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- Jule Dupuit

- A simple way of weighing up project costs and benefits

- A decision making device for evaluating activities that are not priced by the

market

CBA Tools

PP = IC/NACI

IC= Investment Cost

NACI = Net Annual Cash Inflow

PP=Last Negative Year+(-(Last Negative Return)/Cash Inflow)

- The value of a current asset at a specified date in the future based on an

assumed rate of growth over time

FV = I x (1+ (RxT))

I = Initial Investment

R = Interest Rate

T = Time

FV = I x ((1+R)T)

Excel Formula: fx=A1*((1+B1)^C1)

PV = FV / ((1+R)T)

R = discount rate per period of time

Excel Formula: fx=A1/((1+B1)^C1)

NPV = SP I

SP = Sum of Present Value

Research

IRR Internal rate of return (IRR)

where P0, P1, . . . Pn equals the cash flows in periods 1, 2, . . . n, respectively; and

IRR equals the project's internal rate of return.

budgeting measuring the profitability of potential investments.

Internal rate of return is a discount rate that makes the net

present value (NPV) of all cash flows from a

particular project equal to zero. IRR calculations rely on the same

formula as NPV does.

where:

To calculate IRR using the formula, one would set NPV equal to

zero and solve for the discount rate r, which is here the IRR.

Because of the nature of the formula, however, IRR cannot be

calculated analytically, and must instead be calculated either

through trial-and-error or using software programmed to calculate

IRR.

Generally speaking, the higher a project's internal rate of return,

the more desirable it is to undertake the project. IRR is uniform for

investments of varying types and, as such, IRR can be used to

rank multiple prospective projects a firm is considering on a

relatively even basis. Assuming the costs of investment are equal

among the various projects, the project with the highest IRR

would probably be considered the best and undertaken first.

Payback Period

The payback period formula is used to determine the length of time it will take to

recoup the initial amount invested on a project or investment. The payback period

formula is used for quick calculations and is generally not considered an end-all

for evaluating whether to invest in a particular situation.

The result of the payback period formula will match how often the cash flows are

received. An example would be an initial outflow of $5,000 with $1,000 cash

inflows per month. This would result in a 5 month payback period. If the cash

inflows were paid annually, then the result would be 5 years.

At times, the cash flows will not be equal to one another. If $10,000 is the initial

investment and the cash flows are $1,000 at year one, $6,000 at year two, $3,000

at year three, and $5,000 at year four, the payback period would be three years as

the first three years are equal to the initial outflow.

There are a few drawbacks to the payback period formula that may warrant one to

consider using another method of determining whether to invest.

One issue is that the payback period formula does not look at the value of all

returns. Suppose a situation where there are two choices to choose from where

investment X has a payback period of 1 year and investment Y has a payback

period of 2 years. However, investment X will only return the initial investment

whereas investment Y will eventually pay double the initial investment. Given the

additional information not provided by the payback period formula, one may

consider investment Y to be preferable. The formula for the net present value

method may be used to close this information gap in order to properly evaluate the

best choice.

However, it is worth mentioning that although the net present value method may

be preferable to determine long term profitability, the payback period formula

helps with cash flow analysis for short term budgeting. Suppose a situation where

investment X has a net present value of 10% more than its initial investment and

investment Y has a net present value of triple its initial investment. At first glance,

investment Y may seem the reasonable choice, but suppose that the payback

period for investment X is 1 year and investment Y is 10 years. Investment Y

could cause problems if the investment is needed sooner. An analogy of this

would be like banks where maintaining cash flows of their investments(loans) is

vital to their business.

Another issue with the formula for period payback is that it does not factor in the

time value of money. The time value of money concept, as it applies to the

payback period formula, proposes that each future cash flow is worth less when

compared to today's value. The discounted payback period formula may be used

instead to consider the time value of money, however the discounted payback

period formula takes away the benefit of making quick calculations.

Payback Period

Payback period is the time in which the initial cash outflow of an investment is expected to be

recovered from the cash inflows generated by the investment. It is one of the simplest investment

appraisal techniques.

