Conference Board of Canada Report

METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1.
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian Metropolitan Economies
OUTLOOK AUTUMN 2017

Metropolitan Outlook 1: Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian
Metropolitan EconomiesAutumn2017
Alan Arcand, Constantinos Bougas, Henry Diaz, JaneMcIntyre,
andRobinWiebe
Preface
Together, Metropolitan Outlook 1 and Metropolitan Outlook 2 provide economic
insights into 28 census metropolitan areas in Canada.
Book 1 covers 13 census metropolitan areas: Halifax, Qubec City, Montral,

OttawaGatineau, Toronto, Hamilton, Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary,
Edmonton, Vancouver, and Victoria.
Book 2 deals with 15 census metropolitan areas: St. Johns, Moncton,

Saint John, Saguenay, Trois-Rivires, Sherbrooke, Kingston, Oshawa,
St. CatharinesNiagara, London, Windsor, KitchenerCambridgeWaterloo,
Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay, and AbbotsfordMission.
These publications are available at www.conferenceboard.ca/products/reports/

metro_reports. For more information about the forecast, please contact our
information specialists in the Conference Boards Centre for Municipal Studies at
613-526-3090 ext. 444 or e-mail metro@conferenceboard.ca.
To cite this report: Arcand, Alan, Constantinos Bougas, Henry Diaz, Jane McIntyre, and Robin Wiebe.
Metropolitan Outlook 1: Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian Metropolitan EconomiesAutumn2017.
Ottawa: The Conference Board of Canada, 2017.
2017 The Conference Board of Canada*

Published in Canada | All rights reserved | Agreement No. 40063028 | *Incorporated as AERIC Inc.
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Board, Inc. Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject
to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal,
or tax advice. The findings and conclusions of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the external
reviewers, advisors, or investors. Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation remain the sole responsibility
of The Conference Board of Canada.
CONTENTS
i CANADA
vi CANADA (FRANAIS)
1 Nova Scotia
6 Halifax
16 Quebec
21 Qubec City
31 Montral
41 Qubec (franais)
47 Ville de Qubec (franais)
57 Montral (franais)
68 Ontario
73 OttawaGatineau
84 Toronto
94 Hamilton
104 Manitoba
109 Winnipeg
120 Saskatchewan
125 Regina
135 Saskatoon
145 Alberta
150 Calgary
160 Edmonton
170 British Columbia

175 Vancouver
186 Victoria
Appendix A
196 Cross-City Comparison
Appendix B
197 Users Guide
Appendix C
206 Glossary of EconomicTerms
Appendix D
207 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas
Acknowledgements
The articles were written by:
CanadaAlan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies
Canada (franais)Alan Arcand, directeur, Centre dtudes municipales
Nova ScotiaJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
HalifaxJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
QuebecHenry Diaz, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
Qubec CityHenry Diaz, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
MontralHenry Diaz, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
Qubec (franais)Henry Diaz, conomiste, Centre dtudes municipales
Ville de Qubec (franais)Henry Diaz, conomiste, Centre dtudes
municipales
Montral (franais)Henry Diaz, conomiste, Centre dtudes municipales
OntarioConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for MunicipalStudies
OttawaGatineauAlan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies
TorontoConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for MunicipalStudies
HamiltonConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
ManitobaConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
WinnipegConstantinos Bougas, Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
SaskatchewanRobin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
ReginaRobin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
SaskatoonRobin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
AlbertaJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
CalgaryJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
EdmontonJane McIntyre, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
British ColumbiaAlan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies
VancouverRobin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies
VictoriaAlan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies
Canada
At a Glance
Real GDP in Canada is expected to increase by a solid 2.6 per cent

thisyearbefore falling back to growth of less than 2 per cent in 2018.
The economy is expected to generate about 260,000 jobs this year,

a10-yearhigh.
Housing starts are on track to surpass 200,000 units for the first time
infiveyears in 2017.
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca.

METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1
Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian EconomiesAutumn2017
CANADA
Real GDP Growth Current State

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Households remain the main driver of growth.
1.5 2.6 1.8 1.9
Shaded area represents forecast data.
i
Business investment, excluding residential
Credit Quality
structures, is set to decline for the third
AAA consecutive year in 2017.
Source: Standard & Poors.
Forecast Risk
i
Rising protectionism could lead to much weaker
growth in exports than projected in our outlook.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at market prices 1,753,683 1,770,196 1,796,178 1,843,676 1,878,769 1,913,310 1,948,248 1,980,857
(2007 $ millions) 2.6 0.9 1.5 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
Total employment (000s) 17,797 17,949 18,083 18,341 18,512 18,697 18,879 19,066
0.6 0.9 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Unemployment rate (per cent) 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.0
Personal income per capita ($) 43,820 45,281 46,214 47,257 48,508 49,807 51,117 52,497
Population (000s) 35,496 35,821 36,229 36,646 37,026 37,403 37,776 38,148
1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Single-family housing starts (000s) 75.5 68.1 74.1 82.5 76.8 73.6 73.0 72.5
Multi-family housing starts (000s) 113.8 127.4 123.8 128.7 117.6 117.2 116.4 115.8
Retail sales ($ millions) 510,478 523,922 550,793 582,604 596,405 609,550 623,236 636,188
5.1 2.6 5.1 5.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.252 1.266 1.284 1.307 1.334 1.362 1.390 1.419
1.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1

For each indicator, the first line is the level and the second line is the percentage change from the previous year; italics indicate percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. ii

Canada | The Conference Board of Canada
Canadian Economy Shifts Into High

Gear, but Slower Growth Looms
After two disappointing years, the Canadian
economy has finally shifted into high gear,
posting vigorous growth in the first six months
of 2017. Even with slower growth over the rest
ofthe year, the economy is on track to expand
by a solid 2.6 per cent in 2017.
The economic strength will be reflected in strong job creation. In fact,
about 260,000 jobs are expected to be generated this year, a 10-year high.
Unfortunately, Canadas current rate of expansion is unlikely to last. We expect
economic growth to decelerate to 1.9 per cent in 2018 and to average just
1.8per cent over the following three years, with Canadas population aging
andpoor productivity performance acting as key headwinds. Job creation will
also slow, with the country adding 171,000 jobs next year.
Households Keep Spending

Strong consumer spending and residential investment are the main factors
driving the sharp uptick in Canadian economic growth this year. Consumer
spending is set to grow by an impressive 2.9 per cent in 2017the fastest
increase in seven years. Next year, however, growth will slow amid weak wage
gains, a tapering off in employment growth, and rising household debt. The story
is similar in residential construction. After increasing by almost 5 per cent this
year as housing starts hit a five-year high, residential investment is set to decline
next year as starts ease to a level more in line with demographic needs.
Weakening growth in house prices is another factor that will hurt consumer
spending. The average homeowner saw the value of their house rise a whopping
$46,700 in 2016. This has supported recent increases in consumer spending as
households have spent some of their newfound wealth. Cooling growth in home
prices is expected to act as a drag on household spending over the second
half of this year and into 2018. There is also an increased risk of a significant
correction in the housing market, which could have a major impact on consumer
spending and the broader economy.
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. iii

Business Investment and Trade Sector Remain

Question Marks
With consumer spending and residential investment expected to slow, the
economy will depend on stronger business investment and exports to fuel
growth. In the case of business investment, a bounce-back in the first quarter
of 2017 was good news, providing some evidence that the economic recovery
is broadening across various sectors. However, the transition from an economy
that is dominated by the energy sector to one that relies more heavily on
the non-energy sector continues to take longer than expected, and a recent
Conference Board survey of business executives found that only 48.7 per cent
think this is a good time to invest in new plant facilities or capital equipment,
supporting our view that the recovery in business investment will be slow.
Meanwhile, investment in the energy and other mining sector is expected to
remain low as the sector continues to be hampered by weak resource prices.
The trade sector has also been underperforming. Outside of energy, exports
have fallen over the last year. This has been an especially poor performance
considering the weakness in the Canadian dollar over that time. Only a recovery
in energy exports (after the Fort McMurray wildfires slashed last years numbers)
has allowed merchandise exports to post any growth at all. Exports are expected
to fare better in 2018 thanks to stronger global economic growth, but there is a
risk that protectionist policies south of the border will cause us to downgrade
ourforecast.
Government Investment Spending to Remain Strong

Even with the federal government and some provinces facing large deficits, the
era of restraint that followed the public stimulus spending in 2009 and 2010 is
over. Government spending has made a notable contribution to growth since
2015 and will continue to do so over the next few years. The largest gains will
be concentrated in public investment spending, which is projected to grow by
anaverage of 4.6 per cent a year over 201718. Between the commitments
made in the last two budgets and in Canadas recently released new defence
policy, federal spending is set to increase rapidly over the next few years.
Meanwhile, half of the provinces have now balanced their budgets and have
thefiscal capacity to increase spending (although not at the same pace as
wesaw during the last decade).
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. iv

Canada | The Conference Board of Canada
Bank of Canada Moves to Tightening Cycle

Economic growth has been well above potential over the last few quarters,
absorbing much of the countrys excess economic capacity. With capacity
pressures building, the Bank of Canada has moved to a tightening cycle,
increasing interest rates by 25 basis points in July and in September, thus
removing the 50basis point cut it implemented in the wake of the oil price crash.
Further interest rate hikes are expected in 2018, but the Bank will move at a
gradual pace to give highly leveraged households enough time to adjust to the
increase in debt-servicing costs.
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. v

Canada (franais)
Aperu
Le PIB rel devrait enregistrer une croissance solide de 2,6% cette anne
auCanada, mais ce taux redescendra sous la barre des 2% en 2018.
On sattend ce que lconomie gnre quelque 260000emplois cette

anneun record en dix ans.
Les mises en chantier sont en voie de dpasser 200000units pour

lapremire fois en cinq ans en 2017.
Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca.

Canada | Le Conference Board du Canada
CANADA
Croissance du PIB rel Situation actuelle

(%)
h
2016 2017 2018-2021 2012-2021 Les mnages demeurent le principal moteur
decroissance.
1,5 2,6 1,8 1,9
Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr.
i
Les investissements des entreprises ( lexception
Qualit du crdit
des investissements rsidentiels) devraient
AAA diminuer pour la troisime anne conscutive
en2017.
Source : Standard & Poors.
Risque conjoncturel
i
Sous leffet de la monte du protectionnisme,
la croissance des exportations pourrait tre
beaucoup moins leve que prvu.
Indicateurs conomiques
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
PIB rel au prix du march 1 753 683 1 770 196 1 796 178 1 843 676 1 878 769 1 913 310 1 948 248 1 980 857
(M$ de 2007) 2,6 0,9 1,5 2,6 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,7
Nombre total demplois (milliers) 17 797 17 949 18 083 18 341 18 512 18 697 18 879 19 066
0,6 0,9 0,7 1,4 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,0
Taux de chmage (%) 6,9 6,9 7,0 6,6 6,4 6,3 6,1 6,0
Revenu personnel par habitant ($) 43 820 45 281 46 214 47 257 48 508 49 807 51 117 52 497
Population (milliers) 35 496 35 821 36 229 36 646 37 026 37 403 37 776 38 148
1,1 0,9 1,1 1,2 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Mises en chantier 75,5 68,1 74,1 82,5 76,8 73,6 73,0 72,5
logements individuels (milliers)
logements collectifs (milliers)
Ventes au dtail (M$) 510 478 523 922 550 793 582 604 596 405 609 550 623 236 636 188
5,1 2,6 5,1 5,8 2,4 2,2 2,2 2,1
IPC (2002 = 1,0) 1,252 1,266 1,284 1,307 1,334 1,362 1,390 1,419
1,9 1,1 1,4 1,9 2,0 2,2 2,1 2,1

Pour chaque indicateur, la premire ligne indique le niveau et la deuxime, la variation en pourcentage par rapport la priode prcdente;
la variation en pourcentage est indique en italique.
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada; Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL.
Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. vii

MTROPOLITAINE 1
Perspectives conomiques pour 13 conomies canadiennes Lautomne2017
Lconomie canadienne passe

une vitesse suprieure, mais
unralentissement se profile
Aprs deux annes dcevantes, lconomie
canadienne est finalement passe une vitesse
suprieure, affichant une croissance vigoureuse
au cours du premier semestre de 2017. Mme si
la croissance ralentit durant le reste de lanne,
lconomie est bien partie pour enregistrer une
croissance solide de 2,6% en 2017.
Cette vigueur conomique se traduira par la cration de nombreux emplois.
Defait, environ 260000emplois devraient voir le jour cette anne un record en
dix ans. Malheureusement, il est peu probable que le taux dexpansion actuelse
maintienne. Nous anticipons un ralentissement de la croissance conomique,
qui devrait stablir 1,9en 2018 et 1,8% en moyenne au cours des
troisannes suivantes, en raison du vieillissement de la population canadienne
et des mauvais rsultats en matire de productivit. La cration demplois aussi
ralentira 171000emplois seront crs au Canada lan prochain.
Les mnages continuent de dpenser

Les fortes dpenses des consommateurs et les importants investissements
rsidentiels sont les principaux facteurs lorigine du renouveau conomique
canadien de cette anne. Les dpenses de consommation devraient crotre
un taux impressionnant de 2,9% en 2017, soit le taux le plus rapide en sept ans.
Lan prochain, toutefois, la croissance flchira en raison des faibles hausses
salariales, dune croissance infrieure de lemploi et de lendettement accru
des mnages. La situation sera semblable dans la construction rsidentielle.
Aprs avoir augment de prs de 5% cette anne le nombre de mises en
chantier tant au plus haut en cinqans , linvestissement rsidentiel devrait
diminuer lan prochain, alors que les mises en chantier retrouveront un niveau
correspondant mieux aux besoins dmographiques.
Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. viii

Canada | Le Conference Board du Canada
Le flchissement des prix des maisons freinera aussi les dpenses de

consommation. En 2016, les propritaires ont, en moyenne, vu la valeur de leur
maison faire un bond spectaculaire de 46700$, ce qui a soutenu les rcentes
hausses au chapitre des dpenses de consommation, les mnages dpensant
une partie de leurs nouveaux avoirs. Cependant, on prvoit que la progression
plus lente du prix des maisons entranera une rduction des dpenses de
consommation au cours du second semestre de lanne et jusquen 2018.
Lerisque dune correction importante du march de lhabitation sest galement
accru, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact majeur sur les dpenses de consommation
et lconomie en gnral.
Les investissements des entreprises et le secteur

ducommerce: les interrogations demeurent
Comme on sattend un ralentissement des dpenses de consommation et des
investissements rsidentiels, lconomie devra compter sur une intensification
des investissements des entreprises et des exportations pour alimenter
sa croissance. Le rebond des investissements des entreprises observ au
premier trimestre de 2017 tait encourageant, puisquil semblait indiquer que
la reprise conomique allait slargir divers secteurs. Toutefois, le passage
dune conomie domine par le secteur de lnergie une tourne davantage
vers dautres secteurs continue de prendre plus de temps que prvu. Selon
une enqute rcente du Conference Board auprs des chefs dentreprise,
seulement 48,7% dentre eux pensent que cest le bon moment dinvestir dans
de nouvelles installations ou du matriel et de loutillage, ce qui corrobore notre
point de vue selon lequel la reprise des investissements des entreprises sera
lente. Entretemps, linvestissement dans le secteur de lnergie et des autres
ressources miniresdevrait demeurer faible, ce dernier continuant dtre ralenti
par la faiblesse des prix des ressources.
Le secteur du commerce extrieur a galement fait mauvaise figure.Endehors

de lnergie, les exportations ont diminu au cours de la dernire anne.
Cesrsultats laissent particulirement dsirer compte tenu de la faiblesse
dela devise canadienne durant cette priode. Seule une remonte des
exportations dnergie (dont la performance lan dernier a t lourdement
compromise par les feux de fort Fort McMurray) a permis aux exportations
demarchandises dafficher une croissance. Les exportations devraient
Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. ix

NOTE DE CONJONCTURE MTROPOLITAINE 1
Aperu de la situation conomique de 13 conomies canadiennes Lautomne2017
progresser en 2018 grce une croissance conomique mondiale revigore,

mais les politiques protectionnistes amricaines pourraient nous amener revoir
nos prvisions la baisse.
Linvestissement publique demeurera vigoureux

Mme si le gouvernement fdral et certains gouvernements provinciaux font
face dimportants dficits, la priode daustrit qui a suivi les programmes
publics de relance en 2009 et en 2010 est termine. Les dpenses publiques
ont contribu de faon importante la croissance depuis 2015 et continueront
de le faire au cours des prochaines annes. Les gains les plus importants
sobserveront surtout du ct des dpenses dinvestissement, qui devraient
augmenter en moyenne de 4,6% par anne en 2017-2018. Compte tenu des
engagements pris dans les deux derniers budgets et de la nouvelle politique
dedfense dvoile rcemment par le Canada, les dpenses fdrales
devraient saccrotre rapidement ces prochaines annes. Entretemps, la
moiti des provinces ont russi quilibrer leur budget et sont maintenant
enmesure daccrotre leurs dpenses (mais pas au mme rythme que durant
laderniredcennie).
La Banque du Canada entame un cycle

deresserrement
La croissance conomique, qui a de loin dpass son potentiel au cours des
derniers trimestres, a absorb une grande partie de notre capacit conomique
excdentaire. Face laugmentation des pressions exerces sur la capacit de
production, la Banque du Canada a entam un cycle de resserrement et hauss
les taux dintrt de 25points de base en juillet et en septembre, liminant du
coup la baisse de 50points de base quelle avait opre dans le sillage de
leffondrement des cours du ptrole. De nouvelles hausses des taux dintrt
sont attendues en 2018, mais la Banque procdera de faon graduelle afin de
permettre aux mnages fortement endetts de sadapter la hausse des frais
de service de la dette.
Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. x

Nova Scotia
Summary
Nova Scotias economy is among the weakest in Canada this year. Real
GDP growth of just 0.3per cent is expected for this year and 1.2per cent
fornextyear.
Employment growth will be limited over the next few years, despite improving
economic conditions, because of stagnant labour force growth.
Business investment is set to decline next year as work on the Nova Centre
andthe Maritime Link transmission project comes to an end late in 2017.

NOVA SCOTIA

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Growth in the manufacturing sector is largely
dueto shipbuilding in Halifax.
0.9 0.3 1.2 0.6
i
The primary sector is contributing very little
Credit Quality
to economic growth as offshore natural gas
A+ reservesdwindle.
Forecast Risk
h
The cancellation of the Pacific NorthWest LNG
project in British Columbia might attract interest
inNova Scotias offshore natural gas reserves.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real GDP at basic prices 32,243 32,560 32,866 32,956 33,339 33,742 34,130 34,571
(2007 $ millions) 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3
Total employment (000s) 448 448 446 449 450 451 450 451
1.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Population (000s) 944 944 949 954 958 961 964 967
0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
2.7 0.2 4.6 3.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.1
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.288 1.293 1.309 1.324 1.350 1.380 1.409 1.438
1.7 0.4 1.2 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 2

Nova Scotia | The Conference Board of Canada
Getting Old
Nova Scotias economy is expected to be among
the weakest in Canada over this year and next,
as the rapidly aging population will hold back
economic growth. Overall, GDP growth of just
0.3per cent is forecast for this year and 1.2per
cent for next year.
One of the bright spots in the province is the manufacturing sector.
Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 3.6per cent next year, as
thefirst of six Arctic and offshore patrol ships for the Royal Canadian Navy
is slated for delivery in 2018. In addition, Michelin is undergoing a two-year
expansion at its Grafton plant to adapt to stronger demand for winter tires.
The manufacturing sector will also benefit from a rebound in the fishing sector
through its seafood processing activities. However, the other goods-producing
industries are struggling.
The primary sector will provide very little economic growth to the province, as
both offshore natural gas production sites are scheduled to shut down. As well,
cuts to shrimp quotas are causing the fishing sector to decline by 4.2per cent
this year. But conditions in the sector are forecast to improve in 2018, thanks
tohealthy demand for seafood products in the United States and Asia.
Much of the Construction Sector Losing Steam

Builders are expected to reduce housing starts from 4,168units in 2017 to
3,501 units in 2018 as the aging population reduces the demand for housing.
Meanwhile, real business investment in non-residential structures will decline by
6.6per cent in 2018 as work on major projects nears completion. For instance,
the $500-million Nova Centre and the $1.7-billion Maritime Link transmission
project are both expected to be fully operational by the end of this year. Although
the Maritime Link transmission project is on time and on budget, the Muskrat
Falls hydroelectric generating project is delayed and over budget. However,
the link can transport electricity in both directions and therefore could be
used before Muskrat Falls is complete to bring electricity from Nova Scotia
to Newfoundland and Labrador. Depressed market conditions in the natural

gas sector are also making companies reluctant to make the large capital
investments required to bring new projects to life. Shell Canada has sealed
itsexploration wells, while BP is delaying exploration activities until 2018.
Still, real investment by governments is expected to increase by 7.6per cent in

2018 as the first phase of the federal infrastructure stimulus spending plan kicks
in. Nova Scotia will receive an anticipated $120million, most of which will be
allocated to transit improvements in the Halifax Regional Municipality.
Chart 1
Industry Outlook, 201721
(average annual compound growth rate)
Non-commercial services 0.2

Personal services 0.8
Wholesale and retail trade 1.3
Transportation and warehousing 0.7
Office 1.5
Industrial 0.6
Total 1.0
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Small Gains in Employment

Conditions in Nova Scotias labour markets have been improving since the
final months of 2016, and around 3,100 jobs are expected to be added to Nova
Scotias economy this year. But growth in employment is projected to slow over
the next few years because of stagnant labour force growth due to the aging
population leaving the workforce. Overall, employment growth will be limited to
0.7per cent this year and remain flat through 2021. Nova Scotias unemployment
rate is expected to remain at about 8.3per cent over the forecast period.

Nova Scotia | The Conference Board of Canada
Chart 2
Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0)
Nova Scotia Canada

Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Household consumption will reflect employment patterns. Real household

consumption, combined with healthy increases in wages and salaries, is
forecast to increase by 1.8per cent this year. Although household disposable
income should benefit from fiscal measures at both federal and provincial levels,
household consumption will gradually slow over the next few years.

Halifax
Summary
Halifaxs economy is expected to grow by 1.4per cent this year, close to the
1.5per cent increase seen in 2015 and 2016.
Employment growth will be basically flat this year, but we expect it to accelerate
at a healthy pace in 2018.
The regions unemployment rate will climb to 6.6per cent this year as labour
force growth outpaces the marginal gain in employment.

Halifax | The Conference Board of Canada
HALIFAX
Real GDP Growth and Ranking Current State

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Work on the Artic patrol ships at the Halifax
Shipyard continues to help drive the regions
1.5 1.4 2.1 1.5
manufacturing sector.
Out of 13 CMAs #8 #13 #7 #13
h
Consumers are spending in spite of a weak
jobmarket, helping to boost wholesale and
Credit Quality A+ retailtrade.
Relative Cost of Shelter Forecast Risk

(versus national average)
2016
i
Slowing population increases could constrain
Homeownership 0.59 theHalifax economys growth potential over the
next few years.
Rental 1.10
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0
0.4 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1
1.3 3.0 1.5 0.7 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.5
Population (000s) 414 418 426 434 440 446 451 456
0.9 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0
Total housing starts 1,757 2,599 2,305 2,648 2,535 2,442 2,371 2,310
2.1 0.8 5.3 4.5 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.4
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.275 1.282 1.298 1.314 1.340 1.370 1.399 1.428
1.8 0.6 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1


Slow and Steady

Halifaxs economy remains stuck on a slow
and stable growth path. Real GDP growth is
expected to reach 1.4per cent in 2017, similar
to the 1.5per cent increases in each of the past
two years. Still, Halifax continues to outperform
the rest of Nova Scotia, which is expected to
record meagre economic growth of just 0.3 per
cent this year, continuing a string of sub-one per
cent advances that goes back to 2011.
The manufacturing sector will remain one of the key contributors to growth
in Halifax this year, thanks to ongoing shipbuilding work. In contrast, output
in the remaining two goods sectorsthe primary and utilities sector and
constructionis expected to contract. Production declines at offshore natural
gas wells will reduce output in the primary and utilities sector for the third year
in a row, while the construction sector will be hurt by the end of some major
non-residential developments. Meanwhile, growth in Halifaxs services sector
is expected to reach nearly 2.0per cent and thus outpace its goods sector
counterpart for the seventh consecutive year. This years expansion has been
driven by healthy gains in wholesale and retail trade, in finance, insurance, and
real estate, and in business services.
The local job market has put up disappointing numbers this year. In fact,
employment growth is expected to reach just 0.1per cent in 2017. At the same
time, higher migration numbers are working to boost not only population growth
but also the regions labour force. As a result, Halifaxs unemployment rate is
ontrack to rise to 6.6per cent this year, up from 6.2per cent in 2016.
Thankfully, activity in the Halifax economy is expected to pick up steam next

year, with growth forecast to hit 2.2 per cent, the strongest gain since 2011.
The economy will get a boost from a rebound in the construction sector,
accompanied by continued healthy gains in manufacturing and across the
services sector. Unfortunately, the primary and utilities sector will remain akey

headwind to economic growth. Still, the stronger economy will translate into
much healthier job growth of 1.5per cent, which in turn will help push the
unemployment rate down to 6.3per cent.
Healthy Manufacturing Offsets Weak Primary and

Utilities Sector
Output in Halifaxs primary and utilities sector has fallen in five of the past
sixyears. These declines have been due in large part to a maturing offshore
natural gas sector, with both the Sable and Deep Panuke sites entering their
final phases. Further declines are expected for this sector in 2017 and 2018
as well; the current outlook calls for a 5.7per cent decline this year and an
additional 2.4per cent drop in 2018.
Luckily, the manufacturing sector has fared much better over the past couple of
years. Output grew by an average of 2.9per cent per year in 201516, bolstered
by the start of construction on the multi-year, multi-billion-dollar contract to
build ships for the Royal Canadian Navy, part of the National Shipbuilding
Procurement Strategy. As work on the ships continues this year, manufacturing
sector output is expected to increase another 1.9per cent. Output growth in the
manufacturing sector will then accelerate to 3.9per cent in 2018, when the first
of six Arctic and offshore patrol ships is delivered to the navy. This first stage
is expected to be complete by 2020, just as the larger part of the strategythe
completion of up to 15 new warships for the Canadian surface combatant fleet
gets under way. This second stage is scheduled to take 20years.
Construction Sector Output Will Fall This Year

Like manufacturing, Halifaxs construction sector largely shrugged off the
declines in primary and utilities, posting solid average annual output growth
of3.1per cent over 201516. Much of this growth was fuelled by several major
non-residential projects across the region, including the Kings Wharf mixeduse
development project in Dartmouth and the 1-million-square-foot Nova Centre,
a downtown development that features a convention centre, hotel, shops,
restaurants, and office towers. Last year, work also started on the Big Lift,
which involved replacing the suspension spans on the Macdonald Bridge.
Theseprojects also more than offset three consecutive annual declines in
housing starts.

Construction output is poised to tumble 2.8 per cent this year. Non-residential
investment activity has weakened considerably, as spending on the major
projects has wound down. This has also overshadowed the start of other
projects such as the Centre for Ocean Ventures & Entrepreneurship, the
Queens Marque and Cunard developments on the Halifax waterfront,
renovations at the Dartmouth General Hospital, and the construction of new
schools and big retail developments like Cabela and Ikea. Still, a second-
quarter surge in both single-detached and multi-family starts has set the stage
for a 15per cent increase in housing starts this year. In fact, construction is
projected to start on about 2,650homes in 2017, the highest level in five years.
A number of new condominium projects have helped to boost multiple starts
inrecentmonths.
Fortunately, we expect the overall construction downturn to be short-lived, as

output is forecast to rebound with a vigorous 4.2per cent expansion next year.
Housing starts will fall but remain healthy at 2,500 units, while work will ramp
upon the harbour developments and be augmented by new projects such as
theexpansion and renovation of the QEII Hospital, as well as increased public
spending on infrastructure projects..
Construction output is projected to expand at a much more moderate clip of

1.7per cent per year from 2019 to 2021. Housing starts are forecast to fall
in each of these years, easing to 2,300 units by 2021. This is in line with an
expected slowdown in the regions population growth. While Halifax is expected
to see its population rise by 2.0 per cent this year for the second year in a row,
some of this strength is due to a temporary increase in immigration, designed
to help counter the Atlantic regions aging population. Over the medium term,
however, Halifaxs population growth is expected to slow from 1.4per cent in
2018 to 1.0per cent by 2021.
Wholesale and Retail Trade Leading Services Sector

Halifaxs services sector is expected to gain momentum over the near term,
with output growth improving from 1.6per cent in 2016 to 1.9per cent this year
and 2.2per cent next year. Strength will come from several sectors including
wholesale and retail trade, the finance, insurance, and real estate sector, and
business services.

Both the finance, insurance, and real estate sector and the business services
sector have performed consistently well for a number of years, benefitting from
Halifaxs position as a hub city for the Atlantic region, its skilled workforce,
and its post-secondary institutions, all of which allow the city to attract new
businesses. Indeed, finance, insurance, and real estate sector output is forecast
to grow by an average of 2.7per cent annually over this year and next, while
output growth in business services will average an even stronger 3.4per cent
per year.
In spite of this years weak job market, a 2.5per cent gain in personal disposable
income and a steady economy will keep consumers spending. Retail sales are
forecast to increase by 4.5per cent in 2017, leading to a 5.0per cent jump in
wholesale and retail trade output. Retail sales and wholesale and retail trade
output are forecast to advance by a further 2.9per cent and 2.7per cent,
respectively, next year, supported by much stronger job and income growth.

HALIFAX
Chart 1 Chart 2
Employment Outlook GDP Outlook
2017 201821 2017 201821

(annual growth rate) (average annual (annual growth rate) (average annual
compound growth rate) compound growth rate)
Public admin. 7.8 2.4 Public admin. 1.1 2.5
Non-com. services 4.1 0.8 Non-com. services 0.5 1.3
Personal services 3.9 1.3 Personal services 1.7 1.7
Business services 3.7 2.8 Business services 3.6 2.5
Fin., ins., & real est. 0.5 0.1 Fin., ins., & real est. 2.7 2.3
Information & cultural 6.9 0.2 Information & cultural 0.8 0.9
Trans. & ware. 4.6 1.9 Trans. & ware. 0.8 2.5
Wholesale & retail 6.0 1.5 Wholesale & retail 5.0 2.2
Industrial 1.4 0.3 Industrial 1.9 2.3
Total 0.1 1.3 Total 1.4 2.1
6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1 0 1 2 3 4 4 2 0 2 4 6 0 1 2 3
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
HALIFAX
Table 1 Table 2
Sectoral Employment Dominant Industries, 2016
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 223.1 223.9 226.1 226.4 229.9 233.4 235.6 238.2 44114543 Retail trade 26.2
0.4 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1
6220 Hospitals 15.6
Goods sector 30.7 29.3 29.7 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.6
231129 Construction 15.6
3.6 4.7 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.7
722124 Food and beverage services 13.9
Manufacturing 10.6 9.7 9.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.0
6.1 8.7 4.1 12.8 2.1 0.8 0.7 1.4 611217 Post-secondary education 10.1
Construction 15.9 14.9 15.6 15.3 15.0 14.8 14.4 14.7 6111 Primary and secondary schools 9.9
7.1 6.5 4.8 2.2 1.7 1.3 2.8 2.0 621119 Ambulatory health care services 7.9
Primary and utilities 4.2 4.7 4.8 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 5511, 561112, Other management and 7.7
12.4 12.3 1.8 26.1 6.4 0.8 2.6 1.3 561517, 5619, administrative services
562129
Services sector 192.4 194.6 196.4 197.1 200.4 204.0 206.5 208.5
0.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.0 911011 Federal government 7.5
Transportation and warehousing 10.4 10.8 11.4 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.7 411191 Wholesale trade 7.5
6.2 4.0 5.5 4.6 0.8 2.9 2.4 1.5
*North American Industrial Classification System
Information and cultural industries 6.9 5.6 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 Source: Statistics Canada.
11.6 17.8 17.2 6.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3
Wholesale and retail trade 36.4 33.2 33.6 35.6 35.7 36.9 37.3 37.8
4.2 8.7 1.1 6.0 0.4 3.3 1.2 1.2
Chart 3
Finance, insurance, and real estate 14.6 16.1 16.4 16.3 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.3
Employment Market Variability
6.0 10.3 1.7 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3
Business services 30.0 30.7 30.8 29.6 30.9 32.0 32.6 33.0
Fluctuations Compared to Canada
4.5 2.2 0.2 3.7 4.4 3.6 1.9 1.3
Personal services 29.1 29.7 28.8 29.9 30.2 30.6 31.1 31.5 Halifax 164
0.4 2.1 3.2 3.9 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.3
Canada 100
Non-commercial services 49.2 51.3 54.6 52.4 53.2 53.5 53.7 54.0
3.0 4.3 6.4 4.1 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 50 100 150 200
Public administration 15.8 17.1 16.2 17.5 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.2
4.9 7.9 5.0 7.8 2.0 2.9 2.3 2.3
No link to
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Canada 45%
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Link to Canada 55%
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

HALIFAX
Table 3 Table 4
Construction, Commercial Real Estate, and Income Overview Real Estate
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 683,110 660,292 766,429 793,498 922,418 640,816 660,762 695,018 613,793 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 378,793 386,147 503,766 520,558 540,711 398,466 418,859 486,744 434,539 Class A vacancy rate 17.5%
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) $20.16
Non-residential 304,317 274,145 262,663 272,940 381,707 242,350 241,903 208,274 179,254
Suburban office market (2016Q4)
Industrial 30,763 27,922 22,836 21,258 34,526 28,701 35,053 16,474 7,223
Class A vacancy rate 13.7%
Commercial 155,454 216,988 177,564 206,376 255,442 156,128 171,362 167,351 135,778
Public admin. 118,100 29,235 62,263 45,306 91,739 57,521 35,488 24,449 36,253
and non-comm. Industrial market (2016Q4)
Overall availability rate 11.6%
Office sector*
Average net rent ($/sq. ft.) $7.74
No. of square feet 4,473 4,473 4,536 4,660 4,753 4,827 5,047 5,059 5,059
Apartment market (October 2016)
(000s)
Percentage change 2.1 0.0 1.4 2.7 2.0 1.6 4.6 0.2 0.0 Two-bedroom vacancy rate 2.6%
Average two-bedroom rent $1,072.00
Vacancy rate (%) 4.3 7.0 9.9 9.9 10.8 8.3 13.6 14.3 17.5
Employment (000s) 63 62 66 65 64 68 67 70 68 Sources: CBRE; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.

