Nepal Climate Change and Security Factsheet

By Christian Webersik and Manish Thapa1

Climate change and security in Nepal: The context Key issues related to climate change and human
security in Nepal
Why is Nepal vulnerable to climate change? Nepal
is largely dependent on climate-sensitive sectors, Increase of flashfloods
such as rain-fed agriculture; its ecosystem is fragile Flashfloods affect thousands of people every year
and the dramatic topography makes the country in the Himalayan region. Intense rainfall is the main
prone to flooding.2 The country’s institutions are cause of flashfloods, although other types of floods
weakened and fragile after years of civil turmoil with such as those caused by rapid snowmelt do also
remaining pockets of insecurity thus undermining occur. As climate models project an increase in
efforts to adapt to climate change. Adaptation to monsoon precipitation, an increase in flashfloods is
climate change is costly, and financial resources likely. In a similar fashion, the increase in frequency
are desperately needed to rebuild the country, and intensity of precipitation is also a possible trigger
reintegrate ex-combatants and to pay salaries to for flashfloods.4
civil servants.
Glacier lakes outbursts
Significant political change marked the past years:
A lot of attention has focused on glacier lakes
In a historic moment in April 2006, the monarchy
outbursts. As glaciers are retreating, they release
was abolished. The Maoist insurgency that started
water that remains trapped behind now exposed
in 1996 came to an end after a 9-year civil war that
moraines. Moraines that act as dams can break
left thousands of people dead. The government
resulting in a glacier lake outburst and subsequent
and the Maoist signed a Comprehensive Peace
flooding with catastrophic consequences for lower-
Accord in November 2006.3 A federal republic was
lying populations. Although relatively rare events,
established creating a constitutional assembly. The
in 1984, a glacier lake outburst in the Langmoche
interim parliament with a Maoist majority elected a
valley in Khumbu region washed away bridges,
president in July 2008.
agricultural land, homes, people and it was felt
Figure 1: Tonnes of CO2 emissions per capita more than 90 km downstream. It also damaged a
nearly completed hydropower project.5
25

20
19.84 18.99 Figure 2: Annual mean maximum temperature
trends, 1977-1994
Tonnes of CO2

15
10.5 10.32
9.2 8.9
10

5 2.42
0.98 0.14
0
a

UK
A

lia

n
y

na

al
si

di
an

pa
US

p
tra

In
Ch

Ne
Ru

Ja
s

er
Au

Source: Adapted from International Energy Agency (2003)

While Nepal’s per capita green house gas emissions

are negligible, the country is most affected by the
negative consequences of climate change, such
0
C per year
as flashfloods and droughts, glacier lakes outbursts
or rising average maximum temperatures with a
subsequent retreat of glaciers, and least able to Source: WWF 2005 Glaciers, glacier retreat, and its subsequent impacts in
Nepal, India and China. Kathmandu: WWF Nepal Program, Page 15.
adapt to a changing environment (see Figure 1).

Climate Change Facts Sheets Series: 2008/1

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 Nepal Climate Change and Security Factsheet
By Christian Webersik and Manish Thapa1
Temperature changes in the higher altitudes
Experts and local communities have already
observed changes in temperature averages (see
Figure 2). According to the International Centre
for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),
warming in Nepal is on average at 0.6 degree
centigrade per decade, higher than the global
average.6 Most importantly, the warming in the
Himalayas was far greater at higher elevations. As
one expert notes: “The mid-hills area used to be the
main habitat of people and the impact of climate
change is not very visible” but “those closer to the
higher mountains seem to have greater awareness
in terms of less snow coverage. The Sherpas are
worried that there is no snow in the winter, so will
[they] get water?”7
Changes in runoff of major streams affecting down-
stream populations
Changes in the length and intensity of precipitation
not only impacts on snow cover but also affect
down-stream populations. According to ICIMOD,
about 1.3 billion people live in river basins originating
in the Himalayan region. For instance, about 178
million people live in the Ganges river basin that is
likely to experience an up to 45 percent river flow
change in snow and glacier melt (see Table 1).
Table 1: Main rivers of the Himalayan region
  River River basin
Glacial
Mean
melt in
dis- Population
charge
river Area (km2)
x1000
flow
(m3/s)
With one of the highest population densities in the
region, the Ganges basin is largely populated with
poor communities. A decrease in river discharge
coupled with population growth and poverty will
expose more people who are largely agrarian to
water scarcity. It is in this context that changes in
the Himalayas are not isolated events: “Everybody
looks at the glacial lakes and melting glaciers,
but they are the tip of the iceberg, representing
a larger, dramatic change with consequences
downstream.”8
Policy responses to climate change induced
security threats
Although Nepal’s per capita emissions are low,
the country is engaged in making a contribution
towards a low-carbon society. One example is
Nepal’s successful community forest management
programme, which has led to additional carbon
sequestration, watershed protection and created
a buffer zone between protected areas and
communal agricultural land. The challenges ahead
are clear. The main immediate risks resulting from
climate change are flashfloods, glacier lakes
outbursts, changes in crop yields and type due to
changing temperatures, and in the long-term, we
can expect significant changes in downstream
water flows.
For more information, please see
www.ias.unu.edu/sdg or contact Claudia ten Have,
Water tenhave@ias.unu.edu.
availa-
Popu-
bility
lation
(m3/
Notes
density
person/


(%) 1
year) Dr. Christian Webersik is a Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Indus 5,533 44.80 1,081,718 178,483 165 978 / United Nations University Postdoctoral Fellow with the Sustainable
Development Governance Programme, United Nations University Institute
Ganges 18,691 9.10 1,016,124 407,466 401 1,447 of Advanced Studies (UNU-IAS) and the Tokyo Institute of Technology;
Brahma- Manish Thapa is the Executive Director of the Asian Study Center for
19,824 12.30 651,335 118,543 182 5,274
putra Political & Conflict Transformation (ASPECT) and currently a doctoral
Irrawaddy 13,565 Small 413,710 32,683 79 13,089 research student at the Department of International Studies, Tokyo
University.
Salween 1,494 8.80 271,914 5,982 22 7,876 2
CCNN 2007 Climate Change and its Impact in Nepal CCNN Newsletter
Mekong 11,048 6.60 805,604 57,198 71 6,091 Year 1, Page 2.
3
Yangtze 34,000 18.50 1,722,193 368,549 214 2,909 Thapa M 2008 Afro-Asian Conflicts, ed S Shekhawat and D A Mahapatra
(New Delhi: New Century Publications), Page 80.
Yellow 1,365 1.30 944,970 147,415 156 292 4
ICIMOD 2008 Flash Floods in the Himalayas.
Tarim 146 40.20 1,152,448 8,067 7 571 5
WWF 2005 Glaciers, glacier retreat, and its subsequent impacts in Nepal,
Total       1,324,386     India and China (Kathmandu: WWF Nepal Program), Page 25.
6
Source: Adapted from IUCN/ IWMI, Ramsar Convention and WRI, 2003; Mi Shrestha A B, Wake C P, Mayewski P A and Dibb J E 1999 Maximum
and Xie 2002; Chalise and Khanal 2001; Merz 2004 Note: The hydrological Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based
on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971-94 Journal of
data may differ depending on the location of the gauging stations. The
Climate 12 2775-87.
contribution of glacial melt is based on limited data and should be taken
7
as indicative only. Interview of Andreas Schild, Director General of ICIMOD, page
30, Mountain Forum 2008 Natural Resources: Women, Conflicts and
Management Mountain Forum Bulletin 8.
8
Interview of Andreas Schild, Director General of ICIMOD, page 30, Ibid.

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