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QRChapter1OnlineQuiz#1(Week1)

AttemptQuestions12afterviewingUnit3

1. Thefollowingdataaregivenfor2013:

Age Numberofwomenofthisage Numberoflivebirthsbywomenofthisage


25  26565  1427
26  26778  1710
27  26992  1998
28  27671  2157
29  28350  2322

Computetheagespecificfertilityratefortheagegroup2529fortheyear.
(A) 0.0705
(B) 0.705
(C) 7.05
(D) 70.5
(E) Cannotbecomputedasthenumberofmen(males)ofthisagegroupisnotgiven

2. Itisknownthatintheyear2013,thenumberofimmigrantsis9000whilethenumberof
emigrantsis10000.Thenetmigrationnumberfortheyearis:
(A) 19000
(B) 1000
(C) 1000
(D) 1
(E) 1

AttemptQuestions3afterviewingUnit5

3. ConsiderthefollowingExcelspreadsheet:





(i) Inthisspreadsheet,theformulaA1*A1+A1hasbeenenteredintothecellB1.What
valuewillappearinCellB1oncewehittheenterkey?
(A) 10
(B) 20
(C) 30
(D) 40
(E) 50

(ii) IfthisformulaiscopiedintoCellB2,whatvaluewillappearinCellB2whenthe
computationiscarriedout?
(A) 30
(B) 60
(C) 85
(D) 110
(E) 200

(iii) NowsupposetheformulainCellB1ischangedtoA1*A1+$A$1,whatvaluewillappear
inCellB2uponcopyingoftheformula?
(A) 30
(B) 50
(C) 105
(D) 200
(E) 405

AttemptQuestion4afterviewingUnit6

4. Acertaincommunityfacesahighdivisivesociopoliticalissue.Apollistaken,andthefollowing
resultsareobtained:

Opinion StronglyDisagree Disagree Neutral Agree StronglyAgree


Noofpeople 10000 5000 100 5000 10000


Ifoneassignsthevalueof2tostronglydisagree,1todisagree,0toneutral,+1to
agreeand+2tostronglyagree,thenonemayconcludethat,onaverage,peopleofthis
communityareneutraltotheissue.Thisisofcoursefurthestfromthetruth!Thisexample
illustratesthat:
(A) Apollisnoteffectiveinthissituation
(B) Oneneedstobecarefulwheninterpretinganaverage
(C) Adifferentscale(insteadof2,1,0,1,2)shouldbeassignedtothe5opinions
(D) Theopinionneutralshouldnotbeincluded
(E) Alloftheabove
QRChapter1OnlineQuiz#1(Week1)
Solutions

1. (D)

Agespecificfertilityratefortheagegroup2529isdefinedas




Hence,theansweris

(1427+1710+1998+2157+2322)/(26565+26778+26992+27671+28350)x1000=70.5

Theimportantthingtokeepinmindisthatfertilityrateisdefinedtobethenumberoflivebirthsper
1000women;henceweneedtomultiplyby1000.

Think:Whyis(1427/26565+1710/26778+1998/26992+2157/27671+2322/28350)x1000=351.6
notthecorrectanswer?

Notethat1427/26565x1000istheagespecificfertilityrateforthecohortofage25.Thus,the
figure351.6presentedaboveisinfactthesumofrates.Buttheoverallrateisnotthesumofrates.
Toseethis,justconsiderthefollowingexample:Supposeyouborrowmoney.Altogetheryouborrow
$500.Butyouborrowfrom5differentsources$100fromeachsource.Now,eachsourcecharges
youadifferentinterestrate;say,the1stsourceschargesyou5%,the2ndsource6%,3rdsource7%,4th
source8%,and5thsource9%.Whatistheoverall(oreffective)interestratechargedonyourentire
loanof$500?Clearly,thatoverallinterestrateisNOT5%+6%+7%+8%+9%.