Percentage change 0.7 1.8 6.3 1.5 0.4 5.7 1.0 3.3 2.1
Bankruptcies
Consumer 1,411 1,674 1,503 1,307 1,219 1,265 1,382 1,392 1,462 Chart 5
Business 76 66 77 54 36 42 26 35 28 Economic Structure, 2016
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; Industry Canada; CBRE.
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Halifax
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 0.89
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Nova Scotia 42.0

Halifax 44.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

HALIFAX
Chart 6 Table 5
Sources of Migration Comparative Employment, 2016
(share of total employment)
International Interprovincial Intercity
Forecast
Sector Halifax Nova Scotia Canada
8,000
Industrial 0.13 0.18 0.21
6,000
Office 0.30 0.23 0.25
4,000
2,000 Transportation and warehousing 0.05 0.05 0.05
0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.15 0.16 0.15
2,000 Personal services 0.13 0.13 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Non-commercial services 0.24 0.25 0.20
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Chart 7 Chart 8
Housing Starts Employment in Perspective
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Halifax Canada Halifax Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.1
0.8 1.0
0.6 0.9
0.4 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast f = forecast
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database. Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
Quebec
Summary
Quebecs economy will grow 2.8 per cent this year, but growth will ease in the
next two years.
There will be little slack in labour markets; the unemployment rate will average
less than 6 per cent over the next four years.
Employment growth will boost household income and lift consumer spending.

Quebec | The Conference Board of Canada
QUEBEC

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Investments by Crown corporations will provide
alift to the investment outlook this year and next.
1.7 2.8 1.7 1.6
i
The trade deficit (exports minus imports) will
Credit Quality
widen this year but recede in 2018.
A+
Forecast Risk
h
The recent record-low unemployment rate could
encourage more people to join the labour force,
helping to increase labour supply and thus
potential economic growth.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4
0.1 1.0 0.9 1.8 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4
Population (000s) 8,205 8,255 8,317 8,381 8,445 8,511 8,576 8,641
0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
2.4 1.8 6.2 4.7 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.4
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.234 1.247 1.256 1.273 1.299 1.325 1.353 1.381
1.4 1.1 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1


Strong Performance to Ease

OverForecast
Quebecs economy is firing on (almost) all
cylinders. Indeed, we expect employment,
income, investment, consumer spending, and
GDP to post solid increases over the near term.
This year will be particularly strong, as job gains
and public investment will push GDP growth up
to 2.8 per cent and the unemployment rate down
to an all-time low of 6.3per cent.
However, not all is bright; trade remains a drag as exports struggle to gain
traction. We expect overall growth to ease in 201819.
Employment is an important contributor to this positive outlook. In the last

12 months, nearly 100,000 Quebecers have found jobs. Over the near term,
households will continue to spend some of this extra income on housing and
durable goods. However, after adding an additional 70,000 jobs to the economy
by the end of next year, employment creation will slow over 201921.
Chart 1
(2011 = 1.0)
Quebec Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast

Quebec | The Conference Board of Canada
In other good news, business investment finally turned around last year and is
expected to remain on a solid growth path this year. Yet much of this investment
spending will stem from government-owned corporations, such as the Caisse
dedpt et placement du Qubec with its light-rail project in Montral.
Unfortunately, trade remains Quebecs weak point. Key sectors like forestry
are still weighing on exports, and uncertainty surrounds the negotiations of the
new North American Free Trade Agreement. Aerospace products could behard
hit if the recent U.S. Department of Commerce anti-dumping ruling against
Bombardier is upheld. In better news, though, aluminum exports should pick
upin 2018.
Strong Employment Fuels Household Consumption

Though the pace has slowed over this year, solid employment gains are
contributing to the upturn in Quebec. Indeed, full-time employment advanced
by 1.5per cent per year over 201516, in turn fuelling household consumption.
Although inflation is expected to pick up and eat into real wage growth, tight
labour markets will encourage wage growth over the forecast. In fact, wages
are set to increase by an annual average of 2.5per cent, 0.5percentage
points above inflation. All in all, real household disposable income is set to
advance by 2.4per cent in 2017, contributing to a 2.9per cent increase in
totalhouseholdconsumption.
Starting next year, household consumption will advance at a slower pace

as rising interest rates constrain highly indebted consumers. We expect a
1.8per cent advance in 2018 and an average annual expansion of 1.2per
centover201921.
Investment to Improve Temporarily

Private investment is improving in Quebec, but government-owned corporations
are still the source of much of the gains. After advancing by 6.9per cent this
year, business investment will quickly decelerate over the next few years.
Although the Caisse de dpt et placement du Qubec expects to begin

construction on its $6-billion light-rail train network by the end of this year,
possible delays may push groundbreaking until next year. Nonetheless, this
project will support investment in the near and medium term and be an important

anchor for many residential and mixed commercial developments planned in

the Montral area. Meanwhile, we expect a ramp-up of construction activity on
Hydro-Qubecs ChamouchouaneBout-de-lle transmission project and on the
final phase of the La Romaine project.
Private investment is forecast to weaken by the end of the decade, as these

projects will wind down and private businesses reluctance to invest in Quebec
will offset a recovery in commodity prices. Thus, we do not expect a substantial
expansion of capital stock in the province.
Finally, residential investment is looking up, as housing starts are in line to hit
a five-year high in 2017, supported by a buzzing labour market. Even though
new housing construction is expected to fall from 2018 to 2021, a healthy resale
market will keep residential investment above water.
Chart 2

Office 1.9
Industrial 2.2
Total 1.9
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Qubec City
Summary
Real GDP in Qubec City is set to increase by 2.9per cent this year and 2.0per
cent in 2018.
After a temporary setback last year, employment is set to bounce back with a
1.6per cent advance this year.
Housing starts came in strong during the first half of the year, and we expect
about 4,850 starts for the year, a 1.9per cent increase over 2016.

QUBEC CITY

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Manufacturing output growth is set to reach
a12year high in 2017.
1.5 2.9 1.8 1.6
Out of 13 CMAs #9 #10 #12 #12
i
LePhare de Qubec has been delayed again.
Credit Quality n.a.
Relative Cost of Shelter

(versus national average) Forecast Risk
2016
i
Homeownership 0.54 Although healthy income gains bode well for
consumer spending this year, high debt levels
Rental 0.84
and interest rate hikes could hinder household
consumption more than expected in the
mediumterm.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 1.0 0.9 1.5 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5
1.2 2.1 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.8
2.4 2.5 1.0 1.9 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4
Population (000s) 797 801 807 814 821 828 835 843
0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
2.4 1.5 4.3 3.9 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.5
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.235 1.247 1.255 1.273 1.298 1.325 1.352 1.380
1.3 1.0 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1


Qubec City | The Conference Board of Canada
Economy Improves Across the Board

Qubec Citys economy continued to chug
along at a decent pace last year, with real GDP
expanding by 1.5per cent. This year, better
macro- and microeconomic conditions will
contribute to a 2.9per cent advance, the fastest
gain in 13years.
Although the economic improvement is being felt across the board, this
performance comes as activity in the goods-producing industries is surging.
Indeed, GDP in manufacturing and construction is set to expand faster than
it has in years. The manufacturing industry is benefitting from productivity
gains and diversification efforts from local companies, while a steady new
housing market (encouraged by employment and income gains) and a pickup
innonresidential activity (which was tepid in 2016) are supporting constructions
solidresults.
On the services side of the economy, employment is on track to advance by

2.4per cent and real GDP is set to post 2.7per cent growth this year. Sectors
performing particularly well include transportation and warehousing; wholesale
and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal services.
Indeed, all these industries are set to post real GDP growth of 3.0per cent or
more this year. The strength of the goods sector, the bright employment outlook,
a small pickup in housing starts and residential market activity, and a healthy
tourism sector are the drivers behind the success of these industries.
On the labour market front, employment is expected to advance by 1.6per cent

this year, rebounding from a rare 0.9per cent drop in 2016, the largest decline
since 1999. A slower increase in the labour force will push the unemployment
rate down to 4.4per cent this year and next. While such a low rate suggests
the local economy is operating at full employment, it also raises concerns about
labour shortages.
Services Activity Leaps Forward

Although last years output advance in the services-producing industries was
an improvement over the 201415 performance, it was unexceptional, coming

inat 1.5 per cent. Fortunately, aggregate services output has picked up this
year and is on track to rise by 2.7per cent. Another solid expansion of 2.0per
cent is our call for 2018. The services sectors outlook is key for Qubec City
itaccounts for 82per cent of total economic output, 10percentage points above
the provincial average.
Wholesale and retail trade is on track to be this years growth leader in

services, even though output growth in the industry is set to slow from 5.0per
cent last year to 4.3per cent this year. The rebound in employment and the
accompanying income gains have lifted the spirits of local consumers and thus
retail spending. At the same time, the wholesale trade sector is benefiting from
the pickup in manufacturing. Wholesale and retail trade output is forecast to
grow a further 2.5per cent in 2018. The grand opening of an Ikea store next
year, as well as some new 415,000 square feet of retail space around it, will
helpsustain the sectors momentum. Nonetheless, high consumer debt and
interest rate hikes could hurt this industry in the medium term.
The personal services industry, a historically bright spot in Qubec Citys

economy, is on track to post a strong 3.3 per cent output advance this year
anda solid 2.2 per cent increase next year. This industry which includes food
services and accommodation, as well as arts, entertainment, and recreation
servicescontinues to benefit from a healthy tourism sector, which has been
boosted by the lower Canadian dollar. Even though a slight appreciation of the
loonie could curb the sectors performance somewhat, Qubec City remains
adestination of choice for domestic and international travellers.
The finance, insurance, and real estate industry, the metro areas largest,
underperformed over 201416, recording average annual output growth of just
1.2per cent. Fortunately, the industry has stepped things up this year. In fact,
a 3.0per cent output expansion is in the cards, with an increase in real estate
activity, including a steady new housing market, fuelling growth in the sector.
The metropolitan area also remains an insurance company hub in the country.
Finance, insurance, and real estate output growth is projected to come in at a
slower but still solid 2.4per cent in 2018.
Finally, transportation and warehousing services are set to advance 3.1per

cent this year and 2.0per cent next year after four consecutive output declines.
The rebound is being fuelled by the pickup in the goods-producing industries,

particularly in manufacturing and construction, both big users of transportation

and warehousing services. The completion of renovation work at Qubec Citys
Jean-Lesage Airport should provide further good news for the industry, although
no new destinations had been announced at the time of writing.
Strong Construction Growth to Be Short-Lived

Although the construction sector is enjoying a burst of activity this year, things
are set to slow thereafter. Qubec Citys construction industry is set to post
output growth of 2.6per cent this year, the strongest gain since 2012. But output
growth is forecast to slow to 1.3per cent in 2018 and then remain stable around
this rate until 2021.
This years growth is coming from both the residential and non-residential
sectors. Housing starts are on track to climb modestly from 4,770 units in 2016
to 4,850 units in 2017, with the increase coming mostly from the multi-family
sector. However, residential constructions outlook is not as bright over the
rest of the forecast period. Indeed, housing starts are expected to fall in each
year, inline with an aging population, rising interest rates, and deleveraging
consumers. LePhare de Qubeca $650-million four-tower mixed-use project
including a hotel, concert hall, and public spacewould offer a helping hand
to the sector, but construction has faced multiple delays and the project is no
longer expected to start this year.
Several projects currently under way on the private non-residential side are
alsobolstering construction output growth. These include a new $1.9-billion
hospital complex and the construction of the new Ikea and its surrounding
retail space. There is also upside risk to our non-residential investment outlook
stemming from the Beauport 2020 project that would expand Qubec Citys port.
The project is currently undergoing environmental assessments.
Finally, the public sector will also contribute to non-residential construction, with
projects such as the widening and refurbishment of the HenriIV highway, valued
somewhere between $400million and $500million. Qubec Citys three-year
infrastructure plan will also support growth.

Manufacturing to Lead
Following rapid output growth of 5.0per cent in 2014 and 2.5per cent in 2015,
output in Qubec Citys manufacturing industry decelerated sharply last year
to an unimpressive rate of 1.0per cent. However, this slowdown has proved
to be short-lived, as the industry is on track to post a whopping 5.1per cent
increase this year, the largest gain in 12years. Not only is the weaker Canadian
dollar fuelling growth in this export-oriented sector, but investments to upgrade
capacity, automate processes, and diversify product offerings also seem to
be paying off. Indeed, local firms in subsectors such as medical supplies
manufacturing and electronic product manufacturing have recently boosted
theirproduction. What is more, local steel manufacturers continue to benefit
from the construction of Montrals Champlain Bridge. An output gain of 2.5per
cent, close to the industrys long-term average, is our call for 2018.

QUBEC CITY
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 1.6 1.3 Total 2.9 1.8
80 40 0 40 80 120 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3
QUBEC CITY
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
1.2 2.1 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.8
9120 Provincial government 37.1
Goods sector 60.2 65.2 59.0 56.8 62.2 62.7 63.0 63.2
6220 Hospitals 30.6
4.5 8.3 9.5 3.7 9.6 0.7 0.5 0.3
Manufacturing 31.3 33.8 31.0 30.9 33.6 33.3 33.6 33.9
Construction 23.4 25.9 22.5 22.0 23.9 24.5 24.6 24.6 624144 Social assistance 16.8
6.5 10.6 13.0 2.3 9.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 411191 Wholesale trade 15.0
Primary and utilities 5.6 5.5 5.5 3.9 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 6111 Primary and secondary schools 14.9
32.7 0.9 0.5 29.0 19.0 3.6 0.6 0.9
5511, 561112, Other management and 14.6
Services sector 373.3 377.5 379.6 388.7 391.9 397.8 402.3 405.9 561517, 5619, administrative services
0.7 1.1 0.6 2.4 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.9 562129
Transportation and warehousing 14.4 13.1 9.8 18.6 12.9 12.4 12.4 12.4 621119 Ambulatory health care services 14.2
22.1 8.9 25.4 90.6 30.7 3.5 0.1 0.3
14.0 15.7 41.5 51.8 64.2 3.1 0.7 0.8
0.2 5.2 12.6 10.4 8.1 2.9 1.2 1.1
Chart 3
0.1 2.1 13.0 26.7 11.0 0.1 0.5 0.3
Business services 54.4 53.3 48.7 55.4 53.1 53.7 54.4 54.9 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
4.8 2.0 8.7 13.8 4.2 1.1 1.4 1.0
Personal services 60.6 56.4 58.8 60.1 61.3 63.0 64.0 64.8 Qubec City 286
8.5 6.9 4.3 2.3 2.0 2.6 1.6 1.3
Canada 100
3.5 7.2 1.7 5.4 9.7 2.0 2.1 1.8 0 100 200 300
5.9 1.8 7.0 4.0 6.3 0.4 0.7 0.9
No link to

QUBEC CITY
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1,558,738 1,741,269 1,710,088 1,686,712 1,697,118 1,764,383 1,484,093 1,406,373 1,575,673 New housing market (2016)
Residential 901,273 1,090,972 1,181,583 1,095,656 1,163,707 929,440 1,016,958 943,045 1,092,381 Single-detached absorptions 198
Growth 58.1%
Non-residential 657,465 650,297 528,505 591,056 533,411 834,943 467,135 463,328 483,292
Average price of absorbed single-detached units $383,914
Industrial 120,633 46,150 98,176 93,967 70,680 103,362 47,663 62,102 87,734
Growth 2.1%
Commercial 398,054 499,143 306,572 422,525 358,626 562,365 322,468 274,311 268,394
Resale housing market (2016)
Public admin. 138,778 105,004 123,757 74,564 104,105 169,216 97,004 126,915 127,164
and non-comm. Unit sales 6,722
Growth 1.6%
Office sector*
Average price $265,009
No. of square feet n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Growth 0.1%
(000s)
Percentage change n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Apartment market (October 2016)
Vacancy rate (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Two-bedroom vacancy rate 5.4%
Average two-bedroom rent $823
Employment (000s) 131 126 137 138 140 140 139 138 135
Percentage change 7.2 3.1 8.5 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 2.4 Sources:CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 2,123 2,469 1,956 1,792 1,755 1,867 1,748 1,926 1,919
Business 185 126 124 126 113 131 147 135 146
Chart 5
*Information and cultural services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration. Economic Structure, 2016
Chart 4
Highly diverse = 1
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 Not diverse = 0
($ 000s) Qubec City
0.68
Canada 46.2
Quebec 42.1
Qubec City 45.7

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

QUBEC CITY
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Qubec City Quebec Canada
8,000
6,000
Office 0.31 0.25 0.25
4,000
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Qubec City Canada Qubec City Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.2 1.2
1.1 1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8 0.9
0.7 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Montral
Summary
Real GDP growth in Montral is on track to hit 3.2per cent this year, its fastest
annual expansion since the turn of the century.
Employment increased by 1.6per cent in 2016. The near-term outlook is similar:

we expect average gains of 1.6per cent per year over 201718.
Solid employment and income gains are providing a boost to consumer

spending this year.

MONTRAL

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 A higher number of housing starts this year
and next will contribute to strong growth in
1.8 3.2 1.8 1.8
theconstruction industry.
Out of 13 CMAs #7 #6 #11 #10
h
The unemployment rate is poised to hit a record
low of 6.6per cent this year.
Credit Quality AA

2016
i
NAFTA renegotiations present some downside
Homeownership 0.76 risks to our forecast. New duties or restrictions
totrade could hurt the local economy.
Rental 0.82
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 1.3 1.4 1.8 3.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6
0.5 1.1 1.6 3.2 0.1 1.4 0.9 0.7
2.7 3.1 2.4 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.3
Population (000s) 4,019 4,050 4,094 4,138 4,178 4,219 4,260 4,300
1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
2.6 2.3 4.3 3.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.232 1.249 1.259 1.277 1.304 1.331 1.358 1.386
1.5 1.4 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1


Montral | The Conference Board of Canada
From Rags to Riches

Following five straight years of modest annual
average growth of 1.6per cent, Montrals
economy has finally picked up steam. In fact,
real GDP growth is on track to expand by 3.2per
cent this year, a rate of growth unmatched in
the past 17years. Unfortunately, we predict that
economic growth will moderate to 2.0per cent in
2018 and 2019 and then decelerate even further
over the rest ofthe forecast as the population
ages and consumer spending moderates.
The improvement in Montral this year is being fuelled by a turnaround in the
goods-producing sector, which is expected to post growth for the first time
since 2012. In particular, manufacturing activity is expected to accelerate
following two years of weak gains, while construction output is projected to
follow last years 2.1per cent expansion with a very solid 3.1per cent advance.
The manufacturing industry is benefitting from the strength of subsectors such
aspharmaceutical manufacturing and automation equipment manufacturing,
while the construction industry is being boosted by several major non-residential
projects and a pickup in residential construction.
Adding to the renewed strength in the goods sector, the services side of the
economy is on track to post faster growth in 2017. The transportation and
warehousing industryclosely linked to the ups and downs of manufacturing
and construction activityis poised to lead the pack with a 6.7per cent GDP
advance this year, its third consecutive expansion above 6.0 per cent.
Unsurprisingly, this robust economic performance will yield positive results on

the job front. We expect employment to increase by an annual average rate of
1.6per cent over 201718 and the unemployment rate to decrease from 7.6per
cent in 2016 to a record low of 6.5per cent next year.

A Skyline of Cranes
After struggling in recent years, Montrals construction industry appears to
have turned a corner. Indeed, last year employment in the industry advanced
by a solid 5.1 per cent and output expanded for the first time since 2012. This
year isshaping up to be even better, as housing starts in the metropolitan area
are on track to hit a five-year high and non-residential construction activity
continues to fire on all cylinders, thanks to contributions from both private and
public investment. Overall, output in the construction industry is forecast to climb
by3.1per cent in 2017 and 2.1per cent next year.
Public investment will remain a key engine of growth for the industry this year
and next as work on massive infrastructure projects ramps up. Significant work
has already been completed this year on the western and eastern approaches
of the new Champlain Bridge, which are scheduled to be finalized next summer.
The cable-stayed section of the bridge is also on track to be completed before
the end of next year. Other projects making headway include the $3.7-billion
Turcot Interchange, the covering of the Ville-Marie Expressway, and the Dorval
Interchange redesign, the last two being scheduled for completion before
the end of the year. Looking ahead, provincial and federal funding has been
committed for Montrals $6-billion light-rail transit (LRT) project. Although
construction is scheduled to begin before the end of this year, delays are
possible, as the project has received push-back from a coalition of activists,
residents, and unions. Nonetheless, we expect the economic effects of the
project to be felt within a few years.
Private non-residential investment will also support growth over the forecast
period. Notable projects include construction of a $1.5-billion mixed-use property
dubbed Solar Uniquartier on Montrals South Shorescheduled for completion
in 2027and Bells $854-million commitment to expand its communications
infrastructure and bring broadband fibre network access to 1.1million residences
and business locations by 2022.
Finally, residential construction has been healthy this year, and this trend
is expected to continue over the near term. The positive employment and
economic outlook is likely behind a decrease in multi-family inventories
and a tightening of the resale market, both of which are encouraging new
home construction. All in all, we expect housing starts to come in at almost

19,700units this year, the highest level since 2012. Next year looks almost as
good, although a gradual increase in interest rates should dampen demand
slightly. About 19,000 housing starts are anticipated in 2018.
Better Outlook for Manufacturing, but

UncertaintiesLoom
The performance of Montrals manufacturing industry has been disappointing
over the last decade, even including the past few years when macroeconomic
conditions have been favourable thanks to healthy U.S. demand and a weaker
Canadian dollar. Despite these positives, output in the industry has contracted
by an average of 1.2per cent annually since 2006 and is now about one-fifth
smaller than it was in 2000. It is likely that low business confidenceand the
ensuing lack of capacity-augmenting investmenthas contributed to these
lacklustre results.
However, the industry has finally started showing signs of life this year, as output
growth is poised to reach 4.0 per cent as a result of strength in sectors such
aspharmaceutical manufacturing and automation equipment manufacturing.
Yetthe outlook of the aerospace products and parts manufacturing sectora key
one in the metropolitan areacould be jeopardized by a 220 per cent punitive
duty imposed on Bombardiers jets by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The
companys C Series jets were garnering international attention earlier this year
thanks to better-than-expected performances. If this ruling is upheld, it could put
the $5.6-billion deal with Delta at risk.
Manufacturing output growth is expected to continue next year and over the
rest of the forecast, but at much more moderate rates; output is projected to
climb by 2.0per cent in 2018. Despite the positive outlook, a dark cloud looms
on the horizon as NAFTA negotiations continue. New trade barriers would hurt
Montrals export-oriented manufacturing sector.
Services to Sustain Growth

The services-producing industries remain an important engine of growth in
Montral that has helped offset the struggles on the goods side of the economy.
Indeed, last years impressive 2.8per cent output gain will be surpassedthis
year with an even stronger 3.3per cent expansion, a 17-year high. The
aggregate services sector will finally cool off next year, however, when a

2.0percent gain is anticipated. Near-term growth drivers include transportation

and warehousing; finance, insurance, and real estate; and business services.
Employment gains across the services industries will also be strong this year,
with more than 55,000 new jobs expected to be added to payrolls.
Transportation and warehousing services will lead the pack over 201718 as
the industry continues to benefit from the turnaround in the goods-producing
industries; the demand for rail, air, and road transportation is being fuelled by
increasing manufacturing and construction activity. Sightseeing and transit
transportation services will also contribute to growth this year, thanks to
strong tourism activity in the metropolitan area tied to the citys 375th birthday
celebrations. New maritime shipping routes between Montral and European
portsresulting from the provisional implementation of the Comprehensive
Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the EUwill also
contribute to growth. All in all, the industry is in line to post output growth
of6.7per cent this year and 2.2per cent in 2018.
The finance, insurance, and real estate industry in Montral will also stay on
a healthy growth path. The areas vibrant financial sector, as well as higher
demand for real estate services (courtesy of a better housing market outlook),
will contribute to this years 4.2per cent expansion. A slower but still solid
2.6per cent output gain is on tap for 2018.
Finally, we expect business services to advance by 3.4per cent this year and
2.5per cent next year. The positive economic outlook across the economy will
foster firms demand for essential inputs such as engineering, legal, accounting,
management, and administrative services.

MONTRAL
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 3.2 0.7 Total 3.2 1.8
5 0 5 10 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3
MONTRAL
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 2,018.4 2,040.3 2,072.8 2,139.2 2,140.4 2,169.5 2,188.6 2,204.0 44114543 Retail trade 246.4
0.5 1.1 1.6 3.2 0.1 1.4 0.9 0.7
Goods sector 356.0 342.1 344.5 355.4 365.6 361.2 361.1 360.5
4.2 3.9 0.7 3.2 2.9 1.2 0.0 0.2
6220 Hospitals 100.7
Manufacturing 224.1 226.6 224.2 225.9 238.2 232.5 231.9 230.9
0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 5.5 2.4 0.3 0.4 411191 Wholesale trade 94.9
9.7 9.7 5.1 8.0 1.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 624144 Social assistance 76.3
562129
Services sector 1,662.4 1,698.3 1,728.3 1,783.8 1,774.8 1,808.4 1,827.5 1,843.5
0.3 2.2 1.8 3.2 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.9 5211, 522123, Finance 70.8
523139
Transportation and warehousing 97.1 110.0 116.9 112.3 116.7 119.0 119.8 120.1
Information and cultural industries 64.1 60.2 58.8 64.1 60.9 60.1 59.5 58.7 *North American Industrial Classification System
1.2 6.0 2.4 9.1 5.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 Source: Statistics Canada.
1.5 0.7 0.5 6.8 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.7
Finance, insurance, and real estate 134.5 129.3 133.5 139.2 137.7 141.6 142.2 143.1 Chart 3
3.1 3.8 3.2 4.3 1.1 2.8 0.4 0.6 Employment Market Variability
3.0 13.6 0.6 3.1 1.1 2.6 1.5 1.3 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
Personal services 269.9 266.7 280.5 274.4 284.7 292.7 297.9 302.3
1.7 1.2 5.2 2.2 3.8 2.8 1.8 1.5 Montral 153
Non-commercial services 412.0 405.0 412.5 434.1 440.6 442.9 448.9 453.6 Canada 100
0.0 1.7 1.8 5.2 1.5 0.5 1.3 1.0
Public administration 80.0 83.5 79.1 80.0 72.0 74.4 74.3 74.2 0 50 100 150 200
8.3 4.4 5.2 1.1 10.0 3.3 0.1 0.2
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. No link to
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change. Canada 22%
Link to Canada 78%

MONTRAL
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 6,442,007 5,792,087 6,567,155 7,858,141 7,833,398 7,664,210 8,975,130 6,956,865 7,402,984 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 4,252,440 3,728,446 4,481,964 4,958,149 4,786,558 4,212,463 4,116,407 4,034,727 4,358,892 Class A vacancy rate 10.6%
Non-residential 2,189,567 2,063,641 2,085,191 2,899,992 3,046,840 3,451,747 4,858,723 2,922,138 3,044,092
Industrial 331,268 271,462 261,850 328,509 523,218 428,381 632,201 412,723 387,213
Commercial 1,388,189 1,172,757 1,160,405 1,984,942 1,743,633 1,818,148 1,579,552 1,657,754 1,600,843
Public admin. 470,110 619,422 662,936 586,541 779,989 1,205,218 2,646,970 851,661 1,056,036

Office sector*
No. of square feet 42,186 42,350 43,081 43,126 42,771 42,759 43,350 43,782 43,587
(000s) Apartment market (October 2016)
Vacancy rate (%) 5.7 8.7 8.1 6.4 6.9 8.2 10.4 11.2 10.6 Average two-bedroom rent $792
Employment (000s) 521 531 555 527 548 545 546 577 577 Sources: CMHC Housing Time Series Database: The Quebec Federation of Real
Percentage change 1.9 1.9 4.5 5.0 4.0 0.6 0.2 5.7 0.0 Estate Boards.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 13,909 16,770 14,246 12,833 12,003 11,930 11,055 10,764 10,178
Business 1,137 1,095 875 902 873 905 887 831 819
Chart 5
Economic Structure, 2016
Chart 4 Highly diverse = 1

Not diverse = 0
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 Montral
($ 000s) 0.91
Canada 46.2
Quebec 42.1
Montral 43.3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

MONTRAL
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Montral Quebec Canada
50,000
25,000 Office 0.28 0.25 0.25
Transportation and warehousing 0.06 0.05 0.05

0
Wholesale and retail trade 0.16 0.16 0.15
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Montral Canada Montral Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.2 1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.6 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Qubec (franais)
Rsum du chapitre
Lconomie du Qubec enregistrera une croissance de 2,8% cette anne,

maisla croissance ralentira au cours des deux prochaines annes.
Il y aura peu de capacit excdentaire sur le march du travail;

letaux dechmage sera infrieur 6% en moyenne pendant les
quatreprochainesannes.
La croissance de lemploi fera grimper le revenu des mnages et

lesdpensesde consommation.

QUBEC

(%)
h
2016 2017 2018-2021 2012-2021 Les investissements des socits dtat
amlioreront les perspectives dinvestissement
1,7 2,8 1,7 1,6
cette anne et lan prochain.
i
Le dficit commercial (exportations moins
Qualit du crdit
importations) se creusera cette anne,
A+ maisdiminuera en 2018.
Risque conjoncturel
h
Encourags par un taux de chmage
historiquement bas, plus de gens pourraient
sejoindre la population active, ce qui
aiderait accrotre loffre de travailleurs et,
parconsquent, la production potentielle.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
PIB rel au prix de base 309 852 313 676 319 012 327 885 334 330 340 858 345 866 350 734
(M$ de 2007) 1,2 1,2 1,7 2,8 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,4
0,1 1,0 0,9 1,8 1,1 1,1 0,6 0,4
Taux de chmage (%) 7,8 7,7 7,0 6,3 6,0 5,8 5,8 5,9
0,7 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8
logements individuels (milliers)
logements collectifs (milliers)
Ventes au dtail (M$) 109 622 111 556 118 487 124 020 126 610 129 207 131 412 133 230
2,4 1,8 6,2 4,7 2,1 2,1 1,7 1,4
IPC (2002 = 1,0) 1,234 1,247 1,256 1,273 1,299 1,325 1,353 1,381
1,4 1,1 0,7 1,4 2,0 2,0 2,1 2,1

Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. 42

Qubec | Le Conference Board du Canada
Aprs des rsultats solides,

unralentissement se profile
Lconomie du Qubec tourne (presque) plein
rgime. En effet, nous nous attendons ce
que lemploi, le revenu, les investissements,
les dpenses de consommation et le PIB
enregistrent de fortes hausses court terme.
Lactivit sera particulirement vigoureuse
cette anne, alors que les emplois crs et
les investissements publics feront grimper
lacroissance du PIB jusqu 2,8% et plonger
letaux de chmage un niveau jamais atteint,
soit 6,3%.
Toutefois, tout nest pas rose: le commerce extrieur continue dagir comme
unfrein alors que les exportations remontent difficilement la pente. Nous
anticipons donc un ralentissement de la croissance globale en 2018-2019.
Lemploi contribue de prs ces perspectives positives. Au cours des

12derniers mois, prs de 100000Qubcois ont trouv un emploi. court
terme, les mnages continueront de consacrer une partie de ce revenu
Graphique 2
Lemploi en perspective
(2011 = 1,0)
Qubec Canada
Prvision
1,2
1,1
1,0
0,9
0,8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p
p = prvision
Sources : Statistique Canada; Le Conference Board du Canada.

supplmentaire au logement et aux biens durables. Quelque 70000emplois

sajouteront dici la fin de lanne prochaine, mais la croissance de lemploi
ralentira durant la priode allant de 2019 2021.
Autre bonne nouvelle, les investissements des entreprises se sont finalement

redresss lan dernier et devraient maintenir la tendance cette anne. Cela dit,
une grande part de ces dpenses dinvestissement sera le fait de socits dtat
comme la Caisse de dpt et placement du Qubec, avec son projet de rseau
lectrique mtropolitain Montral.
Malheureusement, le commerce extrieur demeure le maillon faible du Qubec.

Des secteurs cls comme la foresterie freinent encore les exportations, et
de lincertitude entoure les ngociations en vue dun nouvel accord de libre-
change nord-amricain. Les produits arospatiaux pourraient aussi souffrir
lan prochain si le dpartement du commerce des tats-Unis maintient sa
dcision dimposer des droits compensatoires Bombardier. En revanche,
lesexportations daluminium devraient commencer augmenter en 2018.
La vigueur de lemploi stimule la consommation

desmnages
Mme si le taux de croissance a ralenti au courant de lanne, les gains
demplois demeurent forts et contribuent au redressement au Qubec. Eneffet,
lemploi temps plein a augment de 1,5% par anne en 2015-2016, stimulant
ainsi la consommation des mnages. Bien que lon sattende ce que linflation
sacclre et fasse reculer la croissance des salaires rels, le resserrement
dumarch du travail favorisera la croissance des salaires au cours de la priode
prvisionnelle. De fait, les salaires devraient crotre au taux annuel moyen de
2,5%, soit 0,5point de pourcentage au-dessus de linflation. Danslensemble,
le revenu disponible rel des mnages devrait augmenter de2,4% en
2017, contribuant ainsi une hausse de 2,9% de la consommation totale
desmnages.

