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Silver: Demand side factors and relative value may bring support going forward
Silver prices remain volatile in 2017 with speculators and sentiment at the helm. Despite this volatility, industrial demand side factors may
push silver higher to our base case of $19/ounce (oz). With a 13 year high in US Manufacturing PMI and elevated producer inflation cyclical
demand for silver may increase by year end thereby supporting prices. Additionally, silvers underperformance relative to gold may spark
bargain buying from retail investors aimed at a currently cheaper alternative to hedge uncertainty and an expensive stock market.
Platinum: Worst month since June 2016 may be attractive entry point
Platinum was hit hard this month as prices experienced the worst monthly drop since June 2016. This may present an attractive entry point
for investors, however, for several reasons. Technical price signals now appear positive, while platinum may benefit from any spikes in
market volatility. Given currently suppressed market volatility a mean reversion may boost prices. Furthermore, markets may be too
focused on negative stories surrounding European diesel sentiment and underappreciating China demand amid new emission standards.
1
For month ending September 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Gold: -3.12% (September), +3.11% (QTD), +11.10% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Gold price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Gold Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Augusts gains were wiped in September, with gold closing at $1,400 $120,000
Dec-16
Jun-17
Sep-16
Jan-17
driving up rates more aggressively and shrinking its balance
Nov-16
Oct-16
May-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
sheet quicker may bring gold to the $1070/oz level.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 09/30/16 to 09/30/17.
2011
2010
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2015
2009
2008
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 09/30/17.
250,000
remaining unchanged at 1.7% for the 4th consecutive month. 200,000
10Yr real interest rates were higher at 0.48% at month end. 50,000
-
US Dollar (USD): The dollar slowed its year to date decline (50,000)
2011
2016
2012
2013
2014
2017
2015
1 0.1% 9.4%
through August. Retail investors also remain absent the gold 60% 7 .8% 7 .7 % 9.0% 8.9%
8.7 %
market with limited purchases of American Gold Eagle coins. 50%
2
For month ending September 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Silver: -5.35% (September), +0.15% (QTD), +4.61% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Silver price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Silver Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Silver stumbled in September, closing down 5.35% at $16.7/oz. $22 $20,000
Average daily volume in silver front month contracts fell to $7.5 $21 $18,000
Dec-16
Jun-17
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 09/30/16 to 09/30/17.
backed silver ETFs saw net outflows of 352 metric tonnes (t) 2,000
2010
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2011
2014
2008
Short positions were reduced by 36% while long positions also 2009
dipped slightly by 1%. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 09/30/17.
80,000
to date, is well above its long term average of 59, highlighting 60,000
silvers attractive relative value compared to gold. 40,000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010
2012
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 09/30/17.
3
For month ending September 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Platinum: -8.66% (September), -1.62% (QTD), +1.00% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Platinum price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Platinum Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
platinum futures was higher this month with daily volume $1,150
Dec-16
Jun-17
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 09/30/16 to 09/30/17.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2016
2008
2009
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 09/30/17.
30,000
turmoil and scandals in the South African government.
20,000
Euro Auto Sales: Western European light vehicle sales in 10,000
August fell for the 2nd consecutive month, but rose 3.1% year
-
over year. Rising sales have supported platinum demand
(10,000)
despite growing negative European sentiment towards diesel.
(20,000)
Chinese Consumer: Platinum imports by China fell 18% in (30,000)
August but was offset by jewelry sales last month recovering
(40,000)
to 6.4% after the outlier 2.6% recorded in July.
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2013
2016
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 09/30/17. 2017
4
For month ending September 30th, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Palladium: -0.10% (September), +10.98% (QTD), +37.59% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Palladium price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Palladium Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
$1,000 $1,600
Palladium remained flat in September ending its Q3 2017
$950
rally up 11% and closing the quarter at $936.9/oz. On $1,400
$200
Given palladiums demand is most sensitive to the industrial $550
$500 $-
production cycle, palladium may see further support along
Dec-16
Jun-17
Jan-17
Sep-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
May-17
Feb-17
Jul-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Aug-17
with industrial metals in anticipation of a rise in US
infrastructure spending and recovery in global growth. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 09/30/16 to 09/30/17. d
60
Inventories: NYMEX palladium inventories increased 17% 5
this month by 7,873 ounces bringing total exchange 40
-
palladium stock to 1.68t, but remains down 26% year to date.
20 (5)
Futures: Net speculative positioning in palladium futures
fell 14% in September to 21,528 contracts (as of September - (10)
29th). Long positions fell 16% while short positions were
2010
2011
2012
2013
2016
2017
2014
2015
2009
2008
20,000
damage helped boost September US auto sales.
15,000
Market Balance: Expected continued supply deficits, stable 10,000
demand, and drawdowns in above ground stocks (inventories
5,000
& ETFs) may keep palladiums market balance favorable.
-
Industrial Metals: Palladiums correlation to industrial (5,000)
metals (0.57) is the highest among precious metals. The (10,000)
recent rally in industrial metals, which are up 10.4% year to (15,000)
date, has benefitted palladium demand and performance.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 09 /30/17.
60%
Supply: Global palladium supply deficits have persisted 50%
since 2012 making palladiums fundamentals very supportive 40% 7 8.3%
7 4.5% 7 6.3% 7 7 .4% 7 7 .6%
for prices. Deficits rose to 1.17 million ounces in 2016 and are 30%
expected to persist and grow to 1.38 million ounces in 2017 20%
according to Metals Focus, which may add further support to 10%
0.4% 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2%
palladium. 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: Metals Focus, ETF Securities. Chart data as of 09 /05/17.
5
For month ending September 30tht, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Important Risks
The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of
future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would
be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust are
not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the
Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These
investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater
volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Trusts are not FDIC
insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.
The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely affect
investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:
A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are
used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently,
its price and the price of the Shares;
Investors expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;
Currency exchange rates;
interest rates;
Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and
Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the
precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the
price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing
companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.
Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices, negatively
impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen. Failure by the
Custodian or Sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the Trusts.
The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any
insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the
Trusts precious metal that is not covered by insurance.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trust.
Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or authorized
participants may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 50k to 100k shares.
ETFS Physical Precious Metals Basket Index reflects the daily performance of a basket with the following components and ratios: gold (0.030oz), silver
(1.100oz), platinum (0.004oz) and palladium (0.006oz). Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index. Futures
contract = agreement traded on an organized exchange to buy or sell assets at a fixed price but to be delivered and paid for later. Long position = buying of an
asset with the expectation the asset will rise in value. Short position = sale of a borrowed asset with the expectation that the asset will fall in value. Spot price =
current market price at which an asset is bought or sold for immediate payment and delivery. S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks
designed to represent the U.S. economy. MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is an equity index that captures large and midcap representation across
Emerging Markets countries. Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark measuring investment grade, US dollar, fixed-rate
taxable bond market. The US Dollar (USD) Index is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies,
often referred to as a basket of US trade partners' currencies. The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition
of the hedge fund universe. Year over year = the percent change over a full calendar year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the
weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services; headline includes all categories while core excludes food and energy. South African
Rand (ZAR) = official currency of South Africa. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator
of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. Producer Price index (PPI) measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers
of goods and services. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary
market for trading metals such as gold, silver, copper and aluminium. NYMEX = New York Mercantile Exchange. Correlation is a measure of fluctuation
between two variables, Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. European Central Bank (ECB) = central bank for the
euro and administers monetary policy of the eurozone.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the
prospectus. Carefully consider each Trusts investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please
click here to view the prospectus.
ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium
Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust.
Maxwell Gold is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.
ETF001221 10/31/18