2. (C)

Netmigration=immigrantsemigrants=900010000=1000

3. (i) (C)

A1*A1+A1=5x5+5=30

(ii) (D)

CopiedformulawouldappearasA2*A2+A2=10x10+10=110.Itwouldbeconstructivetoactually
dothisinaspreadsheet.AfteryouhavecopiedtheformulafromB1toB2,youcanclickthecellB2
andseetheformulaenteredintothatcellatthetopofthespreadsheet.Bytheway,Excelisbuiltin
suchawaythatthecellsthataformulareferstoarehighlightedindifferentcolourstohelpyou
followtheformula.

(iii) (C)

CopiedformulawouldappearasA2*A2+$A$1=10x10+5=105.Again,trytoactuallydothisina
spreadsheet. 

4. (B)

Thecruxofthematterhereistheaveraging.

Think:Whatmightbeabetterwaytosummarise/presentthepollresult?Whataboutahistogram?
QRChapter1OnlineQuiz#2(Week2)

AttemptQuestions12afterviewingUnit7

1. RecallthefollowingformulasderivedinUnit7withregardtoPLIonpopulation(pleasereferto
Unit7forthenotationsused):

Value1=Value0stepsizeleft
Value2=Value1stepsizeleft
Value+1=Value0+stepsizeright
Value+2=Value+1+stepsizeright

Value2+Value1+Value0+Value+1+Value+2
=Totalpopulationoftheagegroup(**)

Now,giventhefollowing:
Totalpopulationoftheagegroup=10000
  Stepsizeleft=250
  Stepsizeright=400
computethepopulationsizeValue0. 

(A) 2090
(B) 1610
(C) 2390
(D) 1940
1910
(E) 1910

2. RecallthefollowingformulasderivedinUnit7withregardtoPLIonrates(pleaserefertoUnit7
forthenotationsused):

Value1=Value0stepsizeleft
Value2=Value1stepsizeleft
Value+1=Value0+stepsizeright
Value+2=Value+1+stepsizeright

(Value2)(Pop2)+(Value1)(Pop1)+(Value0)(Pop0)+(Value+1)(Pop+1)

+(Value+2)(Pop+2)=(Givenrateforagegroup)(totalpopulationofagegroup)(##)

Now,giventhefollowing:
Givenrateoftheagegroup=150
  Stepsizeleft=25
  Stepsizeright=15
Pop2=2000
  Pop1=2500
  Pop0=2500
  Pop+1=1500
  Pop+2=1500

(note:Totalpopulation=Pop2+Pop1+Pop0+Pop+1+Pop+2)

computetherateValue0.

(A) 173
173
(B) 165.75
(C) 159.5
(D) 140.5
(E) 127

AttemptQuestions35afterviewingUnit9

3. Movingfromthecurrentyeartothefollowingyear,inwhatwecalledStep3aofthepopulation
projectioncarriedoutinUnit9,wecalculatethesizeoftheAge0cohortinthefollowingyear
basedondataofthecurrentyear.Inourmodel,weassumethatthisAge0cohortarisesfrom
birthsinthecurrentyear,andthatthereisnomigrationofAge0.

x thetotalnumberofbirths(aswedothroughoutChapter1,wewillconfineourselvesto
Giventhat:

residentpopulationandresidentbirth)ofthecurrentyearis3000
x theSexRatioatBirth(definedasthenumberofmalebabiesper1000femalebabies)is
1070

computetheAge0malepopulation(roundedofftowholenumber)forthefollowingyear.

(A)3210
(B)2804
(C)1605
(D)1551
1551
(E)1449

4. Movingfromthecurrentyeartothefollowingyear,inwhatwecalledStep3bofthepopulation
projectioncarriedoutinUnit9,wecalculatethesizeoftheAgeXcohort,whereXisbetween1
and84inclusive,inthefollowingyearbasedondataofthecurrentyear.Inourmodel,we
assumethatthisAgeXcohortarisesfromthosewhoareAgeX1currently,minusdeaths,plus
migration.

x theAgeX1cohortofthecurrentyearis5000
Giventhat:

x theAgeX1deathrate(definedasnumberofdeathsper1000population)is20
x theAgeXmigrationrate(definedasthenumberofmigrantsper1000residents)is50

computetheAgeXmalepopulation(roundedofftowholenumber)forthefollowingyear.

