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1. .

2. .

3. .

3.1. .
3.2. -
.
3.3. - .
3.4. .
3.5. .
3.6. -
. .
3.7. .
3.8. , -
.

4. .

4.1. .
4.2. .
4.3. .
4.4. .

5. .

6. .

1
1.
1) .
x x; -
, x.
; , -
, : xx .
2) .
,
. : -
( , ..),
( -
, ) , , -
.
.
0.05 4. 0.5
100 -
, 0.5% , .. 0.5 . -
, , -
(, -
0.1 ). . ,

, 0.25 .

.

. -
. ,
,
, . ,
, .
.
-
, .. , .

2
,
.

2.
x ,
; -
.
, .
, -
, , . , -
, -
.
, ( ) -
-
Y x1 , x2 , x3 , . . .
:

Xn

Y
Y = x xi , (1)
i=1 i

Y (x1 , x2 , x3 , . . . , xn ) , -
() x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ;
xi ( ) xi .
Y
xi .
xi
, x
:

Y
Y = x dY x, (2)
x dx

dY
.
dx
:

Y
Y = x1 + Y x2 .. (3)
x1 x2

3
1.
-
.
r
k
, = = Y (k, m), k
m
, m . -
(3):

s 0 s 0 s

k k k 1 k m
= k +

m =
+ ,
m m 2 km 2 m m
k m

k
; m ; k m
. ,

( k = 3, 333, k = 0, 0005).

2.
n
P
Y = x1 + x2 + . . . + xn = xi , -
i=1
:
n
P
xi
Y x1 + x2 + + xn i=1
= = Pn (4.1)
Y x1 + x2 + + xn xi
i=1

Y = x1 x2 . . . xn

Y x1 x2 xn
= + + + (4.2)
Y x1 x2 xn
x1
Y =
x2
Y x1 x2
= + (4.3)
Y x1 x2

4
3.
, , -
. -
.

3.1.
-
,
. A
P (A), -
. , 0 P (A) 1 -
, .
.
.
m
=
n
m A n ; -
.
> 0 P ,
n | P | < . P -
A; ,
A n :

lim = P
n

3.2. -

-
, -
. -
. , -
-
1
, , 1
6

5
6. . -
,
(
).

.
, -
, ; -
.
-
:
1 (xx0 )2
(x) = e 22 (5)
2
x ; x0 -
; ; 2 ;
e = 2, 71928 .
. 1 (x)
. , -
x0 .

r(x)

x0 = 1, F = 0,09

x0 = 1, F = 0,18

x0 = 1, F = 0,3

x
. 1.

6
,
x0 -
n :
x1 + x2 + + xn
xn = , (6)
n
xi i- x.
(n),
, ..

lim xn = x0
n
, 4.

3.3. -
, -
.
, ,
. , -
, (x),
x0 . , -
. -
:
, .
-
n. , ,
, -
x x; - -
():
s
(x x1 )2 + (x x2 )2 + + (x xn )2
Sn = =
n1
v
uP
u n
u (x xi )2
t i=1
= (7)
n1

7
, -
, - :

lim Sn =
n
n, :

Sn (8)
, Sn .
3.4. .
(x) -
x dx. -
, (x)dx
x dx. P

x0 x x x0 + x
(9)
x (x x0 ) x
(x); -
(. 2):

r(x) dx

0 x0) x x0 x 0 +) x x
. 2.

8

(x0 x) x (x0 + x)
x0Z+x


P x (x x0 ) x = (x)dx = (10)

x0 x
(x x) x0 (x + x)

-
. , , -
,
x. x -
. -
:
(
), x -

.
x -
(5) -
.
1:


0 0 0.9 0.63 2.0 0.95 3.1 0.9981
0.05 0.04 1.0 0.68 2.1 0.964 3.2 0.9986
0.1 0.08 1.1 0.73 2.2 0.972 3.3 0.9990
0.15 0.12 1.2 0.77 2.3 0.978 3.4 0.9993
0.2 0.16 1.3 0.80 2.4 0.984 3.5 0.9995
0.3 0.24 1.4 0.84 2.5 0.988 3.6 0.9997
0.4 0.31 1.5 0.87 2.6 0.990 3.7 0.9998
0.5 0.38 1.6 0.89 2.7 0.993 3.8 0.99986
0.6 0.45 1.7 0.91 2.8 0.995 3.9 0.99990
0.7 0.51 1.8 0.93 2.9 0.996 4.0 0.99993
0.8 0.57 1.9 0.94 3.0 0.997

9
x
= . -

1,
; , -
Sn ; -
. -
-
.
: x, . , -
, -
x = ( = 1), 0.68;

x = 2 = 0.95
x = 3 = 0.997

, ,
(). .
2: , -
x. , -
( , , .)
. -
, -
.

