
by changing social

Long-term target year

required behavior, lifestyles
intervention policy and institutions 2. We need
and measures Back-casting “Visions”
Normative
year(2025)
year(2015)

1.Target may
Checking

Checking

target world
be tough
50% reductions
2000 2020 2050 In the world
Models for analyzing low-carbon society and sustainable development
Water Energy supply & demand Stock Activity Macro
economic
supply &demand
Population and

management model model

Household Prd.
Health household model

Building dynamics model

Residential GHG GHG & lifestyle model Preference GHG
effect of household
sector Residential energy
Water Air service model
Air Air
leakag pollutant pollutant pollutant
e management Building dynamics
Commercial energy
Commercial Waste
sector Water
pollutant model
service model Investment

database
Efficiency

model
Material stock & flow model
and flow model
Stock

Material stock
Service

Strategic database
model
Production amount
Water Water

model

CGE model
Industrial Industrial
Enduse Enduse

CGE
production model

Strategic
sector

Population, Labor
Passenger Trns.
Transpor
tation
Transportation
demand model Demand
Freight Trns.
sector model
demand model

Energy
Energy
Supply
model

Trns.
sector
Energy supply
Population
model and
Air household
pollutant model
GHG Waste

Air
pollutant
Enduse[Air] Backcast model
Backcasting model
AIM/Air

GHG
：Model
model Energy
：Output of model Energy
Energysnapshot
snapshot

：Data flow
Tool of making balance
tool energy balance
table table
 Steps towards Japan LCS
Scenarios

Outcome 1) Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission

reduction by 2050 below 1990 level
Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of each options
should be introduced in order to achieve the goal”

Outcome 2) Roadmap and Dozen Actions toward LCS

15
2009
/04/
 Visions
we prepared two different
but likely future societies for Japan
Vision A Vision B
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented
Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Technology breakthrough Self-sufficient
Centralized production Produce locally, consume
/recycle locally
Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values
2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi
Imagawa
 Item to be considered…
Industry 1. Changes in industrial structure and technological development on energy
i) Industrial
consumption asstructure
well as productivity
Domestic and 2. Changes in building distribution by climatic zone
Commercial 3.ii) Changes
Dwellings
of the share of detached and multi-dwelling houses
4. Diffusion rate of insulated detached and multi-dwelling houses
5. Lifetime changes of the dwellings
iii) Lifestyle
6. Lifestyle changes on household consumption and allocation of the time
Transportation 7. Changes in population distribution and local characteristics
8. Changes in social environment and human activities
iv) Passenger transportation
9. Changes in selectivity of the mode of passenger transportation by area
10. Changes industrial structure
11. Dematerialization
v) Changes
12. Freightin transportation
producing /consuming area
13. Changes in selectivity of the mode of transportation by distance
Energy supply 14. Function of load management and uncertainties of both energy supply
and demand
vi)Combination
15. Energy Supply
of small(Electricity/Renewables/Hydrogen
consumer and small energy sources + etc)
Electricity/Hydrogen
16. Feasibility of local production for local consumption
Social system 17. Relationship between economic activities and stock/flow of the materials
vii)Amount
18. Material stock/flow
of waste derived from the stock
19. Effectiveness of recycling and its impacts
Cross- 20. Ensuring consistency among the sectors in terms of energy demand
viii) Consistency of energy balance
sectional 21. Impacts of future technological choices on social energy efficiency
ix)Ensuring
22. Economic consistency
economical consistency of LCSs
We prepared models to quantify the LCSs

Time
frame
Snap
Shot
Model

Environmental Option Database (EDB)

Stores information of activities which accompany or reduce GHG emissions.
18
 Steps towards Japan LCS Scenarios

Snapshot
models

Transition
models

Outcome 1) Feasibility study for 70% CO2

emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level Backcast
model
Investigating “When and Which options and How
much” of each options should be introduced in order
to achieve the goal”

Outcome 2) Roadmap and Dozen Actions toward LCS

19
2009
/04/
Japan: World Front Runner of Aged Society
What will Japan's population be in 2050?

Age Age

>85 >85
80-84 80-84 Vision A
70-74 70-74 Male
60-64 60-64 Female
50-54 50-54
Vision B
40-44 40-44 Male
30-34 30-34
Female
20-24 20-24
10-14 10-14
0-4 0-4
4,000 0 4,000 4,000 0 4,000

Male (103) Female (103) Male (103) Female(103)

In 2000 In 2050
 Visions and LCS house in 2050
Utilizing solar power
Innovations Comfortable and
energy-saving house
Photovoltaic Eco-life education
34-69MW 10-20% energy
rooftop
(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%))demand reduction
and develop high efficiency (<30%) PV gardening
High efficiency
lighting
Solar heating 【eg LED lighting】