(A) 4655
(B) 4950
(C) 5030
(D) 5145
5145
(E) 5205

5. Movingfromthecurrentyeartothefollowingyear,inwhatwecalledStep3cofthepopulation
projectioncarriedoutinUnit9,wecalculatethesizeoftheAge85groupinthefollowingyear
basedondataofthecurrentyear.Inourmodel,weassumethatthisAge85grouparisesfrom
theAge84groupinthecurrentyear,minusdeaths,plusmigration.


x theAge84andAge85populationofthecurrentyearare,respectively,2000and10000
Giventhat:

x theAge84andAge85deathrates(definedasnumberofdeathsper1000population)
are,respectively,50and100100, 1000
x theAge85migrationrate(definedasthenumberofmigrantsper1000residents)is5 -50

computetheAge85population(roundedofftowholenumber)forthefollowingyear.

(A) 10846
10846
(B) 10955
(C) 10936
(D) 10865
(E) 11100
QRChapter1OnlineQuiz#2(Week2)
Solutions

1. (E)

WritingValue0asX,wehave

Value1=X(stepsizeleft)


Value2=Value1(stepsizeleft)=[X(stepsizeleft)](stepsizeleft)=X2(stepsizeleft)


Value+1=X+(stepsizeright)


Value+2=Value+1+(stepsizeright)=[X+(stepsizeright)]+(stepsizeright)=X+2(stepsizeright)

PuttingtheseintoEquation(**),wehave

X2(stepsizeleft)+X(stepsizeleft)+X+X+(stepsizeright)+X+2(stepsizeright)=totalpop

Nowsubstitutinginstepsizeleft=250,stepsizeright=400andtotalpop=10000,weget

X500+X250+X+X+400+X+800=10000

CollectingalltheXsonthelefthandsideandputtingeverythingelseontherighthandside,we
have

5X=10000+500+250400800=9550

Dividingthroughby5,weobtainX=1910.

Note:TheformulathatyouseeinthespreadsheetthatIusedinthelecture(Unit7)is

Value0= 

Thisisessentiallywhattheequationhighlightedaboveinblueis(afterdividingthroughby5).

2. (A)

AgainwritingValue0asX,andsubstitutinginallthegivenvalues,theEquation(##)becomes

(X50)(2000)+(X25)(2500)+X(2500)+(X15)(1500)+(X30)(1500)

=(150)(2000+2500+2500+1500+1500)

SolvingforX,weobtainX=173.Note:Theformulathatyouseeinthespreadsheetusedinthe
lecture(Unit7)forValue0forratesisderivedthisway.

3. (D)

Weknowthatforevery1000femalebabies,thereare1070malebabies.Thismeansthatoutof
every2070births,1070aremalebabiesand1000arefemalebabies.Inotherwords,theproportion
ofmalebabiesis1070/2070.

Thusthenumberofmalebabies=3000x1070/2070=1550.7,whichisroundedoffto1551.


4. (D)

FirstwefindthenumberofpeoplewhoturnAgeXfromAgeX1.ThisisequaltothenumberofAge
X1subtractthenumberofdeathsamongX1yearolds.ThenumberofdeathsofX1yearoldsis
obtainedfromthedeathrate.

NumberofdeathsofX1yearolds=5000x20/1000=100

Thus,numberofAgeX1whoturnAgeX=5000100=4900.

Note:Ifyouwish,youcancombinetheprecedingtwostepsintoone,asfollows:

#ofAgeX1whoturnAgeX=(CurrentAgeX1)x(1 )

NowweaddthemigrantsofAgeX.Thisisobtainedbytakingthesurviving4900X1yearoldsand
applyingthemigrationrate:

4900x50/1000=245

ThusthetotalnumberofAgeXis4900+245=5145

Note:Ifyouwish,youcancombinealltheprecedingstepsintoasingleformula:

#ofAgeXinthefollowingyear=
 
#ofAgeX1incurrentyearx(1 )x(1+ )

ThisistheformulayouseeinthespreadsheetthatIusedinthelectures(Units09and10).

