Afghanistan Emergency Response Preparedness Review:

January to June 2016

Summary and Recommendations

CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Framework
3. Process
4. Risk rankings
5. Key messages on preparedness actions
6. Recommendations
7. Accompanying documents
1. INTRODUCTION
The Emergency Response Preparedness (ERP) approach was developed by the IASC Task Team on
Preparedness and Resilience to enable the international humanitarian system to apply a proactive approach to
emergency preparedness. Importance is placed on acting on specific early warning indicators to engage in
inter-agency contingency planning and other coordinated preparedness actions to improve collective response
readiness. The purpose of the ERP review is to consolidate the preparedness measures that have already been
put in place, and identify gaps in the response system that need to be addressed. It is intended to be a practical
review that asks and answers a set of critical operational questions. The primary aim of the ERP approach is to
optimize the speed and volume of critical assistance that can be delivered immediately after the onset of a
humanitarian emergency, requiring the concerted action of a number of agencies/organizations.
The content of the review is aligned with the IASC ERP guidance.

2. FRAMEWORK
The ERP approach is a practical, flexible, responsive and resource-light system for understanding and preparing
for potential emergencies. Focusing on large-scale emergencies with multiple actors, the ERP enables readiness
for an immediate in-country response by the broader humanitarian community and in conjunction with national
action, vital in dealing with an unfolding emergency. With a strong base in planning, readiness, knowledge and
understanding of risks, ERP is a guide to preparing for both slow- and sudden-onset crises (other than refugee
crises). It is a continuous process, based on three key elements:

1) Risk Analysis and Monitoring

Risk analysis and monitoring is an ongoing process to ensure clear, common understanding of the risks which
may trigger a crisis significant enough to require a coordinated humanitarian response. Analysis informs the
planning, while monitoring ensure that the process is responsive to emerging risks.

A risk profile identifies and ranks risks according to seriousness. It generates a country risk profile that includes
indicators and triggers that can be monitored using early warning mechanisms and tools. Risk analysis should
identify groups and populations that are particularly vulnerable, and their likely needs after an emergency.

Once a risk profile has been established, monitoring, using indicators and triggers, allows the country team to
assess whether the likelihood of a particular crisis is increasing. Monitoring should detect signs of
deterioration or crisis, making an early response possible. The Risk Profile plus Early Warning monitoring make it
possible to draft a Contingency Response Plan and take related advanced preparedness actions.

2) Minimum Preparedness Actions

Minimum Preparedness Actions (MPA) help to establish a minimum level of emergency preparedness, and
should be undertaken concurrently with developing a risk profile and establishing monitoring systems. MPAs focus
on the main elements of the humanitarian programme cycle (HPC) and identify steps that need to be taken
ahead of time to ensure that the HPC can be implemented effectively if a crisis occurs. MPAs are not specific to

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any particular risk, require minimal resources, and represent the minimum arrangements which need to be in
place ahead of time should any emergency occur.

The MPAs are divided into four categories:

a. Risk Monitoring: should be a continuation of Risk Analysis and Monitoring (ERP element 1), to be
undertaken on a regular basis to keep the preparedness alive to emerging or developing risks;
b. Coordination & Management Arrangements: Clearly defined coordination and accountability
mechanisms to ensure a clear understanding of roles and responsibilities, and appropriate linkages with
government;
c. Needs Assessment, Information Management and Response Monitoring Arrangements:
coordinated needs assessments for common understanding of priority needs, and establishing a system
for response monitoring;
d. Operational Capacity and Arrangements to Delivery Relief and Protection: level of operational
readiness, the minimum level of readiness that should be in place to deliver humanitarian assistance and
protection in principled, accountable manner. Includes response capacity of sector/cluster partners,
availability/location of critical relief items, systems for procurement, transportation and distribution.

3) Advanced Preparedness Actions and Contingency Planning

Advanced Preparedness Actions (APA) are designed to increase the level of readiness in response to a specific
risk or risks. They should be undertaken in conjunction with the development of a Contingency Plan.
Bringing all relevant actors to an advanced level of readiness, a Contingency Plan should be developed
whenever risk profiling indicates a specific risk with potentially catastrophic impact (such as massive conflict
displacement in a provincial capital, such as Kunduz) or risk monitoring suggests an emergency may be imminent.
If an emergency occurs, the CP informs the Situation Analysis, the Strategic Statement, and the Preliminary
Response Plan. One contingency plan is possible if common to a variety of emergencies as many of the
components, actors and responsibilities will remain the same; separate plans are only necessary when a very
different response is required.