Diffusion rate: 20-60% Reduce 1/2

（currently 8%） energy demand
Share 100%
Monitoring system
equipped with appliances
High-insulation
Reduce 60% warming
Super high energy demand,
efficiency air share 100%
conditioner
COP (coefficients of Fuel cell
performance=8), Heat-pump heating share 0-20%
share 100%
COP＝5
Stand-by energy share 30-70%
reduction Good information for
economy and environment High efficiency appliances
Reduce 1/3 energy
demand, makes people’s behavior reduce energy demand and
share 100%
low-carbon support comfortable and safe lifestyle 5
 Residential sector Innovations
Energy reduction potential: 40-50%
70 Change of the numbers
of households
Change of service
60 demand per household
3 3 4 4 Change of service
Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

demand per household

50 9
Hi-Insulated housing
12 Improvement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
40
23 H2 consumption
30
Energy Effiency
17
Solar consumption

20 Biomass consumption

Gas consumption
10
Oil consumption

0 Energy consumption in
2000 2050A 2050B 2000

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B
Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household
Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS)
Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power
 Land-use planning and transportation
Reduction strategy depend on local specification
Passenger Transport
CO2/cap [t/year] Technological &
2.00
behavioral
countermeasures
1.50
2000年
1.00
Depopulation & shift
2050年
from rural to urban
Metro rural

Provincial
Provincial
0.50 Metropolit urban

rural
an urban
0.00
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Cumulative population (10,000persons)

CO2 Emission
Per Capita Transportation

Matsuhashi et al.
 Vision for 2050: Passenger transportation
Metro Metro Provincial Provincial Total
Urban Suburb Urban Rural
Compact △ ○ △ ○ Compact 112- >33Mt
neighborhood Rehabilitation Rehabilitation Rehabilitation Settlement
To 1990
Compact city △ City center △ Withdrawal △ City center × - 70%
renewal renewal
Including
Enhance △ Pricing △ Park & ○ LRT △ van pool, (Inter- city
public transit Ride etc. shared taxi Passenger：
30km- )
Improve load △ Utilize small vehicles △ Enhance ×
efficiency sharing
Index:
Improve fuel ◎ Urban ○ local mode ◎ : - 30%
consumption mode ○ : - 20%
△ : - 10%
Low carbon △ less room ○ biofuel, Low Carbon Electricity for EV
× : no room
energy for improve and PHEV etc.

pop(million) 46→ 40 15→ 12 27→ 20 35→ 23 124→ 94

t- CO2/capita 0.66→ 0.27 0.94→ 0.35 1.03→ 0.38 1.11→ 0.51 0.90→ 0.35
70% reduction by 2050
Matsuhashi et al.
Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of
CO2 emissions
Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Residential Trans. Prv.

2000(Actual) Industrial
Commercial Trans. Frg.

2050(Scenario A) 40-45% energy demand

reduces by structural
Decrease of
change of demand,
and efficiency
energy demand
2050(Scenario B) improvement

Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.

Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight)
Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:
Industry：structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 20-40％
Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80％
Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 60-70％
Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 50％
Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40％
 Changes in composition of energy supply

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

100 200 300 400 500 600

2000(Actural) Coal Oil Gas

2050(Scenario A) Nuclear

2050(Scenario B) Biomass Solar and Wind

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind

 Required improvement in rate of carbon and
energy intensity to achieve low carbon society
by 2050
Energy intensity Carbon intensity (w/o CCS) Carbon intensity (CCS)

Historical trend
1.25 0.65
(1960-2000)
Japan Scenario A 2.36 0.78 0.53
Japan Scenario B 1.70 1.41
U.K. 2.79 0.85 0.61
France 1.72 1.62 0.68

Germany 2.38 1.26 0.45

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity (%/yr)

Chinese Energy efficiency improvement:

4.3%/year as of target by 2010, 1.6%/year in 2006, 3.7% in 2007
 Steps towards Japan LCS
Scenarios

Outcome 1) Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission

reduction by 2050 below 1990 level
Investigating “When and Which options and How
much” of each options should be introduced in order
to achieve the goal”
Outcome 2) Roadmap and Dozen Actions toward LCS
28
2009
/04/
 How to depict LCS roadmaps?
・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per 
household, Increase of office floor (increase)
Change of activity ・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, 
Change 
of activity Increase of public transportation (decrease)
6
of demand

Reduction of 
Reduction 

6 1
service demand ・Farm products produced and consumed in season 

Industry
21 24
Improvement of
10 energy intensity
Energy demand sector

Improvement of  Improvement of  Improvement of 

carbon intensity  carbon intensity  energy intensity 

13 Improvement of
carbon intensity ・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas
of end‐use

90 38
・Insulation
Residential & 

Reduction of 
commercial
service demand ・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)
9
・Efficient heat pump air‐conditioner, Efficient water heater,  
70% reduction

7 Improvement of
energy intensity Efficient lighting equipment
of end‐use

28
Improvement of ・Development and widespread use of fuel cell
2000 CO2 Emission
1990 CO2 Emission

36
17
carbon intensity ・All‐electric house
・Photovoltaic
Transportation
Energy supply sector