Areminder:whenweapplytherates,recallthattheyaregivenper1000population.

5. (A)

First,wedealwithdeaths.WedothecalculationsforAge84andAge85separately.

(i) Age84

Numberofdeaths=2000x50/1000=100

Thus,numberofAge84turning85=2000100=1900

(ii) Age85

Numberofdeaths=10000x100/1000=1000

Numberofsurvivors=100001000=9000

Addingup(i)and(ii),weseethatthenumberofAge85beforemigrationis10900.

Finally,weaddthenumberofmigrantsofAge85.

Numberofmigrants=10900x(5)/1000=54.5

Thus,totalnumberofAge85=1090054.5=10845.5,roundedoto10846.



Week3Quiz

1. IntheNFIPstudy,letgroupXbetheprimary1and3children,andgroupYbetheprimary2
childrenwithconsent.Supposeallthesechildrendidnotreceiveanytreatment.Whichofthe
followingistrueattheendoftheyear?

A. GroupXhasahigherpolioratethangroupY.
B. GroupsXandYhavesimilarpoliorates.
C. GroupXhasalowerpolioratethangroupY.
D. Wecannottell.

2. IntheSalkvaccinetrial,ifthecontrolgroupdidnotreceiveaplacebo,andadoptedamore
cautiouslifestyle,thiswould___thevaccineseffect.

A. underestimate  B.correctlyestimate
C. overestimate  D.Wecannottell.

3. Refertounit4RandomisedAssignmentslide7.Thetotalnumberofpoliocasesamongthe
controlsandchildrenwithoutconsentisclosestto

A.100   B.300

C.10000   D.30000

4. AleadingcauseofdeathintheU.S.iscoronaryarterydiseaseabreakdownofthemain
arteriestotheheart.Thediseasecanbetreatedwithcoronarybypasssurgery.Inoneofthe
firsttrials,Dr.DanielUllyotandassociatesperformedcoronarybypasssurgeryonatestgroupof
patients:98%survived3yearsormore.Theconventionaltreatmentuseddrugsandspecial
dietstoreducebloodpressureandeliminatefattydepositsinthearteries.Accordingto
previousstudies,only68%ofthepatientsgettingtheconventionaltreatmentsurvived3years
ormore.AnewspaperarticledescribedUllyot'sresultsasspectacular,becausethesurvival
rateamongUllyot'spatientswasmuchhigherthanthesurvivalrateinpreviousstudies.

A. Thenewspaperarticlesenthusiasmwasjustifiedbythestudy.
B. Thenewspaperarticlesenthusiasmwasnotjustifiedbythestudy.
C. Wecannottell.
Week4Quiz

1. Theslicingmethodcomparestheratesofheartdiseasebetweensmokersandnonsmokers
withinmalesandfemalesseparately.Amongthemales,whichstatementistrue?

A. Sex is associated with both smoking status and heart status.
Sexisassociatedwithbothsmokingstatusandheartstatus.
B. Sexisassociatedwithsmokingstatus,butnotwithheartstatus.
C. Sexisassociatedwithheartstatus,butnotsmokingstatus.
D. Sexisassociatedwithneithersmokingstatusnorheartstatus.