Who is involved?
All actors likely to take part in a response are required in ERP planning. The approach is:
Led by Humanitarian Coordinator
Managed by the Humanitarian Country Team
Supported by an inter-cluster/sector coordination group and clusters/sectors
Inclusive of a broad range of actors, including at sub-national level
Supportive of the national authorities, who have primary responsibility for affected people.

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3. PROCESS
The first ERP review in Afghanistan was undertaken from February to March 2016. The national level risk register
for the January to June 2016 period identified conflict displacement and spring flooding as the highest ranked risks
in Afghanistan, which formed the basis for the detailed ERP review process in each region for the same period.

The process has been owned by the Humanitarian Regional Teams (HRT) in each region, supported by OCHA.
In addition to HRT members, invitees included those that best represented the clusters, NGOs, government and
ICRC-ARCS, as key focal points for operational planning.

Tailored tools were developed by region to elicit a capacity assessment, analysis of risk and top line messages on
risks, issues, gaps, and outstanding preparedness actions to be undertaken for both conflict displacement and
spring flooding scenarios. Available trend data for both events were available by province to inform projections of
people affected and geographic areas of concern.

The first stage of the ERP review involved the collation and desk review of the available information, carried-out
by OCHA. The second stage involved five regional workshops as follows:
1. 11 February 2016 Western Region, Hirat
2. 16 February 2016 North and North East Regions, Mazar
3. 15 February 2016 Eastern Region, Jalalabad
4. 18 February 2016 Central, Central Highlands and South East Regions, Kabul
5. 02 March 2016 Southern Region, Kandahar

Workshops were conducted in two phases to achieve the following objectives:

1. Define the capacity of the humanitarian system and resources;
2. Agree on the severity of the risks at the sub-regional level;
3. Identify the gaps within the existing humanitarian response system; and
4. Define and initiate the required preparedness actions.

Phase One:
There are two parts to phase one, involving 1) a high-level capacity assessment, and 2) a provincial level
analysis of the risk. In part 1, the risk and the elements of the humanitarian system was assessed through a
simple rating system, including the number of operational partners and those with operational capacity, and the
estimated number of beneficiaries that can be assisted with food and shelter assistance. In part 2, a review of the
estimated or projected caseloads was undertaken, and vis--vis the response capacity determined in part 1, a
province level assessment of the risk was completed based on the data and trends references. Districts that were
more susceptible to the risk and of greater concern were listed.

Activities included:
i. Verifying and updated 3W information;
ii. Conducting access mapping by province (to be digitized);
iii. Rating access within accessible areas;
iv. Rating pipeline capacity of food and shelter stocks;
v. Projecting displacement and flood affected figures by province (based on trend data);
vi. Ranking the likelihood and impact of each provincial rating, resulting in a risk severity ranking;
vii. Determining the system response capacity to respond in each province;
viii. Highlighting districts of concern to monitor.

Phase Two:
The analysis of Phase One is to be used to inform the inputs to Phase 2. The key outputs from the review are the
top-line messages about the risks, issues and gaps in the existing response system, and the outstanding
preparedness actions that are required to address identified gaps. These messages are meant to be specific
and concise. The preparedness actions should identify who is responsible and specify the date by which the action
needs to be completed. The early warning activities and triggers are distress signals observed at the field level.
If a trigger is reached, what needs to be done? Sector focal points for response were also identified.

Activities included:
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i. Agreeing on a risk outlook for the region;
ii. Identifying gaps and issues relating to: response capacity, access, emergency stocks and logistics;
iii. Agreeing on preparedness actions to be undertaken at the regional/provincial and national level;
iv. Identifying early warning triggers for each event, and agreeing on additional preparedness measures
to be initiated;
v. Updating sector focal points for response.

Inputs were validated by HRTs prior to being processed and consolidated by OCHA, forming the basis for this
summary and accompanying products.

4. RISK RANKINGS
The regional risk analysis process identified hazards that could trigger a crisis and ranked them by impact and
likelihood to provide a severity ranking. The end risk ranking determines whether thresholds are low, medium or high;
advanced preparedness actions and contingency plans are to be considered for those risks ranked medium to high.

