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PART I
Present and future supply of feedstuffs
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CHAPTER 1
Agronomic and political factors
influencing feedstuff use
R.W. Dean
Dean Agricultural Associates, London, UK

In agronomic terms and in the context of the global trading economy, it is

appropriate to look at feedstuffs use for livestock production on a worldwide
basis. Account must be taken of demographic factors such as population
growth and urbanization. Incomes are also a significant determinant of live-
stock product consumption and, thus, the use of feedstuffs. Significant
increases in demand for livestock products, and thus feedstuffs, are predicted in
the early years of the next century, the bulk of which will occur in the develop-
ing world, most notably in China and South-East Asia. Pressures on land use
will emphasize the role of increased crop yields in supplying requisite feed vol-
umes. Declining rates of crop yield increase thus give cause for concern. The
potential of biotechnology in squaring this equation is examined together with
growing political opposition to such techniques. The importance of emphasiz-
ing the role of science in livestock production and feedstuffs usage is stressed1.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

This chapter discusses some of the agronomic and political influences on feed-
stuffs use.
In agronomic terms and in the context of the global trading economy, it is
increasingly appropriate to look at feedstuffs use for livestock production on a
worldwide basis. In addition, there is a need to look at other factors that have
entered the equation in more recent years. These factors apply with particular
force in certain regions of the world.
Agronomic factors to be investigated include cropping area and produc-
tivity. Account must be taken of demographic factors such as population
growth and urbanization. Incomes are also a significant determinant of live-
stock product consumption and, thus, the use of feedstuffs. Nor may cultural
factors be ignored.
It will be shown that political factors are now becoming a significant input
into livestock production systems, particularly in those parts of the western
world rich enough to afford such sentiments.

1This paper was revised and updated in October 2001.

CAB International 2002. Poultry Feedstuffs: Supply, Composition and Nutritive Value
(eds J.M. McNab and K.N. Boorman) 3
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4 R.W. Dean

No attempt is made to generate specific forecasts of feedstuffs usage.

Instead, general indications are given, based on the predicted evolution of the
main factors identified in the agronomic analysis.

FEEDSTUFFS THE WORLD SCENE

It is virtually impossible to quantify all use of livestock feedstuffs on a world-
wide basis.
In the first place, a significant proportion of livestock feeding takes place
outside the purview of the formal economy in the non-commercialized sector.
To some extent, data are not easily accessible even for those feedstuffs pro-
duced on an industrial basis.
In the 2000/01 cereal year, it is estimated that 683 million tonnes of wheat
and coarse grains were used to feed livestock worldwide (USDA FAS, 2001).
This volume represents approximately 47% of wheat and coarse grain usage
for all purposes. Over the past 10 years, use of grain for livestock feed has
increased at an average annual rate of 0.6%.
Use of coarse grains for feedstuffs accounted for 582 million tonnes in the
2000/01 season; approximately two-thirds of all consumption. Over the past 10
years, use of coarse grains in feed has increased by an average of approxi-
mately 0.9% per year. In contrast, just over 100 million tonnes of wheat was
used to feed livestock last season, representing 17% of all wheat consumption.
Since the 19th century, the crushing of oilseeds for human consumption
has yielded a valuable input for livestock production. In the 2000/01 season,
175 million tonnes of oilseed meals were consumed worldwide, of which two-
thirds was soybean meal. Average growth in the consumption of oilseed meals
during the past 7 years has been 3.5%. This highlights the increasingly indus-
trial nature of feedstuffs production as the requirement for higher protein feed
constituents has become apparent, notably in poultry and pig production.

THE EVOLVING PATTERN OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCT

CONSUMPTION

The evolution of large-scale urbanized industrial societies in the west during the
last quarter of the 19th century and the first 75 years of the present century was
characterized by significant increases in the consumption of livestock products.
This has been driven by increases in population and disposable income and by
falls in the real relative price of livestock products.
In traditional societies, meat eating is reserved for ceremonial or festive
occasions and the bulk of both energy and protein nutrition is derived from
foodstuffs of vegetable origin. Such production of livestock as takes place
occurs on a non-commercial basis. Consumption of livestock products is largely
confined to intermediate products such as eggs or milk. The rural nature of
such societies, the inadequacy of a distribution system and the frequent
absence of electricity for essential refrigeration reinforce this.
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Factors influencing feedstuff use 5

