INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. 25: 16191631 (2005)

Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/joc.1211

LONG-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE AND SURFACE VERSUS

UNDERGROUND TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS IN PARIS
F. PERRIER,a,b, * J.-L. LE MOUEL,a J.-P. POIRIERa and M. G. SHNIRMANc
a Laboratoire de Geomagnetisme, Institut de Physique du Globe, Paris, France
b Laboratoire Hydrogeochimie et Etudes de Sites, Commissariat a lenergie atomique, Bruyeres-le-Chatel, France
c International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia

Received 17 November 2004

Revised 18 April 2005
Accepted 18 April 2005

ABSTRACT
Careful temperature measurements performed from 1783 to 1852 in underground galleries, 28 m below the Paris
Observatory, are compared with current measurements performed in a limestone quarry, 20 m below ground surface,
and with local and European surface temperature records. When averaged using a backward 11-year moving window,
the surface temperature time series looks similar and exhibits the already well-known 1 C temperature increase over the
last century. In addition, since about 1987, a steeper increase of about 0.07 C per year is noticed on all surface records.
Underground temperatures, unaffected by surface fluctuations and averaging procedures, show a 0.9 C increase and thus
confirm the trend indicated by the surface records. The averaged time series of the temperature in Paris and of the Wolf
number, an indicator of sunspot activity, were reasonably well correlated till 1987 but deviated significantly from each
other after that date. The long-term connection between surface temperature and solar cycles is further supported by a
temporal analysis of the frequency content at 11 years and 5.5 years. Visual correlations between temperature and sunspot
numbers, unconvincing when using recent records, appear more striking with underground data from 1783 to 1852. This
analysis suggests that solar activity played an important role in temperature changes till the last century, but that different
processes, possibly related to human-induced changes in the climate system, have been taking place lately with increasing
intensity, especially since 1987. Copyright 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

KEY WORDS: caves; global warming; surface temperature; underground; sunspots

1. INTRODUCTION

Since the beginning of the nineteenth century, when Fourier (1827) pointed out that the atmosphere played
the same role as the glass panes of a greenhouse, preventing the obscure heat from escaping, it has been
known that the so-called greenhouse effect accounted for the Earths surface temperature being in average
15 C rather than 20 C. Arrhenius (1896) calculated the temperature increase resulting from the increasing
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is now generally accepted that the burning of fossil fuels
causes an increase in atmospheric CO2 and hence, together with other contributions such as methane, leads
to global warming (e.g. Petit et al., 1999; Mann et al., 1998). The question of when a significant temperature
increase started being noticeable is, however, still a matter of debate, as is the question of whether the recent
increase might be, at least partly, due to changes in solar activity (e.g. Solanki and Krivova, 2003; Laut,
2003; Friis-Christensen and Lassen, 1991).
The assessment of significant variations of the mean surface temperature is seen to be fraught with
difficulties, stemming from the unavoidable noise due mostly to atmospheric turbulence and artificial heat
sources. In the present paper, we investigate whether underground temperature measurements in caves 20 to

* Correspondence to: F. Perrier, DASE/RCE/HES, B.P.12, F-91680 Bruyeres-le-Chatel, France; e-mail: frederic.perrier@cea.fr

