EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGY 10 August 2010

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA BI-WEEKLY

„ Special focus: Kenyans have overwhelmingly voted in favour of the new Ridle Markus
proposed constitution in a referendum on 4 August. We believe that the positive +27 (0)11 895 5374
referendum outcome has positively affected the country’s risk profile. ridle.markus@absacapital.com

„ Zambia: ZMK has further potential to appreciate over the longer term. Dumisani Ngwenya
+27 (0)11 895 5346
„ Nigeria: Elections will be held in January 2011 instead of April. The closer election
dumisani.ngwenya@absacapital.com
date brings much of the election-related risk forward into this year.

„ Kenya: The Central Bank of Kenya continues in its efforts to boost credit growth.
www.barcap.com
Despite aggressively easing in July, we do not expect further rate cuts.

„ Markets: Currency performance was mixed in the week with the UGX ending 1.1%
firmer against the USD. The Kenyan equity market closed 3.8% higher w/w.

Special focus: Kenyan referendum – yes we can

Kenyans have overwhelmingly voted in favour of the new proposed constitution in a
referendum on 4 August, showing a new level of political unanimity. The new
constitution proposes several changes to the structure of government and also
eliminates the position of prime minister, leaving the President as the head of state and
government. Importantly, it also addresses the contentious land reform issue and has
built-in checks and balances to reduce corruption. We believe that the peaceful, free Currency per Weekly w/w % ∆
USD close
and fair referendum has positively affected the country’s risk profile, which has been
tarnished following the 2007 post-election violence. As such, we expect an improved AOA 92.55 0.0
political backdrop ahead of the 2012 general elections, while greater investor BWP 6.72 0.9
GHS 1.43 0.2
confidence is also likely to positively affect the economy.
KES 79.40 1.0
MUR 29.75 0.7
Figure 1: Improved political situation is supportive of KES MZN 36.95 -0.5
NGN 150.40 -0.3
TZS 1522 -0.1
83
UGX 2198 1.1
82
ZMK 4865 -0.3
81
Note: Week-ending 9 August 2010
80 Source: Reuters
79
78
77
76
75
74
Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10

