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# Demography

Exam 1 Notes

I. DEFINITION OF DEMOGRAPHY
-empirical, statistical and mathematical
-study of the human population
a. Change in Population (growth/decline)
b. Composition
c. Distribution of population in space

Formal Definition
Demography is the study of the size, territorial distribution, and composition of population, changes therein,
and the components of such changes. Hauser and Duncan (1959:2)

Statistical and mathematical study of the size, composition, and spatial distribution of human population and
of changes over time in theses aspects through the operation of the five processes of Fertility, Mortality,
Marriage, Migration and Social Mobility

## Demography in its widest sense.

-Application of data/findings in a number of field including the study of problems related to
demographic processes

## Static (STOCK) Dynamic (FLOW)

-Characteristic at a point in time -Changing, (time-frame, place)
age
Vital statistics
sex births (natality)
education level fertility
income deaths (mortality)
households, family reproduction
urbanisation marital status (marriage,
public utilities divorce)
information on the home and
its facilities Migration
ethnicity Emigration
Commuters
Immigration

Distribution
-Arrangement of population in space at a given time

Structure
-Distribution of population among its sex/age

Change
-growth/decline of the total population in one of its units
Demography
Exam 1 Notes

## II. DEMOGRAPHY VS POPULATION STUDIES

Population Studies
-Broader, encompassing not only demography but the less-mathematical study of composition/distribution
- population studies is typically much more broad ranging, with theories and hypotheses from other scientific
disciplines combined with demographic data and variables
-relation of demographic variables and other variables
-inter-disciplinary bordering formal demography and substantive discipline not necessarily social science

(formal) Demography
-demography a part of population studies
-mathematically more precise
- generally concerned with the development of mathematical or statistical models.

## III. SOURCES OF DATA

PRIMARY
CENSUS
VITAL REGISTRATION
SURVEYS (SAMPLE)

>generated for a particular purpose (e.g. YAFS, NDHS)

## + Timely, created to meet specific needs

- Expensive, Time Consuming

SECONDARY
Statistical Year book

## > Somebody else collected

> Further analysis have already been obtained
> Have been disseminated via reports, internet, workshop, professional papers

## + Save Time and Cost

- Collected for a particular purpose, creating bias, generally old data
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Sources of data (cont.)

A. CENSUS
-Major Source of data
- the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and
social data pertaining to all persons in the country or in a well-limited territory
-Complete count (enumeration) of the people and the houses in a given area at a specific point in time

Uses
-formulation of policies, plans, programs in sectors in health/education/labor/housing
-redistricting and appointment of congressional seats and other legislative concerns
-allocation of resources/revenue
-baseline information in establishing offices/factories
-determine customer demands for various goods/services
-supply of labor for production and distribution of goods and services
-provide info on demographic trends, population dynamics and human behavior
-inputs in small-area estimation methodologies for poverty in generation of poverty estimates

Features
1. UNIVERSALITY Precisely defined territory and includes every person residing within its scope
2. INDIVIDUAL ENUMERATION each individual is enumerated, the characteristics of each person is
recorded separately
3. SIMULTANEITY enumerated with respect to well-defined point in time and the data are in terms of
well-defined reference period.
4. DEFINED PERIODICITY Censuses are taken at regular intervals (DECENIAL)

## Who are included in the PH census?

-Members of HH
-Those present and whose usual place of residence is the housing unit of Household Head
-DE JURE
-family members who are overseas who had not been away for >5 years
-boarders/lodgers of the HH who do not usually go home to respective houses
-foreigners, excluding diplomatic missions and international organizations
-balikbayans expected to reside for more than 1 year
-Persons temporarily staying with HH but certain not to be enumerated elsewhere.
-(Institutional Population Census)

## History of census in Philippines

1570-1700s Spanish Colonial Estimates (500k)
1591 Encomienda system (667,612)
1600 Parish Records
1799 Christian Population
1877 1st Official Census (5,984,727)
1903 US Congressional Census Buraeu (7,635,496)
1918 1st census by Filipinos (by EDSA) (10,314,310)
1939, 1948, 1960, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2015 Modern Census
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Agencies Conducting Census
-Bureau of Census and Statistics
-PSA (NSO, NSCB, BHS, BAS)

