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An Introduction to

February 2013
Contents

1. KPIs for Managing Brand Health

2. Foresight Household Panel

3. Panelytics the Panel Software

4. Household Panel Key Facts

5. Which tool is best designed to measure which KPI?


KPIs for Managing Brand Health
Holistic brand health management
Managing brand health 3 core set of KPI data
Foresight Household Panel
What is household panel?

Household panel is a permanent, syndicated &


representative sample of target-population to
regularly (continuously) observe & measure
Consumer Behaviour.

Panellists are trained to keep a record of every


item they purchase, hence for each item we
know what, where, when, how much and who
purchased.

So, it is a continuous monthly tracking of


household purchases, where the source of
information (respondent) is the housewife, i.e.
decision maker.
Advantage of the household panel
To identify

How categories\brands are developing


How have your marketing activities effected the brand performance
Whether launching a new variant could develop your consumer base
The underlying factors behind the growth or decline in your brand share
Your main objectives for the forth coming year(s): more buyers, more market share, more
spend per buyer?
The main drivers of your brand performance. How these compare competitively
The right mix of variants in your portfolio for your existing buyers and the category
How the category is purchased: Frequency; where are the gaps and the various development
opportunities
Whether the consumers you reach are in line with your target market
Where else and how you could get your brand promoted
Basic ingredients

We have recruited a representative sample of homes from the population of households in


the country

We visit these panellists monthly to record their monthly purchases in the selected categories.
We record all details: brand, size, variant/flavour, pack type, price, quantity purchased, place
of purchase, frequency of purchase, etc. We also record loose/ unbranded products

Our data collection method is bin plus an exit interview. We have placed a bin in all the
panel-households. Panellist are trained to keep the wrappers/ empty-packs of the used packs
in this bin

Finally, data from all panel households is statistically projected to estimate the overall markets
for the brands/ categories

Our Panellists demographically represent population of Pakistan. So the way they


behave reflects the way nation is behaving
What data is being recorded

What bought? Brand (or loose product) , variant/ flavor/ form, pack type

Where? Retailer (General store, self service store, Sunday market, etc.)

When? How many times during the month (frequency of purchase)

How much? Pack size, number of packs, price paid (quantity purchased)

By who? Demographic/regional profile


Household Panel authentic source of information

Foresight Household Panel is the only data source in


Pakistan which is 100% verified

Interviews are conducted face to face and data is


being punched into the mobile phones a data entry
application is developed using android application;
GPS location of the panellist is recorded while
interview is being conducted. This eliminates any
doubt of interview being conducted at other place
than the panellist home

Similarly, the device automatically records start time


& end time of each interview along with the data
Nationwide Coverage large sample size, plans to increase further

Foresight household panel covers almost 95% of Pakistan population. FATA, FANA,
tribal areas & military cantonment areas are out of scope.

Sind Baluchistan Punjab KPK

1308 urban 431 urban homes 3532 urban 768 urban homes
homes from 10 from 6 cities homes from 26 from 6 cities
cities cities

348 rural homes 200 rural homes 857 rural homes 306 rural homes
from 19 villages from 8 villages from 52 villages from 16 villages

7,750 homes
Overall 48 cities & 95
villages
6,039 homes
Urban 48 cities
1,711 homes
Rural 95 villages
Depth of coverage
While designing the panel representation of both smaller & gibber cities is
ensured

Population Population # of towns in


Sample size
Strata Range sample
1 > 5 Mn 2 1,224
2 0.5 - 5 Mn 8 1,468
Urban sample 3 100 - 500k 11 1,135
depth
4 50 - 100 k 10 961
5 25 - 50k 8 683
6 < 25k 9 568
Total 48 6,039

