ADB First Regional Consultation Meeting on Economics of Climate Change and

Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia

Vulnerability of the Korean Coast:

Shoreline Retreat due to Sea Level Rise

Kwangwoo Cho

2010. 3. 9.
 Presentation Outline

Introduction

Status: Korean coast

Change of coastal forcing

Coastal erosion assessment

Response direction

Conclusion
Introduction
Introduction - Sea-level Rise: Status

Sea-Level is rising and accelerating

Global sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm/yr over 1961 to 2003
and 3.1 mm/yr over 1993 over 2008.
Introduction - Sea-level Rise: Scenarios

Sea-Level Rise scenarios (IPCC AR4, 2007)

IPCC AR4
Introduction - Potential Sea-level rise

SLR uncertainty: Ice sheet dynamics

 59cm (IPCC AR4, 2007)
1.9m (Copenhagen, 2009)
:
???
(SLR Expert Symposium, 2010. 6, IPCC)
Area, volume and sea level equivalent of cryospheric components
Area Potential Sea Level Rise
Cryospheric Component Ice Volume
(106 km2) (SLE) (m)g

Snow on land (NH) 1.9-45.2 0.0005-0.005 0.001-0.01

Sea ice 19-27 0.019-0.025 ~0
Glacier and ice caps
Smallest estimatea 0.51 0.05 0.15
Largest estimateb 0.54 0.13 0.37
Ice shelvesc 1.5 0.7 ~0
Ice sheets 14.0 27.6 63.9
Greenlandd 1.7 2.9 7.3
Antarcticac 12.3 24.7 56.6
Seasonally frozen ground (NH)e 5.9-48.1 0.006-0.065 ~0
Permafrost (NH)f 22.8 0.011-0.037 0.03-0.10

IPCC AR4 (2007)

Introduction - Climate change and its pressure

CC : need a new paradigm in coastal management??

IPCC AR4(2007)
Introduction - Sea-level Rise and Its Impacts

Impacts of Sea-level Rise (IPCC, 1990)

 Inundation and displacement of lowlands and wetlands

 Coastal erosion
 Intensification of coastal storm flooding
 Increase in salinity of estuaries, salt water intrusion into
freshwater aquifers, and degradation of water quality
 Change of tide in rivers and bays
 Change of sediment deposition patterns
Status: Korean Coast
 Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea - Korean Coast (2006)

High Socioeconomic Activities !!!

- Coastal Population - Territorial Water - Rivers Directly-Outflowing into Ocean
 13 million  71,000km2  2,962 rivers
 27% of total population  71% of total land area

- Power Plants
 42 stations
: thermal(36), nuclear(6)
- Coastline
 11,914km - Dikes
 1,601 structures
- Tidal Mud Flat  1,193km
 2,550km2 - National fishing ports
 2.5% of total land area  105 sites
 56km2
- Oceanic Reclamation
 689 sites - National Harbor
 1,748km2  57 sites 108km seawall

- Aquaculture - Industrial Complexes

- Fishing crafts  68 sites
 1,247km2  91,608 ships  456,651km2
Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea - Korean Coast

Total Coastline: 11,914km

Sandy Coast : 802.52km (6.74%)

Sandy beach statistics

Jeollanam-do: 5,120km
 4.05% of sandy coast (28% of total sandy coast)
Gangwon-do
 38.48% in sandy coast (107.66km)
Tourism:
 346 beaches (2.2% of total coastline)
 107 million (2006)
Status: Coastal Erosion - Defining coastal erosion

Coastal Erosion is defined as the encroachment of

land by the sea and is measured by averaging over a
period.