Formula

The formula to calculate payback period of a project depends on whether the cash flow per period

from the project is even or uneven. In case they are even, the formula to calculate payback period is:

Initial Investment

Payback Period =

Cash Inflow per Period

When cash inflows are uneven, we need to calculate the cumulative net cash flow for each period and

then use the following formula for payback period:

B

Payback Period = A +

C

A is the last period with a negative cumulative cash flow;

B is the absolute value of cumulative cash flow at the end of the period A;

C is the total cash flow during the period after A

Decision Rule

Accept the project only if its payback period is LESS than the target payback period.

Examples

Example 1: Even Cash Flows

Company C is planning to undertake a project requiring initial investment of $105 million. The project

is expected to generate $25 million per year for 7 years. Calculate the payback period of the project.

Solution

Payback Period = Initial Investment Annual Cash Flow = $105M $25M = 4.2 years

Company C is planning to undertake another project requiring initial investment of $50 million and is

expected to generate $10 million in Year 1, $13 million in Year 2, $16 million in year 3, $19 million in

Year 4 and $22 million in Year 5. Calculate the payback value of the project.

Solution

(cash flows in millions) Cumulative

Cash Flow

Year Cash Flow

0 (50) (50)

1 10 (40)

2 13 (27)

3 16 (11)

4 19 8

5 22 30

Payback Period

= 3 + (|-$11M| $19M)

= 3 + ($11M $19M)

3 + 0.58

3.58 years

Advantages of payback period are:

1. Payback period is very simple to calculate.

2. It can be a measure of risk inherent in a project. Since cash flows that occur later in a project's life

are considered more uncertain, payback period provides an indication of how certain the project

cash inflows are.

3. For companies facing liquidity problems, it provides a good ranking of projects that would return

money early.

Disadvantages of payback period are:

1. Payback period does not take into account the time value of money which is a serious drawback

since it can lead to wrong decisions. A variation of payback method that attempts to remove this

drawback is called discounted payback period method.

2. It does not take into account, the cash flows that occur after the payback period.

Future Value

Future Value (FV) is a formula used in finance to calculate the value of a cash flow

at a later date than originally received. This idea that an amount today is worth a

different amount than at a future time is based on the time value of money.

The time value of money is the concept that an amount received earlier is worth

more than if the same amount is received at a later time. For example, if one was

offered $100 today or $100 five years from now, the idea is that it is better to

receive this amount today. The opportunity cost for not having this amount in an

investment or savings is quantified using the future value formula. If one wanted to

determine what amount they would like to receive one year from now in lieu of

receiving $100 today, the individual would use the future value formula. See

example at the bottom of the page.

The future value formula also looks at the effect of compounding. Earning .5% per

month is not the same as earning 6% per year, assuming that the monthly

earnings are reinvested. As the months continue along, the next month's earnings

will make additional monies on the earnings from the prior months. For example, if

one earns interest of $40 in month one, the next month will earn interest on the

original balance plus the $40 from the previous month. This is known as

compound interest.

Use of Future Value

The future value formula is used in essentially all areas of finance. In many

circumstances, the future value formula is incorporated into other formulas. As

one example, an annuity in the form of regular deposits in an interest account

would be the sum of the future value of each deposit. Banking, investments,

corporate finance all may use the future value formula is some fashion.

An individual would like to determine their ending balance after one year on an

account that earns .5% per month and is compounded monthly. The original

balance on the account is $1000. For this example, the original balance, which

can also be referred to as initial cash flow or present value, would be

$1000, r would be .005(.5%), and n would be 12 (months).

Putting this into the formula, we would have:

As a side note, notice that 6% of $1000 is $60. The additional $1.68 earned in this

example is due to compounding.

Alternative Formula

The Future Value formula may also be shown as

Compound Interest

account or investment where the amount earned is reinvested. By reinvesting the

amount earned, an investment will earn money based on the effect of

compounding.