The top three, highest ranked at-risk provinces are Kunduz (risk severity ranking of 25), Kabul (20) and Ghazni
(20). In Kunduz, the districts of Archi, Khanabad, Qalaizal, Chardara, Imam Sahib and some parts of Kunduz were
identified as of concern. In Kabul, Kabul city and Bagrami and Dehsabz are districts highly populated with IDPs; the
spring offensive is expected to cause further deterioration as IDPs will increasingly come to Kabul (particularly from
the North and East) as one of the last stable locations. In Ghazni, Andar and Nawa districts are of concern with Nawa
totally under NSAG control and conflict in Andar causing displacement to Ghazni city.

Seven additional provinces were all ranked medium (16), including: Badghis, Farah, Hirat, Nangarhar, Paktika,
Hilmand and Baghlan. Refer to ERP regional review documents for detailed ranking calculations and justifications.

5. KEY MESSAGES ON PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

The following key messages relating to recommended preparedness actions have been consolidated from all
regional workshops. Actions have been grouped into nine thematic areas to ease review, while key messages by
region and event type (conflict/flooding) can be referenced in the ERP regional review documents. Allocation of
actions to HRTs, ICCT and HCT will be completed as part of the work planning process.

Partners
Conduct mapping of displacement response partners and gauge response capacity, keeping them engaged
on displacement trends, priorities and response preparedness
Improve 3W and response tracking to ensure agency commitments are followed through as per identified
priority needs
Map additional partners that could respond to IDPs (e.g. IMC which has large reach as BPHS implementer
in the East)
Resource mobilization to enable additional partners to respond to conflict IDPs
Resource mobilization/efforts to support more NNGOs to respond to conflict IDPs, as they have greater
access and acceptance

Access
Enhancement of access at the lowest point, establishing key contacts and maintaining constant liaison that
will ease access to priority areas in the time of need
Ensure continuous engagement with Civil Military Coordination
Government interference issue to be raised & addressed at provincial government by IDP coordination
agency/ OCHA (Southern Region)
Support for local level access engagements and innovative access strategies to emerging priority areas
Donor advocacy to increase funding to enable expansion of access in currently inaccessible/uncovered
districts
Access Advisory Group (AAG) to support downward operational guidance regarding prolonged access
issues (such as closure of schools and health facilities in ER).
Follow up with the relevant Government officials in order to avoid the intervention of ALP and other political
organizations in humanitarian assistance.
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Stockpiles & Logistics

Stocking and monitoring of stock position of key humanitarian supplies.
Prepositioning of key supplies in the priority districts
Inter-agency warehousing capacity in strategic locations for pre-positioning (e.g. Nuristan).
Improve available complimentary stocks
FSAC cluster and WFP consider to preposition sufficient foods in Nili (Daykundi)
All humanitarian partners to share updated list of stocks
Advocating and maintaining the resourcing capacity to enhance flexible and timely restocking of emergency
lifesaving supplies to regions with priority needs
Clarify air drop capacity when areas inaccessible (e.g. Nuristan to other side of mountain)
Develop MoU for transportation of humanitarian assistance to disaster affected community in insecure areas
Government to share information about their emergency stocks
HRT/clusters to mobilize the needed stock in advance
ES/NFI and FSAC support at country level for food and logistical support (South East)
Decentralization of stocks and authorizations should be discussed at national level to accelerate assessment
and response process

Standards/SOPs
Review SOPs/sensitize government to avoid wasting time on assessment and allocation of caseloads
Share minimum packages list (standard) for NFIs, food and shelter
Improved sensitization of national emergency SOPs and IDP Policy to ensure ANDMA takes lead role, and
to encourage government to respond to small caseloads
Harmonization of shelter design for flood affected people (Northern region)

Capacity, Coordination & Architecture

Ensure functionality of PDMC, HRT, OCTs and Clusters
Increase the frequency of coordination meetings
Surge capacity may be required where there are sudden crisis of Kunduz magnitude
Continued strengthening of ANDMA/DoRR for effective response capacity. Clarity of their roles very
important
Improve ANDMA resources/emergency fund for all provinces
Accelerate signing of agreement regarding request to WFP for release of food to respond to conflict IDPs
Provision of surge support by national structures (NDMC, HCT, ICCT) in case of large scale emergencies
National ANDMA to consider ANDMA Daykundi under staffing issue to be addressed to National ANDMA
(Central Highlands)
Development of National Guideline to communicate and advise provincial department heads to contribute
actively in disaster related assessment and response
Decentralize decision making regarding response to regional level
Follow up with Government to identify the main accountable governmental agency for IDP issues
Provincial Governors and line ministries to regularize and standardize PDMC meetings and allocate sufficient
resources for emergency response
OCHA & partners to broaden contacts/ networks to the district level
Ensuring on functionality of OCT/PDMC at the provincial level
National ANDMA to look at restoring of government capacity in Daykundi mainly to accelerate the recruitment
process for ANDMA staffing and building up the technical capacity for coordination in the province (Central
Region)
GoA low capacity and cooperation issue to be addressed at ministry level