Qubec | Le Conference Board du Canada
compter de lan prochain, la consommation des mnages progressera plus

lentement, car les consommateurs, lourdement endetts, devront composer
avec des hausses des taux dintrt. Nous prvoyons donc quelle augmentera
de 1,8% en 2018 et de 1,2% par anne, en moyenne, sur lhorizon 2019-2021.
Amlioration temporaire de linvestissement

Linvestissement priv samliore au Qubec, mais les socits dtat continuent
dtre lorigine de la majeure partie des gains. Aprs stre accrus de 6,9%
cette anne, les investissements des entreprises ralentiront rapidement au cours
des prochaines annes.
Bien que la Caisse de dpt et placement du Qubec sattende ce que

les travaux de construction de son systme lger sur rail, valu 6G$,
commencent dici la fin de lanne, des retards possibles pourraient lobliger
reporter la premire pellete de terre lan prochain. Cela dit, ce projet
soutiendra linvestissement court et moyen terme et sera un important
point dancrage autour duquel graviteront de nombreux projets rsidentiels
etcommerciaux usage mixte dans la rgion de Montral. Paralllement,
nousanticipons une augmentation des activits de construction dans le
cadre du projet de transport dlectricit de la ChamouchouaneBout-de-lle
dHydroQubec et de la phase finale du projet de la Romaine.
Selon nos prvisions, linvestissement priv saffaiblira dici la fin de la

dcennie, alors que ces projets arriveront terme et que la remonte des prix
des produits de base sera neutralise par la rticence des entreprises prives
investir au Qubec. Par consquent, on ne prvoit pas daugmentation
substantielle du stock de capital dans la province.
Enfin, les perspectives dinvestissement rsidentiel samliorent les mises

en chantier, soutenues par un march du travail bourdonnant, sont en passe
datteindre leur plus haut niveau en cinq ans en 2017. Mme si on prvoit une
baisse de la construction de logements neufs de 2018 2021, le dynamisme
dumarch de la revente permettra linvestissement rsidentiel de se maintenir
flot.

Graphique 2
Perspectives sectorielles, 2017-2021
(taux de croissance annuelle moyen compos)
Services non commerciaux 1,6

Services personnels 1,9
Commerce de gros et de dtail 1,3
Transport et entreposage 2,4
Bureaux 1,9
Industriel 2,2
Total 1,9
0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5
Source : Le Conference Board du Canada.

Ville de Qubec (franais)
Rsum du chapitre
Le PIB rel de Qubec devrait augmenter de 2,9% cette anne, puis

de2%en2018.
Aprs un recul passager lan dernier, lemploi devrait progresser

de1,6%cetteanne.
Les mises en chantier de logements taient nombreuses dans

lapremiremoiti de lanne et nous nous attendons quelque
4850pourlanne, soit unehausse de 1,9% par rapport 2016.

VILLE DE QUBEC

et classement
h
La croissance de la production manufacturire
(%)
devrait tre la plus forte en 12ans en 2017.
2016 2017 2018-2021 2012-2021
1,5 2,9 1,8 1,6
Sur 13 RMR No 9 No 10 No 12 No 12
i
Les travaux duPhare de Qubec sont
Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr. denouveaureports.
Qualit du crdit s.o.
Cot relatif du logement Risque conjoncturel

(par rapport la moyenne nationale)
i
De solides augmentations de revenu sont de bon
2016
augure pour les dpenses de consommation cette
Accession la proprit 0,54 anne, mais le fort endettement des mnages et
le relvement des taux dintrt risquent de freiner
Location 0,84
la consommation plus que prvu moyen terme.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(M$ de 2007) 1,0 0,9 1,5 2,9 2,0 2,0 1,6 1,5
Nombre total demplois (milliers) 434 443 439 446 454 460 465 469
1,2 2,1 0,9 1,6 1,9 1,4 1,0 0,8
Taux de chmage (%) 5,4 4,7 4,6 4,4 4,4 4,3 4,3 4,4
2,4 2,5 1,0 1,9 3,2 2,7 2,5 2,4
Population (milliers) 797 801 807 814 821 828 835 843
0,8 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,8
Mises en chantier 4 449 5 442 4 766 4 854 4 239 4 191 4 108 4 005
Ventes au dtail (M$) 13 499 13 697 14 288 14 845 15 158 15 469 15 754 15 992
2,4 1,5 4,3 3,9 2,1 2,1 1,8 1,5
IPC (2002 = 1,0) 1,235 1,247 1,255 1,273 1,298 1,325 1,352 1,380
1,3 1,0 0,6 1,4 2,0 2,0 2,1 2,1


Ville de Qubec | Le Conference Board du Canada
Reprise conomique gnrale

Lconomie de Qubec a continu de progresser
tant bien que mal lan dernier pour arriver
un taux de croissance du PIB rel de 1,5%.
Cette anne, une meilleure situation macro- et
micro-conomique contribuera porter cette
croissance 2,9%, la plus forte progression
en13ans.
Bien que lamlioration de la conjoncture se ressente partout, cette performance
se profile au moment o lactivit dans les industries productrices de biens
est en hausse. En fait, le PIB dans la fabrication et la construction devrait
augmenter plus rapidement quil ne la fait depuis des annes. Le secteur
manufacturier profite de gains de productivit et des efforts de diversification
de la part dentreprises locales, tandis quun march du logement neuf stable
(encourag par la progression de lemploi et des revenus) et une reprise de
lactivit non rsidentielle (timide en 2016) soutiennent des rsultats solides
dans la construction.
Dans les services, lemploi devrait progresser de 2,4% et le PIB rel de 2,7%
cette anne. Les secteurs qui se portent particulirement bien sont ceux du
transport et de lentreposage; du commerce de gros et de dtail; de la finance,
des assurances et de limmobilier; et des services personnels. De fait, tous ces
secteurs devraient afficher une croissance du PIB rel de 3% ou plus cette
anne. La vigueur du secteur des biens, les bonnes perspectives de lemploi,
lalgre reprise des mises en chantier de logements et de lactivit sur le
march rsidentiel, et le dynamisme du secteur du tourisme sont les moteurs
derrire le succs de ces industries.
Pour ce qui est du march du travail, lemploi devrait progresser de 1,6% cette
anne, aprs un recul inhabituel de 0,9% en 2016 qui tait aussi la plus forte
contraction depuis 1999. Une augmentation plus lente de la population active
vaudra Qubec un taux de chmage 4,4% cette anne et lan prochain,
cequi donne penser que lconomie locale est en situation de plein emploi,
mais rveille aussi des craintes de pnuries de main-duvre.

Sursaut de lactivit dans le secteur des services

Mme si laugmentation de la production dans les industries de services lan
dernier marquait une amlioration par rapport 2014-2015, 1,5%, elle navait
rien dexceptionnel. Heureusement, la production globale des services sest
acclre et devrait augmenter de 2,7% cette anne, puis de 2% en 2018,
selon nos prvisions. Les perspectives du secteur des services sont essentielles
pour Qubec, car la ville doit ce secteur 82% de sa production conomique
totale, soit 10points de pourcentage de plus que la moyenne provinciale.
Le commerce de gros et de dtail devrait afficher la plus forte croissance dans

les services cette anne, mme si on prvoit quelle passera de 5% en 2016
4,3% en 2017. La reprise de lemploi et la hausse des revenus qui laccompagne
redonnent le moral aux consommateurs, qui dpensent donc plus dans le
commerce de dtail. Paralllement, le commerce de gros profite de la reprise
dans la fabrication. Le commerce de gros et de dtail devrait encore enregistrer
une croissance de 2,5% en 2018. Louverture dun magasin Ikea lan prochain,
ainsi que de quelque 415000pi despace commercial autour de ce magasin,
aidera maintenir le dynamisme du secteur. Cependant, le fort endettement des
consommateurs et la hausse des taux dintrt pourraient desservir lindustrie
court terme.
Le secteur des services personnels, qui sest toujours bien port Qubec,
devrait afficher une croissance de 3,3% cette anne et de 2,2% lan prochain.
Ce secteur qui comprend la restauration et les services dhbergement, ainsi
que les arts, les spectacles et les loisirs continue de profiter de la bonne
sant du secteur du tourisme, qui profite quant lui de la faiblesse du dollar
canadien. Bien quune lgre apprciation du huard pourrait freiner quelque
peu la performance du secteur, Qubec reste une destination de choix pour
lesvoyageurs canadiens et trangers.
Le secteur de la finance, des assurances et de limmobilier, qui est le plus

important de la rgion mtropolitaine, a t peu performant de 2014 2016,
avec tout juste 1,2% de croissance annuelle moyenne. Heureusement, ilsest
ressaisi cette anne. En fait, on prvoit une hausse de 3%, grce une
augmentation de lactivit immobilire, y compris un march du logement
neufstable, qui alimente la croissance du secteur. La rgion mtropolitaine

reste aussi un ple pour les compagnies dassurance dans le pays. En 2018,
lafinance, les assurances et limmobilier devraient afficher une croissance
moindre mais encore solide, soit 2,4%.
Enfin, aprs quatre annes de baisse conscutives, les services de transport

etdentreposage devraient enregistrer une croissance de 3,1% cette anne
et de 2% lan prochain. La remonte est alimente par la reprise dans
les industries productrices de biens, notamment dans la fabrication et la
construction qui utilisent toutes deux beaucoup ce type de services. La fin
des travaux de rnovation de laroport Jean-Lesage de Qubec devrait aussi
tre de bon augure pour lindustrie, mme si aucune nouvelle destination nest
encore annonce pour linstant.
Forte croissance, mais de courte dure, dans

laconstruction
Lactivit est forte cette anne dans le secteur de la construction, mais les
choses devraient se calmer prochainement. Le secteur de la construction
Qubec est en voie datteindre un taux de croissance de 2,6% cette anne,
unrecord depuis 2012, mais devrait retomber 1,3% en 2018, puis se maintenir
autour de ce taux jusquen 2021.
La croissance de cette anne vient des secteurs rsidentiel et non rsidentiel.

Les mises en chantier de logements devraient augmenter lgrement,
pour passer de 4770units en 2016 4850units en 2017, les gains
venant principalement du segment des logements collectifs. Cependant, les
perspectives de la construction rsidentielle sont plus ternes sur le reste de
lapriode prvisionnelle. En fait, les mises en chantier de logements devraient
diminuer tous les ans, paralllement au vieillissement de la population,
au relvement des taux dintrt et aux efforts de dsendettement des
consommateurs. LePhare de Qubec projet de 650M$ de quatre tours
usage mixte comprenant un htel, une salle de concert et des espaces publics
ferait du bien au secteur, mais les travaux, plusieurs fois retards, ne devraient
plus commencer cette anne.
Plusieurs projets en cours dans le segment non rsidentiel priv stimulent

aussi la croissance dans la construction, dont un nouveau complexe hospitalier
de 1,9G$ et la construction du nouvel Ikea et de lespace commercial autour.

Par ailleurs, le projet Beauport 2020 dagrandissement du port de Qubec

reprsente un risque la hausse pour nos perspectives dinvestissement non
rsidentiel. Il fait actuellement lobjet dvaluations environnementales.
Enfin, le secteur public contribue lui aussi la construction non rsidentielle

avec des projets tels que llargissement et la rfection de lautoroute Henri-IV,
qui devrait coter entre 400et 500M$. Le plan dinfrastructure triennal de
Qubec favorisera aussi la croissance.
La fabrication en tte
Aprs une croissance de 5% en 2014 et de 2,5% en 2015, la production
dusecteur manufacturier de Qubec a nettement ralenti en 2016 et est
retombe 1%. Cependant, cette baisse na pas dur, puisque le secteur
devrait afficher une croissance de 5,1% cette anne, soit la plus importante
en12ans. Non seulement la faiblesse du dollar canadien alimente la croissance
de ce secteur exportateur, mais les investissements consentis pour augmenter
les capacits, automatiser les procds et diversifier loffre de produits semblent
payer. En fait, des entreprises locales dans des sous-secteurs comme celui
de la fabrication de fournitures mdicales ou de produits lectroniques ont
augment leur production dernirement. Qui plus est, les aciries locales
continuent de profiter de la construction du pont Champlain de Montral.
Nousprvoyons pour 2018 une croissance de 2,5%, ce qui est proche
delamoyenne long terme de lindustrie.

VILLE DE QUBEC
Graphique 1 Graphique 2
Perspectives demploi Prvisions relatives au PIB
2017 2018-2021 2017 2018-2021

(taux de croissance annuel) (taux de croissance (taux de croissance annuel) (taux de croissance
annuel compos) annuel compos)
Admin. publique 4,0 1,9 Admin. publique 2,4 2,5
Services non Services non

5,4 3,9 2,0 1,8
commerciaux commerciaux
Services personnels 2,3 1,9 Services personnels 3,3 2,1
Services aux Services aux

13,8 0,2 1,6 2,1
entreprises entreprises
Fin., ass. et immob. 26,7 3,1 Fin., ass. et immob. 3,0 2,1
Culture et information 51,8 11,9 Culture et information 1,4 0,9
Transp. et entrepos. 90,6 9,6 Transp. et entrepos. 3,1 1,7
Commerce de gros Commerce de gros

et de dtail 10,4 3,3 et de dtail 4,3 2,3
Industriel 3,7 2,7 Industriel 3,8 1,9
Total 1,6 1,3 Total 2,9 1,8
80 40 0 40 80 120 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3
Source : Le Conference Board du Canada. Source : Le Conference Board du Canada.

VILLE DE QUBEC
Tableau 1 Tableau 2
Emplois par secteur Principales industries, 2016
(milliers)
Employs
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Classe* Industrie (milliers)
Nombre total demplois 433,6 442,7 438,6 445,5 454,2 460,5 465,3 469,2 4411-4543 Commerce de dtail 58,0
1,2 2,1 0,9 1,6 1,9 1,4 1,0 0,8
9120 Gouvernement provincial 37,1
Secteur des biens 60,2 65,2 59,0 56,8 62,2 62,7 63,0 63,2
6220 Hpitaux 30,6
4,5 8,3 9,5 3,7 9,6 0,7 0,5 0,3
2311-2329 Construction 22,5
Fabrication 31,3 33,8 31,0 30,9 33,6 33,3 33,6 33,9
9,9 8,2 8,5 0,2 8,8 0,8 0,9 0,8 6112-6117 Services denseignement postsecondaire 18,4
Construction 23,4 25,9 22,5 22,0 23,9 24,5 24,6 24,6 6241-6244 Assistance sociale 16,8
6,5 10,6 13,0 2,3 9,0 2,4 0,3 0,0 4111-4191 Commerce de gros 15,0
Industrie primaire et services publics 5,6 5,5 5,5 3,9 4,7 4,8 4,8 4,8 6111 coles primaires et secondaires 14,9
32,7 0,9 0,5 29,0 19,0 3,6 0,6 0,9
5511, 5611-5612, Autres serv. de gestion et admin. 14,6
Secteur des services 373,3 377,5 379,6 388,7 391,9 397,8 402,3 405,9 5615-5617, 5619,
0,7 1,1 0,6 2,4 0,8 1,5 1,1 0,9 5621-5629
Transports et entreposage 14,4 13,1 9,8 18,6 12,9 12,4 12,4 12,4 6211-6219 Serv. de soins ambulat. 14,2
22,1 8,9 25,4 90,6 30,7 3,5 0,1 0,3
*Systme de classification des industries de lAmrique du Nord
Industrie de linformation et 6,5 5,5 7,8 3,8 6,2 6,0 5,9 5,9 Source : Statistique Canada.
industrie culturelle 14,0 15,7 41,5 51,8 64,2 3,1 0,7 0,8
Commerce de gros et de dtail 61,7 64,9 73,0 65,4 70,7 72,7 73,6 74,5
0,2 5,2 12,6 10,4 8,1 2,9 1,2 1,1
Graphique 3
Finance, assurances et immobilier 31,6 32,3 28,0 35,5 31,6 31,6 31,4 31,4
Variabilit du march de lemploi
0,1 2,1 13,0 26,7 11,0 0,1 0,5 0,3
Services aux entreprises 54,4 53,3 48,7 55,4 53,1 53,7 54,4 54,9
Fluctuations Comparativement au Canada
4,8 2,0 8,7 13,8 4,2 1,1 1,4 1,0
Services personnels 60,6 56,4 58,8 60,1 61,3 63,0 64,0 64,8
Ville de Qubec 286
8,5 6,9 4,3 2,3 2,0 2,6 1,6 1,3
Canada 100
Services non commerciaux 98,2 105,2 103,4 97,8 107,3 109,4 111,7 113,8
3,5 7,2 1,7 5,4 9,7 2,0 2,1 1,8
0 100 200 300
Administration publique 46,0 46,9 50,1 52,1 48,8 49,0 48,7 48,3
5,9 1,8 7,0 4,0 6,3 0,4 0,7 0,9
Non lies au
Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr. Canada 39 %
Les donnes sur lemploi figurant sur la premire ligne sont exprimes en milliers; la deuxime ligne reflte la variation en pourcentage.
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada. Lies au Canada 61 %
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada.

VILLE DE QUBEC
Tableau 3 Tableau 4
Construction, immobilier commercial et revenus Aperu Immobilier
Permis de construire
(milliers $) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1 558 738 1 741 269 1 710 088 1 686 712 1 697 118 1 764 383 1 484 093 1 406 373 1 575 673 March du logement neuf (2016)
Rsidentiel 901 273 1 090 972 1 181 583 1 095 656 1 163 707 929 440 1 016 958 943 045 1 092 381 Nombre total de logements unifamiliaux couls 198
Croissance 58,1 %
Non rsidentiel 657 465 650 297 528 505 591 056 533 411 834 943 467 135 463 328 483 292
Prix moyen des units unifamiliales coules 383 914 $
Industriel 120 633 46 150 98 176 93 967 70 680 103 362 47 663 62 102 87 734
Croissance 2,1 %
Commercial 398 054 499 143 306 572 422 525 358 626 562 365 322 468 274 311 268 394
March de la revente (2016)
Admin publique 138 778 105 004 123 757 74 564 104 105 169 216 97 004 126 915 127 164
et non comm. Ventes dunits 6 722
Croissance 1,6 %
Secteur des bureaux*
Prix moyen 265 009 $
Nbre de pieds carrs s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. Croissance 0,1 %
(milliers)
Variation en % s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. March des appartements (octobre 2016)
Taux dinoccupation (%) s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. s.o. Taux dinoccupation des appartements deux chambres 5,4 %
Loyer moyen dun appartement deux chambres 823 $
Emplois (milliers) 131 126 137 138 140 140 139 138 135
Variation en % 7,2 3,1 8,5 0,9 1,4 0,2 1,1 0,4 2,4 Sources : Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL;
Fdration des chambres immobilires du Qubec.
Faillites
Particuliers 2 123 2 469 1 956 1 792 1 755 1 867 1 748 1 926 1 919
Entreprises 185 126 124 126 113 131 147 135 146
Graphique 5
*Industrie de linformation et industrie culturelle; finance, assurances et immobilier; services aux entreprises et administration publique. Structure conomique, 2016
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada; Industrie Canada; CBRE.
Trs diversifie = 1
Graphique 4 Non diversifie = 0
Revenu personnel par habitant, 2016
Ville de
(milliers $)
Qubec
0,68
Canada 46,2
Qubec 42,1
Ville de Qubec 45,7

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Sources : Statistque Canada; Le Conference Board du Canada.

VILLE DE QUBEC
Graphique 6 Tableau 5
Sources de migration Tableau comparatif de lemploi, 2016
(part du nombre total demplois)
Internationale Interprovinciale Interurbaine
Prvision
Secteur Ville de Qubec Qubec Canada
8 000
Industriel 0,13 0,20 0,21
6 000
Bureaux 0,31 0,25 0,25
4 000
2 000 Transports et entreposage 0,02 0,05 0,05
0 Commerce de gros et de dtail 0,17 0,16 0,15
2 000 Services personnels 0,13 0,13 0,13
2014 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p
Services non commerciaux 0,24 0,21 0,20
Total 1,00 1,00 1,00

p = prvision
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada. Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada.
Mises en chantier Lemploi en perspective
(2011 = 1,0) (2011 = 1,0)
Ville de Qubec Canada Ville de Qubec Canada

Prvision Prvision
1,2 1,2
1,1 1,1
1,0
1,0
0,9
0,8 0,9
0,7 0,8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p
p = prvision p = prvision
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL. Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada.
Montral (franais)
Rsum du chapitre
La croissance du PIB rel Montral est en voie datteindre 3,2% cette anne,
sa plus forte expansion annuelle depuis le tournant du sicle.
Lemploi a progress de 1,6% en 2016. Les perspectives court terme sont

analogues: nous nous attendons des gains moyens de 1,6% par an en
2017et 2018.
De robustes gains dans lemploi et les revenus donnent un coup de pouce

auxdpenses de consommation cette anne.

MONTRAL

et classement
h
Laugmentation du nombre de mises en
(%)
chantier de logements cette anne et en 2018
2016 2017 2018-2021 2012-2021 contribuera la forte croissance du secteur
delaconstruction.
1,8 3,2 1,8 1,8
Sur 13 RMR No 7 No 6 No 11 No 10
h
Le taux de chmage devrait atteindre un creux
Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr. record de 6,6% cette anne.
Qualit du crdit AA
Risque conjoncturel
Cot relatif du logement
i
(par rapport la moyenne nationale) Les rengociations de lALNA posent un risque
nos prvisions. De nouveaux droits de douanes
2016 ou des restrictions au commerce pourraient nuire
Accession la proprit 0,76 lconomie locale.
Location 0,82
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(M$ de 2007) 1,3 1,4 1,8 3,2 2,0 2,0 1,7 1,6
0,5 1,1 1,6 3,2 0,1 1,4 0,9 0,7
Taux de chmage (%) 8,2 8,5 7,6 6,6 6,5 6,4 6,4 6,5
2,7 3,1 2,4 3,6 2,1 2,6 2,4 2,3
1,0 0,8 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,9
Mises en chantier 18 672 18 744 17 834 19 674 18 961 18 648 17 912 17 429
Ventes au dtail (M$) 49 703 50 853 53 030 54 870 56 028 57 176 58 286 59 226
2,6 2,3 4,3 3,5 2,1 2,0 1,9 1,6
IPC (2002 = 1,0) 1,232 1,249 1,259 1,277 1,304 1,331 1,358 1,386
1,5 1,4 0,8 1,5 2,1 2,0 2,1 2,1


Montral | Le Conference Board du Canada
Des vaches maigres aux vaches grasses

Aprs cinq annes conscutives de modeste
croissance annuelle 1,6%, en moyenne
lconomie montralaise a finalement repris
delavigueur. En fait, le PIB rel devrait
crotrede 3,2% cette anne, un taux
ingal au cours des 17dernires annes.
Malheureusement, selon nos prvisions,
lacroissance conomique ralentira en 2018
et2019 2,0% et mme encore plus durant
lereste de la priode prvisionnelle mesure
que la population vieillira et que les dpenses
deconsommation diminueront.
Lamlioration que connat Montral cette anne est alimente par la reprise
du secteur des biens, qui devrait renouer avec la croissance pour la premire
fois depuis 2012. Lactivit manufacturire, en particulier, devrait sacclrer
aprs deux annes de gains mdiocres, tandis que lon sattend ce que la
production du secteur de la construction dpasse le taux dexpansion de 2,1%
de lan dernieravec une trs vigoureuse progression de 3,1%. Lindustrie
manufacturire profite de la solidit de sous-secteurs tels que la fabrication
deproduits pharmaceutiques et la fabrication dquipements automatiques,
tandis que le secteur de la construction est stimul par plusieurs grands projets
non rsidentiels et une reprise de la construction rsidentielle.
cette nouvelle vigueur dans le secteur des biens se rajoute un rythme

de croissance plus rapide dans les services cette anne. Le secteur des
transports et de lentreposage troitement li aux hauts et aux bas de lactivit
manufacturire et du secteur de la construction va prendre la tte avec une
progression du PIB de 6,7% cette anne, sa troisime expansion conscutive
de plus de 6,0%.

Il nest pas surprenant que ces robustes performances conomiques aient des
rsultats positifs sur le front de lemploi. Nous nous attendons une croissance
annuelle de lemploi de 1,6% en moyenne en 2017 et 2018 et une baisse
dutaux de chmage, qui va passer de 7,6% en 2016 un creux record de
6,5% lan prochain.
Des grues perte de vue

Aprs les dboires de ces dernires annes, le secteur montralais de la
construction semble avoir pris un nouveau tournant. En effet, lan dernier, il a
enregistr une progression de lemploi de 5,1% et sa production a augment
pour la premire fois depuis 2012. Cette anne sannonce encore meilleure
dufait que les mises en chantier de logements dans la rgion mtropolitaine
sont en voie datteindre leur plus haut niveau en cinq ans et que le secteur
delaconstruction non rsidentielle continue tourner plein rgime grce
des investissements aussi bien privs que publics. Dans lensemble, on
sattend ce que la production de ce secteur grimpe de 3,1% en 2017 et
de2,1% lanprochain.
Les investissements publics resteront un moteur cl de la croissance du

secteur cette anne et en 2018 mesure que les chantiers de vastes projets
dinfrastructure atteignent leur vitesse de croisire. Dimportants travaux ont
dj t effectus cette anne sur les voies daccs ouest et est du nouveau
pont Champlain et ils devraient prendre fin lt prochain. La section haubane
du pont est galement en voie dtre acheve avant la fin de lanne prochaine.
Parmi les autres projets qui progressent, citons lchangeur Turcot, au cot
de3,7G$, le recouvrement de lautoroute Ville-Marie, et le ramnagement de
lchangeur Dorval. Les deux derniers projets devraient tre termins avant la
fin de lanne. plus long terme, il y aura le projet de construction, Montral,
dun systme lger sur rail (SLR) au cot de 6G$, pour lequel un financement
provincial et fdral a dores et dj t prvu. La construction devrait
commencer avant la fin de lanne, mais des retards sont possibles dufait
quele projet est repouss par une coalition dactivistes, de rsidents et de
syndicats. Nous nous attendons, nanmoins, ce que les effets conomiques
du projet se fassent sentir dici quelques annes.

Les investissements privs non rsidentiels alimenteront aussi la croissance

durant la priode de prvision. Parmi les projets importants, il y a la
construction, au cot de 1,5G$, dun immeuble usage mixte baptis Solar
Uniquartier sur la rive sud de Montral dont lachvement est prvu pour
2027 et lengagement de Bell, hauteur de 854M$, de dvelopper son
infrastructure de communication et de permettre 1,1million de rsidences
etdentreprises daccder un rseau optique large bande dici 2022.
Finalement, la construction rsidentielle a t vigoureuse cette anne et cette

tendance devrait se poursuivre court terme. Les bonnes perspectives de
lemploi et de lconomie expliquent sans doute la baisse du stock de logements
multifamiliaux et le resserrement du march de la revente, qui sont, lune comme
lautre, un encouragement construire de nouvelles maisons. Au total, nous
nous attendons ce que les mises en chantier de logements grimpent prs de
19700 units cette anne, leur plus haut niveau depuis 2012. Lanne qui vient
sannonce presque aussi bonne, mais laugmentation graduelle des taux dintrt
devrait freiner lgrement la demande. On prvoit 19000 mises en chantier
pour 2018.
Bonnes perspectives pour la fabrication, mais des

nuages se profilent
Les performances du secteur montralais de la fabrication ont t dcevantes
tout au long de la dernire dcennie, mme dans les dernires annes alors
que les conditions macroconomiques taient favorables grce la bonne sant
de la demande amricaine et la baisse du dollar canadien. Malgr ces aspects
positifs, la production du secteur a recul de 1,2% par an en moyenne depuis
2006 et elle est maintenant infrieure denviron un cinquime ce quelle tait
en 2000. Il est probable que le faible niveau de confiance des entreprises et
lemanque dinvestissements dans laugmentation des capacits qui sensuit
ait contribu ces mauvais rsultats.
Le secteur a, toutefois, fini par donner des signes de vie cette anne, et la
production devrait atteindre 4,0% grce la solidit de secteurs tels que
la fabrication de produits pharmaceutiques la fabrication dquipements
dautomatisation. Cependant, les perspectives du secteur de la fabrication
de produits et pices aronautiques qui joue un rle cl dans la rgion
mtropolitaine sont assombries par la dcision du dpartement du commerce

des tats-Unis dimposer des droits compensatoires de 220 % sur les avions
de Bombardier. Plus tt cette anne, les avions de la C Series avaient retenu
lattention internationale grce des meilleures performances que prvu.
Sicette dcision prliminaire est soutenue, cela pourrait mettre en pril
lentende de 5,6 G$ conclue avec Delta.
Nous nous attendons ce que la croissance se poursuivre lan prochain et pour

le reste de la priode prvisionnelle, mais des taux beaucoup plus modrs,
dont une avance de 2,0% en 2018. Malgr ces perspectives positives, des
nuages assombrissent lhorizon mesure que les ngociations de lALNA
avancent. De nouvelles entraves au commerce nuiraient au secteur montralais
de la fabrication, ax sur lexportation.
Les services soutiendront la croissance

Montral, les industries productrices de services restent un important moteur
de croissance qui a aid compenser les difficults du secteur des biens.
En effet, limpressionnant gain de la production de 2,8% de lan dernier sera
dpass cette anne par une croissance encore plus leve de 3,3%, la plus
forte en 17ans. Le secteur des services finira toutefois par ralentir lan prochain,
avec un gain de 2,0%, selon nos prvisions. court terme, la croissance sera
soutenue par les services de transport et dentreposage, lindustrie de la finance,
des assurances et de limmobilier, ainsi que par les services aux entreprises.
Les industries productrices de services enregistreront galement des gains
importants dans lemploi cette anne, avec plus de 55000nouveaux postes
quigrossiront les effectifs.
Les services de transport et dentreposage vont prendre la tte jusquen

2018 du fait que ce secteur continuera profiter de la reprise des industries
productrices de biens; la demande de transports ferroviaires, ariens et
routiers sera alimente par les activits croissantes du secteur de la fabrication
et de la construction. Le transport de tourisme et le transport en commun
contribueront galement la croissance cette anne grce la forte activit
touristique engendre dans toute la rgion mtropolitaine par les clbrations
du 375e anniversaire de la ville. Les nouvelles lignes de transport maritimes
entre Montral et les ports europens suite la mise en uvre provisoire

de lAccord conomique et commercial global entre le Canada et lUE

ycontribueront aussi. Au total, le secteur est en voie dafficher une croissance
de la production de 6,7% cette anne et de 2,2% en 2018.
Le secteur montralais de la finance, des assurances et de limmobilier

maintiendra galement un rythme de saine croissance. Le dynamisme
dusecteur financier de la rgion ainsi que la demande accrue de services
immobiliers (grce aux meilleures perspectives du march du logement)
contribueront au taux dexpansion de 4,2% de cette anne. Des gains de
production plus lents mais toujours vigoureux de 2,6% devraient suivre en 2018.
Pour terminer, nous nous attendons ce que les services aux entreprises
progressent de 3,4% cette anne et de 2,5% lan prochain. Les bonnes
perspectives conomiques de tous les secteurs stimuleront la demande
dintrants essentiels aux entreprises, tels que les services dingnierie,
daidejuridique, de comptabilit, de gestion et dadministration.

MONTRAL
Perspectives demploi Prvisions relatives au PIB
2017 2018-2021 2017 2018-2021

(taux de croissance annuel) (taux de croissance (taux de croissance annuel) (taux de croissance
annuel compos) annuel compos)
Admin, publique 1,1 1,9 Admin. publique 0,6 0,9
Services non Services non

5,2 1,1 2,2 1,0
commerciaux commerciaux
Services personnels 2,2 2,5 Services personnels 3,2 2,4
Services aux Services aux

3,1 1,1 3,4 2,3
entreprises entreprises
Fin,, ass, et immob, 4,3 0,7 Fin., ass. et immob. 4,2 2,5
Culture et information 9,1 2,2 Culture et information 0,8 0,1
Transp, et entrepos, 3,9 1,7 Transp. et entrepos. 6,7 2,0
Commerce de gros Commerce de gros

et de dtail 6,8 0,1 3,2 1,7
et de dtail
Industriel 3,2 0,4 Industriel 2,8 1,8
Total 3,2 0,7 Total 3,2 1,8
5 0 5 10 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3
Source : Le Conference Board du Canada. Source : Le Conference Board du Canada.

