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(Anna) Zhao Na
APIC 2015
AGENDA
Conclusions
120 Brent
100
WTI
80
60
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: US EIA
APIC 2015
US N-BUTANES & CRUDE OIL PRICES
$/ton
1,200
US n-Butanes
1,000
600
WTI Crude
400
200
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
WTI ($/bbl)
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WE MIXED BUTANES, BENZENE
& BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES
$/ton
1,600
1,400 WE Benzene
1,200
WE Mixed
Butanes
1,000
600
400
200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1,800
1,400
Coal Benzene
1,200
1,000
Asia Butane
800
400
200
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US Maleic
Anhydride
1,500 1.10 x US
Butane
Margin over
1.10 x Butane
1,000
500
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China
1,700 Maleic
Anhydride
1,400
1.15 x China
Coal Benzene
1,100
Margin over
800 1.15 x China Coal
Benzene
500
200
-100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,000
China
Maleic
1,600 Anhydride
1.14 x Asia
1,200 Butane
Margin over
1.14 x Butane
800
400
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3,000
World Capacity
East Europe
1,000
West Europe
China
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
North America
S & SE Asia
ME & Africa
2,000
East Europe
West Europe
China
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
500
Capacity
400 Consumption
Production
300
200
100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumption
300
Production
200
100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2,000 Capacity
Consumption
1,500
Production
1,000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
100
80 2010
60 2011
ME & Africa
2012
S & SE Asia
40
S America
W Europe 2013
20
2014
0
N America
E Europe
NE Asia
China
-20
-40
-60
-80
UPR
600 BDO
Others
400
200
0
2010
2014
2010
2014
2010
2014
2010
2014
2010
2014
2010
2014
2010
2014
2010
2014
North South West East ME & S & SE NE China
America America Europe Europe Africa Asia Asia
1,200
900
600
300
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Electrical Industrial
8% 10% Marine
3%
Marine
Others 9% Others
8%
11%
Gelcoats
Transport Architecture Transport
7%
14% & 5%
Artificial
Structure
Marble
32%
15%
Europe China
Source: Cefic European UP/VE Resin Association; Chinese Society for Composite Materials
APIC 2015
CONCLUSIONS
The impact of low benzene prices on the global maleic market will be felt in
terms of demand improvement ,while butane is likely to maintain its cost
advantage over benzene as a maleic feedstock in the long run.
The global maleic market has been showing modest improvement in the past
few years in US and Europe, strong growth in the Middle East and Southeast
Asia and slowing growth in China
High transportation costs, for heating etc. mean that maleic remains a largely
regional market. However, new trading opportunities have emerged amid
lengthening supply in China and Northeast Asia and steady demand in
Middle East and Southeast Asia.
Butane based maleic has continued to grow in China due to its cost
advantage over benzene and easier availability of feedstock butane - both of
which could lead to increasing maleic exports from China.
UPR has maintained its dominant share of maleic consumption, but growth
has slowed in China.