## Data Collected / basic items in Census

Household People sharing cooking arrangement
-Based on UN Recommendation

-representative of the entire country -Expensive, Time-consuming, Large Staff Needed
-universal /detailed data at very small level -Every 5 to 10 years
-broader / wide range of topics covered -Far-flung areas may not be enumerated properly
-Takes time for data processing / year before
dissemination

## Collecting Census Data

-Planning Pre-testing training of field workers data collection field checking (spot checking / re-
interviewing to ensure quality) - receipt and control Processing of data (editing, coding, encoding, validation)

Method of Enumeration
1. Direct Interview or Canvasser Method
3. Enumeration of special group (nomads, tribal, people in inaccessible areas)
4. Non-interview method (from neighbors)
5. Sample Census (long form [10% of popn] vs Short form [Census])

Types of Collection
DE JURE (Usual) DE FACTO (Actual)
-all persons usually living in the household are -All persons present in the household or other
listed whether present or not living quarters at midnight of the census day or all
who passed the night at the HH
Methodological Approaches
- Register-based
- Rolling Census

## New Data Collection Techniques

- CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing)
- CASI (C.A. Self interviewing)
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Assessing Census Data
>evaluation of results
>product of evaluation:
-measures of accuracy
-identification of sources of error (census is prone to errors)
>Why assess errors?
-Guides improvements in future
-Assist users how to interpret results

## Types of Census Errors

>Coverage errors
Coverage error refers to either an undercount or overcount of units owing to omissions of persons/ housing
units or duplication/erroneous inclusion, respectively.
- Coverage errors occur when dwellings and/or persons are missed, incorrectly enumerated or counted more
than once.
-Duplication
-erroneous inclusion
-Omission

>Content errors
Content error pertains to the error in the characteristics that are reported for the persons or housing units
that are enumerated.
-errors in the characteristic due to incorrect reporting or recording or failure to report

>Non-response errors
occur when some or all information about individuals, households or dwellings is not provided.
>Response errors
occur when a question is misunderstood or a characteristic is misreported by the respondent, the census
enumerator or the Census Help Line operator.
>Processing errors
can occur at any stage of processing. Processing errors include errors that can be made at data capture during
coding operations, when written responses are converted into numerical codes, and during imputation, when
valid (but not necessarily accurate) values are inserted into a record to replace missing or invalid data.
>Sampling errors apply only when answers to questions are obtained from a sample.

## Methods for Measuring extent of error

>Re-enumeration of a sample
>comparison with independent sources
>Matching census documents with other documents
>Demographic analysis including comparison to statistics
>Analysis of census data for internal consistency

## Pre-dominant Census Evaluation

I. Post-enumeration Survey (Micro)
II. Demographic Analysis (Macro / Application of Demographic Techniques.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
PES
The direct method basically involves the carrying out of what is referred to as a Post Enumeration
Survey (PES). In a PES, a sample of households is revisited after the census and data are again
collected but on a smaller scale and later compared with that collected during the actual census. The
matching process of the two sets of data can then be used to evaluate the quality of the census data.

B. Vital Registration
-Live births, Deaths, adoption, legitimation, marriages

Civil Registration
-The continuous, permanent and compulsory recording of the civil status of persons and modification
thereof.

Vital Event
This is an event which has something to do with an individuals entrance into or departure from life together
with the change in civil status which may occur to him during his lifetime.

## Recording of Vital events

>Purpose:
-collect data on vital events
-understand demographic characteristics of different population at a different points in time.
>Universality
>Continuality

## +Captures nearly all events

-Limited info; does not talk about the population at risk

Recognizing the importance of reliable vital statistics for producing timely and accurate population estimates
and other demographic and health statistics, including the Millennium Development Goals, which are some of
the most basic requirements for evidence-based planning and efficient resource allocation, the Committee
supports the development of a regional program for improving vital statistics in the Asian and Pacific region
and recommends that the secretariat, under the guidance of the Bureau, continue to develop the regional
program fully in close collaboration with development partners. - UNESCAP 2010

History:
>Church: (Used by historical Demography) / Archived data (Spanish period)
>john Graunt: Bills of Mortality
>UN handbook of vital statistics

## Vital Statistics in the Philippines

- Live Birth - Infant death
- Cause of Death - Child death
- Deaths - Maternal death
- Fetal death - Marriages
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Live Births
A live birth is the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception, irrespective of
the duration of pregnancy, which, after such separation, breathes or shows any other evidence of life, such
as beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or any definite movement of voluntary muscles,
whether or not the umbilical cord has been cut or the placenta is attached. (WHO 1950)

Death
The permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth has taken place.
-Excludes fetal death

Fetal Death
A fetal death is death prior to the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of
conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, as indicated by the fact that after such expulsion or
extraction the fetus does not breathe or show any evidence of life, such as beating of the heart, pulsation of
the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary muscles.

