Table of Contents

Overview
Key Insights
Methodology
Introduction
Colorado Independent Voters
Dissatisfied with Governance
Disillusioned by Both Parties
Centrist, Swing Voters

Opportunities for Independent Candidates

Reform Voters
Appeal of Independents

Obstacles for Independent Candidates

Conclusion
About Us
Centrist Project Institute
Contact Us

2017 The Centrist Project Institute.

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Overview
A majority of Colorado voters (53%) believe the two major parties
are not working together well in the state legislature to solve
problems facing Colorado with 71% placing blame for partisan
gridlock on both Democrats and Republicans.

Amid growing dissatisfaction with both parties and the state of

governance today, an overwhelming majority of Coloradans
(85%) now say they are open to voting for independent
candidates who may run for the state legislature in 2018.

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Key Insights
In a groundbreaking survey of more than 2,000 voters across Colorado, the
Centrist Project Institute uncovered several unique and important insights:

1. A broad base of support. The potential base of support for independent

candidates extends far beyond independent voters themselves (92%) to large
majorities of both Democrats (84%) and Republicans (82%). This potential base
of support includes three quarters (74%) of voters who say they otherwise only
cast their ballots for one party or the other.

2. Desire for bridge builders. Independent candidates greatest appeal to voters,

with 78% agreement, is the notion that they can represent all of the people, not
just those from their party. Voters are specifically looking for independent
candidates who have strong personal integrity and who are able to bridge the
growing partisan divide in government.

3. Single-issue reform voters. For 28% of voters, the single most important criteria
in evaluating candidates in the next election will be their ability to break through
the political gridlock and influence of special interests to solve problems.

Combined, these insights paint a portrait of an electorate that is restive for a viable
alternative to both Democrats and Republicans in 2018. Indeed, 48% of voters said that
electing independents to the state legislature would improve how the government
worked while only 5% said it would make things worse.

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Methodology
The Centrist Project Institute a non-partisan, non-profit
organization that researches barriers to voting, running for and
serving in elected office by independent voters and candidates
carried out the survey between August 21 and September 10, 2017.

The poll, conducted by Triton Polling & Research, surveyed 2,026

likely voters across the Centennial State and has a margin of
error of +/- 2.2%.

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Introduction

There are over 1.2 million active Technically registered as

independent voters in Colorado today,

unaffiliated, independent voters do
not belong to any political party.
or 36% of the entire electorate They will, for the first time, be able to
outnumbering both Democrats (31%) participate in party primary

and Republicans (31%).1

elections in 2018 as a result of a
ballot measure passed in 2016.

New voter registrations indicate that Coloradans are registering unaffiliated at over
twice the rate as they are with a major party.2 Between January and October 2017, the
Colorado Secretary of State reported 58,478 additional active independent voters
while Republicans lost nearly 3,400 voters and Democrats lost nearly 600 voters
statewide.

Yet, despite being the largest and fastest growing segment of the electorate, there is
not a single independent among the 100 members of the Colorado state legislature. In
fact, there is not a single independent on record as ever having won a seat in the
legislature in the history of the state.3

1
Party Registration Status; Colorado Secretary of State; October 1, 2017

2
A Surge in unaffiliated voters helps set a new record in Colorado; Colorado Politics; August 15, 2017

3
Election Results Archive; Colorado Secretary of State

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This disconnect can, in part, be explained by the fact that few credible candidates run
for office as independents in the first place, since they lack the support structure of
volunteers, donors, and staff that the major parties provide. In the last three election
cycles, for example, only 10 independent state legislative candidates ran for office
compared to 455 Democrats and 514 Republicans.

However, if credible candidates with a support structure were to run for state
legislature in 2018, to what extent would they find support among the
electorate?

To answer that question, we surveyed more than 2,000 likely voters across the state to
find out:

Who are independent voters, and why are they independent?

Are voters open to supporting independent candidates, and if so, why?
What obstacles would independent candidates face?

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Colorado Independent Voters

Dissatisfied with Governance

A majority of all voters (53%), and an When these voters were asked which

even higher number of independents

party is to blame for the gridlock in
the legislature, 71% said both
(58%), believe that Democrats and Democrats and Republicans were
Republicans are not working together responsible.

well in the state legislature to solve

Independents were more likely to
problems facing Colorado. blame both sides, at 83%.

Disillusioned by Both Parties

Independent voters give many reasons for why they are independent. The vast
majority of independents say that both parties care more about winning
elections than getting things done with 60% strongly agreeing and
another 21% agreeing with the statement.

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 Why are independent voters registered as such?

Statement Strongly Agree Total Agree

Both parties care more about winning elections than 60% 81%
getting things done.