USD/KES

Source: Reuters, Absa Capital

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 11

Absa Capital is a division of Absa Bank Limited

Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly
67% of voters voted in
favour of new constitution
Previous attempt to adopt new
constitution in 2005 failed
Several amendments made before
new proposed constitution was
passed by parliament
10 August 2010
Kenya entered a new chapter in its history following the approval of the proposed new
constitution during a referendum on 4 August. The final results, released by Kenya’s Interim
Independent Electoral Commission (IIEC) on 6 August, showed that 67% of voters accepted
the new constitution, while the voter turn-out was 72%. The peaceful nature of the
referendum has shown that the country has matured politically, despite the fact that many
of the contentious issues (such as land reforms) are yet to be resolved.
Figure 2: Referendum outcome in favour of adopting new constitution
Votes
Rejected Total no of
YES NO votes Votes cast registered
Total 6,092,593 2,795,059 218,633 9,106,627 12,616,627
% of Total 66.9 30.7 2.4 72.2 -
Source: IIEC
Kenya’s current constitution was enacted in 1963, when the country gained its
independence from the British, and has been changed several times, the last being 2001.
After further attempts to grow broader democratic reform and despite wide consultation,
voters rejected amendments to the constitution in 2005. The proposed constitution was
rejected by 58% of Kenyan voters following concern over how much power would be
vested in the president, the issue of land reforms and religious courts.
The new proposed constitution, which envisages a US-style government, was finally
approved by Parliament on 1 April 2010 before being subjected to a referendum. Apart from
having checks and balances to reduce corruption, the key changes to the new proposed
constitution include:
ƒ Government structures – government will be increased with the formation of a
Senate, consisting of 47 senators and each representing one of the newly formed
demarcated counties. The Senate’s role will be to protect the interests of the
counties, law-making, debating and approving Bills concerning counties, and
overseeing national revenue among counties.
ƒ Devolution of government – the establishment of counties means that some of the
central government’s power will be channelled to these counties, which the
government hopes will promote democracy and accountability. The empowered
counties will help with the allocations of state resources, service delivery and the
implementation of planned projects.
ƒ Elimination of position of prime minister – the position of prime minister was created
in the aftermath of the 2007 political violence. There will now be a president, deputy-
president and the rest of cabinet. The president will therefore be head of state and
government, but, unlike previously, will not be a member of parliament. The
president will be elected directly by registered voters during an election. However,
the president will have to get approval from Parliament to appoint cabinet secretaries
(previously the ministers were appointed by the president only).
ƒ Land reform – the new constitution allows for land, which had been allocated to
other parties previously, to be redistributed. The constitution promises the equitable
distribution of land through a national land policy. The 2007 election violence was
partly as a result of land disputes, and the government hopes to address this issue
within the new political setup.
ƒ The introduction of a Bill of Rights and a Supreme Court.
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Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly
New constitution will come into
effect after 2012 only
Adoption of new constitution is
positive for political risk and long-
term economic outlook
Trade surplus rises in H1
Investment in mining
sector increasing
Positive copper price outlook
ZMK to remain just below
5000/USD in H2, with further
potential to strengthen
10 August 2010
The constitution will only come into effect after the 2012 election but the government will
start working on the formulation of the various laws immediately.
The successful referendum has significantly improved the prospects for smooth elections in
2012, thereby improving the country’s political risk profile. That said there remains some element
of political risk as the court case at the International Criminal Court related to the 2007 post-
election violence continues and may still stir emotions over the next 18 months. Notwithstanding
this, the adoption of the new constitution has buoyed financial markets with the KES
appreciating marginally against the USD and the equity market jumping nearly 2% following the
provisional result announcement. Further out, we believe that the peaceful election and the
positive outcome will raise the country’s long-term growth prospects significantly with
investment and tourism (a key FX earner) likely to improve considerably. The US, following a
high-level government delegation to Kenya in June, has promised more investment if the
constitution is accepted, while it may also have a positive impact on donor flows.
In review
Zambia – Higher copper price boosts ZMK
CSO data showed that Zambia’s trade surplus improved in H1, rising to USD946mn from
USD519mn in H2 09. The larger trade surplus is the result of a surge in the value of copper
exports, which grew 42% in H1 10 compared with H2 09, which in turn, was the result of
higher copper prices (up 9% in H1 10 compared with H2 09) and output (+11%).
Domestic production developments and our expectation for copper prices suggest that the
outlook for Zambia’s copper exports remains favourable. In terms of production, FDI injection
into the mining sector has surged this year on the back of the recovery in copper prices and
increased foreign interest. The Zambia Development Agency reported more than USD1.3bn in
FDI inflows in Q1 of which close to half of this amount was towards the mining sector (these
inflows surpassed the total of USD1bn recorded for 2009 as a whole). Owing to the continued
mining investment, the government expects copper production to reach 750,000 metric tonnes
(mt) this year, rising to 1 mn tonnes by 2012. Data for H1 show that the government’s target for
2010 could be met with production already up 16% y/y at 393,089mt.
As regards copper prices, our Commodities Research team (see Weekly Commodity
Compendium, 30 July 2010) notes that given the close fundamental link between base metal
prices and economic cycles, there is potential for a large pick-up in base metal flows should
sentiment on the global economic outlook continue to improve. In particular, they point out
copper as one of the metals offering the potential for the strongest price rebound in 2011.
The latest forecasts are for copper prices to average USD6752/ton this year, increasing to
USD7763/ton in 2011.
Although data availability limits a broader assessment of balance of payment developments,
the H1 trade developments favour a strengthening in Zambia’s external balances,
supporting the outlook on the kwacha. After breaking below the 5,000/USD level in late July,
the ZMK’s rally appears to have fizzled out somewhat. Amid a weaker USD, the kwacha led
the broad-based appreciation in SSA currencies in July, gaining 7% against the USD,
underpinned by an upsurge in copper prices (+13% m/m in July). Although we project the
currency to remain around current levels of 4,900/USD in H2, we believe that the bias is for
a strengthening in the medium term amid a supportive copper outlook.
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Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly

Figure 3: ZMK supported by recent uptick in copper prices

10,000 6,000
9,000
5,500
8,000
5,000
7,000
6,000 4,500
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,000 3,000
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Copper (USD/t) USD/ZMK (rhs)

Note: Correlation between copper and USD/ZMK: 0.67 (period 2008-2010). Source: Reuters; Absa Capital

Nigeria – Elections closer and closer

Nigerian elections brought
forward to January, creating
new challenges for
electoral commission
Nigeria’s National Assembly passed the 2010 Electoral Act at the end of July, allowing for
general elections to be held in January 2011. The amendment requires that elections be held
120-150 days before the presidential term expires (compared to the 30-60 days stipulated
previously), allowing any legal disputes to be settled before the newly elected president’s
term commences in May. With the current presidential term ending in May 2011, the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced a provisional election date of
between 8 and 15 January. As a result of the date being brought forward, the INEC is set to
run a tight schedule in preparation for the elections. The completion of the voters’ roll is
expected in November 2010 while parties are expected to provide the Commission with
their list of candidates 60 days before the appointed elections date.

No decision of
Jonathan’s candidacy yet
Following the endorsement of the constitutional amendments, the jockeying for position is
likely to intensify in the next few months. In recent weeks, Nigeria’s Northern Governors
Forum (NGF) quelled part of the uncertainty with regards to incumbent President Goodluck
Jonathan’s potential candidacy. The NGF noted that wider consultation should take place
within the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as regards the party’s zoning agreement,
which requires that the presidential position be rotated between the northern and southern
regions every two terms. President Jonathan is a southerner and based on this ruling, a
northerner should be nominated for next year’s elections. The NGF accentuated that it was
not a constitutional requirement and also acknowledged the right of President Jonathan and
any other Nigerian to legitimately contest for the office of the president.

NGN may come under The closer election date has implications for Nigerian markets as it brings much of the
pressure late in H2 10 election-related risk forward into H2 10. Although we expect the NGN to hold steady around
current levels of 150/USD in H2 on steady oil inflows and support from the central bank, we
caution that the currency could come under pressure should a deterioration in the political
situation ensue. We are concerned about prospects of political and socioeconomic violence
ahead of the elections, particularly given violence during previous elections, existing ethno-
religious contentions and the volatile situation in the Niger Delta.