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function
of energy supply

41 Reduction of 
77
service demand ・Modal shift to public transportation service
Improvement of ・Widespread use of motor‐driven vehicle such as
36 energy intensity electric vehicle and fuel‐cell electric vehicle
CCS
Improvement of ・High efficiency freight vehicle
Energy supply

carbon intensity ・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

2050 CO2 Emission

・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as 
natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
Improvement of
carbon intensity ・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage
・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
Carbon Capture ・Power generation without CO2 emission
Storage ・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

Target Vision in 2050 Backcast Model

Narrative Roadmaps Roadmaps

29
2009
/04/

A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies
Residential/commercial sector actions
1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built
environment design. Intelligent buildings.
2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances
Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances.
Initial cost reduction by rent and release system
resulting in improved availability.
Industrial sector actions
3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local
foods for local cuisine
4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and
renewable buildings materials and products.
5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and
Industry Businesses aiming at creating and
operating in low carbon market. Supplying low
carbon and high value-added goods and services
through energy efficient production systems.
Transportation sector actions
6. Swift and Smooth Logistics
Networking seamless logistics systems with
supply chain management, using both
transportation and ICT infrastructure
Press release
on May 22, 2008
7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design
City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and
bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient
public transport
Energy supply sector actions
8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon
electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power
and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants
9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand
Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind,
biomass and others.
10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon
free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply
system with required infrastructure
Cross-sector actions
11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices
Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information
for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by
consumers, and public acknowledgement of such
consumers
12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource
development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and
recognizing extraordinary contributions.
 Identification of necessary actions
Step
Stepby
bystep
stepstrategies
strategies
Diffusion of green
design building
Relatively high cost compared Lack in knowledge of regional
to general building specific climatic conditions

Incentives to the higher Organizing training

performance building classes and events

Lack in information of environmental

performance of the building

Certification & registration Direct options

of labeling Indirect options

Lack in personnel Barrier breaking

Too complicated
calculation required who can implement
the calculation
Establishment of
dissemination of
simplified evaluation
diagnosis practitioners
method
2009
31
/04/
CO2 emission projections based on a A Dozen Actions
dozen actions toward 70% reduction
1. Comfortable and Green Built
Residential/ Environment
commercial 2. Anytime, Anywhere
Appropriate Appliances
3. Promoting Seasonal Local
Industrial Food
-15% to 1990 4. Sustainable Building Materials
5. Environmentally Enlightened
Business and Industry
-70% to 1990 Transportation 6. Swift and Smooth Logistics
7. Pedestrian Friendly City
Design
8. Low-Carbon Electricity
Energy 9. Local Renewable Resources
supply for Local Demand
10. Next Generation Fuels
11. Labeling to Encourage Smart
and Rational Choices
Cross-sector
12. Low-Carbon Society
Leadership
 8
Early Investment Scenario A
6 can reduce cost and
enhance energy efficiency
Additional investment [Tril. JPY]

4
of countermeasures
2

‐2 Ene: Fuel saving
Ene: Additional fixed investment
Trp: Fuel saving
‐4 Trp: Additional fixed investment
Ind: Fuel saving and gain multi-benefits
Ind: Additional fixed investment
‐6 Res: Fuel saving e.g. energy security
Res: Additional fixed investment
Total business power
‐8 comfortable live space
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
walkable city, happy life!
33
 Asian LCS scenarios study
Developed 
High Energy 
GHG emissions per capita

Countries
Locked‐in Type 
Development

With High 
Damage on 
Developing  Economy and 
Countries Leapfrog‐ Low  Natural System
development Carbon 
World
Time
Modeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia
We have just started new research project “Asian Low-Carbon Society
Scenario Development Study” (project leader: Mikiko Kainuma) during
FY2009-2013, funded by Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ
 Why should we follow to the
inefficient development
pattern?

Leap-frog
Japan
China？
India？

Is Asia in the best position to leapfrog to LCS, or too late?

From Jose Goldenberg (Blue Plant Prize Winner 2008)

Future Works (including ongoing works) : Depicting 
visions and bringing together policy instruments
Vision, target
Model Development Model Application
-Transform
- Linkage of the bottom-up - Costs to implement policies ation
and top-down approach pathways
- Economic impacts of
- Detailed expression of land policies - Policy
use packages
- Analysis of barriers to
- Down scaling to remove
develop and disseminate
barriers
- Representation of technology technologies
and to
diffusion
enhance
mitigation
Data & Information
- Technology - Demography - Policies (city - Socio-economic
(efficiency, cost, etc.) planning, carbon principles
- Resources (potential, - Social system
tax, regulations, - Value, behavior,
availability, costs, - Energy system
etc.) culture
etc.) - Land use
- Investments - Religion
- Learning curve - Water resources
- Cost curve - barriers
 Steps towards low-carbon society

15th AIM International Workshop at Tsukuba

20-22 February 2010