China’s Climate Change Mitigation: Assessment of Policies

and Roadmap

Kejun JIANG
Kjiang@eri.org.cn

Energy Research Institute, China

1
ERI, China
 Energy consumption by fuels(1957-2008)

2500

2000

Hydro-power
1500
Natural Gas
Mtoe

Crude Oil
1000
Coal

500

Year

2
 3

2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Energy Consumption per unit of GDP
GJ/1000Yuan, 2000 constant price

1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
Year
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1978
5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
 Index of industry products in China, 1975-2004

60
Chemical Fiber
50
Paper
Index, 1978=1

40 Coal
Crude Oil
30 Natural Gas
Electricity
20 Steel Products
Cement
10 Plastics
Machine Tools
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Motor Vehicle

Year

4
 CO2 Emission in China, 1990-2005

6000
5000
Milliton t-CO2

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Year

5
 What is happening now on policy

• Negotiation in COPs, Copenhagen and after that

• 12th Five Year Plan on Energy, Climate change
• Low Carbon Development Planning and Strategy
• National long-term energy plan

6
7
Recent Progress on climate change in China

In August 12, Wen Jiabao hosted state council meeting,

announced China will promote green economy
development with focus on low carbon industries, and
China should put low carbon development into national
strategy
In Sep.22, Hu Jintao gave speech at UN to emphase China’s
action on Climate Change:

- Significant reduction on carbon intensity between 2005

and 2020
- Non-fossil fuel share in primary energy by 15% in 2020
- 40million hector of forest increase
- Develop green economy, low carbon economy and
circulating economy, develop low carbon technology 8
Recent Progress on climate change in China

In Nov.1, 2009, Wen Jiabao said six points for next step
China will do:

- Put climate change into China’s national economy and

social development plan
- Further implementation of national climate change
program, in 12th Five Year Plan period
- Promote green economy
- Enhance comprehensive capacity building on climate
change
- Establish law and regulation system on climate change
- Actively promote international collaboration

9
 Chinese targets in Copenhagen

• Carbon Intensity reduction of 40% to 45% from 2005 to

2020
• Non-Fossil fuel accounts for 15% in TPE in 2020

10
 Domestic climate change strategy

• What is the targets of GHG in China? Short-term and long-

term?
• Key policies and countermeasures for low carbon future
• Long-term Energy and emission pathways?
• Economy development pattern?
• Technology R&D strategy? What kind of technologies?
• Near-term action and policies? Cost and benefit of these
near-term policies?

11
 Using modeling tools

• Scenarios: pathways, targets (intensity and absolute)

• Cost analysis: wide range of cost analysis
• Multi-development targets analysis
• Benefit analysis by taking low carbon economy
• Co-benefit analysis (GHGs, local pollutions, water
pollutions, and others)
• Integrated analysis

12
 Barriers

• Lack of well understanding on Low carbon development

even though many talking about low carbon
• Still weak on low carbon technologies
• Not yet in priority from policy making process
• Lack of investment on low carbon
• High cost so far
• Lack of good practices
• Lack of wide public awareness
• Lack of various data on carbon emissions in multi-level
process

13
 What we are doing

• Low carbon scenario up to 2050 for China

• Technology roadmap up to 2050
• Policy roadmap for deep cut in 2050
• Political roadmap for Climate change in China and the
world
• Low carbon development for cities and provinces (more
than 10 cities and provinces)
• Cost and benefit analysis
• Technology solution

14
 CO2 Emission in China
4000 
3500 
3000 
2500 
Baseline
Mt‐C

2000 
Policy
1500 
ELC
1000 
500 
0 
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

15
 No. Sector Technology Description Note
1 Industry High energy High efficiency furnace, Nearly in
technology efficiency kiln, waste heat recovery market

28 key technologies in the equipment system,

process
high efficiency
technologies,
advanced electric motor

enhanced low carbon 2 New manufacture

process technology
for cement and steel
scenario in China 3 CCS In cement, steel making,
refinery, ethylene
manufacture
4 Transport Super high efficiency Advanced diesel hybrid
diesel vehicle engine
5 Electric car
6 Fuel cell car
7 High efficiency 30% higher energy
aircraft efficiency
8 Bio‐fuel aircraft
9 Building Super high efficiency With COP>7
air‐conditioner
10 LED lighting
11 In house renewable Solar PV/Wind/Solar hot
energy system water and space heating
12 Heat pumps Mature
13 High isolation Mature
building
14 High efficiency Mature
electric appliance before 2030
15 Power IGCC/Poly‐ With efficiency above 55%
generation Generation
16 IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 60%
17 On shore Wind Mature
18 Off shore wind Mature
before 2020
19 Solar PV
20 Solar Thermal
21 4th Generation
Nuclear
22 Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65%
23 Biomass IGCC
24 CCS in power
generation
25 Alternative fuels Second generation
bio‐ethanol
26 Bio‐diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels
27 Grid Smart grid 16
28 Circulating Recycle, reuse,
tecnologies reducing material
use
Technology Roadmap