10 August 2010 4
Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly
CBK worried about credit
growth, although credit growth
is ticking higher
Upside risk to inflation low
We remain optimistic about
Kenya’s inflation outlook
10 August 2010
Kenya – CBK seeks stronger credit growth
The Central Bank of Kenya published the extended MPC statement on 2 August, which
provided further details on the committee’s deliberations on reducing the policy interest rate
by 75bp. The key motivation for the committee’s decision was the need to encourage
lending. Private sector credit extension rose from 12.2% y/y in April 2009 to 17.7% in April
2010, still well below its highs of around 30% in mid-2008. The MPC noted that although
most commercial banks reduced their base lending rates, the decline in the average lending
rate was only marginal. Moreover, the committee noted that deposit rates (currently 4.45%)
declined by a larger margin since the previous, increasing the interest rate spread. Against
this background, the committee was of the view that commercial banks needed a “strong
signal” to encourage them to continue providing adequate and affordable credit. The MPC
believes that this will enable the private sector to take advantage of growing opportunities
(particularly if viewed in the context of the formation of the East Africa Community
Common Market) that will further boost the economic recovery.
Figure 4: Kenyan lending rates lagging policy rate decline
9.5 15.5
9.0
8.5 15.0
8.0
14.5
7.5
7.0
14.0
6.5
6.0 13.5
5.5
5.0 13.0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Central bank rate (%) Average lending rate (%, rhs)
Source: CBK, Absa Capital
Although the MPC remains concerned about credit growth, it confirmed that the economic
recovery was on track, noting local market optimism on the growth outlook (the Bank’s July
Market Survey showed that 83% of private sector participants surveyed expected growth of
above 4.5% this year compared to 59% in January). In terms of consumer prices, the MPC
reiterated that upside risk to inflation remained low, with minimal pressure from
international oil prices and taking into account the low risk to food inflation owing to
significant food stockpiles. July CPI figures showed that headline inflation rose marginally to
3.6% in the month from 3.5% in June.
Our view on inflation is largely in line with that of the MPC’s. We project inflation to remain
in the low single digits in H2, rising steadily going into 2011. In our view, further
improvement in the growth outlook, particularly against the backdrop of the Bank’s
additional monetary stimulus, is likely to lead the committee to keep the central bank rate at
the current level (6%) going into 2011. The next MPC meeting is expected in September.
5
Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly
Inflation survey shows subdued
inflation expectations
We are less optimistic about
inflation outlook
Given benign inflation outlook,
we expect policy rate to
remain unchanged
10 August 2010
Mauritius – Inflation outlook subdued
The Bank of Mauritius published results from its June Inflation Expectations (IES) survey last
week. The latest IES shows that inflation expectations had moderated somewhat from the
April survey. Respondents now expect inflation to average 3.1% y/y, 3.6% and 4.3%,
respectively, for the 12 months to December 2010, June 2011 and December 2011. This
compares to December 2010 and June 2011 averages of 3.8% and 4.5%, respectively, in the
previous survey.
Our forecasts indicate that inflation may be somewhat higher over the medium term than
detailed in the June IES. We forecast annual average inflation of 3.1%, 4.7% and 6.4% in the
respective periods. Our slightly worse inflation outlook is the result of base effects and
expected stronger domestic demand. Although inflation is currently at comfortable levels
(2.0% y/y in July), the MPC of the Bank of Mauritius noted at its June sitting that there were
upside risks in the medium term, largely on higher imported and wage inflation. The
committee expects inflation to rise to around 4% in the next few quarters, which is broadly
in line with the IES.
In view of the latest inflation expectations, our view on monetary policy remains unchanged.
Although the IES reaffirms the steady pick-up in inflation in the medium term, we continue
to expect the committee to keep rates steady when it meets on 27 September.
Figure 5: Mauritius inflation outlook remains positive
14
12
10
0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
CPI (% y/y)
Source: CSO
Côte d’Ivoire – Election date set
Prime Minister Soro announced at the end of last week that Côte d’Ivoire had set 31 October as
the election date – the previous deadlines for elections, originally planned for 2005, have all been
missed due to various reasons, including the incomplete and disputed electoral list.
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Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly

Currencies and equities

Figure 6: Foreign exchange rates Figure 7: Equities

Currency Weekly close w/w, YTD Country Weekly w/w, YTD YTD USD
per USD %∆ %∆ close %∆ %∆ TR1 %

AOA 92.55 0.0 -3.7 Botswana Domestic Company 7416.4 -0.4 2.4 1.6
BWP 6.72 0.9 -0.8 Ghana All Share Index 6255.4 -0.6 12.3 12.1
GHS 1.43 0.2 -0.1 Kenya 20-Share Index 4666.4 3.8 43.7 37.3
KES 79.40 1.0 -4.5 Mauritius All Share 1742.9 1.4 4.9 4.1
MUR 29.75 0.7 -0.8 Nigeria All Share 25647.6 -0.1 23.1 22.4
MZN 36.95 -0.5 -23.0 Tanzania All Share 1172.4 0.1 -1.7 -13.5
NGN 150.40 -0.3 -0.6 Uganda All Share 1066.0 2.9 45.5 25.8
TZS 1522 -0.1 -12.0 Zambia All Share 2920.5 -0.5 4.5 -0.3
UGX 2198 1.1 -13.6
ZMK 4865 -0.3 -4.6

Note: Week ending 9 August 2010. Source: Reuters, Absa Capital Note: 1Total return. Week ending 9 August 2010.
Source: Reuters, Absa Capital