Similarly, rural sample is also well spread


Categories currently tracked in household panel

Household Care Personal Care Foods

1. Laundry soaps 9. Skin cleansing soaps 16. Tea


2. Washing powders 10. Shampoos 17. Coffee
3. Fabric blues 11. Hair conditioners 18. Make to Drink: Red syrups,
4. Fabric bleach 12. Skin creams & lotions squashes & Powder
5. Fabric conditioner 13. Tooth pastes beverages
6. Dish wash NSD bars 14. Face wash/ body wash 19. Ready to Drink: Juices &
7. Dish wash Scourer powders/ 15. Deodorants Nectars
pastes 20. Ice creams
8. Toilet cleaners 21. Desserts
22. Ketchup
23. Noodles, Spaghetti, Macaroni
24. Butter & margarine
25. Spreads & mayonnaise
26. Spices, recipe mixes, cooking
aids
27. Instant soup
28. Diary
29. Cooking oil & ghee
Existing clients of household panel

25 categories since 2009

1 category since 2010


1 category since 2012

1 category since 2011

1 category, started in 2013


Panelytics the panel software
Panelytics the panel software

Windows based desktop software,


database attached to the user PC

Easy to use, requires very minimum


training

Software is organized into 4 tabs, they


are:
1. Product: brand, SKU, size, etc.
2. Market: national, urban, SEC, province,
etc.
3. Fact: all KPIs of the household panel
4. Time: months, quarters, year, etc.

Additionally, there are 3 modules in the


software:
1. Standard facts,
2. Brand switching analysis, &
3. Consumer DNA analysis

All outputs of the Panelytics are directly


produced in MS Excel 2007
Household panel key facts
Household panel key facts
Usership (%)/ user households (000)

Exclusive/ Solus users and Conjunction users


Usership (%), volume market (tonnes), market (million rupees)
What else do they buy? Duplication with markets/ brands

Penetration 1+ month users (%)

Market size (volume & value) & share (%)

Consumption (& spend): per household/ category user/ brand user)


Consumption Index

SOR (share of requirement)/ loyalty & loyalty distribution

Source of gain/loss analysis

Frequency of purchase

Light/ Medium/ Heavy user analysis

Lapsed/ Retained/ New user analysis

Consumer DNA
Loyalty as defined in household panel
Definition

Household buys 10 packs of Category: 3 Blue, 2 Green, & 5 Purple

Loyalty = Quantity bought of Brand Quantity Bought of Category

Therefore Loyalty to each brand is;

= 30% = 20% = 50%

How much of my consumers category consumption is apportioned to my brand?


Am I THE preferred brand among my buyers?

Note of caution - Loyalty is not repeat I can repeat yet not loyal to the brand
Loyalty vs. relative penetration
This analysis helps in brand management strategy, to decide which brands to grow & which brands
to discontinue

+
Good Potential High Quality
Too much duplication High Brand Value
How to increase penetration
Rel. Penetration
or/and low repeat Leaders
Trial pack
New variants
Distribution
Promotion (sampling) Kill these if remain Niche brands
Advertising in this quadrant
Pricing

- Loyalty
+
How to increase loyalty / profitability
Product/ Differentiation (increase choices within brand)
Weight of purchase (pack size, promotions)
Customer satisfaction
Brand switching (Gain & Loss) analysis
Uses & applications

Where is my brands volume coming from / going to?

How much volume am I losing to my competitors?

Is my main competitor who I think it is?

Are the other brands in the market suffering in the same way, or a different way?

What is the underlying movement for the market?

Where has my new brands volume come from?


Brand switching (Gain & Loss) analysis
4 sources of volume change: Definitions

Volume loss because of HHs who have


stopped using the category, i.e. they
were users in P1 but didnt use any
brand (category) in P2

Volume loss because of HHs who have


stopped using the brand in P2, however
they are users of the category

Volume loss because of HHs who


continue to use the brand, however
their consumption of the brand had
declined in P2 vs. P1

Volume loss to other brands in the


category
Brand switching (Gain & Loss) analysis
A sample report

P1 = 429.1 tonnes,
P2 = 404.4 tonnes,
Loss Gains
= - 25 tonnes.
Heavy-medium-light (buying intensity) analysis
What can it tell me?

Who are the heavy category consumers?