Copyright 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

1620 F. PERRIER ET AL.

30 m deep are reasonably free from such inconvenience, and whether they could provide useful complementary
information for the assessment of a long-term climate change.
This question, raised in 1942 (Mironovitch, 1942), was already considered for the Paris area in 1970
(Dettwiller, 1970a,b) using surface temperature records obtained in Montsouris and Saint-Maur parks, and
underground temperature measurements in a gallery below the Paris Observatory. The averaged temperature
in Montsouris and Saint-Maur were observed to be stable before 1850, then rising with a slope of about 1 C
per century, in agreement with underground observations. As the Montsouris and Saint-Maur areas were not
populated before 1850, most of this temperature increase was attributed to urbanization. Different views may
be proposed today with the inclusion of three decades of data. In particular, recent studies (e.g. Jones et al.,
1999 and references therein), have compared urban and non-urban records and concluded that the temperature
trend could not be attributed to local urban heating only, but that the observed temperature increase rather
reflected a global climatic trend. Therefore, the conclusions obtained in 1970 for the Paris area need to be
re-evaluated. In addition, temperature records in the underground galleries of the Paris Observatory were
possibly affected by the presence of a heat source (petrol lamp) from 1912 to 1917. Recent experiments
(Crouzeix et al., 2003) indeed indicated that a low power heat source can have lasting effects in underground
settings, possibly longer than ten times the heating duration.
In this paper, we make use of an updated temperature data set both at the surface and underground. First, we
use homogenized series of surface temperature measurements in Paris and all over Europe. We will show that
these data, properly filtered, give surprisingly consistent results and smooth out most of the noise. Secondly,
available underground temperature measurements in Paris will be carefully evaluated to be able to make
a meaningful comparison with surface records. Data obtained between 1783 and 1852 in the underground
galleries of the Paris Observatory will be complemented by data obtained in a disused quarry in 2003 and
2004.
We will compare surface and underground temperature measurements to the Wolf number, a good indicator
of solar activity, defined as s + 10 g where s and g are the spot and spot group numbers, respectively. Sunspots
have been consistently characterized in this way from Earth since 1749. Surface temperatures followed the
trend of the solar activity up to about 1987 and grew more rapidly after this date (Le Mouel et al., 2004b;
Solanki and Krivova, 2003).

2. SURFACE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS

2.1. Temperature series at Montsouris and Saint-Maur

Montsouris Observatory is located in the southern part of Paris intra muros (14th arrondissement), in a
16 ha park, a short distance from the Boulevard peripherique (Figure 1). When it was established in 1872,
the Montsouris meteorological observatory was located at the edge of Paris (Dettwiller, 1970b), but it is
now well inside the highly urbanized city core (average density 20 103 person per sq. km in 1999). The
observatory at Saint-Maur des Fosses was established in 1873 about 10 km east-south-east of Paris, then in
the countryside (Figure 1). It is now located in a 3 ha park, in a residential, suburban area of small detached
houses (density 6.5 103 person per sq. km in 1999).
A long series of daily temperatures at Montsouris Observatory is available. It starts in 1873 and includes the
daily minimum and maximum values and the daily mean value. The method by which the values have been
collected, corrected and homogenized is described in Moisselin et al. (2002). The series of averaged daily
values are shown in Figure 2. The averages are computed using a backward running window of 11 years.
This choice is designed to smooth out a possible influence of the solar cycle. A smooth continuous increase
is observed in the minimum temperature. The variation of the maximum temperature is different. It shows
a similar increase over the first hundred years, then a decrease followed by an abrupt increase after 1987,
with a slope of the order of 0.064 C per year. Such recent large temperature increases have been reported by
other workers (e.g. Jones et al., 1999; Solanki and Krivova, 2003; Le Mouel et al., 2004b). The different time
evolution of the minimum and the maximum temperatures in Paris, also pointed out previously (Moisselin
et al., 2002), is a global phenomenon that has been observed at other non-urban locations and therefore
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 CHANGES IN SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND TEMPERATURES 1621

Surface temperature Paris Montsouris

measurements Saint-Maur
Underground temperature Paris Observatory
5 km measurements Vincennes quarry

Seine
river
Paris Vincennes
park

Marne
river

Figure 1. Map showing the locations of the sites in the Paris area mentioned in the paper

cannot be attributed to urbanization effects only (Jones et al., 1999). In France, the spatial organization of
the minimum temperature trend suggests a change of cloud cover from the Atlantic Ocean (Moisselin et al.,
2002). Contrary to expectations, the smoothed temperature record in Paris Montsouris primarily reflects the
regional temperature evolution and does not appear to be contaminated greatly by the urban heat island. This
conclusion was also reached after a detailed comparison of urban and rural stations in the United States
(Peterson, 2003), a study which also suggested that the parks where the long-term observatories are located
could provide an efficient cooling mechanism against the urban heat island.
A series of minimum, maximum and average temperatures is also available at the observatory of Saint-Maur
des Fosses, starting in 1978. The Saint-Maur data, filtered as described above, are displayed in Figure 3,
and compared with the Montsouris records. The two curves are strikingly similar, as noticed previously
(Dettwiller, 1970a,b). The abrupt temperature increase around 1987, noticed in Figure 2, is also seen here.
We note, however, a puzzling behaviour of the averaged temperature difference, which shows a minimum
around 1990 (Figure 3, black line).