2. Refertounit7Adherenceslide4.Fromthetable,thedeathrateamongallthenonadherers
isclosestto

A. 25%.
B. 26%.
27%.
C. 27%.
D. 28%.

3. Intheclofibratestudy,isadherenceassociatedwithfiveyeardeathrateinthestudy?

A. Yes.
B. No.
C. Wecannottell.

4. Epidemiologistsfindanassociationbetweenhighlevelsofcholesterolinthebloodandheart
disease.Theyconcludethatcholesterolcausesheartdisease.However,astatisticianargues
thatsmokingconfoundstheassociation,meaningthat

A. Smokingcausesheartdisease.
B. Smokingcausesheartdisease,andsmokershavehighlevelsofcholesterolintheirblood.
Smoking causes heart disease, and smokers have high levels of cholesterol in their blood.
C. Smokerstendtoeatalesshealthfuldietthannonsmokers.Thus,smokershavehighlevelsof
cholesterolintheblood,whichinturncausesheartdisease.
D. Thepercentageofsmokersisaboutthesameamongpersonswithhighorlowlevelsof
cholesterolintheblood.
 
    

 


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GER1000QUANTITATIVEREASONING

WEEK5:OnlineQuiz#5

Question1
AstudyoftheIQsofhusbandsandwivesresultedinthefollowing:
 Husband averageIQ=100,sd=15
 Wives averageIQ=100,sd=15
 Correlationcoefficientr=0.6
Oneofthefollowingisascatterdiagramforthedata(theovalshapecloud).
Pleaseidentifythescatterdiagramforthedata.

(A)  (B) 

  

(C)  (D) 


  



Question2
Supposethecorrelationcoefficientbetweentwovariablesis1.Whichofthefollowing
statementsisnottrue?
(A) Therelationshipbetweentwovariablescanbeexactlydescribedbyastraightline.
(B) Thetwovariableshaveadeterministiclinearrelationship.
(C) Thecorrelationbetweenthevariablesisveryweak.
(D) Asoneofthevariablesincreases,theotherdecreases.



Question3
Whichofthefollowingisacorrectinterpretationofacorrelation?Chooseoneofthefollowing
optionswhichismostappropriate.
(A) Ifcorrelationcoefficientis0,thereisnorelationshipbetweentwovariables.
(B) Ifthecorrelationcoefficientis0.9,then90%ofthedatapointsaretightlyclusteredalong
aline.
(C) Acorrelationscoefficientof0.85indicatesstrongevidenceofcauseandeffect
relationshipbetweentwovariables.
(D) Whenthereisaweaklinearassociation,thecorrelationcoefficientiscloseto0.



Question4
RefertothenewsclipheadlinediscussedinUnit5:Oralhealthlinktohearttrouble:UStests
findthatheartpatientshadmorebacteriaintheirmouths(publishedon2April2009,The
StraitsTimes),
Chooseoneofthefollowingoptionswhichismostappropriate.
(A) Idbetterhavedentalcheckupregularlytopreventheartdiseases.
(B) Thelinkbetweenoralhealthandheartdiseasecouldberelatedtoathirdvariable.
(C) Bacteriainthemouthcauseheartdisease.
(D) Theheartdiseasewilltriggerdentalproblem.






 (https://www.ndcs.com.sg/Newsroom/MediaRelease/Pages/09MediaReleaseOralHealthLinktoHeartTr
ouble.aspx)


GER1000QUANTITATIVEREASONING

WEEK6:OnlineQuiz#6

Question1

[HypotheticalData]Thefollowingtableshowspercapitaconsumptionofcigarettesinvarious
countriesinyear1980)andthedeathratesfromlungcancerpermillionpopulationinyear
2000.

Cigarette Lungcancerdeathper

Consumptionper millionpopulationin
Country
capitainyear1980 year2000
A 480 180
B 500 150
C 300 170
D 1,100 350
E 1,100 460
F 230 60
G 490 240
H 250 90
I 300 110
J 510 250
K 1,300 200


Basedonthedatagiven,choosethemostappropriateoption.

(A) Thecorrelationcoefficientbetweenlungcancerdeathandcigaretteconsumptionis
about0.73.
(B) Thedeathratesfromlungcancertendtobehigheramongpeoplewhosmokemore.
(C) Thedatashowedthatcigarettesmokingaffectslungcancerdeath.
(D) Thehighercigaretteconsumptioninyear1980inoneofthecountries,thehigherdeath
ratefromlungcancerinyear2000. 
 