Figure 8: SSA currencies and equities

40 7.75 Botswana Pula (USD/ BWP) 8,000 1.52 Ghanaian Cedi (USD/ GHS) 7,500
99 Angolan Kwanza (USD/ AOA)
BSE - Domestic Company Index (rhs) 7,750 GSE - All Share Index (rhs)
96 Mozambique Metical (USD/ MZN, rhs) 38 7.50 1.50
7,000
7,500
93 36
7.25 1.48
7,250
90 6,500
34
87 7.00 7,000 1.46
32
6,750 6,000
84 6.75 1.44
30
81 6,500
6.50 5,500
28 6,250 1.42
78

75 26 6.25 6,000 1.40 5,000

Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10

82 4,800 35 Mauritian Rupee (USD/ MUR) 160 29,000

Kenyan Shilling (USD/ KES) Nigerian Naira (USD/ NGN)
1,800
81 34 All Share Index (rhs) Nigeria Index (rhs)
NSE 20-Share Index (rhs) 4,400 27,500
157
80 1,700
33
4,000 26,000
79 154
32 1,600
78 3,600 24,500
31
77 151
1,500
3,200 23,000
30
76
1,400 148
2,800 29 21,500
75

74 2,400 28 1,300 145 20,000

Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10

1,560 1,260 2,350 1,175 5,800 Zambian Kwacha (USD/ ZMK) 3,200
Tanzanian Shilling (USD/ TZS) Ugandan Shilling (USD/ UGX)
1,520 DSE - All Share Index (rhs) LUSE - All Share Index (rhs)
USE - All Share Index (rhs) 1,100 3,000
1,240 2,250
5,450
1,480 1,025
2,800
1,220 2,150
1,440 950
5,100 2,600
1,400 875
1,200 2,050
2,400
1,360 800
4,750
1,180 1,950
1,320 725 2,200

1,280 1,160 1,850 650 4,400 2,000

Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10

Source: Reuters, Absa Capital

10 August 2010 7
Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly

Economic data

Figure 9: Policy rates

Cumulative ∆ since
Country Current (%) Jan 2009 (bp) Last move Next move expected (bp)

Angola 30.00 +1043 01 Oct 09 (+500) 2011 and beyond

Botswana 10.00 -500 18 Dec 09 (-50) 2011 and beyond
Ghana 13.50 -350 16 Jul 10 (-150) 2011 and beyond
Kenya 6.00 -250 28 Jul 10 (-75) 2011 and beyond
Mauritius 5.75 -100 26 Mar 09 (-100) +25 in H1 11
Mozambique 14.50 0 10 June 10 (+200) 2011 and beyond
Namibia 7.00 -300 17 Jun 09 (-50) 2011 and beyond
Nigeria 6.00 -375 07 Jul 09 (-200) 2011 and beyond
Note: No policy rates available for Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia as monetary policy is conducted through open market operations.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, central banks, Absa Capital

Figure 10: Consumer price inflation, % y/y Figure 11: FX reserves, USD bn (eop)

Country Dec 08 Dec 09 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Country Dec 08 Dec 09 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10

Angola 13.2 14.0 13.9 13.7 … Angola 18.4 13.2 15.7 15.9 15.8
Botswana 13.7 5.8 7.8 7.7 … Botswana 9.1 8.7 8.3 7.9 …
Ghana 18.1 16.0 10.7 9.5 … Ghana 2.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 …
Kenya* 17.8 5.3 3.9 3.5 3.6 Kenya 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 …
Mauritius 6.7 1.5 2.5 2.4 2.0 Mauritius 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9
Mozambique 6.2 4.2 12.7 14.5 16.1 Mozambique 1.6 1.7 1.6 … …
Namibia 10.9 7.0 4.7 4.3 … Namibia 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 …
Nigeria 15.1 12.0 11.0 10.3 … Nigeria 52.7 42.4 40.3 38.8 37.4
Tanzania 13.5 12.2 7.9 7.2 … Tanzania 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.2 …
Uganda 14.2 11.0 4.3 4.2 3.2 Uganda 2.3 2.8 2.7 … …
Zambia 16.6 9.9 9.1 7.8 8.4 Zambia 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
Note: *Based on NBS’s geometric CPI calculation from December 2008 onwards. Source: Central banks, IFS, Absa Capital
Source: Statistics offices, central banks, Absa Capital

