Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 1
T O : Interested Parties F R O M : Global Strategy Group D A

T

O :

Interested Parties F ROM : Global Strategy Group DATE : October 10, 2017 POLL RESULTS — St. Clair is well - positioned for bo th Primary and General Election in ME - 2

RE :

Lucas St. Clair currently leads the race for the Democratic nomination to chall enge Republ ican Congressman Bruce Poliquin in Maine’s 2 nd Congressional District and nearly ties the two - term incumbent in a general election head - to - head . St. Clair’s small b usiness background and his role in creating the Katahdin Woods and Waters National Monument make a compelling combination for voters in the Democratic primary as well as the general election. T his is a competitive race in an Obama - Trump district .

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:

St. Clair currently leads the Democratic primary by a wide margin : In a four - way contest, St. Clair leads Jared Golden by 32 points ( 40 % to 8 %) with Jonathan Fulford (5%) and Tim Rich (2 %) fu rther behind. Golden has l ittle initial name rec ognition – only 14% of primary voters have an opinion of him, compared to 37% for St. Clair – and 45% of voters are undecided .

St. Clair’s role in the Katahdin monument is an asset: Three in four ( 77% ) Democratic primary voters (and 57% of general election voters) say their opinion has grown more favorable to the Katahdin Woods and Waters Nation al Monument over the past year. T hey are far more likely to say it has been good than bad for the region’ s economy ( by 61% to 1% among pr imary voters; 36% to 7% among general election voters ).

Trump and na tional Republicans are a drag on Poliquin: Though he won this rur al, working - class district in 2016 , Donald Trump is now underwater here (45 % approve to 50 % disapprove ) and Republicans i n Congress fare worse (37% favorable to 51% unfavorable). Even among the president’s base of non - college voters only 50% approve of the job he is doing (46% disapprove) , and among voters not registered with either major party

– 35% of the likely November electorate – h e is at 46% approve to 49% disapprove.

Poliquin is vulnerable , and hi s health care vote has hurt his re - election chances : Just 43% of voters in the district have a favorable view of Poliquin, while 48% are unfavorable. In a head - to - head wit h an unnamed Democrat ic challenger , Poliquin trails by double digits (37% for Poliqui n, 47% for the Democrat ). Against St. Clair, the Republican holds a slight lead (44% Po liquin / 41% St. Clair), b ut reading short, balanced, positive

statements introducin g both Poliquin and St. Clair lifts St. Clair to a 9 - point lead (42% Poliquin / 51% St. Clair). M essages pointing to Poliquin’s vote on the GOP health care bill – and his refusal to explain it to constituents

– emerge as highly effective attacks.

ABOUT THIS POLL

Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 625 interviews in total, including 400 likely 2018 General Election voters and 300 likely Democratic Primary voters (with Democratic primary voters weighted down to their appropriate share for the Novem ber electorate), in Maine’s 2 nd Congressional District between October 2 - 5, 2017 . The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/ - 4.9% for the General Election sample and +/ - 5.7% for the Democratic Primary sample. The margin of error on sub - samples is greater. This poll was conducted independently of any candidate or campaign.

NEW YORK WASH INGTON,DC HARTFORD DENVER CHICAGO

GLOBAL STRATEGY GROUP