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On Bloomberg: CCSR
10 September 2014
Electricity Rating: Overweight
Address: 50 Alkots Street, Budapest H-1123 Phone: +36 1 489 2200 Fax: +36 1 489 2201 www.concordesecurities.hu
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Electricity price reached the lowest historical level of the last 5 years in March 2014
at the price 34 EUR/MWh. Thanks to CEZs successful hedging strategy, the
company sold energy over the average market price almost in every year since 2009
and there was a particularly great deal in 2013 when it has sold out all electricity with
more than 30% upside. We assume that the company has to adapt to the new
extremely low market price which means that the spread between the realized and
the average price will not be so high in the future than it was before. On the other
hand, we continue to believe that the company will find the way to hedge over the
average. CEZs usual practice is to hedge approximately 80-85% of the power till the
third month of the ongoing year, and hedge approximately 50% for the next, 20% for
the 2nd year, and 10% for the 3rd year. In the light of this practice, we identified that
82% of the power has sold at the price at 39.5 EUR/MWh for 2015, and 54% of the
amount of 2016 is sold at 36.5 EUR/MWh which delimits the companys
opportunities but gives a shield against the main potential risk of the business.
In general, there are five main predictor which are driving baseload price. We
identified the correlation between these drivers [Appendix 3] and it has brighten up
unsurprisingly that the correlation between coal and electricity price is robust at
0.704 but European gas price seems to be also a great component with the
correlation of 0.763. Last but not least, the relation between electricity price and CO2
allowance price is also significant but not as much as the other two were, it is
significant at 0.41. All in all, if we try to forecast electricity price with this bottom-up
method, it is beneficial to check the trend of coal and Europe gas. [Appendix 2]
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Currently, coal price is at the level of the coalmines break-even point with the price
of 80 USD/MT. CO2 allowance price had an extremely huge strike down from 18
EUR/MT to almost 3 EUR/MT. In the light of this the current CO2 price at 6.3
EUR/MT seems to be deeply cheap. Dutch gas price looks very stable since 2010,
with a few micro turbulence, at an average level of 24.6 EUR/MWh. We have to
highlight that in the current global political situation might have an impact to
Netherlands gas price. Strictly speaking, if Russian export stops, the European gas
price have to rise in the short term. In our view, this risk factor is not so relevant
temporary, because in case of rising gas price the market would switch to using the
coal plants hence the impact of high gas price will not be prevailed in the price of
electricity.
With the knowledge of these market trends, our forecast for realized baseload
electricity price is that the German baseload electricity price will be more or less flat
in the next years, and will rise roughly after 2017. In numbers, this means 38
EUR/MWh in 2016, 39 EUR/MWh in 2017, in 40 EUR/MWh in 2018. Bloombergs
forecast [Appendix 3] predicts lower baseload price on average than our forecast but
it also came to light that there might be periods, months where prices will be above
the average with a maximum between 38 and 41 EUR/MWh, thus we believe that
CEZs will catch these peaks in the future too like it did before.
We assume, that the amount of electricity sold will not be lower than 55.3 TWh but
will not exceed the level of 56 TWh in near future. This indicator is influenced by four
main factors, namely the weather of the country where the renewable power plants
have built up, the installed capacity, generation gross and the utilization. As it can be
seen in Appendix 2, the weather in 2014 was extremely warm, which accurately
means that there was not a month when the average temperature was below 0
degree. In general, this trend seems to be almost the same in Bulgaria and Romania,
the warmer winter, the lower electricity consumption, and lower level of production
from the renewable plants. We could not verify that there is a stronger than 0.2
correlation between historical average temperature and CEZs price or between the
average weather and the German baseload price, though one knows that there
should be a positive influence between the indicators.
CEZ has one of the richest portfolio of energy sources in Europe which gives a great
opportunity to optimize the generation in those times when the electricity market
demand is low. This opportunity gives the chance to turn off temporary the gas or
coal power plants, meanwhile nuclear and the renewable sources meet the demand.
The total installed capacity of the company reached the level of 14.2 GW in 2009 and
grew by 6% at 15.1 GW till the end of 2013 1.[Appendix 4] In 2013, the portfolio mix
built up 35% Lignite, 28% Nuclear, 19% black coal and 18% renewable installed
capacity. Obviously, the efficiency of the sources are different, hence the generation
gross were 46% nuclear, 38% lignite, 8% black coal and only 8% of renewable.
The CAPEX program of the company which will end in 2017, have not focused on the
generation segment so much like it did before which means that the amount of
invested capital decreased from 65% (in 2009) to 44% (in 2013). In April 2014, CEZ
cancelled a tender for a $15 billion plan to build two new reactors at its Temelin
nuclear power station after the government refused to provide guarantees on power
purchase prices. Based on these informations, we forecast that there will not be
significant increase in the generation gross, utilization indicators in the near future in
normal conditions. The main chance to grow the capacity level notably is the M&A
opportunity of ENELs Slovakian stake.
Our current macro forecast for CZK/EUR exchange rate is between 25.8 and 27.4.