Compounding is the concept that any amount earned on an investment can be

reinvested to create additional earnings that would not be realized based on the

original principal, or original balance, alone. The interest on the original balance

alone would be called simple interest. The additional earnings plus simple interest

would equal the total amount earned from compound interest.

Rate and Period in Compound Interest Formula

The rate per period (r) and number of periods (n) in the compound interest

formula must match how often the account is compounded. For example, if an

account is compounded monthly, then one month would be one period. Likewise,

if the account is compounded daily, then one day would be one period and the

rate and number of periods would accommodate this.

Example of Compound Interest Formula

Suppose an account with an original balance of $1000 is earning 12% per year

and is compounded monthly. Due to being compounded monthly, the number of

periods for one year would be 12 and the rate would be 1% (per month). Putting

these variables into the compound interest formula would show

The second portion of the formula would be 1.12683 minus 1. By multiplying the

original principal by the second portion of the formula, the interest earned is

$126.83.

Simple Interest vs. Compound Interest

Using the prior example, the simple interest would be calculated as principal times

rate times time. Given this, the interest earned would be $1000 times 1 year times

12%. After using this formula, the simple interest earned would be $120. Using

compound interest, the amount earned would be $126.83. The additional $6.83

earned would be due to the effect of compounding. If the account was

compounded daily, the amount earned would be higher.

Compound Interest Formula in Relation to APY

The compound interest formula contains the annual percentage yield formula of

This is due to the annual percentage yield calculating the effective rate on an

account, based on the effect of compounding. Using the prior example, the

effective rate would be 12.683%. The compound interest earned could be

determined by multiplying the principal balance by the effective rate.

Alternative Compound Interest Formula

The ending balance of an account with compound interest can be calculated

based on the following formula:

As with the other formula, the rate per period and number of periods must match

how often the account is compounded.

Using the prior example, this formula would return an ending balance of $1126.83.

Simple Interest

The simple interest formula is used to calculate the interest accrued on a loan or

savings account that has simple interest. The simple interest formula is fairly

simple to compute and to remember as principal times rate times time. An

example of a simple interest calculation would be a 3 year saving account at a

10% rate with an original balance of $1000. By inputting these variables into the

formula, $1000 times 10% times 3 years would be $300.

Simple interest is money earned or paid that does not have compounding.

Compounding is the effect of earning interest on the interest that was previously

earned. As shown in the previous example, no amount was earned on the interest

that was earned in prior years.

As with any financial formula, it is important that rate and time are appropriately

measured in relation to one another. If the time is in months, then the rate would

need to be the monthly rate and not the annual rate.

Ending Balance with Simple Interest Formula

The ending balance, or future value, of an account with simple interest can be

calculated using the following formula:

Using the prior example of a $1000 account with a 10% rate, after 3 years the

balance would be $1300. This can be determined by multiplying the $1000 original

balance times [1+(10%)(3)], or times 1.30.

Instead of using this alternative formula, the amount earned could be simply

added to the original balance to find the ending balance. Still using the prior

example, the calculation of the formula that is on the top of the page showed $300

of interest. By adding $300 to the original amount of $1000, the result would be

$1300.

Present Value

present day value of an amount that is received at a future date. The

premise of the equation is that there is "time value of money".

Time value of money is the concept that receiving something today is

worth more than receiving the same item at a future date. The

presumption is that it is preferable to receive $100 today than it is to

receive the same amount one year from today, but what if the choice is

between $100 present day or $106 a year from today? A formula is

needed to provide a quantifiable comparison between an amount today

and an amount at a future time, in terms of its present day value.

Use of Present Value Formula

The Present Value formula has a broad range of uses and may be

applied to various areas of finance including corporate finance, banking

finance, and investment finance. Apart from the various areas of finance

that present value analysis is used, the formula is also used as a

component of other financial formulas.

Example of Present Value Formula

An individual wishes to determine how much money she would need to

put into her money market account to have $100 one year today if she is

earning 5% interest on her account, simple interest.

The $100 she would like one year from present day denotes

the C1 portion of the formula, 5% would be r, and the number of periods

would simply be 1.