In traditional societies, cultural and religious prohibitions also play an

important role in determining patterns of livestock product consumption and
feedstuffs usage. Such prohibitions might or might not be modified along with
the changing social and economic nature of society. They will, however, play
an important role in determining the early shape of such development as does
take place. For example, it is difficult to envisage, certainly in the short to
medium term, the evolution of a successful beef-based livestock product indus-
try in India in those regions where the predominant religious tradition and prac-
tice is Hindu; similar considerations apply to pork in the case of Islam.
Significantly, no society displays obvious significant religious-cultural
restraints on poultrymeat or fish consumption.

CHANGING CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

In recent years, there have been significant changes in the worldwide pattern of
livestock product consumption.
In the developed world, income elasticities of demand for livestock prod-
ucts have fallen sharply. This will be discussed in more detail subsequently, but
the significance of the income variable in the consumption function has dimin-
ished relative to other considerations.
In emerging economies, notably those of Asia and, in particular, China,
demand for livestock products is increasing very rapidly, albeit this process has
been interrupted by economic difficulties since 1996, less so in China than in
Pacific Rim countries. This is a function of, in some but not all cases, expanding
population, rising money incomes and increasing urbanization.
Population growth worldwide appears to have peaked in the late 1960s
when it stood at 2.1% a year. This factor underpinned the Club of Romes
report in 1972 predicting a crisis of Malthusian proportions. This has, so far, not
ensued because of falling rates of population growth and the effects of the
Green Revolution in agricultural production. Longer-term projections from the
United Nations suggest that, for the first 20 years of the next century, popula-
tion growth will average 1.4% annually. This will be divided into 0.4% for the
developed countries and 1.7% for the developing nations. Another source sug-
gests that, from a total of 6 billion in 2000, world population is expected to
grow to 7.5 billion in 2020, equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of
1.1%.
The role of urbanization, as people seek work in cities and towns, is an
important element in determining the demand for livestock products and thus
feedstuffs. In 1960, around 22% of the population of the developing countries
resided in urban areas. By 1980, this figure had increased to 30% (Pinstrup-
Anderson, 1992). One study suggested that, by 2000 and as a result of the
extraordinary growth of industry in China and other Asian countries, urban
dwelling in the developing countries would account for 44% of the population.
In global terms, it has been noted that, during the 20th century, the worlds
population grew from 1.5 billion to 6 billion; the urban population grew from
200 million to around 3 billion, half the total.
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6 R.W. Dean

A number of studies have suggested that urbanization exerts a significant

effect on qualitative food demand. Dietary transitions noted include a move
away from staple crops such as sorghum, maize and millet towards cereals
requiring less preparation time and, significantly, towards livestock products and
other processed foods. Also, significantly, such studies which have been carried
out in Asia note not only a substantial increase in the demand for livestock prod-
ucts but also increased preference for wheat relative to rice (Bouis, 1994).
Urbanization is a by-product of economic growth and, in recent years, eco-
nomic growth as measured by GDP has been significantly greater in the devel-
oping countries, notwithstanding economic disruption in Asia and the
remarkable evolution of the US economy in the 1990s. One author, discussing
long-term projections for Asian economic growth in the early 1990s, com-
mented that the high growth rates in developing countries are projected to
continue in future (Rosegrant et al., 1995). This prediction was not borne out
by events, but there remained little doubt that, once economic stabilization has
been achieved, Asian and other developing countries would resume relatively
high rates of economic growth. This optimism will be moderated by the US
economic slowdown that has already had severe knock-on effects in South-East
Asia, further compounded by the effects of the terrorist outrages in the USA.
The effects of such growth on the demand for livestock products and thus
for feed are, nevertheless, difficult to quantify. Income effects will vary from
country to country. In the developing countries, FAO studies indicate that
income elasticities of demand can range from 0.4 in the case of some of the
more traditional staple crops such as maize to +0.3 for high quality rice and,
for a range of meats, from +0.2 to +0.9.