Paris Montsouris

Minimum
Temperature maximum (C)

Temperature minimum (C)

16

14 Minimum

6
1900 1925 1950 1975

Figure 2. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures as a function of time. Data from the Paris Montsouris station, obtained from
meteo-France (Moisselin et al., 2002), are filtered using a backward moving window of 11 years. Thus, each data point corresponds to
the average over the 4015 previous days

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1622 F. PERRIER ET AL.

13.0 0.4
Paris Montsouris
Saint-Maur
Saint-MaurMontsouris

Temperature difference (C)

0.2
12.5
Temperature (C)

0.0
12.0

0.2
11.5

0.4
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Figure 3. Mean daily temperature at Paris Montsouris and Saint-Maur. Data are filtered using a backward moving window of 11 years

2.2. Long temperature series in European cities

Long-term local surface temperature changes (Figure 3) are reasonably similar to changes averaged over a
much wider area. Thus, for instance, the time series of the averaged temperature at Montsouris is compared
with the evolution of a reference mean temperature over Northern Europe (Jones et al., 1999) in Figure 4.
Uninterrupted series of daily temperature measurements since the eighteenth century (Figure 5) exist for
Milan, Stockholm, Uppsala (65 km north of Stockholm) and the central part of Belgium. The correction of
systematic errors and the homogenization to obtain these data are described in detail in the book by Camuffo
and Jones (2002).
A slope of about 1 C per century is observed in all cities after 1850, in agreement with borehole data
(e.g. Huang et al., 2000; Beltrami and Bourlon, 2004) and tree ring reconstructions (Briffa et al., 2001). Some
transient coherent temperature variations are expected (e.g. Robock, 2000; Briffa et al., 1998) as consequences
of particularly strong volcanic eruptions such as Laki (1783) and Askja (1875) in Iceland, Tambora (1815)

Paris Montsouris

12.5

12.0
Temperature (C)

11.5

11.0

10.5
Northern Europe (Jones et al., 1999)

1900 1925 1950 1975

Figure 4. Mean daily temperature at Paris Montsouris and compiled temperature variation obtained by Jones et al. (1999). Both data
series are filtered using a backward moving window of 11 years

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 CHANGES IN SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND TEMPERATURES 1623

6.5

Temperature (C) Temperature (C) Temperature (C)

6.0
5.5 Uppsala

Temperature (C) Temperature (C)

7.0
5.0
6.5
4.5
6.0
10.5 5.5
Stockholm
10.0 5.0
9.5 12.5
Belgium
9.0 12.0
11.5
14.0
Paris 11.0
13.5
10.5
13.0
12.5
Milan
12.0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950

Figure 5. Mean daily temperature at Paris Montsouris and at selected European locations (Camuffo and Jones, 2002). Data series are
filtered using a backward moving window of 11 years

and Krakatoa (1883) in Indonesia, or Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991). The forcing associated with
such volcanic eruptions should be mainly interannual but a possible decadal-scale effect remains unclear
(Robock, 2000). Despite some differences in the curves from place to place, the abrupt temperature increase,
starting around 1987, is clearly seen on all curves (Figure 5), with slopes ranging from 0.045 to 0.086 C per
year. Such rapid temperature increases have occurred locally several times in the past. However, they were
not simultaneously present at all sites.