Coastal erosion results in impacts such as

loss of land with economic value
destruction of a natural sea defense
undermining of artificial sea defense (leading to flood
risk)
Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea - Defining coastal erosion

Natural Change Coastal Process Human

Interference

Coastal Territory
Erosion Conservation

Biodiversity Socioeconomic
Utilization
Disaster
Prevention
Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea - Status of Coastal Erosion (MLTM, 2003)

Region
East South West
Total
Coast Coast Coast
Type

Total 178 25 89 64

Beach
35 20 10 5
Erosion
Dune
15 - - 15
Erosion
Land
92 3 52 37
Sliding
Seawall
36 2 27 7
Collapse

Beach erosion 35 places

Dune ersion 15 places

Land sliding 92 places

Seawall collapse 36 places

Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea - Coastal Erosion Monitoring (MLTM, 2009)

National monitoring site: 120 places

Level A (good) : 9 places

Level B (normal) : 57 places
Level C (bad) : 34 places
Level D (worse) : 20 places
Status: Coastal Erosion - Coastal erosion is widespread world wide

Sediment loss by the non-resilient development pathway

Eurosion (2004)
Sediment starvation (Stive et al, 2002)

Climate change (IPCC AR4, 2007)

SLR due to global warming (up to 59cm)
Wave, tide, storm changes by climate change
Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea

Kosung(Songpori), Kwangwoondo
Swell(long wave) in fall and winter
Progression of artificial defense

Nov, 2006 Nov, 2006 Nov, 2006

Feb, 2009 Feb, 2009 Feb, 2009

Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea

Sokcho(Youngrang-dong), Kwangwoondo
Coastal driveway results in resonant wave in stormy weather and
destruction of coastal wall
Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea

Kangnung(Namhangjin Beach)
Change of coastal flow by port development
Sediment supply loss from nearby lake
Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea

Pohang(Songdo Beach), Kyungsangbukdo

Reclamation of POSCO, river regulation work
Progression of seawall
Beach nourishment and submerged breakwater for restoration
Status: Coastal Erosion in Korea

Taean(Kkokji beach), Choongchungnamdo

Land development, port development, vertical wall construction
results in coastal erosion and pebble
Change of Coastal Forcing
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Defining coastal erosion: scale issue

Different scale of time and space of forcing (natural factors) with

uncertain interactions (left)

Human-induced factors in coastal erosion with cumulative impacts of

different interventions (right)( (Ineke, 2003)

Climate change induced

by carbon emission?
Sea level rise
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Sea-level (Tide gauges: Statistics)

Cho (2001) : until 1996 (PGA Correction)

2.31 ± 2.22 mm/yr
 East Sea : 0.57 ± 0.91 mm/hr
 West Sea : 2.64 ± 2.2.86 mm/hr
 South Sea: 3.13 ± 1.82 mm/hr

Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration (2007)

2.08 ±1.96 mm/yr (until 1999), 2.56±1.82 mm/yr (until 2006)
Ease Sea 1.4 mm/hr, West Sea 1.0 mm/hr, South Sea 3.4 mm/hr
Jeju 5.1 mm/hr
Winter > Summer
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Sea-level (Tide gauge: Spatial & temporal issue)
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Tide gauge : Temporal issue

SLR vs. Observation period

Changes of Coastal Forcing - Sea-level (Altimeter : Overview)

SLR vs. Observation period

 Cho et al (2002) : 4.60±1.94 mm/yr (1992~2001)

 Kang et al (2005): 5.40±0.3 mm/yr (1993~2003)
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Sea-level (Altimeter)

Sea level trend from 1993 to 2008 : 4.02 mm/yr

(Topex/Poseidon & Jason)
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Sea-level (Altimeter)

East Sea : 3.86 mm/yr

South Sea : 4.66 mm/hr

West Sea : 4.18 mm/hr

(Topex/Poseidon & Jason

from 1993 to 2008)
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Typhoon

Changes of maximum wind speed

No change in the frequency for last 27 years

Increased magnitude (wind

speed, precipitation)

Annual number of Typhoons

influenced on Korea Peninsula
(1950~2005)
Moon (2009)

지난 37년간 우리나라
Changes of 연간 일강수량 관측
maximum 극값
daily
An n ual r eco r d o f dai
precipitation 일 강l수량
y accumul
for last
극값 (전국 ) at ed
27pryears
eci pi t at i o n
1000