Marriage
Is the act, ceremony or process by which the legal relationship of husband and wife is constituted. The
legality of the union may be established by civil, religious or other means as recognized by the laws of each
country
A special contract of permanent union between a man and a woman entered into in accordance with law for
the establishment of conjugal and family life.

Role of PSA
-Mandated by law to keep and preserve birth marriage, death certification of a Filipino Citizen
-Civil Registration

## Problems with Vital Statistics

-Completeness (under registration)
-Quality of cause of death data
-Timeliness

Why it matters?
-Cannot be assumed uniform
-under-registration: Higher in rural, poor groups, specific events
Unreported out of hospital births and deaths
-Late registration
-Bias Info

cause of death data: Inaccurate, High proportion of ill-defined deaths, Confusion between immediate and
underlying cause of death.

Ill-defined / garbage codes: Data not available, Poor communication channels lack of collaboration from
Medical community, Low quality of data
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
C. Demographic Survey
>sampling techniques are used
-current
-less processing time
-more data on particular area
+less expensive than census

NDHS
-A part of the worldwide Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program designed to collect, analyze, and
disseminate demographic data on fertility, family planning, and maternal and child health.

-Gathers information to estimate current levels of fertility, mortality, and migration, including the factors that
affect them.

-Provides helpful inputs to policy formulation and to monitoring activities and researches related to health
and family planning of both the government and private sectors.

e.g. National Demographic and Health Survey (1993, 1998, 2003, 2013)
PSA: FS, SOF, FIES. UPPI: YAFS Fleems, Hels

Population register
- an individualized data system, that is, a mechanism of continuous recording, and/or of coordinated linkage,
of selected information pertaining to each member of the resident population of a country in such a way to
provide the possibility of determining up-to-date information concerning the size and characteristics of that
population at selected time intervals (chap. I.A).
-Basic characteristics that may be included in a population register are date and place of birth, sex, date and
place of death, date of arrival/departure, citizenship(s) and marital status. Depending on the possibility of
proper linking with other registers, much additional information may be added to the single record, such as
language(s), ethnicity, educational attainment, parity, activity status and occupation. -In order to be useful, any
additional information must be kept up to date. If complete, population registers can produce data on both
internal and international migration through the recording of changes of residence as well as the recording of
international arrivals and departures.

## D. OTHER Data sources

CBMS (Community Based Monitoring Survey) -LGU
-An organized way of collecting information at the local level for use of information at the local level for use of
local government units, national local government units, national government agencies, non government
agencies, non -government organizations, and civil society for organizations, and civil society for planning,
program implementation and planning, program implementation and monitoring. monitoring.
A tool for improved for improved governance and governance and greater transparency and transparency and
accountability in resource allocation.

## E. Online data sources

Demography
Exam 1 Notes
IV. Analysis of Population Composition

PROPORTION
Proportions show the size of a sub-group of the population relative to the total population. They are
calculated by dividing the number within the sub-group of interest by the total population:
Pi
Proportion =
P

## Where Pi is the sub-group of interest and P is the total population.

RATIO
-Divide 1 quantity by another
-Descriptive (sub-group relative to another sub-group)
-Sex Ratio, Child-Women Ratio, Dependency Ratio

ratio = P1
P2

RATE
-measure of frequency with which and event occurs in a defined population
Numerator: Count of Events
Denominator: Mid point of population
-a measure of change in a population over a specified time period (usually a year).
-NUMERATOR: Count of events of interest (births, deaths, marriages, disease diagnoses etc.) that occur during
the specified period of time.
-DENOMINATOR is either the number of person-years of exposure to risk during the time period, or an
estimate of this. In demography, the mid-year population is often used as this estimate and is equivalent to
the mean population for the period specified.