3. PARIS OBSERVATORY UNDERGROUND DATA

At the end of the eighteenth century, a series of temperature measurements was performed in the underground
galleries of the Paris Observatory (Figure 1) by Jean-Dominique Cassini IV (17481845), director of the
observatory. The measurements are recorded in a manuscript kept in the observatory library (ms AD 5.33).
Although Cassini recorded the temperature for only a few years (from August 1783 to March 1789, i.e. about
2000 days), the extreme care with which he carried out his measurements and the accuracy achieved make
them worthy of mention here. The galleries below the observatory (indeed, below much of the left bank of
the Seine) are those of underground quarries, dug in the Lutetian limestone, which served as building stone
for much of Paris. They lie 28 m deep below the surface and their temperature was known to be very stable.
Cassini, having decided to measure the evolution of the temperature over the years, recognized that the
variations were so small that he would have to use thermometers of exquisite precision and sensitivity. He
also demanded a finite response time, in order for the temperature to remain stable while being read by an
experimenter. There existed no thermometer with such extraordinary specifications, and Cassini writes that
he was fortunate enough to have the thermometer built by Lavoisier himself.
Indeed, Cassini could install two Reaumur mercury thermometers (for which the difference in temperature
between the melting ice and the boiling water was 80 degrees). The first one, the most precise and sensitive
(Lavoisier, 1785), was graduated in such a way that one degree was 4 inches 3 lines long (10.8 cm), which
allowed a precision in reading of better than 0.005 degree (0. 01 degree Reaumur, or 0. 0125 C, corresponded
to about 1 mm). To remain of manageable length, the thermometer had to be graduated only for temperatures
close to that of the gallery, which, of course, precluded direct calibration at melting ice and boiling water
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1624 F. PERRIER ET AL.

temperature. Therefore, Cassini had another thermometer calibrated and used it as a standard for the more
accurate one.
The two thermometers were installed underground at the beginning of July 1783, in a room of the former
quarry 101 ft long, 6 ft wide and 8 ft high (31 m, 1.8 m and 2.4 m, respectively). All openings were carefully
sealed, except one which was closed by a door. The measurements began a month later and the results are
displayed in Figure 6a. In order to introduce minimal perturbations, Cassini entered the room always alone,
holding a weak candle and remaining only the short time needed to read both thermometers. Thus, Cassini
was aware of the thermal effect associated with a person, which corresponds to a power of the order of
100 W, a value large enough to produce lasting thermal effects in the delicate underground environment
(Crouzeix et al., 2003). The temperature at the surface was also measured. Cassini notes that during an
external temperature cycle of 30 C (between summer and winter), the temperature of the room did not vary
by more than 0.03 C. The annual wave is indeed completely damped. A temperature increase of about 0.5 C
was observed (Figure 6a) over the 2000 days during which measurements were made.
Because of the French Revolution, Cassini had to interrupt his experiment, but measurements with the
Lavoisier thermometer were continued after 1795 and compiled by Francois Arago (17861853). Arago,
director of the observatory at that time, suspected a drift of the absolute scale of the thermometer and
ordered another thermometer from Gay-Lussac. Data were recorded from both instruments from 1817 to 1852
(Figure 6b). A systematic shift, whose origin cannot be ascertained, was observed between the temperature
scales of the two thermometers. The mean value, however, was compatible with a single earlier measurement
(11.76 C) performed at the same location by Messier in 1776 (Arago, 1854).
After Aragos death, the Lavoisier thermometer was damaged and the temperature was no longer recorded
continuously in the Cassini underground room. Additional temperature measurements are punctually available
from 1865 to 1954 but these data are affected by the presence of a petrol lamp and therefore have to be
disregarded for our study.
Nowadays, precise temperature records below the Paris Observatory are not meaningful any more because
of the installation of underground heating pipes, probably between the First and the Second World War.

(a) Cassini IV data

11.8
Temperature (C)

11.6

11.4

1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789

(b) Arago data

12.2
Temperature (C)

12.0

11.8 Lavoisier
Gay Lussac

1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840

Figure 6. Underground temperature records below the Paris Observatory (depth 28 m): (a) data from Cassini using the Lavoisier
thermometer. (b) Data from Arago using the Lavoisier thermometer (diamonds) and using another thermometer built by Gay-Lussac
(triangles)

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 CHANGES IN SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND TEMPERATURES 1625

Indeed, we measured a temperature of about 14.9 C in the beginning of 2004. To attempt a comparison
between the past temperature records at the Paris Observatory and present time surface temperature, we can,
however, use another underground cavity, unaffected by the heating pipes present in Paris intra muros.

