Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5

Second Round Prediction Model

A B C D

What if you got all the estimated Is it Theoritically

balance votes, what would your Possible for a 1st
# of Votes % of Votes percentage be? ballot Win?
CDC 441,839 39.2% 54.98% YES
UP 334,162 29.6% 47.91% NO
LP 109,345 9.7% 33.14% NO
ANC 77,298 6.9% 31.03% NO
MDR 74,470 6.6% 30.85% NO
ALP 17,796 1.6% 27.12% NO
OTHERS 72,250 6.4% 30.70% NO
Total Valid Votes 1,127,160 100.0% 100.00%
Total Invalid Votes 66,171
Total Votes 1,193,331
No. of Polling Places Reported 3991
Total No. of Polling Places 5390
% of Polling Places Reported 74.0%
Estimated No. of Total Valid Votes
from 100% of Polling Places 1,522,273.21
Estimated No. of Remaining Valid Vote 395,113
Share of estimated remaining votes
Key Assumptions
Since 74% of the polling centers have sent in results, we assume that 74% of the total votes have been tallied. Therefore 26% of the
1 votes are remaining.

Data retrieved from the 3rd Results Announced by National Elections Commission of Liberia (NEC) for the 2017 Presidential Elections.

Result:

Only one Party (CDC) has the "theoritical probability" of winning the October 2017 Presidential Elections of Liberia. However, the
CDC would need at least 81% of the remaining "un-tallied/ un-reported" votes to make a first ballot win! Therefore, a runoff/
second round is imminent between the CDC and UP.
 Column6

What is the least amount of the

Remaining Estimated Votes needed for
a 1st ballot win?
319,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

80.81%

s have been tallied. Therefore 26% of the

Presidential Elections.