1위 2002년 태풍 루사 강릉 870.5mm
900

800
2위 1981년 태풍 아그네스 장흥 547.4mm
700
3위 1987년 태풍 베르논 부여 517.6mm
600
[mm]
Moon (2009) 500

400

300 100mm
상승

200

100
태풍영향 (50%)
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Moon
19952000(2009)
2005
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Wave climate

Increasing trend in North Pacific and North Atlatic Ocean

Increasing trend in the Korea Peninsula

(48mm/decade)
Higher trend in the East Sea

* IPCC(2007) AR4

* KEI (2009)
Changes of Coastal Forcing - Precipitation

Spatially inhomogeneous change of precipitation

worldwide by climate change
Increase of summer precipitation and extreme events in
Korea

* IPCC(2007) AR4 * KEI (2009)

Changes of Coastal Forcing - Coastal system and drivers with high variability

Main Physical and Ecosystem Effects

Climate Driver (trend)
on Coastal System

Inundation, flood and storm damage; Erosion; Saltwater Intrusion;

Sea level(↑)
Rising water table/ impeded drainage; Wetland loss (and change)

Increased extreme water levels and wave height; Increased episodic

Intensity (↑)
erosion, storm damage, risk of flooding and defense failure;

Storm Altered surges and storm waves and hence risk of storm damage
Frequency (?)
and flooding

Track (?)

Altered wave conditions, including swell; Altered patterns of erosion

Wave climate (↑)
and accretion; Reorientation of beach platform.

Altered flood risk in coastal lowlands; Altered water quality/salinity;

Run-off (↑,?) Altered fluvial sediment supply; Altered circulation and nutrient
supply
 Assessment
of Shoreline Retreat
Assessment Methodology - Bruun Rule-based Model

Bruun’s Rule-based Model: Equilibrium beach profile

(Dean ,1991; Mimura et al., 1993)
5/3
SW* 3 h W  y  3 h*W*  S 
h( y )  Ay 2/3
y  y  * * 1      W* 
h*  B 5 B  W*  5 B B 
Assumptions
Steady state in alongshore sediment transport
Volume conservation of cross-shelf sediment transport
No changes in wave condition

Data required Shoreline y

Retreat
Incident wave W*

Beach profile (cross-sectional) S

Sediment diameter
h*

Topography after
Sea-level Rise
Present Topography
 - Data and parameter estimation for applying the
Assessment Methodology Bruun’s rule

Sea-Level Rise scenario : total four scenarios

 Median and Upper scenarios of global mean sea-level rise

proposed by IPCC(2007) : 38 cm, 59 cm

 Scenario recommended by IPCC(1997) for the assessment of

climate change effect : 100 cm

 Scenario considering Korean status of sea-level rise : 75 cm

 - Data and parameter estimation for applying the
Assessment Methodology Bruun’s rule

Spatial distribution of data acquired in this study

Data type Project name Authorities Remarks

MLTM
19 places
Establishment of monitoring (2003~2008)
system of coastal erosion MLTM
98 places
Section profile (2009)

Donghae fishing Outreach Office,

Fishing Port Monitoring Kangnung Fishing Port Office 19 places
(2007~2008)

Longterm wave estimation KORDI

Wave 111 grids
(1979~2002) (2003)
Assessment Results - Applications and results

Average rate of shoreline retreat by SLR (111 beaches)

100
86.4
90 전체 All
87. 3
retreat(%)
78.5
80 동해
East coast 80 . 1
71.0 77. 2
남해
South coast
(%)

70 67. 6 69. 9
69. 2
West coast
서해 53.8
후퇴율

60 60 . 3
shoreline

56. 0
51. 9
50
서해 43. 7 45. 1
Rate of 해안선

40 남해
전체
30 29. 6
동해
20

10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

해수면
Sea -level상승 (cm)
rise(m)
Assessment Results - Applications and results

Shoreline retreat rate (111 beaches)