The distribution segment has a huge impact to the total revenue of CEZs therefore it
is an absolute necessity to find a great proxy to forecast this segment. We estimated
RAB growth to calculate the revenue of the distribution segment. In general, if the
CAPEX, which has spent to the distribution segment is growing quicker than the
depreciation the total amount of the RAB will growth therefore the allowed return will
grow as well. Due to CEZs CAPEX plan and our depreciation forecast we evaluated
a 0.7% RAB growth for 2014, which is a huge back step compared to earlier years,
mainly due to the lower CAPEX intensity. Subsequently, the RAB growth should
reach an optimal level of 4.3-5.5% on a yearly base.
1
Temelin ended outage of the first unit a few days ago. Thanks to modernisation, its output should be raised by 2 percent and
reach a record 1,078 MWe. Before the outage, the first units output was 1,056 MWe. Source: Bloomberg
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Valuation
Based on the key proxies above, our revenue forecast is CZK 210.5 billion for 2014
and CZK 209.2 in 2015, afterwards we forecast a greater growth in revenue, which
can be seen in the appendix. CEZs geographical revenue breakdown shows that
almost 80% of the revenue comes from the Czech Republic, 10% from Bulgaria
and and other 10% from the other countries where the company operates. The
main part of the revenue (66%) comes from the ditribution segment but the
distribution is only 29% of the total net income of the company. In contrast with
this, the component of the generation sector in the revenue is only 30% but almost
60% in the net income. In light of the earnings structure such as this, it is not
surprising why the company is so sensitive to the ups and downs of the power
price.
CEZ has a long-term competitive advantage of low and relatively stable generation
costs, mainly thanks to the two nuclear power plants and the coal power plants
which are using lignite from CEZs own mines. On the other hand, in the current
market condition, a company, which operates with mostly variable costs, for
example use only fuel based sources, benefits from the low carbon price and
achieve a greater spread than CEZ does. All in all, we point out to the same
conclusion, the higher electricity price the greater for CEZ. We forecast a 71 billion
EBITDA for 2014 which is almost line with CEZs EBITDA guidance at CZK 70.5
billion. Our net income forecast for 2014 is 29.7 billion roughly in line with the
guidance at CZK 29 billion. For 2015 we forecast CZK 61.8 billion EBITDA and a
CZK 20.9 billion net income but afterwards we prognose greater values.
We calculated risk free rate for the forecast period using the Czech forward curve
matrix to reflect the current low interest rate environments, and used the 10 year
government bond for the terminal period. Our cost of equity calculation is around 5
and 6% much above the cost of debt level at 1-2%. To sum up the discount factor
calculation, our WACC is between 3.7% and 4.2% for the examined period, and
4.7% to the terminal. We calculate with a 0.5% terminal growth rate due to our
growth vision of the company.
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Based on our valuation, we have found solid unpriced opportunities in the company
which is willing to develop despite the gloomy electricity market environment. Thus,
we maintain our positive long term view and give an Overweight recommendation for
2014 end with a new TP of CZK 700, which means a 12% upside.
The CZK/EUR exchange rate up or down also change the TP strongly. The
temporary price of 27.6 seems to be an optimistic price in our current macro view
and in the long term we calculated with a more conservative, pessimistic number of
25-27 CZK/EUR. We also made it visible in the Appendix how the target price
changes if the value of sold electricity grows, due to a new CAPEX program, or to
the two new reactors at Temelin nuclear power station which were postponed in
April.
TARGET PRICE SENSITIVITY: 10Y CZECH GOV. BOND VS. GROWTH RATE
We believe it is also very important to see how the value of the asset will change if
the current low-interest market structure ends in the Czech Republic which of
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course influence the companys debt structure and the WACC level. With the
current long return of 1.5% the market priced an almost 0% growing potential in
the company. We believe this rate have to be more than 0.5% now and might
increase rapidly after the M&A.
On the other side of the deal, CEZ has held off on making major acquisitions in the
recent year mainly thank to the poor range of targets but also because of the gloomy
foreign investment history of the company. CEZ also canceled the tender of the two
new Temelin nuclear reactor which means in that case that the company spare
capital for the acquisition. The companys Net debt/Ebitda ratio is one of the lowest
in the segment at 2.4, which gives a great opportunity to finance a part of the
transaction from debt.
If the company finance a great part of the acquisition from its earnings the bid
might affect strongly CEZs ability to pay dividends, which is an important source of
income for the Czech state budget, and may concern Finance Ministry the major
shareholder of the company [Appendix 6].
All in all, SE is the perfect target for CEZ in every aspect, merger would make a great
amount of synergies. Now that there is greater clarity on the investment target the
one and only question the bid price which might destroy this idyllic growth story.
2
Source: Bloomberg
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VALUATION
2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
P/E 9.4 11.3 16.1 18.4 16.4 14.5
P/CF 6.0 5.3 5.9 6.2 5.9 5.6
P/BV 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1
EV/sales 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1
EV/EBITDA 7.0 7.3 8.4 8.7 8.0 7.3
Dividend yield (%) 6.3% 5.1% 3.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8%
FCF yield (%) 8.5% 5.9% 7.5% 6.9% 8.3% 8.6%
MARGINS (%)
2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
EBITDA margin 33.9% 33.7% 29.5% 27.8% 28.1% 28.6%
Operating margin 21.1% 19.7% 14.6% 12.7% 13.3% 14.1%
Net profit margin 16.5% 14.1% 10.0% 8.6% 9.3% 10.1%
Source: Bloomberg
TARGET PRICE SENSITIVITY: 10Y CZECH GOV. BOND VS. GROWTH RATE
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