MONTRAL
Tableau 1 Tableau 2
Emplois par secteur Principales industries, 2016
(milliers)
Employs
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Classe* Industrie (milliers)
Nombre total demplois 2 018,4 2 040,3 2 072,8 2 139,2 2 140,4 2 169,5 2 188,6 2 204,0 4411-4543 Commerce de dtail 246,4
0,5 1,1 1,6 3,2 0,1 1,4 0,9 0,7
7221-7224 Services de restauration et dbits 127,5
Secteur des biens 356,0 342,1 344,5 355,4 365,6 361,2 361,1 360,5 deboissons
4,2 3,9 0,7 3,2 2,9 1,2 0,0 0,2 2311-2329 Construction 101,4
Fabrication 224,1 226,6 224,2 225,9 238,2 232,5 231,9 230,9 6220 Hpitaux 100,7
0,6 1,1 1,1 0,7 5,5 2,4 0,3 0,4
4111-4191 Commerce de gros 94,9
Construction 106,7 96,4 101,3 109,5 111,2 111,7 112,3 112,7
6111 coles primaires et secondaires 76,7
9,7 9,7 5,1 8,0 1,6 0,4 0,5 0,4
6241-6244 Assistance sociale 76,3
Industrie primaire et services publics 25,1 19,1 18,9 20,1 16,1 17,0 17,0 16,9
9,8 24,0 0,8 6,0 19,8 5,6 0,3 0,6 5511, 5611-5612, Autres serv. de gestion et admin. 74,8
5615-5617, 5619,
Secteur des services 1 662,4 1 698,3 1 728,3 1 783,8 1 774,8 1 808,4 1 827,5 1 843,5
5621-5629
0,3 2,2 1,8 3,2 0,5 1,9 1,1 0,9
5211, 5221-5223, Autorits montaires et intermdiation 70,8
Transports et entreposage 97,1 110,0 116,9 112,3 116,7 119,0 119,8 120,1 5231-5239 devaleurs mobilires etactivits connexes
5,5 13,3 6,3 3,9 3,9 2,0 0,6 0,3
6112-6117 Services denseignement postsecondaire 66,1
Industrie de linformation et 64,1 60,2 58,8 64,1 60,9 60,1 59,5 58,7
industrie culturelle 1,2 6,0 2,4 9,1 5,0 1,3 1,1 1,3 *Systme de classification des industries de lAmrique du Nord
Source : Statistique Canada.
Commerce de gros et de dtail 337,6 340,0 341,7 365,0 350,8 358,1 360,8 363,1
1,5 0,7 0,5 6,8 3,9 2,1 0,7 0,7
Finance, assurances et immobilier 134,5 129,3 133,5 139,2 137,7 141,6 142,2 143,1
3,1 3,8 3,2 4,3 1,1 2,8 0,4 0,6 Graphique 3
Services aux entreprises 267,2 303,5 305,3 314,7 311,3 319,5 324,2 328,3
Variabilit du march de lemploi
3,0 13,6 0,6 3,1 1,1 2,6 1,5 1,3
Fluctuations Comparativement au Canada
Services personnels 269,9 266,7 280,5 274,4 284,7 292,7 297,9 302,3
1,7 1,2 5,2 2,2 3,8 2,8 1,8 1,5
Montral 153
Services non commerciaux 412,0 405,0 412,5 434,1 440,6 442,9 448,9 453,6
0,0 1,7 1,8 5,2 1,5 0,5 1,3 1,0 Canada 100
Administration publique 80,0 83,5 79,1 80,0 72,0 74,4 74,3 74,2
0 50 100 150 200
8,3 4,4 5,2 1,1 10,0 3,3 0,1 0,2

Les donnes sur lemploi figurant sur la premire ligne sont exprimes en milliers; la deuxime ligne reflte la variation en pourcentage. Non lies au
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada. Canada 22 %
Lies au Canada 78 %

MONTRAL
Tableau 3 Tableau 4
Construction, immobilier commercial et revenus Aperu Immobilier
Permis de construire
(milliers $) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 6 442 007 5 792 087 6 567 155 7 858 141 7 833 398 7 664 210 8 975 130 6 956 865 7 402 984 March du bureau au centre-ville (t4, 2016)
Rsidentiel 4 252 440 3 728 446 4 481 964 4 958 149 4 786 558 4 212 463 4 116 407 4 034 727 4 358 892 Taux dinoccupation de catgorie A 10,6 %
Loyer net moyen de classe A ($/pi2) 21,21 $
Non rsidentiel 2 189 567 2 063 641 2 085 191 2 899 992 3 046 840 3 451 747 4 858 723 2 922 138 3 044 092
March du bureau en banlieue (t4, 2016)
Industriel 331 268 271 462 261 850 328 509 523 218 428 381 632 201 412 723 387 213
Taux dinoccupation de catgorie A 18,4 %
Commercial 1 388 189 1 172 757 1 160 405 1 984 942 1 743 633 1 818 148 1 579 552 1 657 754 1 600 843
Loyer net moyen de classe A ($/pi2) 15,63 $
Admin publique 470 110 619 422 662 936 586 541 779 989 1 205 218 2 646 970 851 661 1 056 036
et non comm. March industriel (t4, 2016)
Taux de disponibilit global 7,2 %

Secteur des bureaux*
Loyer net moyen ($/pi2) 5,29 $
Nbre de pieds carrs 42 186 42 350 43 081 43 126 42 771 42 759 43 350 43 782 43 587
(milliers) March de lappartement (octobre 2016)
Variation en % 1,0 0,4 1,7 0,1 0,8 0,0 1,4 1,0 0,4 Taux dinoccupation deux chambres coucher 4,6 %
Taux dinoccupation (%) 5,7 8,7 8,1 6,4 6,9 8,2 10,4 11,2 10,6 Loyer moyen dun appartement avec deux chambres coucher 792 $
Emplois (milliers) 521 531 555 527 548 545 546 577 577 Sources : CBRE; Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL.
Variation en % 1,9 1,9 4,5 5,0 4,0 0,6 0,2 5,7 0,0
Faillites
Particuliers 13 909 16 770 14 246 12 833 12 003 11 930 11 055 10 764 10 178 Graphique 5
Entreprises 1 137 1 095 875 902 873 905 887 831 819 Structure conomique, 2016
*Industrie de linformation et industrie culturelle; finance, assurances et immobilier; services aux entreprises et administration publique.
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada; Industrie Canada; CBRE.
Trs diversifie = 1
Non diversifie = 0
Graphique 4
Montral
Revenu personnel par habitant, 2016 0,91
(milliers $)
Canada 46,2
Qubec 42,1
Montral 43,3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Sources : Statistque Canada; Le Conference Board du Canada.

MONTRAL
Graphique 6 Tableau 5
Sources de migration Tableau comparatif de lemploi, 2016
(part du nombre total demplois)
Internationale Interprovinciale Interurbaine
Prvision
Secteur Montral Qubec Canada
50 000
Industriel 0,17 0,20 0,21
25 000 Bureaux 0,28 0,25 0,25
Transports et entreposage 0,06 0,05 0,05

0
Commerce de gros et de dtail 0,16 0,16 0,15
25 000 Services personnels 0,14 0,13 0,13
2014 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p
Services non commerciaux 0,20 0,21 0,20
Total 1,00 1,00 1,00

p = prvision
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada. Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada.
Mises en chantier Lemploi en perspective
(2011 = 1,0) (2011 = 1,0)
Montral Canada Montral Canada

Prvision Prvision
1,2 1,2
1,1
1,0
1,0
0,8
0,9
0,6 0,8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17p 18p 19p 20p 21p
p = prvision p = prvision
Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Sries chronologiques sur le march de lhabitation de la SCHL. Sources : Le Conference Board du Canada; Statistique Canada.
Ontario
Summary
Real GDP growth is on track to reach 2.9per cent in 2017 but then slow
to2.2per cent in 2018.
Household consumption continues to support Ontarios economy, but a

slowdown looms, with projected advances of 3.0per cent in 2017 and
2.0percent in 2018.
Government spending is expected to be robust over the next two years.

Business investment will finally rebound next year, thanks to stronger
spendingon non-residential structures and on machinery and equipment.

Ontario | The Conference Board of Canada
ONTARIO

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Ontarios exports will strengthen next year.
2.4 2.9 2.1 2.1
i
Residential investment will level off over the
Credit Quality
nearterm.
A+
Forecast Risk
i
Protectionist rhetoric from the United States,
including the renegotiation of NAFTA,
increases the uncertainty around our outlook
for Ontarios export-oriented industries,
particularlymanufacturing.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1
0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.6
Population (000s) 13,671 13,786 13,961 14,155 14,305 14,446 14,584 14,721
1.0 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
5.8 5.5 7.1 6.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.259 1.274 1.297 1.318 1.342 1.371 1.400 1.429
2.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1


Ontarios Economy Pushing Ahead

Ontarios economy will continue to grow at a
healthy pace in the near term, though real GDP
growth is forecast to slow from 2.9per cent in
2017 to 2.2per cent in 2018.
Households continue to be a key driver of growth, with this years gain partly
fuelled by lower hydro bills. But the spending party cannot last. Although Ontario
is expected to create more than 130,000jobs over the next two years, which
will support sound wage increases, the combination of rising interest rates and
highly indebted households will put a damper on consumer spending next year.
The public sector will be another driver of growth in the near term, as the
federal and provincial governments remain committed to boosting infrastructure
investment. The 201718 provincial budget released in Aprilthe first balanced
budget in a decadeearmarked about $15billion in infrastructure spending for
the current fiscal year.
Business investment is also on track to post impressive growth of 4.1per cent

this year, thanks largely to a blistering start to the year for the Greater Toronto
Areas housing market. But housing markets have cooled considerably in recent
months, as the provincial governments measures aimed at cooling red-hot real
estate markets have had their desired effect. This cooling trend is expected to
continue in 2018, especially with mortgage rates on the rise, leading to a 1.7per
cent decline in residential investment. Still, overall business investment growth
will remain positive next year thanks to stronger investment in non-residential
structures and in machinery and equipment.
Trade will be weak in 2017, with exports expected to post a meagre 0.4per cent
increase following sound growth last year. Fortunately, exports should recover
in 2018. The U.S. economy is set to expand at a healthy clip next year, although
export growth will be held back somewhat by the fact that U.S. vehicle sales
have peaked.

Ontario | The Conference Board of Canada
Consumers Continue to Spend

Household consumption is poised to increase by 3.0per cent this year, despite
heavy debt loads. A decent labour market, still-low interest rates, and steady
wage and salary increases are bolstering growth in household disposable
income, giving households the opportunity to spend more, especially on durable
goods. Spending on durable goods is expected to increase a solid 5.9per cent
this year following a 7.5per cent advance in 2016.
Still, there are signs that high household debt loads across the province and
elevated house prices in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region are taking their
toll on consumers. According to July data from the Conference Boards Index
of Consumer Confidence, only 28per cent of households believe this is a good
time to make a big-ticket purchase. Factors like this, combined with a 5.7per
cent decline in housing starts in 2018, will temper demand for appliances and
furniture. As a result, spending growth on durable goods is forecast to slow
to1.6per cent next year, while total household consumption growth will slow
to2.0per cent.
Chart 1
(2011 = 1.0)
Ontario Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast

Exports Disappoint
Ontarios exports to other countries were hampered last year by global
economic weakness and remained essentially flat in the first quarter of this
year.Fortunately, global economic growth has picked up in recent months,
fostering optimism about the provinces near-term trade outlook. In addition,
the Canadian dollar remains below parity with the U.S. dollar, making Canadian
goods moreattractive abroad.
That said, export growth will be somewhat held back by the fact that many
manufacturers lack the capacity to increase production; stronger business
investment is necessary for a more pronounced pickup in exports. Moreover,
the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) poses
some downside risk to our outlook. In all, exports of goods and services (to both
other countries and provinces) are expected to advance 2.7per cent next year.
Chart 2

Office 2.5
Industrial 1.8
Total 2.2
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

OttawaGatineau
Summary
OttawaGatineaus real GDP is forecast to grow 2.5per cent in 2017and2.2per

cent in 2018, the strongest back-to-back increases since 200708.
The economy is expected to generate an average of 9,100 jobs per year this
year and next, up from an annual average of 5,900 net new jobs in the previous
five years.
The job gains should be enough to outpace increases in the labour force,
pushing the unemployment rate down from 6.5per cent in 2016 to 6.1per
centby 2018.

OTTAWAGATINEAU

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 The federal public service is in hiring mode.
1.9 2.5 2.1 1.6
Out of 13 CMAs #6 #11 #8 #11
i
Retail sales growth should slow next year, partly
because of rising interest rates.
Credit Quality AA+


2016
i
High federal government budget deficits may
Homeownership 0.78 require greater spending restraint over the
next few years, limiting job gains in the federal
Rental 1.25
publicservice.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
1.7 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9
0.3 2.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 3.1 2.8 2.9
Population (000s) 1,317 1,330 1,351 1,372 1,388 1,405 1,420 1,436
1.1 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
2.9 3.9 5.7 5.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.5
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.253 1.265 1.281 1.302 1.327 1.356 1.384 1.413
2.0 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1


OttawaGatineau | The Conference Board of Canada
Sunny Days
With many key pillars of OttawaGatineaus
economy enjoying solid advances this year, real
GDP is on track to increase by 2.5per cent, the
fastest rate of growth in seven years. Although
economic growth is projected to moderate in
2018, it will remain healthy at 2.2per cent.
These gains are a big improvement over the previous five years, when annual
growth averaged a disappointing 1.2per cent. In fact, if our forecast proves to
beaccurate, the 201718 growth will be the strongest back-to-back increases
since 200708.
The pickup in the economy starts with the National Capital Regions largest
industrypublic administration. A big increase in federal government spending
has been accompanied by a significant upswing in local public service hiring.
Following several years of cutbacks, public administration employment has
increased strongly since 2016. The construction industry has been another
important driver of growth this year, thanks especially to strong showings from
the residential and governmental sectors. Meanwhile, the tourism industry has
been enjoying a banner year, as visitors have flocked to the capital to participate
in events to celebrate Canadas 150thbirthday. Finally, the local high-tech sector
has been another key economic contributor, as it continues to grow and diversify
into other areas besides telecommunications.
The strong economic conditions have translated into a good year for
OttawaGatineaus labour market; some 11,000 net new jobs are expected
tobeadded to payrolls in 2017, up from an annual average of 5,900 net new
jobsin the previous five years. The positive momentum should continue
next year as the economy generates an additional 7,100 net new jobs.
Theemployment gains should be sufficient to outpace increases in the labour
force, particularly given that retirement rates are on the rise. This will push
theunemployment rate down from 6.5per cent in 2016 to6.1 per cent by 2018.

Public Administration Growing and Hiring

Few metro areas in Canada are as dependent on one industry as
OttawaGatineau is on public administration. This sector is the source of
onefifth of the regions jobs and over a quarter of its GDP. The fact that this
industry is expanding solidly and hiring at a brisk pace is obviously great news
for the region. Indeed, public administration output is projected to climb at an
average annual clip of 2.9per cent per year from 2016 to 2018, leading to the
creation of 10,000jobs over this three-year span. This is a sharp turnaround
from the previous five years (201115), when output fell by 0.2per cent per year
and 14,200 jobs disappeared. The reversal of fortune mirrors trends in federal
government spendingit inched up by just 0.6per cent per year over 201115,
as the government of the day focused on balancing its books, but is poised to
increase by 3.6per cent annually over 201618, with the current government
focusing on stimulating the economy and investing in infrastructure.
Although we expect local public administration output growth to slow over the
final three years of the forecast, the sector is expected to add an additional
7,600 workers to its payrolls by 2021. This would lift sectoral employment to
161,600 by the of the forecast. However, there is downside risk to this outlook,
as high budget deficits may require greater spending restraint over the medium
term, thus limiting job gains in the federal public service.
Other Services Also Buoyant

Public administration is far from the only services industry enjoying buoyant
activity this year. For instance, the tourism industry is having a banner year,
asbig events to mark Canadas 150th birthday have drawn visitors from far
and wide. Some of the major events that have already taken place include
Red Bull Crashed Ice, the Juno Awards, La Machine street theatre, and a
supersized Canada Day. Events still to come include the CFLs Grey Cup and
an NHL outdoor game. However, tourism activity will undoubtedly slow in 2018.
Thesetrends explain our outlook for two industries that are the most reliant on
tourism: transportation and warehousing and personal services. Output growth
in these industries is tracking above 3per cent this year but is projected to be
closer to 2per cent next year.

Meanwhile, healthy job and income growth has lifted the spirits of consumers,
leading to vigorous gains in household spending over the past two years.
Infact, 2017 is expected to mark the second consecutive year in which retail
sales growth in OttawaGatineau exceeds 5per cent. This will translate into an
average annual increase of 4.5per cent in wholesale and retail trade output over
the same two-year period. However, the current pace of consumer spending is
unlikely to be sustained, given that households are highly leveraged and interest
rates are creeping up, implying more money will need to be set aside to pay
down debt. As a result, retail sales growth is forecast to slow to 2.4per cent
in 2018, leading to a more moderate increase of 2.1per cent in wholesale and
retail trade output.
Finally, good things are also happening in the regions high-tech sector, as
itcontinues to grow and diversify in other areas besides telecommunications.
Partly as a result, business services output, which includes computer systems
design services, is projected to expand by 1.9per cent in 2017 and by a further
2.9per cent in 2018.
One of the biggest local high-tech stories is the rapid expansion of Ottawa-
based Shopify Inc., producers of an e-commerce platform for small and
mediumsized businesses. The companys second-quarter 2017 financial results
blew past consensus estimates, as revenues increased 75 per cent year-over-
year to $151.7million. Shopify has been hiring so many people that it has
already outgrown the 170,000-square-foot head office it opened a mere three
years ago, and so earlier this year it signed a lease to take over an additional
325,000 square feet of office space nearby.
Ottawa is also making a push to become a Canadian hub for research

and development on new car technology, including autonomous vehicles.
InDecember 2016, BlackBerryQNX announced the opening of an autonomous
drive research facility in Ottawa, with plans to add as many as 650 employees
to its Ottawa operations. In addition, it was revealed in January that Apple
had leased 22,000 square feet of office space in Kanata to conduct research
for its automotive initiative dubbed Project Titan. And, in March, Ford
Motor Co. announced it would provide $337.9million in funding to set up a
research and engineering centre in Ottawa. As part of this announcement,

as many as 400employees moved from BlackBerry to Ford, with 300 of

those based in Canada. The team will focus its research efforts on connected
vehicletechnology.
Construction Industry Remains Busy

Ottawas construction sector has been another key contributor to economic
growth this year. Output is on track to climb by 3.0per cent in 2017, with the
gains powered by several high-profile government investment projects and
rebounding housing starts. Both these drivers should remain healthy over
thenear term, lifting construction output by a further 2.3per cent in 2018.
The industry continues to reap the rewards of large infrastructure investment

projects being undertaken by all levels of government, a trend that is expected
to continue for many years to come. The highest-profile project is the O-Train
light-rail transit system. The projects $1.2-billion first stage, the 12.5-kilometre
Confederation Line, is coming down the homestretch and scheduled to enter
service in 2018. Stage2, scheduled to start in 2019 and cost $3.5billion, will
see 38kilometres of rail built starting in 2019, with extensions added to both
the Confederation and Trillium lines. The project also includes the widening
ofHighway417 to accommodate bus detours when the Transitway shuts down
for rail conversion.
There are also many other major infrastructure projects currently under way
or in the pipeline. For instance, Parliament Hill is undergoing a makeover,
including the $862.9-million renovation of the West Block, a new $129.9-million
underground visitor welcome centre, and a $219-million renovation to the
Government Conference Centre. The federal government is also moving
forward with plans to rehabilitate the Supreme Court of Canada building,
at a cost of about $1billion. At the local level, Gatineau City Council has
voted to approve a $79-million arena complex that will feature a main rink
for the Gatineau Olympiques junior hockey team and three smaller rinks for
community use. On the other side of the river, Ottawa City Council is looking
at building a $168-million main library branch, in partnership with Library and
Archives Canada, as well as a $148-billion cross-town bus transitway along
BaselineRoad.

Not to be outdone, the residential side of the market is also adding to growth this
year, with the healthy economic climate boosting the demand for homes. Infact,
housing starts are expected to climb by 10.1per cent in 2017, reaching afour-
year high of 7,830 units. Although our call is for starts to ease to 7,500units
next year, in line with rising mortgage rates, this remains a healthy level that
nearly matches the previous 25-year average. Two-thirds of housing starts in
OttawaGatineau are typically multi-family dwellings. This share will likely rise
somewhat over the forecast, especially considering Ottawas plans to encourage
the construction of high-rise apartment buildings next to light-rail transit stations.

OTTAWAGATINEAU
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 1.5 1.6 Total 2.5 2.1
30 20 10 0 10 20 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
OTTAWAGATINEAU
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 707.2 710.9 718.2 729.3 736.4 750.1 763.1 777.4 911011 Federal government 133.3
1.7 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9
44114543 Retail trade 68.6
Goods sector 65.9 74.7 63.7 66.9 66.1 67.0 67.9 68.5
3.2 13.2 14.7 5.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.9
Manufacturing 24.3 23.2 22.8 23.9 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.7
3.9 4.3 1.8 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 6111 Primary and secondary schools 32.8
Construction 35.3 47.2 36.7 39.9 38.9 39.8 40.6 41.1 6220 Hospitals 31.8
Primary and utilities 6.3 4.2 4.2 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 611217 Post-secondary education 27.9
51.5 33.3 1.5 25.0 18.8 2.8 0.3 0.3
5415 Computer systems design services 24.0
Services sector 641.2 636.2 654.5 662.4 670.3 683.2 695.3 708.9
624144 Social Assistance 22.0
1.6 0.8 2.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.8 2.0
Transportation and warehousing 20.1 20.5 22.2 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.5 22.6 *North American Industrial Classification System
Source: Statistics Canada.
6.6 1.9 8.2 1.8 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.5
Information and cultural industries 17.8 17.0 15.1 11.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.8
7.7 4.3 11.4 21.1 16.9 0.9 0.1 0.2
Wholesale and retail trade 88.0 89.0 88.1 89.9 91.6 91.6 92.4 93.5 Chart 3
5.0 2.8 6.3 5.3 7.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 OttawaGatineau 223
Personal services 93.4 86.3 88.3 91.5 94.4 96.0 98.4 101.2 Canada 100
11.0 7.6 2.3 3.6 3.1 1.7 2.6 2.8
0 100 200 300
2.3 5.4 5.1 4.3 5.3 3.4 2.2 2.5
Public administration 148.6 143.9 149.8 167.9 153.9 157.2 159.1 161.6 No link to
0.0 3.1 4.1 12.1 8.3 2.1 1.2 1.5 Canada 34%
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change. Link to Canada 66%
OTTAWAGATINEAU
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Non-residential 901,989 948,341 1,178,032 929,091 1,247,782 1,184,189 1,183,649 1,101,254 1,200,608
Industrial 30,258 127,391 61,684 34,519 50,048 32,948 47,748 104,457 154,327
Commercial 564,669 562,185 842,327 666,994 932,098 954,206 817,497 746,073 791,491
Public admin. 307,062 258,765 274,021 227,578 265,636 197,035 318,404 250,724 254,790

Office sector*
No. of square feet 22,557 20,470 20,484 21,005 18,153 18,352 18,746 18,686 18,731
Vacancy rate (%) 2.2 3.6 4.0 5.3 6.1 7.2 8.8 9.6 10.2 Average two-bedroom rent $1,204.00
Bankruptcies
Consumer 3,764 4,130 2,950 2,657 2,543 2,629 2,494 2,412 2,381 Chart 5
Highly diverse = 1
Chart 4 Not diverse = 0
Ottawa
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 Gatineau
($ 000s) 0.38
Canada 46.2
Ontario 46.2
OttawaGatineau 49.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

OTTAWAGATINEAU
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector OttawaGatineau Ontario Canada
16,000
12,000
Office 0.42 0.28 0.25
8,000
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
OttawaGatineau Canada OttawaGatineau Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.2 1.2
1.1 1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8 0.9
0.7 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Toronto
Summary
Torontos economy is forecast to grow 3.7 per cent in 2017 and 2.5 per cent
in2018.
The healthy economic performance will be mirrored in the labour market, as

some 80,300 net new jobs are anticipated to be created over this year and next.
Personal disposable income per capita is forecast to grow by an annual average

of 2.3 per cent between 2017 and 2021, propelling annual retail sales growth of
3.7 per cent.
The demographic outlook is bright, with population growth forecast to come in

at1.9 per cent in 2017 and 1.5 per cent in 2018.

Toronto | The Conference Board of Canada
TORONTO

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 The provincial government is investing heavily
ininfrastructure, leading to vigorous construction
3.3 3.7 2.5 2.8
sector activity.
Out of 13 CMAs #2 #3 #1 #2
i
Housing starts are expected to fall this year
and next, in line with higher mortgage rates
Credit Quality AA andprovincial government cooling measures.

2016
i
Torontos export-oriented manufacturing sector
Homeownership 1.59 could be hurt by U.S. protectionist measures.
Rental 1.38
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4
0.1 3.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.0 1.8 2.0
2.7 4.5 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.9
Population (000s) 6,055 6,124 6,242 6,361 6,457 6,550 6,643 6,737
1.5 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
6.6 5.2 7.2 6.9 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.8
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.264 1.283 1.310 1.339 1.365 1.394 1.424 1.453
2.5 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1


Torontos Economy to Remain in

GoodShape
Torontos economy is firing on all cylinders this
year, but growth is set to slow in 2018. Real GDP
is forecast to grow 3.7per cent this year, the
fourth year in a row of above 3per cent growth.
Next year, economic growth will decelerate to
astill decent 2.5per cent.
The construction sector will remain active over the next two years, as robust
non-residential construction activity will more than offset cooling new home
construction. Meanwhile, the export-oriented manufacturing sector will remain
inpositive territory, thanks to a low Canadian dollar and a healthy U.S. economy.
On the services side of the economy, the wholesale and retail trade sector and
the finance, insurance, and real estate sector will continue to lead the way this
year and next, although output growth in each is forecast to sharply moderate
next year. The demographic outlook is equally bright. Toronto will remain
the main destination for immigrants moving to Canada, underpinning solid
domesticdemand.
Torontos high-flying labour market shows no signs of slowing down. The

economy has pumped out some 253,100 net new jobs since 2013, including
38,250 last year. The economy is expected to generate a further 80,300 net
new jobs in 201718. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from
7.0per cent in 2016 to 6.7per cent in 2018.
Services Sector Growth Slowing but Still Healthy

Torontos services sector has seen strong growth in recent years, with output
expanding by an average of 3.7per cent per year between 2014 and 2016 and
forecast to rise a further 4.1per cent in 2017. Output growth is expected to slow
to a more moderate but still healthy pace next year, coming in at 2.7per cent.
This years fastest growth is expected from wholesale and retail trade, which
continues to benefit from decent employment and income gains. Consumer
spending activity is expected to receive an additional boost from Ontarios
Fair Hydro Plan, which lowered electricity bills by 25per cent on average for

all residential customers starting this past summer. Increases will be held to
the rate of inflation over the next four years. News from the wholesale and
retail sector includes the completion of a $550-million redevelopment and
expansion at Sherway Gardens. The malls new south wing opened this past
August and includes 250,000 square feet of additional retail space. Nordstrom
hired 400employees for the 140,000-square-foot store that opened at the
mall in midSeptember. Also, Cadillac Fairview has completed a $21-million
redevelopment of its CF Shops at Don Mills shopping centre. Meanwhile,
Nordstrom plans to open Nordstrom Rack stores in Vaughan Mills and at the
Heartland Town Centre in Mississauga next year. All in all, output growth in
thewholesale and retail trade sector is projected to come in at 7.2per cent
in2017, before slowing to a still solid 3.0per cent in 2018.
Activity will also be vibrant this year and next in the business services sector.
After expanding by a solid 3.2per cent last year, output in the sector will rise
a further 3.6per cent in 2017 and 2.9per cent in 2018. Amazon is finalizing
a deal to lease five floors at the Scotia Plaza. The company also announced
in June that it plans to hire an additional 200 workers at its headquarters in
Toronto. Meanwhile, Uber is launching a research group to study driverless
car technologiesthe first such group outside the United States. Moreover,
Sidewalk Labsa Google subsidiaryhas applied to develop a 12-acre strip
indowntown Toronto.
Elsewhere in the services sector, the finance, insurance, and real estate
sector will largely shrug off a slower housing market, posting output growth of
4.8per cent in 2017 and 3.1per cent in 2018. On a negative note, Royal Bank
announced earlier this year that it would cut 450 jobs, mostly at its Toronto
headoffice.
Finally, output growth in the personal services sector is anticipated to come in

at a healthy 2.6per cent in both 2017 and 2018. Support for the sector comes
from healthy tourism activity, thanks partly to a low Canadian dollar. Tourism
activity has also been bolstered this year by major sporting events in the region,
including the NHL Centennial Classic and the Invictus Games.
Construction Output Growth to Slow in 2018

The local construction sector has remained busy this year, with both residential
and non-residential investment driving growth. Overall construction output is

expected to rise by 3.9per cent in 2017. However, a near 5per cent decline
in housing starts next year will help cool overall construction output growth
After a blistering start to the year, housing market activity is moderating. In April,
the Ontario government introduced its 16-point Fair Housing Plan, with the aim
of cooling red-hot housing markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region.
Themeasures appeared to have had their desired effect. Sales of detached
homes, townhouses, and condos dropped nearly 39per cent in July 2017
compared with July 2016the third consecutive month that sales had dropped
on a year-over-year basis. The market has moved to a buyers stance, which
has put downward pressure on prices. According to the Toronto Real Estate
Board, the average price of a resale home in the Toronto area declined from
$919,449to $746,216 between April and July.
The new home market is following a similar pattern. Housing starts surged to
46,670 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter of 2017.
But starts moderated to 33,000 units in the second quarter and are expected
toaverage just under 37,000 units over the next six quarters as the government
housing measures and rising mortgage rates keep demand in check. As a result,
on an annual basis, housing starts are projected to decline by 1.7per cent to
38,366 units in 2017 and by a further 4.4per cent to 36,670 units in 2018.
In contrast, investment in the private non-residential and infrastructure markets

remains robust. Toronto is in the midst of a major upgrade to its public transit
system, which includes the $5.3-billion Eglinton Crosstown LRT line (completion
in 2021) and the $3.2-billion Toronto-York Spadina subway extension (scheduled
to open in December). Also, construction is expected to begin in the coming
months on the Finch West LRT line, with the provincial government contributing
$1.2billion and the federal government investing $333million. Meanwhile,
theprovince announced plans earlier this year to widen Highway401 from the
Credit River in Mississauga to Regional Road25 in Milton. Highway427 and
Highway400 are also getting expanded.
Investment activity is vibrant in health care and education. Several projects

are taking place at York University, including the $50-million expansion of the
Schulich School of Business and the construction of a new four-storey student
centre. The university also received a $127-million commitment from the
Ontario government to open a Markham Centre campus. Other investments

inthe educational sector include Ryerson Universitys Daphne Cockwell Health

Sciences Complex and a five-storey addition to the Robarts Library at the
University of Toronto. In the health care sector, the $288.5-million redevelopment
of Mount Sinai Hospital is expected to be done by fall 2022. Andthe
redevelopment of the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health broke ground
atthe beginning of October.
Torontos downtown office market shows no signs of slowing down. Construction

has begun on two major projects this year. Construction on the $2-billion
CIBCSquare (previously called Bay Park Centre) started in June, with the
first tower and bus terminal slated to be complete in 2020 and the second
tower scheduled for completion in 2023. Construction has also begun on the
$479-million, 32-storey 16York Street office tower, slated to open in June
2020. Meanwhile, work continues on the King Portland Centrea mixed-use
project that will be anchored by e-commerce company Shopify. Other projects
in the pipeline include the Bay Adelaide Centre North and the Waterfront
InnovationCentre.
Manufacturing Growing Slowly

Torontos manufacturing sector has partially reaped the benefits of a healthy
U.S.economy, a low Canadian dollar, and strong demand for new vehicles
south of the border. Over the last three years, manufacturing output has
increased by an annual average of 2.5per cent. Although the loonie remains
relatively low, U.S. vehicle sales appeared to have peaked. As a result, Torontos
manufacturing sector is set to expand by just 0.9per cent in 2017 and 1.4per
cent in 2018. News from the sector includes Bombardier Business Aircraft being
on track to deliver Global7000 aircraft in the second half of 2018. Four jets
are currently in the final assembly stage at the companys Downsview facility
inToronto.
Employment in the manufacturing sector has struggled over the last few years.
Decent output gains in 2014 and 2015 were accompanied by employment
declines averaging 2.2per cent per year, so the 3.6per cent hike in 2016 came
as a welcome respite. Unfortunately, employment is expected to trend downward
over the next two years as productivity gains outpace the growth in output.

TORONTO
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 1.4 1.7 Total 3.7 2.5
10 5 0 5 10 0 1 2 3 4 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
TORONTO
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
0.1 3.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.0 1.8 2.0
5211, 522123, Finance 213.1
Goods sector 537.6 554.4 570.6 554.4 554.6 565.6 571.2 579.9 523139
2.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 231129 Construction 207.8
Manufacturing 323.8 319.7 331.2 329.9 321.4 329.8 331.5 334.8 722124 Food and beverage services 176.7
3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 2.6 2.6 0.5 1.0
411191 Wholesale trade 149.4
Construction 185.8 201.9 208.2 197.4 201.6 205.2 208.9 213.8
48114922 Transportation 148.5
2.3 8.7 3.1 5.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4
6111 Primary and secondary schools 125.5
Primary and utilities 28.0 32.8 31.2 27.0 31.6 30.5 30.9 31.4
Services sector 2,548.8 2,623.4 2,645.5 2,707.5 2,741.8 2,795.5 2,851.1 2,911.9 5415 Computer systems design services 106.5
0.4 2.9 0.8 2.3 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.1
5511, 561112, Other management and 103.3
Transportation and warehousing 152.7 163.6 164.3 174.6 165.1 169.5 171.6 174.7 561517, 5619, administrative services
11.4 7.1 0.4 6.3 5.5 2.7 1.2 1.8 562129
1.3 4.3 0.1 3.6 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8
1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 3.9 2.3 2.8 2.3 Toronto 178
3.6 1.0 0.1 4.0 1.3 3.4 2.6 3.0
6.8 6.0 10.6 7.2 2.9 1.8 1.2 1.4
Link to Canada 82%

TORONTO
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Non-residential 5,121,605 3,796,272 5,298,518 5,755,679 5,701,725 6,071,776 5,648,191 6,557,391 6,088,003
Industrial 728,565 488,656 1,031,560 794,502 823,838 1,007,470 833,461 1,108,874 753,286
Commercial 3,214,770 2,442,735 2,888,839 2,563,910 3,324,397 3,963,433 3,687,511 3,631,337 3,949,352
Public admin. 1,178,270 864,881 1,378,119 2,397,267 1,553,490 1,100,873 1,127,219 1,817,180 1,385,365

Office sector*
No. of square feet 74,625 77,994 78,708 81,027 80,815 81,438 82,782 82,817 85,626
Percentage change 0.4 4.5 0.9 2.9 -0.3 0.8 1.6 0.0 3.4 Two-bedroom vacancy rate 1.3%
Employment (000s) 910 902 942 970 942 995 1,009 1,052 1,068 Sources: CBRE; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Percentage change 4.8 -0.8 4.4 2.9 -2.9 5.7 1.5 4.2 1.5
Bankruptcies
Consumer 12,208 15,423 10,996 8,050 7,203 6,714 6,032 5,532 5,072 Chart 5
Business 1,122 1,023 714 628 488 466 368 401 318 Economic Structure, 2016
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Toronto
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Ontario 46.2
Toronto 47.1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

TORONTO
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Toronto Ontario Canada
120,000
80,000
Office 0.33 0.28 0.25
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Toronto Canada Toronto Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.4 1.3
1.2 1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8 0.9
0.6 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Hamilton
Summary
Real GDP growth in Hamilton is forecast to slow from 2.9per cent in 2017
Employment growth will be very strong in 2017, reaching 4.9per cent, but
isprojected to decline by 2.1per cent next year.
Hamiltons population will increase by an annual average of 1.0per cent

between 2017 and 2021.