Contingency Planning
Develop conflict induced displacement contingency plan (Regional/Provincial) recommendation for PDMC/
OCT / HRT to complete this
Develop Flood Contingency Plan at regional and provincial levels
Government & other DRR programs should focus more on high flood affected areas

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Assessments
Harmonized assessment tool usable by all the key humanitarian partners in conflict displacements situation
Developing a comprehensive household assessment tool, especially a shorter / simple questionnaire to
collect the required information easily and timely
Development of common multi-agency assessment tool and information management (RAF not used by all)
A consolidated/ single assessment tool should be created
Agreement on common assessment tool for floods (the revised version of RAF) by all partners
Alert ARCS to focus on needs assessment in areas out of UN and NGOs control
Summarize assessment report including initial information (number & needs) of population displaced to be
shared soon after completion of assessment
Joint assessment team to do surveillance of conflict IDPs during natural disaster incidents

Programming
Increase use of cash based programming for response to limit reliance on burdensome pre-positioning and
transportation of supplies

Early Warning
Strengthening the robust early warning systems on fresh displacements, assessments, coordination,
response preparedness and subsequent responses
Strengthen flood early warning system
Areas with high flooding threats should be mapped and shared with donors to implement DRR projects as a
permanent solution

6. RECOMMENDATIONS
While the HCT should prioritize the most pressing minimum preparedness actions to implement first, the following
are recommended based on priorities identified in recent ICCT and HCT meetings, and following lessons learning
discussions relating to the Kunduz displacement crisis and October 2015 earthquake. Recommended immediate
actions are based on the four MPA categories as outlined in the Framework section above:

a. Risk Monitoring
i. Conduct national level risk analysis and ranking to start preparedness actions for imminent risks;
review districts of concern as per regional workshops. Involve all stakeholders, including national
authorities.
ii. Monthly updating of districts of concern and access mapping, as provided by HRTs
iii. Weekly monitoring of triggers, as identified by HRTs
iv. Heightened preparedness actions associated with local crisis triggers identified at regional level
v. Review and prioritize national MPAs; consider inter-agency contingency planning for highest
ranked risks (e.g. large-scale conflict displacement incident, such as Kunduz, Farah, Lashkar Gah)
vi. Ensure monitoring updates are standing agenda item on ICCT and HCT agendas
b. Coordination & Management Arrangements
i. HCT to endorse process to roll out full proposed ERP work plan, including agreement to establish
Emergency Management structure and appropriate governance mechanism in Afghanistan
ii. Convene Emergency Management inter-agency project steering committee to develop EM system
components and sub-work plans
iii. Convene core HCT/UN emergency response operations management team, with communications
processes agreed
iv. UN/Government coordination mechanisms clarified (e.g. One UN representation at NDMC)
v. Agree on coordination mechanisms for priority risk scenarios and ensure inclusion of GoIRA
structures, civil society and donors
vi. Identify Stay and Deliver partners to ensure alternative coordination arrangements in each
province/region
vii. Establish channels of communication with potential non-government interlocutors to enable
access and response in districts/provinces of concern
c. Needs Assessment, Information Management and Response Monitoring Arrangements
i. Agreement on harmonized assessment tool (household level) and consider tool for use at scale
in event of mass displacement (e.g. simplified RAF)
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ii. Roll out and training on use of agreed tool including the process of coordinated assessments and
principles of a coordinated response
iii. Finalize inter-agency assessment tools and methodology, including household level tool
(conflict/ND) and RAF revision (mass displacement), selection criteria; obtain endorsement and
rollout to all partners
d. Operational Capacity and Arrangements to Delivery Relief and Protection
i. Review key issues and gaps as collated through regional ERP workshops to prioritize most
pressing operational gaps to address (e.g. standardize relief packages, increase use of cash
transfer programming, supply chain requirement considerations)

Kindly refer to the attached draft ERP work plan which has been developed according to the ERP guidance.

7. ACCOMPANYING DOCUMENTS
i. Summary tables of risk outlooks, gaps/issues, sector focal points and draft work plan (Excel file)
ii. Overview of Humanitarian Response Capacity (map product)
iii. Overview of the Conflict Displacement Risk (map product)
iv. Projected Caseloads (Flood Affected & Conflict Displaced)

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