Figure 12: Real GDP, % y/y

Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E Q4 09 Q1 10

Angola 3.3 11.2 20.6 18.6 23.3 13.8 2.4 … …

Botswana 6.3 6.0 1.6 5.1 4.8 3.1 -3.7 10.7 36.4
Ghana 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.4 5.7 7.3 4.7 … …
Kenya 2.9 5.1 5.9 6.3 7.0 1.6 2.6 3.3 4.4
Mauritius 4.4 5.5 1.2 3.9 5.5 5.1 2.1 6.7 4.1
Mozambique 6.5 7.9 8.4 8.7 7.3 6.8 6.4 7.0 9.5
Namibia 4.2 12.3 2.5 7.1 5.5 3.3 -0.8 … …
Nigeria 9.6 6.6 6.5 6.0 6.4 6.0 6.7 7.4 7.2
Tanzania 6.9 7.8 7.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 6.0 5.9 …
Uganda 6.2 5.8 10.0 7.0 8.2 8.3 4.8 … …
Zambia 5.1 5.4 5.3 6.2 6.2 5.7 6.4 … …
Source: Central banks, statistics offices, IMF WEO, Absa Capital

10 August 2010 8
Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly

Auction results

Figure 13: Latest auction results

Amount offered Amount
Previous Date of next
Country Date Tenor Yield (%) (mn, local allocated (mn, Bid/cover ratio
yield (%) auction1
currency) local currency)

Angola 2010/06/09 91 17.79 17.79 … AOA 978 … 2010/08/11

182 18.65 18.37 AOA 2 896 …
364 20.52 20.40 AOA 7 015 …
Botswana 2010/08/03 91 6.96 6.97 BWP 3 189 BWP 3 189 1.0 2010/09/07
Ghana 2010/08/06 91 12.80 12.79 GHS 168 (Total) GHS 168 (Total) … 2010/08/13
182 13.28 13.35 …
364 13.50 13.60 …
2
Kenya 2010/07/29 91 1.70 1.73 KES 5 000 KES 5 104 1.0 2010/08/12
2010/08/05 182 2.00 2.00 KES 6 000 KES 3 651 0.6
2010/06/09 364 4.20 6.09 KES 4 000 KES 3 953 4.3
Mauritius 2010/08/06 91 2.84 3.01 MUR 700 (Total) MUR 324 4.8 2010/08/13
182 3.22 3.46 MUR 250
364 3.69 3.92 MUR 126
Mozambique 2010/08/04 91 13.10 13.11 … MZN 20 … 2010/08/11
182 13.75 13.63 … MZN 10 …
364 14.23 14.20 … MZN 30 …
Namibia3 2010/08/05 91 6.59 6.77 NAD 150 NAD 150 1.9 2010/08/12
2010/08/04 182 6.64 6.87 NAD 150 NAD 150 2.9
2010/07/29 364 7.08 7.34 NAD 100 NAD 100 2.1
Nigeria 2010/07/29 91 2.92 2.92 NGN 15 000 NGN 15 000 3.3 2010/08/11
182 4.08 4.08 NGN 40 000 NGN 40 000 2.8
2010/07/01 364 4.84 4.06 NGN 50 000 NGN 50 000 1.9
Seychelles 2010/08/06 91 1.81 1.87 … SCR 7.5 … 2010/08/13
182 2.53 2.72 SCR 8.8
364 4.09 4.07 SCR 8.8
Tanzania 2010/08/04 91 2.90 3.09 TZS 45 000 TZS 45 000 2.2 2010/08/18
182 3.74 3.89 TZS 35 000 TZS 112 429 3.2
364 5.98 6.15 TZS 30 000 TZS 66 377 4.3
Uganda3 2010/07/28 91 4.26 4.28 UGX 15 000 UGX 15 000 1.9 2010/08/11
182 4.94 4.78 UGX 25 000 UGX 25 000 1.6
364 5.16 5.53 UGX 40 000 UGX 40 000 2.5
Zambia 2010/08/05 91 5.54 5.17 ZMK 20 000 ZMK 20 000 1.4 2010/08/12
182 7.75 7.37 ZMK 20 000 ZMK 19 300 1.0
364 8.27 8.86 ZMK 40 000 ZMK 40 000 2.6
Note: 1Official auction date to be announced/confirmed by central bank; 2cut-off interest rates; and 3 effective yields.
Source: Central banks, Reuters, Barclays, Absa Capital