SATISFYING INCREASED DEMAND FOR LIVESTOCK

PRODUCTS THE INPUT REQUIREMENT
As livestock production becomes more commercialized in response to increased
consumer demand, a major consideration will be the extent to which a particu-
lar country can satisfy increased demand for feedstuffs on its own account and
the extent to which it will have to rely on imports.
Studies indicate that, in the developing countries, price elasticities of supply for
most crops including those for livestock feed are, in general, fairly small (Huang et
al., 1995). This implies that increased agricultural production to feed-growing popu-
lations will depend on autonomous growth in areas cultivated and in the yield per
hectare of cultivated land. A number of factors are relevant here, including public
and private research and development, conventional plant breeding, wide-crossing
and hybridization breeding, biotechnology and the development of supportive infra-
structure such as agricultural extension, markets and the availability of irrigation.
There is widespread agreement that the production increases that charac-
terized the 1960s through to the early 1980s cannot be regarded as typical.
This partly reflects the exhaustion of the Green Revolution effects but it also
reflects other factors, notably the reduced availability of cultivable land and
some serious deficiencies in infrastructure investment, notably in irrigation.
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Factors influencing feedstuff use 7

The area planted worldwide to wheat and coarse grains for the 2000/01
harvest was 514 million hectares; 3.1% less than it was 30 years ago. This
reflects diversion of land to other crops but it is also a by-product of the increas-
ing urbanization of the planet, including the transfer of farm land to industrial
activity and the abandonment of many small-scale farming enterprises; a
process which has not, especially in many developing countries, been accom-
panied by sufficient investment in mechanized agriculture.
Final production in 2000/01 is projected at 1.44 billion tonnes; 49%
greater than 30 years ago. This is due to increased yields per hectare, equiva-
lent over the past three decades to almost 1.5% a year. While this may appear
satisfactory, it is a matter for major concern that the rolling 5-year % increase
in cereal yields, as shown in Fig. 1.1, has been falling since the mid-to-late
1980s. There are a number of reasons for this, which are specific to different
regions of the world. In the developed world, the decline in the growth of
cereal yields per hectare is primarily due to policy measures designed to draw
down cereal stocks and to substitute direct payments to farmers for farm-price
support programmes. In Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, eco-
nomic collapse and subsequent economic reforms further depressed already
low productivity. In developing countries, particularly in Asia, the slow-down
in cereal productivity growth has been a function partly of growing water
shortages and of inadequate public investment, notably in irrigation infrastruc-
ture. There is also, ominously, clear evidence of diminishing returns at work in
that ever-increasing use of fertilizers, water and other inputs are needed to sus-
tain yield gains.

14

12

10
Growth over 5 years (%)

12.9
6
9.7
8.3 8.7
4
6.2

2 4.6

0
1978/79 1983/84 1988/89 1993/94 1998/99 2001/02
Fig. 1.1. Five-year rolling yield increase for wheat and coarse grains.
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8 R.W. Dean

These factors are expected to slow growth in cereal yields worldwide from
1.6% a year in 19821997 to 1.0% a year in 19972020. This is a challenge
that we are going to have to address in the next 20 years or so.
For 30 years, we have relied upon increased yields to provide the world
with the wheat and other grains required to feed humans and livestock. It
needs to be borne in mind, as one distinguished progenitor of the Green
Revolution has pointed out, that observers have tended to focus overly on
high-yielding wheat and rice varieties as if they alone can produce the yield
improvements noted during the 1970s and 1980s. Certainly, modern plant
varieties can uplift yield curves owing to their more efficient plant architecture
and the incorporation of genetic sources of resistance to disease and insect
infestation. However, they can only achieve significantly improved yields over
traditional varieties if systematic changes in crop husbandry are made, such as
in planting dates and rates, fertilizer application, water management, and weed
and pest control. For example, higher soil fertility and greater moisture avail-
ability for growing food crops also raises the potential for the development of
weeds, pests and disease. Complementary improvements in weed, disease and
insect control are thus also required to achieve maximum benefit.
If the potential of the Green Revolution is becoming played out for whatever
reasons, we shall have to look to other means to provide world food and feed
requirements. The debate over transgenic crops is of clear relevance in this context.