Hamilton | The Conference Board of Canada
HAMILTON

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Job growth is on pace to reach a 14-year high
in2017.
2.3 2.9 1.9 1.9
Out of 13 CMAs #5 #9 #10 #8
i
Housing starts will post a big decline this year.
Credit Quality AA

2016
i
Protectionist rhetoric from the U.S., including
Homeownership 1.06 the vow to renegotiate NAFTA, increases
theuncertainty around our outlook for
Rental 1.08
Hamiltons export-oriented industries,
particularlymanufacturing.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9
2.4 0.9 0.4 4.9 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.9
4.3 3.4 2.8 5.0 0.7 2.9 2.8 3.1
Population (000s) 765 770 778 787 794 802 809 816
0.9 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
7.5 4.8 6.7 6.4 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.4
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.259 1.274 1.297 1.318 1.342 1.371 1.400 1.429
2.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1


On a Decent Growth Path

Hamiltons economy is enjoying strong growth
this year, but slower growth looms. Real GDP
growth is projected to reach 2.9per cent in 2017
before easing to 2.0per cent in 2018.
This years strength is being driven by strong gains in several sectors, including
construction, wholesale and retail trade, personal services, and public
administration. Robust non-residential investment activity will more than offset
a sharp decline in residential investment, allowing the construction sector to
grow at a rapid pace. At the same time, growth is also on track to accelerate
inwholesale and retail trade and in personal services, as healthy employment
and income gains will boost consumer spending. Unfortunately, growth in all
these sectors will slow next year. On a positive note, manufacturing activity
isexpected to bounce back next year following a small dip in output in 2017.
The impressive GDP performance this year is being reflected in a hot labour
market. Employment is expected to climb at its fastest rate in 14years, leading
to the creation of over 19,000 net new jobs. But such growth is unsustainable.
As a result, we expect Hamiltons labour market to give back some of these
gains in 2018, with employment projected to dip 2.1per cent, equivalent to
the loss of 8,500 jobs. Overall, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from
6.1per cent in 2016 to 5.6per cent in 2018.
The economic growth will continue to attract newcomers. Hamiltons population

is anticipated to grow by 1.1per cent in 2017, matching last years growth rate.
Over the rest of the forecast, population growth will average 0.9per cent per
year. This should keep housing starts on an upward trend, following a double-
digit decline in 2017.
Services Sector to Decelerate in 2018

Output growth in Hamiltons services sector is expected to reach an estimated
3.3per cent in 2017, the fastest growth since 2000, before easing to 2.2per cent
next year, with advances moderating in five of the eight industries.

Headlining growth this year will be wholesale and retail trade. Rapid employment
growth and strong income gains will lift retail sales growth above 6per cent
for the second consecutive year in 2017, raising wholesale and retail trade
output by 4.6per cent this year. But next years expected drop in employment
and accompanying slowdown in income growth will slow retail sales advances
to 2.2per cent in 2018 and limit wholesale and retail trade output growth to
2.2percent.
At the same time, a hot resale housing market at the start of 2017 will help
propel full-year output growth of 3.1per cent in finance, insurance, and real
estate. But weakening resale housing market activity, sparked by Ontario
government cooling measures and rising interest rates, implies slower growth
going forward. Indeed, output growth in the finance, insurance, and real estate
industry is projected to moderate to 1.9per cent in 2018, its slowest pace
in sixyears. Among the provincial government housing market measures,
the 15per cent non-resident speculation tax applies to residential property
in Hamilton and Burlington, along with other cities in the Greater Golden
Horseshoe area.
Finally, output growth in the transportation and warehousing industry is

anticipated to reach 2.0per cent in both 2017 and 2018, following a 2.1per
cent advance last year. Canada Jetlinesa low-cost carrierannounced in
September that it would begin offering air service from JohnC.Munro Hamilton
International Airport in summer 2018. Also, Hamiltons airport is now connected
to Torontos Pearson airport and to Union Station in downtown Toronto through
adaily shuttle service.
Construction Output Growth Also Set to Moderate

in2018
The construction sector is on track to have an impressive year in 2017, as output
is expected to expand by 4.8per cent. This years surge will solely be fuelled
by strong non-residential investment activity, as housing starts are projected to
tumble by 23.0 per cent. Output growth is expected to slow to 1.5per cent next
year, even though housing starts are set to bounce back.
Housing starts hit a six-year-high of 3,270 units last year, thanks to a surge in
multi-family units. But this caused inventories to swell, leading to a pullback in
housing starts this year. In fact, about 2,500 new units are anticipated in 2017.

This decline is expected to be solely fuelled by a 31.2 per cent reduction in

multi-family starts, as single-detached construction is anticipated to edge up
1.1per cent. Fortunately, starts are expected to gradually increase over the
restof the forecast period, beginning with a rise to 2,670 units in 2018.
Fortunately, this years residential investment downturn has been more than
offset by vigorous activity on the non-residential front, although things should
cool next year. Construction is ongoing on the $25-million Bernie Morelli
Recreation Centre, which will feature a gymnasium, fitness rooms, a leisure
pool, and an indoor walking track. Work also continues on the $138.9-million
Randle Reef contaminated sediment remediation project. The first phase
ofthe project involves the construction of an engineered containment facility
that will house contaminated sediment. In addition, over the next five years,
the Woodward wastewater treatment plant will get $340million in upgrades,
including a new chlorine contact tank, a new energy centre, and a new raw
sewage pumping station. Other projects in the pipeline include the construction
of a $20-million, 134-unit Hyatt hotel at McMaster Universitys innovation hub
and a $106-million biosolids facility.
Investment activity is especially vibrant in the education sector. Construction

isprogressing on McMaster Universitys $118-million, 12-storey Living Learning
Centre, with completion slated for September 2019. Meanwhile, as part of a
$54.25-million renewal of technology labs and classrooms, Mohawk College
isbuilding a new 90,000-square-foot Joyce Centre for Partnership and
Innovation at its Fennell campus, with work expected to wrap up next spring.
Manufacturing to Return to Positive Territory

NextYear
Hamiltons manufacturing sector has largely failed to take advantage of a
lower loonie and healthy U.S. economy. Output rose only 1.1per cent last
year, following annual gains averaging 1.3 per cent in the five years prior.
Unfortunately, this year has been even more disappointing, as manufacturing
output is poised to contract by 0.4per cent. Although we expect the sector
to return to growth next year, the pace of expansion will remain humdrum
at1.4percent.

Some good news is starting to emerge for Stelco, formerly known as U.S.
Steel Canada. The steelmaker, under creditor protection since the fall of 2014,
was officially purchased by Bedrock Industriesa U.S. investment firmin
June, keeping plants in Hamilton and Nanticoke, Ont., operating. Still, lots of
uncertainty remains. Protectionist policies by the new U.S. administration aimed
at increasing the purchase and use of American products, including steel, could
hurt the Canadian steelmaker. Stelco workers also worry about their pensions,
as the province will not force Bedrock Industries to make up the approximately
$1-billion pension shortfall.
With slow output growth, manufacturing employment has struggled over the past
few years, declining by an annual average of 2.5per cent between 2011 and
2016. Last years 11.1per cent decline was the largest since 2006. Fortunately,
job growth is expected to return this year, with the creation of 3,560 net new
jobsan 8.0per cent increase. However, another pullback is expected in 2018.
Even with modest gains over the rest of the forecast, manufacturing employment
will remain about 40per cent below its 2004 level in 2021.

HAMILTON
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 4.9 0.6 Total 2.9 1.9
60 40 20 0 20 40 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3
HAMILTON
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
2.4 0.9 0.4 4.9 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.9
Goods sector 79.4 83.4 79.9 84.8 81.3 81.6 81.9 82.9
1.6 5.0 4.2 6.1 4.1 0.4 0.5 1.1
Manufacturing 46.6 50.1 44.5 48.1 46.5 46.8 46.8 47.2
Construction 27.7 27.2 29.4 31.3 29.3 29.4 29.8 30.3 6220 Hospitals 18.1
5.0 1.6 7.8 6.6 6.2 0.3 1.3 1.8 411191 Wholesale trade 17.6
562129
Services sector 302.9 302.3 307.2 321.5 316.6 321.6 326.8 333.4
Transportation and warehousing 19.0 14.1 16.5 17.6 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.6 5211, 522123, Finance 12.9
15.6 25.5 16.6 7.0 7.7 0.6 0.5 1.1 523139
7.4 3.6 2.2 0.9 2.7 1.2 0.4 1.0
3.1 15.3 15.0 5.0 2.8 1.0 2.0 2.4 Hamilton 297
1.0 13.2 0.2 4.7 1.9 4.7 2.6 3.1
14.4 20.7 10.9 26.0 13.1 1.5 1.4 1.7
Link to Canada 61%

HAMILTON
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1,324,645 985,978 1,480,892 1,224,185 1,977,851 1,431,044 1,421,578 1,657,274 1,566,787 New housing market (2016)
Residential 700,970 456,282 848,496 755,014 850,047 750,442 851,073 1,006,733 1,086,146 Single-detached absorptions 846
Growth 25.9%
Non-residential 623,675 529,696 632,396 469,171 1,127,804 680,602 570,505 650,541 480,641
Industrial 92,146 47,268 129,226 49,592 234,665 145,906 67,524 87,095 37,097
Growth 3.0%
Commercial 317,710 269,888 301,053 224,907 394,008 345,617 318,342 204,498 289,731
Public admin. 213,819 212,540 202,117 194,672 499,131 189,079 184,639 358,948 153,813
Growth 5.2%
Office sector*
(000s)
Average two-bedroom rent $1,040
Employment (000s) 85 82 82 87 89 92 95 99 94
Percentage change 0.7 3.8 0.8 5.6 2.5 3.6 3.1 4.1 5.2 Sources: CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 2,093 2,737 1,973 1,519 1,283 1,136 956 847 841
Business 150 126 91 60 45 43 37 44 37
Chart 5

($ 000s) Hamilton
0.94
Canada 46.2
Ontario 46.2
Hamilton 46.3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

HAMILTON
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Hamilton Ontario Canada
8,000
6,000
Office 0.24 0.28 0.25
4,000
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Hamilton Canada Hamilton Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.4 1.2
1.2 1.1
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.9
0.6 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Manitoba
Summary
Real GDP growth in Manitoba is forecast to come in at a healthy 2.9per cent

in2017, before slowing to a meagre 0.3per cent next yearplacing at the
bottom of all provinces.
Employment growth will cool and is set to average 0.5per cent growth per year
from 2017 to 2021.
Business investment will decline annually from 2018 to 2021.

Manitoba | The Conference Board of Canada
MANITOBA

(per cent)
i
2016 2017 201821 201221 Upcoming mine closures will reduce the mining
sector in Manitoba to a fraction of its current size
2.4 2.9 1.0 1.8
by 2021.
h
The residential sector will benefit from strong
Credit Quality
housing demand and investment.
AA
Forecast Risk
i
The costs of Manitoba Hydros multi-billion-dollar
projects have ballooned and will likely be paid
for by rate hikes for households in Manitoba,
dampening their purchasing power.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.9 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.3
0.1 1.5 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6
Population (000s) 1,279 1,295 1,315 1,335 1,355 1,374 1,394 1,414
1.2 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
4.4 1.6 4.2 5.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.253 1.268 1.284 1.306 1.335 1.365 1.393 1.422
1.8 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1


Diverse Economy Will Pull Province

Through Rough Weather
Manitoba will experience highs and lows
this year and next as it moves from being
one of the economic growth leaders among
provinces in 2017 toplacing at the bottom in
2018. The success of this year is the result
ofhuge investments inthe residential sector,
inconstruction activity, and in the industries
thatsupport a great deal of activity in the
goodsproducing sector, such as wholesale
trade and transportation andwarehousing.
Looking toward 2018, several factors will restrain Manitobas economic growth,
lowering the provinces growth path from 2.9per cent in 2017 to a meagre
0.3per cent in 2018. The mining industry will embark on a painful road of
declines as several mines reach the end of their lives. Construction will also
takea hit in 2018 after construction activity at the Keeyask hydroelectric
generating station peaks in 2017 and the project begins to wind down. Losses
will be partly mitigated by construction activity that Bell will embark on as part
ofits takeover of Manitoba Telecom Services but, by and large, the sector will
still fall deep into negative territory.
Household Consumption to Slow

Times are changing in the province of Manitoba. As the economy braces
for setbacks in select industries, households are set to become more frugal.
Household consumption posted average annual compound growth of 2.4per
cent from 2007 to 2016. But employment growth will cool and is set to average
0.5per cent growth per year from 2017 to 2021, reducing average annual
compound growth in household consumption to just 1.3per cent from 2017
to2021.

Manitoba | The Conference Board of Canada
Chart 1
(2011 = 1.0)
Manitoba Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Government Sector to Disappoint

Standard & Poors recently downgraded the Government of Manitobas credit
rating for the second time in the last 13months; growing indebtedness and
anticipated consecutive deficits were cited as the main reason for the cause.
Tomake matters worse, the fiscal situation in Manitoba will be hurt by the
subdued outlook for its economy, as overall economic output and employment
struggle to grow over the medium term. These factors add appreciable downside
risk to revenues, clouding predictions of the exact date when the province can
return to a balanced budget.
Business Investment to Decline

Business investment will drop 0.1per cent in 2018, as several of the key drivers
of investment growth in recent years begin to taper off. Manitoba Hydros
BipoleIII transmission line project is winding down as it approaches its slated
completion date of 2018. In addition, construction activity at the Keeyask
hydroelectric generating station peaked this year and will slowly decline
beginning in 2018 until it enters its operational phase. Residential investment
will also cool in 2018 after a red-hot year in 2017 (23.9per cent growth,

yearover-year), which was fuelled by growing demand for condominium-style

accommodations. As these projects come to a close, output in the construction
sector will fall over the medium term, from $5billion in 2017 to $4.5billion
in2021.
Decent Activity in Agriculture

Farmers in Manitoba will fare relatively well this year, even though growth will
be flat in 2017 before picking up again next year. The weather was reasonable
after the delayed seeding in the spring and was expected to produce normal
yields, albeit lower than the exceptional harvest of 2016. Livestock producers will
encounter a mixed bag of results this year. Manitobas hog producers will see an
uptick in volume in 2017 thanks to increased global demand. On the other hand,
cattle producers will face noticeable declines this year, as the volume of demand
for exports is nearly half that in 2016. After a flat year, growth in Manitobas
agriculture sector will regain strength in 2018 and increase by 2.2per cent
eachyear through 2021.
Chart 2

Office 2.8
Industrial 0.3
Total 1.4
0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Winnipeg
Summary
After rising by 3.2per cent last year, real GDP growth in Winnipeg is expected
to reach a solid 3.6per cent this year, before slowing sharply to 1.4per cent
in2018.
Despite the looming slowdown, average annual employment growth will remain
steady at 1.4per cent over the next two years, cutting the unemployment rate
from 6.5per cent in 2016 to 5.7per cent in 2018.
Population growth came in at 2.2per cent in 2016, the fastest rate of growth
since data began to be collected in 1988, and is anticipated to average
1.7percent per year between 2017 and 2021.

WINNIPEG

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Winnipegs real GDP growth is expected to hit
a19-year high in 2017.
3.2 3.6 1.4 2.2
Out of 13 CMAs #3 #4 #13 #7
i
Housing starts will decline sharply next year.
Credit Quality AA

2016
i
Winnipegs export-oriented manufacturing sector
Homeownership 0.58 could be hurt by U.S. protectionist measures.
Rental 1.11
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4
0.2 3.3 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.7
0.8 3.9 0.8 1.3 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.7
Population (000s) 783 795 812 829 843 857 871 885
1.6 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
4.1 2.3 4.2 4.9 2.7 1.9 1.3 1.4
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.249 1.266 1.281 1.304 1.334 1.363 1.391 1.420
1.9 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1


Winnipeg | The Conference Board of Canada
Winnipegs Economy Flying High in 2017,

but 2018 Will Be a Different Story
Winnipegs economy will see robust growth
thisyear, but a slowdown looms. Real GDP
is ontrack to increase by 3.6per cent
the strongest growth in almost 20 years.
Unfortunately, Winnipegs economy is expected
to lose steam next year, in line with much slower
activity province-wide. In fact, the local economy
is expected to post only a 1.4per cent gain
in 2018, the slowest rate of growth since the
2009recession.
This years expansion is broad-based. In particular, the manufacturing sector
continues to be buoyed by a low Canadian dollar and solid U.S. demand.
Theconstruction sector is receiving a lift from robust residential demand and
several major ongoing non-residential projects. Meanwhile, strong output growth
on the services side is being led by wholesale and retail trade and by finance,
insurance, and real estate.
However, most industries are expected to post slower growth next year. A large
decline in housing starts will take a bite out of activity both in the construction
sector and in finance, insurance, and real estate. The slowdown in construction,
along with a tepid provincial economy, will more than offset healthy local
manufacturing activity, leading to a dip in transportation and warehousing
outputthe first decline since the 2009 recession. At the same time, activity
will moderate sharply in the wholesale and retail trade sector, in line with slower
consumer spending.
Despite the much slower economic growth, Winnipegs labour market will hold
steady in the near term. The economy is expected to generate a total of some
12,170 net new jobs over 201718, following the creation of 13,750 new jobs
in the two years prior. Job creation will continue but at a slower pace over the
rest of the forecast period, as employment growth is anticipated to average
0.8per cent per year between 2019 and 2021. Slower labour force growth will
push the unemployment rate down from 6.5 per cent in 2016 to 5.5per cent

in 2021. Still,not all news is positive, as several major firms have announced
layoffs over the last few months. Great-West Lifeco is cutting 1,500 positions
in Canada over the next two years, including 450 in Winnipeg, while Investors
Group is eliminating 30jobs. At the same time, the Manitoba government has
asked health authorities and agencies to cut 15per cent of their management
positions. Also, hundreds of support staff at Winnipeg hospitals were told in
September that their jobs will be cut as part of a major restructuring.
Winnipegs demographic outlook remains solid. Net international migration

to Winnipeg came in at close to 18,000 last year, the highest level since data
began being collected in 1987. While net international migration is expected
to moderate over the next five years, it is still anticipated to average a healthy
12,400 individualsslightly above the 11,800 average of the past 10 years.
Asaresult, population growth is expected to average 1.7per cent per year
between 2017 and 2021.
Manufacturing Activity to Remain Healthy

Winnipegs well-diversified manufacturing sector has had a healthy run over the
last few years, with output increasing in five of the six years from 2011 to2016.
Growth drivers included solid demand for transportation equipment, a low
Canadian dollar, a healthy U.S. consumer, and low interest rates. These positive
factors will continue to drive activity in the manufacturing sector over the next
two years, with output expanding by 2.0per cent in 2017 and a further 2.1per
cent in 2018.
Activity remains vibrant for local bus manufacturers and aerospace firms.
NewFlyer Industries posted strong financial results in the first half of the year,
with net earnings of US$80.7milliona 40.6per cent increase from the same
period last year. The bus manufacturer now expects to deliver 3,800 new transit
buses and motor coaches in fiscal year 2017an increase of 8.2 per cent over
fiscal 2016as orders continue to pour in. The City of Winnipeg has extended
its contract with New Flyer and is purchasing 70Xcelsior clean diesel buses
for Winnipeg transit. Also, New Flyer won a contract to provide the Edmonton
Transit Service with 110 diesel buses, with options to purchase an additional
120buses.

On the aerospace side, the federal government is investing $10 million

over fiveyears in Red River College to expand the Centre for Aerospace
Technology and Training and to create a smart factoryan applied research
and experiential learning facility at the new Skilled Trades Technology
Centre scheduled to open next year. Also, the federal government has
awarded Standard Aero a $45-million contract for engine maintenance for
theCP-140Aurora and the CC-130H Hercules aircraft for the Canadian armed
forces fleet. The contract is for over four years, with possibility of extension to
2030. As well, Airbus has selected Magellan Aerospace to manufacture exhaust
systems for A320neo PW aircraft. The exhaust systems will be manufactured
inWinnipeg and Middletown, Ohio.
The healthy manufacturing output gains have been mirrored in the labour
market, with manufacturing employment increasing at an annual average rate
of 1.2per cent between 2011 and 2016. This trend is expected to continue in
the near term, as manufacturing employment is projected to increase by 3.1per
cent this year, translating into about 1,300 net new jobs. But this rate of growth
is unsustainable, and the sector is expected to give back some of these gains
in2018, shedding close to 500 jobs.
Constructions Impressive Four-Year Run Will End

in2018
Manufacturings steady outlook is a bit of an outlier. Most other industries will
post more moderate growth next year, including Winnipegs construction sector.
This sector has been firing on all cylinders since 2014, as output increased by
an average of 8.6per cent per year from 2014 to 2016, with a further 7.1 per cent
gain in the cards this year. This strong performance will not be repeated next
year, as a big drop in housing starts will more than offset decent gains in non-
residential construction activity, limiting output growth to a meagre 0.6per cent.
Winnipegs new home market had an impressive start to the year. An outburst
in multiple-unit construction propelled housing starts to over 6,000 units at
seasonally adjusted annual rates in the first half of 2017. Even though we expect
multiple-unit construction activity to fall to more sustainable levels over the rest
of the year, total housing starts are still poised to come in at 5,341 unitstheir
highest level in almost 40years. However, rising inventories will cause builders

to lower both single-detached and multiple-unit starts next year. As a result,

housing starts are forecast to decline by 20.1per cent, coming in at 4,270 units,
a level more in line with demographic requirements. Steady population increases
should encourage builders to slightly increase housing starts over the rest of the
forecast, ending up at 4,610 units by 2021.
Fortunately, activity will remain healthy in the non-residential construction

sector over the next two years. Major projects under way include the
$155-million Waverley underpass, the $400-million mixed-use True North
Square development, and the $467.3-million extension of the southwest
transitway. Meanwhile, construction is expected to start this year on a five-
storey commercial and retail complex at the St.Regis hotel site and on the
$200-million, 45-storey SkyCity Centre mixed-use development on Graham
Avenue. Once complete, SkyCity Centre will be the tallest structure between
Toronto and Calgary, and will include 380 residential units, 30,000 square feet
ofamenities, and 80,000 square feet of office and retail space.
Investment activity remains particularly vibrant in the education sector.

RedRiver College recently started building its $95-million Innovation Centre,
with $40.6 million coming from the federal government. At the same time, the
University of Manitoba will receive $36million from the federal and provincial
governments for two new developmentsthe 46,000-square-foot Stanley
Pauley Engineering Building and the 75,000-square-foot, four-storey Smartpark
Innovation Hub.
Finally, hotel construction activity in Winnipeg is booming. According to

Stevenson Advisors, work is expected to start in 2018 on the 27-storey,
275room Sutton Place Hotel (part of the True North Square development)
andon CanadInns $45-million hotel at McPhillips Station Casino. Moreover,
work is already under way on the Fairfield Inn & Suites by Marriott on Ellice
Avenue, while construction of a new Best Western hotel is expected to start
thisyear.
Services Sector Activity to Slow in 2018

Like construction, Winnipegs aggregate services sector is poised for a
slowdown. This sector has also had an impressive string of growth as of
late, as output expanded by an average of 2.6per cent per year from 2014 to
2016. Services are having an even better year this year, with overall output

on track torise 3.7per centthe strongest gain in 18 years. But weaker local
construction activity and economic weakness in the rest of Manitoba will push
aggregate services output growth down to 1.6per cent next year.
This years vigorous growth has been driven by key sectors such as wholesale
and retail trade and finance, insurance, and real estate. Decent employment and
income growth will lift retail sales by 4.9per cent, boosting wholesale and retail
trade output by a whopping 7.9per cent. The retail sector remains in expansion
mode. The 400,000-square-foot Winnipeg Outlet Collection mall opened its
doors earlier this year. Next year, Lowes plans to open a 95,000-square-foot
store at the Linden Ridge shopping centre. Meanwhile, a balanced resale market
and rising housing starts will drive output growth of 4.4per cent in finance,
insurance, and real estate.
The personal services industry has been another solid contributor, as the low
Canadian dollar and healthy U.S. economy continue to attract tourists to the
region. This has been reflected in strong passenger numbers at Winnipeg
Richardson International Airport, which moved over onemillion passengers
through the airport in the second quarter of 2017an 8.8per cent increase over
the second quarter of 2016. In more positive news for the industry, the federal
and provincial governments are investing $50million to build Canadas Diversity
Gardens at Assiniboine Park.
But growth is expected to decelerate in five of eight services industries next

year. Winnipeg is a regional services centre for the rest of the province,
particularly for publicly funded services (health care, education, and public
administration) but for private services too. With Manitoba expected to eke out
real GDP growth of just 0.3per cent next year, Winnipegs services sector will
feel the pinch. The local drop in housing starts and the accompanying slowdown
in construction will also hurt. Slowdowns are anticipated in wholesale and retail
trade, in finance, insurance, and real estate, in transportation and warehousing,
in information and culture, and in public administration. Conditions will be
particularly weak in transportation and warehousing, where output is forecast
tofall for the first time in nine years.

WINNIPEG
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 1.3 1.0 Total 3.6 1.4
10 5 0 5 10 15 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 1 2 3
WINNIPEG
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
0.2 3.3 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.7
Goods sector 77.6 78.2 81.3 82.0 82.8 83.1 82.9 82.9
6220 Hospitals 24.6
0.5 0.8 3.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0
Manufacturing 42.8 41.7 41.6 42.9 42.4 42.6 42.6 42.5
Construction 25.4 28.0 29.5 30.1 30.9 30.6 30.5 30.5 6241 - 6244 Social assistance 15.4
Primary and utilities 9.4 8.5 10.3 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.9 411191 Wholesale trade 14.8
0.2 9.3 20.5 11.9 5.2 3.4 0.4 0.5
611217 Post-secondary education 13.8
Services sector 333.5 346.4 343.6 348.3 354.3 357.9 361.0 364.2
6230 Nursing and res. care facilities 13.3
0.2 3.8 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.9
4.1 4.7 10.0 1.0 6.1 2.9 1.1 0.9
19.7 5.4 9.8 6.5 5.7 3.2 1.0 0.9
12.2 10.1 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.1 Winnipeg 141
3.9 5.3 0.8 1.3 4.7 1.3 1.5 1.3
0 50 100 150 200
7.3 4.3 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.7
1.3 3.6 4.4 11.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 Canada 39%
WINNIPEG
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1,034,593 929,569 1,096,643 1,138,492 1,654,602 1,810,772 1,958,112 1,595,990 2,001,393 Downtown office market (2016Q4)
Residential 663,785 539,078 733,800 730,946 929,824 951,925 1,102,800 973,980 997,359 Class A vacancy rate 8.9%
Non-residential 370,808 390,491 362,843 407,546 724,778 858,847 855,312 622,010 1,004,034
Industrial 37,844 41,212 42,749 30,739 172,501 81,731 63,231 51,145 191,741
Commercial 267,967 247,522 214,087 253,744 411,496 452,974 589,116 390,092 588,128
Average Class A net rent ($/sq. ft.) n.a.
Public admin. 64,997 101,757 106,007 123,063 140,781 324,142 202,965 180,773 224,165

Office sector*
No. of square feet 7,159 7,159 7,159 8,248 8,495 8,527 8,551 8,632 9,440
Bankruptcies
Consumer 1,317 1,614 1,301 981 836 776 747 774 913 Chart 5
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Winnipeg
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Manitoba 41.4
Winnipeg 44.3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

WINNIPEG
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Winnipeg Manitoba Canada
20,000
15,000
10,000 Office 0.22 0.19 0.25
0
5,000 Wholesale and retail trade 0.15 0.14 0.15
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Winnipeg Canada Winnipeg Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.8 1.2
1.6 1.1
1.4
1.0
1.2
1.0 0.9
0.8 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Saskatchewan
Summary
Real GDP growth is set to reach 2.7per cent this year but decelerate to
1.7percent in 2018.
Work to replace the Enbridge Line3 crude oil pipeline has commenced.
Investment in thermal heavy oil plants and a new power station will
boostconstruction.
The potash industry is looking up as improved world demand stabilizes prices.

Saskatchewan | The Conference Board of Canada
SASKATCHEWAN

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Saskatchewans economy climbed outof two
years of recession in 2017.
1.0 2.7 1.7 1.8
h
Saskatchewan will add an average of 4,360 jobs
Credit Quality
per year between 2017 and 2021.
AA+
Forecast Risk
i
Dry weather across areas in Saskatchewan hurt
crop yields this year.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 2.3 1.3 1.0 2.7 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.7
1.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.6
Population (000s) 1,119 1,132 1,148 1,163 1,177 1,193 1,210 1,226
1.5 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4
5.0 2.9 2.2 4.3 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.7
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.287 1.308 1.322 1.344 1.375 1.404 1.433 1.463
2.4 1.6 1.1 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1


Saskatchewans Economy Improving

Recovery in Saskatchewans economy is
well under way after a two-year recession,
with overall economic growth of 2.7per cent
expected in 2017 and 1.7per cent next year.
This years advance is fuelled by the mining sector, where both the potash and
oil industries are enjoying rekindled market optimism. Resulting demand for
machinery and equipment from primary industries has spurred improved growth
in the wholesale trade sector, while shipping and storage requirements for
primary goods have boosted transportation and warehousing activity. Despite
an appreciation of the Canadian dollar and the possibility for more interest rate
hikes, export businesses will benefit from recovering markets, particularly among
the potash, uranium, oil, and agriculture industries.
Employment is expected to rise by a tiny 0.2per cent this year, then aslightly
stronger 0.7per cent in 2018. Job growth in 2018 will be led by the construction,
health care, and primary (excluding agriculture) industries. Thiswill return
employment to 2015 levels, fully erasing the 2016 dip. This years tiny
employment increase will trim the unemployment rate to 6.2per cent in 2017
Chart 1
(2011 = 1.0)
Saskatchewan Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast

Saskatchewan | The Conference Board of Canada
from 6.4per cent in 2016. A further drop to 5.9per cent is on tap for 2018.
Population gains will remain solid at 1.3per cent this year and1.2 per cent
in2018, although this pace lags boom-era growth.
The medium term also looks decent. Employment growth will average just under
1 per cent in 201921, keeping the unemployment rate below 6 per cent, and we
expect the current rate of population growth to continue. As a result, disposable
income is set to make solid gains over the next five years, rising by an average
annual compound rate of 3.3per cent from 2017 to 2021. Rising population,
employment, and incomes will be key underpinnings of steady housing demand.
Saskatchewan housing starts will climb from 4,650 in 2017 to 5,740 in 2021, with
construction of multi-family units driving the increase.
Poor weather will prompt a marginal contraction in Saskatchewans agriculture

sector this year. Heavy spring rain delayed seeding, then a dry summer
hampered crop development, reducing harvest yields. The sector should resume
its long-term trend of robust growth in 2018 and thereafter as world demand
grows and Saskatchewan focuses on its high-value cropscanola, lentils,
andsoybeans. Indeed, increasing world demand for biofuels and canola oil
ledto a record year of canola seeding across Canada.
Producers in the oil industry have found more solid footing in 2017 but still face
tepid oil prices. Growth is expected to flatten in 2018, but the industry remains
much healthier than it was two years ago. So far in 2017, strong drilling statistics
already show boosted production. Moreover, energy-related investment is
expected to rise by 67.7per cent in 2017and 19.9per cent in 2018. Key projects
include the Enbridge Line3 crude oil pipeline replacement, construction of the
Chinook power station, and work on new thermal oil projects.
Saskatchewans non-oil mining sector will gather strength in 2018. The metal
mining industry will grow by 7.7per cent and the non-metal mining industry by
6.4per cent as improving market conditions and enhanced potash production
capacity bolster producer opportunities. Should this momentum continue,
Saskatchewans potash industry will regain prosperity. While the uranium
market remains depressed, its potential usefulness in producing clean power
is keeping it relevant. Although it may take some time, it is still hoped that the
industry will recover from the Fukushima nuclear power plant catastrophe.

Chart 2

Office 2.1
Industrial 1.7
Total 1.9
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Renewed employment gains will help lift retail sales 4.3per cent this year and
afurther 1.1per cent in 2018. Sales will grow an average of 2.1 per cent annually
in 201921. These sales will cost consumers a little more this year; the spring
provincial budget hiked Saskatchewans sale tax from 5per cent to 6per cent.
This increase will, however, be mitigated by a provincial income tax cut.

Regina
Summary
The worst appears over. Following two soft years, real GDP growth will hit
2.9per cent in Regina in 2017 and remain above 2per cent in 2018.
Employment is forecast to rise 1.0per cent in 2017 and a further 0.8per cent
in2017; the unemployment rate will fall to 5.2per cent in 2017, but rise to
5.3percent in 2018.
Net migration will fall in 2017 but remain historically decent.