PROBABILITY
-likelihood that some event will or will not occur to some group of exposed persons
-Prob of dying/ Prob. Of surviving

A. Sex Composition
-Biological
-by Male / Female
-balance of sexes that affect social / economic relationship
-cross classifying sex with other variables is significant in analysis
-For the evaluation of the completeness and accuracy of population counts
-Basic demographic characteristics which is extremely vital for any meaningful analysis
-Sex misreporting is NEGLIGIBLE!
-important indicator to measure the extent of prevailing equity between males and females in a society at a
particular point in time.
-mainly the outcome of an interplay of sex differential mortality, sex selective migration, sex-ratio at birth and
at times sex selectivity in population enumeration.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Techniques of analyzing sex composition:
1. Numerical Measures:

Masculinity Proportion
-Ratio of the excess or deficit of males to the total Population
-Ratio of the number of men to the number of women
-Percentage of males in total population
-The proportion of males in the total population.

## #of Males / Total Population x 100

50 = Standard Value
>50 Excess of Males
<50 Excess of females
Sex Ratio
-The sex ratio5 is the ratio of the number of one sex to that of the other;
-# of Males per 100 females
No. of Males / No. of Females x 100
if 100, equal Male to Female (Standard Value)
>100 Excess of Males,
< 100 Excess of Females
Masculinity Ratio
-Numerator Males
-% Males for every 100 Females

## National Sex Ratio

-more sensitive indicator of differences in sex composition because it has a relatively smaller base

Other Ratios:
-Sex ratio of deaths, Sex ratio of migrants, Sex ratio of population subgroups, Sex ratio at birth

Sex ratio at birth between 102 and 107 but declines with age due to higher male than female mortality

## Ratio of Excess or Deficit of males to the total population

-affected by the size of the population
Male Population Female Population / Total Population

The level of the sex ratios depends on the number of male and emale births and on the mortality of
the population. All populations have more male than female births, and so the sex ratio at the early
ages is expected to be slightly over 100 (103 to 106).
However, since mortality is usually higher for males than females, the sex ratio is reduced continuously
up to the oldest ages.
Sex ratios from current census can be compared to expected sex ratios based on previous census(es)
In absence of sex-selective mortality or international migration, sex ratios of total population and age
groups/cohorts in successive censuses should relatively stable from census to census

## 2. Post-Enumeration Survey To evaluate census data

3. Analysis of Sex Ratio in terms of population sub-groups by region, urban-rural residence, ethnicity
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
B. Age composition
-Most important variable in demographic analysis (Mortality, Fertility, Nuptiality)
-Important in measuring potential school population etc
-More complex has tendency of misreporting
-product of births, deaths and migrations rates operated over 3-4 generations
-Age structural dynamics includes fertility, mortality and as well as related changes in family planning and
social arrangements
-The use of age structure goes beyond demographic analysis to other important areas. Public polices aim to
improve the welfare of a population; population welfare in turn is determined and shaped by the needs of
present and future population;
- a populations needs and its potential are strongly shaped by its demographic composition- i.e. by age-
structural transition.

Age distribution of a population gives a record of the demographic history of that population
-Age distribution is sensitive to changes in demographic rates, particularly fertility and, for small areas,
migration rates
-In a closed population (i.e., no migration) the age distribution is determined only by fertility and mortality

## Collecting data on age (completed as of last birthday )

-Date of Birth (DOB), month / year of birth
-Combination of DOB and Age question
-The first part asked for the age of the person, and the second part asked for the date of birth.
-Designed in two parts in order to maximize both the accuracy and the number of people responding

## Types of errors in Collecting age data Deficiencies in Tabulation of Age

1. Coverage Error 1. Errors in single years of age
2. Failure to Record Age 2. Errors in grouped data
3. Misreporting of Age 3. Errors in extreme old age

Age misreporting
-may arise from error on the part of the respondent or from miss-estimation of age by the interviewer, may be
suggested by irregularities evident in indices or graphs.
Population pyramid by single years of age
Age and sex ratios
Cohort comparison
Summary indices of irregularities in age structure or in age-sex structure

## Age Heaping/Age preference/ Digit preference

-Tendency of enumerator or respondent to report certain ages at the extent of others
-most pronounced among population or population sub-groups

## Methods to detect extent of age errors

1. Index of Age Preference
-Estimate true number compared with the reported number
-assumes age distribution is linearly distributed
-If 100, no age heaping
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
2. Whipples Index
-To reflect preference of avoidance of particular terminal digit
-Essentially designed to detect concentration or heaping in terminal digits 0 and 5
-Applicable when ages are reported in single years
-tests heaping in the range 23-62

-Whipples index varies from 0 to 500. A value of 0 indicates that digits 0 and 5 are not reported, 100
means there is no preference for 0 or 5, and a maximum of 500 is seen when only the digits 0 and 5
are reported in the age data.
-The inference about age distribution based on this index is as follows: <105 = highly accurate; 105
109.9 = fairly accurate; 110124.9 = approximate; 125174.9 = rough; 175 = very rough.
3. Myers Blended Method
-To avoid bias in the index age/whipples index
-It can give the extent of digit preference for all the digits 0, 1, 2, 3... 9.
-It can be used to report errors for all ages 10 99 years.