EMERGING PATTERNS OF LIVESTOCK CONSUMPTION

The main engine driving the growth of demand for livestock feeds, and thus
feedstuffs use, worldwide in recent years has been the long expansion, during
the 1980s, of livestock product consumption in East Asia and, most notably, in
China. This is not to exclude the effects of increased demand for livestock
products in either the developed world or in Latin America and other emerg-
ing economies.
Between 1994 and 1999, the consumption of poultrymeat rose by 11 mil-
lion tonnes or by over 25%. Over half the additional consumption between
1994 and 1999 took place in Asia where consumption has risen by almost
50%.
These data are remarkable in that they include the period in which the
Asian economies were described, not without a degree of Western schaden-
freude, as in a state of economic meltdown. China is, of course, the dominant
economic entity of Asia. Consumption of poultrymeat in China grew by almost
5 million tonnes or over 70% in the 5-year period. If we look at growth in poul-
trymeat consumption over the period in question, it is evident that most of this
growth occurred in 19941996 before the regions economic difficulties of
1997. For example, Chinese poultrymeat consumption in 1995 grew by 25%,
and then fell progressively to 5% in 1998 and (forecast) 1999. Growth in the
region as a whole in 1995 was 18%; this fell progressively to 3% in 1998 and
was expected to be only 4% in 1999.
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Factors influencing feedstuff use 9

The role of economic growth in determining poultrymeat consumption is,

of course, self-evident. In Brazil, consumption rose by almost a quarter in
1995; in 1998, growth was only 2.5%, reflecting the effects of Brazils eco-
nomic difficulties, but it bounced back in 1999.
Data subsequent to 1999 are not available on a basis that is consistent with
that shown in Table 1.1. The former suggests that poultrymeat consumption
worldwide rose by around 5.57 million tonnes or 10.5% between 1997 and
2000. China recorded an estimated increase of 1.71 million tonnes or almost
16%. Significantly, in the wake of the Asian economic meltdown in
19971998, it was Brazil and Mexico that recorded increases in poultrymeat
consumption in excess of 30% between 1997 and 2000. Less dramatic but sig-
nificant figures show Asia well in the lead in increasing pork consumption
(USDA FAS, 1999). Out of the 6.2 million additional tonnes of pork consumed
between 1994 and 1999, 95% was accounted for by Asian countries, largely
China.

FUTURE AGRONOMIC INFLUENCES ON FEEDSTUFFS

PRODUCTION SUMMARY

In considering the future development of feedstuffs use worldwide, we need to

look at a number of factors.
Primarily, the demand for feedstuffs will reflect demand for livestock prod-
ucts. This will be a function, inter alia, of population and income growth and is
likely to be greatest in the developing countries, notably those of China and
South-East Asia. It cannot be stressed too highly that the development of live-
stock product and thus feedstuffs demand is expected to show high rates of
variation within the developing world. Most simulations suggest that growth in
sub-Saharan Africa and in the Indian subcontinent will be relatively slow.

Table 1.1. Global poultrymeat consumption by region 19941999.

Volume %
change Change
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 199499 199499

Asia 11,215 13,242 14,678 15,646 16,140 16,805 5,590 50

North America 14,259 14,385 14,848 15,145 15,574 16,502 2,243 16
South America 4,196 4,937 4,757 5,227 5,375 5,515 1,319 31
EU 6,829 6,993 7,406 7,412 7,588 7,754 925 14
Middle East 1,178 1,270 1,385 1,598 1,674 1,743 565 48
Africa 1,078 1,193 1,251 1,346 1,416 1,511 433 40
Eastern Europe 811 810 872 935 987 1,004 193 24
Oceania 489 490 493 522 569 586 97 20
Former Soviet Union 2,002 1,968 2,008 2,099 1,737 1,564 438 22
Total 42,057 45,288 47,698 49,930 51,060 52,984 10,927 26

Source: FAS post reports, official statistics, and inter-agency analysis.

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10 R.W. Dean

The extent to which feedstuffs production and usage in the developing world
increases will depend on competition for the available resources of land, labour
and capital. It is, for example, suggested that where land is the main constraint,
farmers may prefer to concentrate on high-value crops for fast-growing urban mar-
kets rather than on feedstuffs production. While production of livestock is expected
to increase in the developing world, it is questionable whether they will produce
requisite feedstuffs themselves or import them. Certainly, most recent studies sug-
gest a substantial net increase in developing countries net imports both of live-
stock products and feedstuffs during the first quarter of the 21st century.
The extent to which yield growth for most cereals has declined in recent
years is of concern because of the pressures being exerted on cultivable land.
Again, this stresses the combined effect of industrial encroachment and inade-
quate investment in infrastructure and irrigation.