4. UNDERGROUND MEASUREMENTS AT VINCENNES

Since February 2003, we have been measuring the temperature at several locations in an underground Lutetian
limestone quarry, located below the 365 ha Vincennes Park, 3 km SE of Paris (Figure 1). The quarry, spread
over a surface of about 32 000 m2 , was dug according to the room and pillar technique, in the eighteenth and
early nineteenth century. Its roof is 18 m thick. Natural ventilation operates mainly through the access pit, with
a diameter of about 4.6 m (Perrier et al., 2004). Temperatures are recorded, in the atmosphere, by Seabird
autonomous sensors. These instruments are calibrated with a precision of 0.001 C. The measurement points
are spread over the entire quarry, the sensors being at distances from the floor varying from 10 cm to 1 m.
Time series are shown in Figure 7. Long-term variations are heterogeneous in the quarry: both the amplitude
of the annual variation and the long-term trend are different from point to point. The origin of this heterogeneity
is not clear. While there is no correlation with the distance from the floor, or to the nearest wall, smaller
annual variations are observed at the points most remote from the main access pit (point number 6). This
suggests that natural ventilation (Perrier et al., 2004) may be dominating the amplitude of the annual variation.
The slope of the long-term trend can be obtained by fitting these data to a function composed of an annual
sine wave superimposed to a linear trend. A mean linear increase of about 0.02 C per year is obtained.

5. COMPARISON OF THE UNDERGROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES

Surface and underground temperature data in Paris are displayed in Figure 8. In order to check the consistency
of underground and surface temperatures, we have filtered the surface data using a diffusion filter, thus

12.70

12.60
2
Temperature (C)

12.50 4
5

12.40
1

12.30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N

2003 2004

Figure 7. Underground temperature records at the Vincennes quarry (depth 18 m). Measurement points (numbered 1 to 6 from north to
south) are spread over the entire quarry

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1626 F. PERRIER ET AL.

transforming the temperature series of daily means into the series that would have been observed at a
reference depth of 20 m, in a half-space of thermal diffusivity = 106 m2 s1 . The diffused time series TiD
is calculated as follows. The surface temperature time series Ti is transformed into the frequency domain Tk
by Fast Fourier Transform. For one-dimensional diffusion in a half-space, the transfer function of a surface
harmonic perturbation of frequency f at depth z (defined positive upwards) is

z 
A() = exp (1 + i) , (1)

where is the attenuation length at frequency f :


= . (2)
f

The time series TiD is then obtained by multiplying the transformed series Tk by the harmonic transfer
function A() given by Equation (1), transforming back into the time domain by inverse Fourier Transform.
This filtering technique, which damps efficiently the annual amplitude and surface noise, has a relevant
physical basis. It could be used in general as we note that the obtained time series for Montsouris is similar
to the series obtained using a backward running average of length 11 years (displayed in Figure 4). The
Montsouris time series starting in 1875 has been complemented by the average of the time series of Milan
and Uppsala, also processed by the diffusion filter. This time series, which allows this extrapolation before
1875, is matched with the Montsouris temperature between 1890 and 1900. Similar results are obtained if, for
example, the time series from Stockholm is used instead for this extrapolation, but the details of the temporal
variations before 1800 differ, as can be noticed in Figure 5. It is again seen in Figure 8 that the filtered surface
temperatures show an increasing trend up to about 1987 and grow more rapidly after this date.
Underground temperatures in Figure 8 were corrected to take into account the geothermal gradient between
the actual depth of measurement and the surface. A value of 0.03 C m1 , independent of time is assumed
for the geothermal gradient. The observed temperature in the underground sites has to be shifted downward,
and this shift depends on the depth of the site. The shift amounts to 0.84 C for the galleries below the Paris
Observatory (28 m depth) and to 0.54 C for the Vincennes quarry (depth 18 m). This correction is uncertain,
as the near-surface temperature gradient can be affected by other causes, such as urbanization (e.g. Block
et al., 2004; Ferguson and Woodbury, 2004) or groundwater flow (Smith and Chapman, 1983). Such effects

Messier data Vincennes data

12.0 AragoLavoisier data

Paris Montsouris filtered

Temperature (C)

11.5

11.0

Average of Milan and Uppsala filtered

10.5 AragoGay Lussac data
Cassini data

1800 1850 1900 1950

Figure 8. Underground and surface temperature records for the Paris area. Surface data have been filtered using a diffusion filter for
a reference depth of 20 m, assuming a thermal diffusivity of 106 m2 s1 . Underground data have been corrected for the geothermal
gradient