Putting this into the formula, we would have

When we solve for PV, she would need $95.24 today in order to reach

$100 one year from now at a rate of 5% simple interest.

Alternative Formula

The Present Value formula may sometimes be shown as

Net Present Value

value of an investment by the discounted sum of all cash flows received

from the project. The formula for the discounted sum of all cash flows

can be rewritten as

important to calculate an estimate of how profitable the project or

investment will be. In the formula, the -C0 is the initial investment, which

is a negative cash flow showing that money is going out as opposed to

coming in. Considering that the money going out is subtracted from the

discounted sum of cash flows coming in, the net present value would

need to be positive in order to be considered a valuable investment.

To provide an example of Net Present Value, consider company Shoes

For You's who is determining whether they should invest in a new

project. Shoes for You's will expect to invest $500,000 for the

development of their new product. The company estimates that the first

year cash flow will be $200,000, the second year cash flow will be

$300,000, and the third year cash flow to be $200,000. The expected

return of 10% is used as the discount rate.

The following table provides each year's cash flow and the present value

of each cash flow.

Year Cash Flow Present Value

0 -$500,000 -$500,000

1 $200,000 $181,818.18

2 $300,000 $247,933.88

3 $200,000 $150,262.96

Net Present Value = $80,015.02

The net present value of this example can be shown in the formula

When solving for the NPV of the formula, this new project would be

estimated to be a valuable venture.

Net Present Value, Benefit Cost

Ratio, and Present Value Ratio for

project assessment

Print

Net Present Value (NPV)

As explained in the first lesson, Net Present Value (NPV) is the cumulative present worth of

positive and negative investment cash flow using a specified rate to handle the time value of money.

NPV = Present Worth Revenue or Saving @i* - Present Worth Costs @i*

Or

NPV = Net Present Worth Positive and Negative Cash Flow @i*

Or

NPV = Present Worth of All Cash Flows @i*

If the calculated NPV for a project is positive, then the project is satisfactory, and if NPV is

negative then the project is not satisfactory.

The following video, NPV function in Excel , explains how NPV can be calculated using

Microsoft Excel (8:04).

In the video NPV and IRR in Excel 2010(link is external)(8:59) you can find another useful

video for calculating NPV using Excel NPV function. In this video cash flow is formatted in

the vertical direction (there is absolutely no difference between vertical and horizontal

formatting, using spreadsheet).

In the following video, IRR function in Excel, I'm explaining how to calculate the Rate of

Return for a given cash flow using Microsoft Excel IRR function (4:19).

Example 3-6:

Please calculate the NPV for the following cash flow, considering minimum discount rate of

10% and 15%.

0 1 2 3 ... 10

C: Cost, I:Income

i* = 10%: NPV = -60,000 50,000*(P/F10%,1) + 24,000*(P/F10%,1)*(P/A10%,9) = 20,196.88 dollars

i* = 15%: NPV = -60,000 50,000*(P/F15%,1) + 24,000*(P/F15%,1)*(P/A15%,9) = - 3,897.38 dollars

If using spreadsheet, following method can be more convenient:

i* = 10%: NPV = -60,000 50,000*(P/F10%,1)+ 24,000*(P/F10%,2)+ 24,000*(P/F10%,3) + ...

+24,000*(P/F10%,10)= 20,196.88 dollars

i* = 15%: NPV = -60,000 50,000*(P/F15%,1)+ 24,000*(P/F15%,2) ++ 24,000*(P/F15%,3) + ...

+24,000*(P/F15%,10)= - 3,897.38 dollars

Figure 3-5 illustrates the calculation of the NPV function in Microsoft Excel. Please note that

in order to use the NPV function in Microsoft Excel, all costs have to be entered with

negative signs.

Benefit Cost Ratio

Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C ratio) or Cost Benefit Ratio is another criteria for project investment

and is defined as present value of net positive cash flow divided by net negative cash flow

at i*.