## Analysis and deficiencies in Data

I. Present by Single Years
1. Measurement of age-digit preference
2. Reduction and adjustment for age
II. Modifying Census schedule (Schedule = questionnaire)
a. Vary the forms/used
b. Date of birth and or Question on Age
c. Combination to increase accuracy of the age data
III. Calculation of corrected census figures
a. Single year age may be adjusted by developing alternative single-year-of-age figures through
i. Direct use of annual birth stat
ii. Surviving Annual birth
iii. Use of Life Table (Balancing Equation)
iv. Use of Mathematical Interpolation
IV. Present only group data
a. Group data eliminates the irregularities that may occur in single ages
b. But question is raised as to the optimum grouping of ages for tabulations from the point of view
of heaping
c. Different census and different types of demographic data may require different optimum
grouping
d. Conventional / Decimal Grouping (0-4,5-9)
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Types of Error in grouped data
-Net under-enumeration (tends to cumulate as age band widens)
-Age misreporting
1. Re-interviews and record matching (case by case matching)
2. Measurement by demographic analysis (inter-censal/ cohort analysis/balancing equation)

Age-Ratio Analysis
Age Ratio

-The lower age accuracy index, the more adequate the census data

## UN age sex accuracy Index (1950

-mean of the differences from age to age in reported sex ratios, without regard to the sign is taken as a
measure of the accuracy of the observed sex-ratio, on the assumption that the age-to-age changes should
approximate 0.
-This method consists essentially in the computation of sex-ratios and age ratios for five-years groups of ages,
up to age 70. in the case of sex- ratios, successive differences between one age group and the next are noted,
and their average is taken, irrespective of sign. In the case of age-ratios, for either sex, deviations from 100 are
noted and averaged irrespective of sign. Three times the average of sex-ratio differences is then added to the
two averages of deviations of age ratios from 100, to compute the index.
The reported age-sex data for a given population is presumed to be accurate if the age-sex
accuracy index is between 0 and 19.9, inaccurate if the index is between 20 and 39.9, and highly
inaccurate if the index is above 40.

## Age-sex accuracy index

-In the absence of extreme fluctuations in the past vital events, the age ratios for all age groups should be
about equal to 100. The sum of the deviations from 100 of the age ratios for males divided by number of age
groups gives the mean deviation for males and the same procedure also gives the mean deviation for females.
The average of the mean deviations of males and females is a measure of the overall accuracy of the age data,
i.e., age accuracy index.
-Accurate: <20 Inaccurate: 20-40 Highly Inaccurate >40
Limitations
- Failure to take account excepted decline in the sex ratio
- Considerable weight given to the sex ratio
- Primarily a measure of net-age, misreporting
- useful when making comparison
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Analysis of Age composition
- Percentage distributions (compare numbers relative to another)
- magnitude of the numbers relative to another is examined
- conversion to percentage is necessary when comparing either numerically or graphically

INDICES
Two indexes can be used to compare between two percentage distributions of age groups;

## A. Index of Relative Difference

-magnitude of difference between two age distribution whether for different areas, dates, or population
subgroups, may be summarized in single indexes from the individual age-specific indexes
-Closer to 0, lesser difference of age distribution

B. Index of Dissimilarity
-Another summary measure of the difference between two age distributionsthe index of dissimilarityis
based on the absolute differences between the percentages at each age.
-In this procedure, the differences between the percentages for corresponding age groups are determined,
they are summed without regard to sign, and one-half of the sum is taken. (Taking one-half the sum of the
absolute differences is equivalent to taking the sum of the positive differences or the sum of the negative
differences.)
-Indicates the percent of one population that needs to be redistributed to have the age distribution of the
other
-Can be calculated for any two comparable percent distributions
-Does not tell which population has the older population
C. Median Age
- The most appropriate measure of central tendency for an age distribution is the median.
- The analysis of age distributions may be carried further by computing some measure of central
tendency.
- The median age of an age distribution may be defined as the age that divides the population into two
groups of equal-size, one of which is younger and the other of which is older than the median.
- It corresponds to the 50-percentile mark in the distribution.