38cm 59cm
38cm SLR
해수면 상승 59cm SLR
해수면 상승
East East
동해 동해
Coast Coast

동해평균 29.6 동해평균 45.1

South South
남해
Coast 남해
Coast

남해평균 51.9 남해평균 67.6

West West
서해 서해
Coast Coast

서해평균 53.8 서해평균 71.0

전체
All 43.7 전체
All 60.3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Shoreline 후퇴율 (%) rate
retreat (%) Shoreline 후퇴율 (%)rate
retreat (%)
Assessment Results - Applications and results

Shoreline retreat rate (111 beaches)

75cm 100cm
75cm SLR
해수면 상승
100cm해수면
SLR 상승
East East
동해 동해
Coast Coast

동해평균 56.0 동해평균 69.9

South South
남해
Coast 남해
Coast

남해평균 77.2 남해평균 87.3

West West
서해 서해
Coast Coast

서해평균 78.5 서해평균 86.4

전체
All 69.2 전체
All 80.1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Shoreline 후퇴율 (%) rate
retreat (%) 후퇴율 (%)rate (%)
Shoreline retreat
Assessment Results - Applications and results

Distributions of shoreline retreat rate (111 beaches)

60 60

50
SLR: 38cm 50
SLR: 59cm
40 40
Frequency

Frequency
30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
0~10

10~20

20~30

30~40

40~50

50~60

60~70

70~80

80~90

90~100

10~20

20~30

30~40

40~50

50~60

60~70

70~80

80~90
0~10

90~100
Rate of Shoreline Retreat(%) Rate of Shoreline Retreat(%)

60 60

50
SLR: 75cm 50
SLR: 100cm
40 40
Frequency

Frequency
30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0
10~20

20~30

30~40

40~50

50~60

60~70

70~80

80~90

10~20

20~30

30~40

40~50

50~60

60~70

70~80

80~90
0~10

90~100

0~10

90~100
Rate of Shoreline Retreat(%) Rate of Shoreline Retreat(%)
Assessment Results - Applications and results

Distributions of shoreline retreat rate (SLR: 1.0m)

12

10
East Coast
8

Frequency
6

0~10

10~20

20~30

30~40

40~50

50~60

60~70

70~80

80~90

90~100
Rate of Shoreline Retreat(%)

20 25
18
16
South Coast 20 West Coast
14

Frequency
Frequency

12 15
10
8 10
6
4 5
2
0 0
10~20

20~30

30~40

40~50

50~60

60~70

70~80

80~90
0~10

90~100
0~10

10~20

20~30

30~40

40~50

50~60

60~70

70~80

80~90

90~100

Rate of Shoreline Retreat(%) Rate of Shoreline Retreat(%)

Assessment Results - Applications and results

Shoreline retreat rate by SLR (38cm, 59cm)

38cm SLR 59cm SLR

Assessment Results - Applications and results

Shoreline retreat rate by SLR (75cm, 100cm)

75cm SLR 100cm SLR

Response
Response Direction (EUROSION, 2004)

Major Findings
- Coastal squeeze and the loss of sediment
- Environmental and economic assessment
- Coastal erosion risk
- Mitigation of coastal erosion
- Information management

Vision
- Coastal resilience should enhanced by
 sediment
 space for coastal processes
 strategic sediment reservoirs
Response Direction (EUROSION, 2004)

Recommendation
- Increase coastal resilience by restoring the sediment balance
and providing space for coastal processes

- Internalize coastal erosion cost & risk in planning and investment

decision

- Make response to coastal erosion accountable

- Strength the knowledge base of coastal erosion and planning

Response Direction

New shoreline management concepts

Management of sediment cells (UK)
Enhancement of coastal resilience and strategic sediment
reservoir (EU sediment and coastal space)
Coastal transition zone and setback (USA, Australia)
Definition of sand as coastal defense and conservation of natural 1 1a
St Abbs Head to
Flamborough Head
1a
1b
1c
St Abb's Head to the Tyne
The Tyne to Seaham Harbour
Seaham Harbour to Saltburn

shoreline (Japan) 1b
1c
1d Saltburn to Flamborough Head

11e

Great Orme to 1d
Solway Firth 11
11a Great Orme to Formby 11d
11b For mby to Rossall Point