CONSUMER POWER

In this section of the chapter, the background to consumption of feedstuffs is

discussed with particular reference to the consumption of livestock products.

The Use of Statistical Method in the Analysis of Consumption

A very generalized form of analysis defined consumption of any product as

follows:
Consumption = Income, Price, Underlying Demand, Dummy Variable, Error
C (1..n) f (Y (1..n),P (1..n),Du (1..n),Vd (1..n), (1..n))
In a collection of papers marking the 50th anniversary of the National
Food Survey, one contributor suggests that each of these variables has in turn
dominated the consumption of livestock products since the end of the Second
World War. Ritson and Hutchins (1991) suggested that post-war food con-
sumption in Britain could be divided into five phases to which the present
author would add a sixth. These are as follows, and are applicable in general
terms to all developed European economies but not to the USA.

19511960 Return to normal diets

With the end of rationing in 1951 and the availability of more plentiful supplies
of food, consumers were enabled to return to what would have been regarded
as a more normal pattern of consumption, given the constraints of prevailing
incomes and prices.

19601970 Income-driven demand

Increasing consumption of livestock products reflected rising real disposable
consumer income. As people felt wealthier, they felt freer to trade up to more
expensive products or to consume more of existing products. This period can
be summed up in Harold Macmillans immortal political slogan for the General
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Factors influencing feedstuff use 11

Election of 1959; Youve Never Had It So Good. Consumption of some more

traditional food products such as canned meats and sausages declined, while
that of fresh meat and poultry as well as cheese increased.

19701980 Price
The 1970s were a disturbed period in post-war UK history. The UK joined the
EU in 1973 and this required a 5-year period of transition to higher EU farm
prices, including those for livestock products. The oil-shock of 1973 caused a
period of rapidly rising world commodity prices. In addition, this was a period
of considerable social unrest, epitomized by the 3-day week following the start
of the miners strike and the two General Elections of 1974; the first fought on
the basis of Who Governs Britain.

19801990 Underlying demand and dummy variables

The Lawson boom of the late 1980s created new patterns of consumption; of
livestock products no less than of Porsches and designer clothing. Part of this
can be described as lifestyle, such as the abandonment of the family lunch on
Sunday and the increased incidence of convenience food and takeaway eating.
A spin-off of the lifestyle effect has been the increasing consumer concern with
healthy eating. This has impacted on milk and butter consumption while ben-
efiting poultry consumption at the expense of the red meats. Dummy variables,
used to represent discrete events such as the Salmonella crisis in 1988, the lead
contamination problem that affected dairy feeds in 1989 and the ongoing BSE
crisis that rumbled on through much of 19891990, finally breaking in full fury
in 1996, assume much greater importance during this period.

Post 1990 The collapse of consumer confidence

There can be little doubt that, in the UK and in Western Europe in general,
consumer confidence in the food they eat has been eroded by succeeding food
scares and a remarkable degree of ineptitude on the part of governments in
the management of those scares.
Only if it is argued that governments are constitutionally incapable of learn-
ing from past mistakes, are the actions of the Belgian government over the
dioxin scandal comprehensible. In the UK, the BSE crisis undermined more
than consumer confidence in beef. The jury may still be said to be out on the
question of who, if anyone, was to blame but, in recent comments about gov-
ernment trustworthiness over GM foods, the BSE saga is often quoted by the
opponents of GM technology to illustrate the non-credibility of the government
and thus, by extension, the credibility of the lobby groups.
It has been a long-standing principle on the part of the feedstuffs industry
that science and scientific method should determine how feedstuffs are used
to feed poultry as in any other form of livestock production. It cannot, how-
ever, be assumed that this principle will, in future, be accepted by consumers
or, at least, by their self-appointed guardians in the consumer and environ-
mental movements.
It must be noted, none the less, that two recent controversies, one non-
food related and the other definitively so, have been sparked off by allegedly
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12 R.W. Dean