3.5.
z

z = x y,

x, y
- Sn Sy ,
- z :

Sz2 = Sx2 + Sy2 (11)

10
N Xi :
N
X
Sz2 = 2
SX i
(11.1)
i=1

, X Y
Sx
- Sx Sy = . (11)
2
Sz 1.1 Sx
, -

, .

.
x1 , x2 , . . . , xn
( ) Sn . -
x1 x2 xn
x = + + + .
n n n
(11.1):
2 2 2
Sn Sn Sn Sn2
Sx2 = + + + =
n n n n
Sn
Sx = (12)
n
,
, .

3.6. -
. -

x -
, : x0
n . ,
n , :

11
|x0 x| x
= n t,n (13)
Sx Sn
t,n ,
( ) -
n. ,
t,n
x
, , .
-
(5) , , n.
, -
n. n 2 -
( , 2)

; x
t,n (13).
, n t,n
: -
, =0.7 n t0.7,n 1.0;
=0.95 t0.95,n 2.0 ( :
=0.68 =1.0, =0.95, =2.0). ,
n Sn . n
t,n .
, t,n
x:

Sn Sn
x = t,n > (14)
n n
, -
(10) :

Sn Sn
P (x t,n < x0 < x + t,n ) = (15)
n n
, x0 -
Sn Sn
(x t,n , x + t,n ). -
n n

12

Sn
x = t,n .
n
. ,
-
Wo + We
:

. . .
1 30 7 24 13 39
2 27 8 27 14 41
3 25 9 29 15 43
4 18 10 33 16 44
5 16 11 35 17 45
6 23 12 37 18 43

:
n = 18
x = 32.17 .
Sn =9.17 .

: Wo + We = const.

= 0.95 ?
:
(14), Sn = 9.17, n = 18, t0.95,18 = 2.1 ( . 2):

9.17
x = 2.1 = 4.54 .
18
x
= 0.14 = 14%.
x
: = 0.95 -
14%.

13
3.7.
, -
.
. -
n .

. ,
, (x) -
, 3 , 0.003. , x
( ) , -
. ,
-
, .
, -
.
-, , -
. -,
(0.1, 0.01), ,
. > 0.1
, < 0.01 .

3.8.
.
()
, -
Sn
( x = t,n ) ,
n
x. x. . -

s 2
X S
= 2 + n 2 = 0.95 (16)
n
: 2.

14
, ..

4Sn2 2 , (17)
. -
,
().
, -
,
-
:

= 1 2 n , (18)
: 1 , 2 , . . . -
.
, ,
1.

4.
4.1.
,
n 10 -
30 %. , -
,
3:
x = 0.357
( x)
= 0.3 0.357
= 0.11
, -
; : x = 0.357 0.4 0.1 .
x 3 , -
:

x = 0.226

15
( x)
= 0.3 0.226 = 0.07
x 0.23 0.07
.

4.2.
-
. , -
, , -
.
, -
. :
,
(.. 10 ) .

4.3. ( -
y)
1. .
2. --
: x1 , x2 , . . . ; Sn1 , Sn2 , . . . .
3. x1 , x2 , . . .
:
Sn
xi = t0.95, ni i (19)
ni
: = 0.95; , -
, = 0.98;
ni - .
.
4.
(16):
p
i = i 2 + xi 2 (20)

: i - -
xi . .

16
5. -
( 1 4) y ; x1 , x1 , . . .
1 , 2 , . . . (20).
, n > 10,
n < 10.
6. xi
y . -
, ()
y.
y
7. .
y
8. :
y = y y
= 1 2 . . .
9. N -
, - -
: v
uN
u X (y yk )2
t k
SN
k=1
N 1
: yk y k- ,
N ; yk -
k- .
10.

SN y
y = t0.95,N .
N y
-
0.95.
4.4.


( ) -
(y)
y

17
; :
y - -
; ( y) .
( y) :
-
, -
, .
, (20 30)
( -
). ( )
0,95.
n = 20, t0.95, 20 = 2.1;
S20
i = 2.1 (. (19)), S20 -
20
( (7)).
, -
. S20 20
. ( y)
i ,
(. 3).

i
) ()y)
)i

)()y) y
. 3.
, ,
, -
yk ; , ..

18
( ) . -
(k 1) , k
. , -

( y)
, yk = (k 1) y,
yk
y ,
.


0.95.

5.
1. .
2. .
3. , .
4. .
5. - .
6. ?
?
7. , -
?
8. .
9. . -
. .
10. , ?
11. -
.
12. . -
. , -
, , .
13. -
. .

19
6.

1. . .. . , 10. 2001. . 9.

2. A.. . .
1968 .

20

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