 Maintaining natural (physical and geological) function of

11c Rossall Point to Walney Island 11c
11d Walney Island to St Bees Head Flamborough Head
11e St Bees Head to Solway Firth 2a to The Wash 2
2a Flamborough Head to Sunk Island
11b 2b Immingham to Donna Nook
Bardsey Sound to
10 2c Donna Nook to Gibraltar Point

coastal system The Great Orme

10a Bardsey Sound to Fort Belan
10b Isle of Anglesey
10c Fort Belan to Great Orme
10b

10c
11a
2b
2c
2d Gibraltar Point to Snettisham

3a
10a
St David's Head to 2d 3b
Bardsey Sound 9 The Wash to
9a St David's Head to Afon Glaslyn 9b The Thames 3
8d(ii)frompreviousgroup
StDavid'sHeadto TeifiEstuary The Severn to 3a Snettisham to Sheringha m
TeifiEstuarytoDyfiEstuary
DyfiEstuaryto AfonGlaslyn 9a St David's Head 8 3b
3c
Sheringham to Lowestoft
Lowestoft to Harwic h
9b Afon Glaslyn to Bardsey Sound
8a Wellhouse to Lavernock Point 3d Harwich to Canvey Island
8b Lavernock Point to Worms Head 3c
8c Worms Head to St Govan's Head
8d (i) St Govan's Head to St Ann's Head
8d (ii ) St Ann's Head to St David' s Head
8c 3d
8d
8a
8b 7e 4a
Lands End to
The Severn 7 7d 4b
7a Land's End to Trevose Head
7b Trevose Head to Hartland Point
7c
7c Hartland Point to Morte Point 5b
7d Morte Point to Brean Down
7b 5c 5a 4c
7e Brean Down to Sharpness
5d 4d
6a 5f 5e The Thames to
7a 6b
5g
Selsey Bill 4
Selsey Bill to 4a Isle of Grain to N Foreland
6d 6c
PortlandBill 5 4b
4c
N Forela nd to Dover Harbou r
Dover Harbour to Beachy Head
Portland Bill to
6e Lands End 6 5a
5b
Selsey Bill to Hamble
Covered by work in 5a & 5c
4d Beachy Head to Selsey Bill

Isles of Scilly 6a Portland Bill to Dawlish Warren

5c Hamble to Hurst Spit
5d IOW North Coast
6b Dawlish Warren to Start Point 5e IOW South Coast
0 100 6c Start Point to Rame Head 5f Hurst Spit to Durleston Head
N 6d
6e
Rame Head to Lizard Point
Lizard Point to Land's End
5g Durleston Head to Portland Bill
kilometres
Response Direction - Basic direction

Basic direction for response should be based on the

restoration of natural coastal function in physical and
geological processes with their scientific understanding
- Maintaining biodiversity and human use for coastal sustainability
- Minimization of human interference to coastal system

Response measures should be devised in terms of

- Mitigation options : soft option
- Polluter pay principle
- Appropriate institution such as EIA, SEA, CZM, Economic Ass.
- Proactive adaptation to avoid inappropriate consequences
- Adaptive management
Conclusions
Conclusions

Sea level is rising in Korean Waters with higher rate than global
average :
- 4.02mm/yr (global 3.16 mm/yr)

Other forcing such as wave, typhoon, precipitation are also

intensifying in Korea

Vulnerability of Korean coast to SLR in terms of coastal erosion

seems to be high
- 80% retreat of sandy beach to 1m SLR
- Further stress by the change of wave climate and typhoon

Basic direction for response should be based on the restoration of

the natural coastal function in physical and geological processes
with the effort for better scientific understanding and minimization
of human interference to coastal system to maintain the
biodiversity and human use for coastal sustainability
Integrated Assessment due to CC and SLR

KEI Coastal Impact & Adaptation Framework to CC & SLR

Non-Climatic
Sea Level Rise Climate Change
Element

Inundation Estuary
Erosion Salinisation
/Floods Sedimentation

Socio-economic
Impacts

Adaptation
Thank you for your
attention !