10 August 2010 9
Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly

Short-term rates charts

Figure 14: Short-term rates

Angola 16 Botswana 33 Ghana

34 Rediscount rate
91-day 15 Prime rate 182-day 91-day
30
29 182-day 14
13 27
24
12
24
19 11
10 21
14 9 `
18
8 Bank Rate
9 15
7 BoBC Rate (91-day)
4 6 12
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

10 Kenya 9 Mauritius Mozambique

16 FPC 91-day
9
8
8 15 182-day

7 7 14
6 13
6
5
12
4 Central Bank Rate 5
91-day 11
3
182-day 4 Repo Rate 182-day
2 10
364-day
1 3 9
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

13 Namibia Nigeria Seychelles

Repo rate 36
12 Monetary Policy Rate 91-day 182-day
12 91-day 182-day
31 364-day
364-day 10 91-day
11 26
8
10 21
6
9 16

8 4
11

7 2 6

6 0 1
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

17 Tanzania 19 Uganda 25 Zambia

15 17
20
13 15

11 13 15
9 11

9 10
7

5 91-day 7
5
182-day 91-day 182-day
3 5 91-day 182-day
364-day 364-day
364-day
1 3 0
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

Source: Central banks, Reuters, Barclays, Absa Capital

10 August 2010 10
Absa Capital, affiliated with Barclays Capital | Sub-Saharan Africa Bi-Weekly

EMERGING EMEA RESEARCH ANALYSTS

ABSA CAPITAL
Jeff Gable Ian Marsberg Jeffrey Schultz
Head of Research Macro Strategist Macro Strategist
ABSA Capital +27 11 895 5374 +27 11 895 5349
+27 (0) 11 895 5368 ian.marsberg@absacapital.com jeffrey.schultz@absacapital.com
jeff.gable@absacapital.com
Ridle Markus Dumisani Ngwenya Judy Padayachee
Africa Strategist Africa Strategist Technical Strategist
+27 11 895 5374 +27 11 895 5346 +27 11 895 5350
ridle.markus@absacapital.com dumisani.ngwenya@absacapital.com judy.padayachee@absacapital.com
Divya Vasant Bulent Badsha Gina Schoeman
Credit Analyst South Africa Strategist Macro Economist
+ 27 11 895 5345 +27 11 895 5323 +27 11 895 5114
divya.vasant@absacapital.com bulent.badsha@absacapital.com gina.schoeman@absacapital.com

BARCLAYS CAPITAL
Piero Ghezzi Matthew Vogel Koon Chow
Head of Global Economics, Emerging Head of Emerging EMEA Research Senior FX Strategist
Markets and FX Research +44 (0)20 7773 2833 +44 (0)20 777 37572
+44 (0)20 3134 2190 matthew.vogel@barcap.com koon.chow@barcap.com
piero.ghezzi@barcap.com
George Christou Toni Dang Daniel Hewitt
EM Strategist +44 (0)20 313 49588 Senior Emerging EMEA Economist
+44 (0)20 7773 1472 toni.dang@barcap.com +44 (0)20 3134 3522
george.christou@barcap.com daniel.hewitt@barcap.com
Christian Keller Andreas Kolbe Alia Moubayed
Chief Economist – Emerging Europe Credit Strategist Senior Economist – Middle East &
+44 (0)20 7773 2031 +44 (0)20 313 43134 North Africa
christian.keller@barcap.com andreas.kolbe@barcap.com +44 (0)20 313 41120
alia.moubayed@barcap.com
Vladimir Pantyushin Eldar Vakhitov
Russia and CIS Chief Economist Junior EMEA Economist
+7 495 78 68450 +44 (0)20 777 32192
vladimir.pantyushin @barcap.com eldar.vakhitov@barcap.com

10 August 2010 11
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