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 CHANGES IN SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND TEMPERATURES 1627

should not affect our correction to first order. Indeed, dwellings are located at least 500 m away from the
location of the quarry in the Vincennes Park. In addition, infiltration rate is small because of overlying clay
layers.
In Figure 8, the mean temperature observed from 1776 to 1852 in the underground galleries of the Paris
Observatory (about 11 C) agrees well with the mean temperature obtained from the surface temperature
records in Montsouris, extrapolated in time from 1875. The time structures of the extrapolated temperature
and the measured temperature underground, however, are rather different. The present corrected underground
temperature at Vincennes (about 11.9 C) is significantly larger than the corrected average temperature (11 C)
recorded from 1776 to 1852 at the Paris Observatory. The temperature increase between the two dates (0.9 C)
is in good agreement with the filtered surface temperature (Figure 8). We can thus conclude that, at first order,
the temperature measured currently in the Vincennes quarry reflects the global surface temperature change.

6. TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION AND SUNSPOTS

The question of whether temperature (or climate) and solar activity might be related is a very timely one,
all the more since it bears on the assessment of human activity on global warming. There is as yet no clear
answer (Laut, 2003).
James Jeans (1934) showed a good correlation between the number of sunspots, between 1896 and 1927,
and the height of water in Lake Victoria Nyanza. He pointed out that the height of water in the lake keeps
in almost perfect step with the frequency of sunspots, and so exhibits a 11-year cycle, just as sunspots do.
The water is of course higher after a wet year, providing proof that the weather is wettest when sunspots
are frequent, and vice versa. Since precipitation bears some relation to temperatures, this observation may
be seen in the light of the work of Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991), who showed a correlation between
the length of the solar cycle and the so-called temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. Indeed, Solanki and
Krivova (2003) showed that the curve representing the time variation of the Sun total irradiance and the one
representing the global temperature (i.e. climate) present a rather strong similarity, since the beginning of the
twentieth century up to 1970. A similar conclusion can be obtained by using any geomagnetic parameter (Le
Mouel et al., 2004b).
Figure 9 shows the running averages over 11 years of the temperature at Montsouris and of the Wolf
number, as a function of time since 1870. The two curves present similar trends, at least till 1987. After

Paris Montsouris
12.5

12.0 100
Temperature (C)

Wolf number

11.5

50
11.0

10.5

0
1875 1900 1925 1950 1975

Figure 9. Mean daily temperature at Paris Montsouris and Wolf number versus time. Data series are filtered using a backward moving
window of 11 years

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1628 F. PERRIER ET AL.

1987, the temperature rises sharply as already mentioned. Simultaneously, the averaged Wolf number starts
decreasing.
An efficient technique to reveal the correlation between two series consists in looking at the time variation
of the frequency content of the series to be compared (Le Mouel et al., 2004a,b). The amplitude of the
11-year solar cycle, as represented by the Wolf number, varies with time over the time span covered by
the temperature data; the amplitude of the harmonics (e.g. 5.5 years) is also expected to change. Figure 10
displays the evolution of the amplitude of the 11-year line in both Wolf number and Montsouris temperature
series. Figure 11 displays the time evolution, over the same time span, of the amplitude of the 5.5-year line
in both series. The similarity is now striking.
If such a correlation has a general meaning, one may expect that visual inspection would confirm it, at
least for particular time sections. For example, in Figure 12, the evolution of temperature in the Cassini
(Figure 12a) and Arago (Figure 12b) records shows an unmistakable parallel trend with the sunspot number.
Note that, at a depth of 28 m, for a value of the heat diffusivity of 106 m2 s1 , the diffusive phase shift

11-year line Wolf number

1.0

0.8 Paris Montsouris

Arbitrary units

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
1875 1900 1925 1950 1975

Figure 10. Intensity of the 11-year line, in a centred moving window of 22 years, versus time, for the Paris Montsouris temperature
and the Wolf number

5.5-year line Wolf number

1.0

0.8 Paris Montsouris

Arbitrary units

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
1875 1900 1925 1950 1975

Figure 11. Intensity of the 5.5-year line, in a centred moving window of 22 years, versus time, for the Paris Montsouris temperature
and the Wolf number