 
Question2

Twoweathermen,JackandJill,computethecorrelationbetweendailymaximumtemperature
fortwocities,TokyoandNewYork.JackdoesitforthemonthofJune;Jilldoesitforthewhole
year.Whoislikelytogetastrongercorrelation?Choosethemostappropriateoption.

(A) Jack.
(B) Jill.
(C) JackandJillshouldgetthesamecorrelation.



Question3

Thedatabelowrepresentthenumbersofabsencesduringagivensemesterandthe
correspondingfinalgradesof15studentsinacertainclass.Aregressionlineisfittedtopredict
finalgradeonthenumberofabsences.Choosethemostappropriateoption.



(A) Numberofabsencesisthedependentvariable.
(B) Theslopeoftheregressionlineis0.304
(C) Theinterceptoftheregressionlinerepresentsthepredictedfinalgradewhenastudent
hadzeroabsences.
(D) Astudentwasabsentfromtheclass7times.Icanpredicthisorherexactfinalgradewith
theregressionline.
(E) Givennumberofabsences,16,Icanpredicttheaveragefinalgradewiththeregression
line.



Question4

RefertotheexampleoflungcancerversusheavydrinkinginChapter3,Unit10.Choosethe
mostappropriateoption.
(A) Ariskratioof1.66meansthatexposuretoheavydrinkingisincreasedby66%inthelung
cancergrouprelativetothenonlungcancergroup.
(B) Ariskratioof1.66indicatesthatriskoflungcancerisincreasedby66%intheheavy
drinkinggrouprelativetothenondrinkinggroup.
(C) Anoddsratioof1.67impliesthatheavydrinkingcausestheincreasedoddsoflung
cancer.
(D) Forbothsmokersandnonsmokers,theoddsratioof1suggeststhatthereisno
associationbetweensmokingandheavydrinking.



GER1000QUANTITATIVEREASONING

WEEK5:OnlineQuiz#5

Generalcomments:

Ingeneral,theclasshasdonewell.Thedetailcommentstoeachquestionwillbegivenbelow.

Question1
(D) 


 

Note: Somepeopleselectedoption(B).Itisnotanappropriateoptionbasedonthe
informationgiven.Conceptually,sdshowstheaveragedistancefromeachdatapoint
totheiraverage.Thatis,theaveragespreadoutforthedatais15.Therefore,some
pointsmaybefurtheraway,whilesomemaybenearertotheaverage.Option(B)
appearstoshowthemaximumdistancefromadatapointtotheaverageis15.


Question2
(C) Thecorrelationbetweenthevariablesisveryweakperfect(deterministic).


Question3
(D) Whenthereisaweaklinearassociation,thecorrelationcoefficientiscloseto0.

Correctionstoinappropriatestatements:
(A) Ifcorrelationcoefficientis0,thereisnolinearrelationshipbetweentwovariables.
(B) Ifthecorrelationcoefficientis0.9,then90%ofthedatapointsaretightlyclusteredalong
aline.
(C) Acorrelationscoefficientof0.85indicatesstrongevidenceofcauseandeffect
relationshipbetweentwovariables.Note:correlationcoefficientdoesnottellusabout
causeandeffectrelationship.


Question4
Themostappropriateoptionis
(B) Thelinkbetweenoralhealthandheartdiseasecouldberelatedtoathirdvariable.




WEEK6:OnlineQuiz#6

Generalcomments:

Thisquizismorechallengeascomparedtoweek5quiz.Thedetailcommentstoeachquestion
willbegivenbelow.

Question1
(D) Thehighercigaretteconsumptioninyear1980inoneofthecountries,thehigherdeath
ratefromlungcancerinyear2000.