REGINA

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 The return to GDP growth is good news for
thiscity.
0.0 2.9 2.2 2.6
Out of 13 CMAs #10 #8 #6 #4
h
Inventories of unsold new homes are falling,
helping to stabilize the housing market.
Credit Quality AA+


2016
i
An unexpected lurch downward in commodity
Homeownership 0.63 prices would be hard on Reginas economy.
Rental 1.15
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 4.0 0.7 0.0 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2
0.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4
1.0 3.7 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9
Population (000s) 237 241 247 253 257 262 267 272
2.5 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9
5.3 1.9 2.2 4.9 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.2
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.297 1.315 1.329 1.351 1.382 1.411 1.441 1.470
2.3 1.4 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1


Regina | The Conference Board of Canada
Modest Rebound in Store

Saskatchewan and its capital have suffered
mightily from the end of the commodities boom,
but modest improvement is already under way.
Areturn to the glory years is not in prospect, but
real GDP is poised to expand 2.9per cent this
year, following a 0.6per cent contraction in 2015
and no change last year. Moderate growth will
persist in 2018, with real GDP growth clocking
inat 2.1per cent.
Our outlook over the next few years features growth in the low 2per cent range.
This is modest by boom-era standardsreal GDP increases averaged 5.5per
cent between 2010 and 2014but only slightly below Reginas average growth
of 2.6per cent over the past 25years. Still, this expansion hinges on sustained
recovery in oil, potash, and crop pricesnone of which is guaranteed.
Fortunately, jobs continued to be created in 2015 and 2016, even as output

growth faltered. Employment rose by about 1per cent in both 2015 and 2016.
Our call is for more of the same this year and next, with employment rising
about 1per cent each year. A relatively tight labour market will thus persist; we
expect a fall in the unemployment rate to 5.2per cent in this year, then a modest
increase to 5.3per cent in 2018, as aspiring job seekers boost the labour force
faster than employment grows. Our medium-term call for 201921 is for annual
job growth to average about 1.4per cent and the unemployment rate to hover
inthe low 5 per cent range.
Perhaps Reginas most optimistic sign is its continued ability to attract migrants.
We expect annual net inflows to average just above 3,100 people in 201721,
starting with this years expected 2,800 newcomers. The days of Regina losing
people to other cities, as it did in 17 of 19 years through 2006, are long over.
Accordingly, Reginas population will rise 2.3per cent this year, a further 1.7per
cent in 2018, and just under 2per cent annually between 2019 and 2021.

Healthy Manufacturing Outlook Continues

Reginas manufacturing sector is poised for 4.9per cent output growth in 2017
following a robust 5.4per cent expansion in 2016. A significant portion of the
local industry provides equipment for Saskatchewans resource sector, so
stabilizing potash, oil, and crop prices have been a spur. Last years strong
local performance was miles ahead of the national average, since Canadas
manufacturing output rose only 0.7per cent. This means that growth in Reginas
manufacturing sector outpaced its national counterpart in seven of the 10 years
to 2016. Another strong year is forecast for Reginas manufacturing industry in
2017, with output slated to expand 4.9 per cent. Cooler 1.4per cent growth is
ontap for 2018.
Even with an expanding industry, local manufacturing employment has been

weak; it fell nearly 9per cent in 2016, the third decline during the past four
years. Still, last years annual decline masked job growth at year-end. And 2017
started strongly. Although employment is pulling back in the years second half,
we still expect it to rise by nearly 1,500 people this year. In 2018, Reginas total
manufacturing employment will remain elevated by recent standards, despite
a500-job dip.
The future appears set for steel-pipe-maker Evraz after mediated contract
negotiations between the firm and the United Steelworkers achieved an
agreement. A strike had loomed over the firms request for rollbacks in worker
benefits and conditions. The steelworkers had been without a contract since
July2016.
Construction Growth Resumes

Despite completion of work on Reginas new Mosaic football stadium, Reginas
construction output is forecast to rise 0.9per cent in 2017, following two straight
annual contractions, including 14per cent shrinkage in 2016. This years
expansion is largely fuelled by ongoing work on a $1.9-billion bypass for the
Trans-Canada Highway, said to be Saskatchewans largest-ever transportation
project and scheduled to be completed by year-end 2019.
The Railyard Renewal Project, a plan to link Reginas warehouse district to its
downtown core, received a boost in June when the Federation of Canadian
Municipalities awarded the City of Regina $175,000 from its Green Municipal

Fund. This project is the second stage in the Regina Revitalization Initiative,
which was kicked off by the Mosaic stadium construction. A third stage in this
initiative will feature development of the adjacent neighbourhood into a new
mixed-use residential and commercial district.
In May, Brightenview Development International broke ground on its $45-million

Global Trade Exhibition Centre at Reginas Global Transportation Hub. This tax-
free foreign trade zone will facilitate trade between Asia and Saskatchewan and
ultimately create up to 200 jobs.
Reginas slowing economy trimmed residential demand starting in 2015, leaving

builders with large stocks of completed and unsold new homes, particularly
multi-family units. Housing starts unsurprisingly collapsed, sagging to a post-
recession low near 1,560 units last year. Weakness has hit both single-detached
and multi-family homes. This has trimmed unsold backlogs; those for singles are
approaching their 20-year average, while those among multiples are also falling,
although they remain more than three times this historical average. Although
gradual economic improvement will allow a modest starts recovery this year
to1,860 units, with small hikes among both singles and multiples, the recovery
will stall next year, the result of the inventory overhang and rising interest rates,
with starts falling back to about 1,760 units.
Services Growth Improves

Aggregate output growth among Reginas services sector fell to a 21-year low
of 1.6per cent in 2016, as several key industries have also been hurt directly
and indirectly by the end of the commodities boom. For 2017, we expect
improved services output growth of 3.2per cent, with only public administration
contracting. This would represent the third straight year in which services have
outperformed their goods sector counterpart. We expect decent 2.1per cent
services growth in 2018, with all industries expanding. This will roughly match
output growth in the goods sector.
Sagging housing starts and a resale market facing buyers conditions trimmed
output growth in finance, insurance, and real estate, Reginas largest industry,
from 4.7per cent in 2015 to 3.6per cent last year. A further deceleration in
output growth to 2.8per cent is on tap for 2017, followed by another dip to
2.7per cent in 2018 as conditions remain uninspiring in both the new and
existing housing markets.

Output of the wholesale and retail trade industry sagged 0.6per cent last year,
the second straight annual decline. The drop came against a backdrop of soft
employment, falling per capita personal income, weak consumer confidence,
and retail sales growth less than half its 20-year average. A slight employment
acceleration underpins our call for a resumption of per capita income growth
and faster retail sales expansion. That, along with the bounce-back in goods
sector activity, has allowed wholesale and retail trade growth to rebound smartly,
hitting 11per cent in 2017. This pace is unsustainable, however, so the industrys
growth will decelerate to 2.0per cent in 2018. News from the sector includes
approval by Reginas city council of a new and larger Costco warehouse to
replace one built in 1993.
Although the share of GDP produced by Reginas public administration sector

has eroded, it remains high by national standardsunsurprising in a provincial
capital. Accordingly, this years tough provincial budget, which featured
widespread spending cuts, is bad news for this city. Public administration output
will fall 0.5per cent this year, just the second annual contraction in the past
20years. This will be followed by only slight 0.8per cent expansion in 2018.

REGINA
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 1.0 1.3 Total 2.9 2.2
10 5 0 5 10 4 2 0 2 4 3 0 3 6 9 12 15 0 1 2 3 4
REGINA
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
0.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4
Goods sector 26.9 25.0 23.6 24.3 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.3
6220 Hospitals 8.5
8.4 7.0 5.3 3.0 0.3 2.1 1.4 0.7
Manufacturing 6.9 7.0 6.4 7.8 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4
2.0 1.3 8.9 23.4 6.7 1.5 0.1 0.3 411191 Wholesale trade 6.1
Construction 13.8 12.9 12.2 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.7 12.8 9120 Provincial government 5.8
Primary and utilities 6.2 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 5211, 522123, Finance 4.8
10.8 17.7 0.5 5.8 3.1 3.6 0.4 0.5 523139
Services sector 109.9 113.1 115.5 116.2 117.4 119.0 120.6 122.6 624144 Social assistance 4.8
1.4 2.9 2.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6
524142, 526169 Insurance carriers & related 4.3
Transportation and warehousing 5.9 7.4 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 activities
3.0 25.3 26.7 3.0 8.0 2.7 0.2 0.7
4.7 32.1 9.2 7.9 7.9 0.4 0.5 0.0
3.5 4.5 12.5 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0
Chart 3
Finance, insurance, and real estate 11.1 11.5 11.2 10.5 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.2 Employment Market Variability
5.7 3.9 2.5 6.2 4.9 0.4 0.5 1.3
Business services 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.7 11.9 12.4 12.6 12.8 Fluctuations Compared to Canada
6.5 0.2 0.1 7.2 13.5 4.6 1.7 1.7
Personal services 17.1 19.0 19.6 19.2 20.9 21.2 21.7 22.1 Regina 238
7.6 10.9 3.4 2.1 8.5 1.6 2.6 1.7
Canada 100
1.4 3.6 9.3 0.0 3.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 0 100 200 300
3.6 2.4 4.7 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.2 0.9
No link to

REGINA
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 456,669 554,922 523,722 646,542 917,667 863,560 706,396 795,446 681,303 New housing market (2016)
Residential 259,354 209,219 252,340 346,332 535,113 543,325 371,463 280,847 335,508 Single-detached absorptions 703
Growth 1.0%
Non-residential 197,315 345,703 271,382 300,210 382,554 320,235 334,933 514,599 345,795
Industrial 54,971 76,013 43,560 23,496 44,249 25,781 40,442 82,888 23,431
Growth 2.1%
Commercial 86,924 229,598 181,546 200,376 264,172 175,175 248,667 312,228 148,361
Public admin. 55,420 40,092 46,276 76,338 74,133 119,279 45,824 119,483 174,003
Growth 5.6%
Office sector*
No. of square feet 5,685 5,749 5,791 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Growth 0.3%
(000s)
Percentage change 2.5 1.1 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Apartment market (October 2016)
Vacancy rate (%) 1.1 0.8 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Two-bedroom vacancy rate 5.4%
Employment (000s) 34 35 35 38 38 37 38 40 39
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 320 353 291 214 150 173 226 201 236
Business 24 37 24 26 15 14 20 26 29
Chart 5

($ 000s) Regina
0.78
Canada 46.2
Sasktachewan 47.4
Regina 52.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

REGINA
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Regina Saskatchewan Canada
8,000
6,000
Office 0.28 0.19 0.25
4,000
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Regina Canada Regina Canada

Forecast Forecast
2.0 1.3
1.2
1.5
1.1
1.0 1.0
0.9
0.5 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Saskatoon
Summary
Real GDP will rise 3.6per cent in 2017 in Saskatoon and 2.0per cent in 2018
following two annual contractions.
Employment is forecast to increase 0.8per cent in 2017 and 1.2per cent in 2018
after a 0.6per cent dip in 2016. Still, the unemployment rate will hit 8.1per cent
this year before dropping to 6.6per cent in 2018.
We expect Saskatoons population growth to average a solid 2.2per cent

annually in 201718.

SASKATOON

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Saskatoon enjoyed brisk net in-migration during
2016, despite poor economic conditions.
0.8 3.6 2.2 2.7
Out of 13 CMAs #11 #5 #5 #3
i
Housing starts will hit a post-recession low
in2017.
Credit Quality AAA


2016
i
Weaker-than-expected commodity prices continue
Homeownership 0.69 to threaten Saskatchewan and thus Saskatoon.
Rental 1.14
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 5.2 1.1 0.8 3.6 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.3
2.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.6
1.1 3.6 2.2 0.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.9
Population (000s) 299 306 315 323 329 336 343 350
2.8 2.3 3.2 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0
5.5 1.5 1.4 5.2 1.4 2.9 3.0 2.3
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.286 1.310 1.326 1.349 1.379 1.409 1.438 1.468
2.3 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1


Saskatoon | The Conference Board of Canada
Worst May Be Over

Better times lie ahead for Saskatoon, where real
GDP contracted for two straight years, including
a 0.8per cent decline last year. Despite only
modest firming of the prices of commodities
on which Saskatchewan and thus its cities
depend, better prospects for both the goods
andservices sides of Saskatoons economy will
fuel an increase to 3.6 per cent GDP growth this
year, although gains will throttle back to 2.0 per
cent in 2018.
Healthier GDP growth should prove a tonic for the job market. Saskatoons
employment fell 0.6per cent in 2016, the first dip in five years, but a 0.8per
cent increase is our call for this year, to be followed by a stronger 1.2per cent
advance in 2018. The unemployment rate, however, is on track to average
8.1per cent this year as the strengthening economy emboldens job seekers,
spurring even faster labour force growth. Next years larger job gains will trim
the unemployment rate to 6.6per cent. Unfortunately, this remains well above
Saskatoons 20-year average of 5.5per cent.
Nonetheless, continued net in-migration speaks well of potential residents

assessment of Saskatoons economic prospects. The census metropolitan area
performed reasonably by this measure last year: net in-migration hit a three-
year highbut that reflected a surge in international migration, partly due to
acceptance of Syrian refugees, so probably will not be repeated. Net intercity
inflows were also relatively elevated. This lifted Saskatoons population by an
estimated 3.2per cent last year. For 201718, we expect population growth to
cool to an average just over 2per cent. This is still a good showing, given that
Saskatoons population growth averaged 1.7per cent over the 20years to 2016.
It is also well above the projected national average of 1.1 per cent.

Manufacturing Growth Eases

Saskatoons manufacturing sector is poised to expand 1.8per cent in 2017, only
slightly below its 2.0per cent growth in 2016. Stabilizing resource markets have
boosted prospects for firms selling into this market, but encouraging signs are
emerging elsewhere as well. Industry growth will persist in 2018, albeit at a more
subdued 0.6per cent pace. Unfortunately, the medium term looks modest, in
line with a very slow rise in commodities prices. We expect local manufacturing
output growth to average 1.8per cent annually in 201921.
Still, Saskatoons manufacturing sector has performed relatively well by

Canadian standards. Local industry growth exceeded the national average
in2016 and in seven of the previous 10 years and will continue to do so over
thenext few years despite the modest outlook. Given this recent stronger
growth, Saskatoons manufacturing sector was a quarter larger in 2016 than
itwas in 2006, while Canadas was roughly a tenth smaller.
Even though the sector has been expanding, manufacturing employment fell
2.3per cent last year, the third straight annual decline, implying output increases
have come solely through productivity gains. But job growth resumed in the
spring, and we think manufacturing employment will end 2017 up 6.2per
cent. A further gain of 2.3per cent is on tap for 2018. Even these increases,
however, will leave local manufacturing employment 1,700 jobs below its recent
2013peak.
News from the sector includes the purchase of International Road Dynamics
(IRD), a company that builds transportation systems technology, by Ottawa-
based Quarterhill, a technology-focused investment holding company. The deal
will not affect IRDs Saskatoon operations.
Construction Sector Levels Off

Saskatoons construction sector has struggled in the last two years, with output
contracting 18per cent in 2015 and a further 13per cent last year. Both housing
and non-residential construction sagged. Saskatoon building permit data reflects
this; the value of residential permits fell roughly 20per cent in both 2015 and
2016, while that of non-residential permits was down by more than a third
lastyear.

The worst appears to be over, though. Permit values through June this year
equalled their year-earlier level, led by a pickup on the residential side.
Thesewill trickle through to housing starts over the next year or so. Accordingly,
we expect construction output to rise nearly 1per cent this year and a further
Two major office towers are planned for Saskatoons downtown core despite a
weak local commercial real estate market. The World Trade Center Saskatoon is
a nine-storey, $50-million office building proposed for the corner of ThirdAvenue
and 22nd Street. Developer Canwest Commercial & Land Corp. has pushed
its construction start date from summer to fall. Meanwhile, a consortium of
developers is planning a three-tower hotel-condominium-office development
on Parcel Y at River Landing. A construction start on the first of two office
towersa 13-storey buildingis said to be imminent. Ultimately, the project
willalso include a 20-storey condo tower and a 155-room hotel.
Immediate improvement on the residential side is unlikely. Builders continue

to struggle with high inventories of unsold units. Their stocks of unabsorbed
row and apartment units are particularly alarming; each is at least three times
its 20-year average. Backlogs of single-detached units have fallen much more
sharply and are approaching their 20-year average. Still, starts will sag to a post-
recession low below 1,700 units in 2017 and remain under 1,800 units in 2018.
Fortunately, Saskatoon is not obviously overbuilt in the longer-term context;

the ratio of housing starts to absolute population growth was below its
10-year average in both 2015 and 2016. Housing starts are forecast to
exceed2,000units in the last three years of the outlook.
Services Growth Picks Up

Saskatoons services-producing industries are collectively forecast to expand
ata three-year-high pace of 3.6per cent in 2017, up from 1.7per cent in 2016.
The growth pickup comes thanks to an improved outlook in several industries.
As in 2015 and 2016, services output will grow more quickly than the goods
sector both this year and next.
This years acceleration in services growth owes much to a large acceleration

in wholesale and retail trade output growth. Mirroring a rebound in the goods
sector and in employment, Saskatoons trade sector is poised to expand

11percent in 2017, following two straight years of fractional contraction.

Resumed job growth and accelerating retail sales gains underpin the pickup.
Certainly, bricks and mortar retail operations are proliferating in Saskatoon,
although accelerating online sales remain a long-term threat. Major national
chains with new locations here include Costco, GoodLife Fitness, Bed,
Bath&Beyond, and Starbucks. In 2018, ongoing employment and retail
salesgains will fuel further 1.9per cent wholesale and retail trade expansion.
The business services sector, which includes professional services such as

accounting, legal services, engineering, and computer systems design services,
is also poised for a rebound. We expect this industry to expand 2.9per cent
in 2017, the fastest since 2013, following two years of small contractions.
Evenfaster 3.2per cent acceleration is on tap for 2018. Saskatoon hosts a
variety of high-tech firms and start-ups these days. Such outfits are perhaps
inspired by the large investment made by Chinese game developer ZPlay in
Noodlecake Studios, creators of Super Stickman Golf, or by the $1.8-million
federal government infusion in Solido Design Automation to facilitate its
electronic chip manufacturing process.
Finance, insurance, and real estate remains Saskatoons largest services

industry, but growth slowed sharply to a post-recession low of 2.9per cent
in2016 as the citys new and existing housing markets softened. Indeed,
thecitys resale market has languished in a buyers position since late 2014.
The small economic improvement we expect for Saskatoon this year should
limitfurther erosion in the resale market, although finance, insurance, and real
estate output will increase only 2.6per cent in both 2017 and 2018. But such
gains remain well below the industrys average annual 3.8per cent output
growth over the past 20years.

SASKATOON
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 0.8 1.6 Total 3.6 2.2
20 15 10 5 0 5 10 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 5 10 15 0 1 2 3 4
SASKATOON
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
2.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.6
Goods sector 41.6 39.3 36.1 36.8 37.1 37.8 38.2 38.5
6220 Hospitals 11.1
1.2 5.4 8.3 1.9 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.9
Manufacturing 10.5 9.3 9.1 9.7 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.9
Construction 19.8 20.3 17.8 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.0 19.3 411191 Wholesale trade 7.5
Primary and utilities 11.3 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.4 210031 Mining, oil, gas extraction 5.9
6.3 14.3 6.1 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.9
621119 Ambulatory health care services 5.0
Services sector 127.1 130.2 132.4 133.1 134.7 137.3 140.1 142.6
624144 Social assistance 4.4
3.5 2.4 1.7 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8
2.4 6.6 4.6 3.8 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.4
27.3 30.8 10.1 16.7 5.6 0.3 0.1 0.4
4.6 1.9 10.6 6.8 3.0 1.8 2.5 2.1 Saskatoon 260
3.3 8.0 1.9 4.8 4.6 4.0 2.7 1.1
0 100 200 300
3.2 4.9 1.1 1.1 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2
0.5 2.5 6.4 2.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 Canada 50%
SASKATOON
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 912,475 659,620 859,517 1,144,413 1,290,934 1,386,462 1,100,392 1,245,612 867,453 New housing market (2016)
Residential 361,991 277,031 491,142 699,788 829,807 794,262 761,415 583,249 462,702 Single-detached absorptions 1,061
Growth 17.2%
Non-residential 550,484 382,589 368,375 444,625 461,127 592,200 338,977 662,363 404,751
Industrial 158,348 60,787 63,517 51,829 57,131 108,682 41,931 50,158 28,711
Growth 2.0%
Commercial 210,638 133,528 219,956 278,981 240,901 351,165 220,740 334,432 234,673
Public admin. 181,498 188,274 84,902 113,815 163,095 132,353 76,306 277,773 141,367
Growth 7.5%
Office sector*
(000s)
Employment (000s) 29 32 30 29 29 33 33 33 34
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 317 425 406 349 292 301 292 263 376
Business 31 35 24 22 18 11 18 13 14
Chart 5
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada;
Statistics Canada.

($ 000s) Saskatoon
0.93
Canada 46.2
Saskatchewan 47.4
Saskatoon 48.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

SASKATOON
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
10,000
8,000
6,000 Office 0.20 0.19 0.25
2,000
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Saskatoon Canada Saskatoon Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.4 1.3
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.1
0.8 1.0
0.6 0.9
0.4 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Alberta
Summary
Albertas economy is recovering, so much so that it is the fastest-growing

provincial economy this year.
The provinces recovery from the oil price crash will lose speed next year
asoilprices struggle to rise.
The housing market has improved, but there are concerns of overbuilding
inCalgary.

ALBERTA

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Real household consumer spending leads all
other provinces by a significant margin and
3.6 4.4 1.9 1.9
isforecast to increase strongly this year.
i
Drilling rebounded swiftly in 2017 but is not
Credit Quality
expected to repeat that performance in 2018.
A+
Forecast Risk
i
Much uncertainty exists about major pipeline
projects; if they do not proceed, energy
investment growth next year will be lower
thanforecast.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 4.9 3.7 3.6 4.4 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.1
2.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.4
Population (000s) 4,092 4,172 4,243 4,303 4,377 4,456 4,535 4,611
2.8 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7
7.9 4.0 1.2 7.8 2.3 1.9 2.7 2.7
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.322 1.337 1.352 1.378 1.409 1.442 1.471 1.502
2.6 1.2 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1


Alberta | The Conference Board of Canada
Gains Are Being Made

The economic recovery in Alberta is on track
to produce nation-leading economic growth of
4.4per cent this year, driven by strong gains in
household consumption and a return to growth
in the energy sector. Still, real GDP is not
expected to reach its pre-recession peak until
2019, meaning that the long road to recovery
hasjust begun.
Although slightly higher oil prices during the 2017 winter drilling season helped
initiate a return to growth and modest employment gains in the oil sector, the
same type of growth is not foreseen for 2018. The competition from U.S. shale
oil and growing global oil inventories have created a low price environment that
will discourage new large-scale investments and dampen growth in drilling.
Despite this, production from the oil sands has ramped up rapidly because
investments made prior to the recession have come online. That is the main
driver behind the robust 5per cent gain in real exports anticipated this year
and a big contributor to the strong economic performance. Nevertheless, low
oil prices are expected to temper Albertas economic growth to 1.8per cent
nextyear.
Investment on the Upswing

Higher oil prices during the winter drilling season helped kick-start a robust
100per cent bounce-back in drilling this year. However, drilling activity is
not expected to continue at this frantic recovery pace. The West Texas
Intermediate crude oil price is struggling to rise above US$50 per barrel, as
inventories are still elevated and U.S. shale oil production continues to expand,
capping the recovery in drilling.
Still, energy investment will improve in Alberta over the near term, thanks to
pipeline investment, which hit an all-time high of close to $6billion in 2016 and
is projected to increase rapidly throughout the second half of this year and until
late 2020. Forecast growth is being driven by an increase of about $15billion
inprojects to export crude oil, including Kinder Morgans Trans Mountain

pipeline expansion, the Keystone XL pipeline, and Enbridges Line 3 pipeline

replacement. Although much uncertainty hangs the first two of these projects,
ifthey do get under way, total real non-residential investment is forecast to rise
by 6.7per cent in 2018 and by 0.5per cent in 2019.
Albertas housing market has turned the corner, with housing starts expected
to rise from 24,500 units in 2016, to 28,400 units in 2017, and to just above
29,000units in 2018. The rebuilding of fire-ravaged Fort McMurray is providing
a lift, but housing construction is also up in major centres of the province.
However, there are downside risks to housing starts, as inventories of newly built
but unoccupied semi-detached units, row homes, and apartments have been
rising steadily in Calgary and are well above their 10-year averages. A pullback
in this segment of the market is possible.
Chart 1

Office 2.4
Industrial 2.6
Total 2.4
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Consumer Outlook
Alberta is beginning to create jobs again, with employment expected to grow
by more than 22,000 in 2017, a 1.0 per cent increase. However, over 90per
cent of these new jobs will be in the public sector (education, health, and
public administration). In 2018 that will begin to shift, with the majority of the
27,000new jobs forecast for next year in the private sector. The unemployment
rate will decline from 8.1per cent in 2016 to 7.9per cent in 2017 and then
continue to fall over the forecast period to a low of 5.6per cent in 2021.

Alberta | The Conference Board of Canada
Chart 2
(2011 = 1.0)
Alberta Canada
Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast
Meanwhile, wages are also expected to pick up in 2017, but their growth will
remain below inflation, advancing by 0.6per cent after declining 1.4per cent
last year. Wage growth will rise to 2.5per cent in 2018 and should remain
aboveinflation for most of the rest of the forecast.
Real household consumer spending in Alberta leads all provinces by a

significant margin and is expected to grow by 3.8per cent in 2017. Sales
ofrealdurable goods are growing at a blazing 7.8per cent as consumers
makelarge purchases that had been put off during the recession. However,
growth in sales of real durable goods is expected to slow to just 0.5per cent
in 2018. By that time, consumers will have replaced anything damaged in the
FortMcMurray wildfires and bought any items they had postponed purchasing.

Calgary
Summary
Calgarys economy is on track to surge by 4.6per cent this year before slowing
to 2.1per cent growth in 2018.
Employment is expected to increase by 2.7per cent and 1.1per cent,

respectively, this year and next.
The unemployment rate is falling but is projected to remain above the national
average until 2021.

Calgary | The Conference Board of Canada
CALGARY

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Increased activity in the energy sector
ishelpingboost Calgarys economy after
3.2 4.6 2.4 2.3
twoyearsof declines.
Out of 13 CMAs #12 #1 #2 #6
h
A number of residential and non-residential
construction projects will raise construction
Credit Quality AA+ outputthis year for the first time since 2014.

2016
h
The impact of recent flooding and hurricanes
Homeownership 0.96 on U.S. oil production may lead to higher-
thanexpected oil prices.
Rental 1.31
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 5.6 3.0 3.2 4.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6
2.5 2.1 1.5 2.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0
3.1 2.5 0.6 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.3
Population (000s) 1,402 1,434 1,469 1,499 1,527 1,558 1,592 1,625
3.5 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
8.8 2.6 1.2 9.0 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.2
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.327 1.343 1.356 1.382 1.413 1.446 1.475 1.506
3.0 1.2 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1


A Better Year for Calgary

Calgarys economy is expected to expand by
4.6per cent this year, welcome news following
declines averaging 3.1per cent annually through
2015 and 2016. Strengthening oil prices are
helping to boost activity in the regionCanadas
head office hub of the energy industry
leading to increased gains in some of Calgarys
key sectors, including primary and utilities,
construction, and wholesale and retail trade.
The goods sector will lead the way this year with significant increases expected
across the board. Renewed investment and increased drilling are spurring
growth in primary and utilities and in manufacturing, while the construction
sector is benefitting from rising activity in both the residential and non-residential
markets. On the services side, impressive job gains (employment is forecast to
grow 2.7 per cent in 2017 after a 1.5per cent decline last year) are encouraging
consumers to open their purse strings, raising wholesale and retail outputby
7.0per cent. Meanwhile, the transportation and warehousing industry is
receiving a lift from rising goods sector activity, while the finance, insurance, and
real estate industry is benefitting from a housing market recovery. As a result,
both sectors are expected to see output gains of more than 3per cent in 2017.
While there has been improvement in oil prices over the past year, the increases
have been gradual. Production increases, especially in U.S. shale oil, have put a
lid on prices in recent months and, as a result, oil prices are expected to remain
below their pre-recession highs for several years. This suggests that the current
pace of economic growth in Calgary is unsustainable. Indeed, we expect real
GDP growth to slow to 2.1per cent next year. Employment is expected to follow
suit, rising by a more moderate 1.1per cent. Fortunately, this will be enough
to keep Calgarys unemployment rate on a downward trend. Unemployment is
expected to slip to 7.7per cent by 2018, down from a 22-year high of 9.4per
cent last year. Still, Calgarys unemployment rate is expected to remain above
the national average until 2021.

More Moderate Growth Next Year as Oil Prices

MoveSlowly
Calgarys primary and utilities sector, which includes the oil and gas industry
and its head office activity, was hit hard by the collapse in oil prices in late
2014. Undermined by fears of global oversupply and a slowing world economy,
the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price fell from US$107 per barrel in
mid-2014 to below US$30 per barrel early last year. In turn, oil companies cut
both investment and employment. As a result, local primary and utilities output
contracted by 3.7per cent in 2015 and an additional 4.3per cent last year.
Otherrelated sectors were also hard hit. Manufacturing output fell by 5.9per
cent and 7.4per cent, respectively over the past two years, while business
services, which includes engineering, accounting, and legal services, dropped
more than 10per cent in the two years combined.
OPEC meetings at the end of 2016 resulted in agreements to cut production.

This helped to boost the WTI oil price above US$50 per barrel for much
ofthe first half of 2017, prompting oil companies to increase their drilling and
investment plans for this year. Accordingly, primary and utilities output is forecast
to grow by 8.2per cent in 2017. This will, in turn, help boost manufacturing
output by 5.8per cent and business services output by a tiny 0.3per cent.
Unfortunately, the WTI oil price slipped closer to US$40 per barrel at the end of
June, and while there has been some movement upward since then, production
increases have kept prices just under US$50. Although we expect prices to keep
rising in the coming years, increases will be gradual, as U.S. shale producers
have developed the tendency to boost production quickly in response to rising
prices. This is expected to moderate investment plans through next year. Asa
result, output growth in the primary and utilities sector is forecast to slow to
1.9per cent per year over 2018 and 2019, while manufacturing output growth
is expected to decelerate to 2.7 per cent annually. Business services output,
which has been slower to respond to the recovery this year, is forecast to rise
by3.1per cent in 2018, with growth slowing to 2.1per cent in 2019.
Consumers Raise Spending in 2017

Calgarys employment fell through the second half of 2015 and into 2016,
resulting in the loss of 12,500 jobs last year, a decline of 1.5per cent. In turn,
this led to a significant jump in the regions unemployment rate, which rose from

just 5per cent in 2014 to 9.4 per cent in 2016its highest level in 22years. As a
result, personal disposable income growth dipped to a seven-year low of 2.1per
cent last year. All told, these conditions made for a weary consumer. Retail
sales fell 2.6per cent in 2015 before rising by a modest 1.2per cent in 2016.
Not surprising then, output in the wholesale and retail trade sector contracted
by3.2per cent in 2015 and increased by a meagre 0.5 per cent last year.
Thankfully, the economic recovery has encouraged job creation to resume

in 2017, and this has convinced consumers to open their purse strings.
Employment is on track to rise a solid 2.7per cent this year, helping retail sales
and wholesale and retail trade output surge by 9.0per cent and 7.0per cent,
respectively. As employment growth moderates to average 1.3per cent per year
over 201819, consumers are expected to follow suit and boost retail sales by an
average annual rate of 2.2per cent. Partly as a result, wholesale and retail trade
output growth is forecast to reach just 1.2per cent next year and 1.0per cent
in2019.
Construction Sector Slowly Recovers

Calgarys construction sector took a beating during the 201516 recession as
output in the industry shrank by nearly 40per cent. The downturn was felt in
both the non-residential and residential sectors.
In the residential sector, builders reduced housing starts by almost 24per cent
in 2015 and another 29per cent in 2016 as demand fell in line with the struggling
economy and labour market, lowering them to 9,200 units last year, a far cry
from the record 17,100 units started in 2014. Still, even with these declines,
levels of completed but unoccupied units have remained stubbornly high.
Butwith the pickup in the energy sector and the resulting gains in employment,
demand for housing is now returning. The new home market is also being
helped by a recent year-over-year decline in listings in the resale housing
market. As a result, builders are returning to the market. Permits for a number
ofcondominiums, including the Crosstown towers and the Aris tower, along with
a new seniors residence, were all approved in the last few months. Housing
starts are expected to rise to 12,000 units this year and 12,200 units in 2018.

The non-residential sector is also on the comeback trail. A key project of

note is the $78-million Crosstown mixed-use development, which will see the
construction of a pedestrian-friendly street area with a grocery store and other
shopping in addition to four planned residential towers. Infrastructure spending
by all levels of government is also adding to growth. The Alberta government
has approved billions of dollars in infrastructure spending for the province
over the next four years. In Calgary, this will mean the construction of two new
schools, the Green Line LRT, and the $1.2-billion Calgary Cancer Centre, which
will be an addition to the Foothills Medical Centre.
The one area where construction spending is expected to remain weak over
the next few years is the office sector. The combination of significant new office
construction and energy sector layoffs pushed Calgarys office vacancy rate up
to a 30-year high of 25per cent in 2016. It has continued to climb even higher in
2017, reaching almost 28per cent by mid-year. Even with employment increases
this year and next, it is expected to take many years for enough empty space
to be absorbed to convince construction to begin anew. All in all, construction
output is forecast to grow by 1.7per cent in 2017 and 2.8per cent next year.