Both parties care more about serving their special 55% 75%
interests than the people.

I agree with Democrats on some issues and 39% 65%

Republicans on others.

There is no difference between the parties. 19% 30%

Politics isnt that important to me / Never given it 3% 8%

much thought.

In open responses to the question of why they are independent, unaffiliated voters
most frequently cited reasons included:

1. They like to make decisions for themselves.

a. I evaluate issues myself. I don't rely on others to tell me how I feel. I use
facts.
b. I don't want to lock myself into a decision. I'd like to keep my options
open.
c. I like the choice, and I don't like to be told by a party what to do.
d. I would like to judge the candidate on their own ideas and merit and not
the parties they belong to.

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 2. They dont feel represented by either party.
a. What we have for Democrats and Republicans isn't working. We need
more common sense in office.
b. Both parties are too far left and too far right.
c. I don't really have ideals that match either party. I'm socially liberal but
economically conservative.
d. Ive never been a believer of either party's total platform. Your feelings and
beliefs change as you grow older.

3. They are frustrated by partisanship and special interests.

a. I feel Democrats and Republicans are pulling this country apart. I would
rather I had someone work for me to get things done.
b. Lobbyists and special interest groups tied to the Republican and
Democratic parties have eroded the pillars of democracy on which our
country was founded.
c. I haven't seen either party keep their word.
d. The two parties only work for themselves.

Centrist, Swing Voters

Although some political observers and political scientists argue that independents are
closet partisans who consistently vote for one party or another4, the survey found that
three quarters of independents (75%) alternate between parties on their ballot. Just 3%
reported only voting for one party.

4
he Partisans in the Closet; By Alan Abramowtiz in Politico Magazine; January, 2014
T

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On the other hand, majorities of Democrats and Republicans reported only or mostly
voting for candidates who share their party affiliation 69% and 59%, respectively.
About a third of party members, 25% of Republicans and 32% of Democrats, reported
only voting for members of their own party.

While there is far wider ideological diversity among independents than either
Democrats or Republicans, a plurality of independents (36%) identify as
moderate/centrist; and just 10% of independents describe themselves as either very
conservative or very liberal/progressive. Roughly the same share of independents say
they are conservative (21%) as liberal/progressive (20%).

Ideological polarization is more pronounced among party members: 22% of

Republicans consider themselves to be very conservative and 18% of Democrats
consider themselves to be very liberal/progressive.

Political Ideology by Party Affiliation

Very Centrist/ Very
Liberal Conservative
Liberal Moderate Conservative

Republican 0% 4% 16% 51% 22%

Democrat 18% 40% 21% 7% 2%

Independent 6% 20% 36% 21% 4%

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Opportunities for Independent Candidates

Overall, 85% of voters indicated they Among those who would definitely

would definitely, probably, or maybe

consider voting for an independent
were a majority of independents
consider supporting an independent (52%) and a third of both Democrats
candidate for state legislature (34%) and Republicans (32%).

including 82% of Republicans, 84% of

Democrats, and 92% of independents.

While some political observers claim that independent candidates would draw
disproportionately from one party or another5, the survey found virtually equal support
for independents among voters regardless of their major party identification or
ideology.

Even among voters who said they only voted for Democrats or Republicans on their
ballot, three quarters (74%) indicated they would consider voting for an independent.
This reflects findings elsewhere that growing partisanship in the electorate is more a
function of a dislike of the other party rather than a love of ones own.6

5
he Midterm Election (Spoilers) By Nora-Biette-Timmons; The Atlantic; November, 2014
T

6
he Partisan Divide on Political Views Grows Even Wider Pew Research Center; October, 2017
T

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In other words, both Democrats who would never vote for a Republican and Republicans
who would never vote for a Democrat would consider voting for an independent
candidate.

Further, 37% of voters who indicated they would not consider voting for an independent
also said they would change their mind if the candidate from the party they would
typically vote for had no chance of winning.

Reform Voters
When considering who they will support in the next election, a significant
segment of the electorate expressed interest in reform-minded candidates.

For 28% of voters, a candidates ability to break through the political gridlock and
special interest dysfunction in government to solve problems is more important than
their having specific policy proposals on pressing issues like transportation and
education or having matching views on hot-button issues like guns and abortion.

This segment of the electorate may be considered single-issue reform voters who are
more interested in candidates who can fix the political system than candidates who
have a particular political agenda.

Getting government to work in the interest of the people, rather than parties or special
interests, is the most salient issue for a broad swath of the electorate including a
more than a quarter of Democrats (25%) and Republicans (27%) and more than a third
of independents (37%).

