Forgoing the fallow in South Central Bangladesh:

A research and policy dialogue on systems analysis tools to prioritize

development interventions for cropping systems intensification
October 4th, 2017. | TIME: 0900-1600 | Dhaka, Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Food requirements in South Asia are projected to increase for at least four decades before they
plateau, with at least a doubling of staple crop production required by 2050. The genetic
potential for wheat, maize, and rice yields have however increased only marginally since the
1960s. As the scope for large yield increase is limited, crop production can be increased by
expanding cultivated land area, although conversion of natural ecosystems conflicts with
sustainable development goals. The potential for agricultural expansion in South Asia is also
limited because most arable land is already cropped for at least part of the year.
In the highly productive northwestern Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia, farmers utilize
groundwater irrigation to assure that at least two of these crops are sequenced on the same
field within the same year. Such double cropping has had significant positive influence on
regional agricultural productivity. But in the risk-prone and food insecure lower Eastern Indo-
Gangetic Plains in Bangladesh, cropping is less intensive. During the dryer winter months, arable
land is rarely irrigated and fallowed, or devoted to lower yielding, rain-fed legumes. Seeing
opportunity to boost cereals production, particularly for rice, Bangladeshs land use policy
makers have consequently reprioritized agricultural development investments in this
impoverished region.
Tapping groundwater for irrigation and intensified double cropping, however, is unlikely to be
economically viable or environmentally sound in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. The network
of largely underutilized rivers and natural canals in could conversely be tapped to provide less
costly surface water irrigation, so long as post-monsoon waterlogging is controlled and
managed, especially in polder systems.

Encouraging crop intensification in coastal Bangladesh however is not straight forward. Myriad
biophysical limitations, including soil and water salinity, poor drainage and waterlogging,
present consistent challenges. Poor transport systems, weakly developed markets, out-migration,
shareholder cropping, and overall production risk pose additional barriers to intensified rabi
season cropping in this region. In addition, not all farmers are the same different farmers and
farm types have differing capacities and interests in intensification, which must be accounted
for. These wicked problems call for new methods and approaches to study how and where
development investments and initiatives might target and sequence their interventions.

This workshop responds to these problems by presenting research that makes use of new
frameworks and methods in agricultural systems analysis to address these issues. Our goal is to
highlight research results and to stimulate discussion among policy makers, development
practitioners, agricultural scientists, and other stakeholders working in the region as to how to
address and overcome these wicked problems. Workshop outcomes will involve a short
document of recommendations emerging from post-presentation discussions, that can be
referred to and can inform future policy and development investment discussions. We will also
kindly request participants to evaluate their perceived usefulness of the systems analysis tools
and frameworks presented.

AGENDA and ACTIVITIES

TIME: 0900-1600 | VENUE: The Gardenia. Rd No 51, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh

TENTATIVE PROGRAM

TIME ACTIVITY
09:00 Registration, refreshments
09:30 Introductions (Sattar Mandal)

10:30 Sustainable crop intensification through surface water irrigation in Bangladesh?

A geospatial assessment of landscape-scale production potential

Timothy J. Krupnik, with Urs Schulthess, Zia Uddin Ahmed, and Andrew McDonald

Applying a systems analysis framework, we used remote sensing and available

geospatial data to identify agricultural land, detect the temporal availability of
freshwater in rivers and canals, and assess crop production intensity over a three-
year study period in a 33,750 km2 case study area in southwestern Bangladesh. We
combined these data with georeferenced and temporally explicitly soil and water
salinity information, in addition to relative elevation classifications, in order to
examine the extent of winter fallows and low productivity rainfed cropland that
could be irrigated by small-scale surface water pumps. Applying observations of
irrigated crop sowing dates and yields from 510 wheat, 550 maize, and 553 rice
farmers, we also modeled crop intensification production scenarios within the case
study area. We conservatively estimate that at least 20,800 and 103,000 ha of
fallow and rainfed cropland, respectively, could be brought into intensified double
cropping using surface water irrigation (SWI). Scenario analysis indicates that if
25%75% of the fallow or low-intensity land were converted to irrigated maize,
national aggregate production could increase by 1014% or 2942%, respectively.
Conversion to wheat would conversely boost national production by 910% or 26
31%. Irrigated rice is however unlikely to contribute >3%. In aggregate, these
actions could generate between USD 36108 million of revenue annually among
farmers. Intensification therefore has important land use policy and food and income
security implications, helping to rationalize SWI investments. Crop choice, water
resource allocation, and water governance will however remain crucial
considerations for irrigation planners.

10:50 Q&A on presentation, usability of research findings for stakeholders (Facilitated by

Helena Posthumus)

11:15 Tea break

11:30 Investigating farmers past practices and future preferences: A panel data analysis of
farming systems trajectories and choice experiments to inform agricultural development
investments in the central coast of Bangladesh
 Sreejith Aravindakshan, Timothy J. Krupnik, Jeroen Groot