## Age Dependency Ratio

-measure of age composition
-The variations in the proportions of children, aged persons, and
-The age dependency ratio represents the persons of working age are taken account of jointly in the age
dependency.
-Ratio of the combined child population and aged population to the population of intermediate age.
Proportion of children less than 15 and elderly 65+ relative to the population of working ages
(Pop0-14 + Pop65+)/ Pop15-64

Child-dependency ratio Proportion of children less than 15 relative to the population of working ages
Old-age dependency ratio - Proportion of adults over age 65 relative to the population of working ages
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Age & Sex Structure:
Population Pyramid
-Graphical representation of age and sex distribution
-Bar Chart arranged vertically, that shows the distribution of a population
-Shows the different surviving cohorts of people of each sex in the country.

-Comparing historical population age distributions for a country helps in analyzing data consistency. This may
be accomplished graphically by plotting the population in the various age groups by year of birth. Such a figure
reveals past trends of fertility, migration, age misreporting, and even errors in census enumeration.

-Pyramids with absolute numbers show differences in overall sizes of total populations and in number at each
age
-Percent pyramids show relative differences in population size at each age-sex group

## Types of Population Pyramid

Expansive
-populations that are young and growing.
-typical pyramid shape, which has a broad base and narrow top
-larger percentage of the population in the younger age cohorts, usually with each age cohort smaller in size
than the one below it.
-Typically representative of developing nations, whose populations often have high fertility rates and lower
than average life expectancies.

Constrictive
- describe populations that are elderly and shrinking.
-like beehives and typically have an inverted shape with the graph tapering in at the bottom.
-smaller percentages of people in the younger age cohorts
- typically characteristic of countries with higher levels of social and economic development, where access to
quality education and health care is available to a large portion of the population.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes

Stationary
- describe populations that are not growing.
- They are characterized by their rectangular shape,
-displaying somewhat equal percentages across age cohorts that taper off toward the top.
-These pyramids are often characteristic of developed nations, where birth rates are low and overall quality of
life is high.

## Distortions in age pyramid could be due to:

Under/over enumeration
Age misreporting (including digit preference)
Changes over time in fertility, mortality, migration

Age-Sex Distribution
-The distribution of a population by age and sex is one of the most basic types of information needed in
planning for the future. Any analysis of educational requirements, military needs, labor force projections,
family composition, retirement, migration, or voting practices, for example, would not be complete without
considering information on age.
-Age is a crucial component in demographic analysis as well. The study of mortality and fertility without
considering age will permit only a partial understanding of these phenomena.

- Persons of the same age constitute a cohort of people who were born during the same year (or period);
they have been exposed to similar historical events and conditions in the nation.

-The age structure of the whole population at a given moment may be viewed as an aggregation of cohorts
born in different years.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
IV. Population Change
-Differences in size of the population at different dates
-Increase/Decrease in absolute number / percent
Population Growth: When there is increase / decrease is possible
-Can be negative

## 1. Linear change: amount of change in a year / month

-Straight forward
- The population size changes by exactly the same amount b during each time period t
-constant amount of increase per unit of time

Pn = P0 + bn
where P0 is the initial population, Pn is the population at the
end of the period (n years later), n is the time in years, and
b is the annual amount of population change.

## 2. Rate of change: measures of the average annual rate of growth

-rate at which a population is increasing / decreasing in a given year due to natural increase and net
migration, expressed as percentage of the base population.

## a. Arithmetic Growth Rate

-comparable only when periods are of equal length
B = (Pn Po) / b
-arithmetic approximation to an average rate
r = (b / (Pn+Po) x 100
*midyear: best estimate, seasonaility
b. Geometric Rate of Growth
-assumes that the population increases or decreases at the same rate during each unit of time,
usually a year
- Geometric change is a type of change in which the compoundingtakes place at specified
constant intervals, such as a year, and familiar to reader as compound interest.
Pn = Po(1+r)

r = (Pn / Po)^1/t - 1
c. Exponential Growth Rate
-In an exponential series, the compounding takes place continuously (i.e., a constant rate of
change is applied at every infinitesimal unit of time).
-compounding is arbitrary in the limiting case the compounding takes place continuously.
Pn = Poe rt
-provide meaningful comparison
3. Doubling Time
-time it takes for a population to double
Pn = 2Po
Growth rate is inversely proportional to doubling time. (Lower growth rate, More/longer time to
double the population)
Demography
Exam 1 Notes