Benefit Cost Ratio = PV of Net Positive Cash Flow/PV of Net Negative Cash Flow

Equation 3-1

For the project assessment:

If B/C >1 then project(s) is economically satisfactory

If B/C =1 then project(s) the economic breakeven of the project is similar to other projects

(with same discount rate or rate of return)

If B/C <1 then project(s) is not economically satisfactory

Present Value Ratio

Present Value Ratio (PVR) can also be used for economic assessment of project(s) and it

can be determined as net present value divided by net negative cash flow at i*.

Present Value Ratio (PVR) = NPV/PV of Net Negative Cash Flow

Equation 3-2

If PVR>0 then project(s) is economically satisfactory

If PVR=0 then project(s) is in an economic breakeven with other projects (with same

discount rate or rate of return)

If PVR<0 then project(s) is not economically satisfactory

Example 3-7

Calculate the B/C ratio and PVR for the cash flow in example 3-6.

i* = 10%:

B/C Ratio = 24,000*(P/F10%,1)*(P/A10%,9)/ [60,000 + 50,000*(P/F10%,1)] =1.19 project

iseconomicallysatisfactory at i* = 10%

PVR = NPV/[60,000 + 50,000*(P/F10%,1)] =0.19 project iseconomically satisfactoryat i* = 10%

i* = 15%:

B/C Ratio = 24,000*(P/F15%,1)*(P/A15%,9)/ [60,000 + 50,000*(P/F15%,1)] =0.96 project is not

economicallysatisfactory at i* = 15%

PVR = NPV/[60,000 + 50,000*(P/F15%,1)] = -0.04 project is not economicallysatisfactory ati* =

15%

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Deciding, Quantitatively, Whether to Go Ahead

(Also known as CBA and Benefit-Cost Analysis)

iStockphoto

Henrik5000

Do the benefits justify the cost?

Imagine that you've recently taken on a new

project, and your people are struggling to keep up

with the increased workload.

You are therefore considering whether to hire a new team member.

Clearly, the benefits of hiring a new person need to significantly outweigh

the associated costs.

This is where Cost-Benefit Analysis is useful.

Note:

CBA is a quick and simple technique that you can use for non-critical

financial decisions. Where decisions are mission-critical, or large sums of

money are involved, other approaches such as use of Net Present

Values and Internal Rates of Return are often more appropriate.

About the Tool

Jules Dupuit, a French engineer and economist, introduced the concepts

behind CBA in the 1840s. It became popular in the 1950s as a simple way

of weighing up project costs and benefits, to determine whether to go

ahead with a project.

As its name suggests, Cost-Benefit Analysis involves adding up the

benefits of a course of action, and then comparing these with the costs

associated with it.

The results of the analysis are often expressed as a payback period this is

the time it takes for benefits to repay costs. Many people who use it look

for payback in less than a specific period for example, three years.

You can use the technique in a wide variety of situations. For example,

when you are:

Deciding whether to hire new team members.

Evaluating a new project or change initiative.

Determining the feasibility of a capital purchase.

However, bear in mind that it is best for making quick and simple financial

decisions. More robust approaches are commonly used for more complex,

business-critical or high cost decisions.

How to Use the Tool

Follow these steps to do a Cost-Benefit Analysis.

Step One: Brainstorm Costs and Benefits

First, take time to brainstorm all of the costs associated with the project, and

make a list of these. Then, do the same for all of the benefits of the project.

Can you think of any unexpected costs? And are there benefits that you may

not initially have anticipated?

When you come up with the costs and benefits, think about the lifetime of the

project. What are the costs and benefits likely to be over time?

Step Two: Assign a Monetary Value to the Costs

Costs include the costs of physical resources needed, as well as the cost of

the human effort involved in all phases of a project. Costs are often relatively

easy to estimate (compared with revenues).

It's important that you think about as many related costs as you can. For

example, what will any training cost? Will there be a decrease in productivity

while people are learning a new system or technology, and how much will this

cost?

Remember to think about costs that will continue to be incurred once the

project is finished. For example, consider whether you will need additional

staff, if your team will need ongoing training, or if you'll have increased

overheads.