The productivity of Bangladeshi agriculture is challenged by several ongoing and new

obstacles. Future agricultural productivity is undermined by increasing environmental
changes (including impaired irrigation and drainage, soil-water salinity and climate change)
and economic challenges (e.g., increasing irrigation costs, labor prices, and increasing
competition for land). With a projected population increase to 200 million by 2050, ensuring
food security in the face of these obstacles will require, among others, the adoption of
sustainable agricultural practices, alongside sustainable management of natural resources
including land and water upon which agricultural production is dependent. At the farm level,
approaches loosely based on sustainable intensification (SI), which aim to conserve natural
resources while sustainably boosting productivity and improving social equity have been
proposed as the way forward. In central coastal Bangladesh, farmers often fallow their land
or grow low-input opportunity crops during the dry rabi season, following monsoon season
rice. The Bangladesh Government has conversely requested over $ 7 billion of international
donor investment to support SI initiatives for reducing rabi fallows in this historically
underdeveloped region. Many interventions however focus on agronomic management
packages and irrigated dry season rice to replace fallowing and rainfed agriculture, with
less attention to other cereals and legumes, or other components of farmers whole farm
production systems. Nevertheless, the degree to which these development interventions are
successful is ultimately conditioned by individual farmers preferences and decisions.
Farmers intensification decisions depend on many factors, which shape their multiple
objectives that usually differ among farm and household types. Typically, farmers
intensification and irrigation decisions are driven by (1) farming system characteristics (farm
types, crop choices, and productivity), (2) farmer characteristics (preferences, resource
endowment, education, etc.), and (3) resource governance systems and market (institutions,
property rights, access to credit and markets). Changes in crop and farm management also
require farmers to invest time, money, and labor, which can be risky. Little research has
however been previously conducted in south-central Bangladesh to document how farming
systems have changed over time, and how farming systems types and farmers decision-
making processes may inform agricultural development policies. This research responds to
these concerns by presenting findings from panel surveys and choice experiments in
contrasting environmental regions of coastal Bangladesh, in order to: (1) inform policy on
how and what factors influence past farm development trajectories and how future farming
systems would look like, (2) to untangle farmers preferences for intensification options in
terms of crop choices, surface water irrigation and fertilizer attributes.

11:50 Q&A on presentation, usability of research findings for stakeholders (Facilitated by

Helena Posthumus)

12:15 Modeling perceptions of crop intensification and surface water irrigation: Farmer
and expert system understanding in Southern Bangladesh using Fuzzy Cognitive
Mapping

Jacqueline Hughes, Timothy J. Krupnik, Sreejith Aravindakshan, Jeroen Groot

(Presented by Lenora Ditzler)

As populations continue to rise in Southern Bangladesh, so too do demands for food

security and increased crop production. In this region, arable land is limited thus
increased resource use efficiency via crop intensification and surface water irrigation
has been proposed as an alternative to crop expansion. Many of these initiatives
therefore focus narrowly on technology transfer to increase annual yields through
double cropping. Nevertheless, systematic studies of farmer decision-making
processes and interest in development interventions show that stakeholder
 perceptions, values, and beliefs play a critical role in the transformation of
agricultural systems. This research was conducted to compare local farmer and
development expert perceptions of crop intensification and surface water irrigation
initiatives in south-central Bangladeshs polder farming systems using the approach
of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping to model stakeholders understanding of the farming
system and to simulate intervention scenarios. Surveys were conducted with farmers,
as well as development practitioners, local and international research institutes, local
government officials, donor agencies, and NGOs to assess the drivers and major
influences on the existing polder farming system the region. The resulting models
were then used to assess stakeholders perceived impacts of potential development
interventions, including for example changing market pricing structures, canal
dredging for water flow maintenance, and increased microcredit access and
agriculture extension availability. The objectives of this study were to identify (1) the
perception gaps and priorities between farmers and expert groups in the existing
farming system, as well as (2) differences in the perceived impacts of the above-
listed interventions. Additionally, through the presentation of these results, we will
explore stakeholder decision-making processes for addressing complex problems in
multi-stakeholder contexts.

12:35 Q&A on presentation, usability of research findings for stakeholders (Facilitated by

Helena Posthumus)

13:00 Wrap up of the morning (Sattar Mandal)

13:15 Lunch

14:15 Round table discussion on crop intensification policies (Sattar Mandal)

15:30 Facilitated discussions on the relevance of systems research for policy formulation of
land use and crop intensification (world caf, facilitated by the ESAP and KIT team)

16:15 Closure and distribution of gifts to participants (Sattar Mandal)

DESCRIPTION OF WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES

Workshop activities will include participatory exercises to understand the relevance and applicability of
these research findings for project planning and policy development related to land use and crop
intensification and for different types of stakeholders. The facilitated discussion also encourages
participants to explore how farm systems information approaches, such as those presented, can be
further developed to meet the needs of stakeholders to formulate policies or practices and to increase
the relevance of future research findings to meet organizational needs.

ORGANIZING INSTITUTIONS

The Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) was established in 2009 with a goal of benefiting
more than 8 million farmers by the end of 2020. The project is led by the International Maize and Wheat
Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and implemented jointly with the International Food Policy Research
Institute (IFPRI) and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Operating in rural innovation hubs in
Bangladesh, India and Nepal, CSISA works to increase the adoption of various resource-conserving and
climate-resilient technologies, and improve farmers access to market information and enterprise
development. CSISA supports women farmers by improving their access and exposure to modern and
improved technological innovations, knowledge and entrepreneurial skills. CSISA works in synergy with
regional and national efforts, collaborating with myriad public, civil society and private-sector partners.

The Enhancing the effectiveness of systems analysis tools to support learning and innovation in
multi-stakeholder platforms (ESAP) project is a partnership between the Farming Systems Ecology
group at Wageningen University, and the Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), both in the Netherlands. Funded
by the MAIZE CGIAR research program, ESAP project aims to identify research tools for systems analysis
that can be applied effectively in multi-stakeholder settings to strengthen actors interactions and common
understanding of the system in which they operate. System analysis tools have long been integrated as
a component of conventional approaches to development and stakeholder interactions, however these
are typically designed to be oriented towards objectives of researchers and the scientific community.
This project seeks to better understand how select SA tools can be adapted and implemented for use by
on the ground stakeholders in decision-making, fostering multi-stakeholder discussion, and promoting
innovation processes. The ESAP project has partnered with FACASI in Ethiopia and CSISA in Bangladesh,
as case study sites for understanding stakeholder interactions and the implementation of SA tools.