Regresin lineal

: = +

Ecuacin 1:

n n

na + ( xi)b = yi
i=1 i=1

Ecuacin 2:

n n n
2
( xi)a = ( xi )b = xiyi
i=1 i=1 i=1

Coeficiente de correlacion r:

n xiyi xi yi
r=
(n xi2 ( xi)2 )(n yi2 ( yi)2 )

Ao TPSs yi xi (xi)^2 xiyi (yi)^2

1997 6488 1 1 6488 42094144

1998 7902 2 4 15804 62441604
1999 7713 3 9 23139 59490369
2000 7458 4 16 29832 55621764
2001 7404 5 25 37020 54819216
2002 7474 6 36 44844 55860676
2003 8828 7 49 61796 77933584
2004 8804 8 64 70432 77510416
2005 7623 9 81 68607 58110129
2006 9735 10 100 97350 94770225
2007 14578 11 121 160358 212518084
2008 10130 12 144 121560 102616900
2009 11811 13 169 153543 139499721
2010 10436 14 196 146104 108910096
2011 19724 15 225 295860 389036176
Sumatoria 146108 120 1240 1332737 1591233104
15a + 120b = 146108
120a + 1240b = 1332737
146108 120b
Despejar a para 15a + 120b = 146108: a=
15
Sustitiir a

146108 120b
120 + 1240b = 1332737
15

146108 120b 163873

Despejar b para 120 + 1240b = 1332737: b=
15 280

156108 120b
Para a =
15

163873
Sustituir b =
280

163873
146108 120 531137
a= 280 a=
15 105

15 1332737 120 146108

r= = 0,755
(15 1240 (120)2 )(15 159123194 (146108)2 )

= ,
= ,
= .
=
 Regreson lineal
25000

20000

y = 585,26x + 5058,4
15000

10000

5000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Regresin exponencial

: =

Ecuacin 1:

n n

n(lna) + ( xi)(lnb) = lnyi

i=1 i=1

Ecuacin 2:

n n n

( xi)(lna) = ( xi2 )(lnb) = xi(lnyi)

i=1 i=1 i=1

Coeficiente de correlacin r:

n( xi(lnyi) (( xi)( lnyi))

r=
(n xi2 ( xi)2 )(n (lnyi)2 ( lnyi)2 )
 Ao xi TPSs yi (xi)^2 ln yi xi (lnyi) (ln yi)^2

1997 1 6488 1 8,778 8,778 77,048

1998 2 7902 4 8,975 17,950 80,548
1999 3 7713 9 8,951 26,852 80,114
2000 4 7458 16 8,917 35,668 79,514
2001 5 7404 25 8,910 44,549 79,384
2002 6 7474 36 8,919 53,515 79,552
2003 7 8828 49 9,086 63,600 82,550
2004 8 8804 64 9,083 72,664 82,500
2005 9 7623 81 8,939 80,450 79,904
2006 10 9735 100 9,183 91,835 84,336
2007 11 14578 121 9,587 105,460 91,916
2008 12 10130 144 9,223 110,679 85,068
2009 13 11811 169 9,377 121,898 87,924
2010 14 10436 196 9,253 129,542 85,618
2011 15 19724 225 9,890 148,344 97,804
Sumatoria 120 146108 1240 137,070 1111,784 1253,782

15(ln(a)) + 120(ln(b)) = 137.070

120(ln(a)) + 1240(ln(b)) = 1111.784
146108 120b
Despejar a para 15a + 120b = 146108: a=
15
Sustitiir a

146108 120b
120 + 1240b = 1332737
15

146108 120b 163873

Despejar b para 120 + 1240b = 1332737: b=
15 280

156108 120b
Para a =
15

163873
Sustituir b =
280

163873
146108 120 531137
a= 280 a=
15 105
 15 1332737 120 146108
r= = 0,755
(15 1240 (120)2 )(15 159123194 (146108)2 )

= ,
= ,
= .
=