How much volume/ value do they contribute?
What is their demographic profile?

What is the general buying behavior of the heavy buyers?


How frequently do they purchase?
What pack size do they buy?
Where do they shop?
Which brands do they like?

My brand profile versus my competitors?


Is my brand attracting the key category consumers?
What is my brands strength or weakness amongst these buyers?
Heavy-medium-light (buying intensity) analysis
Definition

Minimum number of users


Heavy users
accounting for 50% of the volume

Next tier of users accounting for 30%


Medium users
of the volume

Last tier of users with 20% volume


Medium users
contribution
Heavy-medium-light (buying intensity) analysis
A sample report

HH cons per month (mls) Total


% of users HH % vol Contribution SOR shampoo
consumption
Light Medium Heavy

20 % 38 ml 48 % 55 % 69 ml

25 % 20 ml 32 % 29 % 68 ml

55 % 6 ml 20 % 10 % 60 ml

100 % 16 ml 100 % 25 % 64 ml

Sunsilk Triers 63 % Sunsilk Consumed 2,625 T


New, repeat & lapsed (NRL) analysis
Definition

New Users are those households who have


New users bought the selected brand in reference period
(P2) but not in base period (P1).

Repeat Users are those households who have


Repeat users bought the selected brand in both reference
period (P2) & base period (P1).

Lapsed Users are those households who have


Lapsed users bought the selected brand in base period (P1)
but not in reference period (P2).
New, repeat & lapsed (NRL) analysis
A sample report
P1: Jul Aug 2008
New Triers in P2 = 860
P2: Jul Aug 2009

Buyers in P1 = 5,072 Retained Buyers = 3261 Buyers in P2= 4,121


Avg. Cons. = 297 gms in P2 Avg. Cons. = 265 gms

64%

Lapsed Buyers = 1,812


in P2

36%
What will happen to brand A if it discontinues its X SKU
Brand A will loose 82% of its X SKU volume if the SKU is
discontinued
Brand A other SKUs to
gain from its X SKU

Retain
344 tonnes

Brand A X
if brand discontinues
SKU Volume the pack Gain of X SKU of other
1,890 tonnes brands

C
Loose
D
1546 tonnes
E
F
G
Which tool is best designed to
measure which KPI?
3 tools co-exit, they complement each other NOT replace
HOUSEHOLD BRAND HEALTH
RETAIL AUDIT
PANEL TRACKER
Volume/ Value market, shares Yes, much stronger Yes No
Distribution, OOS Yes No No
SISH, stock cover days Yes No No
Price point, & RPI analysis Yes Yes No
Ever Use, current use, exclusive/ conjunction use No Yes, Much Stronger Yes
New, Retained & Lapse user analysis No Yes, Much Stronger Yes
Brand switching analysis (G&L analysis) No Yes No
Loyalty analysis & matrix No Yes, Much Stronger Yes
Pareto analysis (light/ medium/ heavy user analysis) No Yes No
Frequency & place of purchase No Yes, Much Stronger Yes
Trip size No Yes No
Average household spend/ consumption index No Yes No
Consumer DNA HH info, Media habits, grocery habits No Yes, Much Stronger Yes
Brand Awareness & disposition No No Yes
Brand Image Analysis No No Yes
Perception Maps No No Yes
Brand Equity No No Yes
Combined analysis of RA & HHP generates insights
Would your reading be the same your Marketing and Trade actions be similar?

Case 1 Case 2

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5

Case 3 Case 4

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5

Distribution Penetration
Combined analysis of RA & HHP generates insights
Or even ?