Thisquestionisrelatedtoecologicalcorrelation.Theunitofdatacollectediscountry,not
individual.Thecorrelationcoefficientcalculatedisbasedontheaggregates.Therefore,
conclusionsmadebasedonthedatashouldnottobeappliedtoindividual.
Thatis,acorrelationcoefficientof0.73isusedtomeasurelinearrelationshipbetween
cigaretteconsumptionofacountryandlungcancerdeathrateofacountry.Itwouldnotbe
appropriatetoextendthecorrelationtoindividuallevel.
Themostappropriateoptionis(D).

Note: Quiteafewpeopleselectedeitheroption(A)or(B).
 Withecologicaldata,itisnotappropriatetomakeconclusionsatindividuallevels,such
asoptions(A)&(B).Tomakeconclusions,suchasoptions(A)&(B),weneedto
collecteddataatindividuallevel.Thatis,apersonscigaretteconsumptionandhis/her
lungcancerdeath.
 Option(C)referstoacauseandeffectrelationshipatindividuallevel.


Question2
(B) Jill
 
Weknowthatcorrelationisusedtomeasurelinearrelationshipbetweentwovariables.The
basicideaistoevaluatehowvariabilityinonevariablerelatedtovariabilityintheother
variable.
Thisquestionisrelatedtorangerestrictionandattenuatedeffect.Notetheseasonalvariation
oftemperaturesinNewYorkandTokyo.Itcanbecoldinwintersandhotinsummerinboth
cities.FocusingonJunedatarestrictstherangeofthetemperatures,andweakensthe
correlation.


Question3
(C) Theinterceptoftheregressionlinerepresentsthepredictedfinalgradewhenastudent
hadzeroabsences.


Correctionstoinappropriatestatements:
(A) Numberofabsencesisthedependentindependentvariable.
(B) Theslopeoftheregressionlineis2.42.
 Note:useExcelfunction:=slope(gradedata,absencedata)
(D) Astudentwasabsentfromtheclass7times.Icanpredicthisorherexactfinalgrade
averagegradeforstudentshaving7absenceswiththeregressionline.
(E) Givennumberofabsences,16,Icancantpredicttheaveragefinalgradewiththe
regressionline.
 Note:Somepeopleselectedthisoption.However,16isbeyondtheobservedrangeof
independentvariableinthedataset.Theobservedrangeis0~15.


Question4
(B) Ariskratioof1.66indicatesthatriskoflungcancerisincreasedby66%intheheavy
drinkinggrouprelativetothenondrinkinggroup.

AsdescribedinChapter3,unit10,aprospectivestudywasconducted:twogroupsofnon
diseasesubjectswereidentifiedandsegregatedbasedontheirdrinkingstatus(exposure).The
subjectswerefollowedupfor10yearsandthediseasestatus(lungcancerYes/No)were
determinedattheendpointofthisstudy.BothRRandORcanbecomputedinprospective
studies.Thefocusofthisquestionisoninterpretationsratherthancalculations.

Notestoinappropriatestatements:
(A) RRisusedtocomparethediseasestatusamongtwoexposuregroups,nottheotherway
around.
(C) Thewordcausesisnotappropriate!Causationcantbedeterminedbysuchan
observationalstudy.
(D) Thedatawerecollectedtomeasuretheassociationbetweenlungcancerandheavy
drinking,notsmokingandheavydrinking.


GER1000 QUANTITATIVE REASONING

WEEK 7: Online Quiz #7

1. For the following two situations, state which of sampling plan was used.
(i) In an opinion poll an airline company made a list of all its flights and
then selected a simple random sample of 30 flights. All of the
passengers on those selected flight were asked to fill out a
questionnaire form.
(ii) A large store wanted to know if consumers would be willing to pay
slightly higher prices to have computers available throughout the
store to help them locate items. The store posted an interviewer at
the door and told her to collect a sample of 100 opinions by asking
the next person who came in the door each time she finished an
interview.