What are voters top criteria for evaluating candidates in the next election?

Candidates who have specific ideas and clear proposals on 34%

pressing issues like transportation, education, or natural resources

Candidates who hold my same views on hot-button issues like 33%

taxes, abortion, guns, or immigration

Candidates who can break through the political gridlock and 28%
special interest dysfunction in government to solve problems

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Appeal of Independents
When voters were asked what they found appealing about potential independent
candidates, there was agreement across the board that independents could: represent
all of the people, find common ground between both parties, champion the best ideas,
and remain free from the influence of partisan and special interests.

What do voters find appealing about independent candidates?

Statement Strongly Agree Total Agree

Independents can represent all of the people, not 54% 78%

just those from their party.

Independents can find common ground between 47% 74%

both parties and bridge the partisan divide.

Independents would not be beholden the party 48% 71%

bosses and special interests.

Independents can take the best ideas to solve 47% 68%

problems no matter where they come from.

In open responses, voters described what they were looking for in independent
candidates. In over a quarter of responses, voters expressed a desire for independent
candidates to represent a collaborative and constructive approach to governance.

A reasonable and moderate approach to solving issues, and a willingness to

work with both parties.
Somebody who can think on their own, look at the issues honestly, and see what
positive or negative impacts would occur.
Someone who specifically can get the two parties working together to get stuff
done.
Truly being independent and able to compromise with both sides.
Willing to put country over party and common sense over party.
Someone that will reunite this country and bring people together, not separate
them.
Someone who can get things done by not having an affiliation or loyalty to either
major party. Someone who can break party lines.

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Personal integrity and character were also a top priority; the quality of being honest or
trustworthy was mentioned in over one in five replies.

Obstacles for Independent Candidates

The largest barrier facing independent candidates is whether voters believe they can
actually win.

As one voter said in an open response: [Independents] don't stand a chance to win. If
they did, I would vote for them. Added another: They don't have a chance, even if I agree
with their issues.

Of the various reasons why someone might not support an independent candidate,
voters fear that they might waste their vote or spoil the election was a top concern.

Why might voters not support an independent candidate?

Statement Strongly Agree Total Agree

Voting for an independent might waste my vote or 31% 50%

may cause my least favorite candidate to get elected.

It can be difficult to vote for an independent 22% 41%

candidate because I dont know where they stand on
the issues important to me.

I dont think they could be effective in office since the 16% 31%
legislature is controlled by parties.

It is important to note that when voters who said they are open to voting for
independent candidates were asked if they would still consider voting that way even if
it risked electing your least preferred candidate the vast majority (68%) said they
would stick by their decision. This included two thirds of Democrats (64%) and

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Republicans (64%) and three quarters of independents (78%), who collectively comprise
63% of the electorate.

In other words, the presence of the largest potential obstacle facing independent
candidates being perceived as a spoiler only caused the proportion of voters who
said they were open to voting for independents to reduce from 85% to 63%, still a
near-supermajority of voters.

In open responses, voters expressed a strong desire for independent candidates to truly
be different than major party candidates.

When asked why they might not vote for an independent, some voters replied:

Being too partisan. Them running as independent but with the same views as
the two parties.
Candidates that represent too much of the status quo. I want someone who's
not afraid to be out there on different platforms than we're used to.
Came from political background; not someone that was schooled in a tradition
of systematic problem solving or critical thinking.
Someone who seems like theyre using a different name for the same thing; too
similar to either party.

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 Conclusion
Given the level of desire for independent candidates from voters
across the state and across the political spectrum, the survey
highlights a clear and compelling opportunity for any
independent who may seek a seat in the Colorado state
legislature in 2018.

Beyond self-identified independents, there is an emerging

majority coalition of voters who both transcend party affiliation
and political ideology and share a common desire for
independent leadership that is not beholden to party bosses and
special interests.

There is little doubt, based on this polling, that this coalition has
the potential to carry an independent candidate to victory
especially if the candidate is viewed as a person of integrity and
is perceived as viable by voters.

If credible independent candidates run for office in 2018, both

political parties historic and complete control over the Colorado
state legislature may come to an end.

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About Us

Centrist Project Institute

The Centrist Project Institute is a non-partisan, non-profit

organization that seeks to encourage broad-based civic
engagement and political participation. The Institute conducts
research to identify institutional barriers unaffiliated candidates
face when running for and serving in elected office, and
researches non-partisan solutions for important issues of public
concern.

Contact Us

Nick Troiano
Executive Director

nick@centristprojectinstitute.org

970-283-7385

2420 17th street, 3rd Floor

Denver, CO 80202

2017 The Centrist Project Institute.

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