-Population change is measured by the difference between population sizes at different dates
-As time goes by, the population in an area can do the following: Grow by adding births or people moving in
the area (in-migrants) Or it can decrease because of deaths or people moving out of the area (outmigrants)

V. Demographic Analysis
-Trend Analysis
-Ratio-rate-probability

LEXIS Diagram
-Lexis diagrams provide a graphical representation of the relationships between demographic events in time
and persons at risk and they also assist in calculating rates
-Every demographic event is characterized by two numbers: the time (e.g., year) at which it occurs and the
age (or other duration measure) of the person to whom it occurs
-A useful type of graph that helps to identify the constituents of cohorts. Typically having a y-axis of age and
an x-axis of calendar period both drawn to the same scale cohorts can be shown as blocks moving at a 45
angle. Seemingly simple and obvious it is surprisingly helpful in identifying cohorts for mortality or fertility
analysis.
Lexis diagram can show the experience of a cohort in a particular interval
-can also show experience as they move on through life,

Cohort Analysis
-Cohort : group of persons experiencing the same significant demographic event during a specified brief
period of time
-birth, marriage, education
-includes observation relating to the cohort in successive years
-General approach to main problems of demographic measurements and analysis
-Better understanding and fuller explanation of annual change of the even understudy than period analysis
alone
-valuable way of structuring part of data for periods of developing projections of basic series
-useful in evaluating census data

## Real Cohort: Since Birth observation of cohort (longitudinal)

Synthetic cohort: Also known as a hypothetical cohort it is a pseudo-cohort whereby period rates are applied
to defined populations at successive age-groups and the survivors, or number of events produced, appear to
come from a real cohort.
-represented by period data combined in such a way as to reflect hypothetical experience over a span of
-The construction of the total period fertility rate (TFR) is another example age-specific fertility rates are
applied to a standard population of a single woman in each age group and the resulting hypothetical births
summed to give a measure of the number of births expected from the synthetic cohort of one woman moving
through different age-groups.
-The difference between a real or synthetic cohort is well illustrated by a Lexis diagram
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
Sources of Cohort Data:

Cross-sectional data provide an annual picture with respect to the event or characteristic under observation
by age or

Period vs Cohort
-Demographic analysis may use either cohort or period data.

Period Analysis
-Period data are events which occur during a set period of time, often either one year or five.
-Period data contains the demographic experiences of people of many different ages (in other words,
people belonging to many different birth cohorts). Many of the commonly used demographic rates are based
on period data, such as crude birth rates.
- Period data: type of demographic even which occurs in great number of years (involving many cohorts) but
which is observed during a specified period of time
-Quantitative description and analysis for the many cohorts observed over a period of time
Period data is cross-sectional, as it takes a snapshot of the current rates at a given moment in time.

+Easy to Collect
+ Period analysis can use the most up-to-date information and thus be used to measure current trends.
+Period analysis is useful for when we wish to show rapid fluctuations which are a response to social, political
or cultural events.
- The summary rates calculated from period data do not represent real life experiences. Over the course of
an individuals life the rate of occurrence of demographic events will change.

## Sources of Cohort Data

Panel-Study Longitudinal Analysis: Follows the same respondent over time
Retrospective studies recall a series of earlier dates
Disadvantage: recall data affected by deaths, dissolution of marriage and households
-Repetitive annual observations

## Stock and Flow

STOCK
-Number of persons at a given date, classified by v arious charcteristics.
-Stocks: one point in time (census time, 1 January etc.)
-Population stock is the size and composition of a population at a given moment in time.
-The population stock can be changed by population flows, and current population stock reflects past
population flows.

## -Stock data: Census

FLOWS
Flows: during a certain period (one year, five years, between two censuses etc.)
- Population flows are the demographic events of mortality, fertility and migration which bring about
changes in the size and structure of a population.
Demography
Exam 1 Notes
-Events, deaths/births excess to the population during some specified time period such as calendar year that
changes the size, composition and geographic distribution

## Flows (population) events (individuals)

e.g. birth, death, migration (total population), or marriage, divorce (sub-population)

## Flow data : Registration system

-in absence of good quality data, Demographic models are ued as tools for estimiatoin