Step Three: Assign a Monetary Value to the Benefits

This step is less straightforward than step two! Firstly, it's often very difficult to

predict revenues accurately, especially for new products. Secondly, along with

the financial benefits that you anticipate, there are often intangible, or soft,

benefits that are important outcomes of the project.

For instance, what is the impact on the environment, employee satisfaction, or

health and safety? What is the monetary value of that impact?

As an example, is preserving an ancient monument worth $500,000, or is it

worth $5,000,000 because of its historical importance? Or, what is the value

of stress-free travel to work in the morning? Here, it's important to consult with

other stakeholders and decide how you'll value these intangible items.

Step Four: Compare Costs and Benefits

Finally, compare the value of your costs to the value of your benefits, and use

this analysis to decide your course of action.

To do this, calculate your total costs and your total benefits, and compare the

two values to determine whether your benefits outweigh your costs. At this

stage it's important to consider the payback time, to find out how long it will

take for you to reach the break even point the point in time at which the

benefits have just repaid the costs.

For simple examples, where the same benefits are received each period, you

can calculate the payback period by dividing the projected total cost of the

project by the projected total revenues:

Total cost / total revenue (or benefits) = length of time (payback period).

Example

Custom Graphic Works has been operating for just over a year, and sales are

exceeding targets. Currently, two designers are working full-time, and the

owner is considering increasing capacity to meet demand. (This would involve

leasing more space and hiring two new designers.)

He decides to complete a Cost-Benefit Analysis to explore his choices.

Assumptions

Currently, the owner of the company has more work than he can cope with, and he

is outsourcing to other design firms at a cost of $50 an hour. The company

outsources an average of 100 hours of work each month.

He estimates that revenue will increase by 50 percent with increased capacity.

Per-person production will increase by 10 percent with more working space.

The analysis horizon is one year: that is, he expects benefits to accrue within the

year.

Costs

Cost in First

Category Details

Year

Lease $18 per square foot $13,500

improvements space $15,000

Cost in First

Category Details

Year

Hire two more Recruitment costs $11,250

designers Orientation and training $3,000

workstations Software licenses $1,000

downtime revenue per week $15,000

Total $139,750

Benefits

Benefit Within

Benefit

12 Months

outsourcing (100 hours per month, on average: savings equals

$3,500 a month) $42,000

$3,750 = $11,250 revenue per week with a 10 percent increase

= $1,125/week) $58,500

percent in-house design $10,000

Total $305,500

He calculates the payback time as shown below:

$139,750 / $305,500 = 0.46 of a year, or approximately 5.5 months.

Inevitably, the estimates of the benefit are subjective, and there is a degree of

uncertainty associated with the anticipated revenue increase. Despite this, the

owner of Custom Graphic Works decides to go ahead with the expansion and

hiring, given the extent to which the benefits outweigh the costs within the first

year.

Flaws of Cost-Benefit Analysis

Cost-Benefit Analysis struggles as an approach where a project has cash

flows that come in over a number of periods of time, particularly where returns

vary from period to period. In these cases, use Net Present Value (NPV)

and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) calculations together to evaluate the

project, rather than using Cost-Benefit Analysis. (These also have the

advantage of bringing "time value of money" into the calculation.)

Also, the revenue that will be generated by a project can be very hard to

predict, and the value that people place on intangible benefits can be very

subjective. This can often make the assessment of possible revenues

unreliable (this is a flaw in many approaches to financial evaluation). So, how

realistic and objective are the benefit values used?

Key Points

Cost-benefit analysis is a relatively straightforward tool for deciding

whether to pursue a project.

To use the tool, first list all the anticipated costs associated with the

project, and then estimate the benefits that you'll receive from it.

Where benefits are received over time, work out the time it will take for

the benefits to repay the costs.

You can carry out an analysis using only financial costs and benefits.

However, you may decide to include intangible items within the analysis.

As you must estimate a value for these items, this inevitably brings more

subjectivity into the process.

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