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 CHANGES IN SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND TEMPERATURES 1629

(a) Cassini IV data

Temperature (C) 11.8

Sunspot number
150

11.6 100

11.4 50

0
1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789

(b) AragoLavoisier data

12.30
200
Temperature (C)

Sunspot number
12.20 150

12.10 100

50
12.00
0
1815 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850

Figure 12. Underground temperature records (diamonds) below the Paris Observatory (depth 28 m) compared with sunspot number:
(a) data from Cassini. (b) data from Arago using the Lavoisier thermometer

is about 4 years for a disturbance of period 11 years. Note also that the corresponding attenuation, given by
Equation (1), would be of the order of 0.07 at period 11 years and of the order 1.5 104 at period one year.
While long-term temperature trends induced by the sunspot cycles could be observed underground, higher
frequency fluctuations of the sunspot number are strongly damped at the observation depth.

7. CONCLUSIONS

In this paper, we have shown that surface temperature records can be filtered by running averages or, to
compare with underground temperature records, by using a diffusion filter. In Paris, underground temperature
records are in good agreement with filtered surface records.
Surface temperature series show that this evolution can be divided into three phases. The temperature
appears comparatively stable till about 1900, and then rises with a slope of about 0.01 C per year till about
1987. After 1987, a larger slope of 0.07 C per year is present in all measuring sites in Northern Europe.
Part of the monotonous temperature increase after 1900 could be attributed to an urban heat island effect.
Note, however, that urbanization alone cannot provide a complete explanation. A similar trend is observed in
Uppsala and Stockholm, which have a population density of 43 and 4000 persons per sq. km, respectively,
and thus where urbanization effects are expected to be much smaller than in the Paris area and different
between the two Swedish cities. In Milan, where urbanization effects, associated with a population density of
7.5 103 person per sq. km, would be naively expected to be comparable to Paris, a smaller trend is observed.
We therefore contend, in agreement with previous assertions (e.g. Jones et al., 1999; Peterson, 2003), that the
temperature trend since 1900 reflects a global modification of the temperature distributions rather than purely
local urban island effects. After 1987, the faster temperature increase observed all over Europe, both at the
surface and underground, could not be attributed to urbanization, which had actually levelled off during that
period, in particular in Paris.
Temperatures observed currently in the underground quarry in Vincennes, near Paris, are greater than
eighteenth and nineteenth century extrapolated values below the Paris Observatory by 0.9 C. This increase
Copyright 2005 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 25: 16191631 (2005)
1630 F. PERRIER ET AL.

must include some contribution from the urban heat island. However, the agreement with the surface
temperatures, as discussed above, suggests that this contribution is not dominating. The lack of a significant
urban heat island effect in our data may be due to the fact, as pointed out by Peterson (2003), that the
quarry is located below the large Vincennes Park, which includes more than 150 000 trees. The bulk of the
underground temperature increase of 0.9 C may thus be tentatively interpreted as a direct confirmation of
global warming.
Time variation of solar activity plays an important role in accounting for the long-term evolution of
temperature. During the first two phases described above, the averaged Wolf number follows roughly the
corresponding temperature time series. An analysis of the spectral content confirms this behaviour in a
convincing manner for the 11- and 5.5-year cycles. However, this correlation between filtered temperature
and Wolf number turns into an anti-correlation after about 1987. The fact that the temperature increases while
the Wolf number decreases suggests that the recent steep increase of temperature might be of anthropogenic
origin, possibly an accelerated greenhouse effect. No prediction of the future temperature evolution, however,
can be reasonably attempted.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors thank L. Bobis, librarian of the Paris Observatory, for communicating the Cassini manuscript,
and the Inspection Generale des Carrieres and the City of Paris for access to the underground sites. They
thank M. Le Goff for the temperature records at Saint-Maur. They are also grateful to C. Crouzeix and P.
Richon for their contributions in the experiments. The authors also acknowledge the help and advice from
D. Camuffo and V. Kossobokov. Anonymous reviewers are thanked for enlightening suggestions and for
pointing out important references. This is IPGP contribution number 2043.

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