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5

Distribution Penetration Loyalty Volume

Both distribution & penetration are increasing, though loyalty among brand-users is on
the decline, resulting in no growth for the brand despite more number of buyers.
HHP is the logical follow-up of BHT to understand brand performance
How HHP & BHT complements each other

Brand awareness

Brand set/ repertoire / brand image

Likelihood to purchase

Actual Purchase

New, retained & lapse user analysis

Sources of gain & loss

FOP, POP, trip size

Loyalty
Ever Use/Trial, exclusive & conjunction usage
Household Panel is based on pantry-audit, so brand is actually verified rather than
being recorded on consumer-claim. Too often consumers mix the brand they are
using with their TOM brand or the brand they desire to use

Even the extent of pantry checking in HHP is more comprehensive than any other
research tool can achieve. The fact that we visit these panellists every month, gives
us access to their kitchen, fridge, store & even bath-rooms hence we are able to
record things with greater accuracy

Ability to report to the brand by size, variant, packaging & price point

Cross category usership analysis are also possible. These becomes very handy when
planning for cross category promotions:
To generate trial among non-users, it is recommended to go with brand with least conjunction
usage. Reverse is true when want to increase the loyalty of existing users

At times we like to see how many of brand-users have used the brand at least x
months during the last 1 year only HHP provides this information

Globally in the presence of both HHP & BHT, always HHP data is used for usership
New, Retained & Lapse user analysis
HHP is a time series data; each panellist is being interviewed every month. This
allows comparison of the brand used in period 1 vs. period 2 at household level (in
both periods this information is verified)

So, actually households can be tagged as new-users, lapsers & retain-users.


Once users are tagged as NRL users of the brand, all kind of analysis, such as, but
not limited to:
% new, retained & lapse users
Their volume/value contribution to the brand
Average spend on the brand & on other brands by these user groups
Loyalty among NRL users, etc.

Above can be done at brand level & for any size, pack of the brand

On the contrary in BHT, not only this is based on claimed purchases but also for
identification of new, lapse & retain users this is based on consumers responding for
the period of 1 year, last 6 months, last 3 months which compromises the data
quality

Globally in the presence of both HHP & BHT, always HHP data is used for NRL
analysis
Brand Switching analysis
It is a volumetric measure and can only be calculated based on the analysis of time-
series data available via household level

Calculating it at incidence level (usership) is at best indicative, worse it can miss-


lead

Brand switching analysis based on HHP provides with 4 sources of volume change,
which are not available via BHT. The sources of volume change are:
new/lapsed market buyer
Increase/ decreased brand purchase
Added/dropped from repertoire
Brand switching

Globally only HHP data is used for brand switching (G&L) analysis
Loyalty analysis & matrix
Loyalty is a multi-facet fact & can be defined from attitudinal & behavioural
perspective

BHT is the best source to define attitudinal loyalty, while HHP is the best source to
define loyalty based on consumer behaviour. While it is expected that the two will
have high/medium correlation, it is not supersizing that attitudinal loyalty does not
always translates into behavioural loyalty. For instance, for a premium brand
typically one would always get very high attitudinal loyalty, which often doesn't
translate into that high volumes hence it is usual to use BHT as a measure for
equity, disposition & use HHP for loyalty

Additionally, there are very few exclusive brand users across the categories &
conjunction users don't divide their spending between the brands equally. So, for
each consumer a matrix could be constructed explaining how it divides volume
between various brands this is only available via HHP

Globally only HHP data is used for Loyalty & Loyalty matrix analysis
Pareto analysis heaviness of consumption
Light, medium & heavy user analysis is only possible via HHP

It actually analyses each consumers interaction with the brand keeping in view all
consumers combined interaction with the brand to tag brand-users as light,
medium or heavy
Heavy user of one brand in HHP can be the heavy user of another brand
Heavy user of one brand can be light/ medium user of the category
In fact, by cross-tabulating the brand & category users one can define the MVC (most valuable
consumers) for the brand

Once users are tagged LMH users of the brand, all kind of analysis, such as, but not
limited to:
% light, medium & heavy users
Their volume/value contribution to the brand
Average spend on the brand & on other brands by these user groups
Loyalty among LMH users, etc.

Globally only HHP data is used for LMH analysis


We look forward to start our relationship
with you. In case of further query, please
contact on below numbers

Muhammad.zubair@foresight.com.pk
(+92-21) 34527402, 34527302,
(+92) 321-2007179