Ultra
performance
air-conditioni
ng
Popularization Rate: 100%

Advanced
Solar Water
heater/
heating
Popularization Rate: 45%, of all the suitable construction

17
Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner

• Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS

• Government Planning
• Subsidy

Start COP
9.0 
8.0 
7.0 
6.0 
5.0 
4.0 
3.0 
2.0 
1.0 
0.0 
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
18
 Investment in Energy Industry in China Energy Expenditures  in China
14000  300000 
12000 
BaU 250000 
10000 
HLC 200000  BaU
8000 

10^8Yuan
10^8Yuan

150000 
6000  HELC
HLC
100000 
4000  LLC
2000  50000  HELC
0  0 
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year Year

Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC GDP Loss, %
20000  6.00%
18000 
16000  5.00%
2010
14000 
12000  2020 4.00% 650ppm
10^8 Yuan

10000  2030 550ppm

8000  3.00%
2040 450ppm
6000 
4000  2050 2.00%
Per Capita
2000 
0  1.00% Carbon Intensity
Industry Transport Building Total 0.00%
Year 2010 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100
‐1.00%

19
Investment by industrial sectors
建筑业

工业分部门投资 自来水的生产和供应业
煤气的生产和供应业
蒸汽热水生产供应业

180000 电力生产供应业
其他工业
仪器仪表文化办公用机械
160000 电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业
交通运输设备制造业

140000 普通机械、专用设备制造业
金属制品业
有色金属
120000 黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
非金属矿物制品业

100000 橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业

亿元

化学纤维制造业
医药制造业
80000 化学原料及制品制造业
炼焦业

60000 石油加工
印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业
造纸及纸制品业
40000 木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业
服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造
纺织业
20000 烟草加工业
食品饮料加工、制造业

0 非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业

有色金属矿采选业
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 黑色金属矿采选业

年份 天然气开采业
石油
20
 A Snapshot of Selected China Energy Options Today:
Climate and Energy Security Impacts and Tradeoffs in 2025
Building
Positive Climate Efficiency
Bubble size corresponds to incremental energy provided or
avoided in 2025. The reference point is the “business as Characteristics
usual” mix in 2025. The horizontal axis includes Industry
Industry
sustainability as well as traditional aspects of sufficiency, Efficiency
Efficiency
reliability, and affordability. The vertical axis illustrates
lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity. Bubble placements are Vehicle Fuel
based on quantitative analysis and ERI expert judgment. Efficiency
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by Standard
comparing low energy scenario and BaU
Solar Wind
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by PV Biomass
comparing low energy scenario and policy BaU Power
Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand Nuclear
Nuclear Ultra-Super Critical Biodiesel Cellulosic
barrels of oil per day) by comparing low energy scenario Ethanol
and BaU
Hydro
Hydro
Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand Plug-In
barrels of oil per day) by comparing policy BaU scenario Liquefied Hybrids
and BaU Natural Gas (LNG) Clean Coal
Imports (IGCC) with CO2
Capture
CO2 -Enhanced Oil
Recovery

Reduce Corn Ethanol Oil Increase

Energy Business
As Usual
Imports
Energy
Security In 2025
Security

For specific details on the assumptions Gas-to-Liquids Expanded Domestic

Oil Production
underlying the options on this
chart, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoptions Coal-to-Liquids
(with carbon capture)
Coal-to-Liquids
Revised 7/10/2008 (no carbon
capture)

21
Negative Climate
Characteristics
 t-CO2
G

0
5
10
15
20
ua
ng
do
ng
Jia
ng
su
Sh
an
g ha
Ch i
on
gq
in
g
Ti
an
jin
Sh
Provinces an
x i
Sh
an
do
CO2 emission per capita, t-CO2

ng
G
ua
ng
xi
Ni
ng
xia
22
CO2 emission from energy activities in Guang Dong, mt-C

广东能源活动CO2排放量

300
250
200
百万吨碳

基准情景
150 政策情景
100 低碳情景

50
0
2005 2010 2020 2030
年份

23
 CO2 Emission in Beijing
60

50

40
BaU
Mt‐C

30
Policy
20
Low Carbon
10

0
2005 2010 2020 2030

24
 CO2 Emission from energy use: Jilin 
City
3000.0 

2500.0 

2000.0  BaU
10000t‐C

1500.0  Low Carbon
1000.0  Policy

500.0  Potential for CCS

0.0 
2006 2010 2020 2030

25
26
 Fixed Unit Ivestment

3000 1995
2500 2000
2005
2000
yuan/kW

2010
1500 2020
1000 2030
500 2050
0
International International China IGCC China SC China USC
IGCC IGCC-Fuel
Cell

27