CALGARY
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 2.7 1.6 Total 4.6 2.4
15 0 15 30 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
CALGARY
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
2.5 2.1 1.5 2.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0
Goods sector 201.0 189.6 183.6 169.8 179.3 178.6 181.0 183.5
210031 Mining, oil, gas extraction 52.8
3.2 5.7 3.2 7.5 5.6 0.4 1.4 1.4
Manufacturing 49.2 46.7 41.0 40.2 41.5 42.4 42.9 43.2
6.5 5.1 12.3 1.8 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.8 541314 Architectural, engineering, and 35.3
design services
Construction 83.8 76.5 78.5 71.9 77.1 74.5 75.9 77.4
6220 Hospitals 32.0
5.2 8.7 2.6 8.4 7.2 3.3 1.9 1.9
Services sector 598.1 626.5 620.0 655.5 654.8 667.1 679.7 694.1 621119 Ambulatory health care services 25.6
2.3 4.8 1.0 5.7 0.1 1.9 1.9 2.1
8.8 13.1 14.6 18.7 6.3 3.6 0.9 1.0
2.9 5.4 16.2 1.1 6.5 0.2 0.4 0.7
7.2 5.4 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.5
Chart 3
6.9 1.9 0.8 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.4 1.6
0.2 7.4 7.6 2.0 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.6
Calgary 202
1.2 9.0 3.2 6.3 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 Canada 100
0 50 100 150 200 250
0.7 11.9 2.2 9.4 1.6 4.1 3.3 3.7
0.8 5.3 5.7 21.8 3.9 0.4 2.2 1.9 No link to
Canada 34%
Shaded area represents forecast data; italics indicate percentage change.
First line of employment data is in thousands and second line is percentage change. Link to Canada 66%

CALGARY
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Non-residential 2,742,663 2,410,724 1,321,752 2,463,799 1,979,139 2,820,748 2,754,032 2,774,847 2,036,044
Industrial 202,063 82,713 175,183 759,355 264,720 225,279 181,947 230,333 94,111
Commercial 1,764,836 1,261,143 805,517 1,433,694 1,403,101 2,223,951 2,138,866 1,599,618 1,402,593
Public admin. 775,764 1,066,868 341,052 270,750 311,318 371,518 433,219 944,896 539,340

Office sector*
No. of square feet 33,114 35,703 36,743 36,743 38,542 38,542 39,291 40,014 41,160
Bankruptcies
Consumer 1,846 3,128 2,688 2,496 2,163 1,555 1,178 1,237 1,390 Chart 5
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Calgary
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Alberta 56.1
Calgary 63.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

CALGARY
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Calgary Alberta Canada
40,000
30,000
Office 0.26 0.22 0.25
20,000
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Calgary Canada Calgary Canada

Forecast Forecast
2.0 1.3
1.8 1.2
1.6
1.1
1.4
1.2 1.0
1.0 0.9
0.8 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Edmonton
Summary
Edmontons real GDP is expected to increase by 3.9per cent in 2017the first

increase in three yearsand by a further 2.2per cent in 2018.
In spite of high inventories, builders have come back to Edmontons housing

market, raising starts this year. Starts should fall next year though.
Slow employment growth and a fast-growing labour force will keep Edmontons
unemployment rate above 8per cent in 2017.

Edmonton | The Conference Board of Canada
EDMONTON

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 The large and growing public sector helped
stabilize the economy and employment in
3.4 3.9 2.3 2.4
thewake of the oil shock.
Out of 13 CMAs #13 #2 #3 #5
h
Consumers are opening their purse strings
in2017, boosting retail sales by more than
Credit Quality AA+ 8percent.

2016
h
Medium-term construction output in
Homeownership 0.76 Edmontonmay be higher than expected
iftheTrans Mountain pipeline goes ahead.
Rental 1.28
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 5.1 3.2 3.4 3.9 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4
2.3 2.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8
2.0 3.9 2.7 0.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4
Population (000s) 1,328 1,359 1,393 1,422 1,447 1,474 1,502 1,530
3.5 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9
7.6 1.2 1.0 8.3 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.0
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.318 1.334 1.349 1.375 1.406 1.438 1.467 1.498
2.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1


Looking to the Bright Side

The worst appears to be over for Edmonton.
Indeed, real GDP growth is on track to clock in
at 3.9per cent in 2017. This is a welcome change
from the 3.3 per cent average annual decline
seen in the past two years as the region was
stung by the collapse in oil prices in late 2014.
The goods-producing industries were hit particularly hard by the oil price shock,
with broad-based declines in all three major sectorsprimary and utilities,
manufacturing, and construction. On the services side, wholesale andretail
trade and business services were two of the hardest-hit industries. But things
could have been even worse if not for the fact that Edmonton benefitted from
its status as the provincial capital. Indeed, thanks to a large and growing
public sector, output growth in the services sector remained positive during the
recession. Public sector employment was particularly strong over this period,
helping to keep employment growth positive over 201516 too. However, labour
force growth was even faster, and this caused Edmontons unemployment rate
tojump from 5.9per cent in 2015 to 7.3per cent in 2016. As well, consumers
were still spooked by the poor economic conditions, resulting in back-to-back
declines in retail sales over 201516.
But higher oil prices have led to renewed growth in Edmonton this year. As oil
companies have increased investment and drilling plans, the region has started
to see increased economic activity. Both the primary and utilities industry and
manufacturing are expected to post strong gains in 2017. And with housing starts
set to rise, output in the construction sector is also expected to bounce back.
Despite an only modest forecast rise in employment this year, disposable

income gains and brighter economic prospects will help encourage consumer
spending. Retail trade has been robust and is expected to push growth in
wholesale and retail trade above 4per cent for 2017. Unfortunately, the tepid
employment gains will be outpaced by labour force growth this year, as people
return to the market in response to increased economic activity, meaning
another year of rising unemployment. Edmontons unemployment rate is
expected to reach 8.2per cent in 2017, its highest rate since 1996.

The outlook for the economy over the next couple of years is more modest.
While oil prices have risen, they remain below pre-recession levels and are
expected to show only gradual increases over the next few years. This will keep
oil companies from making new large-scale investments and dampen growth in
drilling. As a result, economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.2per cent in each
of 2018 and 2019, although this will still be enough to support stronger job gains.
Accordingly, Edmontons unemployment rate will fall back somewhat to 7.4per
cent next year.
Modest Gains in Oil Prices

The collapse in oil prices in late 2014 forced energy firms in Edmonton and
across the province to cut both investment and employment. As a result, output
in Edmontons primary and utilities contracted by an average of 5.8per cent per
year over 201516. The local manufacturing sector, with strong ties to the energy
industry, did even worse, with output shrinking 8.3per cent per year. Edmontons
manufacturing sector was also affected by the wildfires in FortMcMurray,
which resulted in the temporary shutdown of the regions oil sands production
for nearly a month. This lower oil production led to reduced demand for
manufactured products used to supply the oil and gas sector, including those
produced in Edmonton.
Fortunately, oil prices have since begun to improve. A late 2016 agreement
by 24OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut crude oil production by
1.8millionbarrels per day helped push prices above US$50 per barrel in the
first half of 2017. This had given oil companies the confidence to boost their
investment and drilling plans. As a result, output in Edmontons primary and
utilities sector is forecast to advance by 7.2per cent this year, while output in
itsmanufacturing sector is expected to grow by 5.6per cent. The manufacturing
sector is also benefitting from new oil sands production that is coming online
thisyear.
However, the WTI oil price slipped to nearly US$40 in late June and has hovered
just below US$50 since. Only modest gains are forecast for the next couple of
years as well. This is expected to keep oil companies from investing in large-
scale developments and to keep the growth in drilling moderate. Accordingly,
output in primary and utilities and in manufacturing is projected to grow at a

more moderate clip in the coming years, with the former expanding by 2.3per
cent per year over 201819 and the latter increasing by an annual average rate
of 3.0per cent.
Construction Growth Positive in 2017

The hardest-hit sector over the past couple of years was Edmontons
construction sector, which saw output fall by 15.5per cent in 2015 and 16.6per
cent last year. A huge drop in non-residential investment was the main culprit
in 2015, while a significant drop in residential investment added to the sectors
woes in 2016. Surprisingly, housing starts actually increased in 2015, coming
in at 17,100 units that yeara level not seen since 1978thanks to a record
number of multi-family starts in the first quarter. But falling demand and swelling
inventories convinced builders to retreat from the new home market last year,
reducing total starts to 10,000 units.
Although inventories remained high in the first half of 2017, the prospects of
stronger demand due to the improving economy have brought builders back this
year. Total housing starts have been growing so far in 2017, especially inthe
single-detached market, and are expected to reach 11,700 units in total for the
year. However, with growth in the economy expected to moderate, builders will
once again take a break in 2018 to keep inventories under control. Accordingly,
total housing starts are expected to fall to just under 11,000 units next year.
On the non-residential side, reduced investment in the energy sector eclipsed

a busy non-residential non-energy market through 2015 and 2016. A significant
amount of work has been done over the past few years to update and revitalize
the citys downtown core. Included in the list of projects completed in recent
years is the new Rogers Place Arena, the Royal Albert Museum, new hotels
andstores, college expansions, and millions of square feet of new office
space. In addition, projects continuing or beginning this year include the
new ValleyLineLRT, the MacEwan Centre for the Arts, the redevelopment
of the old Molson brewery building, a new city park and funicular, and a new
Premium Outlet mall. Stantec Tower is expected to be completed by next year
as well. These projects will combine with the rise in housing starts to boost
total construction output by 4.4per cent this year. A solid 3.3per cent gain is
ourcallfor next year.

Consumers Spending Again

Some industries in Edmontons services sector were also hit hard by the
downturn in the energy sector. Still, output growth stayed positive and averaged
0.8per cent annually from 201516, thanks to strong growth in the public sector
(health care, education, and public administration). Over 2015 and 2016, more
than 47,000 new jobs were created in non-commercial services and public
administration, part of an effort to keep the provincial economy afloat. Thismore
than offset big declines in industries such as wholesale and retail trade, where
output declined by 6.7per cent in 2015 and 3.2per cent in 2016. Retail trade
was hurt by poor consumer spending, while wholesale trade felt the pinch of
a contracting goods sector. Business services, which includes accounting,
engineering, and legal services, also shrank over the recession.
But wholesale and retail trade and business services are on the comeback trail
this year. With employment and personal disposable income growth picking
up, consumers are more encouraged to spend again. Retail sales are forecast
to rise by a vigorous 8.3per cent this year and a more moderate 2.4per cent
in 2018. This will translate into increases of 4.5per cent and 1.1per cent in
wholesale and retail trade output in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The business
services sector is also growing again, with stronger growth in the cards for 2018.
In contrast, with the economy improving, the provincial government will take a
back seat to the private sector this year and next, with output growth slowing
in both non-commercial services and in public administration. Put together,
aggregate services sector output is forecast to expand by 2.9per cent this year
and by 1.9per cent next year.

EDMONTON
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 0.4 1.6 Total 3.9 2.3
12 8 4 0 4 8 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
EDMONTON
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
Total employment 744.0 761.6 761.8 764.9 774.1 786.4 799.3 813.7 231129 Construction 92.3
2.3 2.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8
44114543 Retail trade 80.3
Goods sector 187.9 193.7 167.7 167.3 168.3 169.6 172.4 175.3
6220 Hospitals 43.0
1.9 3.1 13.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.7 1.7
Manufacturing 56.7 51.9 41.5 41.5 41.5 43.2 43.7 44.2
3.3 8.5 20.0 0.0 0.1 4.1 1.1 1.0 411191 Wholesale trade 31.5
Primary and utilities 42.2 37.6 33.7 36.2 35.4 35.4 35.7 36.1 9120 Provincial government 23.2
2.4 10.8 10.3 7.2 2.3 0.1 0.8 1.3
210031 Mining, oil, gas extraction 21.9
Services sector 556.1 567.9 594.0 597.5 605.8 616.8 626.9 638.3
621119 Ambulatory health care services 21.8
2.5 2.1 4.6 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.8
12.0 3.0 11.1 3.8 1.5 3.2 0.7 0.7
20.6 9.3 6.1 4.4 3.9 1.4 0.7 0.9
12.7 2.9 1.5 1.6 2.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 Edmonton 193
5.4 4.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.2
0 50 100 150 200 250
0.4 13.1 5.9 0.2 2.5 3.0 2.1 2.0
0.0 13.9 17.0 8.7 3.7 2.0 1.7 2.1 Canada 34%
EDMONTON
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Non-residential 1,943,431 1,765,819 1,338,453 1,418,953 1,701,853 1,991,604 2,347,948 2,139,451 2,340,202
Industrial 312,368 402,768 182,348 149,079 298,411 223,206 276,257 182,927 334,576
Commercial 1,151,785 990,191 981,304 1,101,235 1,147,538 1,149,746 1,565,818 1,458,697 1,539,850
Public admin. 479,278 372,860 174,801 168,639 255,904 618,652 505,873 497,827 465,776

Office sector*
No. of square feet 13,944 14,150 14,150 14,746 14,746 14,728 14,682 15,018 16,135
Bankruptcies
Consumer 1,968 3,045 2,527 2,074 1,577 1,329 1,160 1,168 1,561 Chart 5
Highly diverse = 1
Not diverse = 0
Chart 4 Edmonton
($ 000s)
Canada 46.2
Alberta 56.1
Edmonton 54.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

EDMONTON
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Edmonton Alberta Canada
40,000
30,000
Office 0.24 0.22 0.25
20,000
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Edmonton Canada Edmonton Canada

Forecast Forecast
2.0 1.3
1.8 1.2
1.6
1.1
1.4
1.2 1.0
1.0 0.9
0.8 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
British Columbia
Summary
The B.C. economy will expand by 2.7per cent this year and 2.4per cent
in2018.
The decline in growth below the 3.0per cent mark is mainly due to an
anticipated slowdown in the housing market.
Job creation remains strong, as employers are poised to add nearly

84,000workers to their payrolls this year, although we anticipate a
significantslowdown to 31,600 net new jobs in 2018.

British Columbia | The Conference Board of Canada
BRITISH COLUMBIA

(per cent)
i
2016 2017 201821 201221 The forestry industry has been hurt by the
mountain pine beetle, U.S. import duties,
3.6 2.7 2.1 2.6
andforest fires.
i
Petronas cancelled its planned LNG project
Credit Quality
ontheB.C. coast.
AAA
Forecast Risk
i
If the U.S. and Canadian governments fail to
reachan agreement on the softwood lumber
dispute, B.C. lumber exports would be hurt
evenmore.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 3.2 3.1 3.6 2.7 2.4 1.9 2.7 1.5
0.6 1.3 3.1 3.5 1.3 0.9 1.5 0.7
Population (000s) 4,640 4,690 4,743 4,797 4,854 4,910 4,964 5,019
1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
6.3 6.9 7.4 7.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 2.1
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.189 1.202 1.224 1.246 1.272 1.302 1.328 1.356
1.0 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.1


B.C. Economy Facing Headwinds From

Housing, Energy, and Forestry
British Columbias economy faces several challenges over the near term in
threekey sectorshousing, energy, and forestrythat will weaken growth from
the plus 3per cent range that occurred in 201416. We expect real GDP in B.C.
to expand by 2.7per cent this year, down from a gain of 3.6per cent in 2016.
Growth will remain tepid in 2018 as well, with anticipated growth of 2.4per cent
in real GDP.
The news is not entirely bleak for B.C., however, as the new NDP government
recently announced that the province ran a $2.7-billion surplus in fiscal year
201617 and projected another $246-million surplus in 201718the envy
of most Canadian provinces struggling with high deficits and debt levels.
Jobgrowth also remains brisksome 84,000 net new jobs are expected to
becreated across the province this year. The sound job market, along with
firming home prices, likely explains the continued solid pace of household
spending. Infact, real consumer spending is expected to increase by 3.0per
cent in 2017, up from 2.9per cent last year. But we think things will slow sharply
next year; employers are projected to add a more modest 31,600 workers to
payrolls, limiting real household spending growth to 2.2per cent.
Chart 1
(2011 = 1.0)
British Columbia Canada

Forecast
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
f = forecast

British Columbia | The Conference Board of Canada
New Home Construction Weakening

The housing market will continue to struggle as a result of steps taken by the
federal and provincial government to take some of the steam out of soaring
home prices, particularly the 15per cent tax on foreign purchases of property
implemented by the B.C. government in August of last year and steps taken
bythe federal government to make it more difficult to obtain a mortgage.
Theslump in the provinces housing market is apparent from the drop in housing
starts expected over the near term. Starts increased by 33.0per cent last year
but are forecast to decline by 2.6per cent this year and by an even greater
Forestry Faces Challenges on Several Fronts

The forestry industry is dealing with a host of negative developments that will
result in real output dropping by 3.2per cent this year with only a slight rebound
to 0.1growth anticipated in 2018. The mountain pine beetle remains an issue
forthe industry, but a potentially even larger challenge is the imposition of tariffs
on softwood lumber exports from Canada by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
The lumber tariffs could cause job losses in the thousands over the near term.
Federal and provincial aid packages will help somewhat but wont offset all
thedamage created by the duties. Adding to the difficulties for the industry
isthefact that this years wildfire season has been the worst in six decades.
Chart 2

Office 2.7
Industrial 1.8
Total 2.2
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

LNG Plant Cancellation Huge Setback for Mineral

Fuels Industry
The latest news for the mineral fuels industry has also been bleak. The new
NDP government doesnt support the expansion of Kinder Morgans Trans
Mountain pipeline and, while the president of the company announced recently
that the expansion will go ahead in the autumn of this year, the project remains
uncertain. Even more troubling for the B.C. economy was the recent decision
by Malaysias Petronas to cancel plans for an $11.4-billion liquefied natural gas
(LNG) project on the B.C.coast. All told, we expect real output in the mineral
fuels sector to expand by a miniscule 1.1 and 1.2per cent in 2017 and 2018,
respectively. Last year, activity expanded by 12.2per cent.

Vancouver
Summary
Vancouvers real GDP growth is forecast to ease from 4.1per cent in 2016
to3.2per cent in 2017. An even more modest 2.5per cent advance is our
callfor 2018.
Employment is forecast to rise 2.4per cent in 2017 and a further 1.5per cent
in2018, following a 4.7per cent jump in 2016.
Net in-migration is forecast to hit an eight-year high in 2018.

VANCOUVER

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Vancouvers unemployment rate will hit
anineyear low of 5.1per cent in 2017.
4.1 3.2 2.3 3.1
Out of 13 CMAs #1 #7 #4 #1
i
A recently cooler housing market has trimmed
growth in various industries.
Credit Quality AA+


2016
i
A severe housing market correction would likely
Homeownership 1.92 inflict widespread economic damage.
Rental 1.51
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 3.9 4.2 4.1 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.0
2.3 1.8 4.7 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3
1.8 5.5 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7
Population (000s) 2,482 2,507 2,549 2,591 2,628 2,665 2,703 2,742
1.5 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
6.7 9.9 6.5 6.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.5
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.205 1.219 1.246 1.272 1.301 1.332 1.358 1.386
1.1 1.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.1


Vancouver | The Conference Board of Canada
Slowing but Decent Times Ahead

Vancouvers economy is throttling back following several years of strong growth.
Local real GDP is forecast to grow 3.2per cent in 2017 and 2.5per cent in
2018, after expanding nearly 4per cent annually on average during the previous
fiveyears. In part, this reflects the fallout from a cooler housing market, slowed
by the 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers levied by the provincial government
and tighter mortgage rules introduced by the federal government, but factors
like an increased mood of protectionism in the U.S., a slightly higher dollar that
is shaving export potential (including tourism), and the citys notoriously poor
housing affordability also weigh in.
Moderating output growth will be accompanied by slowing job gains. Following

a 4.7per cent advance in 2016, employment is set to rise 2.4per cent this
year and 1.5per cent in 2018. Still, this will be sufficient to cut Vancouvers
unemployment rate to 5.1per centa nine-year lowin 2017 and shave
itfurther to 5.0per cent in 2018.
Vancouvers natural beauty and favourable Pacific Rim location have proven
magnetic for years; the area has enjoyed an uninterrupted string of net inflows
since at least 1987expensive housing notwithstanding. The decent economy
we expect simply adds to the citys attractiveness. Accordingly, we expect net
in-migration to exceed 30,000 people both this year and in 2018the most
since 2010. This will boost Vancouvers population by 1.7per cent in 2017 and
afurther 1.4per cent next year.
Manufacturing Output Growth Cooling

Vancouver has a relatively small manufacturing sector by national standards
we estimate that the industry generated about 7per cent of local GDP last year,
compared with its 10.5per cent share Canada-wide. Still, the industry has been
an important contributor to local growth in recent years; indeed, manufacturing
output expanded by a total of 22per cent between 2011 and 2016, nearly triple
the national pace. This included a gain of 5.4per cent in 2016 alone. Output
growth is projected to slow to 2.4per cent this year, but a pickup to 3.1per cent
growth is on tap for 2018.

The more moderate outlook comes as B.C. and Vancouver manufacturers

face a variety of near-term challenges. A slightly higher Canadian dollar and
renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement introduce uncertainty
about the potential for exports. A struggling provincial forestry sector in B.C.
hit by U.S. tariffs, forest fires, and the mountain pine beetlemight be unable
to adequately supply wood product firms in Vancouver. In common with all
Vancouver employers, manufacturers face the hurdle of luring talent to a city
with very high housing costs. But a healthy U.S.economy provides a ray of
manufacturing hope.
Work continues at Seaspans North Vancouver shipyard on a variety of contracts,

including an $8-billion federal contract to build 17non-combat ships. Deliveries
will begin next year and continue through 2020. In 2016, the shipyard was
granted a further $65million to build naval support ships and a science vessel
for the coast guard. Then, in early 2017, Seaspan won a $230-million contract to
help create two supply ships for the Royal Canadian Navy. These programs are
not without controversy, however. Recent press reports suggest federal officials
are reviewing the budgets and construction schedules of these supply vessels
following a delay in the construction of the coast guards boats.
Brisk job growth has accompanied manufacturings output expansion, but a

slight employment contraction looms. Over the past five years, the industrys job
increases have averaged 2.9per cent annually, including gains of above 5per
cent in each of 2014 and 2015. This year, by contrast, we expect Vancouver
manufacturing employment to dip 0.6per cent. This loss will be more than
recouped by the 4.0per cent employment growth we forecast for the industry
in2018. As a result, Vancouver will continue to outpace the provincial and
national averages on this front. If our forecast proves accurate, the level of
manufacturing employment in Vancouver will be 1.1per cent higher in 2018
thanin 2008, compared with being 1.6per cent lower in B.C. and 10.1per cent
lower in Canada.
Construction Builds More Slowly

Output of Vancouvers construction industry is on track to post a 1.5per cent
increase this year, down from 5.5per cent expansion in 2016. A pickup to
1.9per cent growth is on tap for 2018.

Vancouvers new-home market is emitting mixed signals while suffering the

fallout from the foreign buyers tax and tighter federal government mortgage
rules. Unsold stocks of multi-family units are off by roughly a third this year, led
by a big decline in apartment inventories, which have fallen for 44 consecutive
months and are hovering near 10-year lows. This points both to strong demand
for these relatively affordable units and to relatively weak construction of
multiples this year following a surge in 2016. Meanwhile, inventories of pricier
single-detached homes are rising and historically elevated. This could reflect
therelative absence of foreign purchasers who might buy such units, as well
asa modest 2016 increase in their construction.
Rising interest rates, the relative absence of foreign purchasers, and a slowing
economy will all temper Vancouver housing demand slightly. Weexpect
total starts to drop 9 per cent this year to just under 25,400 units, with
both single-family and multiple starts easing. Another albeit smaller dip to
roughly 23,600starts is our call for 2018. Both single and multiple starts will
again ease. Still, the near-term outlook for housing starts remains strong.
Theprojected figures for 2017 and 2018 are well above the prior 10-year
averageof18,700units.
Fortunately, solid non-residential investment activity will help offset easing

housing starts and keep total construction output growth in positive territory.
Keyprojects include One Burrard Place, a four-tower complex featuring
1.1million square feet of residential and commercial space, valued at
$500million, and the 10-year, $1.8-billion expansion of the Vancouver
International Airport.
On a negative note, the non-residential sector will take a hit from the decision
by B.C.s new NDP government to re-examine the replacement of the Massey
Tunnel across the Fraser River between Richmond and Delta with a $3.5-billion,
10-lane bridge. The new bridge was supposed to be partly paid for by tolls,
butthe new government has ruled this out after campaigning on the elimination
ofbridge tolls in the region.

Services Expansion Hit by Foreign Buyers Tax

Growth in aggregate output of Vancouvers services sector is poised to cool
to3.7per cent in 2017 and, further, to 2.6per cent in 2018. Next years forecast
advance would be the slowest since 2010 and follow annual gains averaging just
over 4 per cent in the past five years, including a 4.2per cent increase in 2016.
Despite this easing growth, we expect all eight services industries to expand in
both 2017 and 2018.
A cooler resale market in the wake of the 15per cent foreign buyers tax levied
by British Columbias government in August 2016 is trimming output growth
in finance, insurance, and real estate, which had averaged about 5 per cent
annually in the four years to 2016. The tax certainly did reduce foreign real
estate involvement. B.C. government data show that foreigners were involved in
9per cent of residential transactions in July 2016 (before the tax was imposed)
in the provinces lower mainlandsouthwest region; this share fell to roughly
1per cent in August 2016 and has since stabilized near 3per cent.
Despite falling sales post-tax, Vancouvers resale market remained balanced

because listings also pulled back. The market is now strengthening and,
indeed, has been on the verge of sellers conditions since February. This has
prompted resumed price growthVancouvers average resale value rose from
a year earlier in four straight months through August and hit a record high in
May. Thestabilizing resale market will allow finance, insurance, and real estate
outputto rise 3.4 per cent this year and a further 3.0 per cent in 2018.
Although local resale underpinnings remain decent, national risks lurk. These
start with rising interest rates, which will further erode Vancouvers already
poor housing affordability. Another looming issue is a proposal by the Office
ofthe Superintendent of Financial Institutions, which regulates banks, to require
financial institutions to use a qualifying rate of the contracted mortgage rate plus
2per cent for all uninsured mortgages. If implemented, this would seriously limit
Vancouver residents housing choices.
Elsewhere on the services side, decent employment gains have spurred brisk
retail sales growth over the past three years. Wholesale and retail trade output
expansion has averaged nearly 5 per cent annually over this period and is on

track to jump 5.9 per cent in 2017. We expect trade growth to cool to 2.5 per cent
in 2018 as slower job and income gains and rising interest rates limit retail sales
growth to a five-year low of 2.6 per cent.
Meanwhile, the transportation and warehousing industry, a key local economic

cluster, is expected to see output growth cool to 5.0 per cent in 2017 and to
2.7per cent in 2018 following outsized advances above 7 per cent in each
of 2015 and 2016. Tourism is an important contributor to this industry. News
from the sector includes continued strong gains in passenger movements at
Vancouvers airport. After welcoming a record 22.3million passengers in 2016,
the airport saw passenger movements rise a further 8per cent from a year
earlier in 2017 through July, led by a 15 per cent jump in Asia-Pacific traffic.

VANCOUVER
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 2.4 1.5 Total 3.2 2.3
5 0 5 10 15 6 4 2 0 2 4 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4
VANCOUVER
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
2.3 1.8 4.7 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3
Goods sector 218.5 222.8 226.9 230.1 229.4 235.0 237.2 238.3
3.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.3 2.5 0.9 0.5
Manufacturing 90.5 95.4 97.1 96.5 100.4 100.5 101.4 101.7
6.8 5.4 1.8 0.6 4.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 6220 Hospitals 56.6
Construction 104.2 103.0 109.4 114.5 110.5 114.6 115.6 116.3 5511, 561112, Other management and 51.2
562129
5.0 2.8 16.6 6.3 3.5 7.7 1.2 1.0
Services sector 1,057.2 1,075.3 1,132.3 1,162.3 1,184.6 1,200.7 1,221.6 1,239.4
2.1 1.7 5.3 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 5211, 522123, Finance 44.7
523139
1.7 1.7 10.9 1.8 5.7 1.3 1.7 1.3
7.2 1.1 3.6 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.6 Vancouver 168
0.1 6.3 1.4 3.0 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.6
0 50 100 150 200
12.1 5.4 3.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.4
Link to Canada 72%

VANCOUVER
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Non-residential 2,206,313 1,463,630 1,648,390 1,756,869 2,374,941 1,776,773 2,386,094 2,367,440 2,028,366
Industrial 124,198 94,177 90,534 135,674 190,824 160,897 144,834 240,518 182,598
Commercial 1,710,101 971,661 1,057,762 1,199,332 1,554,497 1,271,533 1,549,073 1,631,737 1,446,507
Public admin. 372,014 397,792 500,094 421,863 629,620 344,343 692,187 495,185 399,261

Office sector*
No. of square feet 21,777 21,799 21,873 21,931 21,889 21,812 21,906 23,693 23,582
Bankruptcies
Consumer 3,361 4,686 4,119 3,386 3,171 3,038 2,581 2,210 1,733 Chart 5
Highly diverse = 1
Chart 4 Not diverse = 0
Personal Income Per Capita, 2016 Vancouver
($ 000s) 0.92
Canada 46.2
British Columbia 46.8
Vancouver 46.8 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

VANCOUVER
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Vancouver British Columbia Canada
45,000
30,000
Office 0.28 0.25 0.25
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Vancouver Canada Vancouver Canada

Forecast Forecast
1.6 1.3
1.4 1.2
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.0 0.9
0.8 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Victoria
Summary
Victorias economy is expected to moderate but remain healthy over the near
term, expanding by 2.4per cent in 2017 and 2.2per cent in 2018, following
back-to-back 2.8per cent gains over 201516.
The job market is hotemployers are projected to add some 7,100 workers
totheir payrolls this year, the biggest one-year gain since 2008. But next year,
the economy is expected to create just 400 net new jobs.
An already tight labour market is expected to tighten furtherVictorias

unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 5.2per cent in 2016 to 4.4per cent
in2018.

Victoria | The Conference Board of Canada
VICTORIA

(per cent)
h
2016 2017 201821 201221 Housing starts hit a 27-year high in 2016.
2.8 2.4 1.9 1.9
Out of 13 CMAs #4 #12 #9 #9
i
Job growth is expected to slow sharply
next year.
Credit Quality n.a.

(versus national average) Forecast Risk
2016
i
Homeownership 1.33 A severe housing correction in B.C. would hurt
provincial government revenues, likely leading
Rental 1.23
tolower-than-expected hiring in Victorias key
public sector.
Economic Indicators
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(2007 $ millions) 1.6 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.5
2.6 1.8 3.3 3.8 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.9
2.6 4.1 1.9 3.1 2.2 3.0 3.0 2.9
Population (000s) 362 367 371 375 379 383 386 390
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
6.1 6.7 5.8 6.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0
CPI (2002 = 1.000) 1.173 1.186 1.207 1.234 1.262 1.292 1.318 1.345
0.9 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.1


Economy Cooling Off to Still

HealthyRates
Victoria has finally pulled itself out of a soft
patch that struck the economy for several
years. In fact, real GDP climbed by a meagre
0.8per cent per year from 2008 to 2014. But
theeconomy finally turned the corner in
201516, posting back-to-back increases of
2.8per cent. A rebound in the all-important
public sector has been a key factor driving
theturnaround, as recent surpluses posted
bythe B.C. government have given it the fiscal
capacity to increasespending.
Although the economy has started to cool off, real GDP growth is expected
to surpass or meet the 2per cent mark through 2020. Over the near term, we
expect Victorias economy to expand by 2.4per cent in 2017 and by 2.2per cent
in 2018.
The local job market has also performed much better lately. Victorias employers
shed a total of 5,500 workers over 200814 when the economy was in a deep
funk. Fortunately, the economy has more than recouped all those losses since
then, with employers adding 9,000 workers to their payrolls over 201516and
on track to add a further 7,100 workers in 2017. But this pace of hiring is
unsustainable, so we think the job market will take a bit of a breather next year,
with employment rising by only 400 in 2018.
The combination of rising employment and an aging workforce implies that an

already tight labour market will tighten even further in the coming years. Over
the near term, Victorias unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 5.2per cent
in 2016 to 4.4per cent in 2018.

Public Sector Outlook Stable

The government-funded public sector plays a significant role in Victorias
economy, as the metro area is home to both the provincial capital and to major
non-commercial institutions like the University of Victoria, Camosun College,
and Victoria General Hospital. In 2016, the health care, education, and public
administration sectors together accounted for nearly 30 per cent of real GDP
and one-third of employment.
It is not surprising, therefore, that Victorias economy struggled while the B.C.
government held the line on spending, especially between the 201213 and
201415 fiscal years when spending stayed essentially flat. Largely as a result,
public sector output in Victoria fell at an average annual clip of 0.9per cent over
201014. But the B.C. government is now posting large surpluses, giving it the
fiscal capacity to increase spending. In fact, it was revealed in the NDPs first
budget this past September that the province ran a $2.7-billion surplus in fiscal
year 201617, following surpluses of $1.66billion in 201415 and $811million
in 201516. Accordingly, public sector output in Victoria has started to expand
again, including a 2.5per cent increase in 2015 and a 1.8per cent gain in 2016.
Although the large B.C. government surpluses are not expected to continue,
things will remain rosy, as the recent B.C. budget projected surpluses of
$246million in 201718 and $228million in 201819. As a result, public sector
output in Victoria is forecast to keep growing over the near term, coming in at
2.2per cent in 2017 and 2.1per cent in 2018.
Private Services OutlookImpressive 2017 to Give

Way to More Moderate 2018
At the same time, several private services industries are enjoying strong gains
in 2017. This, combined with the stable public sector outlook, will allow total
services sector output growth in Victoria to accelerate from 2.3per cent in
2016 to 2.5per cent in 2017. Unfortunately, many of these same industries are
projected to experience more moderate expansions in 2018, setting the stage
forslightly slower output growth of 2.2per cent in the aggregate services sector.
Activity has been particularly vigorous in wholesale and retail trade, with 2017
growth likely to surpass already impressive 2015 and 2016 performances, as
strong job and income gains, along with ultra-low interest rates, have kept retail
sales growth at an annual clip of around 6 per cent since 2014. As a result,

output growth in wholesale and retail trade is poised to hit an 11-year high of
5.6per cent this year, on the heels of an average annual increase of 5.0per
cent over 201516. But with interest rates creeping up and job and income gains
cooling, retail sales growth is expected to slow sharply to 2.2per cent in 2018,
translating into output growth of 2.0per cent in wholesale and retail trade.
Similarly, transportation and warehousing output is projected to boast growth

above 5per cent this year, following growth near 7per cent in 2016. Although
activity is cooling in both manufacturing and construction, two industries that
use transportation services to conduct their business, this is being more than
offset by vibrant tourism activity. In fact, all the fundamentals are in place for
strong tourism growth, including a strong domestic economy, a weak Canadian
dollar, a healthy U.S. consumer, and rising interest from overseas visitors.
Indeed, the Conference Boards latest projections see total tourism spending
in B.C. rising by close to 9per cent this year, following a double-digit increase
last year. This is good news for Victoria, since it is one of the provinces prime
tourist destinations. Tourism activity is expected to remain healthy next year,
though growth should slow somewhat in line with a cooling domestic economy
and slightly stronger loonie. This, combined with a relatively stable outlook for
both manufacturing and construction, means the transportation and warehousing
industry should anticipate slower but still solid output growth of 3.3per cent
in 2018. A similar outlook is in the cards for personal services, which includes
tourist-oriented industries like accommodation and food as well as arts,
entertainment, and recreation. Personal services output growth is expected
todecelerate from 2.6per cent this year to 2.1per cent next year.
Although still relatively small, Victorias high-tech sector continues to grow

instature. According to Statistics Canadas latest estimates, 8,200 people
were employed in information and communications technology (ICT) in the
second quarter of 2017. This represents about 4per cent of Victorias employed
workforce, a dramatic increase from its 1.3per cent share in 1987. In addition,
a2016 Colliers report found that tech companies occupied 17per cent of all
office space in Victoria. The rise of the high-tech sector helps explain our
positive outlook for the business services sector, which includes computer
systems design services and engineering. We anticipate that business services
output will rise by a robust 3.6per cent this year and by an additional 2.0per
cent in 2018.