scientific evidence which has been used by organizations to create alarm which
has been enthusiastically taken up by the media. The Brent Spar oil platform
controversy pursued by Greenpeace was based on quite erroneous evidence as
to the amount of pollution that would ensue should the platform be sunk, as
originally intended, in deep Atlantic waters. Greenpeace subsequently apolo-
gized to Shell Oil for their misrepresentation of the facts a fact studiously
ignored by most of the media on the grounds that it is the height of political
incorrectness to attack Greenpeace but the damage was done.
The debate over genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is, potentially,
much more critical not just to the feedstuffs industry but to science in general.
The GM controversy it cannot surely be called a debate initiated by the
publication of a letter supporting the cause of Dr Arpad Pusztai of the Rowett
Research Institute, whose work on the effects of GM potatoes, genetically modi-
fied to express a lectin originating in the snowdrop, on the gut of rats has
achieved a certain notoriety. Again, reputable bodies, including the Royal
Society, have questioned the scientific basis of this work. No matter. This hare
has been set running and the feed industry and the livestock industry must face
the unpalatable fact that further factors have entered the Research and
Development equation.
The first is the emergence into positions of prominence of organizations
whose belief in the moral rightness of their cause and it is a moral rightness
because no scientific consideration is involved is comparable with the self-
righteousness of a 17th-century Witchfinder-General or the Dominican-inspired
Inquisition. Governments are in the position, increasingly, of having to defer to
such organizations. Brussels immediate reaction, for example, to the dioxin
scandal was to announce plans to review the list of permitted ingredients and
the schedule of undesirable substances in feedstuffs. Since dioxins are not, as far
as the author is aware, a permitted ingredient in feedstuffs, this response seems
less than relevant. However, it leads to a much more significant general point.
Over the past decade, three controversies have afflicted the livestock indus-
try. These references do not include sporadic outbreaks of Salmonella, E. coli
0157, Campylobacter and Listeria.
For more than a decade, a debate has raged over hormone-based growth
promoters in beef production, largely as a result of a trade dispute with the
USA that permits the use of such substances. Most scientific evidence tends to
support the view that, properly used, such substances pose no danger to either
beef cattle or to human consumers of beef.
Bovine somatotrophin therapy in milk production has been licensed in the
USA. This is a biotechnology product that significantly increases milk produc-
tion. Welfare issues have been raised about its effect on dairy cows; the role of
IGF-1 on human health remains controversial.
The latest controversy over GM foods affects the feedstuffs industry in that
two important raw materials used by the feed industry, maize and soybeans,
are directly affected.
Setting aside, for the moment, the biotechnology-related aspects of bovine
somatotrophin and GM crops, these three areas of dispute are linked by one
common factor. The products are science-generated and the body of fact avail-
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Factors influencing feedstuff use 13

able to us supports the argument for their use at the present time. This does not
mean that we should close the books on further evaluation. Increasingly com-
plex scientific and technical solutions to the problems of the livestock and feed-
stuffs industry will require increasingly complex review procedures. What is also
clear, however, is that a political input will also be required and that the feed-
stuffs industry, increasingly science-based, needs to improve the presentation of
its case. Whether this will be successful is questionable. One aspect of the
debate is, however, eminently arguable. It is said that We do not need these
GM crops. Whether this is so or not, it requires an answer to the question how
are we going to meet the demand for crops to satisfy both human food and
livestock feed demand?. It would be much easier for everyone concerned if
this were a purely agronomic question. Politics is, however, now firmly
entrenched in the debate and that is something that the livestock industry and
its feedstuffs suppliers will fail to address to its own profound disadvantage.

REFERENCES
Bouis, H. (1994) Changing food consumption patterns in Asia and prospects for
improvements in nutrition: Implications for Agricultural Production. Paper pre-
sented at a symposium sponsored by the Asian Productivity Organisation on
Changing Dietary Intake and Food Consumption.
Huang, J., Rosegrant, M.W. and Rozelle, S. (1995) Public Investment, Technological
Change and Reform: a Comprehensive Accounting of Chinese Agricultural Growth.
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.
Pindstrup-Andersen (1992) Global perspectives for food production and consumption.
Tidsskrift for Land Okonomi 4, 145169.
Ritson, C. and Hutchins, R. (1991) The consumption revolution. In: Fifty Years of the
National Food Survey 19401990. HMSO, London.
Rosegrant, M.W., Agcaoili-Sombilla, M. and Perez, N.D. (1995) In: Global Food
Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment. International Food Policy
Research Institute, Washington, DC.
USDA FAS (2001) World Production, Consumption and Trade in Grain (October 2001
update).