(a) (i) Cluster sampling plan; (ii) Systematic sampling plan


(b) (i) Stratified sampling plan; (ii) Systematic sampling plan
(c) (i) Stratified sampling plan; (ii) Convenience sampling plan
(d) (i) Cluster sampling plan; (ii) Convenience sampling plan

Answer is (d). Sampling plan in (i) is a cluster sampling because for each
selected flight all passengers are asked to fill out the questionnaire form.
Sampling plan in (ii) is a convenience sampling plan because the person
selected is at the convenience of the interviewer.

2. The Research Unit of a company planned to conduct a customer


satisfaction survey. In the working committee meeting, chairman turned to
the consultant that the company hired to conduct the study and said: The
most important question is that how large should the sample size so that
the sample is representative. A few possible answers had gone through
the mind of the consultant and they are given below. Identify which of
them are correct.
(i) As long as the sample size is around 70% of the population size, then the
sample is representative.
(ii) If the proportions of some demographic attributes of the sample are
quite similar to that of the population, then the sample is
representative.

(a) Statement (i) is correct.


(b) Statement (ii) is correct.
(c) Both statements (i) and (ii) are correct.
(d) Both statements (i) and (ii) are incorrect.

Answer is (d). A good sample can be selected only from probability sampling
plan. Large sample size might still produce biased sample. Even if the
proportions of some demographic attributes follows those of the population,
the sampling plan may be non-probability, and hence the sample may still be
biased (i.e. not representative in some other ways).
GER1000 QUANTITATIVE REASONING

WEEK 8: Online Quiz #8

Question 1
(Unit 2)

If you were to toss a fair coin eight times, among the sequences below, which one(s) do you think would
be most likely (i.e. having the largest probability) to occur?

(i) HHHHHHHH, (ii) HHTHTHHT, (iii) HHHHTTTT, (iv) HTTHTHHT

(H denotes tossing a head; T denotes tossing a tail)

(a) (iv)
(b) (iii) and (iv)
(c) (ii), (iii) and (iv)
(d) All are equally likely

Remark: Since one outcome is independent of the others, the probability of getting any of the four
sequences is (1/2)^8.

Question 2
(Unit 3)

Suppose an insurance company charges $800 per year for a certain health insurance policy with a
maximum payout of $20,000 when customer makes a claim. Each year, 3% of the customers submit a
claim. What is the average gain* of the insurance company per customer who buys this policy?

(a) $176
(b) $200
(c) $776
(d) $800

Remark: The average gain of the insurance company is $800 x 0.97 - $(20000 800) x 0.03 = $200
* Here we assume all customers who submit a claim receive maximum payout of $20,000.

Question 3
(Unit 5)

Given that A and B are two dependent events. Let P(A) denotes the probability that A occurs, P(A and B)
the probability that both A and B occur, and P(A|B) the conditional probability that A occurs given B has
occurred.
Choose the most appropriate options below.
(a) P(A and B) is always less than or equal to both P(A|B) and P(A)
(b) P(A and B) and P(A|B) are always less than or equal to P(A)
(c) P(A and B) and P(A) are always less than or equal to P(A|B)
(d) Two of the above options are correct

Remark: Since P(A and B) = P(B)P(A|B) and P(B) is less than or equal to 1, we always have P(A and B) less
than or equal to P(A|B). Similarly, since P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A) and P(B|A) is less than or equal to 1, we
always have P(A and B) less than or equal to both P(A).
However, between P(A) and P(A|B), we cannot tell in general which is larger. The given condition B may
make it more or less likely for A to occur.

Question 4
(Unit 4)

A hypothesis testing is carried out to test whether a certain drug is effective in a population. The
hypothesis is: the drug has no effect in the population. Then the p-value is

(a) the probability that the drug is not effective


(b) the probability that the hypothesis will be rejected
(c) dependent on the level of statistical significance
(d) None of the above

Remark: (a), (b), (c) are common misconceptions about p-value. It is the probability of obtaining an
outcome equal to or more extreme than the observed outcome. This is not equivalent to the
probability that the drug is not effective, or the probability that the hypothesis will be rejected. The
level of statistical significance is used in the hypothesis testing to compare with the p-value, but is not
used in computing the p-value itself.
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