Construction Activity Moderating in Line With Falling

Housing Starts
Everything came together for Victorias construction industry last yearhousing
starts increased by nearly 50per cent and activity in both public and private
non-residential investment was robust. As a result, total construction output
growth surged 7.3per cent in 2016. Unfortunately, a repeat performance is not
inthe cards over the near term, as consecutive annual declines in housing starts
are expected to limit output growth in the construction sector to 2.3per cent in
2017 and 1.9per cent in 2018.
Last year was a banner year for new home construction, as housing starts rose
to a 27-year high of 2,900 units. While both single-detached and multiple-unit
starts contributed to the gain, the increase in the multiples market was the more
impressive of the two, as starts of multi-family dwellings reached the 2,000unit
mark for the first time since 1977. Although housing starts are on track to
decrease in 2017, the 2,700 units projected this year would be the second
highest level in 11 years. The chief reason activity remains strong is that the
inventory of completed and unabsorbed units has fallen to stunningly low levels,
coming in at a paltry 39 units in August 2017. Despite low inventories, a slowing
economy and rising interest rates should be enough to convince builders to
reduce housing starts further next year to a still solid 2,400 units.
Work has also been busy on the non-residential side, and this trend should
continue over the near term. Government investment spending has been
particularly strong as of late. Key projects include BCHydros new post-disaster
operations centre in Royal Oak, slated for completion in the fall, and the
Johnson Street Bridge replacement project, scheduled to open in spring 2018.
That said, private non-residential investment projects are also contributing to
growth. Twoexamples include a $60-million renovation of the Fairmont Empress
Hotel, which wrapped up in mid-2017, and a $72-million, 100,000-square-foot
expansion of the Mayfair shopping mall, slated to be completed next fall.

VICTORIA
Chart 1 Chart 2
2017 201821 2017 201821

Total 3.8 1.0 Total 2.4 1.9
50 25 0 25 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3
VICTORIA
Table 1 Table 2
(000s)
Employees
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Class* Industry (000s)
2.6 1.8 3.3 3.8 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.9
Goods sector 21.5 22.6 21.9 25.5 23.2 23.6 23.8 23.7
9120 Provincial government 12.3
2.1 4.8 2.9 16.3 9.0 2.0 0.8 0.4
Manufacturing 7.1 6.7 6.7 7.3 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1
Construction 12.1 14.1 13.3 15.9 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.9 611217 Post-secondary education 8.5
7.6 16.4 6.0 19.7 8.5 2.0 0.8 0.5 5511, 561112, Other management and 8.4
Primary and utilities 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 561517, 5619, administrative services
562129
7.7 25.7 10.9 17.4 23.4 5.1 0.9 0.1
6220 Hospitals 7.9
Services sector 153.5 155.6 162.2 165.7 168.4 170.1 173.0 175.0
3.2 1.3 4.2 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.1 5415 Computer systems design services 6.7
Transportation and warehousing 7.6 8.3 7.5 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.4 6111 Primary and secondary schools 5.5
23.6 9.8 10.5 8.1 4.8 1.9 1.2 0.3
1.8 45.8 12.0 41.6 24.6 3.8 1.3 1.3
10.6 2.8 5.4 9.1 0.7 3.1 0.6 0.1
Chart 3
4.5 3.4 12.2 14.9 11.4 6.6 0.3 0.3
12.0 2.7 28.5 6.1 4.3 1.1 1.4 0.9
Personal services 29.4 28.5 27.7 29.5 29.7 30.3 30.8 31.1 Victoria 318
3.3 2.8 3.0 6.6 0.7 2.2 1.6 0.8
Canada 100
3.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 3.0 3.7 3.4 2.6 0 100 200 300 400
1.9 3.8 15.0 3.4 0.5 1.8 1.6 1.4
No link to

VICTORIA
Table 3 Table 4
Building permits
($ 000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 837,907 794,130 764,746 640,786 647,952 576,720 666,032 785,789 1,024,364 New housing market (2016)
Residential 556,290 394,679 490,360 419,619 443,020 358,692 448,538 595,543 750,940 Single-detached absorptions 736
Growth 23.7%
Non-residential 281,617 399,451 274,386 221,167 204,932 218,028 217,494 190,246 273,424
Industrial 17,665 19,596 13,846 15,138 12,704 13,911 11,883 13,948 43,050
Growth 12.1%
Commercial 179,880 204,670 177,766 165,342 171,343 97,279 110,191 119,745 146,530
Public admin. 84,072 175,185 82,774 40,687 20,885 106,838 95,420 56,553 83,844
Growth 27.5%
Office sector*
(000s)
Employment (000s) 60 56 58 58 56 55 52 52 59
Association.
Bankruptcies
Consumer 705 926 892 746 674 662 595 546 417
Business 43 26 23 22 11 21 18 10 9
Chart 5

($ 000s) Victoria
0.69
Canada 46.2
British Columbia 46.8
Victoria 49.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

VICTORIA
Chart 6 Table 5
Forecast
Sector Victoria British Columbia Canada
6,000
5,000
4,000 Office 0.32 0.25 0.25
2,000
1,000 Wholesale and retail trade 0.14 0.16 0.15
0 Personal services 0.15 0.14 0.13
2014 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
Total 1.00 1.00 1.00

f = forecast
Chart 7 Chart 8
(2011 = 1.0) (2011 = 1.0)
Victoria Canada Victoria Canada

Forecast Forecast
2.0 1.2
1.1
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.5 0.8
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17f 18f 19f 20f 21f
APPENDIX A
Cross-City Comparison
Real GDP Growth

(per cent)
2016 2017 201821

Vancouver 4.1 Calgary 4.6 Toronto 2.5
Toronto 3.3 Edmonton 3.9 Calgary 2.4
Winnipeg 3.2 Toronto 3.7 Edmonton 2.3
Victoria 2.8 Winnipeg 3.6 Vancouver 2.3
Hamilton 2.3 Saskatoon 3.6 Saskatoon 2.2
OttawaGatineau 1.9 Montral 3.2 Regina 2.2
Montral 1.8 Vancouver 3.2 Halifax 2.1
Halifax 1.5 Regina 2.9 OttawaGatineau 2.1
Qubec City 1.5 Hamilton 2.9 Victoria 1.9
Regina 0.0 Qubec City 2.9 Hamilton 1.9
Saskatoon -0.8 OttawaGatineau 2.5 Montral 1.8
Calgary -3.2 Victoria 2.4 Qubec City 1.8
Edmonton -3.4 Halifax 1.4 Winnipeg 1.4


Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
APPENDIX B
Users Guide
CMAs
The census metropolitan areas (CMAs) are composed (defined by Statistics
Canada) of the main city and the surrounding municipalities, towns, townships,
villages, and parishes.
Real GDP Growth and Ranking

The table displays four GDP growth rates: the last historical year, the current
forecast year, the rest of the forecast period, and finally, a 10-year period
comprising both historical and forecast data. Below each growth rate is a
ranking that shows how the CMA fares against the other census metropolitan
areas featured in the current edition of the Metropolitan Outlook.
Credit Quality
The credit rating is a current opinion (e.g., DBRS or Standard & Poors) of
the citys overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its financial
obligations. The rating applies to one of the individual cities within the CMA.

Table 1
Debt Rating Service Scales
DBRS
Highest credit quality AAA
Superior credit quality AA
Satisfactory credit quality A
Adequate credit quality BBB
Speculative credit quality BB
Highly speculative credit quality B
Very highly speculative credit quality CCC
Standard & Poors
Highest quality AAA
Very good quality AA
Good quality A
Medium quality BBB
Lower medium quality BB
Poor quality B
Speculative quality C
Default D
Rating suspended Suspended
Homeownership
This ratio compares the average price of a home in the CMA to the average for
Canada as a whole.
Rental
This ratio compares the average monthly rent of an apartment in the CMA to the
average for Canada as a whole.

Current State
An arrow up (down) indicates a favourable (unfavourable) element/event that
has occurred within the census metropolitan area or that will certainly occur in
the near future. It can also indicate a positive (negative) economic climate within
the CMA.
Forecast Risk
To gauge the likelihood of the economic forecast unfolding, we indicate
whether there is an upside or downside risk. As indicated by the arrow, the
overall forecast is conditional on key assumptions that may boost or dampen
the outlook.
Economic Indicators
Industrial Classification
Statistics Canada compiles data on gross domestic product and employment
following the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). Within
this system, two aggregate sectors existgoods and serviceseach of which is
subdivided into industrial sectors based on major type of production activity. The
goods-producing sector includes the manufacturing, construction, and primary
and utilities industries, whereas the services sector aggregates transportation
and warehousing; information and cultural industries; wholesale and retail trade;
finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; personal services; non-
commercial services; and public administration.
Real GDP at Basic Prices

Gross domestic product at the CMA level is calculated using a weighted share
of employment in both the CMA and the province and in provincial GDP. Hence,
we are making the hypothesis that productivity is constant within an industry
in different parts of a province. Total GDP is estimated by summing all the
industrial GDP values. Values are posted in units of 2007 millions of dollars;
hence, inflation effects are eliminated.

Total Employment
Total employment is the sum of employment in all industries. Data are presented
in units of thousands, and an annual percentage growth value is also provided.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed workers to the
total labour force.
Personal Income Per Capita

Personal income per capita is the sum of all revenues (wages, dividends, self-
employment, etc.) received in a year, divided by total population. Data are in
dollars and not corrected for inflation (current dollars).
Population
The population data include inhabitants of all municipalities that make up
the CMA.
Total Housing Starts

Total housing starts represent the sum of multiple and single housing
construction starts. Multiple housing includes any type of building that can lodge
more than one household. Examples: apartment complex, condominium, duplex,
and triplex.
Retail Sales
Retail sales are quoted in units of millions of dollars and are not adjusted for
inflation (current dollars).
Consumer Price Index (CPI)

This index measures the cost of living for a typical urban family. It is composed
of several goods priced after taxes. A benchmark year (2002, for example) is
given the value 1.0. A value of 1.11 in 2009 is then interpreted as growth of
11per cent in the CPI between 2002 and 2009. Annual percentage growth rates
are posted in italics below the CPI values.

Employment Outlook and GDP Outlook

Employment growth percentages for six specific sectors are shown for the
current year and for an average yearly value over the next four years. The office
sector is defined by these industries: information and cultural services; finance,
insurance, and real estate; business services; and public administration. The
industrial sector includes the manufacturing, construction, and primary and
utilities industries.
Sectoral Employment
The most important industries for employment are listed, based on NAICS
data. Industrial disaggregation is done at the four-digit level. The number of
employees is quoted in units of thousands.
Dominant Industries
Using the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), this table
presents the most important industries for the CMA, ranked by employment.
Industrial disaggregation is done at the four-digit level. The number of
employees is quoted in units of thousands.
Fluctuations
Fluctuation linked to Canada is an indication of the degree of correlation
between changes in employment in the CMA and changes in employment in
Canada between 1987 and the current year.
Fluctuation not linked to Canada is an indication of the degree of correlation

between changes in employment in the CMA and changes in factors other than
employment changes in Canada.

Compared to Canada
This bar chart represents the ratio of the standard deviation of total employment
growth in the CMA to the standard deviation of total employment growth in
Canada. The interpretation of this ratio is that the higher the number on the bar
chart, the more volatile the labour market in the CMA relative to Canada.
Construction, Commercial Real Estate,

and Income Overview
Building Permits
Historical data are in units of thousands for the number of building permits
issued and are presented on a disaggregated level. Total building permits can
be split into two main categories: residential and non-residential. Furthermore,
the non-residential sector is divided into three sub-components: industrial;
commercial and public administration; and non-commercial.
Office Sector
The total CMA office sector is quoted in units of thousands of square feet. This
value evolves over time, and an annual growth percentage value is listed. The
vacancy rate measures the amount of physically vacant space as a percentage
of total inventory. Employment in thousands of units for the office sector is also
quoted. The office sector is defined by these industries: information and cultural
services; finance, insurance, and real estate; business services; and public
administration.
Bankruptcies
Business and consumer bankruptcy figures are available from Industry Canada.
Personal Income Per Capita

Personal income per capita is presented at the CMA, provincial and national
levels. The information is presented in thousands of current (nominal) dollars.

Real Estate
Depending on the availability of data, real estate information may include:
Downtown Office Market

The vacancy rate is the percentage of units available to lease in the CMAs
downtown core. The average lease rate is quoted per square foot in a downtown
Class A location.
Suburban Office Market

The vacancy rate is the percentage of units available to lease in the CMAs
suburban areas. The average lease rate is quoted per square foot in a suburban
Class A location.
Retail MarketShopping Centre

The retail market consists of shopping centres, department stores,
supermarkets, convenience stores, and power centres. The average lease rate is
quoted per square foot in a prime street-front location.
Industrial Market
The industrial market consists of building units or assets devoted to production.
The vacancy rate is the percentage of units available to lease, while the overall
availability rate is the percentage of units available for sale. Average net rents or
land values are quoted for the CMAs most active land markets.
New Housing Market

Absorptions refer to the number of newly completed housing units that are sold
or rented. Growth in absorptions or prices refers to the percentage change from
the previous year.
Resale Housing Market

Unit sales are the number of existing homes sold on the multiple listings service
(MLS). Growth in sales or prices refers to the percentage change from the
previous year.

Apartment Market
The apartment market consists of building units devoted to residential dwellings.
Average rents are quoted for a two-bedroom apartment.
Economic Structure
Canada is set as the benchmark for economic diversity. It is proposed that
the Canadian economy is well diversified; hence, a comparison can be made
between the CMAs and the Canadian economy. The value 1 is given to a
metropolitan area that has the same industrial structure as Canada. A value of 0
means that the CMA has a totally different economic structure and thus implicitly
lacks diversity.
Sources of Migration
Statistics Canada collects data for three types of population migration patterns:
intercity, interprovincial, and international. Intercity migration is defined as the
flow of population moving out of or into the metropolitan area to or from other
cities in the province. Interprovincial migration represents population movements
between the metropolitan area and other Canadian provinces, excluding the
province in which the metropolitan area lies. International migration is the
population movement between other countries and the metropolitan area. The
graph plots the net values for the three demographic variables. The values can
be read by matching the borderline of the bar to the left scale.
Housing Starts
The graph demonstrates the growth in housing starts over a period of time. The
base year (for example, 2005) is given the value 1.0. Hence, the following yearly
data represent the growth value in comparison with 2005. For example, the
value 1.2 means that housing starts have increased by 20 per cent since 2005.
Two lines are shown in the graph, one for the metropolitan area and one for
Canada.

Comparative Employment
Employment is disaggregated into six sectors: industrial; office; transportation
and warehousing; wholesale and retail trade; personal services; and non-
commercial services. This table shows the share of each employment
component relative to the total.
Using a base year (2005, for example) as a benchmark, this graph plots total
employment growth against time. The shaded area of the graph represents
the forecast horizon, and the forecast years are marked by the letter f. The
value 1.0 is given to the base year, and each subsequent year is used as a
comparison; hence, the growth is clearly schemed. For analytical purposes,
employment in perspective is shown with metropolitan and Canadian data.

APPENDIX C
Glossary of
EconomicTerms
Gross domestic product (GDP): A measure of the overall economic activity

(value of goods and services produced) within an economy.
GDP at market prices: Represents the value of GDP as paid by final

consumers; excludes subsidies but includes indirect taxes.
GDP at basic prices: Equivalent to GDP at market prices plus subsidies

(product related) and minus indirect taxes (property and payroll but not sales
taxes). It measures the value of producers output. GDP at basic prices replaced
GDP at factor cost, which was discontinued in January2002.
Real versus nominal dollars: Real dollar economic measures such

as GDP adjust for price changes and measure activity in a base year (e.g.,
2007$). Year-to-year changes in real or constant dollars reflect changes in
quantities produced. Nominal dollar measures reflect quantities produced in
prevailing prices (e.g., $ 000s). Year-to-year changes in nominal or current
dollars reflect changes in both quantity and market prices.
Inflation: A sustained rise in the average level of all prices. The consumer
price index is one measure of inflation and is used as a proxy for inflation at
the urban level.
Labour force: The total number of persons employed in both civilian and
military jobs, plus the number of persons who are unemployed.
Participation rate: The total labour force expressed as a percentage of the

population aged 15 years and over.

Appendix D | The Conference Board of Canada
APPENDIX D
Canadian Census
Metropolitan Areas
Name Type Name Type
St. Johns Dorchester Village
Conception Bay South Town Elgin Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Portugal Cove-St. Philips Town Saint-Paul Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Pouch Cove Town Dorchester Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Flatrock Town Fort Folly 1 Indian Reserve
Torbay Town Saint John
Logy Bay-Middle Cover-Outer Cove Town Saint Martins Parish
Bauline Town St. Martins Village
Paradise Town Simonds Parish
St. Johns City Saint John City
Mount Pearl City Musquash Parish
Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove Town Lepreau Parish
Bay Bulls Town Petersville Parish
Witless Bay Town Upham Parish
Halifax Hampton Parish
Cole Harbour 30 Indian Reserve Hampton Town
Shubenacadie 13 Indian Reserve Rothesay Parish
Halifax Regional Municipality Westfield Parish
Sheet Harbour Regional Municipality Kingston Parish
Moncton Grand BayWestfield Town
Moncton City Greenwich Parish
Dieppe City Rothesay Town
Riverview Town Quispamsis Town
Moncton Paroisse (Municipalit de) Saguenay
Memramcook Village Saint-Fulgence Municipalit
Coverdale Paroisse (Municipalit de) La Baie Ville
Salisbury Village Laterrire Ville
Hillsborough Paroisse (Municipalit de) Chicoutimi Ville
Hillsborough Village Tremblay Canton (Municipalit de)
Note: The 2001 census metropolitan areas reflect the agglomeration of several individual municipalities into one jurisdiction. For example, Halifax CMA now
encompasses Halifax Regional Municipality, Cole Harbour, Shubenacadie, and Sheet Harbour. The Halifax Regional Municipality includes Bedford, Dartmouth,
and Halifax, which were listed separately in the 1996 definition of the Halifax CMA. In 2001, Statistics Canada increased the number of CMAs to 27. Abbotsford and
Kingston were added.

Name Type Name Type

Saint-Honor Municipalit Cap-Rouge Ville
Shipshaw Municipalit Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures Municipalit
Jonquire Ville Wendake Indian Reserve
Lac-Knogami Municipalit Pintendre Municipalit
Larouche Municipalit Saint-Joseph-de-la-Pointe-de-Lvy Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Qubec Lvis Ville
Beaumont Municipalit Saint-Lambert-de-Lauzon Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Saint-Franois Paroisse (Municipalit de) Saint-tienne-de-Lauzon Municipalit
Sainte-Famille Paroisse (Municipalit de) Sainte-Hlne-de-Breakeyville Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Saint-Jean Paroisse (Municipalit de) Saint-Jean-Chrysostome Ville
Saint-Laurent-de-lle-dOrlans Municipalit Saint-Romuald Ville
Saint-Pierre-de-lle-dOrlans Municipalit Charny Ville
Sainte-Ptronille Village Saint-Rdempteur Ville
Chteau-Richer Ville Saint-Nicolas Ville
LAnge-Gardien Paroisse (Municipalit de) Sherbrooke
Boischatel Municipalit Ascot Corner Municipalit
Sainte-Catherine-de-la- Ville Stoke Municipalit

Jacques-Cartier
Saint-Denis-de-Brompton Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Fossambault-sur-le-Lac Ville
Waterville Ville
Lac-Saint-Joseph Ville
Lennoxville Ville
Shannon Municipalit
Ascot Municipalit
Saint-Gabriel-de-Valcartier Municipalit
Fleurimont Ville
Lac-Delage Ville
Bromptonville Ville
Stoneham-et-Tewkesbury Cantons unis (Municipalit de)
Sherbrooke Ville
Lac-Beauport Municipalit
Rock Forest Ville
Sainte-Brigitte-de-Laval Municipalit
Deauville Municipalit
Beauport Ville
Saint-lie-dOrford Municipalit
Vanier Ville
Compton Municipalit
Notre-Dame-des-Anges Paroisse (Municipalit de)
North Hatley Village
Sillery Ville
Hatley Canton (Municipalit de)
Qubec Ville
Trois-Rivires
Charlesbourg Ville
Champlain Municipalit
Saint-mile Ville
Saint-Maurice Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Lac-Saint-Charles Ville
Sainte-Marthe-du-Cap Ville
Loretteville Ville
Cap-de-la-Madeleine Ville
Val-Blair Ville
Saint-Louis-de-France Ville
LAncienne-Lorette Ville
Trois-Rivires Ville
Sainte-Foy Ville

Name Type Name Type

Trois-Rivires-Ouest Ville Montral-Est Ville
Pointe-du-Lac Municipalit Anjou Ville
Bcancour Ville Saint-Lonard Ville
Wlinak 11 Indian Reserve Montral-Nord Ville
Lavaltrie Village Montral Ville
Saint-Antoine-de-Lavaltrie Paroisse (Municipalit de) Westmount Ville
Richelieu Ville Verdun Ville
Saint-Mathias-sur-Richelieu Municipalit LaSalle Ville
Chambly Ville Montral-Ouest Ville
Carignan Ville Cte-Saint-Luc City
Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville Ville Lachine Ville
Saint-Basile-le-Grand Ville Hampstead Ville
McMasterville Municipalit Outremont Ville
Otterburn Park Ville Mont-Royal Ville
Mont-Saint-Hilaire Ville Saint-Laurent Ville
Beloeil Ville Dorval City
Saint-Mathieu-de-Beloeil Municipalit Lle-Dorval Ville
Brossard Ville Pointe-Claire Ville
Saint-Lambert Ville Kirkland Ville
Greenfield Park Ville Beaconsfield Ville
Saint-Hubert Ville Baie-dUrf Ville
LeMoyne Ville Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue Ville
Longueuil Ville Senneville Village
Boucherville Ville Pierrefonds Ville
Sainte-Julie Ville Sainte-Genevive Ville
Saint-Amable Municipalit Dollard-des-Ormeaux Ville
Varennes Ville Roxboro Ville
Charlemagne Ville Lle-Bizard Ville
Le Gardeur Ville Saint-Mathieu Municipalit
Repentigny Ville Saint-Philippe Municipalit
Saint-Sulpice Paroisse (Municipalit de) La Prairie Ville
LAssomption Ville Candiac Ville
Lachenaie Ville Delson Ville
Terrebonne Ville Sainte-Catherine Ville
Mascouche Ville Saint-Constant Ville
La Plaine Ville Saint-Isidore Paroisse (Municipalit de)
Laval Ville Mercier Ville

Name Type Name Type

Chteauguay Ville Lafontaine Ville
Lry Ville Gore Canton (Municipalit de)
Kahnawake 14 Indian Reserve OttawaGatineau
Maple Grove Ville Buckingham Ville
Beauharnois Ville Masson-Angers Ville
Melocheville Village Gatineau Ville
Les Cdres Municipalit Hull Ville
Pointe-des-Cascades Village Aylmer Ville
Lle-Perrot Ville Val-des-Monts Municipalit
Notre-Dame-de-lle-Perrot Municipalit Cantley Municipalit
Pincourt Ville Chelsea Municipalit
Terrasse-Vaudreuil Municipalit Pontiac Municipalit
Vaudreuil-Dorion Ville La Pche Municipalit
Vaudreuil-sur-le-Lac Village Clarence-Rockland City
Lle-Cadieux Ville Russell Township
Hudson Ville Ottawa City
Saint-Lazare Paroisse (Municipalit de) Kingston
Saint-Eustache Ville Frontenac Islands Township
Deux-Montagnes Ville Kingston City
Sainte-Marthe-sur-le-Lac Ville South Frontenac Township
Pointe-Calumet Municipalit Loyalist Township
Saint-Joseph-du-Lac Municipalit Oshawa
Oka Municipalit Whitby Town
Saint-Placide Municipalit Oshawa City
Kanesatake Indian Reserve Clarington Town
Boisbriand Ville Toronto
Sainte-Thrse Ville Pickering City
Blainville Ville Ajax Town
Rosemre Ville Uxbridge Township
Lorraine Ville Vaughan City
Bois-des-Filion Ville Markham Town
Sainte-Anne-des-Plaines Ville Richmond Hill Town
Mirabel Ville Whitchurch-Stouffville Town
Saint-Colomban Paroisse (Municipalit de) Aurora Town
Bellefeuille Ville Newmarket Town
Saint-Jrme Ville King Township
Saint-Antoine Ville East Gwillimbury Town

Name Type Name Type

Georgina Town Southwold Township
Chippewas of Georgina Island Indian Reserve Strathroy-Caradoc Township

First Nation
Thames Centre Township
Toronto City
Middlesex Centre Township
Mississauga City
London City
Brampton City
Windsor
Caledon Town
Amherstburg Town
Mono Town
LaSalle Town
Orangeville Town
Windsor City
Oakville Town
Tecumseh Town
Milton Town
Lakeshore Town
Halton Hills Town
Greater Sudbury
New Tecumseth Town
Whitefish Lake 6 Indian Reserve
Bradford West Gwillimbury Town
Greater Sudbury City
Hamilton
Wahnapitei 11 Indian Reserve
Burlington City
Thunder Bay
Hamilton City
Neebing Township
Grimsby Town
Fort William 52 Indian Reserve
St. CatharinesNiagara
Thunder Bay City
Fort Erie Town
Oliver Paipoonge Township
Port Colborne City
Gillies Township
Wainfleet Township
OConnor Township
Pelham Town
Conmee Township
Welland City
Shuniah Township
Thorold City
Winnipeg
Niagara Falls City
Tach Rural Municipality
Niagara-on-the-Lake Town
Ritchot Rural Municipality
St. Catharines City
St. Franois Xavier Rural Municipality
Lincoln Town
Winnipeg City
Kitchener
Headingley Rural Municipality
North Dumfries Township
Springfield Rural Municipality
Cambridge City
East St. Paul Rural Municipality
Kitchener City
West St. Paul Rural Municipality
Waterloo City
St. Clements Rural Municipality
Woolwich Township
Brokenhead 4 Indian Reserve
London
Rosser Rural Municipality
Central Elgin Township
St. Thomas City

Name Type Name Type

Regina Colonsay Town
Pense No. 160 Rural Municipality White Cap 94 Indian Reserve
Belle Plaine Village Vanscoy No. 345 Rural Municipality
Pense Village Delisle Town
Sherwood No. 159 Rural Municipality Vanscoy Village
Regina City Asquith Town
Grand Coulee Village Calgary
Edenwold No. 158 Rural Municipality Rocky View No. 44 Municipal District
White City Town Calgary City
Pilot Butte Town Chestermere Town
Balgonie Town Cochrane Town
Edenwold Village Airdrie City
Lumsden No. 189 Rural Municipality Irricana Village
Disley Village Beiseker Village
Buena Vista Village Crossfield Town
Lumsden Town Tsuu Tina Nation 145 Indian Reserve
Lumsden Beach Resort Village Edmonton
Regina Beach Town Bruderheim Town
Saskatoon Leduc County County (Municipality)
Thode Resort Village Beaumont Town
Dundurn No. 314 Rural Municipality New Sarepta Village
Dundurn Town Leduc City
Shields Resort Village Devon Town
Corman Park No. 344 Rural Municipality Calmar Town
Saskatoon City Sundance Beach Summer Village
Langham Town Thorsby Village
Warman Town Itaska Beach Summer Village
Blucher No. 343 Rural Municipality Golden Days Summer Village
Martensville Town Warburg Village
Bradwell Village Parkland County County (Municipality)
Allan Town Seba Beach Summer Village
Dalmeny Town Betula Beach Summer Village
Elstow Village Point Alison Summer Village
Osler Town Lakeview Summer Village
Colonsay No. 342 Rural Municipality Kapasiwin Summer Village
Clavet Village Wabamun Village
Meacham Village Autumn Lake Village

Name Type Name Type

Stony Plain Town North Vancouver District Municipality
Spruce Grove City North Vancouver City
Strathcona County Specialized Municipality West Vancouver District Municipality
Fort Saskatchewan City Bowen Island Island Municipality
Sturgeon County Municipal District Lions Bay Village
Edmonton City Pitt Meadows District Municipality
St. Albert City Maple Ridge District Municipality
Gibbons Town Semiahmoo Indian Reserve
Redwater Town Tsawwassen Indian Reserve
Bon Accord Town Musqueam 2 Indian Reserve
Morinville Town Coquitlam 2 Indian Reserve
Legal Town Coquitlam 1 Indian Reserve
Stony Plain 135 Indian Reserve Burrard Inlet 3 Indian Reserve
Alexander 134 Indian Reserve Mission 1 Indian Reserve
Wabamun 133A Indian Reserve Capilano 5 Indian Reserve
Abbotsford Barnston Island 3 Indian Reserve
Abbotsford City Musqueam 4 Indian Reserve
Mission District Municipality Seymour Creek 2 Indian Reserve
Fraser Valley H RDA Regional District Electoral Area Katzie 2 Indian Reserve
Upper Sumas 6 Indian Reserve McMillan Island 6 Indian Reserve
Matsqui Main 2 Indian Reserve Matsqui 4 Indian Reserve
Vancouver Katzie 1 Indian Reserve
Langley District Municipality Langley 5 Indian Reserve
Langley City Whonnock 1 Indian Reserve
Surrey City Victoria
White Rock City North Saanich District Municipality
Delta District Municipality Sidney Town
Richmond City Central Saanich District Municipality
Greater Vancouver A Regional District Electoral Area Saanich District Municipality
Vancouver City Oak Bay District Municipality
Burnaby City Victoria City
New Westminster City Esquimalt District Municipality
Coquitlam City Colwood City
Belcarra Village Metchosin District Municipality
Anmore Village Langford District Municipality
Port Coquitlam City View Royal Town
Port Moody City Highlands District Municipality

Name Type
Sooke District Municipality
Capital H Regional District Electoral Area
Cole Bay 3 Indian Reserve
Union Bay 4 Indian Reserve
East Saanich 2 Indian Reserve
South Saanich 1 Indian Reserve
Becher Bay 1 Indian Reserve
Esquimalt Indian Reserve
New Songhees 1A Indian Reserve
TSou-ke 1 Indian Reserve
TSou-ke 2 Indian Reserve

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Conference Board of Canada Report

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METROPOLITAN OUTLOOK 1.

Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian Metropolitan Economies

OUTLOOK AUTUMN 2017

Book 1 covers 13 census metropolitan areas: Halifax, Qubec City, Montral,

Book 2 deals with 15 census metropolitan areas: St. Johns, Moncton,

These publications are available at www.conferenceboard.ca/products/reports/

2017 The Conference Board of Canada*

170 British Columbia

Real GDP in Canada is expected to increase by a solid 2.6 per cent

The economy is expected to generate about 260,000 jobs this year,

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca.

Real GDP Growth Current State

1.5 2.6 1.8 1.9

Shaded area represents forecast data.

Source: Standard & Poors.

Shaded area represents forecast data.

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. ii

Canadian Economy Shifts Into High

Households Keep Spending

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. iii

Business Investment and Trade Sector Remain

Government Investment Spending to Remain Strong

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. iv

Bank of Canada Moves to Tightening Cycle

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. v

On sattend ce que lconomie gnre quelque 260000emplois cette

Les mises en chantier sont en voie de dpasser 200000units pour

Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca.

Croissance du PIB rel Situation actuelle

Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr.

Les prvisions sont indiques en ombr.

Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. vii

Lconomie canadienne passe

Les mnages continuent de dpenser

Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. viii

Le flchissement des prix des maisons freinera aussi les dpenses de

Les investissements des entreprises et le secteur

Le secteur du commerce extrieur a galement fait mauvaise figure.Endehors

Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. ix

progresser en 2018 grce une croissance conomique mondiale revigore,

Linvestissement publique demeurera vigoureux

La Banque du Canada entame un cycle

Consultez les recherches du Conference Board www.e-library.ca. x

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca.

Real GDP Growth Current State

Shaded area represents forecast data.

Source: Standard & Poors.

Shaded area represents forecast data.

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 2

Much of the Construction Sector Losing Steam

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 3

Still, real investment by governments is expected to increase by 7.6per cent in

Non-commercial services 0.2

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

Small Gains in Employment

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 4

Nova Scotia Canada

Household consumption will reflect employment patterns. Real household

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 5

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca.

Real GDP Growth and Ranking Current State

Shaded area represents forecast data.

Credit Quality A+ retailtrade.